Beyond the Cusp

July 7, 2015

The World After President Obama

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,2016 Elections,24/7 News Reporting,Absolutism,Act of War,Administration,Advanced Weapions Systems,Afordable Healthcare Act,al-Qaeda,Alawite,Amalekites,Anti Missile System,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab Authority,Arab Spring,Arab Winter,Arab World,Arabist,Arabs,Armed Services,Army,Austerity Measures,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollahs,Benyamin Netanyahu,Blue Water Navy,Border Patrol,Breakout Point,Cabinet,Calaphate,Caliphate,Candidate,China,Chinese Military,Chinese Pressure,Civil War,Civil War,Civilization,Class Warfare,Combat Stress,Conflict Avoidnce,Consequences,Covert Actions,Coverup,Debt,Department of Defense,Dictator,Domestic NGOs,Drone Strikes,Ease Sanctions,Ecology Lobby,Economic Growth,Economic Sanctions,Economy,Egypt,Elections,Equal Outcome,Europe,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Extreme Leftist,Extreme Right,Fordo,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Framework,Gender Issues Lobby,German Pressure,Government,Government Health Care,Great Britain,Hate,Hispanic Appeasement,Humanitarian Aid,Humanitarian Aid,Illegal Immigration,Immigrant,Immigration,Ineffective Sanctions,Inteligence Report,Interest on Debt,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Intifada,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,Iraqi Military,IRGC,IRGC,ISIS,ISIS in Gaza,ISIS in Judea and Samaria,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,Jordanian Pressure,Judea,Judeo-Christian,Keynesian Economics,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Mainland China,Mainstream Media,Media,Military Intervention,Ministers,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Multiculturalism,Murder Israelis,Muslim Expansionism,Muslim World,Muslims,Nationalist Pressures,Non Binding Resolution,Nonjudicial Assassination,North Korea,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Proliferation,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Obama,Obama Care,One State Solution,Oslo Accords,P5+1,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Pressures,Parchin,Parliament,Parliamentary Government,Peace Process,Pentagon,Plutonium Production,Politically Correct,Politicized Findings,Politics,Power,President Sisi,Pressure by Egyptian People,Primaries,Promised Land,Qom,Reapply Sanctions,Regulations,Remove Sanctions,Right of Return,Rocket Attacks,Russian Military,Russian Pressure,Samaria,Sanctions,Saudi Arabia,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secular Interests,Sharia,Shiite,South China Sea,South China Sea,Special Forces,Statehood,Submission,Sunni,Syria,Taqiyya,Terror,Theocracy,Third Intifada,Threat of War,Threat of War,Tibet Occupation,Tribe,Troop Withdrawal,Union Interests,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Upgraded Military Capabilities,Uranium Enrichment,US Air Force,US Army,US Marines,Vote of No Confidence,Voting,Weapons of Mass Destruction,World Government,World Media,World Opinion,World Pressures,World War II,World Without Zionism or America,Yemen Army,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:45 AM
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There are those amongst my friends and acquaintances who fear that President Obama will declare Martial Law after instigating some false national emergency whose borderline irrational fear mirrors that of those who feared the same from President George W. Bush. There is too much precedent for such to occur and President Obama will step down and give way to the duly elected President in mid-January of 2017 after the 2016 November elections. The question remains what shape will the world present to the next President and what shape will they find the United States presenting them, allowing for actions to steer the United States after their inauguration. The one point that needs to be made is this assessment is made with absolutely no regards from which party or who will be the next President as we can cross that bridge when we reach it. The first thing is the President will face his power on foreign policy will start from a position of actual weakness not felt by the United States since the start of World War II and actually in worse condition than at the end of President Carter or any other. They will be facing a situation where every branch of the military will have had bordering neglect of weapons systems and other vital maintenance with potentially the nuclear deterrent and missile systems in potentially the worst shape with some munitions in such disrepair as to require their destruction and the necessary systems for producing and upgrading these vital assets also teetering on exhausted supplies and neglected condition as to make their management a simple case of dereliction of duty caused by strangled funding and intentional degradation ordered from the highest places. They will find the senior officers to be largely made up of a weakened corps of merely ‘yes men’ and actual pacifists who believe the United States military would best serve the world in the capacity to deliver aid but not necessarily deliver force of arms beyond the shoreline with the exception of utilizing drones and other stand-off weapons partially due to depleted manpower caused by decreased funding and the paring down of the military leadership through neglect to make efforts to retain the officer’s corps.

 

The rebuilding of the military power will take a concerted effort and require massive funding increases which will make any promise of reduction of the tax burden near to impossible to deliver on in the first two years without simply patching some of the most serious areas of military weakness due to nearly eight years of intentional neglect and lack of concerns for the consequences. There will be the need for some of the cancelled military productions and for consideration of developing modern replacement for some of the oldest of the vital systems. The B-52 heavy bombing corps is utilizing airframes mostly built before 1990 and using systems designed originally in the early and mid-1950s and receiving upgrades restricted to that airframe and other limitations due to restrictions resulting from the designs being of antiquated designs and technologies which would require extensive restructuring of the basic airframe which would more likely be better served by replacement of the B-52 fleet with a new long-range bomber designed with forward looking technology. Even the B-1 and B-2 bombers are utilizing old technology and would require a complete overhaul of systems and even design. The Air Force may be better served with considering a completely new strategy where the pilots of fighter squadrons no longer were seated directly in the aircraft but instead flying the fighters from remoted position of a dedicated stealth aircraft where multiple fighters are controlled from relative safe stand-off positions. Such remotely controlled aircraft could retain much of the size of the current airframes which now being remotely controlled the airframes could be designed with intent of making high-G maneuvers previously impossible to execute due to having a pilot onboard the aircraft. Such a fleet utilizing such design parameters would revolutionize air combat for the future in ways thought unimaginable just ten years ago. The same considerations could be utilized in many modern systems when their next redesign is due especially armored combat vehicles using similar control systems allowing for the replacement of crews with automated systems which would permit decreased size and vulnerability of profile while retaining the accuracy and armaments of modern warfare armored systems. Replacing the infantryman with a robotic system is not yet feasible but should be a priority task presented to DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) with an expected rollout of several prototypes each providing the same abilities with additional features possible only in a robotic system. These systems would still require human operators who would make final decisions of when to shoot and when to stand down. It is doubtful that the American population is ready for terminator styled soldiers operating independently reliant solely on advanced AI (artificial intelligence) units quite yet, but even that would be a presentable concept when considering the demands that any military action place risk on the troops minimizing any possibility of human casualties.

 

The stress on military upgrading and rebuilding is simply due to the requirement of a force to back up policy is required if one intends to have a positive position in dealings with other nations or a defensive position which by requirement is overtly careful so as not to provoke anger or rejection knowing that the military is unable to back up and enforce policies and other demands including protection of the homeland and its interests overseas. This is crucial because the next President will be facing difficulties of the United States’ own making across the globe. Europe will be facing economic challenges which will render their policies being ever more defensive and cautious with numerous European nations facing unrest within their borders. The potential for an explosion of bloodshed within the European continent is becoming not only a future threat but approaching transforming into an imminent threat uncontrolled illegal immigration will be approaching the tipping point where the European culture will become challenged which will push the European indigenous population to the point where the decision will be the same as it has been throughout human history when two disparate and opposing cultures reach the point where the minority population decides to attempt, through intimidation and other threats, to impose their norms on the ever shrinking and aging majority replacing their culture and supplanting them as those wielding power going into the future. Should Europe when so challenged react in the fashion which has served them in the past, with such response as often typified be referencing the Inquisitions, the result will be just as or even more horrific. Europe as a whole has a very disturbing history of open warfare between competing positions which were demanding for far lesser changes in the culture causing horrific wars even including civil conflicts within one’s borders. The possibility of similar response today is all too real. One need not look that far afield to bear witness to such results where internal forces rise up and before all is decided, outside forces enter the war hijacking it to forcefully take over the nation wracked already in violence in an attempt to install a new set of leadership just as dictatorial, just as oppressive, just as cruel and potentially even more barbarous than the one being overturned. Such disasters even threaten to redraw the maps casting the formation for the sham and relativity designed solely to enrich foreign investments. Such is what is being fought over and is the main reasoning given by ISIS who is intent on supplanting both the former dictator and those who sought to replace their dictator with a modern system most likely with elected representation resulting in what is oft referred to as a democracy. Should ISIS prove victorious, there will be a new leadership in the form of a Caliph, an old title being restored so as to impose an old dictatorial leadership who takes their claim to the throne based on historic familial relationship to former Caliphs all the way to Muhammad thus adding a religious basis for their power. Such a religious tyranny would be very similar though diametrically opposed to the theocratic dictatorship of Iran, the other eight-hundred-pound gorilla in this struggle. The third leg of this societal struggle would be represented by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil el-Sisi who has yet to be fully defined and is the sole representative desiring to inspire his nation to become the towering example of how an Arab and Muslim state is capable of using elections as the tool for actually choosing the national governance but also guaranteed to be free and open elections even should he be defeated, and then comes the real test as to whether or not the newly elected leader after President Sisi also chooses to continue the liberal march into modernity or chooses to install themselves as the unchallengeable leader of Egypt. Meanwhile, there are three distinct powers currently vying to lead by two of these and the third simply has desires of surviving the current assaults on its existence which has been an active fight since its inception in May of 1948 and has been pressed to remain on the cusp between militaristic power and start-up nation with a thriving economy wishing only to be unleashed by the restraints necessitated by a constant threat of war.

 

The largest challenge looming on the horizon and very possibly to explode before the end of President Obama’s remaining time in office is of his own doing. The potential for the start of a struggle that would forever change the world may have started once President Obama completes his own set goal of bringing Iran back into the world of nations. The manner in which President Obama set out to perform this miracle would have entailed defanging Iran and then inviting them to join the nations of the world with peaceful intentions by Iran. Instead we have a United States President blindly charging forth demanding this will be his legacy, the making of Iran a coequal partner of the Middle East. The one unavoidable fact is that just as Obamacare (Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act) will be his domestic policy legacy; just as, if not more, dreadful will be his foreign policy legacy as Iran becomes a nuclear power which will have established a basic arsenal of deliverable nuclear warheads consisting of minimally a dozen and more likely three to four dozen with at least one third being thermonuclear warheads (hydrogen fusion warheads). This will place Iran well ahead of whatever plans Saudi Arabia may have in place. This announcement may come at any moment all dependent upon the extent and advancement of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The truth is the world has absolutely no clue as to whether or not Iran already possesses a number of nuclear warheads hidden away from the prying eyes wandering across the skies both orbital and others ground based aircraft. The one truth we do know is that once it becomes obvious that Iran has become a nuclear power, then it will not take numerous other Middle East nations to develop and start building their nuclear weapons arsenals. This new weapons conflict may be solely restrained by the availability of Uranium in any form to be enriched to weapons level of over ninety-percent and then its merging with the rest of the warhead. Below is the list of known nuclear weapons states and an estimate on their numbers of warheads. Once Iran has announced or been determined beyond a reasonable doubt to be armed with nuclear weapons, then the list below will become somewhat obsolete as it is rumored that Saudi Arabia has a standing agreement with Pakistan to purchase approximately one dozen nuclear warheads just so Saudi Arabia will be covered while they acquire and build their own weapons thereafter. One can also expect that Egypt and Turkey would follow suit and develop their own nuclear weapons systems. The breakdown of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also referred to as the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), will tempt certain other members to choose to opt out and develop their own nuclear weapons. Some nations may decide to develop and build their own nuclear weapons while retaining their place on the NPT committees. Some of the other nations which might decide the time has come to join the nuclear club include Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Taiwan and Japan to name a few that came to mind. The nuclear club is perched to become a far larger club of nations where its membership will no longer be the reserved of the very elite but start to resemble another useless body, the United Nations General Assembly which has become a place where the barbarians sit in judgement making decisions that carry no weight behind them beyond the media attention they generate.

1) Russia 7,500
2) United States 7,100
3) France 300
4) China 250
5) United Kingdom 225
6) Pakistan120 (estimated)
7) India 110 (estimated)
8) Israel 80 (estimated)
9) North Korea < 10 (estimated)
10) Iran ??

 

The final stage is China and her continuous efforts to claim the South China Sea and all the islands found within that general area. The problem is there are other nations who claim these islands and who hold claims just as valid. There is a chance of a conflict here though one has to imagine that China is the eight-hundred-pound gorilla of Asia as her size and modernized army with weapons to match and including nuclear weapons. This is the main reason that Japan, Taiwan and even the Philippines might all be slowly reaching the conclusion that if they are to prevent China taking over the islands one after the other inexorably slinking towards their main Isles thus posing an ever growing threat to these Island nations, they are considering that which would have a decade ago been unthinkable, joining the nuclear armed nations so as to have equal threat potential against China. More as an aside than a warning, one must also remember that the most recent Russian madman, Putin, has delusions of reestablishing Greater Russia and now that China and Russia are back on speaking terms, they have been talking of an alliance for sharing technological advances, nuclear technology, weapons research and development. This has an ominous side in that most terrorist groups have either Russia or China at the head of their supply chain. All taken in, we find the nation of the United States with a military that many have pointed to as merely having the strength the United States could project at the very start of World War II, Russia and China ascending, Iran, supported by Russia and China, being handed nuclear weapons and a very large industrial scale systems to construct said weapons from where they will begin to exercise power over the Middle East and perhaps beyond to Central and South America through Venezuela and Cuba being aided by Russia who appears poised to reacquire the lands of Eastern Europe and Central Eurasia, reestablishing the concept of a Greater Russia. Additionally there is China with an ever more capable navy claiming and taking one island after another while claiming all of the South China Sea and threatening to replace America as the preeminent power in the Pacific including the coastal areas in South America and made all the worse as the United States had gifted China with owning the ports at both ends of the Panama Canal even before the turn of the calendar to the twenty-first century.Then Iran has as luck would have it control over the Straits of Hormuz through which almost all of the Middle Eastern oil is transported to the world and is taking control the straits of Bab el Mandeb through their proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, which grants them control over the Suez Canal as this is where the Red Sea enters the Gulf of Aden leading to the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean and the world thus granting Iran control over one third of the world’s trade and oil while China controls the busiest sea in the South China Sea as well as the second busiest canal in the Panama Canal. How much more change can the world hope to endure?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 1, 2015

Israeli Nepal Efforts Amazing, as Usual

 

The extents to which the Israeli efforts in Nepal have risen to in this initial week where rescue is so vital as soon it becomes simply recording the fatalities, are their usual of accomplishing the improbable in responding to a natural disaster. The hopes for finding survivors were greatly enhanced by the assistance sent by the world with the Israeli assistance efforts being amongst the most extensive. Despite restrictions on numbers and types of flights permitted to land at the damaged Kathmandu airport, the Israelis still managed to erect a completely operative field hospital complete with fifty tons of medical equipment including X-ray imaging, complete operating rooms, a maternity ward, laboratory, and virtually everything one might expect to find at a regular hospital. The field hospital is expected to provide treatment, beyond simple first aid, to two hundred patients every day. Once again the Israeli efforts on the ground and in the air are equaled solely by the United States. Israel while providing aid and comfort to the Nepalese also managed to locate and rescue over two-hundred Israelis known to be vacationing or working in Nepal and is in the process of getting these survivors back to Israel. With one individual left to locate, these efforts are laudatory and so extensive that it is reasonable to expect this sole remaining Israeli to be located and provided transportation to Kathmandu and from there back home. The leads thus far on the location of Or Assaraf have all come from locals who had seen him before the massive earthquake struck Nepal leaving massive destructions of buildings and further problems caused by landslides and massive boulders careening down the steep slopes of the Himalayan Mountains.

 

The outpouring of thanks and appreciation pictured in reports are reminiscent of the reactions Israeli search and rescue, medical aid and other vital emergency relief efforts Israel has provided quietly around the world wherever they were needed. These Israeli units are very professional as they are ready response units which train and are always at the ready to fulfill all necessary functions to meet any emergency. These specialized units are in constant training mode up to the instance that their professional services are required, and then they are aboard aircraft with all their necessary gear and trained units ready to respond. This includes K-9 units with dogs specifically trained to locate survivors within the rubble as well as medical units which include doctors, surgeons, nurses and technicians to run the laboratories, X-ray equipment and other such services as in a fully staffed hospital which is as good a description as any to describe an Israeli field hospital. The main difference is the walls are all green and made from a softer and more forgiving material than brick and plaster, in simple terms, tents. With the death toll at this moment approaching 7500, the good news is that two survivors were pulled from the rubble and told of their harrowing experience and how they drank what water seeped down through the collapsed structures which had enveloped them. Both teens, a young boy and even younger girl, had survived for five days buried beneath buildings which their not being crushed was but the first of the miracles which saved their lives. The fact that they survived for five days with extreme limits to their intake of water and appeared none the worse for wear was the next miracle and their seeming perfect health with no ill effects was the final miracle. These youths were perhaps saved so that we could marvel at the miracle before our eyes.

 

For now we can only hope and pray for more such miracles to have saved additional people yet to be plucked from the rubble safe and sound. The efforts continue in Kathmandu to clear the wreckage and debris. One of the problems and something which must be accepted as necessitated by the lack of alternative methods has been the start of burning the bodily remains of the victims as there does not exist the means by which to otherwise dispose of them before they pose a threat to the living. The future holds little promise for locating additional survivors except in the remote areas where an injured individual would be more easily able to find water and even sustenance to hold out until rescuers arrive and can transport them to safety and medical help. The future holds the most harrowing of inevitabilities, the recording of the death toll which having already cleared many thousands threatens to climb even higher as the wreckage and remains of the earthquake are cleared and more bodies located. Additionally, the reports and loss of life in the remote parts of Nepal have yet to arrive. Some of these areas will never reveal their numbers as they do not recognize the central government and thus feel no compulsion to report to anyone. It had even been commented that the IDF search units seeking the hundreds of original missing Israelis were going into areas where the Nepalese military refuse to enter due to the animosities of some local tribes. As originally penned by Alexander Pope, it is appropriate to now state, “Fools rush in where angels fear to tread,” as this has often described the rescue forces of the IDF and they have universally been accepted by the locals who are suspect of anything bearing witness to a higher power than their tribal hierarchy. Perhaps the reason is that the IDF forces come solely to provide assistance, true assistance free from any strings or expectations of anything beyond acceptance to perform their mission, assisting survivors and finding those in need of rescue from the destructive forces of nature. This in many ways is the prefect description of Israel as a whole, the desire and intent to provide assistance, true assistance free from any strings or expectations of anything beyond acceptance, and to provide a meaningful template by which mankind can live through their examples and by such to be a light unto the nations.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 14, 2015

They Have Actually Started Eating Each Other

Filed under: 1967 War,24/7 News Reporting,Absolutism,Administration,Al-Aksa Martyrs Brigade,al-Aqsa Mosque,Amalekites,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Arab Appeasement,Arab Authority,Arab League,Arab World,Arabs,Ariel Sharon,Ballot Access,Blood Libel,Borders,Children Crippled,Children Murdered,Civil War,Civilization,Clan,Command,Condoleezza Rice,Count Ballots,Coverup,Elections,European Governments,European Media,European Pressure,European Union,Failed State,Fatah,Fatah Charter,Foreign Funding,Gaza,George W. Bush,Government,Government Controlled Media,Green Line,Hamas,Hamas Charter,Hate,Humanitarian Aid,IDF,Income,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iranian Pressure,ISIS,ISIS in Gaza,ISIS in Judea and Samaria,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Interests,Israeli Media,Jenin,Jewish State,Jihad,Jihad,Jobs,Judea,Knifing,Koran,Leftist Pressures,Mahmoud Abbas,Mainstream Media,Media,Media Bias,Media Censorship,Media Intimidation,Military Coup,Misreporting,Muslim World,Muslims,Nablus,NGO,Nonjudicial Assassination,Omission,Oslo Accords,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Legislative Committee,Palestinian Media,Palestinian Pressures,Palestinian Security Force,Parliament,Politicized Findings,Politics,President,President for Life,Prime Minister,Ramallah,Rebel Forces,Refugee Camp,Refugees,Samaria,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Security,Shechem,Shooting Victims,Six Day War,Standard of Living,Talking Heads,Terror,Theocracy,Threat of War,Tribe,United Nations Presures,United States Pressure,Validate Elections,Victims,West Bank,World Media,World Opinion,World Pressures,Yasser Arafat — qwertster @ 2:18 AM
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The differences between Hamas and Fatah have been well documented and their 2007 open warfare for the control of Gaza was simply the Super Bowl which had one merciful fact, it lasted just under one week from June 10 to June 15, 2007. The official casualty count was one-hundred-twenty Palestinian combatants and thirty-nine Palestinian civilians and two UN personnel. This was the most famous and heavily reported violence between Palestinian factions though there have been numerous breakouts of violence between different family groups, crime entities, competing terrorist groups and sometimes even violence between individuals. Most of the violence has been ignored by most of the world’s media as reporting on violent disagreements between separate Palestinians would detract from their normally presented angelic image usually used to paint the darlings of the mainstream leftist media. If Israelis had problems anywhere near the level of the animosities often overlooked between Hamas and Fatah it would lead every newscast and top every newspaper in the world. Unfortunately for the mainstream media the animosity between Hamas and Fatah and the charges Hamas levels against the Palestinian Authority and Mahmoud Abbas has been such that it has demanded coverage from time to time. Just to give an idea of the extent that differences and threats between even Hamas and Fatah and the President of the Palestinian Authority just this past week Mahmoud al-Zahar, an ranking officer with Hamas, leveled challenges to the rule of Mahmoud Abbas calling his continued rule as illegitimate as he has not stood for election and thus Abbas’s term as “president” expired years ago. He further accused Abbas of “treachery” for allowing for security coordination and cooperation with the IDF (Israel Defense Forces). Zahar also equated Abbas’s name as an “embarrassment” to every Palestinian. Zahar also addressed the charge that Hamas was working to form their own Palestinian state in Gaza by presenting that Hamas would not be satisfied with a state in Gaza or in the “West Bank” (Judea and Samaria) as their intent is intent on the complete destruction of Israel. Mahmoud Al-Zahar further stated, “If we succeed in setting up a government in Gaza, autonomy, civil administration or any other framework on a portion of the land of Palestine, that does not mean that we give up on one other grain of Palestine.” Just one week earlier Al-Zahar demanded an end to the Palestinian Authority and explained that the “honeymoon period” was over as was any hope of continuing the “unity government” calling for a return to the “armed struggle.” Of course none of this was reported on the evening news throughout much of the world even including some newscasts in Israel. These little spats cannot be permitted to spoil the view that everything between the factions within the Palestinian Arab families might have even the slightest possibility of hitting a rough spot.

 

The truth is that rough spots is the norm between Hamas and Fatah or even Hamas and the Arab Palestinian Authority and have been that way since the elections in 2006 when Hamas won the Parliamentary elections and Abbas decided that there was no need for having an election for his spot as the President of the Arab Palestinian Authority as he had just succeeded the Late Yasser Arafat just over eighteen months earlier and extended his term until the next elections in 2009. This problem was the result of the hubris of the United States, surprise, surprise. President George W. Bush and his then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice insisted that the Palestinian Parliamentary elections of 2006 had to be open to all the parties of the Arab Palestinian Authority, both Fatah and Hamas. Somehow they missed insisting on Islamic Jihad but why quibble over degrees of disasters. Mahmoud Abbas pleaded with President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to reconsider informing that allowing for Hamas to field candidates against Fatah would result in a disaster and a Hamas victory, the only variable was the scale of the disaster. Prime Minister Sharon also demanded that this open election not be pressed as it would all but guarantee a Hamas victory which Israel pressed would be a disaster for Israel, any hopes for peace and might even result in a new war. President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice remained adamant and the rest is history, Hamas won a majority in the Parliament and all elections going forward would end up cancelled after the Gaza War which led to a Hamas government in Gaza and a Fatah controlled Arab Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria (West Bank).

 

There was a new wrinkle this past week when violence flared in Judea and Samaria between different segments of the Arab Palestinian Authority, of different Fatah factions. The latest flare-up has broken out in two locations, Jenin, once the location of a false massacre that to this day is still used to attempt to besmirch the IDF despite the fact that even the United Nations, not exactly the best friend when it comes to defending Israel, investigated the battle and found that for all intents and purposes the casualties were virtually all combatants and the numbers were minimal and nowhere near the numbers claimed by Palestinian spokespersons or numerous international NGOs, and Nablus, historically named Shechem since the times of ancient Israel of nearly three-thousand years ago. Both Jenin and Nablus are within Area A which places them under complete Arab Palestinian Authority control which includes both civil and security. The laws in these two cities and surrounding areas is made by the Arab Palestinian Authority Parliament and is enforced completely by the Arab Palestinian Authority Security Forces personnel. All of this was spelled out and stipulated part and parcel in the 1993 Oslo Accords and was intended to allow the Arabs to prove they were capable of self-rule and managing their own areas, the results of this have been mixed at best. The violence which broke out this week was not a sign that things are going neither well in Jenin nor in Nablus. Let us take the two locations separately.

 

Jenin has been a powder-keg as the refugee camp there has been the home of numerous different terrorist squads and crime within the camp has been a running problem as the refugees are denied employment and are prime candidates to join terrorist squads or turn to crime as any manner of escape from the camps is highly desirable. The fact that there are Arab Palestinian refugee camps within Judea and Samaria as well as within Gaza is virtually beyond belief. These Arabs are living in what can only be described as government provided apartment buildings similar in design to the government housing in the inner cities in the United States, permanent structures made of concrete forms and fully furnished just as any other apartment building except that these apartment buildings hold Palestinians denoted as refugees living amongst Palestinians in a Palestinian governed area. Should the world decide tomorrow to end the farce which is the Palestinian refugee permanent and festering situation where if either of your parents were refugees then you will grow up as a refugee and your children and their children yet to be born will also be refugees. The violence, which was reported in some news media given the kind of coverage where it was not a leading story, broke out on Friday between members of the Fatah Party, possibly from their “military wing” the al-Aqsa’s Military Brigades, and Arab Palestinian Authority Security Forces, the “military and police forces” of the Arab Palestinian Authority which is made up mostly if not entirely by Fatah members in central Jenin near the refugee camp. This was simply the latest in a series of firefights between the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades forces and the Arab Palestinian Authority forces. One such incident resulted in the Arab Palestinian Authority Security Force Headquarters being engulfed in a hail of bullets where fortunately and miraculously nobody was injured.

 

The amazing thing is the Fatah and the Arab Palestinian Authority both have Mahmoud Abbas as their leader. Abbas is the Chairman of the Fatah Party and the President of the Arab Palestinian Authority, so this pitted armed men from one side under Mahmoud Abbas shooting and engaged with armed men on the other side under Mahmoud Abbas, and this is a normalcy within their society with its dualities often drawn to separate the so-called refugees from the rest of the population. The next day, Saturday, in the Balata “Refugee Camp” in Nablus, the car of a leading Fatah activists, Fayiz Arafat, was set on fire. Several days before his vehicle was burnt, he was the target of an apparent assassination attempt which the local people placed the blame on the Arab Palestinian Authority Security officers. These shootings have been escalating under the radar for quite some time and only recently have they spilled out of control and thus started to be reported in some reports within the communities, both refugee and normative Arab Palestinians. These outbursts of violence have been escalating with their having been two main sources leading up to these escalations, coup attempts by Hamas and the influx of ISIS supporters starting to form cells which are then seen as rivals leading to their targeting by the long-standing forces from within Fatah, some of which also serve in the Arab Palestinian Authority Security Forces. Last year there was being formed a larger force by Hamas operatives for the purpose of launching a coup against Fatah and taking over the Arab Palestinian Authority in a similar escalation which resulted in Gaza being run by Hamas outside of the Arab Palestinian Authority control and rule. The Hamas growing threat was detected by Israeli forces who arrested the leaders of the cell and the cell collapsed fragmenting without its leadership.

 

The breakout of firefights between Fatah al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade forces and the Arab Palestinian Authority Security Forces is a surprising development. The supporters of the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades forces lay all of the blame for instigating this situation by pressing their efforts against Fatah Activists Fayiz Arafat as part and parcel of their attempts to also take control over the Balata Refugee Camp wresting it from its local control and enforcement by the Fatah forces. This is not as far-fetched as it may at first appear as there has been any number of these situations recently. Some of the violence has occurred before but then mostly as isolated incidents. There was also the arrest and breakup of an ISIS cell in Hevron earlier this month and more such threats promise to appear as ISIS has gained strength by garnering recruits from both Fatah members and Hamas members plus anyone who have lost their faith in the faction’s ability to deliver on its promises of destroying Israel and instead seek out ISIS who have a record of being the stronger force capable of delivering on their promises for actions in place of words though we have seen little reservations. Should these differences continue to fracture the Arab society and place each group at the other groups’ throats with the violence constantly ramping upward becoming more serious, eventually destroying any hopes of the entire Arab community. Turning to ISIS will simply represent the Arab society proving that their intent was never to form their own state but solely to destroy the Jewish State of Israel. Such irreconcilable truth being exhibited will only serve to refute even their most ardent supporters’ claims that their intentions are of a limited nature and not having the complete destruction of Israel as their lifelong goal. Turning to ISIS will signal the end of the ability of even the Europeans and the lunatic fringe extreme leftists from denying the claim that the aims of the Palestinian society is destruction of Israel and not the construction of their own state.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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