Beyond the Cusp

September 29, 2015

Social Fabric is Being Torn Apart

 

The social fabric since the urbanization caused by the industrial revolution has taken the majority of mankind out of a rural setting and thrust us into a more urban environment. The question which should be occupying a large part of those pondering the future is how will our society adjust the social fabric when approaching one third initially and within this century well over three-quarters of what we consider now as the workforce not only not having gainful employment but no opportunity for employment as more and more occupations are performed by robotic systems. In a recent study Oxford University researchers have forecast that machines might be able to perform half of all jobs in the United States over the next two decades, and by implication the same will be true for the rest of the Western and Industrial nations and beyond. Once robotic workers are capable of executing an occupation, that occupation will be on a fast track to making the human employee a luxury, no employer will be capable of wasting further investments and instead will automate or perish before the competitors who have automated their workforce. Our societies throughout the world will need to adjust to a permanent unemployable class which will far outstrip the active workforce projecting sufficient tax revenues no matter what the taxation rate to support the remainder of society. But do not fret as the price of production and delivery of most goods will be delivered at a great savings which will continually become more efficient and less expensive to produce.

 

One example I recently read of compared the human workers to a former workhorse which powered much of our production either by providing the raw power or was at least required to bring the products to the public. This power and transportation utilized animals such as plowing with an oxen or mule, horse drawn wagons transporting goods from production to the consumers and any other animals mankind once relied upon. In our modern age the sole use for animals is recreation or as a raw material such as sheep for wool and food, cattle for food, dogs and cats as pets and so on with the animals no longer being used as a source of power within modern and industrialized societies. Where the horse drawn wagons and carriages were commonplace on the city streets of New York, Washington D.C, London, Paris and across the world; now a horse within the city limits for transportation is relegated today as some form of recreational use normally reserved for tourists such as carriage rides offered around Central Park in New Your City or central tourist areas in London and Paris and so on. This has caused a drastic drop in the horse population where they have become something that relatively wealthy people keep for their own use and the noble steed has passed its use-by date. The most telling replacement was made painfully obvious when at the start of World War II some of the finest cavalry troops saw their last in the Polish Army until January 27, 1947, when the 1st Warsaw Cavalry Division was disbanded. The initial breakout of World War II saw the attempt to use horse cavalry, as pictured below, in the field against German tanks; one can guess the end result was not too good for the cavalry.

 

Polish Uhlan cavalry armed with the wzor 35

 

The use of machinery initially to aid and augment human workforce was the driving technology of the industrial revolution. Power was initially provided by draft animals or water powered systems some of which have been found dating back well before the Industrial revolution to the Roman Empire. Eventually animals were replaced with steam engines followed soon thereafter by more efficient engines such as the internal combustion engine and also the use of electricity to power the factories using electric motors. Whatever the use in the modern factories of the industrial revolution it could be traced back to either hydropower or petroleum and natural gas powered electrical generators or direct use of fossil fuels as in trains, planes and automobiles. The terminology often used to describe the current stage is the information age though one could make an argument for the full utilization of programmable mechanisms. Such systems can trace their history back to the card operated weaving machines which often were water powered used in the making of cloth fabrics. With the development of the microchip we have seen an explosion in the variety of automated machines and had their size drastically reduced and made more agile and adaptable. These robotic units can be programmed or taken through a routine by a skilled operator and then allowed to simply repeat the process it was ‘trained’ to perform. Electronic automating has taken leaps forward to a point where virtually any manual task can be performed by an automated system even to the point of self-driving automobiles, buses, trains, trolleys, trams and other conveyances. Modern airports have installed moving floors to remove the necessity of having to actually walk to your terminal to board or disembark your flight. The exacting standards can and will be facilitated, and will only become more versatile in material and intricacy, as 3-D printing continues to be developed and integrated into the modern, fully-automated factory with robotic employees and a minimal human presence to basically monitor operations and hit the ‘stop’ button in case of, what will be made less common, an emergency or breakdown. What is frightening is there are robots being developed which would facilitate the repair of such a breakdown.

 

One thing I can attest to from my own work experience is that the printed circuit integrated boards have reached a level of sophistication and the manufacture of the integrated circuits made so affordable that the vast majority of these boards, or even modules, are less expensive to replace the entire part of the unit and send the malfunctioning board to be recycled or even destroyed (in an environmentally sensitive manner, of course). One industry which has turned to automation in a big way has been the automotive industry, both in their products and the assembly of the product (pictured below). The muscle of a robot is one of its major benefits as it never tires of doing its assigned tasks, never takes a break, is rarely ill or out of commission, does not complain and is very efficient. The latest addition to the productivity and versatility of the robotic assembler is that the software is almost to the point where a robot will be fully capable of replacing the majority of service jobs as well. In the future there may well be some upscale stores which will offer their patrons a level of service advertised as the most personal service one could expect, and such a boutique would actually have real flesh and blood people. What will be amazing is those people may even approach the efficiency, attentiveness, level of service and any other category except for speed and acute knowledge of the entirety of products available but otherwise just as good service as one can get from an automated shop. The basic for such a machine requires a special set of electronics which will have a microprocessor board which will contain any number of required CPUs (central processing unit), Memory ICs (both read/write and worm, write once-read many), support data ICs holding the AI (Artificial Intelligence) and the various switching, logic gates, and drivers (all of which look a lot alike to the chip displayed below). The current form of Artificial Intelligence in a robot can take many various forms each with their own special abilities and limitations. Some you might choose to have around the home to do the cleaning and be a walking-talking data base to provide information or even take your selfies and post them on Instagram, Facebook or whatever is the latest and greatest once we all have our personal assistant. (see below)

 

Modern Automotive Robotic Assemple Line

 

CPU Central Processing Unit Integrated Curcuit

 

 

Robotic Personal Assistant and Augmentation Suit

 

The predictions are that humans as a part of the workforce will be limited to personal touch niche and specialty markets but manufacturing will be fully automated within the next fifty years. Some of the effects of just sending many manufacturing plants overseas have had a huge debilitating effect of employment and pay scale of average incomes. Additionally, the United States has faced this drain in particular and it is not simply the income of the workforce which has driven many manufacturers overseas but rather the additional restraints and extra costs of making many products which drove them from American soil. The cost of pollution controls are quite stringent by comparison to the near nonexistence of such laws and restrictions in China and other markets. Taxes are another driving force pushing these jobs overseas. One has to realize what the extra costs with compliance with all the labor laws, inspections, building codes, noise limitations and the additional costs of employees with the new addition of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) which in and of itself has produced an expected quirk as far as new hires in the United States. Where part-time work for people employed from twenty to twenty-nine hours per week has increased measurably, some estimates place it as high as twenty-five percent with the average assessments placing it at approximately twenty percent but on the other end. Full-time employment figures have not only not increased as well but in most assessments has dropped approaching five percent. College graduates can expect lower starting wages with many even working in their field starting at below fifty-thousand dollars a year. This is after at the minimum of four years at an average cost of over one-hundred-thousand a year for room, board, books and other supplies and fees. There are also a record number of college graduates who have been forced to accept employment in other fields and at positions which do not require a college degree, and we are not talking about those who majored in Renaissance French Sonnets of the Sixteenth Century.

 

The coming explosion in robotics will be from two perspectives. The first will be the rapid advancement of AI (Artificial Intelligence) to levels where one would have some degree of difficulty determining if they are speaking with an actual person or a computed employee, basically a telephone operator robotic unit. There is work being done now that has computer programs that write the codes for use in robotic systems. There are cad/cam software programs which enable the computer to design the systems to meet specifications using modular designs which are becoming as complex and intricate as anything produced previously by human beings. The truly frightening thing is that we may soon have robots designing and programming their own improved models and able to implement the manufacture and production of their improved design. This also implies that robotic systems in the not too distant future will also be capable of rewriting their own software and improving themselves for their own purposes. Once the machines begin producing more powerful and more capable machines and are capable of writing the programs allowing these improved robots the ability to supercede the level of competence of the initial robot we will have, as the human race, made ourselves superfluous placing us beyond the cusp and onto the endangered species list as we will have just as much relevance to robots speaking their own invented language and, who knows, inventing their own programming language which will completely shut human kind out of the formula. Let us hope the robots of the future find us to be cute little humans and get a good laugh at the humans posting their exploits on the internet. The robots are coming, the robots are coming and many of them are here already and they are assisting the government in watching you.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 2, 2015

Israel’s Peace Partner Face Revealed on Facebook Posts

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,1967 Borders,24/7 News Reporting,Absolutism,Abu Mazzen,Act of War,Administration,al-Aqsa Mosque,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab Authority,Arab League,Arab World,Arabs,Benyamin Netanyahu,Blood Libel,Borders,Building Freeze,Civilization,Coverup,Dalal Mughrabi,East Jerusalem,Equality,European Media,European Pressure,Fatah,Fatah Charter,Forced Solution,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Government,Government Controlled Media,Green Line,Haaretz,Hamas,Hamas Charter,Hate,Holocaust,Hudna,International Politics,Intifada,Intifada,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Israeli Media,Jerusalem,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Home,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,Jordan River,Jordanian Pressure,Judea,Judean Hills,Kotel,Land for Peace,Leftist Pressures,Mahmoud Abbas,Mainstream Media,Media,Media Bias,Media Censorship,Media Intimidation,Mediterranean Sea,Mount of Olives,Mount of Olives Cemetary,Murder Americans,Murder Israelis,Muslim World,Muslims,Nahariya,Netanyahu,New Media,Old City,Omission,One State Solution,Oslo Accords,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Liberation Organization,Palestinian Media,Palestinian Pressures,Peace Partner,Peace Process,PLO,PLO Charter,Pogroms,Political Talk Shows,Politics,Post-Zionist,Pre-Conditions,President Obama,Prisoner Release,Red Lines,Refugee Camp,Refugees,Response to Muslim Takeover,Response to Terrorism,Samaria,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secular Interests,Security,Shoah,State Department,Statehood,Support Israel,Talking Heads,Tel Aviv,Television News,Temple Mount,Terror,Third Intifada,Threat of War,Tourism,UNESCO,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United Nations Relief and Works Agency,United States,United States Pressure,UNRWA,Western Wall,World Media,World Opinion,World Pressures,Yasser Arafat,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:22 AM
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The Palestinian Authority currently consists of what is euphemistically named Fatah Party, presumably just a political entity with no real documented terrorist activity and whose members have no terror history according to their communications with the western and world media. The reality is somewhat different as Fatah was simply a rebranding of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) which was tasked with the political management including direct control of the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, also referred to as the military arm of the Palestinians and the continued terror arm. Many of the officers in the Fatah Party were also commanders of the terrorist al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades and some al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades also belonged to the Fatah Party. Now the Fatah Party serves as one of the alternate aliases which Mahmoud Abbas, also known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mazen, can use as his title thus allowing for his sometimes, some might claim often, quotes which he uses when speaking to different Arab groups and does not actually desire to have those statements appearing in Print media or other news venues. Abu Mazen, or Mahmoud Abbas claims any number of titles which he can place before his chosen name for that hour including President of Palestine (used since the ruling making the Arab Palestinian observer’s status to representing a nonmember observer state instead of observer entity or other synonym), Chairman or President of the PLO or the Fatah Party, President of the Palestinian Authority or Chairman of the Palestinian Party. All these titles and different names are used to allow deniability by Mahmoud Abbas so when confronted with an actual quote of a statement made under one title he will simply state that he, as the President of the Palestinian Authority, President of Palestine, or any of his other titles other than the one used when making the quoted statement in question, never made such a statement and that he is personally hurt and offended that the media would try to put words in his mouth. This reply is then plastered all over the western media coverage thus putting to lie an actual statement made by Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) clearing his name and cleaning his reputation simply through the implementation of deceitful labeling of Abbas to avoid responsibility for actual words he has spoken.

 

Remains of Bus from March 11, 1978, Bus Bombing murdered 37 including 13 children and injured 70 Coast Road attack planned by Abu Jihad attack led by Dalal Mughrabi

Remains of Bus from March 11, 1978, Bus Bombing murdered 37 including 13 children and injured 70 Coast Road attack planned by Abu Jihad attack led by Dalal Mughrabi

 

This particular item appearing on the Fatah Facebook page pictured above was the work by two of the PLOs greater terror masters as the attack was planned by Abu Jihad attack led by Dalal Mughrabi. Dalal Mughrabi has been lionized by the Fatah, PLO, al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades as well as by the Palestinian Authority which has named a girls’ school after her, a park, numerous streets and thoroughfares, near countless events and is often taught as a role model for and Arab Palestinian girls to emulate and to be able to attain the great success Dalal Mughrabi had attained in this one spectacular assault on the hated and accursed Israeli Jews, though often the words substituted or used to embellish “Jew” would be inappropriate to relate here. The latest posting by Fatah on Facebook yesterday is not something that unusual as often terrorist attacks and their murderous martyrs are emblazoned across the Facebook pages with great flare and professional stylizing and embellishments aggrandizing their “accomplishments” and their “exemplary lives and martyring of their lives” in service to their people. There are often Facebook postings lauding terrorists and especially those who died in the commission of their acts of terror thus earning exultation as a result of murdering Israeli civilians and even tourists visiting Israel as by visiting they become legitimate targets according to the Arab framework of reasoning. Students are taught to hope to achieve such martyrdom status and it is shown how their attaining martyrdom in the service of the Arab Palestinian cause will also bring great honor to their families as well as wealth from a stipend paid to all families of martyrs. This stipend, just as the salaries of those incarcerated in Israeli prisons for committing terrorist acts are paid according to the numbers of victims of their actions and bonuses for any high level Jews or other Jews or Israelis of particular interest such as the terrorist attempted assassination of Yehuda Glick, a Temple Rights activist leader, (there are no such prisoners for the most part in the Palestinian Authority prisons as any terrorist if found guilty is given a sentence which is commuted within a few days or even as long as a couple of weeks before they are released to continue their work as terrorists). Thus are the actions of the Arab Palestinian society which are taught in their schools including the UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East) schools which the United Nations holds are pillars of virtue and teach only the basics same as any other school would with subjects like mathematics, Arabic reading and writing, the sciences and physical education. What the United Nations fails to report is that in Gaza the majority of the UNRWA teachers are active Hamas members and in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) the teachers are often officers from Fatah Party, the PLO, the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades officers, or other terror tied individuals. But such must not be reported and instead should be shielded from the light of day revealing the truth behind the all-encompassing wall of lies.

 

The remains of the bus pictured from that horrific raid which had one of, if not the highest toll of innocent civilians whose only crime was being Israelis and riding a bus, they did not necessarily need to be Jews as the bus very likely could have been carrying non-Jews on that fateful day of March 11, 1978. Those murdered in this attack had been on an outing of sun, fun, swimming, sightseeing and picnics before their day and many of their lives were hijacked and taken for a ride of horrors as this was a chartered bus carrying Egged bus drivers and their families on a day outing along the Coastal Highway. This is what Fatah posted on their Facebook page yesterday to celebrate this glorious event and martyrdom mission where nine of the thirteen terrorist murderers were dispatched to their martyrdom including the most widely celebrated woman of Arab Palestinian fame and history, Dalal Mughrabi. The title accompanying the picture stated “Take Your Dead And Get Out” and was obviously targeting the Jews of Israel. Within the accompanying article were the following quotes referencing for the Israeli Jews to leave Israel, and “take their dead with them.” The posting reported an inflated number of Israelis murdered putting it at eighty when the reality was that the terrorist assaults murdered thirty-seven injured eighty-five innocent civilian bus drivers and their families. The post credited Dalal Mughrabi, a usual inclusion as stated her name is used often to be an example for girls to emulate and for boys to try and at least equal the great achievement of the woman thus challenging their male egos, for leading the actions which, “declared the establishment of the Republic of Palestine in the occupied territories. The enemy admitted that 30 Zionists died in this action, but the number was reportedly over 80.” The original plan had been to storm and seize a luxury hotel in Tel Aviv and take visiting tourists so as to maximize their leverage as such would also threaten the Israeli tourist economy and internationalize the Arab-Israeli Arab Palestinian driven challenges against Israel and gaining support as the Israeli actions would likely cause the deaths of many of the hostages as well as any foreign ambassadors also taken hostage all with the aim to exchange them for Palestinian prisoners or take with them as martyred for the Arab cause. They landed forty miles north of Tel Aviv and never reached their intended area as Israeli forces and police blocked the road a full eleven miles north of the Tel Aviv city limits. This was where the Arab Palestinian terrorists murdered as many Israelis as they were able and completely destroyed the bus before nine of the eleven who made it this far, two drowned after falling from their rubber dingy during the trip down the coast from Lebanon, were killed and the two remaining were arrested.

 

It was from the two surviving terrorists that the Israelis learned of the full extent of the carnage wrought which included their initial meeting of American photographer Gail Rubin who was simply taking nature shots and who informed the terrorists of their location and the distance to Tel Aviv. After getting their desired information they murdered American Gail Rubin who was the daughter of then United States Senator Abraham A. Ribicoff. After proceeding south along the highway and opening fire at passing cars they hijacked a white Mercedes taxi murdering the driver and his fares taking this as their transportation. This is when they came across the charter bus and hijacked the bus and proceeded on towards Tel Aviv after having tied a number of passengers to their seats. They noted a car following them behind and began suspecting something was not right so after a while they pulled over and as the vehicle was passing they shot the car injuring the arm of the father driving and horrifying the mother in the seat next to him and a bullet passed through the front seat and struck their teenage son sleeping in the back seat in the head murdering him instantly. The terrorist bus continued south until reaching a roadblock where they destroyed the Bus and murdered as many of the passengers as possible while engaging the troops manning the roadblock. As noted, nine of the eleven terrorists including Dalal Mughrabi, who was identified as having shot American photographer Gail Rubin murdering her immediately.

 

These are the wonderful, caring, law-abiding and moral persons with whom the world desires that Israel provide an independent state which will sit perched on the heights of the Judean and Samarian hills overlooking Tel Aviv and the heart of industrial, residential and commercial Israel and a straight shot at the aircraft leaving and landing at Ben Gurion International Airport. These are the same people who sided with Saddam Hussein during the First Gulf War and were subsequently evicted with great prejudice by the people and government of Kuwait which revoked the work visas and other visas of over three-hundred-thousand Arab Palestinians, yet for reasons easily understood, nobody has ever demanded that the Kuwaitis rehire and give the jobs back to the Arab Palestinians, instead it was understood that they posed a threat that the Kuwaitis simply refused to live with. So, why is the world hoping, nay, forcing as best they can, that Israel either allow to live as neighbors overlooking the majority of Israeli economic heartlands and its residential heartlands or possibly accepting the majority of these Arab Palestinians within Israeli borders? What do these world powers and leaders desire, is it the end of Israel as the Jewish State and the slaughter of over six-million Jews in a second Holocaust? Well, as there had been little if any notice to this latest and the thousands, nay, hundreds-of-thousands of Facebook postings and Tweets on Twitter glorifying terrorists and celebrating the murders of Jews even including the horrific attack on leading Jewish Rabbis during their morning prayers in a Jerusalem Synagogue within the past year, all one can conclude is affirmation of these genocidal postings by the rest of the world who ignore these threats and continue endlessly to force Israeli appeasement of these savages and capitulation to their ever more expansive demands is due to their vile and spiteful hatreds which drive their desires for the complete and utter destruction of the Jews and their state of Israel with the caveat that the deeds be accomplished without any demands for actions from those forcing this tripe using passive support disguised as compassionate policies. Many who bother to watch these empowerments largely by the Europeans, other Arab entities, Muslim supporters, and the United States State Department and those holding animosities towards Israel and the Israeli Jews realize the truth behind these efforts are but accomplices before, during and after the fact though all is usually encapsulated in polite statements using generalities and acceptance of the facade put forth by Mahmoud Abbas and others to disguise their intentions behind numerous press statements, treaties, accords and other false fronts which facilitate their deceit and denial of hatreds which have deeply infected their societies for generations beyond counting. All that is requested is be a neutral entity standing at a distance ignoring all that transpires unless it directly affects you. Hopefully that does not prove to be all that difficult though I am assured there will be those who simply cannot stop themselves and there lies the real problem which amplifies a minor problem which has been intentionally allowed to fester into a major catastrophe of its own making and there are those who cannot but jump up and down screaming that it is the Jews fault that refugee camps in Syria have been overrun by ISIS and now nobody will be able to figure out which Syrian refugees deserve to be Arabs of Palestinian original residence. What is feared here is the world will simply demand that all the Syrian refugees be allowed to reside in Israel, why not just pile on a few million more refugees, it will make the end of Israel come all the quicker. We have a simple response to such haters, Never Again!!

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 1, 2015

P5+1 and Iran Six Month Working Nuclear Agreement

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While rummaging through the news online, in my e-mails and the various other eye-straining sources which have taken near complete control of what is otherwise a retirement in heaven I came across, much to my surprise, and transcript from CNN reputing to be of the soon to be completed next step in the Iran nuclear program negotiations with the P5+1. What is perhaps the biggest surprise was the qualifier that this agreement is only good for the next six months beyond its signing date by which time a fully flushed out agreement is expected to be ready to present for the final agreement signing ceremony. I am not entirely sure if this makes our former prediction that there would not be another extension of the negotiations as the parties are not calling this an extension though it really feels a lot like the former six month extensions even if this presents an original agreement framework which they claim requires some additional tweaks, definitions, additions and alterations. There are plenty of mentions of which sanctions will be terminated, what funds which will be released, what items shall be placed beyond the influences or hands of the world even should the talks collapse before the final completed agreement is molded, twisted, mutilated and otherwise tortured into existence. Now for the spoiler but I am afraid this is necessary, there is one particular stipulation in this agreement which should send chills up and down any concerned individual’s spine as it sets up a situation which is completely unconscionable for any United States President or any of the President’s advisors, Cabinet Secretaries or other Administrations personnel from remaining a member of the government of any United States President who would approve and sign such a stipulation. Here is that singular stipulation.

“The U.S. Administration, acting consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Congress, will refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.”

With such a restriction in place there is no longer anything for the Iranians to fear henceforth into the future even should the supposed fleshed out version will never be produced as this extends complete immunity into the future without any mitigating factor or exception into perpetuity as far as we can tell. This sentence being included is such an insult to the Congress that any President agreeing to its inclusion and or Secretary of State, negotiating team member or advisors of the President or Secretary of State not demanding this be removed or they will remove themselves from their service in this shameful Administration are displaying a contemptible disrespect to the Congress and the American people. But anyone who has followed this fiasco from its inception under the watchful eye of President Obama has likely realized long ago that the main principle of the negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran, especially since President Obama and his Secretary of State and State Department took command to direct the negotiations the apparent aim has been to drag the negotiations out while protecting Iran from any military option being implemented against their nuclear sites even releasing confidential communications informing the White House of intent to mount a military resolution to prevent Iran attaining breakout conditions or worse, actual nuclear weapons production, only to have their plans or preparations leaked to the media often embarrassing those allied to take such measures and destroying their plans forcing the cancellation of such previously secret preparations and alliances. This stipulation in the agreement being proffered will permanently remove the United States from any efforts to prevent Iran from reaching the breakout point to industrial production of nuclear weapons allowing their building a nuclear arsenal.

 

Much of the remainder of what I interpreted from my reading it once through was that where the United States and likely the rest of the western world which relies on the United States in most military matters and would be incapable for launching a preemptive strike completely on their own will now face an Iranian enrichment industry which will only be restricted from full industrial uranium enrichment will face a United States handcuffed from taking meaningful actions. In return for the United States handcuffing itself Iran has promised to restrict their nuclear program and for the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) to inspect and verify that the Iranians remain committed to and restricted by their promises demanded from this framework, and remember it is actually just that, a framework. Like a framework of a house, skyscraper, bridge, or any construction, there are gaping spaces throughout the structure which allow for things to pass through, in, out and around without much resistance or impediments. The one item we all can be completely assured about is that Iran will test and utilize every last gap in the framework to get around limitations and discomforts which might impinge on their attaining sufficient amounts of unaccounted for LEU (low enriched uranium) which would provide them with the starter uranium to produce as many as a dozen nuclear devices within six to nine months as long as they are careful and plan the times for inspections and provide the right formulas and predicted yields to the IAEA thus permitting their skimming off of a relatively significant amount of LEU over the period of a year or two.

 

Many believe that the IAEA inspections are very strict and intense thus making cheating nearly impossible. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The IAEA inspectors rely on the nation they are assigned to inspect to provide then with the information about their operations in enriching uranium including the levels intended, the amounts of ore will be used to produce yellowcake (uranium hexafluoride UF6), how much additional yellowcake they will import and the expected yields from their enrichment. To give an idea of how far off the predictions can be, in 2009 Iran “miscalculated” in their reports to the IAEA which underestimated their production and actually over-producing their estimates by over thirty percent. Imagine how quickly a clandestine series of cascaded centrifuges stashed in an underground hidden location that Iran could be producing nuclear weapons while appearing for intents and purposes to be honestly keeping all of their promises and nobody would be the wiser until time had run out and Iran has their nuclear arsenal and joined the nuclear club. There have been reports that the most recent series of centrifuges Iran is producing themselves are so far productive and superior to their earlier centrifuges that they are now capable of taking even LEU at five percent can be enriched to weapons grade in a manner similar to what they used to be capable of performing only with twenty-percent enriched uranium previously. The other main item that needs to be spread is that this agreement only is enforceable for six months and should no further deal be patched together it will likely mean the end of negotiations without any deal, the end to IAEA inspections, the termination of any Iranian cooperation and Iran attaining breakout nuclear capabilities within the ensuing year to year and a half. As horrific as such a predicament might be the ensuing consequences would be unthinkable.

 

The immediate consequences to an Iranian nuclear bomb would be daunting enough as it would make the many allied terror groups such as Hezballah, Hamas and other such entities mostly under the indirect control of the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) and span the globe come under the nuclear umbrella from Iran and thus having free hands to spread terror attacks without worry. The long-range ramification would be the immediate nuclear arms race across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt leading the charge. There would be pressures in Israel to reinitiate their nuclear program, assuming they ever had one which they have never officially admitted. Eventually the nuclear arms race in MENA would spread to the nations of Europe and South America as well as potentially the remainder of Africa thus tearing so many holes in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Member nations would be announcing their intent to leave the treaty and many unlikely to even wait the prescribed period before launching full-speed into producing nuclear weapons. They would drop faster than the leaves of autumn caught by the winds of a hurricane drop from their trees, and with a similar speed are heading towards nuclear weapons. Imagine a world where every border dispute, every insulted leader, every old rivalry or almost any slight or offence setting off a standoff and posturing between two recently nuclear armed nations who might not reflect sufficiently on the consequences of using nuclear weapons or expecting that their first strike would sufficiently harm their adversary that they would be incapable of making a response, an underestimation of the desire for revenge more than likely. This agreement could very well be regarded by history as the jumping off point which led the whole world within the most minute of distances from entering a post-apocalyptic world as depicted in too many movies. Read the agreement and let us know where you feel it may lead and what should be done and by whom, it might prove interesting. Below is the framework, framework, I am beginning to hate that word.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

 

This transcript c/o CNN online.

Geneva, 24 November 2013

Joint Plan of Action

Preamble

The goal for these negotiations is to reach a mutually-agreed long-term comprehensive solution that would ensure Iran’s nuclear programme will be exclusively peaceful. Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek or develop any nuclear weapons. This comprehensive solution would build on these initial measures and result in a final step for a period to be agreed upon and the resolution of concerns. This comprehensive solution would enable Iran to fully enjoy its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the relevant articles of the NPT in conformity with its obligations therein. This comprehensive solution would involve a mutually defined enrichment programme with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the peaceful nature of the programme. This comprehensive solution would constitute an integrated whole where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. This comprehensive solution would involve a reciprocal, step-by-step process, and would produce the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions, as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme.

There would be additional steps in between the initial measures and the final step, including, among other things, addressing the UN Security Council resolutions, with a view toward bringing to a satisfactory conclusion the UN Security Council’s consideration of this matter. The E3+3 and Iran will be responsible for conclusion and implementation of mutual near-term measures and the comprehensive solution in good faith. A Joint Commission of E3/EU+3 and Iran will be established to monitor the implementation of the near-term measures and address issues that may arise, with the IAEA responsible for verification of nuclear-related measures. The Joint Commission will work with the IAEA to facilitate resolution of past and present issues of concern.

Elements of a first step

The first step would be time-bound, with a duration of 6 months, and renewable by mutual consent, during which all parties will work to maintain a constructive atmosphere for negotiations in good faith.
Iran would undertake the following voluntary measures:

  • • From the existing uranium enriched to 20%, retain half as working stock of 20% oxide for fabrication of fuel for the TRR. Dilute the remaining 20% UF6 to no more than 5%. No reconversion line.
    • Iran announces that it will not enrich uranium over 5% for the duration of the 6 months.
    • Iran announces that it will not make any further advances of its activities at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant , Fordow or the Arak reactor designated by the IAEA as IR-40.•
    • Beginning when the line for conversion of UF6 enriched up to 5% to UO2 is ready, Iran has decided to convert to oxide UF6 newly enriched up to 5% during the 6 month period, as provided in the operational schedule of the conversion plant declared to the IAEA.•
    • No new locations for the enrichment.
    • Iran will continue its safeguarded R&D practices, including its current enrichment R&D practices, which are not designed for accumulation of the enriched uranium.
    • No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.
    • Enhanced monitoring:o Provision of specified information to the IAEA, including information on Iran’s plans for nuclear facilities, a description of each building on each nuclear site, a description of the scale of operations for each location engaged in specified nuclear activities, information on uranium mines and mills, and information on source material. This information would be provided within three months of the adoption of these measures.
    o Submission of an updated DIQ for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40, to the IAEA.
    o Steps to agree with the IAEA on conclusion of the Safeguards Approach for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40. Daily IAEA inspector access when inspectors are not present for the purpose of Design Information Verification, Interim Inventory Verification, Physical Inventory Verification, and unannounced inspections, for the purpose of access to offline surveillance records, at Fordow and Natanz.
    o IAEA inspector managed access to:
     centrifuge assembly workshops ;
     centrifuge rotor production workshops and storage facilities; and,
     uranium mines and mills.

    In return, the E3/EU+3 would undertake the following voluntary measures:
  •  Pause efforts to further reduce Iran’s crude oil sales, enabling Iran’s current customers to purchase their current average amounts of crude oil. Enable the repatriation of an agreed amount of revenue held abroad. For such oil sales, suspend the EU and U.S. sanctions on associated insurance and transportation services.
     Suspend U.S. and EU sanctions on:
    o Iran’s petrochemical exports, as well as sanctions on associated services.
    o Gold and precious metals, as well as sanctions on associated services.
     Suspend U.S. sanctions on Iran’s auto industry, as well as sanctions on associated services.
     License the supply and installation in Iran of spare parts for safety of flight for Iranian civil aviation and associated services. License safety related inspections and repairs in Iran as well as associated services.
     No new nuclear-related UN Security Council sanctions.
     No new EU nuclear-related sanctions.
     The U.S. Administration, acting consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Congress, will refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.
     Establish a financial channel to facilitate humanitarian trade for Iran’s domestic needs using Iranian oil revenues held abroad. Humanitarian trade would be defined as transactions involving food and agricultural products, medicine, medical devices, and medical expenses incurred abroad. This channel would involve specified foreign banks and non-designated Iranian banks to be defined when establishing the channel.
    o This channel could also enable:
     transactions required to pay Iran’s UN obligations; and,
     direct tuition payments to universities and colleges for Iranian students studying abroad, up to an agreed amount for the six month period.
     Increase the EU authorisation thresholds for transactions for non-sanctioned trade to an agreed amount.

Elements of the final step of a comprehensive solution

The final step of a comprehensive solution, which the parties aim to conclude negotiating and commence implementing no more than one year after the adoption of this document, would:

  •  Have a specified long-term duration to be agreed upon.
     Reflect the rights and obligations of parties to the NPT and IAEA SafeguardsAgreements.
     Comprehensively lift UN Security Council, multilateral and national nuclear-related sanctions, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy, on a schedule to be agreed upon.
     Involve a mutually defined enrichment programme with mutually agreed parameters consistent with practical needs, with agreed limits on scope and level of enrichment activities, capacity, where it is carried out, and stocks of enriched uranium, for a period to be agreed upon.
     Fully resolve concerns related to the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40. No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.
     Fully implement the agreed transparency measures and enhanced monitoring. Ratify and implement the Additional Protocol, consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Majlis (Iranian parliament).
     Include international civil nuclear cooperation, including among others, on acquiring modern light water power and research reactors and associated equipment, and the supply of modern nuclear fuel as well as agreed R&D practices.
    Following successful implementation of the final step of the comprehensive solution for its full duration, the Iranian nuclear programme will be treated in the same manner as that of any non-nuclear weapon state party to the NPT.

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i) Namely, during the 6 months, Iran will not feed UF6 into the centrifuges installed but not enriching uranium. Not install additional centrifuges. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.

ii) At Fordow, no further enrichment over 5% at 4 cascades now enriching uranium, and not increase enrichment capacity. Not feed UF6 into the other 12 cascades, which would remain in a non-operative state. No interconnections between cascades. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.

iii) Iran announces on concerns related to the construction of the reactor at Arak that for 6 months it will not commission the reactor or transfer fuel or heavy water to the reactor site and will not test additional fuel or produce more fuel for the reactor or install remaining components.

iv) Consistent with its plans, Iran’s centrifuge production during the 6 months will be dedicated to replace damaged machines.

v) “Sanctions on associated services” means any service, such as insurance, transportation, or financial, subject to the underlying U.S. or EU sanctions applicable, insofar as each service is related to the underlying sanction and required to facilitate the desired transactions. These services could involve any non-designated Iranian entities.

vi) Sanctions relief could involve any non-designated Iranian airlines as well as Iran Air.

vii) With respect to the final step and any steps in between, the standard principle that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” applies.

 

 

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