Beyond the Cusp

May 1, 2016

Trump and Policies Simply a Train Wreck

 

Donald Trump gave his version of a foreign policy speech and we did not need even the transcript to be able to predict how it went. Before the Trump supporters start screaming and sending less than happy e-mails, Trump is still slightly preferable than either Democrat choice but only by the slimmest of margins and would be almost as amusing to cover than would Bernie Sanders. That out of the way, perhaps now we can discuss why Trump’s many and conflicting policy positions might be a good thing. First and foremost they show flexibility. Not many candidates can be so far afield so as to be on both sides of so many crucial issues. This allows the Donald to place a finger in the wind and change with the breezes. It also allows him to take advice from those who actually have a clue and read the teleprompter while still sounding bombastic to the frustrations and joys of the media. Donald’s problem is he is the best news possible to those that hate him and the worst possible candidate to those who actually support him. The real difficulty for both is to cobble together a core set of beliefs and mold a coherent set of policies to call them Trump. Instead, they should just revel in whatever one wishes to believe. Trump trumps the competition because somewhere in his policy statements, as varied as such may be, are those magic lines which each supporter can cling to like a life vest on the Titanic as his next sentence will be throwing you overboard as he crashes headlong into the iceberg everyone else saw coming.

 

So, if of the choices left of Trump, Hillary and a complete unknown have one leaning towards the Donald, what is it they can say and support about his policies? That actually may be easier than most think and still remain completely truthful. Donald Trump does not sound like he has any policies other than slogans and his unbounded love of self is actually a complete coverage of his current policy positions. Trump supports Trump as a policy and that may be the best of all possible positions as that is one he can really get behind. With Trump as Trump’s policy he can with certainty claim he supports such a policy wholeheartedly. Trump is the perfect answer to any and every question concerning policies and positions as Trump is the position nobody can argue against. What about immigration, he support’s Trump. Foreign policy, Trumps the game. The Economy, he’s wealthy, did you know that? And on taxes, he avoids them because that is Trump. Where does he stand on the Middle East, right here where he is standing at any moment, be it New York, Los Angeles or somewhere in between, let’s call it Kansas City. Hey, Trump’s the man and we all should realize that by now as he has told us so a thousand times just last week, or was that just yesterday, it is hard to keep track of the number of times Trump has touted the Donald as the answer to any question. That is what is so appealing about the man; he is his own best answer.

 

There is always a Steppenwolf song which describes most any situation and Hippo Stomp describes Trump. The particular refrain goes something like,

“If I should go astray and say “I lost my way”
Nobody would know me
But if I don’t believe I can and still say “Hear my plan”
Somebody would follow just because it’s free!

That is Donald as is the remainder of the song,

 

“If I should go astray and say “I lost my way”
Nobody would know me
But if I don’t believe I can and still say “Hear my plan”
Somebody would follow just because it’s free!

We’re all Hippos, rollin’ down the river
Sometimes we can’t touch the ground
Like Hippos slidin’ in the water
Somehow we’re stompin’ around

Now you can see me lyin’ down in my swamp
Any time I feel disgusted
You’ll see me do the hippo stomp
Hey, hey, you can try it when you’re feelin’ blue

If you should go astray and say “I lost my way”
Nobody will know you
But if you don’t believe you can and still say “I’m your man”
Somebody will follow just because it’s free

We’re all Hippos rollin’ down the river
Sometimes we can’t touch the ground
Like Hippos slidin’ in the water
Somehow we’re stompin’ around

You stop and watch me
While you’re out on your midnite romp
And I can feel the silent question
What the heck is the Hippo Stomp?

Let me answer you and let me tell ya true
Just how I feel when I’m down
Sometimes I wonder you’ll see me stumblin’ around
But you just point and stare

Come on, let me hear you
Somewhere there’s a voice down inside
And when you find it let it teach you
How to ask the question ‘Why’

Just because we live together, we don’t have to like each other
So please don’t fall asleep on me again
Nobody, nobody, nobody knows for sure
You just might never wake up from the dream

Hey, speak up, let me hear you, yeah
Let me show you ’round the reservation
I know my way around these parts, I’ve lived here long enough
Now you can have a taste, an indication of things and times to come

If you should go astray and say “I lost my way”
Nobody will know you
But if you don’t believe you can and still say “I’m your man”
Somebody will follow just because it’s free

Early in the morning, late at night
Somebody seems to know just how this thing work’s right
‘Cause every time I come around the corner
Somebody’s looking out my door
He’s been snoopin’ like a hound
I’ll grab his neck and shake him on down

We’re all Hippos rollin’ down the river
Sometimes we can’t touch the ground
Like Hippos, slidin’ in the water
Somehow we’re stompin’ around

We’re all Hippos rollin’ down the river
Sometimes we can’t touch the ground
Like Hippos, slidin’ in the water
Somehow we’re stompin’ around

We’re all Hippos rollin’ down the river
Sometimes we can’t touch the ground
Like Hippos, slidin’ in the water
Somehow we’re stompin’ around

I guess what we’re saying is when anybody asks you what you think Donald Trump’s answer or position is on any subject, you can simply answer, “His position is trumps (Trump’s) and as far as that goes, it’s the Hippo Stomp, man, the Hippo Stomp.” That will leave them scratching their heads and they’ll likely never ask you to explain a Trump position ever again and you can wear your Trump is trump button in peace. Granted, you will need to repeat this a lot, but only once per questioner, we promise. It explains Trump perfectly and is almost as straight forward, honest, forthright and as easy to understand as it is to discern actual policies from what Donald Trump states from one time to the next, which often comes as the next sentence, when queried on any subject. The only thing that we have found as a consistent theme from Donald is that Donald Trump is the answer we have been seeking. If that sounds eerily familiar, it should. There will be two main differences between a Trump Presidency and the Obama Presidency, advisors. President Obama honestly does believe he is always the smartest person-hood in the room and no other person matters quite as much. That is not to say he does not listen to those advisors closest to him, it is to say that his advisors share his wide visions just as ardently as does he and they are in complete agreement. Donald Trump, on the other hand, knows he knows little but also knows admitting such is poison to politicians and that he must tout himself as the smartest person in the room and hopefully he is finished goring other people’s hogs and will simply push Trump is trumps as the answer. The difference is Trump will be depending on those he places in positions around him for honest assessments and expertise and they will be setting the policy providing one thing, that they can explain it such that Trump understands the who, what, where, why and how of the position as then he can adopt it as his.

 

Odd as it will sound to many a Reagan enthusiast, that was mostly Ronald Reagan’s key to his success and had been the key to every successful President with very few exceptions. Nobody, outside a few egos around here, knows sufficient about almost everything to be able to be President and make it work. A good leader knows how to delegate, to whom to delegate and how to get the best possible people for every position. This does not mean you choose people with whom you know you will have difficulty agreeing, you choose at least three or four and no more than a half dozen people who care and are capable of taking the opposite side and playing devil’s advocate, or actually are the devil in the details, and then be capable of preparing you to take a position and defend it against all challenges. The secret is the team as a whole being more than just its individual parts. That is what one desires to keep them informed and on an even keel, or at least not capsizing constantly. Donald Trump has been all over the place on policies because he is avoiding being pinned to a particular position with a few core exceptions which are really as he believes. If Trump has been consistent on his position and not taken opposing views, and there have been a few more than those we have noted, then those are his core and his advisors will have a ‘huge’ (pronounced ‘Yuuchge’) job changing his position as they will need to both prove him wrong and then prove themselves right before he will budge.

 

Now these positions do not mean he knows how he will actually make actual policy out of his position and that is where his advisors will have their work cut out for them as he will insist that those items be executed faithfully. The Donald will also have a standing order that nobody correct him publically and instead allow him to disagree and correct himself as only he can and otherwise back him and make him look ‘Good,’ very good. The real Donald will become known by the people he chooses for his Cabinet and other advisors. Probably the most important advisors he will choose will be his foreign policy chief, his defense advisor and once he gets to it, the General he appoints as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Generals who will serve under that person as these will be the tactical advisors responsible for executing and advising on all things military as well as providing additional information on which foreign policies will rest. These Generals will likely be chosen in close concert with the Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State, two people who will be indispensable for the success of Trump as President. Until these people are in place and the new civilians have been briefed on the realities in the world, the threats, promises, promises of threats, threatening promises, adversaries and whether each is sane, rational, irrational, insane, predictable, or a loose cannon, then all intended policies can be adjusted to fit the reality and everything can proceed forward from there. Examples, Russia’s Putin is sane, cold, calculating and fairly conservative and very risk adverse and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is irrational, irreverent, dangerously unstable, unpredictable and possibly the greatest threat to pop up at the worst possible moment and finally the leadership of Iran is a group of religious fanatics led by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei (سید علی خامنه‌ای) who are calculating, unpredictable, self-serving, fanatical, supremacist and believe themselves directly guided by Allah and as such infallible.

 

Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, Sayyed Ali Khamenei

Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, Sayyed Ali Khamenei

 

Of the three, Putin is the least dangerous and should be kept in regular communication such that he feels confident he will not be double crossed or ignored in those things he has a vested interest. The next least dangerous is probably Kim Jong Un as his resources are limited and he has desperate problems at home as his people are literally starving which does not bode well for extravagance, which is unfortunately how Kim Jong Un lives and this could eventually lead to a revolt especially as he has proven to be capable of turning even against his own family at the drop of a hat. The Iranians are likely the largest threat as they very likely already have nuclear weapons and are adding to their numbers as quickly as they can assemble additional and more powerful warheads. Their nuclear arsenal will likely soon outstrip those of the United States European allies and soon surpass Israel’s undeclared weapons and Iran is very likely to use their nuclear weapons as a first strike option and not as a deterrence and nuclear security weapon allowing their freedom of action unencumbered allowing them complete hegemony in the Middle East.

 

Iran has a discernible intent to want to supplant Saudi Arabia as leader of the Arab world despite they’re not being Arabs themselves and to then move to lead the entirety of the Muslim world converting all under their thumb to Shia Islam placing the Shiites over and above the Sunni who have held the predominant position in Islam since the split between the two main sects between the years 630AD and 650AD. After unifying all of Islam the Iranians will then proceed to unifying the world under the rule of Islam and eventually forcing all to convert or face the sword of Allah. Their war to convert and conquer the world may not wait until all of Islam has been mastered and converted to the Shiite banner, though the lion’s share of that will be required to facilitate the final conflict. This conflict can be initiated in the most violent and broad a front as imaginable and very easily could have the general use of nuclear weapons to decapitate the leadership of the strongest of forces which would stand in opposition. In the time leading up to such and in parallel to the conquest of all Islam, there will be measures taken to subjugate and take steps to assume power throughout as much of the world as possible using infiltration, much as Europe is currently facing.

 

Iran will be one of the main, if not the main, challenges for the foreseeable future and the most dangerous. They will also offer the greatest of opportunities to ally forces which currently appear to be in conflict even if mostly through economics (China) or through spreading influence (Russia and Iran). Whoever the Americans choose to be their next President, once again the biggest and most crucial threats and challenges will be in foreign policy. This was true during President Obama’s terms and he fell dreadfully short as many, ourselves included, feared he was destined to do. The world is that much more dire a situation as President Obama strengthened the most dangerous of regimes directly and did little if anything to discourage the rest of the threats allowing all threats to the Western World and culture to fester and grow more threatening. It may come to pass that history will lay the subjugation of Europe to Islam as directly attributable to President Obama and his petty policies executed apparently to spite the United States for perceived sins, some real and others imaginary. The reestablishing of the United States a predominantly a forced for good and an empowering ally more than a domineering imposition will be the greatest challenge going forward. It will be in this theater by which Presidents will be rated by history going forward as it has been since President Truman first chose to actually save the lives of countless Japanese military and civilians as well as probably approaching a million or two American and allied servicemen which would have been lost if Japan would have needed to be invaded on her home islands not to mention the strong likelihood that the Russians would have helped themselves to the Japanese northern most island. There has been temptations by revisionist historians to paint the use of the atom bombs by Truman as the greatest war crime ever perpetrated, but in reality it saved millions of lives as the Japanese would have fought to the last individual had the Emperor and military commanders not been shown the impossibility of their position.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 28, 2016

It’s Final and It’s Clinton and Trump

 

Sure it is still possible for Cruz/Kasich or Bernie Sanders to steal the limelight with the teaming up of Cruz/Kasich to temporarily stop Trump or for Bernie to turn the world on its head and win the nomination outright, but pigs have a better chance of flying. So we may as well face it that the United States election will place a criminal against an egotistical buffoon. Such a choice will likely produce the smallest turnout for a Presidential election in American history with over half the eligible voters blowing off the election out of sheer disinterest. The election will be won by whichever of the two candidates sickens their base less than the other. Call it the election where large portions will be voting for the one that makes them less ill. The question must seriously be looked at as to what each Presidency would look like and what the world can expect.

 

Hillary will quite likely be the more predictable of the two as she will be a true leftist performing exactly as advertised. She will continue to spend on social issues taking it from the military. She will cut the NASA budget and we will hear repeatedly about the billions of dollars going to NASA and how such expenditures cannot be justified when the social issues are so dire. She will raise taxes even further on businesses forcing even more companies to flee from what will be an even more oppressive atmosphere. Amnesty for illegal immigrants will be a given and will include a number of millions additional from the troubled Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The flood gates will open for Syrian, Afghani, Iraqi, Libyan, and who knows where else from the failing MENA nations and will be brought in as Europe refuses to accept millions of these immigrants and their nations of origin will disavow them leaving them as people without a country until Hillary rides to their rescue. All financing will be returned to Planned Parenthood. All this and more will result if Hillary has a democratic Congress, especially if they remake the rules preventing filibusters in the Senate by requiring a mere majority vote for cloture as was enacted early in President Obama’s first term.

 

Clinton vs Trump

Clinton vs Trump

 

There will also be a push towards raising the minimum wage above $12.00 and eventually up to $15.00 an hour. This will speed up the automation of fast food service centers, calling such a restaurant would be a stretch. The first company amongst the burger giants to come out with a completely automated service and retrieval and cleaning using robotic servers and cleaning robotic units, especially if they appear humanoid but still obviously robotic to avoid that gulch where they are too humanlike but just enough off to be spooky. We believe the term for such robots are they are in the Uncanny Valley where they freak people out and make them uncomfortable. Unemployment will skyrocket along with the minimum wage hike as more and more jobs simply disappear either through automation of certain sectors of industry or simply fleeing to Asia and other places of lower production costs.

 

There will be pressure by the green movement to tighten pollution standards and a strong push to tax gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles to higher prices making electric vehicles more attractive. Expect a European style carburetor tax or even cylinder tax with a tax based on number of cylinders where production of a car has such a tax pushing the prices skyward. Gasoline taxes will also push gas to European levels or higher. Expect a mileage tax to be levied with GPS mileage tracking systems required on all cars including retrofitting older vehicles. If such a requirement makes keeping your old vehicle on the road too expensive to install the GPS mileage tracking system, enjoy walking or the bus. Automated trucking with self-driving vehicles will become more common. This too might also be another item built into the GPS mileage tracking where every vehicle signals its GPS location, direction and speed which can be read by the automated vehicles to assist them in driving decisions. Such systems could also automate speeding tickets as your speed would be recorded at all times and exceeding the speed limit could result in an automated system sending you a ticket for each violation. Who needs speed cameras when the vehicle itself can turn itself in for speed violations? Cities might even enact car free zones where vehicles are forbidden forcing people to use mass transit. All this and more could be a result of a Hillary Clinton Presidency.

 

Donald Trump will be far more difficult to predict as it will depend largely on whom he appoints as his Cabinet and advisors. The biggest danger of a Trump Presidency would be if his policies become unpredictable, especially in economic programs. Should he start one set of economic programs and after five or six months not have the results he desired so he changes the game and again every four to six months then investors will sit on their money as such a game would become too risky and they would turn into risk adverse investors placing their investments in predictable sectors or overseas. Trump might react to pressures from ecology lobbies and make some concessions and it would depend on which as to the effect. CAFÉ standards might be increased demanding higher MPG ratings for vehicles. Taxes on businesses would likely be lowered which would be a positive; and minimum wage, where it may be raised, would not approach $15.00 which would permit for lower unemployment numbers.

 

Certain advances are going to be unavoidable. The driverless automated trucks are coming and there is no preventing that short of making them illegal, not going to happen. Mileage taxes will be levied by the individual states even if not done by the Federal Government. Requiring GPS reporting mileage and possibly constant recording and reporting trip data to the government is coming and will be used to try and force driverless vehicles to replace human drivers even before the technology is perfected, though it is very close, which is why it will be unavoidable. Trump might actually listen to the car manufacturers and allow for hydrogen powered vehicles as an alternative to electric cars. What the ecology lobby does not want people to know is that electric cars do little to lessen pollution and just change the location of the pollution as charging the electric cars requires greater output by power plants most of which burn fossil fuels with extra demand making up for the pollution presumably not produced by driving gasoline powered vehicles. The hydrogen powered vehicles exhaust is water vapor and its main pollution is thermal as the exhaust is in the form of steam predominantly. Perhaps some system could be installed which would permit some degree of condensation before release into the atmosphere, but the efficiency of such a system would need to be proven before any great claims could be made.

 

The area where either a Trump or a Clinton Presidency would be most in doubt would be foreign policy. Hillary might be more willing to intervene militarily and then leave too quickly after declaring job accomplished which may or may not be a better policy providing the parties understand that intervention remains an option if things are not improved after any regime change. Another Libyan style disaster would serve nobody. Trump, on the other hand, is a complete unknown and the sole plus is that as a complete unknown and with his reputation as being somewhat unstable and capable of flying off the handle, other nations might be tempered in their desires to test a President Trump. There will always be at least one foreign country which will test any new President and how they react to such a test can set the mood for the remainder of their term. After the Bay of Pigs disaster Khrushchev tested President Kennedy by shipping nuclear capable missiles into Cuba sparking the Cuban Missile Crisis and the rest is history. Needless to say there were no more tests after President Kennedy literally blockaded Cuba and prevented any additional missile deliveries and demanded the removal of those already in place. Things got a good deal quieter after that faceoff.

 

What will be the test for the incoming President? We predict it would likely come via the situation in what used to be Syria and potentially Iraq and could be either from Russia or Islamic State. There is the already existing threat in the South China Sea with the Chinese literally building and arming islands right in the heart of the existing sea lanes forcing shipping to detour adding hundreds of miles to the routes between Japan and Asia as they need to circumnavigate around these Chinese newly-fashioned and militarized islands. These also could be utilized to prevent any reinforcement in a timely manner of Taiwan should China finally attempt to make good on their standing threat to restore their province which they claim Taiwan actually should be. Then there is the challenge which is sure to be presented by Iran as they continue to flaunt their disregard for any limitations presumably set by the Iran deal which likely was simply an agreement that Iran not announce or test a nuclear weapon until after President Obama has set off for golfing and placing his Presidential Library between the ninth hole and tenth tee next to the clubhouse on his Presidential Golf Course. Foreign challenges are always an area where second guessing is commonplace as nobody can predict everything accurately as there is always that surprise awaiting around every corner. The one predictable item is foreign powers are less likely to challenge Trump than they are Clinton. That might be a very seriously bad mistake, period. Hillary Clinton could be their worst nightmare if she was having a bad hair day when they pushed her; she could be far more vicious and unpredictable than Trump could ever be. Trump, though potentially unpredictable, would at least be relatively logical even if that logic might be unfathomable to some. Hillary Clinton would be simply terrifying should she feel threatened or being made a fool of or made to appear hesitant and weak as she would be more likely to overreact to any situation and press it to unnecessary levels or even use overwhelming force where a strong show of force without pulling the trigger was all that was necessary to end the threat peacefully. We have far more trepidation when it comes to Hillary over Donald when it comes to foreign threats despite both being unpredictable. No matter which wins there will be no telling the results until either has settled in and the initial actions and reactions have been initiated.

 

The final item is Israel. Trump will depend on who his advisors are on foreign policy, but we believe he will be more even handed and accommodating regarding Israel once he is made fully appreciative of the situation. Trump will need to weigh what the Pentagon and Defense Department give him and what the State Department tells him. With such conflicting information, he will necessarily have to choose and hopefully will have visited Israel and talked to both sides and gotten his measure of the land. Hillary Clinton will likely make President Obama appear to have been a supporter of Israel and best of friends with Prime Minister Netanyahu. We already are fully aware of the lack of good relations between Bibi and Hillary and the special hate she holds for Israel. Expect the chill between Israel and the United States to become an ice age under Hillary with no possible thaw and open threats to become commonplace from the White House to Jerusalem. There will be nobody to answer the calls from Hillary as her animosity is well known in Israel and she will manage to even alienate the Israeli left within the first year of her screeching demands for Israel to surrender completely to Abbas. Any dealing with Hillary by Israel would be suicidal. Trump may initially be an unknown but would at least not enter the situation convinced of their preconceived notions as Hillary would be, and she would be completely anti-Israel no matter what lies she told AIPAC.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 25, 2016

Potential British Exit from European Union

 

Despite the unsolicited commentary and thinly veiled threats from President Obama, the British governance from both sides of the aisle have always endeavored to keep open the financial freedom of the British Isles to depart from the European Union (EU) by retaining the Pound Sterling as their independent Coin of the Realm and merely recognized the Euros as legitimate for use within its boundaries giving it a right above that of any normative foreign currency. One cannot use the Dollar, or other foreign currency, without changing them for Euros or Pounds to pay for items in the United Kingdom (UK). Further, the British were late entries into the European exclusive club which itself had their doubts about allowing the British into the EU as the British were seen to have too close and almost personal relations with the United States (US), especially in trade relations as there existed independent of the EU a free trade agreement between the US and the UK. This agreement between the two Anglo nations was all part of the Anglophile and the relationships of its members. This was seen by the EU as an economic threat which by permitting the UK membership into the EU was tantamount to granting the US membership in the EU, something fought against by presumed friendly nations of France and Germany. Now, all of a sudden President Obama speaks of sending the British to the back of the line for receiving a trade agreement which they retained independent from the EU with the United States as a member of the Anglophile.

 

So why might President Obama issue such a veiled threat to London over their coming vote for independence from the EU and its potential harnessing of the UK economic health as a source for propping up the less productive members of the EU who are experiencing serious economic downturns which they are feigning an inability to reverse. This was a problem which was obvious in its eventuality of the less productive states of southern Europe would have difficulties if forced to use the Euros as their coinage as the value of the Euro was set often in conjunction of German industrial strength and not upon the lesser nations utilizing the Euro as their coinage of preference. The UK likely saw the inevitability of economic uproar and eventual disintegration of the EU and especially this exact division where the wealthier nations would demand a higher setting of the Euros’ value, a value not supported by the economic doldrums many EU member states are currently facing and the lack of monetary policy freedom these states faced. The weaker economies within the EU, such as Greece, Spain, Italy and many of the former East European nations, to sustain an economic growth equivalent to the strength and economic growth by the Euro due to the main productive nations such as Germany, Britain and France, with potentially former Warsaw Pact nations more recently added to the EU such as Poland, have economic growth which often does not equal the valuations of the Euro.

 

 

Map of the European Union

Map of the European Union

 

 

The British by retaining their Pound were free to establish an acceptable level for the value of the Euro compared to the pound upon which the UK established their financial policies. Had Greece, Italy, Spain and the other weaker economic nations retained their original coinage and simply permitted a relative limit to its adjustment against the Euros would have provided for some level of independence which over time would permit for the lowering the value of their independent national coinage which would provide a greater latitude for the value of each countries’ economic jumpstart policies thus permitting that level of economic independence they so desperately require in order to retain their financial independence. The current system originally set these national economic standards to mitigate the different economic indicators by making for allowances between the less industrial and less growth oriented nations and the engines driving the EU economy. The system used basically allowed for a limited form of welfare for the lesser productive nations which grew to the point where the less productive member states inability to match German growth in wealth driving their unemployment higher as they found themselves often incapable of matching the economic expectations of the EU through its presumed common economic policies dictated most often from German economic strength, or at the worst the French economic growth, neither of which were matched by the southern European states.

 

Much of the difference was a result of the completely disparate driver of economic indicators between the industrial EU states and their more agricultural nations whose prices were often dictated by the EU for their crops where a single bad year’s yield would decimate their economic indicators setting standards unfathomably high. Had these lesser nations retained their own separate but equally acceptable coinage their economic indicators would have also grown though not so much as had the Euro which was more attuned to the German economic strength. By retaining a modicum of economic independence their currencies would have reflected their slower growth rate and adjusted against the Euro thus setting the economic indicators somewhat independent of the Euro though retaining their strong bindings both to the EU and to its economic viability. Their newly found elasticity would allow for the continued strong relations which set the overall relationship between the independent nations as a whole when making deals with the rest of the world. This would extend the strength of German, French and British industrial economic indicators as a backing for any deals made with the outside world while permitting some level of independence for the individual nations allowing for the disparate economies to grow in relations to each other in a far healthier environment.

 

That economic story is not the reality which the British will be facing as they decide whether or not to remain as a member state subordinate to the economic policies and other arrangements designed to mitigate the different economic realities within the EU. The reality the British will be facing is the growing pressures from the EU for the UK to give up their independent currency and become a full-fledged Eurocentric economy and matching policies. This would free the UK from economic planning and the freedoms related to such planning having their own currency demanded. Instead, the British are facing the same economic trap which Germany is trapped within where their greater wealth and industrial productivity is being siphoned from German economic health in order to prop up nations who have had the audacity to implement as much freedom from their positions in the interim state of affairs. The German government has been touting this all-for-one-and-one-for-all mindset where all of the EU will sink or swim as a single entity, period, end of story. This has allowed the EU to literally steal German economic wealth and gift it as supposed loans guaranteed by the EU banking system and even used the German’s strong economy to guarantee International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans from international banks in ever increasing amounts just to simply allow the now debtor nations to continue to operate though be it at a far lesser economic growth or even health as has Germany. The British economy is equally healthy as is German economic status with one major difference, the UK is not being forced to uphold and pay the debts of these nations and especially so if the funders of the debt are EU banks including but not limited to the European Central Bank (ECB). This has allowed the UK to deal with much of the Irish secondary economic crash which has stalled the economies of the other UK states such as England, Scotland and others within the UK to have all the national economies to fall within the guidelines of the EU. On the other end of the economic scale there are the nations stalled in their production which may not be forthcoming as there may be a split in the EU which can only be the beginning of the end for the EU as other nations see their path to be more advantageous separated from the stifling policies of the Euro.

 

The controversies in the UK over separation from the EU are splitting even members of the current party leading the British governance with David Cameron as the Prime Minister favoring remaining as a member of the EU while London Mayor Boris Johnson favors leaving the EU which has led to a fight between the two to lead the Conservative Party in the near future. Much of this could be laid at the feet of Boris Johnson’s obvious attempts to lead the Party in the next elections seeking the Prime Minister position for himself. Some have pointed to London Mayor Boris Johnson being for remaining within the EU before he was for the UK-EU Brexit policy. Either way, does it matter as politicians often alter their positions to match the moment and this very well could be Boris Johnson’s eying riding this vote to the top position in all of British politics. Still, this is one controversy which will most likely be resolved before the United States Republican and Democrat presidential national conventions slated for later this summer as the British people will have voted on the referendum slated for June 23, 2016. Finally something which will be decided definitively, unlike the nominees for the American Presidency one of which apparently very likely will not be decided on the first vote in Cleveland. Brexit may or may not be adopted by the June 23, 2016 voting though that vote will be far from the last words and provocations thrown around between the top two politicians of the Conservative Party which will climax before the next election in the UK for Parliament.

 

 

Mayor of London Boris Johnson and Prime Minister David Cameron

Mayor of London Boris Johnson and Prime Minister David Cameron

 

 

If the people vote in favor of Brexit expect for David Cameron to press for the Parliament to overrule the people and lay the groundwork for their remaining and potentially doubling down and at long last resigning their Pound Sterling for their full emersion into the Euro financial disaster now gripping the European continent. This is a test of British complacency or unique and visceral independence from the Continent once and for all having the citizens of the UK loudly proclaiming their independency from the European Continent’s overriding controls. Having ties to the British Isles through my father’s side of the family, he was born and raised in a suburb of London and proudly plied his trade as an English Custom Tailor and Designer in Washington DC where he had many high profile customers from both sides of the political isle in America; my feelings are for the British to remain the British and not just become more European Continentalists. It is my opinion, which agrees with others who observed similar stands, that the Pound Sterling and not forsaking their noble currency has been instrumental in retaining the health and vibrancy of the UK economy as a whole despite certain downturns which if handled by the EU would have dragged the rest of the UK down an economic black hole from which return would have proved miraculously difficult. It is not too difficult to see the difference between the British handling their own internal difficulties between the separate states with the EU handling of such difficult economic challenges as posed to the EU by Greece. The EU has demanded, stolen and misappropriated untold millions, if not tens or hundreds of millions, of Euros generated within Germany and gifted them to Greece with a loose understanding that the debt be repaid promptly by Greece even to the point of using German wealth and health of economy to undersign loans from the ECB, IMF and even American banking institutions who have invested entire retirement accounts on Greek bailouts just to have these investments barely break even as these banks have already reached the point where trading with Europe may require payment before rather than after any deal signing just for safe keeping of any promise of payment.

 

The other item of equal importance the future of Europe may be riding on with the Brexit vote is the influx of tens and hundreds of millions of Islamic refugees and a tap left open for too long and now cones the payment for such a deal of trust and opportunity. The concept was that the Islamic refugees and other Islamic immigrants would make up for the lower than required population growth figures. What have happened thus far have been the swelling of the welfare rolls as many Islamic immigrants prefer to collect welfare and remaining unassimilated and demanding that their new homes change their rules and the very fabric of their societies to match the nations they fled. This is preferable to them as they view Europe as their latest conquest and expect the Europeans t work and assume the rolls of Dhimmi supporting their Muslim betters in the lifestyle they wish to become accustomed to. This will not end well for either party as there will be a growing resentment and eventual revolt against these immigrants who are gaming the system and demanding that Islam replace both the remaining Christian and new ranks of the secular societies which the European touted as being so advanced that they could be accepting of all and respect their new arrivals. Respect has to be a two way street or one side will eventually revolt and there begins the problem.

 

Once European workers realize that their new countrymen are using them as their ticket out of the horrors and squalor of their former homelands and are assuming the role of exalted ones who need not produce but are to be treated to lives free from work or any obligation to the society beyond complete rejection of the underpinnings and instead demanding to have their religious demands and rulings become the bedrock of the new reality where the European slaves toil to support their Islamic betters. Should the British not approve the Brexit proposition then the EU will remain intact and more and more policy and powers will gravitate to Brussels and come under the mastery and control by the unelected EU leaders and even more so its bureaucracy which recently sought an agreement which would permit free entrance for any Turkish citizen. This would lead to a problem as Turkey would then only need to grant citizenship identification cards and paperwork to any and all Arab and Islamic refugees, both due to war or economic, and then pass these refugees unfiltered and without any background checks or terror watches observed eventually crashing the European economies due to their being overrun by unable to be assimilated refugees who would swell the populations of the Muslim communities until something would give, or worse, snap. Already there have been numerous rightist nationalist rallies held unofficially, often without permits and always under the radar as these groups would rather remain anonymous, where the main line of agreement was that something need be done to end this unrestricted inflow of refugees. These groups do not see these refugees as potential additions to the workforce but as foreign invaders in Europe to completely subjugate their societies and destroy secular Europe. These are socialists but not international socialists who believe in the unity of mankind but of the all too familiar fiercely Eurocentric vision socialists. They view the recent refugees flooding into Europe as an invasive disease; an influx of parasitic beasts which must be destroyed before they consume all that these right wing nationalists believe is holy and righteous about Europe. In some ways these are the people who if they had had children instead of living self-serving lives where they lived for the moment and the future be damned the problem of insufficient workforce to generate an economically vibrant functioning society would never have arisen. It was to some extent the old Europe’s own fault that their civilization now lies on the verge of extinction and it may actually be too late to salvage even a remnant of their past. Should Brexit vote succeed then there may be movements throughout Europe starting with France or Germany after which it will be a rush for the exits as the economic heart of the EU will have left the body making it everyone for themselves. This will inevitably lead to a renewed sense of nationalism which will have both a good side and an unavoidable bad side. The good side is there may be birthed a new hope for a future worth having children to enjoy and assure that future and the bad side is the refugees may be sent packing back to their former homelands unless they show signs of cooperating in the building of an assimilated society where everyone is respected and all beliefs or lack thereof are treated equally and respected with no one belief being more equal than others. This will require some adjustments on all sides but through such a situation there may be birthed a new universalism, just one where national pride is valued as a driving force for good and cooperation. The really bad side would be a violent conflict between the two civilizations now occupying the continent which would lead to a bloodbath of unequalled proportions as such a conflict could and likely would lead to yet another generational war, this one being World War III, the war that proves there is no upper limit to carnage. Let’s hope it does not end with such a conflict as the killing weapons of today are beyond imagination compared to just a century ago or even half a century. Mankind cannot afford to go there but also they might not be capable of avoiding such, how sorry.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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