Beyond the Cusp

March 1, 2015

P5+1 and Iran Six Month Working Nuclear Agreement

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While rummaging through the news online, in my e-mails and the various other eye-straining sources which have taken near complete control of what is otherwise a retirement in heaven I came across, much to my surprise, and transcript from CNN reputing to be of the soon to be completed next step in the Iran nuclear program negotiations with the P5+1. What is perhaps the biggest surprise was the qualifier that this agreement is only good for the next six months beyond its signing date by which time a fully flushed out agreement is expected to be ready to present for the final agreement signing ceremony. I am not entirely sure if this makes our former prediction that there would not be another extension of the negotiations as the parties are not calling this an extension though it really feels a lot like the former six month extensions even if this presents an original agreement framework which they claim requires some additional tweaks, definitions, additions and alterations. There are plenty of mentions of which sanctions will be terminated, what funds which will be released, what items shall be placed beyond the influences or hands of the world even should the talks collapse before the final completed agreement is molded, twisted, mutilated and otherwise tortured into existence. Now for the spoiler but I am afraid this is necessary, there is one particular stipulation in this agreement which should send chills up and down any concerned individual’s spine as it sets up a situation which is completely unconscionable for any United States President or any of the President’s advisors, Cabinet Secretaries or other Administrations personnel from remaining a member of the government of any United States President who would approve and sign such a stipulation. Here is that singular stipulation.

“The U.S. Administration, acting consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Congress, will refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.”

With such a restriction in place there is no longer anything for the Iranians to fear henceforth into the future even should the supposed fleshed out version will never be produced as this extends complete immunity into the future without any mitigating factor or exception into perpetuity as far as we can tell. This sentence being included is such an insult to the Congress that any President agreeing to its inclusion and or Secretary of State, negotiating team member or advisors of the President or Secretary of State not demanding this be removed or they will remove themselves from their service in this shameful Administration are displaying a contemptible disrespect to the Congress and the American people. But anyone who has followed this fiasco from its inception under the watchful eye of President Obama has likely realized long ago that the main principle of the negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran, especially since President Obama and his Secretary of State and State Department took command to direct the negotiations the apparent aim has been to drag the negotiations out while protecting Iran from any military option being implemented against their nuclear sites even releasing confidential communications informing the White House of intent to mount a military resolution to prevent Iran attaining breakout conditions or worse, actual nuclear weapons production, only to have their plans or preparations leaked to the media often embarrassing those allied to take such measures and destroying their plans forcing the cancellation of such previously secret preparations and alliances. This stipulation in the agreement being proffered will permanently remove the United States from any efforts to prevent Iran from reaching the breakout point to industrial production of nuclear weapons allowing their building a nuclear arsenal.

 

Much of the remainder of what I interpreted from my reading it once through was that where the United States and likely the rest of the western world which relies on the United States in most military matters and would be incapable for launching a preemptive strike completely on their own will now face an Iranian enrichment industry which will only be restricted from full industrial uranium enrichment will face a United States handcuffed from taking meaningful actions. In return for the United States handcuffing itself Iran has promised to restrict their nuclear program and for the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) to inspect and verify that the Iranians remain committed to and restricted by their promises demanded from this framework, and remember it is actually just that, a framework. Like a framework of a house, skyscraper, bridge, or any construction, there are gaping spaces throughout the structure which allow for things to pass through, in, out and around without much resistance or impediments. The one item we all can be completely assured about is that Iran will test and utilize every last gap in the framework to get around limitations and discomforts which might impinge on their attaining sufficient amounts of unaccounted for LEU (low enriched uranium) which would provide them with the starter uranium to produce as many as a dozen nuclear devices within six to nine months as long as they are careful and plan the times for inspections and provide the right formulas and predicted yields to the IAEA thus permitting their skimming off of a relatively significant amount of LEU over the period of a year or two.

 

Many believe that the IAEA inspections are very strict and intense thus making cheating nearly impossible. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The IAEA inspectors rely on the nation they are assigned to inspect to provide then with the information about their operations in enriching uranium including the levels intended, the amounts of ore will be used to produce yellowcake (uranium hexafluoride UF6), how much additional yellowcake they will import and the expected yields from their enrichment. To give an idea of how far off the predictions can be, in 2009 Iran “miscalculated” in their reports to the IAEA which underestimated their production and actually over-producing their estimates by over thirty percent. Imagine how quickly a clandestine series of cascaded centrifuges stashed in an underground hidden location that Iran could be producing nuclear weapons while appearing for intents and purposes to be honestly keeping all of their promises and nobody would be the wiser until time had run out and Iran has their nuclear arsenal and joined the nuclear club. There have been reports that the most recent series of centrifuges Iran is producing themselves are so far productive and superior to their earlier centrifuges that they are now capable of taking even LEU at five percent can be enriched to weapons grade in a manner similar to what they used to be capable of performing only with twenty-percent enriched uranium previously. The other main item that needs to be spread is that this agreement only is enforceable for six months and should no further deal be patched together it will likely mean the end of negotiations without any deal, the end to IAEA inspections, the termination of any Iranian cooperation and Iran attaining breakout nuclear capabilities within the ensuing year to year and a half. As horrific as such a predicament might be the ensuing consequences would be unthinkable.

 

The immediate consequences to an Iranian nuclear bomb would be daunting enough as it would make the many allied terror groups such as Hezballah, Hamas and other such entities mostly under the indirect control of the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) and span the globe come under the nuclear umbrella from Iran and thus having free hands to spread terror attacks without worry. The long-range ramification would be the immediate nuclear arms race across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt leading the charge. There would be pressures in Israel to reinitiate their nuclear program, assuming they ever had one which they have never officially admitted. Eventually the nuclear arms race in MENA would spread to the nations of Europe and South America as well as potentially the remainder of Africa thus tearing so many holes in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Member nations would be announcing their intent to leave the treaty and many unlikely to even wait the prescribed period before launching full-speed into producing nuclear weapons. They would drop faster than the leaves of autumn caught by the winds of a hurricane drop from their trees, and with a similar speed are heading towards nuclear weapons. Imagine a world where every border dispute, every insulted leader, every old rivalry or almost any slight or offence setting off a standoff and posturing between two recently nuclear armed nations who might not reflect sufficiently on the consequences of using nuclear weapons or expecting that their first strike would sufficiently harm their adversary that they would be incapable of making a response, an underestimation of the desire for revenge more than likely. This agreement could very well be regarded by history as the jumping off point which led the whole world within the most minute of distances from entering a post-apocalyptic world as depicted in too many movies. Read the agreement and let us know where you feel it may lead and what should be done and by whom, it might prove interesting. Below is the framework, framework, I am beginning to hate that word.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

 

This transcript c/o CNN online.

Geneva, 24 November 2013

Joint Plan of Action

Preamble

The goal for these negotiations is to reach a mutually-agreed long-term comprehensive solution that would ensure Iran’s nuclear programme will be exclusively peaceful. Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek or develop any nuclear weapons. This comprehensive solution would build on these initial measures and result in a final step for a period to be agreed upon and the resolution of concerns. This comprehensive solution would enable Iran to fully enjoy its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the relevant articles of the NPT in conformity with its obligations therein. This comprehensive solution would involve a mutually defined enrichment programme with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the peaceful nature of the programme. This comprehensive solution would constitute an integrated whole where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. This comprehensive solution would involve a reciprocal, step-by-step process, and would produce the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions, as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme.

There would be additional steps in between the initial measures and the final step, including, among other things, addressing the UN Security Council resolutions, with a view toward bringing to a satisfactory conclusion the UN Security Council’s consideration of this matter. The E3+3 and Iran will be responsible for conclusion and implementation of mutual near-term measures and the comprehensive solution in good faith. A Joint Commission of E3/EU+3 and Iran will be established to monitor the implementation of the near-term measures and address issues that may arise, with the IAEA responsible for verification of nuclear-related measures. The Joint Commission will work with the IAEA to facilitate resolution of past and present issues of concern.

Elements of a first step

The first step would be time-bound, with a duration of 6 months, and renewable by mutual consent, during which all parties will work to maintain a constructive atmosphere for negotiations in good faith.
Iran would undertake the following voluntary measures:

  • • From the existing uranium enriched to 20%, retain half as working stock of 20% oxide for fabrication of fuel for the TRR. Dilute the remaining 20% UF6 to no more than 5%. No reconversion line.
    • Iran announces that it will not enrich uranium over 5% for the duration of the 6 months.
    • Iran announces that it will not make any further advances of its activities at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant , Fordow or the Arak reactor designated by the IAEA as IR-40.•
    • Beginning when the line for conversion of UF6 enriched up to 5% to UO2 is ready, Iran has decided to convert to oxide UF6 newly enriched up to 5% during the 6 month period, as provided in the operational schedule of the conversion plant declared to the IAEA.•
    • No new locations for the enrichment.
    • Iran will continue its safeguarded R&D practices, including its current enrichment R&D practices, which are not designed for accumulation of the enriched uranium.
    • No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.
    • Enhanced monitoring:o Provision of specified information to the IAEA, including information on Iran’s plans for nuclear facilities, a description of each building on each nuclear site, a description of the scale of operations for each location engaged in specified nuclear activities, information on uranium mines and mills, and information on source material. This information would be provided within three months of the adoption of these measures.
    o Submission of an updated DIQ for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40, to the IAEA.
    o Steps to agree with the IAEA on conclusion of the Safeguards Approach for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40. Daily IAEA inspector access when inspectors are not present for the purpose of Design Information Verification, Interim Inventory Verification, Physical Inventory Verification, and unannounced inspections, for the purpose of access to offline surveillance records, at Fordow and Natanz.
    o IAEA inspector managed access to:
     centrifuge assembly workshops ;
     centrifuge rotor production workshops and storage facilities; and,
     uranium mines and mills.

    In return, the E3/EU+3 would undertake the following voluntary measures:
  •  Pause efforts to further reduce Iran’s crude oil sales, enabling Iran’s current customers to purchase their current average amounts of crude oil. Enable the repatriation of an agreed amount of revenue held abroad. For such oil sales, suspend the EU and U.S. sanctions on associated insurance and transportation services.
     Suspend U.S. and EU sanctions on:
    o Iran’s petrochemical exports, as well as sanctions on associated services.
    o Gold and precious metals, as well as sanctions on associated services.
     Suspend U.S. sanctions on Iran’s auto industry, as well as sanctions on associated services.
     License the supply and installation in Iran of spare parts for safety of flight for Iranian civil aviation and associated services. License safety related inspections and repairs in Iran as well as associated services.
     No new nuclear-related UN Security Council sanctions.
     No new EU nuclear-related sanctions.
     The U.S. Administration, acting consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Congress, will refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.
     Establish a financial channel to facilitate humanitarian trade for Iran’s domestic needs using Iranian oil revenues held abroad. Humanitarian trade would be defined as transactions involving food and agricultural products, medicine, medical devices, and medical expenses incurred abroad. This channel would involve specified foreign banks and non-designated Iranian banks to be defined when establishing the channel.
    o This channel could also enable:
     transactions required to pay Iran’s UN obligations; and,
     direct tuition payments to universities and colleges for Iranian students studying abroad, up to an agreed amount for the six month period.
     Increase the EU authorisation thresholds for transactions for non-sanctioned trade to an agreed amount.

Elements of the final step of a comprehensive solution

The final step of a comprehensive solution, which the parties aim to conclude negotiating and commence implementing no more than one year after the adoption of this document, would:

  •  Have a specified long-term duration to be agreed upon.
     Reflect the rights and obligations of parties to the NPT and IAEA SafeguardsAgreements.
     Comprehensively lift UN Security Council, multilateral and national nuclear-related sanctions, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy, on a schedule to be agreed upon.
     Involve a mutually defined enrichment programme with mutually agreed parameters consistent with practical needs, with agreed limits on scope and level of enrichment activities, capacity, where it is carried out, and stocks of enriched uranium, for a period to be agreed upon.
     Fully resolve concerns related to the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40. No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.
     Fully implement the agreed transparency measures and enhanced monitoring. Ratify and implement the Additional Protocol, consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Majlis (Iranian parliament).
     Include international civil nuclear cooperation, including among others, on acquiring modern light water power and research reactors and associated equipment, and the supply of modern nuclear fuel as well as agreed R&D practices.
    Following successful implementation of the final step of the comprehensive solution for its full duration, the Iranian nuclear programme will be treated in the same manner as that of any non-nuclear weapon state party to the NPT.

____________________________________________________

 

i) Namely, during the 6 months, Iran will not feed UF6 into the centrifuges installed but not enriching uranium. Not install additional centrifuges. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.

ii) At Fordow, no further enrichment over 5% at 4 cascades now enriching uranium, and not increase enrichment capacity. Not feed UF6 into the other 12 cascades, which would remain in a non-operative state. No interconnections between cascades. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.

iii) Iran announces on concerns related to the construction of the reactor at Arak that for 6 months it will not commission the reactor or transfer fuel or heavy water to the reactor site and will not test additional fuel or produce more fuel for the reactor or install remaining components.

iv) Consistent with its plans, Iran’s centrifuge production during the 6 months will be dedicated to replace damaged machines.

v) “Sanctions on associated services” means any service, such as insurance, transportation, or financial, subject to the underlying U.S. or EU sanctions applicable, insofar as each service is related to the underlying sanction and required to facilitate the desired transactions. These services could involve any non-designated Iranian entities.

vi) Sanctions relief could involve any non-designated Iranian airlines as well as Iran Air.

vii) With respect to the final step and any steps in between, the standard principle that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” applies.

 

 

February 28, 2015

Netanyahu Speech Coming Tuesday to be THE Speech

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Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to give his speech to those of the entire Congress with the backbone and wits to attend what President Obama, his administration, the leftist politicians in the United States, and most embarrassing, leftist politicians in Israel and is willing to withstand the withering barrage from the leftist media which will hopefully be easily over four-hundred-seventy-five who sit through the entire speech. There is planned a show of great lack of significance to show disregard and insult for Prime Minister Netanyahu arranged by the Congressional Black Caucus who decided their ire would be best served if they interrupted THE Speech by noticeably walking out in the midst of THE Speech as a sign of the racist nature of THE Speech. The media has harped on THE Speech claiming it is designed to destroy the United States Israel relations as if President Obama’s wrecking-ball relations and operational leaks of presumed privileged communications had not already set the stage for a mortally wounded relationship. Fortunately, once the United States occupant in the White House regains some manner of balance and diplomatically less caustic intent forming every interaction pertaining to Israel and her future I am sure the Israelis will gladly move ahead and simply never mention the injuries suffered the last six years and the potential bumps in the relationship yet to be suffered. Others in the media have accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of making THE Speech all about campaigning for retaining his term in office and being reelected by displaying the good relations he has with the United States by addressing a joint session of Congress. THE Speech has delivered the opponents of Prime Minister Netanyahu sufficient ammunition to shoot him for the next three or four or possibly a round dozen decades and the Israeli leftist media has loaded their weapons to their capacity and will keep the extra munitions for future use. But the politics being played in the United States are far less problematic than the politics being played in Israel.

 

In Israel THE Speech is the center of efforts to pillory Prime Minister Netanyahu claiming that he has destroyed the closest, greatest, most beneficial and friendly relationship any former or potentially future occupant of the White House that Israel will ever experience. Not to toss the entirety of the Israeli media under the bus, we must admit that there are some media sources and reporters, editorialists, anchors and talk show hosts along with bloggers who have supported the efforts by Prime Minister Netanyahu to sound the clarion bell alarms about the impending P5+1 agreement with Iran concerning their nuclear program which Iran claims is solely for civilian use in reactors present and planned for future development while Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and many other world leaders suspect is being utilized to develop and produce in an industrial manner nuclear weaponry. The most distressing of Israeli dissenters who are actively claiming that THE Speech will be the largest possible disaster which will destroy United States relations with Israel and forever cause animosity between the two nations are the two politicians who head the coalition of the Hatnua Party with the Labor Party which these most notorious post-Zionist politicians have mocked the voting public through their use of the misnomer of Zionist Camp, are Tzipi Livni and Yitzhak (Buji) Herzog. Their campaign has almost universally focused on defeating Prime Minister Netanyahu at all costs, and that includes the allowing Iran to attain the ability to fulfill their stated utmost goal to destroy Israel, or as they have referred to Israel, that one bomb nation. Tzipi Livni and Yitzhak Herzog have completely abandoned the unspoken rule for honorable campaigning which places things having direct effects on Israeli relations with the world, especially those relations with historically friendly nations, beyond the pale in any campaign while general theory or policy differences acceptable if handled by stating one’s positions and not direct attacks on actions being undertaken that have direct repercussions on sensitive relations or the future of the State of Israel. Their attacks claiming that THE Speech and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s entirety in office and every actions taken there as working to cause the isolation of Israel on the world’s stage and especially working to destroy relations with the United States and insulting directly President Obama by insisting on giving immediately rather than after the reaching an agreement with Iran before expressing reservations and accusations of reaching and allowing a bad deal which will permit Iran to become a breakout nuclear nation in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s opinion which will be stated in its purest essence as the central subject of THE Speech. As a matter of fact, THE Speech has become a central theme in their campaign and their drive to unseat and replace Prime Minister Netanyahu with their agreed upon sharing with Tzipi Livni taking the first two years and Yitzhak Hertzog assuming the Prime Ministership the final two years knows no bounds nor any restrictions breaking every accepted protocol which have served Israel since her founding on May 15, 1948.

 

So, if the dye is cast and the nuclear agreement a done deal, which simply has a few particulars left to erase the differences, then what is it that Prime Minister Netanyahu believes he can affect by making this apparently contentious appearance, against the better judgment and to the offence which President Obama has expressed, and delivering THE Speech? Perhaps THE Speech will serve its best possible scenario and sour the agreement forcing President Obama to take a new approach, an approach which does not necessarily mean war with Iran which is one of the favorite over-simplifications used by the media. Should that be the eventuality brought on by THE Speech it might lead where the Congress has already stated they intend to head should there not be an agreement reached by the end of March and bring serious, tight, extreme and crippling sanctions against Iran possibly even more stringent than those sanctions which originally brought Iran to the negotiations table before President Obama relaxed sanctions removing many of the most hurtful and effective sanctions. This may work to not only force Iran to reenter negotiations and even potentially force a far more advantageous deal where Iran is forced to not only forfeit continuing their enrichment of uranium, end their construction of the Arak plutonium producing reactor and disassemble all of their centrifuges. This is the deal that President Obama is impossible to attain and that Congress desires using sanctions to prove it to be attainable if only sanctions and time are permitted to work. But it is more probable that President Obama will complete the negotiations and have an agreement to sign in the near future. The only question left is how far Iran will defrost relations with the United States from their frosty ice age which has been the basis ever since the 1979 Iranian revolution and the ensuing hostage crisis where Iran held fifty-two American diplomats and citizens for four-hundred-forty-four days from November 4, 1979, to January 20, 1981, coinciding remarkably with the inauguration of Ronald Reagan. But really, what if THE Speech makes absolutely no difference regarding the agreement being forged between the P5+1 and Iran?

 

There may be reasons beyond simply giving THE Speech before those willing to attend the joint session of Congress and instead intended for the audience beyond which will either view THE Speech through a video or audio transmission, but in Israel the broadcast has been ruled that it must not be broadcast live but with a five minute delay such that anything considered to be a form of campaigning can be muted or even blackening the screen simultaneously as the audio is muted as a precaution against Prime Minister Netanyahu potential to utilize the speech for electioneering purposes. Outside or inside Israel THE Speech will likely be viewed live on CSPAN and I am sure that any interested head of state or politician will be able to arrange viewing live, so basically there will be political leaders and people worldwide who will be able to view live or otherwise view THE Speech with a little effort thus Prime Minister Netanyahu will be speaking to a far wider audience than the United States joined Houses of Congress minus the detractors who will be heeding the demand for them to be the balm for President Obama’s damaged pride by boycotting Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address or possibly his entire visit including any meetings or question and answer sessions he may attend. Then there will be the release of the text which does lack any emphasis added by the Prime Minister’s delivery. These foreign viewers may also be a significant part of the audience intended to be reached by the Prime Minister. Perhaps THE Speech will cause one of the P5+1 members to come out and oppose the agreement thus using their veto to block its implementation other than the United States which leaves Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia. Obviously, Russia and China are more closely aligned with Iran and potentially have no issues with their attaining nuclear weapons capability so the actual targets to object to the deal and demand far more stringent restrictions hopefully crippling the Iranian drive towards nuclear weapons capabilities would be Britain and France. This is not as preposterous a possibility as many might believe as back when the tentative agreement was reached in December of 2013, in a previous vote on the tentative agreement Britain informed the Saudi Arabian rulers of the terms and expressed reservations though they eventually agreed while the French made their communication with the Israelis and initially the French delegation vetoed the agreement and it took until the next day to persuade or otherwise have the French remove their objections and in a subsequent vote all went as preferred by President Obama and his team. It was months later when it became known that the United States had held secret talks and had already released parts of the sanctions even before receiving affirmations from the other partners of the P5+1 nations. So, there is the potential for THE Speech to influence either the British or the French governments such that they send orders to their negotiation delegates and their Foreign Ministers that they have decided to oppose the arrangement hammered out by the United States and Iran independent of the influences of the rest of P5+1 negotiation teams. But what if THE Speech fails to influence any of the nations taking part in these negotiations sufficiently to actively oppose the agreement which is expected by mid-March leaving a little time before the March 31 deadline to smooth any unexpected ruffles which may occur, then what other possibilities could also be sought by Prime Minister Netanyahu?

 

There is another alternative which is probably the least desirable of the potential possibilities and thankfully one of the least likely. Just because the United States along with Russia, China, France and Britain, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and the holders of veto power in that body where the United States veto has been used to Israeli advantage since June of 1967, and Germany which pretty much includes the power brokers from the European Union which has also been included in these negotiations since their inception, reach an agreement or accord, anything other than an actual treaty approved by the United States Congress, does not preclude other nations from attempting to influence or force Iran into negotiations and potentially an even more restrictive and enforceable agreement is not excluded from reality. Such an attempt would require virtually every nation which would otherwise trade with Iran or buy Iranian oil to impose a complete shutdown on all trade with the possible exception originally of medical and food trade goods, but even those would be threatened to be included if the initial sanctions were not sufficiently effective in pressuring Iran into negotiations with this new alliance. Such a decision by a group of nations which might even include one of the first alliances which included Muslim nations such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Kuwait, Bahrain and Indonesia with having Israel as not only one of the nations included, but the nation leading the coalition though it would not be impossible for Israel to operate under the radar, so to speak, and allow Saudi Arabia or Egypt take the leading role. The real threat which would make this such a risk and also so undesirable is the alternative if such sanctions prove ineffective when weighed against the investments and trade with the United States and Europe as well as Russia and China, especially China who buys a large amount of Iranian oil, then that coalition of the willing might find many participating nations not so willing if the time came that makes the need to risk military action against Iran to be placed on the table as an alternate option should Iran continue to refuse to negotiate with this second set of nations. There are very few nations which have sufficient military forces and resources who could join together and pose an actual threat to the Iranian military. There would also be the direct possibility that the nations who took part in the P5+1 negotiations with Iran would decide they needed to enforce their agreement as sufficient and threaten the new alliance with an embargo on them or worse. It is difficult to think of any coalition which would, let alone could, stand against such pressures. The unfortunate thing is there is little hope that THE Speech will have any favorable effects but at least the world, starting with the Representatives and Senators who are in the chamber will receive an in depth explanation of exactly where the Iranian nuclear weapons program has progressed, how long it might take them to build a single nuclear device and how soon after that they would be capable of constructing additional warheads and of the level of sophistications these devices might have and the ever important yields and potential for an EMP device. The one huge question everyone should be clamoring to find the answer, and that is does Iran have the ability to construct a thermonuclear device, in other terms, a hydrogen fusion bomb. If THE Speech reveals that Iran has such technical ability, the engineering specialists capable, and the necessary elements and a trusted and continuous source, as that too would be required to attain such unsettling, daunting and intimidating capabilities; such known to be established capability might even serve as a wake-up call for President Obama, the man who promised to minimize or even reduce the numbers of nuclear armed nations, not initiate and welcome the newest nuclear nation and announcing the newest arms race to nuclear weapon production across the Middle East thus essentially nullifying the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and potentially facilitating the dread inevitability that once almost every nation which desired nuclear weapons were to become so armed which all but guarantees the certitude that a nuclear war will break out somewhere and that will signal the end of civilization and the onset of a world which more resembles those post-apocalyptic B-movies which were released during the Cold War and the threat of a nuclear exchange between the Communist and Western nations.

 

There are those who have claimed, as have I, that President Obama desired to knock the United States from not just the world stage while he was President, but to permanently prevent the United States from reasserting herself as the preeminent surviving super power or even imposing her will through military actions such as was the case in Afghanistan and Iraq until President Obama surrendered both nations through premature retreat pulling out and reducing American military presence such that they served more as advisors and were made too impotent to be a credible force in the field of battle. This is what led to the birth of ISIS and their rise as a threat to Syria and Iraq thus far while the core group also threatens Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel. This was followed, almost ran concurrently, with the pullout of American forces when President Obama pressed Egyptian President Mubarak from office and supported the Muslim Brotherhood and their takeover of Egypt. Following Egypt there was the NATO action initiated by President Obama, though the United States led from behind, that toppled Moammar Gadhafi from power in Libya which destabilized the nation and is where a second core for ISIS was born and has begun to slaughter Egyptians as well as Libyans and threatening to mount an amphibious assault on Italy with the aim of sacking Rome. There have also been reports that ISIS aligned cells are already setting the groundwork to replace the Arab terror groups in Judea, Samaria and Gaza so that ISIS can war with Israel and presumably drive the Jews from their homelands once again. There are bands affiliated with ISIS marauding in the Sinai Peninsula which makes the coup in Egypt potentially a good thing even if it put General Sisi on the throne as a civilian, of course. The destabilization of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has reached from the eastern borders of Iran to the sandy shores of Morocco and the Atlantic Ocean. During President Obama’s terms in office Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has all but completed the transformation of Turkey from Secular society to an Islamic society and virtually enacting Sharia. About the only things that President Obama has yet to complete of the items I had feared were his goals for his Presidency to live-up to his standards and complete those particulars I suspected he desired to complete, he still has a way to go to make many of them but President Obama has functioned with a firm reliance that he is invulnerable and that he has effectively neutered the Congress and will simply allow the courts to fight out the rest of what he performs and he also hopes to be able to appoint some people to the Supreme Court as well as the lower courts. His wildest dream would be to replace two or three of the four conservative stalwarts on the Supreme Court with youthful and energetic justices who share his political views especially that the Constitution is dated and no longer applicable to modern society and thus to be largely ignored whenever it becomes and threat to establishing a just and fair society. Such a society would be based on equity in all things starting with wealth which requires complete establishment of the engine for redistribution of wealth, judicial decision based on racial, gender, sexual preference guidelines which would give special consideration to the favored peoples, the gutting of the United States military which was started by cancelling the production of the F-22 fighter jet along with numerous other new weapons systems, the reduction of Western nations military abilities such that they became susceptible to invasion incapable of resistance, open borders with amnesty and citizenship for all who desire to live in the United States and can actually get here with the Border Patrol redefined job to be the issuing of all items necessary for proof of citizenship, and to destroy the entirety of the United States nuclear arsenal and the ability for the manufacture of replacements once his terms in office are over. His grand design for the Middle East was for Iran to replace Israel as the hegemonic power, give the Muslim Brotherhood the power to rule in an nation which he succeeded in doing for one year in Egypt before the military responded to the demonstrators’ outcries for liberation from the sliding towards Islamist Sharia governance before it became too late, and the establishment of the Palestinian State even if that required it being consecrated in the corpse of Israel in the process. President Obama still has just under two years and he does not need to fear another election or the support of the people and he did manage to get Obamacare passed inside of his first two years so imagine what he can accomplish in his last two years. Meanwhile, we wait on next Tuesday when Prime Minister Netanyahu stands before the mostly combined Congress and potentially every vital, influential, powerful, wealthy, successful and empowered individuals and groups the worldwide and delivers THE Speech, let us hope it accomplishes something very positive in making that necessary changes in the path being taken currently by our world and alters the hearts and minds of those who hate and those who aim to destroy while preventing any further enfeeblement of the Western world as it nears a time of destiny which will decide the future of the human race possibly permanently. We may be coming up upon the final conflict in which the victors will lead us all beyond the cusp into new full of promises and great accomplishments with wonders beyond our imaginations or backward to a period where we live an unbelievably brutish existence lacking in civility or any refinement and thoughts of plenty and dreams of a future will be torn from our minds as time for such things do not exist in such a world.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 20, 2015

Coming Iran Deal May Be Worse than Netanyahu Claims

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When Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu gives his speech to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday March 3, 2015, he may actually be relating a scenario of best possible deal Iran might accept. President Barack Obama might be correct when he claims that he is attempting to have Iran accept the only deal they are willing to make and that pushing for anything more stringent would simply result in Iran balking and walking out without any deal and doing whatever they please. We should all take up what very well could be the newest slogan in the ever shifting political scene that instead of President Obama’s first campaign theme of Hope and Change, we are now looking at Hope and Pray. There is another problem in the Iran dealings which everybody has apparently ignored, what if Iran walks away from the negotiations and simply states that no deal no matter how generous is as good as no deal and Iran doing whatever their hearts desire. This should be a negotiating scenario with which the Israelis should be very used to as it is the exact negotiating scenario Israel had faced with Mahmoud Abbas and Yasser Arafat before him when attempting to negotiate an end to the Arab Israeli dispute. This is where their negotiations are a diversion and have nothing to do with the terms being so laboriously and tediously worked through down to the last detail, exactly as Secretary of State John Kerry described are currently being hashed out at the negotiations between the P5+1 (United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany) and the Iranians. According to Secretary of State Kerry the major framework of an agreement has been laid out and that the negotiations are proceeding on a series of minutia such as inspections schedules, types of centrifuges permitted, how many of the centrifuges would be permitted to be swapped out and replaced with superior and newer centrifuges as time and technology progress, size of the permissible Iranian stockpile of LEU (lowly enriched uranium) and a plethora of other very specific items. This tactic sounds exactly like the Arab negotiations such as the Camp David Summit negotiations which were held under the generous sponsorship of United States President William Jefferson Clinton and proceeded to where all the particulars and specifics of the deal had been negotiated and spelled out. Perhaps a recounting of these events will help.

 

They were meeting in Paris to formally complete the deal and hold the signing ceremony when the Israeli team headed by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak surprised Arab leader Yasser Arafat by simply accepting his presumed final objection in order to arrive at a signed agreement bringing an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict by establishing an Arab state consisting of the West Bank and Gaza with land exchanges on the final five percent of lands Israel was to retain from the West Bank made up of lands from within the Green Line, the sharing of Jerusalem, even a partial right of return, the final demand Arafat believed would be a poison pill the Israelis could not accept, but they did, and every other seeming dispute settled. Yasser Arafat found himself at a place he had thought he had shrewdly been able to avoid ever since the initial agreement in 1993 with the Oslo Accords and their stipulation for working towards a peace settlement. There everybody was sitting at the table, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak with the Israeli negotiators, Yasser Arafat and the Arab negotiators, President William Jefferson Clinton and Secretary of State Albright and the American facilitators on a beautiful Paris afternoon and a completed deal ready for the signatures making the deal final when Yasser Arafat refused to sign claiming the entire deal null and void and totally unacceptable to him, he then rose and stalked out of the negotiations to his car which was awaiting him outside. Immediately behind Arafat was a running Madeline Albright sounding as desperate as she did comical her short body attempting to catch Arafat while teetering on heeled shoes giving up more and more ground as she flung herself wildly down the hallway. That was the end of the Camp David Accords despite Taba Summit and every other final last ditch attempt by the Clinton Administration to forge a deal which would bring Arafat back to the table. He outright refused and never fully explained that his problem was that he would accept nothing less than the destruction of Israel replacing it with an Arab state and removal or slaughter of the Jews residing there, much the same as Abbas is currently working towards as there is not one stich of difference between Arafat and Abbas outside of their attire.

 

The filling in of the minutia is exactly the steps which are being laboriously worked through parsing every last terminology, checking the exact meaning of each and every word, even getting down to the punctuation so as not to miss even the slightest potential for some misunderstanding down the road which may lead to problems of vision as to whether or not the agreement was being fulfilled. This all takes time, inordinate amounts of time, copious amounts of time and this is as the Iranians desire as it also prevents any further real negotiating between the initial extension and the next deadline and meanwhile no actual progress has been achieved. Should one really desire to see what the final idea of an acceptable agreement would entail, all one need do is to research the statements and specifications defined by speeches, press releases and even Facebook and other social media postings made by the only person who actually holds power in Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made his position abundantly clear and despite it differing from nearly every statement made by President Hassan Rouhani, Parliamentary President Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Foreign Minister and Chief Nuclear Negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif or any of the other Iranian political elites. The Supreme Leader has stated in every possible manner that the sole item standing in the way of an agreement are the illogical and indefensible demands which the Western powers continue to stick to in an unprincipled and arrogant ignorance and denial of reality. He has repeatedly stated that it is the right and prerogative of Iran to continue to enrich uranium with as many centrifuges as they desire producing enriched uranium as they see fit for their purposes and the objections of other nations are irrelevant as Iran seeks only the peaceful use of nuclear power leaving nothing for the United States or the Europeans to object to. He has demanded that the Western powers simply realize the truths and respect Iranian independence and their rights as a nation which is their equal, possessing the right to exercise its rights just as any other nation does. The faster the United States and the Europeans relent from their ridiculous demands and show the proper respect of the Iranian people and their government then the faster an agreement which is in accord with the rights and privileges of the independent Iranian nation recognizing its dignities and right to proceed with their nuclear ambitions can be attained and signed. Unless Iran is given the same respect that the Western nations demand for themselves, the sooner the silliness of these talks can end and a serious debate can be held. Simply put, Iran is going to do what Iran wishes to do and the rest of the world can just sit back and observe, period.

 

The Iranian negotiators have agreed with Secretary of State Kerry on one very important point, an agreement and a point which the world would be very unwise in ignoring. They have both stated that there will be absolutely no need nor will there be any plan for further negotiations beyond the coming deadline which has been stated as being March 24, 2015. There are some who claim that technically the actual drop dead end to this round of talks is actually in June or even possibly July. That is of little comfort if the Iranians believe and are holding to the end of the debates being late March as they have claimed that that is their deadline and no extension will be considered. This means that we will very soon see exactly what almost two decades, should one count from the start of talks between the Europeans and Iran and not from the delayed entry of the United States, all has been an exercise in futility and has proceeded exactly as the Iranians had desired, simply stalling any other avenue such as that famous option which has constantly been right there on the center of the table never ever to be taken off of the table, let alone implemented, the military option. The United States view of ever making use of the military option has been made clear beyond the fact that President Obama has often informed the media, “I was elected to end wars, not to start them.” This has been carried to the point that on a number of occasions where Israel had been making preliminary arrangements for their utilizing of the military option, there were leaks suspected, and one even obviously, emanating from the White House which exploded any deals or arrangements coordinated by the Israelis. There was the leak that Israel had obtained overflight permission from the rulers of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the leak of the leasing of two defunct military airfields from Azerbaijan and the United States stated position after Israel had arranged for overflight with Jordan that any unscheduled overflights of Iran would be intercepted by the United States and engaged and shot from the skies if such illegal flights were attempted. These leaks were all made known to the appropriate governments which would have made life very difficult for the nations involved with Israel forcing them to claim that all such information were completely false and that such cooperation with Israel could and would never ever be contemplated, let alone such agreement reached.

 

Meanwhile, the United States continues to lead the dancing troupe of diplomats from Europe all dancing to a tune skillfully orchestrated by the Iranian master manipulators all while making furious noise upon the world’s stage all signifying nothing. The next month will be spent with numerous State Department officials and specialists meeting in endless sessions with their Iranian counterparts going over every word, every spot of punctuation, researching countless thesauruses and dictionaries, translating terms between Farsi and English and even potentially Arabic just to make sure that everything means exactly what both sides think they mean and even potentially having the American side using a word repeatedly only to be countered by an Iranian claiming, “You keep using that word, I don’t think it means what you think it means.” There will be arguments, heated discourse, difficulties laboriously worked through and potentially even fists or even shoes slammed upon tabletops before stalking from the session. We have not had a good recorded footwear slammed on the tabletop since the fall of 1960, when in the midst of the debates at the United Nations concerning the Korean Crisis that Russian Premier Nikita Khrushchev reportedly did exactly that, slammed his shoe atop the table during a session of the Security Council and then led the Russian contingency stomping from the room. This is what supposedly allowed the Security Council the opportunity to pass a resolution permitting military force against North Korea leading to the still unsettled Korean War. It is doubtful that the Iranians would pull such a stunt though it would be a form of ultimate insult as shoes are often thrown as a sign of great disrespect for the targeted individual, ask former President George W. Bush who received just such treatment at the hands of an infuriated Iraqi reporter. The main objective of the Iranians, which will eventually become evident, is to run out the clock without having reached a final wording of an agreement so as to facilitate their walking from the negotiations without any agreement and then either declaring their intent to remove themselves from the restraints of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or to simply continue on to completing their preliminary nuclear weapons research and go on to manufacture nuclear weapons while continuing their research into larger, more powerful yet smaller nuclear devices as well as thermonuclear devices, often called hydrogen fusion devices, while never even bothering to formally depart from the NPT. The final piece which Iran has gained is ISIS and its threat to the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The Iranians are very likely to offer a grand deal to President Obama where they will provide the needed boots on the ground against ISIS providing the United States allow Iran a bundle of items in exchange. These include retaining the lands it recaptures from ISIS, allowing Iran to absorb the majority of Iraq and all of Syria and Lebanon, and allowing Iran complete freedom in the nuclear field as long as Iran also promises not to expose President Obama to any embarrassment by not revealing their nuclear arsenal’s existence until he has left office. After he has left office Iran would then be free to reveal their nuclear capability in a staggered manner in order to make it appear they had not gained their knowledge nor began assembling weaponized nuclear devices while President Obama was in office. All these promises would provide Obama with the cover he would require for his legacy which would include his preventing a nuclear Iran while bringing Iran back within the community of nations and reestablishing Iran-American relations. President Obama might even be permitted to reopen an American Embassy in Tehran. This may even be the best agreement that President Obama and the P5+1 might be able to accomplish as the alternative is an end to negotiations and leaving with their hands empty and less than nothing to show for all their endless efforts.

 

The end result will potentially be that President Obama will end up having no agreement and no prospect of an avenue to preventing the Iranians from the wholesale manufacturing of nuclear weapons and building a huge arsenal resulting in a Middle East nuclear weapons race which may very well result in some very nasty scenarios. What must be kept in mind is that Israel is far from the only nation sitting on the Iranian ‘do not send Christmas cards to list’ who instead might receive a nuclear device used as an EMP device exploding high over the center of the nation. The Iranians would love little more than to replace the Saudis from being the guardians of the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina. Iran also had designs which are well on their way to fruition of incorporating much of Iraq as a province of the renewed Persian Empire simply renamed as the Iranian Empire. After Syria and Lebanon, Iran will be well on their way towards the reacquisition of the lands once controlled by the Persian Empire, about the only things missing from the Persian Empire would be Turkey, Jordan, Israel and a run through the Greek Islands after a very nasty and costly three days at the Pass of Thermopolis. Iran does not see the world through the same lens as does the Western nations. Iran looks at the Western nations as defunct, swimming in debt, morally corrupt, debaucherous, poorly ruled, lacking in direction and perched precariously just waiting to be nudged beyond the cusp and falling into a great chasm, a great abyss never to rise again. And who do the Iranians see as the successor to the Western Hegemony? Themselves, of course. They see themselves rolling across Europe in an easy conquest after subjugating the Middle East and slashing across Northern Africa unifying the entirety of the Muslim world placing themselves and Shia Islam as the preeminent force in all of Islam and as the subjugators of Sunniism. Their slicing across Europe would proceed with ease of effort as the United States would have been brought low after the EMP device was detonated high above St Louis or Kansas City. Once they had conquered Rome they would see that as having defeated all of Christendom, making their only remaining conquest to be Asia. Iran is seeking to conquer the world and they see nothing out in the world that could potentially pose any real or serious threat opposing such a conquest. They see the United States as a technological giant with a serious Achilles Heel, the complete and total reliance on that technology which requires electricity, great quantities of electricity, in order to feed that technology and without which the United States would be mortally wounded. They view Europe as simply waiting to be subjugated and they figure that the disarming of Europe after World War II and their continued military decline resulting from their emphasis on luxuries and frivolities and neglecting their military defense as their biggest weakness which has left them virtually defenseless.

 

The only remaining threat might be Israel which they have claimed is a one or two bomb nation which even with its nuclear capabilities still would not pose any serious threat to Islam as an entirety. Further, if the Iranians put off confronting Israel until they had conquered all the rest of the Middle East and potentially Northern Africa, then Israel would definitely not pose a threat to their entirety of conquest. The United States is a one or two bomb nation because they only need destroy the electrical grid and potentially a third and fourth bombs to take out New York City and Washington D.C. as that would wound America fatally in their financial and political hearts, especially if they struck when almost all of the political class is in the Capital building with the President as happened every January for the State of the Union Address. Should Iran partner initially with Russia, the Russians might realize too late that Iran has used them and had no plans on sparing them from their eventual subjugation under Islam. That leaves the two Asian heavyweights outside of Russia, namely China and India. Iran honestly regards themselves as the next hegemonic world power and sees nobody capable of standing in their way, a view the Western world should regard with great trepidations and respond potentially with great and furious force as anything less may leave the free world in a more serious predicament than they found themselves in when ignoring Winston Churchill and all the warnings he had laid out before them and refused the resistance through force he had demanded of them. The result was Dunkirk and almost the loss of the free world to Adolph Hitler. History does not repeat itself exactly the same each time but comes disguised as the past’s adopted cousin, something that acts similarly but is just different enough that it becomes difficult to detect. You know you have seen all this before but you are unable to draw the correct conclusion, sometimes that delay may make everything else too little too late.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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