Why Obama Will Continue to Ignore Alarms by Netanyahu

There are a number of reasons working together, any one of which is sufficient to turn President Obama’s hearing off when Netanyahu gives any warnings about the Middle East or even the greater world. The major impetus behind the wall President Obama has placed to block Netanyahu out derives from the belief in President Obama’s mind that he knows more about what is happening in the Middle East and who can be trusted and which leaders he needs to woo and that his being raised in Indonesia gives him experiences and an innate knowledge which he believes will prove him correct in the end. Part of this insider knowledge that President Obama relies on is his familiarity with Islamic beliefs and society of Indonesia of his youth. No matter how many experts make claims that the form of Islam practiced in Indonesia at the time that President Obama resided there was completely different than the forms of Islam being practiced today in the Middle East and North Africa as well as the Islamist Madrassas around the Western World, President Obama is determined to prove that he knows best. President Obama’s pridefulness and inability to admit to his own mistakes, especially in matters concerning the Middle East and the Islamic World make for a combination where changing his perceptions on such subjects is simply impossible. The best examples of the President’s inability to adapt or incorporate new information if it does not fit his carefully crafted view of how he believes things to be can be found in Egypt and Turkey as well as the obvious, Israel.

 

In Egypt President Obama still holds to the policy which dictates that the Muslim Brotherhood is, as then Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said at a House Intelligence Committee hearing, “The Muslim Brotherhood is a very heterogeneous group, largely secular.” Group that “has eschewed violence and has decried Al Qaeda as a perversion of Islam” and “have pursued social ends, a betterment of the political order in Egypt.” He added that the Muslim Brotherhood, which has branches in many Muslim countries, has “no overarching agenda, particularly in pursuit of violence, at least internationally.” President Obama also believes that the Freedom and Justice Party’s President Morsi won the first elections after the removal of former strong man and American longtime ally President Mubarak in a totally free election in which there were no improprieties despite evidence to the contrary and that the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood was the most organized and the only group in a position to organize and conduct a coherent campaign and thus guaranteed to win the election. President Obama has also chosen to ignore the fact that Egyptian people in the tens of millions protested, signed petitions and carried out the most massive popular revolution calling for the removal of President Morsi. The protests to remove President Morsi were actually larger and more invigorated than those a little over a year earlier which dethroned Mubarak. President Obama prefers to believe and act as if the Egyptian Military acted solely on their own without any mandate from the people and has even gone so far as to blame all of the violence on the Egyptian Military totally absolving the Muslim Brotherhood of any guilt. Any casual observer of the violence being perpetrated against the Egyptian people, especially the Coptic Christians and any non-Sunni Muslims would easily see the evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda are behind much of the violence evidenced by the black flag and the Muslim Brotherhood banner being carried by the gangs violently attacking the people and intentionally attempting to destroy Egypt if they are not returned to power.

 

Then there is Turkey and President Obama’s declared bestest friend in the Middle East, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As we noted close to a decade ago and has been commented upon by numerous Middle Eastern experts, Prime Minister Erdogan has been slowly but surely moving the Turkish governance from a secular governance into a Sharia governance. Prime Minister Erdogan had warned Egyptian President Morsi very early in his time in office that he should emulate the example that Prime Minister Erdogan had used in Turkey of small increments and taking one’s time and not rushing or pushing the people too quickly so that they did not revolt to the sudden changes and the potentially unpopular proponents of Sharia. Morsi did not listen and if the violent protests which have gripped Turkey of late are any evidence, even taking the slow but steady change from secular to Sharia did not prove successful either. Add to this that the reaction from the Turkish government was just announced by the Justice and Interior ministries that people can now be jailed if they think about protesting against the government. Meanwhile, as the Egyptian Military is backing the temporary government by destroying the majority of smuggling tunnels from the Sinai into the Hamas stronghold of Gaza in order to prevent Hamas, an arm of the Muslim Brotherhood formed to attack Israel, from smuggling terrorists back into the Sinai to attack Egyptian villages and military outposts, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has invited and met for the third time this past year Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal. Of course this does not appear to cause President Obama any concern as he just announced a $200 million program under which Turkey and Qatar will develop materials aimed at promoting the Muslim Brotherhood’s Islamist agenda while cutting off military aid to Egypt until they reinstate Muslim Brotherhood representative Morsi to the Presidency. Also, do not expect any apology any time in the foreseeable future to come from President Obama to Prime Minister Netanyahu for forcing him to apologize to Prime Minister Erdogan over the actions on the blockade runner Mavi Marmara where nine terrorists died after they posed a fatal threat as they attacked Israeli Special Forces who boarded the ship to enforce the blockade with paintball guns loaded with pepper-balls and were attacked with knives, steel rods, and other small arms. The closest that Turkey has come to making any return gesture to Israel has been complete and rudely given refusals to accept the apology and the obvious warming gestures with Hamas which may soon result with Hamas moving their headquarters from Qatar to Turkey.

 

Further proof of President Obama’s affections for the Muslim Brotherhood has been obvious in Syria where the only thing preventing full United States support of the Rebel forces has been the warnings and threats from Russia and China. The only times that President Obama has taken steps which may have proven advantageous for Syrian dictator President Bashir al-Assad has been the leaking of information proving the suspicions that Israel had been behind attacks that prevented the transfer of chemical weapons, advanced anti-air and anti-ship missiles presumably supplied by Russia, and other advanced weapons systems or game changing weapons that provided significant upgrades to Hezballah’s abilities. The sole threat of American intervention came in a threat to Syrian President al-Assad primarily when President Obama said, “We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized. That would change my calculus. That would change my equation.” This brought about the now infamous backpedaling and stalling until Russian President Putin supplied President Obama a get untangled from your tongue alternative which he, of course, took immediately. Of course, many have pointed out that Syria is a no win proposition and what would probably serve the future best would be a prolonged conflict where the civilians who remain were permitted to leave or be provided safe-zones and eventually have, strangely enough, President al-Assad remain in power even if he ruled a small area while the rest of Syria was divided between the Kurds and the other forces. The one result we would like to have from all the turmoil and violence, especially in Syria and Iraq, would be a Kurdish state combining the Kurdish controlled areas in northern Iraq and north-east Syria, but that may simply be a dream as the Kurds have historically been treated poorly and denied their promised homeland simply because J. P. Getty wanted the central Iraqi oil fields which was within the areas promised the Kurds after World War I, and one thing anybody familiar with the broken promises to the Jews after World War I knows is just how unfairly the British were with the Kurds.

 

The final country which President Obama has taken as far back a seat as possible allowing even the Europeans to show definitively more leadership than he, is Iran. Yes, after years of wrestling with the Europeans President Obama has been dragged to a point where the sanctions on Iran are having their intended effect. The Iranians, masters in chess and the art of deception, have played their hand masterly with their choice of Hasan Rouhani as their new President and face before the world. He contrasts with former President Ahmadinejad nearly perfectly and has been hailed by an overanxious West as the revelation of a new and open Iran. He has been hailed as approachable and having shown an honest intention to make changes and reveal the entirety of the Iranian nuclear program with an honesty that will be unquestionable. This is all well and good except that it is a complete and total fabrication. President Hasan Rouhani was formerly the lead negotiator for the Iranians in their nuclear talks and as such he glad-handed and smiled his way adroitly avoiding revealing anything about the Iranian nuclear program as he also oversaw the installation of thousands of centrifuges. He was proven to be a masterful deceiver who was well spoken and had a full understanding of the West and the weaknesses of each person with whom he would need to deal. Adding to this is the fact that absolutely nothing has changed in the actual power structure in Iran. They have the same Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who is the real power and very likely the person most responsible for Hasan Rouhani’s election. The twelve on the Council of Guardians, six of whom are appointed by the Supreme Leader, have not changed and were responsible for choosing who would be permitted on the ballot in the elections. Since virtually all of the real power rests with the Council of Guardians and the Supreme Leader, nothing in Iran has changed except they have a new puppet to place on the world stage and apparently that is sufficient for a Western World who wish to find any reason to avoid having to face the facts that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons and is very likely to either use them or threaten their use in order to have a nuclear umbrella that guards their terrorist attacks across the globe. President Obama sees in Iran his chance to receive another Nobel Peace Prize and honestly believes his oratory abilities will sway the Iranians from their pursuit of nuclear weapons. The only times that President Obama might decide to take any real actions against Iran would be in order to force concessions from Prime Minister Netanyahu to the Palestinian. Even then his promise will more likely be broken and in the end if the negotiations do not produce the result he envisions as equitable and fair final peace treaty, which is the complete capitulation by Israel of all lands and every one of the Palestinian demands even including some form of Right of Return for millions of Palestinian refugees, President Obama is considering forcing a peace of his liking on the Israelis even if it requires a Chapter VII Security Council Resolution granting the Palestinians the entire enchilada with the threat of military enforcement by the nations willing to enforce the United Nation edict. President Obama is going to be the first man in history to win the Nobel Peace Prize before he did anything to earn it and then his efforts to prove he deserved it resulting in starting World War III. What a legacy.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

President Obama Preserving What Influence in Egypt?

There has been a repeated story in the news over the weeks since the removal of Egyptian President Morsi by the Egyptian military headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi claiming that United States President Barack Obama and his administration are treading carefully in order to preserve their influence which they may need to wield in the future. There are constant references to the Obama Administration’s wise avoidance of calling the actions by the Egyptian military a coup in order to preserve their ability to provide Egypt with much needed funds. Of course the claim is that these funds are the main influence the United States holds. There are so many problems with this story line that it is difficult to decide where to start. To be fully honest, making any reference to influence with anyone in the world that the United States still possesses outside of the Israelis is laughable; and the only reason the administration can influence the Israelis is that they actually require the American United Nations Security Council veto to hold off the complete isolation that would ensue should they not possess that saving grace or a similar promise from one of the other four members, Britain, France, Russia or China, all of which either have open animosities with Israel or are close allies of nations such as many of the Muslim and Arab states who would sponsor sanctions destructive to Israel. So, maybe we should not call what the United States has to force the Israelis to cooperate even against their better judgment so much as influence as the Obama administration wields the Sword of Damocles above Israel’s neck.

 

Meanwhile, back to take a quick look around the world for examples of the unbelievable level, or lack of level, of influence President Obama and, by inference, the United States possess almost anywhere across the world. We have all either heard, read, witnessed or some combination the complete lack of regard and respect dished out on both President Obama and his Secretary of State John Kerry by Russian President Putin. When the sole praise the in-the-bag media were able to laud President Obama over regarding Russian President Putin was President Obama cancelling a meeting with Putin before an economic conference that was to be held in Russia recently. Unfortunately the press did not deem it worthy to cover President Putin’s reaction and we missed that as it likely would have been quite amusing. The last time a Russian in high position bothered to even listen to what President Obama had to say was before Putin returned to his office as President and Medvedev held the Presidency as a placeholder and puppet of Vladimir Putin. There may have been a reason that even Medvedev agreed to hear what President Obama wished to communicate as this was the meeting we all heard what was said by President Obama due to an unrealized open microphone which revealed his statements, “On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this, this can be solved but it’s important for him to give me space.” Medvedev promised to inform Putin of Obama’s need after which President Obama continued, “This is my last election. After my election, I have more flexibility.” Medvedev affirmed he understood and would carry the message to Vladimir for Obama. Perhaps the subservience announced in this exchange is partially responsible for Russian President Putin’s disregard and disrespect for the American President.

 

In a completely different arena the newly anointed new dear leader of North Korea President Kim Jong-un, some have referred to the twenty-eight-year-old ruler and a child due to his extremely youthful appearance, was exercising his boasts as is the usual first act of new leaders in North Korea. They make claims, launch missiles, reopen formerly closed nuclear research and development sites and threaten to launch a massive attack on South Korea and the United States. This is nothing new and their ignoring any pressures from the President of the United States for one or, at most, two missile launches and then they historically have backed off of their nuclear development threats and return to being mostly a non-issue soon after. This usually follows an intervention by China often at the request of the United States President among others. As per usual, the new leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un, started making test missile launches, reopened closed nuclear labs, threatened South Korea and the United States, moved troops, missiles and artillery units towards the south and other saber rattling. Kim Jong-un ignored everything President Obama demanded which is to be expected and does not reflect on Obama’s ability to influence events. But when President Obama made requests for the Chinese leaders to restrain the North Korean leader the Chinese simply refused to do anything of the sort. President Obama and a number of his Administration all repeatedly requested the Chinese intervene but to no avail. That was another indication of lack of influence.

 

More examples could be given from Europe, Asia, South America, but let us return instead to Egypt. President Obama’s being pretty much ignored by the Egyptian military leadership is not entirely due to his lack of gravitas, much of it has to do with the fact that the Egyptian military is actually acting at the insistence of the majority of the Egyptian population and fulfilling their role as protectors of the people. Another reason they are ignoring the entreats and demands from President Obama is that they honestly do not care what he has to say nor do they care much what anybody wants as they are working to salvage their country from being transformed into a Sharia observant Islamist State and retain their secular liberties or at least some hope of realizing such liberties. President Obama and his administration have silently exerted every ounce of influence they have short of a public denouncing the Egyptian military for having executed a military coup. The reason that President Obama is avoiding such a label is by declaring Egypt to be under the rule resulting from a military coup the United States would be forced by act of law to cut all financial aid to Egypt permanently. President Obama has silently scaled back aid to Egypt to a point where virtually if not all military aid to Egypt has been suspended. The administration confirms this while asserting that this is possibly just a temporary measure which could be reversed in the near future. The difficulty for President Obama and his administration is cutting off aid to the Egyptian military is having absolutely no effect as the Royals of Saudi Arabia have already made up the difference and promised to provide the Egyptian military with much if not all the aid they may require in their efforts to provide Egypt with a political scene free of the influences from the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists. The Saudis are in total support of Egypt remaining a mostly secular nation and out of the clutches or influence of Islamists which may position Egypt with those who oppose Saudi Arabia’s loose alliance of Arab states. The Saudi Arabian Royal family took this move as a direct response negating the attempt by President Obama to exercise financial pressure and influence on the Egyptian military leadership. The Saudi Arabian leadership has taken a number of steps recently that have as their source their suspicions that President Obama is not really their friend, is not about to do anything to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons, and to simply show President Obama that they are going to do whatever it takes even if they have to run over President Obama and all of his efforts and designs in the Middle East. The Saudi Royals not only have no respect for President Obama, they have taken up opposition to President Obama and will work to frustrate all of his designs starting with Egypt. This is something that is actually a positive outcome even for what most Americans who have a traditional American outlook on the Middle East which existed before President Obama. The coming showdown over who should rule in Egypt, a military backed government until elections free from Islamist influences or parties can be held and a secular constitution approved or a Muslim Brotherhood government which will institute a Sharia Islamist government and constitution. President Obama very likely has been locked out of having any influence on the outcome in Egypt as Saudi Arabia has preempted President Obama’s singular weapon, cash. The only result should President Obama continue on his insistence for the return to Muslim Brotherhood rule in Egypt will be the loss of every Sunni friend to the United States in the Middle East turning to another source for their military weapons and that will be the termination of any American influence in the Middle East beyond threatening Israel.  

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Egypt in the Balance

There are at least five disparate groups within Egypt but only two of them have any possibility of ending up in control and neither of them will have the people’s interests at their heart. The two heavyweights are obvious, the Military which has a long history and practice at running Egypt, and the Muslim Brotherhood which believes that they are the arm of Allah and as such are the sole rightful rulers of Egypt and the only moral and just choice for Egypt. There are the Shiite Muslims who are a minority amongst the Muslims and would be faring far worse except for another group. That other group are the Coptic Christians whose only hope is that they be left alone and are the Egyptians most invested that everything go smoothly and with no hardships as they inevitably are blamed for every single societal ill despite their inability to have any great influence. The final group consists of the young Twitter and Facebook generation who long for the good life they glimpse through their media connections and whose desires to change Egypt into a modern, industrial, democratic, functional nation were the originating driving force behind the transformation pushing Mubarak from power only to watch their movement sidetracked by the Muslim Brotherhood who were waiting in the wings to hijack the revolution at the critical junction taking over the elections.

 

The first duel started when the pro-democracy youth demonstrated and started the so-called Arab Spring transformation. They were sidelined and the first duel was won by the revitalized and newly returned Muslim Brotherhood. The second duel was again initiated by the pro-democracy youth but this time backed by the working Egyptians who have watched their nation’s economy collapse before their eyes and have been facing economic hardships and a government which could not have shown less respect for their troubles. Responding to the outcry from the people the Egyptian Military threw down the gauntlet when they arrested the Muslim Brotherhood backed President Morsi and finished the challenge to the Muslim Brotherhood with the violent removal of the pro-Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood supporting demonstrations and vigils. What is to be answered next is how vehemently the Muslim Brotherhood response to the Military action will be. We may have our answer to that question today or we may have to wait until after Friday prayers or even longer, but rest assured the day will dawn when the Muslim Brotherhood once again strives to take what they believe is their rightful place as leaders of Egypt initially and the entirety of the Muslim world should Allah will it.

 

The question in much of the western world is what can we do to repair the problems in Egypt and end the needless violence. The unfortunate answer to that question is that first off, you are asking the wrong question, and secondly, there is nothing that can be done as this is one of those conflicts that will only be resolved once one side actually surrenders and accepts they have been utterly defeated. The question that should be asked by anyone outside of Egypt is what can we do and should we do to assist the innocent who will become the victims of the coming conflagration. The only thing that can be done would be to offer the Christians a place to restart their lives should they choose to leave their longtime home country of Egypt. Many Coptic Christian families have lived in Egypt since the first century and leaving their home would be unthinkable and for those people we can offer aid but unfortunately we would reap more problems for them as well as for us if we were to intervene on their behalf. The rest of the world which lies outside the Middle East and Northern Africa who are witness to the carnage and tragic consequences of the power struggles plaguing countries such as Syria, Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Yemen and to a lesser extent Turkey, Iran, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Pakistan and others either already or soon to come have to realize that any intervention will not serve to resolve these conflicts and any governance put in place via such interventions will eventually fall and the conflict recommence and the only way for these violent upheavals to end is through producing victor and the rest of the fighting factions realizing they have been inexorably defeated, and if the world is lucky those who are defeated will never again rise up. These nations are going through the same revolution in governance which Europe experienced starting with the Magna Carta, continuing through the American Revolution followed by the French Revolution, the Napoleonic Wars, and the rest of the conflicts which eventually brought down the Monarchs, Czars, Kaisers, Emperors and other dictatorial leaders and eventually led to the current representative governance be it parliamentary, democratic or constitutional republic. Just as it would have been unlikely for the transitions that swept through Europe and the Americas over a period of close to two and a half centuries to have been avoided had aliens from some planet revolving around Sirius or one of the stars of Orion’s Belt landed and imposed the exact same form of governance on each nation that eventually came to pass through revolution would have kept the peace once they lifted off to return home. The same reasons resonate now in the growing pains thrashing through much of the Arab and Muslim worlds.

 

Is it easy to watch such horrific scenes as we will witness on the news each night? Obviously it will not be. But for recent proof that intervention will not be the answer no matter how benign the intentions are readily seen in both Iraq and Afghanistan where the recent interventions have either ended or are winding to their completion and already both nations are the scene of renewed fighting and increasing violence. President Washington and President Eisenhower despite their different ages and their different personalities and treatment by history had a strong and steadying approach to foreign entanglements and warned of the same pressures and what they saw as the unsatisfactory potentials of such adventurism and both advised that the United States served best by trading and holding peaceful relations with all and avoid all temptations and even invitations to intervene or ally in with foreign wars. Both men having been Generals of Armies of the United States, George Washington during the Revolutionary War and Eisenhower in Europe during World War II, knew the horrors and destructiveness of war and knew that war was a horror well worth avoiding at all costs short of a threat to the United States, its peoples or their freedom. Both men received entreatment to involve the United States in conflicts on foreign shores and both showed the wisdom of politely deferring to accept these invitations. George Washington refused such a request from France despite the vital aid provided by the French during the Revolutionary War. President Washington had to fight against many in his administration who supported aiding France but he held firm.

 

On a side note, the United States may have recently given an offer in order to entice Israel into allowing for a Palestinian state to be formed in nearly all of the West Bank area also known historically as Judea and Samaria. The fear is that Secretary of State Kerry was authorized by President Obama to assure the Israelis that should they allow the formation of Palestine in close to ninety or ninety-five percent of the territory claimed by the Palestinians including a large part if not all of East Jerusalem the United States would lead a NATO peacekeeping force which would guarantee that the Palestinian State remain demilitarized, terrorism be prevented especially from launching rockets into the heart of Israel which includes well over half of the Israeli population and industry, and allow for Israeli access to the Jewish holy sites which lie within Judea and Samaria. This must not be allowed to become fact as NATO or United States troops stationed in the Palestinian State would be a suicide mission as they would serve as targets for any terrorists opposed to whichever faction held power. If Hamas was in power then Fatah would terrorize any peacekeepers, with Fatah in power then Hamas would terrorize the peacekeepers and PFLP and al-Qaeda would do so no matter who was the ruling group. The peacekeeping force unless numbering in the tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands would be unable of preventing terrorist attacks on Israel simply because they would be unable to be everywhere all the time. The peacekeepers would eventually only be preventing the IDF from eradicating terror infrastructure while protecting the terrorists despite their intentions. When American soldiers began returning home in coffins there would be a growing discontent over the stationing of these troops just to protect Israel and there would come a call to remove them post haste. Should such a call be denied and the troop presence as peacekeepers kept in place the eventual result would be growing anti-Semitism as the American Jews would be seen as supporting the stationing of the peacekeepers in harm’s way whether they actually support the efforts or not. It is likely obvious to many that we support Israel and we would like to plead that no foreign troops, be they from NATO, the United States, the United Nations, or Timbuktu never be stationed between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea with an emphasis if their duties include peacekeeping or terror suppression. We here at Beyond the Cusp see such a fool’s errand as a guaranteed catastrophe which is to be avoided even if it means the peace process currently being marshaled by Secretary of State Kerry will result in failure without such assurances. Be assured that the average Israeli does not wish to involve any foreign troops, especially from NATO, the United Nations or the United States, at any time in any way that may be construed as assisting Israel. Thank you for any generous offer and do not take this as anything but a friend’s concern for our good relations, but please do not entangle yourselves in our problems. Thank you for all you have done that we appreciate every ounce of assistance but we never want American men and women in uniform to die for any reason that might be construed as in an Israeli interest or in service of the State of Israel.

 

Beyond the Cusp