Beyond the Cusp

August 15, 2013

Egypt in the Balance

Filed under: Absolutism,Adly el-Mansour,Administration,Advanced Weapions Systems,Afghanistan,Africa,al-Qaeda,Alexandria,Allah,Amalekites,Apocalypse,Appeasement,Arab League,Arab Spring,Arab World,Arabist,Arabs,Armed Services,Banking Failure,Blood Libel,Cairo,Children Murdered,Christians,Civil Disobedience,Civilization,Colonial Possession,Consequences,Coptic Christians,Copts,Cost of Living,Debt,Democracy,Demonstrations,Dictator,Divided Jerusalem,Domestic NGOs,Economic Fascism,Economic Growth,Economy,Egypt,Egyptian Military,Equal Opportunity,Equal Responsibility,Equal Rights,Equal Treatment,Equality,Europe,European Governments,European Union,Executive Order,Failed State,Fascism,Financial Crisis,Forced Solution,Foreign NGOs,Freedom and Justice Party,Government,Government Control,Halal,Hamas,Hate,Higher Prices,History,Holy Sites,Inflation,International Politics,Iran,Iraq,Islam,Islam,Islam,Islamic State,Islamist,Israel,Jewish,Jihad,Jordan River,Judea,Judean Hills,Mediterranean Sea,Middle East,Military,Military Aid,Military Council,Military Coup,Military Intervention,Military Option,Mubarak,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Old City,Oppression,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Partition Plan,Peace Process,Peacekeepers,PFLP,Politics,President Morsi,President Obama,Pro Democracy Protests,Protests,Quran,Religion,Revolutions,Riots,Samaria,Sharia,Sharia Law,Shiite,Sunni,Syria,Taqiyya,Troop Withdrawal,Under Employment,Unemployment,United Nations,United States,West Bank,World Opinion — qwertster @ 4:12 AM
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There are at least five disparate groups within Egypt but only two of them have any possibility of ending up in control and neither of them will have the people’s interests at their heart. The two heavyweights are obvious, the Military which has a long history and practice at running Egypt, and the Muslim Brotherhood which believes that they are the arm of Allah and as such are the sole rightful rulers of Egypt and the only moral and just choice for Egypt. There are the Shiite Muslims who are a minority amongst the Muslims and would be faring far worse except for another group. That other group are the Coptic Christians whose only hope is that they be left alone and are the Egyptians most invested that everything go smoothly and with no hardships as they inevitably are blamed for every single societal ill despite their inability to have any great influence. The final group consists of the young Twitter and Facebook generation who long for the good life they glimpse through their media connections and whose desires to change Egypt into a modern, industrial, democratic, functional nation were the originating driving force behind the transformation pushing Mubarak from power only to watch their movement sidetracked by the Muslim Brotherhood who were waiting in the wings to hijack the revolution at the critical junction taking over the elections.


The first duel started when the pro-democracy youth demonstrated and started the so-called Arab Spring transformation. They were sidelined and the first duel was won by the revitalized and newly returned Muslim Brotherhood. The second duel was again initiated by the pro-democracy youth but this time backed by the working Egyptians who have watched their nation’s economy collapse before their eyes and have been facing economic hardships and a government which could not have shown less respect for their troubles. Responding to the outcry from the people the Egyptian Military threw down the gauntlet when they arrested the Muslim Brotherhood backed President Morsi and finished the challenge to the Muslim Brotherhood with the violent removal of the pro-Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood supporting demonstrations and vigils. What is to be answered next is how vehemently the Muslim Brotherhood response to the Military action will be. We may have our answer to that question today or we may have to wait until after Friday prayers or even longer, but rest assured the day will dawn when the Muslim Brotherhood once again strives to take what they believe is their rightful place as leaders of Egypt initially and the entirety of the Muslim world should Allah will it.


The question in much of the western world is what can we do to repair the problems in Egypt and end the needless violence. The unfortunate answer to that question is that first off, you are asking the wrong question, and secondly, there is nothing that can be done as this is one of those conflicts that will only be resolved once one side actually surrenders and accepts they have been utterly defeated. The question that should be asked by anyone outside of Egypt is what can we do and should we do to assist the innocent who will become the victims of the coming conflagration. The only thing that can be done would be to offer the Christians a place to restart their lives should they choose to leave their longtime home country of Egypt. Many Coptic Christian families have lived in Egypt since the first century and leaving their home would be unthinkable and for those people we can offer aid but unfortunately we would reap more problems for them as well as for us if we were to intervene on their behalf. The rest of the world which lies outside the Middle East and Northern Africa who are witness to the carnage and tragic consequences of the power struggles plaguing countries such as Syria, Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Yemen and to a lesser extent Turkey, Iran, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Pakistan and others either already or soon to come have to realize that any intervention will not serve to resolve these conflicts and any governance put in place via such interventions will eventually fall and the conflict recommence and the only way for these violent upheavals to end is through producing victor and the rest of the fighting factions realizing they have been inexorably defeated, and if the world is lucky those who are defeated will never again rise up. These nations are going through the same revolution in governance which Europe experienced starting with the Magna Carta, continuing through the American Revolution followed by the French Revolution, the Napoleonic Wars, and the rest of the conflicts which eventually brought down the Monarchs, Czars, Kaisers, Emperors and other dictatorial leaders and eventually led to the current representative governance be it parliamentary, democratic or constitutional republic. Just as it would have been unlikely for the transitions that swept through Europe and the Americas over a period of close to two and a half centuries to have been avoided had aliens from some planet revolving around Sirius or one of the stars of Orion’s Belt landed and imposed the exact same form of governance on each nation that eventually came to pass through revolution would have kept the peace once they lifted off to return home. The same reasons resonate now in the growing pains thrashing through much of the Arab and Muslim worlds.


Is it easy to watch such horrific scenes as we will witness on the news each night? Obviously it will not be. But for recent proof that intervention will not be the answer no matter how benign the intentions are readily seen in both Iraq and Afghanistan where the recent interventions have either ended or are winding to their completion and already both nations are the scene of renewed fighting and increasing violence. President Washington and President Eisenhower despite their different ages and their different personalities and treatment by history had a strong and steadying approach to foreign entanglements and warned of the same pressures and what they saw as the unsatisfactory potentials of such adventurism and both advised that the United States served best by trading and holding peaceful relations with all and avoid all temptations and even invitations to intervene or ally in with foreign wars. Both men having been Generals of Armies of the United States, George Washington during the Revolutionary War and Eisenhower in Europe during World War II, knew the horrors and destructiveness of war and knew that war was a horror well worth avoiding at all costs short of a threat to the United States, its peoples or their freedom. Both men received entreatment to involve the United States in conflicts on foreign shores and both showed the wisdom of politely deferring to accept these invitations. George Washington refused such a request from France despite the vital aid provided by the French during the Revolutionary War. President Washington had to fight against many in his administration who supported aiding France but he held firm.


On a side note, the United States may have recently given an offer in order to entice Israel into allowing for a Palestinian state to be formed in nearly all of the West Bank area also known historically as Judea and Samaria. The fear is that Secretary of State Kerry was authorized by President Obama to assure the Israelis that should they allow the formation of Palestine in close to ninety or ninety-five percent of the territory claimed by the Palestinians including a large part if not all of East Jerusalem the United States would lead a NATO peacekeeping force which would guarantee that the Palestinian State remain demilitarized, terrorism be prevented especially from launching rockets into the heart of Israel which includes well over half of the Israeli population and industry, and allow for Israeli access to the Jewish holy sites which lie within Judea and Samaria. This must not be allowed to become fact as NATO or United States troops stationed in the Palestinian State would be a suicide mission as they would serve as targets for any terrorists opposed to whichever faction held power. If Hamas was in power then Fatah would terrorize any peacekeepers, with Fatah in power then Hamas would terrorize the peacekeepers and PFLP and al-Qaeda would do so no matter who was the ruling group. The peacekeeping force unless numbering in the tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands would be unable of preventing terrorist attacks on Israel simply because they would be unable to be everywhere all the time. The peacekeepers would eventually only be preventing the IDF from eradicating terror infrastructure while protecting the terrorists despite their intentions. When American soldiers began returning home in coffins there would be a growing discontent over the stationing of these troops just to protect Israel and there would come a call to remove them post haste. Should such a call be denied and the troop presence as peacekeepers kept in place the eventual result would be growing anti-Semitism as the American Jews would be seen as supporting the stationing of the peacekeepers in harm’s way whether they actually support the efforts or not. It is likely obvious to many that we support Israel and we would like to plead that no foreign troops, be they from NATO, the United States, the United Nations, or Timbuktu never be stationed between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea with an emphasis if their duties include peacekeeping or terror suppression. We here at Beyond the Cusp see such a fool’s errand as a guaranteed catastrophe which is to be avoided even if it means the peace process currently being marshaled by Secretary of State Kerry will result in failure without such assurances. Be assured that the average Israeli does not wish to involve any foreign troops, especially from NATO, the United Nations or the United States, at any time in any way that may be construed as assisting Israel. Thank you for any generous offer and do not take this as anything but a friend’s concern for our good relations, but please do not entangle yourselves in our problems. Thank you for all you have done that we appreciate every ounce of assistance but we never want American men and women in uniform to die for any reason that might be construed as in an Israeli interest or in service of the State of Israel.


Beyond the Cusp


August 9, 2013

Will Americans Wake in Time?

Filed under: 1967 Borders,Absolutism,Act of War,Adly el-Mansour,Administration,Air Support,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appeasement,Appointment,Arab Spring,Arab Winter,Arab World,Arabist,Armed Services,Army,Attack,Bashir al-Assad,Biological Weapons,Border Patrol,Borders,Building Freeze,Cabinet,Chemical Weapons,Civil War,Civil War,Civilization,Condemning Israel,Congress,Consequences,Constitutional Government,Covert Actions,Demonstrations,Disengagement,Drone Strikes,Egypt,Egyptian Border Guards,Egyptian Military,Elections,Europe,Executive Order,Freedom and Justice Party,Gamal Abdel Nasser,Government,History,Inteligence Report,International Politics,Iranian Pressure,Islam,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Jerusalem,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Home,Jewish State,Jihad,John Kerry,Judea,Judean Hills,Mahmoud Abbas,Military,Military Advisors,Military Aid,Military Council,Military Coup,Military Intervention,Military Option,Mubarak,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,No Fly Zone,Nuclear Weapons,Old City,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Partition Plan,Peace Process,Politics,Pre-Conditions,President Morsi,Prime Minister,Promised Land,Protect Citizenry,Protests,Rebel Forces,Rebel Forces,Refugees,Right of Return,Russian Pressure,Samaria,Sanctions,Secretary of State,Settlements,Sharia Law,Soviet Union,Statehood,Syria,Syrian Military,Temple Mount,Terror,Threat of War,Two State Solution,United States,War,Weapons of Mass Destruction,West Bank,White House,WMD,World Opinion,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 4:28 AM
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In the last six months leading up to the last elections in the United States we here at Beyond the Cusp begged, pleaded and argued that the most crucial principles and concerns which should have driven the vote was world events and foreign policies. We cajoled the American electorate to please ask questions and demand explanations on where the candidates stood on international problems and situations, what their outlook was concerning foreign policies, what they thought were the most pressing and important challenges in the near and far terms around the globe and finally what would be their guiding principles in addressing the standing of the United States on the world stage. Current events are now placing under the light of witness of unfolding events the repercussions to electing leaders in both the White House and Congress who choose to, for the most part, ignore world events and the ramifications when the world realizes the United States has taken a vacation from being the leader of events on the world’s stage. We are reaping the rewards of the policy of leading from behind, only acting reactively, and choosing flight over fight in virtually every theater. Our foreign policy and interactions have reinforced the realization that the United States values nobody’s friendship or any ally if continuing to have such a position requires any action on the United States behalf.


Look at the turmoil in Egypt over the last couple of years and you have an encapsulated summary of American foreign policy. President Mubarak was cruising along as President of Egypt and took the fateful position of naming one of his sons as his heir apparent. This cost Mubarak the necessary backing of the Egyptian Military as they had plans which called for them to choose the next President of Egypt when Mubarak left office as they have been privileged to do since the coup that placed Gamal Abdel Nasser into the Presidency in 1956. When the Arab Spring came to Egypt and challenged President Mubarak continuing as President, President Obama once again began a circuitous route of support followed by betrayal. Without the backing of the Egyptian Military, President Mubarak had the merest of holds on power and turned to the one ally he believed would protect him, the United States and President Obama. Initially, President Obama gave Egyptian President Mubarak complete support and continued to support him for as long as all it required was words. When it became evident that if Mubarak, an American ally of over a decade, was to retain his grasp on power he would need the active support from President Obama and the United States. At that critical point President Obama dropped the ball and turned on President Mubarak rather than actually commit to any actions which had become necessary to continue to support Mubarak as President of Egypt and American friend.


Mubarak fall was made inevitable after President Obama yanked his support from him just as quickly and without any more thought than when Lucy pulls the ball away as Charlie Brown goes to kick it. In the ensuing confusion it became evident very quickly that the next power in Egypt would be chosen by the Muslim Brotherhood. Following the path of least effort, President Obama backed the Muslim Brotherhood’s political representative in the election which was the Peace and Justice Party candidate Morsi. The elections were held and presto, President Morsi took office in Egypt. President Morsi may have miscalculated and attempted to impose Islamic Sharia aligned laws at too rapid a pace and coming up on the first year anniversary of his election the demonstrations began. With the demonstrations returning and a conflict brewing between the Egyptian Military and Islamist Muslim Brotherhood supporters the Arab Spring appeared to have changed seasons becoming an Arab Winter. Once again President Obama was faced with the choice of whether or not to support the Egyptian President who was facing a popular revolt against his rule. Events proceeded rapidly and President Morsi was removed from the President by the Egyptian Military and has been placed in custody at some undisclosed locations. The Egyptian Military has taken strong steps to drive the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood from the public and political fields and into the shadows removed from any of the levers of power. While all these events have been passing, President Obama has done absolutely nothing of consequence.


Egypt now once again has a President placed into power by the Egyptian Military placing the nation right back where it was just over a year ago when they protested to remove Mubarak; the former Military backed President of Egypt. The new Egyptian Military crowned President of Egypt is Adly Mansour. Granted, President Mansour is technically just the interim President and the Egyptian Military has promised to seek to hold new elections within six months of the establishment through referendum of a new Egyptian Constitution. Whether Egypt will devolve into civil war with the same devastating results to the country as has befallen Syria or will Egypt be able to restore order, get a constitution approved through referendum of the people and hold new elections, whichever path Egypt’s future will travel, that decision will be made completely without any supportive actions from the United States as President Obama is not likely to take any initiative and commit to actively supporting one choice over another. President Obama will continue to be a passive observer who sits in the stands safely away from the action avoiding making any mistake simply by not taking any actions. The United States will sit on the sidelines of the future in Egypt and will not prevent any harm nor assist in preventing collapse with President Obama taking the exact same position as he did while Syria spiraled out of control devolving into factional violence which had torn apart the society destroying much of the national infrastructure while President Obama dithers over whether or not to actively support a side. Should Egypt also devolve into a similar destructive civil war as continues to plague Syria, it will be largely due to the lack of any outside force intervening to enforce a singular direction by backing either the Egyptian Military or the Freedom and Justice Party which is still the last elected political entity in Egypt. It makes no difference what anyone may personally feel about the Muslim Brotherhood holding political power over Egypt through their elected representatives from the Freedom and Justice Party as what is in question here is the lack of commitment of the United States in world affairs allowing for so many places slowly falling onto chaos without any strong leadership currently setting the mood and direction for the world.


In all fairness, there is one instance where President Obama has taken a stand and a very firm stand. He has supported with every ounce of energy and influence he is capable of mustering to force by any means necessary the formation of a Palestinian state and one that preferably meets every desire and specification that the Palestinians desire. President Obama has from the outset of his Presidency found means of forcing his will upon Israel in support of the Palestinian aspirations. President Obama has even gone so far as to invent new or never before even thought of demands of Israel towards setting the conditions under which the Palestinian state should be easily facilitated. Upon taking office President Obama demanded of Israel that they freeze all building beyond the Green Line because President Obama was convinced in his heart and mind that it was Israeli building in these areas that stood in the way of reaching an accord. Israel enacted a ten month building freeze rather than anger the new American President and Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian leadership wasted this presumably golden opportunity that President Obama had rammed through in order to give the Palestinians an atmosphere where peace was supposed to be within their reach, if they would only reach out and take advantage of this gift. The only concession that resulted was Mahmoud Abbas met Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and shook his hand and then refused to meet again until a mere five weeks remained in the ten month freeze. Then, at that late date Mahmoud Abbas once again met with Netanyahu and Abbas demanded that the Israelis extend the building freeze indefinitely. Israel refused, Abbas blamed Israel for refusing to take the necessary steps for peace and there were no more meetings for the remainder of President Obama’s first term.


Now at the beginning of President Obama’s second term we are witnessing his new and improved push to form a Palestinian State in conjunction with his Secretary of State John Kerry. Once again the main impetus for the renewed peace negotiations was to ask the Palestinians which of their preconditions they would most desire the Israelis to meet and that Secretary of State Kerry would do everything in his power to impose said precondition on the Israelis as a goodwill concession necessary to persuade the Palestinians to even sit and talk once. There have been rumors that the Israelis had offered to once again impose a building freeze but that the Palestinians preferred a large and unprecedented release of terror prisoners who were serving life sentences for murders, some multiple murderous attacks, from Israeli prisons. This is what will now result in some one-hundred-four worst of the worst terrorist master planners and actual committers of terror in the entire history of the Palestinian Israeli conflict. Even with this agreement, the Palestinians further demanded that any decision on borders were to be made based on the 1949 Armistice Lines which are also referred to as the pre-June 1967 Borders. Kerry did not even try to receive Israeli agreement on this additional demand and instead simply announced that the talks were to resume and told the Israelis that with their agreement to free the terror prisoners they had shown sufficient commitment. Secretary Kerry has been rumored to have noted that he fully expects that Israel will have to let go of at least fifteen percent of what are referred to as the Settlement Blocs and has actually guaranteed the Palestinians that he will force border negotiations to be based upon the pre-June 1967 borders. There are many who, like us, fully expect that should there be any measurable progress made on the negotiation between the Israelis and the Palestinians that we will run into demands being raised by the Palestinians for Israel to freeze building or they will not return to the negotiations, and if the Israelis meet that demand, then at the next opportunity the demand will be that Israel recognize that east Jerusalem including all of the Old City and Temple Mount be recognized as the Palestinian State Capital and finally, when they wish to blow up the entire negotiations they will make their known deal killing demand, the “right of return” for some five-million Palestinian refugees into Israel proper with citizenship and return of their property or similar replacement properties. This will be the sole accomplishment by President Obama in foreign affairs, pressuring Israel to commit suicide.


Beyond the Cusp


July 8, 2013

Russia, Iran Hope Egypt Follows Syrian Path to Civil War

Iran simply came out declaring that Egyptian military removing President Morsi from power “improper” while Russia warned the Egypt was on the brink of “civil war” in provocative statements. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Araghchi was quoted in a released statement saying, “Islamists and revolutionaries should not be frustrated. Arab Spring can be followed by warm summer and cold winter.” He went on to claim the “the streets” should not be used to decide the Presidency.


Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin quoted in Russian news agencies declaring that the clashes between Morsi supporters and opponents are threatening to take the country into total chaos. Speaking while visiting Kazakhstan Putin warned, “Syria is already in the grips of a civil war, unfortunately enough, and Egypt is moving in that direction.” He added, “We would like to see the Egyptian people avoid this fate.”


The Iranian comments should be taken in context remembering that the Morsi Presidency backed as it was by the Muslim Brotherhood brought a thaw to the frozen relations between Iran and Egypt after thirty years back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. As such, Iran was enjoying the relations with an Islamized Egypt and took full advantage of the situation through repeated use of the Suez Canal to place military vessels into the Mediterranean Sea for the first time. Should Egypt now turn and place a secularist government in place these assets could be placed beyond Iranian reach and relations return to the cold storage from whence it has just been released. This makes the Iranian reaction obviously self-serving and expected.


But what about the Russian reactions, what agenda is behind their statements? One would like to be able to say that Putin’s words were sincere and he truly desired the best for the Egyptian people but his record of advancing his agenda at every turn prevents one from doing so. His referencing Syria when referring to the situation in Egypt is likely exactly as it appears, a desire for things to become sufficiently unstable to allow Russia an entrance through which to gain influence while at the same time pushing any influence of the United States aside. The accusation against President Obama of using the United States influence to push an agenda having the effect of placing the President in a defensive position rendering him paralyzed and ineffective. This was caused by his own early statements which initially backed the people’s calls for change and then back-tracking to a more neutral position pointing out the United States historic backing of elected governments. Senator John McCain has called for the United States to withhold the generous United States funding for the Egyptian military until their support has proven itself not to be simply a bald faced military coup grabbing power back to the Egyptian military as it was before the removal of Mubarak. One must remember that one of the main but relatively unmentioned reasons the demonstrations against Mubarak resulted in his stepping down was the military refusing to enforce his government leaving it vulnerable. The reason behind their refusal to back Mubarak was his decision to replace the succession of military appointed Presidents with placing his son as the next in line for the office of President when he stepped aside. This placed him in direct opposition to the military’s until then unopposed position of power in choosing the next President of Egypt. With the United States sending mixed messages on where it stands in the Egyptian revolution, making equivocation the only foreign policy of the Obama Administration, that leaves Russia with a decisive Putin taking full advantage pushing for the most chaotic of possible results in Egypt to allow for Russia to step in and place their influence behind the next President thus forever altering the complexions and alliances of the Middle East.


Should Putin get his wildest dreams realized and Egypt spiral into a full blown Syrian style civil war, it is expected that the Russians in some form of coordination most likely with either the military or Muslim Brotherhood, whichever appears to have the more promising and stronger position, to ply their way into assisting their new partners to firmly grasp and hold on power in Egypt going forward. Russia would thoroughly enjoy returning the Middle East into its Cold War divisions where the United States had a relatively weak set of relations with the Arab and Muslim States holding advantages over the Russians in Jordan and Turkey and with a strong relationship with Israel while the Russians, then the Soviet Union, had strong military centered relations with Syria, Egypt, Iran and Iraq. This all changed as a result of two main events, the Iran Iraq War and the rise of Saddam Hussein as a threat to Saudi Arabia who was pushed solidly into the United States orbit as the Russians right after the collapse of the Soviet Union was in no position to offer protection even against Saddam Hussein. Putin has noted the weakness of the United States under the foreign policy of do little then do less under President Obama who has adopted what he laughingly refers to as the lead from behind outlook on the world and has taken the initiative having Russia push their influence and agendas in a manner not seen since the soviet influence peddling which occurred during the Presidency of Jimmy Carter, another weak-willed American President. Should the world scene continue to fragment and become ever more unstable the opportunities for the Russians to place themselves in the fore and relinquish the United States into the shadows of obscurity then the world will be an ever darker place for the foreseeable future. This will be ever the more distressed as there currently does not appear to be another President and renowned cowboy, Ronald Reagan on the American horizon, but then who saw Ronald Reagan as the world leader and strong President he eventually proved he was before he took office? Could history repeat itself or is the world now destined to enter another dark period with the return of despots and military backed potentates and little if any regard for the will of the people becoming the norm and classic democratic liberalism falling into remission. This may be decided in the Middle East over the next few years and if all the current signs are to be believed as prophesizing the direction we are taking, then be afraid, be very afraid.


Beyond the Cusp


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