A World Spinning Out-of-Control

 

The first area the world is having difficulties is nothing new as finances and resources are always at a critical point somewhere, but when it spreads wide and wild, then there is a problem. The problems are about to get really tightly strung as the United States cash flow valves are about to be made even tighter until mid to late August when the money will be released to give the economy as good a feel and appearance that people will believe that President Obama’s promises to repair the economy have finally begun to work. This will be reflected in a general media message that all is finally well in the world and the United States is healthy and ready to take on the comeback of the millennia. Nothing could be further from the truth but if the economic weapon is to be taken off the table making the push to place Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton in the White House will begin in earnest. What about the e-mail scandal and the leaking of classified information and her using her own private server to remain out of sight her dealings and what about those dealings and then there is the pay-to-play cashing in on her Secretary of State position by the Clinton Foundation personal slush-fund and so much more it is impossible to keep up with it. These e-mail revelations will all be settled and forgotten by the mid-September push where the world will be all Hillary all the time should her coronation go off as planned at the democrat National Convention, which means Bernie Sanders is the court jester out to entertain the masses while all the Hillary loose ends are tied up nice and neat; then Bernie will disappear and drop out for personal and family needs. Of course he will release his support and give Hillary all his delegates at the second round unless the most unbelievable happens and Bernie Sanders becomes the man and the Democrats will dump on Hillary again and the Clintons will have it out once and for all when Bill tells Hillary that it just was never meant to be. Look for a very vindictive and messy divorce to soon follow as Bill will have not been able to provide the necessary support to assist Hillary when it became her turn. Of course it could never have been that Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton was such a set of damaged goods that anything short a miracle could have ever placed her in the White House as the President. Perhaps the truth lies in that she was better as an ornament assisting Bill and quietly out of the actual scene than she would ever be the ‘One’ herself.

 

Meanwhile American consumerism has yet to recoil from the 2007-8 recession and the United States has been languishing in the shadows making a very slow recovery on the jobs market. This has put a serious damper on American consumerism, the buying power on which much of the world economy sits waiting to serve up the goods for Americans to buy. The European one currency disaster is slowly being repaired by using Germany’s wealth and productivity to provide universal monetary relief making the European Union a full circle system where Germany pays the less affluent countries to pay off their debts to Germany and assist their less than ambitious workforce to at least take welfare and spend it on German goods. This has created a system where Germany produces the goods that the rest of Europe consume with well over half the population using German wealth to buy in, so to speak. This is a model of an economic perpetual motion and cash flow machine. The problem is friction and drag which will eventually cause all the funds to not quite reach their theoretical place and be utilized to purchase German goods. People will use a fair share of the German largesse on feeding themselves and not living on German beer, or is it bier? The governments dispensing this cash flow fungible funds will take their cut as government are known to do and other diversions prevent this perpetual cash flow machine to rather rapidly grind to a halt, then what? This was where American consumerism was to kick in and cover the difference and continue to push cash into the machine to overcome the friction and inertial problems but that did not occur right on time. Then there was supposed to be this new middle class in China ready, willing and wealthy enough to re-prime the European economic model. Another ‘no-go’ as they are spending their cash to prop up much of the Asia markets and doing that slightly better than the Germans, but that too is reaching its tipping point as China’s buying power turned out to be overrated and Japan and Australia were not capable of filling that gap so they were also turning to the American consumerism machine which remained relatively idle for reasons the rest of the world could not understand. The reinvestment in American consumerism is scheduled for lift-off later this year in order to place the next media coronation on-track to place Hillary Clinton back in the White House. Expect Bill to play his role perfectly as the supportive spouse as he provides the necessary cash for her campaign while attempting to resist any temptations which would be a true and dramatic scandal.

 

Then we come to the rest of the world. Saudi Arabia is sitting on that valve with the exception of Iran and the one-hundred-billion-plus bribery to permit them to sit in a really plush hotel suite and dictate their dream nuclear treaty and for President Obama and Secretary of State John François, did we mention he was French, Kerry to appear to be writing and crafting a cleverly devious set of rules and stipulations which would prevent Iran from building any nuclear weapons, especially deliverable ones as they also were writing a prevention to test missiles and related technologies into the treaty. They were terrible actors or at least other than the carefree unconcerned President completely trusting his competent yet bumbling Chief Inspector Jacques Clouseau of the French Sûreté Kerry to bring in the play of the century and deliver the ultimately understated but effective treaty. The entire act failed as none of the parts were played by the late Peter Sellers and thus masterly failing and flailing to the best solution through erroneous thinking always overcorrecting just enough to get the criminal in the end was not pulled off. The Iranians were playing three dimensional chess, or possible a number of dimensions higher, while Obama and Kerry were playing the ever so complicated game of Noughts and Crosses, how so ever European of them. The nuclear path to Armageddon arranged, paved, and decorated by the United States gift wrapped and delivered to the Iranians set Saudi Arabia even further on edge. The Saudis are playing their one card and playing it to its utmost capacity pumping oil from the ground at a pace previously unheard of to crash the market and push prices down as far as it can go.

 

This has had effects all desired and planned by the Saudi government, aka the Saudi Royal Family. The low prices means that the lesser grade or difficult to extract barrels of oil produce little if any profit and even losses for certain lower grade oils less desirable than the light, sweet oil of the Saudi oil field production. This was intended to bankrupt the Iranian oil market which is likely not producing the cash flow which makes Iran operate but fear not, the Obama administration has taken care of that with the unfreezing of over one-hundred-billion-dollar present right into the Mullahs of Iran’s pockets which will neatly finance their missile and nuclear research and production placing their nuclear and missile programs on the fast track for a five year target date which may be even less in the distance than all except soon to be out of office and thus not blamed for what happens next. The low price of oil is also killing any additional fracking or other fairly expensive to initiate oil fields exploration thus slowing the United States ability to develop these technologies until further notice. The final effect is against Iran’s favorite former and soon to be again super power, Russia. Russia is getting next to nothing in profits from oil sales and is likely depending on vodka profits, a real let down.

 

The Russian government is next to broke but this is where gifts from President Obama roll in. Remember that hundred-billion-plus monetary reward the United States is about to turn over to Iran? Well, guess what they are going to do with a goodly amount of that largesse? That’s the ticket; we knew you would figure that out, of course they will be buying tons of military equipment from Russia. Expect the Iranians to repaint those units tan, beige and brown and then claim they designed and manufactured them within the first year. These military sales may end up being the life’s blood, the mother’s milk for the Russian economic engine. So, Iran gets advanced military equipment and will reverse engineer it or also buy production rights and for the Russians to build the factories as well to produce the missiles and other equipment in Iran. This will provide Russia with the funds to operate for a decade longer providing military goods to Iran. What could conceivably go awry?

 

Where does all of this end? Who knows? Sure, we’ll take a stab at it. Even the military equipment will not save Russia from their adventurisms. Propping up Bashir al-Assad is an expensive business and gets all the worse with every downed aircraft, exploded tank and even every bullet shot and supplies shipped to Syria all costs but things could be worse. Turkey is a wary acquaintance with a love-hate relationship with Iran. Should Turkish-Iranian relation devolve back to animosity stages then Turkey might decide to push back closing the Bosphorus thus separating the Mediterranean Sea from the Black Sea and making the bulk of the Russian fleet all but useless. This would also mean resupplying the Russian units in Syria far more expensive as they would all need to go by air routes around Turkey. With the Russian economy still weak and near collapse, such additional expense would be just the impetus that Russia might require to take care of the Turkish problem and take the Bosphorus straights on both sides including Constantinople, well, returning Istanbul to its former name might be part of the plan, couldn’t it? This more than likely would result in an all-out war between Turkey and Russia which might not end with Turkey. The Russians would not even blink when it would come to also raking-in the Kurdish areas of Syria and Iraq taking the northern parts of Syria down as far as Aleppo. Where such aggressions might lead is a troubling thought. Russia, under Putin, might fabricate an insult or problem from the Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, Latvia, Estonia and many of the old nations, especially those in Central Asia, reestablishing the smaller and more vulnerable nations all in the name of protecting them from untold horrors threatening their futures. Now under the protection of Russia they need not spend anywhere near as much on their fears. It has all been crystalized down to one concern; the big brown ten-thousand-ton bear in the living room.

 

 

Ukraine Was Already a Conflict Spinning Out of Control
and in at Least One Possible Future
This Will Become a Picture of the Calm Before the Storm

 

 

The hard truth is financial matters on a global scale are similar to the financial situation in Europe right before World War I. Far Eastern Asia such as China was not one of the main conditions as their economy was not producing great amounts of wealth and thus was not part of the purchasing consumer world. Russia was faltering as the Czars were overthrown and the democratic first elected governance was unable to instantly produce a functioning and burgeoning economy such as had been witnessed in the booming economies right after the turn of the century in Europe and the United States. That brought on another governance and government change and the Communists took over and immediately cowed the people and put them under a harder and more forceful boot that the Czars had done, Europe was facing an economic stall as if somebody had mucked up the flow of money and without money flowing the economic sails drooped and became dead weight and unproductive. This was not as true in the United States but the American economy drove American business and the main imports by the United States were exotic fruits from South America and coffee from South America plus America was still growing though far slower than before. The Ottoman Empire, a long deceased empire staggering, was being largely propped up by the Europeans as nobody desired these lands which were tribal, primitive, unproductive deserts.

 

By every measurement, Europe was a tinderbox awaiting a single spark. The Ottoman Empire was an even more volatile place and the Balkans were the Balkans with the different religious conflicts, the tribal conflicts, largely inert economies, no overriding force of arms keeping the lid on and everything in a kind of lingering limbo slowly devolving into Machiavellian might makes right situation where many thought they had the might and were waiting for the time to be right. Well, the time never got around to being right as firing a gun with the tinderbox that was Europe was frightening enough, what followed was simply the explosion that set the world ablaze. On June 28, 1914, then, Archduke Franz Ferdinand and Sophie were touring Sarajevo in an open car, with surprisingly little security, when Serbian nationalist Nedjelko Cabrinovic threw a bomb at their car; it rolled off the back of the vehicle and wounded an officer and some bystanders. Later that day, on the way to visit the injured officer, the archduke’s procession took a wrong turn at the junction of Appel Quay and Franzjosefstrasse, where one of Cabrinovic fellow revolutionaries, 19-year-old Gavrilo Princip, laid waiting. Leaping towards the car the assassin fired into the rear seat shooting Archduke Franz Ferdinand and Sophie at point-blank range. The would-be martyr then attempted to turn the gun on himself but was wrestled to the ground and was basically saved by the arresting officers. The rest is history, no, really, history, literally and exactly World War I history. Nedjelko Cabrinovic was an anarchist and belonged to a subversive group who desired revolution called the Black Hand which was later connected to the Freemasons though there is little evidence we could find of an actual link. Any input either way would be appreciated and allow us to say thanks in advance. Meanwhile, our other conspirator, Gavrilo Princip, was raised in a home of Serbian Orthodox Christian parents though many conspiracy theorists claim because of his appearance he had to be a Jew, the actions of assassinating the Archduke and his wife just sealed the deal on his religious origins had to be Jewish despite all evidence to the contrary. Hopefully there will be no rulers of the Austria-Hungary Empire riding through the Balkans in an open car with a maximum speed of almost seventy miles per hour in the next few weeks having a bang up time at the expense of the downtrodden masses; that would just be tempting fate, now, wouldn’t it. Kidding aside, the world does seem to be picking up speed as if there may be a crashing event in the near future and that is not a happy thought. Really nothing to add to that except the list of national and international leaders vulnerable to some revolutionary anarchist or other form of fanatic is not that far-fetched and that is frightening.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Swiss Conference on Israel and Ignores Syria et al

 

The Swiss are holding their “Conference on Humanitarian Law in Palestinian Authority Assigned Territories” as if Israeli actions are the worst acts and the Israeli forces are thugs with criminal intent using force and slaughtering Arabs in lands belonging to them for autonomous rule being denied their ancient homelands. The truth is well known to anybody who reads our posts here at BTC. The San Remo Conference deeded these lands the Swiss are questioning for the formation of the Jewish State of Israel and they cannot be used by any other entity unless the Zionists surrender their autonomy over the lands from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, just to use phraseology familiar to the misguided Swiss. Perhaps they should take a few moments away from their frenetic haste and read the Balfour Declaration, the San Remo Conference conclusions, the United States Congress affirmation of their approval as an observing nations of San Remo and Article 80 of the United Nations Charter and maybe they will realize that the Jews were deeded all of the lands including those where Jordan sits today thanks to the generosity of the World Zionist Congress which willingly surrendered the lands east of the Jordan River for a sacred promise that the remaining lands east of the Jordan River would remain dedicated and reserved for the Jewish state and was inviolate. Apparently the world sees no problem demanding that the Jews once again surrender lands promised them to forge yet another Arab state and this one promises to be a failed state dedicated to a single purpose, to destroy and supplant the Jewish state. The European leaders clamoring for a state for the poor and downtrodden Palestinians whose homeland that was a piece of imagination conceived in KGB Moscow Headquarters with Yasser Arafat chosen as their operative to lead the struggle with Mahmoud Abbas as the terror organizer, financier and second in command all with the single purpose of supplanting Israel and slaughtering the Jews within.

 

Yasser Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas are apparatchiks (аппара́тчик if one prefers the original Soviet Russian spelling) and dedicated pawns of the initial Soviet designs to eradicate the Jewish state of Israel as part of their Cold War against the imperial powers of the United States and its allies. When the Soviet Union fell the Arab liberation movement had reached heights never imagined by the Soviets and had become self-sustaining and actually very profitable as Yasser Arafat had made hundreds of millions of dollars which he had stashed away in a Swiss bank account and also bought some prime properties where his wife would live luxuriously. Mahmoud Abbas and his sons had fared quite well all becoming multi-millionaires and then there is the competing terror group Hamas whose leader Khaled Mashaal has reportedly become a billionaire with Ismail Haniyeh merely a multi-millionaire. Who says terrorism doesn’t pay, if you are fighting to destroy Israel the world apparently rewards one rather well. One needs look no further than the “The Cairo International Conference on Palestine Reconstructing Gaza” where it was reported that over five-billion dollars were pledged for reconstruction with the stated provision that Hamas not be permitted access to monies or supplies, particularly building supplies which were needed to rebuild their infiltration tunnel system purposed for terror raids to slaughter Jewish Israelis living in Sderot and numerous kibbutzim located near the Gaza Strip. The only problem was that there was no enforcement placed on the supplies beyond promises from Abbas who has little if any power over Gaza. Needless to point out, Hamas is moving ahead full bore rebuilding their tunnels under the border and into Israel while those rebuilding the residences and other areas destroyed or damaged have already gone through every dollar of the monies donated and are demanding another round where at least twice the amount be raised as they have been unable to apply all the material for its intended use building homes for the people. This was exactly the result the donors claimed they would guard against and then took the word of a Holocaust denying criminal named Mahmoud Abbas, the financier and purchasing agent for the Black September raid on the Munich Olympics where the Israeli Olympic Team was slaughtered in cold blood as the entire world witnessed the events on the twenty-four hour news channels. The world leaders watched and permitted the mishandling of the situation leading to the slaughter of the remaining Israelis at the airport where the attempt to free the hostages went so very poorly resulting in their deaths and not even approaching successfully freeing them and guarding their lives. Assistance from Israel was refused and they were told their plane would not receive clearance to land should they attempt to take over the rescue despite the Israelis having decades of experience in such rescue missions and the Germans facing their first mission of this sort. No body mourned and the games continued unabated as if nothing untoward or tragic had occurred, just a simple terror attack against the Israeli team while the rest went about their competitions. One wonders what the train of events might have been had the terrorists been Irish revolutionaries and the hostages been the British team, would the games had continued or come to a screeching halt and be terminated if the British team were slaughtered. I know that would be different as the British contingent was significant and there were but a little over a dozen Israelis murdered, insignificant when compared to the European national team components, after all, the Israeli team could hardly be considered an actual component, they were not even entering most of the events. Thus was probably the thinking as after all, when has Europe ever wept or shown concern for Jewish lives?

 

Meanwhile, the Swiss conference attempting to prove the perfidy and criminal intents of the Israeli treatment and actions concerning the Arabs who refer to themselves as Palestinians simply to grant themselves a reference which presumably will supercede the Jewish claims to the lands, as they ignore the latest milestones in the Syrian machine of misery and death which had claimed over two-hundred-thousand civilian lives and injured or maimed over a million civilian victims. This civil war which has been anything but civil has raged unabated and unresolved for over three years and has gutted the nation of Syria which may never recover from the widespread destructions which have been a direct result of the fighting. Sure, President Obama laid down an adjustable red line which appeared to jump back whenever it had been broken by Bashir al-Assad such that it took Russian President Putin to intercede and marginally enforce the ever shifting Obama red line to release the American President further embarrassment. But this slaughter is of no interest; why?

 

The drone campaign used by the United States military in conjunction with the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) targeting presumable terrorist leaders and others in the leadership of al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and in ISIS wherever they can be located and there is presumably solid evidence of their presence in a location and there will be minimal collateral damage, a term for unfortunate victims of the bomb, missile or other ordinance which will be utilized to liquidate their intended targets has had unintended consequences. The stated goal can be presented with such noble words that it sounds like the perfect policy. The results are messaged such that the civilian casualties are minimized and made to appear acceptable. The real results are frightening as they show that these directed precision munitions are more often than not targeting locations well after the target has left or on faulty intelligence information. The answer you hear is that such are the misfortunes of war; there will be some miniscule amount of unintended consequences but that the majority of those killed in these strikes are really terrible terror masters. Well, not so much. It has been revealed that the numbers of civilian deaths from these targeted strikes using very refined and accurate munitions have, more often than not, missed their intended target and have resulted in over ninety-five percent civilian casualties. Perhaps Senator Feinstein would like to investigate this usage of American military might instead of the three water-boarded individuals almost immediately after the carnage on September 11, 2001 and the couple of dozen other terrorists who resisted normal methods and were subjected to other manner of enhanced interrogations methods (some of which more resemble the abuse college young men are subjected to during pledge week at various fraternities when I was attending college) in efforts to save lives of both civilians as well as American and allied service men and women.

 

Then there are the abductions by Boko Haram in and around Nigeria which the world has dedicated token forces to assist in the capture or elimination of these terrorists and the liberation of their victims. There is the terrible and ongoing violence in Yemen which has previously served as a refueling port for United States warships. There is tribal violence in the nascent state of South Sudan which has been further fueled by terrorist forces authorized by the Sudan from which the South Sudan has ceded and been recognized as a new nation. Perhaps those European nations and the United States who so gloriously and with great fanfare recognized the new nation might assist in getting the nation on its feet and establish order, but there is no interest as there are no favorite people to save or blame as there are in the Arab-Israeli conflict. There are the several attacks perpetrated by Russian armed and supported rebels in the Ukraine, in Georgia, and starting in Latvia, Estonia and perhaps Lithuania and other former nations which were part of the Soviet Empire with both Georgia and the Ukraine having had large portions of their countries absorbed by Russian troops and gifted to those more inclined to be subservient to Putin and Russian interests and less likely to view the Western world favorably.

 

There has been one force in the world fighting the good fight and I never thought I would be announcing my support for Saudi Arabia, but they are the modern day heroes in fighting the good fight. The Saudi Arabian rulers have ignored their own immediate interest and profits by flooding the world with crude oil at lower than average price per barrels. This has had an astoundingly successful set of results. This tactic by the Saudi royals is aimed at the United States fracking and sideways drilling oil shale industry which has boosted American crude oil production such as to place an additional output equal to that of Kuwait. The Saudis would love to put those interests out of business. Further, Iranian crude oil is not as high grade sweet crude like Saudi oil and thus they require a greater price to profit from their oil wells. The price that Iranian crude must sell for to maintain a profit has been surmised to be between eighty-five dollars per barrel to over one-hundred dollars per barrel, not the paltry near or under seventy dollars a barrel oil is currently selling at. Another victim of the low price per barrel is Russia who the Saudi may not have directly targeted but whom they would not be upset at hurting their interests as Russia has chosen to support Iran, the greatest menace and threat to Saudi Arabia and their leadership. Russia also requires a higher price for their oil as most of their economy is balanced on their oil sales. We have noticed the panic in Russia as the Ruble, or should we say Rubble, has drastically faltered against other currencies on the world market and many have seen the collapse of the Russian economy in recent days. There are calls for Putin’s head to be placed on a pike at the entrance to Red Square, or at least his resignation. The Saudi insistence at the last OPEC meeting, which they took the unusual step of disallowing media presence or coverage and chose whom to include in the invite, and more importantly who not to allow, and they must have made a grand presentation for their hopes and plans or laid out a threat which none wished to contend against, but they agreed to keep the spigots open and let the price of oil drop and drop drastically into ranges not seen for quite some time. When all is done, I would not be surprised to find out that the Saudi Royals used their own vast wealth to promise to subsidize the other OPEC nations allied with Saudi Arabia in these actions in order to prevent unrest within their borders in order to sink their chosen targets. Thus far their actions have not deterred the American oil interest, especially the new finds in North Dakota, who have a secondary advantage of much lower shipping costs to the refineries, and time will tell if they have blunted Iran at all, but their effects on Russia are already quite evident for all to see. The people in the west in particular are the main beneficiaries of the Saudi oil war as their petroleum costs to keep their vehicles gassed up and ready to go have dropped precipitously and this means more cash for Christmas presents. Children of the west rejoice.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Existential Crisis Most Likely to Bring New Elections

 

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Prime Minister in his own mind Yair Lapid had their fateful meeting where the real Prime Minister basically laid out what would be required from Yair Lapid and his party members in order to continue the current coalition. One of the problems which have struck the coalition has been the idea by the other party leaders that they should be the Prime Minister and run the government. Yair Lapid was rumored to even have attempted to patch together his own coalition and exercise a coup of sorts and take over the government through a deal with opposition parties thus forcing a new government without having new elections. Then we have the twisted dreams of Tzipi Livni who believes that she is fated to be Prime Minister because she honestly feels she has been robbed of her opportunity to lead the nation and will likely continue to pursue this phantom reality for the rest of her political life. There is the expected leader and head of the opposition parties Yitzhak Herzog, the leader of the Labor Party, has already claimed his rightful position as Prime Minister in waiting convinced that new elections will serve as the cleansing of the government of Prime Minister Netanyahu and instead bring a liberal wave sweeping Herzog into the Prime Minister slot. He was quoted speaking of the inevitable results of new elections stating, “The Labor party will lead the bloc that will win the election and give hope and a new reality for the citizens of Israel.” Apparently these Prime Ministerial candidates holding these delusional beliefs have either not read any of the polling done or they believe, as Yitzhak Herzog stated just the other day, that the polls are meaningless as they have sampled those they know and all of the people in their circle agree that new elections will place them at the head of the next government. If I were to ask those closest to me if I would win the coming elections and get to form the next coalition government I am sure that at least one or two would play along and assure me that I was not delusional, but they would also realize I was joking. Unfortunately for Israel, these Prime Minister wannabes are not joking and believe their own propaganda that they are the next chosen one.

 

This crisis was brought to a head when the proposed Jewish State Law which was intended to restate and reaffirm that Israel is the home of the Jewish People as well as a democracy where every citizen is guaranteed their respective rights as citizens. To any casual observer this law would be a no brainer but instead it became the initial protest vote where both Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni threatened their voting against the Jewish State Law should it be brought to the Knesset for a vote. This led to rewording the bill in attempts to make it palatable to the few who insisted on remaining unappeasable. The reality is that both party leaders were actually more upset that the governing coalition refused to tow their line and follow their agendas and instead were following the agenda put forth by the Prime Minister and originally voted for as part and parcel of joining the coalition upon its formation. So, it now appears that Israel is about to go into another election with all the usual posturing and backstabbing starting with each party holding their disparate meetings or votes or some combination thereof in order to present their list of proposed Knesset Ministers for well past their polled expectations to receive once the election results are finalized. The expectations from current polling, something that is almost meaningless as elections have historically brought surprises and twists beyond belief, has Likud remaining the largest block of Ministerial positions and thus most likely to be chosen to form the next coalition. There are indications that the next largest party might be Jewish Home which will be a surprise to the leftist parties who are expecting the Israeli voters to cast off both Likud and Jewish Home in favor of Labor, Meretz and Yesh Atid. The polling has also indicated that Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party will only manage to win half the number of seats in the Knesset than they did in their initial and surprising success in their inaugural presentation before the voting public in the last election. These polls also depicted Tzipi Livni’s HaTnuah Party as barely making a minimal entry number of seats if even breaking the threshold required to be represented in the Knesset, let alone receive the nod to form the next government. The one hope all of those vying to be the next Prime Minister can invest their aspirations upon is that the least likely thing which was unexpected by all the pollsters, party leaders, experts and prognosticators and initially dismissed as insignificant can still resonate with the Israeli public while remaining below the radar and surging forth on election day to produce the unexpected results in the next elections completely throwing all the news outlets an unseen curve which they will be at a loss to explain. The elections may prove once again that there is no such thing as a sure bet when the voting public gets to make the decisions.

 

Of course new elections are not yet guaranteed as it will take a vote in the Knesset to dissolve the parliament and hold elections and there is the possibility that Yair Lapid will return to the fold and swallow his pride for the good of the coalition and by such an action garner some new supporters which always is a desired result for any politician. Lapid was given five acts he must agree to if he desires to avoid new elections. These were to stop attacking the coalition and especially to end his criticisms of the building plans in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria and the Israeli relations with the United States. Next he was to transfer the six billion shekels to the defense budget as promised for their development of Iron Dome systems and armored personnel carriers. Third was to release the funding for the IDF relocation to the new Negev as was agreed upon by coalition agreements, something Lapid was blocking going so far as to have frozen this funding taking what he referred to as a principled stand. Fourth was for him to support the final version of the Jewish State Law. Finally he would be required to surrender and shelve the zero percent VAT relief bill he had been pushing for very determinedly. This final demand is expected to be the last straw and the one Lapid will refuse to meet thus likely forcing new elections.

 

One reading the polls would expect that Lapid would find it easier to remain in the current coalition where his Yesh Atid Party enjoys nineteen seats in the Knesset, a far cry better than the nine seats which many polls have indicated he would receive from new elections. The guessing here believes that Yesh Atid would probably suffer an even bigger embarrassment and only manage six or maybe seven seats and be on its way to extinction unless Yair Lapid could find a path back to the promises and apparent ideals he initially presented as the guiding essentials set forth in the last election. Those who suspected that much of the Zionist and nationalist line that Minister Lapid had professed was more ruse than ideological foundation as it was presented. These suspicions proved to be valid as once in the government Yair Lapid appeared to inexorably veer to the left and discard much of his nationalist agenda and instead attempt to inject his liberal slant into policy even at the expense of manipulating the budget which he had promised certain arrangements and allocations which he in the end did not deliver on. And this may only be the tip of the iceberg of potential changes which might be produced by holding new elections. The largest changes are always the ways in which the factions and parties arrange their own coalitions’ makeup. The most evident breakup has already taken place in which the one-time marriage of Likud with Yisrael Beiteinu which will also mean that Avigdor Lieberman will be leading his own party rather than being second on the combined ticket with Bibi Netanyahu taking the top slot. Netanyahu is probably expected by most to continue to take the top slot on any Likud ticket but that may not be as guaranteed as one might believe. There will be a credible challenge to Netanyahu in the voting for the Likud ticket as Danny Danon is expected to give Netanyahu a challenge from the right and even more nationalistic Zionist side of the party. We could potentially see a Likud ticket with a new face at the helm which may signal a changing of the guard within Likud even should Danny Danon fall short in his challenge. Danon is definitely one of the future leaders in Likud and the time is rapidly approaching for these new leaders to step forth. Other than the breakup of Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, there may be other alterations to more parties and combinations than could be readily covered in this article and are best left for after the parties have all filed and made public their intents. Then there will be the leadership challenges in parties other than Likud. We have to wait and see if the somewhat controversial leader of Jewish Home, Naftali Bennett, remains the top man on their ticket and whether they will continue with their current makeup or if some factions might go it on their own. Then there may be a contest for the leadership position of the Haredi parties, largely concerning in Shas and whether the more liberal and left leaning Arye Deri remains in the number one slot or if Eli Yishai or Ariel Atias will make a successful challenge from the more nationalist and right leaning side of the party. With the passing of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef there can now be a true contest for the leadership of the Shas Party. Labor just recently had a change in leadership with Yitzhak Herzog taking the top spot replacing Shelly Yachimovitch. After all is said and done the next government may very well have a similar outward appearance to the current coalition but within there will be some changes, just how many and how far this difference proves to be remains to be seen. If Likud has a new person topping their ticket, such a change could excite the electorate or perhaps the shock of Bibi Netanyahu being replaced will be too much for the Israeli public. Then there are some polls which have shown Jewish Home Party actually replacing Likud as the leader in the Knesset and thus very likely making their first name on their Knesset list the next Prime Minister. It still remains to be seen if that name will continue to be Naftali Bennett. And then again, there is still hope for yours truly as, after all, those I have talked to still hold out hope for me to be picked to form the next government, and why not? Talk about strange happenings, that would take the cake.

 

Beyond the Cusp