Beyond the Cusp

January 26, 2016

What if Trump Trumps the Competition for Nomination?

 

Trump is still there against almost every prognosticator and editorial writer who keep interpreting polls and explaining how when people have to actually vote they will become serious and then they’ll vote for a serious candidate. Initially that serious candidate was Jeb Bush who flamed out really fast, then it became Governor Scott Walker but he soon decided to walk on home, then it became Senator Marco Rubio who has slowly sunk into the more of mediocracy and now the latest is former Ohio Governor John Kasich who is in third and a fairly distant third which will likely also fade in the setting poll numbers after Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina. The betting line now is after Trump, providing Trump snags victories in Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina, who will have polled well enough to have a reasonable standing to attempt to catch the nomination starting from behind, a not completely unheard of happening and, except for blessings in the Torah of second born sons, only considered expected in elections and the last two months of baseball season and a few other sports. The latest New Hampshire polling we were able to locate a poll out of New Hampshire which placed Donald Trump at twenty-seven per cent, John Kasich at twenty per cent, Marco Rubio at ten per cent, Ted Cruz at nine per cent, Chris Christie nine per cent and Jeb Bush eight per cent, with at least fifteen percent undecided as of the polling with some obviously supporting Rand Paul or Mike Huckabee and wise enough not to admit so. What is interesting about these polling numbers is that Senator Ted Cruz is receiving much of the bloviating all a titter, not to be confused for a twittered, about the Donald-Cruz one-on-one bashing, smashing, slamming, screaming with blood flowing and bruises and contusions on the stage and some Twitter smears in one-hundred-forty characters or less free-for-all. Now we see a poll of real people, not to accuse media personnel as being other than real or people but me thinks they would all protest too much and break the one-hundred-forty characters or less Twitter limits, and Cruz is in single digits making his chances as remote as expected from the start. So, what are we to take away from all of this?

 

Firstly, there is a lot of room for improved polling for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and anyone else still in the race and below Senator Jeb Bush and his eight percent polling and that the media elite and controlling editors apparently have their own agenda. Let’s look at the media, or at least a wide swath of the media and even FOX from what we have seen and read. The media will push candidates which either have little hope of becoming the nominee such as Ted Cruz, one they expect would be a weak candidate against the expected Democrat candidate which will likely be Hillary Clinton or potentially Bernie Sanders. In either case, the universal choice happens to be the front-runner Donald Trump. The media was handed the perfect storm when Ted Cruz and Donald Trump held a one-on-one, mano-a-mano, slugfest which carried on for almost a week and was the only news event as all else fell off their radar screens. The media is simply giving their largest audience exactly what they are paying to hear, and that is whatever is the most sensationalistic and bombastic news with all the gory details and particulars their money can buy. The media live and breathe in the cities and the media which has a much larger area to cover is completely different and that is what conservative talk radio serves and they are covering the rest of the field and even they find they need to invest an inordinate amount of time covering the Donald Trump phenomena as that is where their audience desires to hear about because it affects them as well.

 

 

Democrat Front Runners Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders

Democrat Front Runners
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

 

 

The particulars about this year’s Republican race and the media covering it until the news is up to its neck in coverage of the Donald has part of its root in the fact that the Democrat race is a two person race from the outset and the only real question there is Hilary, Hilary and more Hilary. Bernie Sanders is sneaking up on the media because they did not believe the crowds he was drawing with his carnival like atmosphere were real because the media had been told by the Democrat establishment that they had piled all of their apples into Hilary as it was her turn. Well, the people have different ideas and Bernie has lit up their interest and he is now the face of the true believers on the left and the antiestablishment candidate. When the media realizes that Hilary had a credible challenger, even if it is Bernie Sanders, the media will clump around them and squeeze until the pressure breaks him or the primaries are over and all of a sudden Bernie will be their man and he was their man all along because Hilary was just too much yesterday’s news. If, or dare we say when, Bernie Sanders finished off the last gasp from the Clinton ‘machine,’ the question will be does the Clinton machine now swing in behind Bernie or will they hold their cards and donor lists close to their chests and hope he fails so they can begin claiming that 2020 was their target year all along. That decision may decide if there is a Clinton machine left after this race as if they do not back Bernie and he wins, that will be the end of it, done, over. Be that such as it may, the crash and burn by Hilary twice in a row and in both instances to what everyone claimed were too weak and unknown candidates who had one thing Hilary lacked, excitement. Hilary never ran for the nomination and simply waiting for what she claimed and honestly believed was inevitable, the White House and status as the first woman President and she offered nothing more and a whole lot less.

 

The Donald is proving that there is no inevitability in politics and that it truly has become a circus. Like Hilary on the democrat side there is Jeb, it’s my turn to be President, Bush who thought when he had the walk-in victory well in hand when he was the only candidate we had heard of and all the money was flowing his way, the republicans were almost giddy with the idea of another Clinton/Bush contest they figured they could win simply by showing up. Well, this year is looking anything but set in their ways, establishment backed Party politics and the people have finally decided it is their country and their Party and they are going to do what they desire and not just follow the Party line drawn for them. This is going to be the year of the populace come what may and the establishment is not what they want in either side. There is no ‘anybody but Bush’ line in the Republican race. The race was Jeb’s to lose and it appears he has done exactly that, lost it. What started this insanity which is quickly becoming the mainstream effort if, for no other reason, because that is the story the media may have caught onto right at the onset when Donald Trump, old Clinton friend and cohort grabbed large audiences to his appearances just as much to laugh and at some point turned and supported him just as Bernie has been doing on the Democrat side.

 

 

The Donald-Make America Great Again-Trump

The Donald-Make America Great Again-Trump

 

 

So, what happens if Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination? The question is more as to what will the Republican establishment do should Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination? It is important to remember that Donald Trump does not need the permission of the Republican Party as much as they will need his stamp of approval as he will have already passed the baptism by fire the campaign threw at him and came out on top. Further, Donald Trump does not need to rely upon the Party money to back him and he does not need the Party permission once he has won the nomination and he might do all that much better without the support of the Republican Party establishment. The favor the Republican Party elites would hand the American public would be for them to refuse to accept Trump as their candidate after he wins hands down the elective process and they deny him his rightful place through manipulating the Convention voting or other controls the Parties hold over their nomination processes in each state and in a larger part over their convention voting itself. It is still possible in both parties to win big in the primaries and still lose by a fairly surprising margin in the convention vote.

 

How is that, you ask? Without going through a ton of confusing math, here are the basics. Just because you win a state’s primary, do not go counting those delegates quite yet. Many states have adopted to use some method other than the winners take all allocation of their delegates. They get as confusing as having each voting district winner getting that delegate and the final delegates which would represent the Senators that state has in Congress usually going to the winner of the state overall but that can be altered and given by the Party bosses as they see fit. There are also the super delegates which are controlled by the elitists of the Party by which they retain some degree of control over who wins the nomination. Then there are all sorts of devious manner in which any selection process can be swayed and be controlled by the Party elite through such means as releasing the delegates from their presumed sworn obligation to vote as they were legally instructed by the states and then lean on the delegates seen as most likely to be susceptible to pressures and other manners of ‘buying’ their vote. Then there is the old adage that it is not who wins the election but who counts the votes that matters, also known as the Stalin approach to politics. After all, it was Joseph Stalin who pointed out this little fact that, “The people who cast the votes don’t decide an election, the people who count the votes do.” So, assume it safe to say that as long as Donald Trump does not win the necessary number of votes outright, even going down to the Congressional seats level and delegate by delegate count, then the often referred to as the powers that be will control who the candidate representing the Party and then appoint the person most likely to lose and have their political career ended once and for all. There are serious consequences for crossing the people when it comes to negating the power of their votes. That is a part of the animus against President Obama as he takes matters into his own hands bypassing the Congress.

 

Finally, just as Donald Trump could do by running as a third Party or no Party candidate, the Republican elites could put their influences and resources behind a third Party candidate either overtly or covertly using all sorts of weapons the largest of which is their influence over money. The Party establishment could decide suddenly that the Presidency is less important than winning Congress and claim in panicked desperate soundbites that they must, in order to save the Party, take all the Party monies and use them to elect every office other than the Presidency thus taking huge sums of money and other resources from the Presidential campaign with the most damaging part being the voter rolls and donations from the Presidential candidate in the final two to three months. Against Donald Trump such a move would be suicidal as he could finance his entire campaign without a penny from the Party but his slogan of win against the dirty money; after all there is nothing cleaner than a candidate using their own money to mount their campaign. Any nefarious or clandestine manner used to steal the campaign from the obvious and going away victor from the primary system would simply be the final nail in the Party coffin as when it comes down to it, what makes a political Party if it is not votes from the public, so ignore them at your own peril.

 

So, now Donald Trump is the Party candidate and will be listed on every state’s ballots as the republican nominee for President, now what? This is where the runner meets the road and we stop using these silly catch phrases as this is where the sloganeering gets decisive. The slogans are chosen and the campaign commercials are shot and the final race to the finish has been run and it is Election Day. There are numerous kinds of Republican and Democrat voters. There are the voters who always vote Party line, the absolute, who else would they vote for base. There are the base behind each candidate which may place some voters who were a different candidate’s true supporter who now must choose between two people they did not support or chose to stay home and watch the Gilligan’s Island Marathon on the who are we kidding channel. It are these stay at home my guy lost and I’m going to pout on election day hoping that if the Party candidate fails they can blame the Party for not seeing your infinite wisdom and intelligence when you supported candidate X and the Party foolishly tempted fate choosing candidate Y. The thing which has changed in politics has been the importance of turning out your Party’s base supporters which, except in the most unusual of cases, is not simply the important thing but the most vital thing in the universe. Elections here in the Twenty-First Century are not won on winning the middle voters, the average voter, as almost none of those voters who will cross ideological lines and even Party lines exist any longer. There are all kinds of single or three issue voters and the candidate needs to turn as many of these from their Party’s voters out to the polls. This is why many politicians have mastered talking out of both sides of their mouths simultaneously and some even manage saying three things at once all while stating nothing at all. This is seemingly more important for the conservative candidate as they have far more to lose if they do not hold true to every single issue which gets tricky when there are opposites within your Party structure. The easiest issues are gun rights and abortion. There are those Second Amendment voters on both sides of the abortion issue just as there are pro-life voters on either side of the gun issue. There is no way of parsing these dichotomies which will produce a guaranteed victory and all one can hope to do is tell the truth and hope they have not hurt themselves too badly.

 

These such issues are often far more damaging for conservatives because liberal media types will always attempt to peel back supporters by asking pointed and sharp edged questions on the most contentious issues hoping to cut voters away from the conservative candidate one-by-one if need be and conservative media will question them similarly claiming to want to present the truth to the voters. In elections there is such a thing as too much truth, especially for conservative candidates as each truth may cost them the election. This is especially true in the Presidential elections as there are far more liberal voters who will hold their nose and vote for the liberal party candidate, the Democrat just because they are not that evil person over on the other side of the ballot. Conservatives need a reason to vote for you and not just I’m not that other person, I am the Republican as that does not walk the walk or even talk the talk according to all too many voters. Those who claim they cannot vote for Trump because he used to be a liberal would likely not have liked Winston Churchill as he was among the left when he was young and somewhere during World War I he became a conservative and an ardent proponent of being prepared to fight a war when it is easily won rather than refuse to face facts that a storm is brewing. He had a number of great sayings on just that subject but I would rather use a different category on which he was also a great and wise discerner of humankind. Sir Winston Churchill stated, “If you’re not a liberal at twenty you have no heart, if you’re not a conservative at forty you have no brain.” That’s a great stopping point, till tomorrow.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 26, 2015

The Soul of the Democrat Party

 

The Democrat Party will be facing a decision this election that may determine the future of the United States and most definitely the future of the Democrat Party. The battle lines are the same as they were in 2008 and the adversaries are also the same. The choice which will be before the Democrats is whether they wish to return to the era of the Clintons and the now old school of the party or if they desire to continue with the change which was begun by President Obama and the new school of the party. So it will be ‘hope and change’ against triangulation. The one thing we have seen in the past is that triangulation formulates results that many Republican and middle of the road Americans can live with which the ‘hope and change’ is now viewed as either hope for change or hopeless if changes are not made. We know the ‘hope and change’ wing of the party as those who are out to transform the world to meet some idealized model where language and debate are molded by the leadership and the people fulfill their lives through the aid from government. Everything is part and parcel at least defined if not demanded by government and government takes the society where it will be best cared for so every person is cared for and nobody is left out, that is until government decides that there are those who are so incorrigible that they cannot be brought within the acceptable limits of the eventual all-corrigible society where those who do not conform to the message and goals of the future must be made to see the folly of their ways and resistance is highly discouraged. This is the future where all is for the greater good and the greater good is this Utopian view which has been presented and accepted as the right and proper goal which everybody has to see as desirable as it is society perfected.

 

The other choice is the views from all sides are considered and compromises are made until the people at both extremes are less than satisfied but the core of the people can live with or actually support any initiative. This society would have no real enforceable all-powerful government which could dictate the desired end because rather than take the people to some defined Utopian goal, this future the majority molds the societal path through pure democracy with everything voted upon by every citizen. Rather than finding the way to bring those disrupting influences, those reactionary conservatives who have some view of the past as a better ideal to be embraced, such members of the society would be removed and retrained before being permitted to return. Those powers which desire to remold society to match some Utopian fantasy taught by college professors have already taken hold in the themes of the entertainment industry to produce themes looked upon as favorable and to denigrate those who might be different. They are also working through the education system to limit the discussion by limiting vocabulary by removing ‘charged words’ and defining the debate through political correctness and ostracizing those who people react by needing ‘safe zones’ where disagreement is not heard and there are coloring books and kittens to calm the poor unfortunate who heard the disturbing words. Those who have a nostalgic view of the past must be turned towards this brave new world where we are informed of what is best for us and the future of humankind. The choice offered by the other side of the Democrat, the ever shrinking side which believes that there are those things from the present or recent past which would be great to hold dear and not to change them unilaterally to form the Utopian society and triangulation allows that person’s and the millions like him to not pay taxes or be put out into some full care facility where they can be educated and hopefully illuminated and retuned to society once it is clear that they have embraced the positive aspects of a modeled and molded society where the desired ones are permitted to take charge and the lesser Neanderthals are eventually rounded-up and removed from the body public in order to protect it from fringe elements which ignores the plan for the future and needs assistance. The other way allows for that other’s view to be considered and sometimes that view is seen as preferable and its inclusion is desirable.

 

The choice for the Democrat Party is to complete the vision of President Obama and those behind his administration or Hillary Clinton who is far less for designing the future societal norms than she would desire to take society down a path which includes every part of the progressive agenda as defined by the current administration. As things are right now it does not appear too favorable for Hillary Clinton and her more centered path of inclusion through compromise than inclusion by education and laws drawn up and enforced by an all-powerful government and enforced by that very same all-powerful government. We will know which side is most prevalent in the Democrat Party in the next three to six months by whether or not Hillary’s campaign has completely lost steam or if Hillary is on trial for treason or if not treason then at least compromising government secrets and allowing for them to be vulnerable to hacking and theft undermining the safety of the nation. She may end up taking the entire blame for the Benghazi murder of the American Ambassador Stevens and three other Americans. The one overriding influence thus far in this primary season is that Hillary Clinton is running more against President Obama and those who have his ear and the older and more central politically, though the Hillary supporters are extremely left wing, and see much about the United States worth saving.

 

 

Political Machines Looking in Opposite Directions but both Left of the Republican to be Chosen During the Primaries. The Democrat Primaries Might very well be far More Exciting than Everybody Thought as Hillary Clinton Will Have an Opponent with Big Financial Backing from the Same Sources as President Obama was Financed By. Meanwhile, Should Hillary Falter or Come Under Charges for the e-Mail Scandal or Benghazi, the Democrat Field Opens Wide. The Democrat Party Leadership Will Oppose Bernie Sanders as they Cannot Stomach a Pro Israel Candidate, Especially a Pro Israel Jew, so Unless Bernie Sanders Finds a Presidential Candidate with Jim the Vice President Providing Experience, thus Elizabeth Warren Could Enter as a Potential Candidate and Take the Nomination.

Political Machines Looking in Opposite Directions but both Left of the Republican to be Chosen During the Primaries. The Democrat Primaries Might very well be far More Exciting than Everybody Thought as Hillary Clinton Will Have an Opponent with Big Financial Backing from the Same Sources as President Obama was Financed By. Meanwhile, Should Hillary Falter or Come Under Charges for the e-Mail Scandal or Benghazi, the Democrat Field Opens Wide. The Democrat Party Leadership Will Oppose Bernie Sanders as they Cannot Stomach a Pro Israel Candidate, Especially a Pro Israel Jew, so Unless Bernie Sanders Finds a Presidential Candidate with Jim the Vice President Providing Experience, thus Elizabeth Warren Could Enter as a Potential Candidate and Take the Nomination.

 

 

 

There are definitely forces out there on the left who desire to end any hope for Hillary to become the Democrat candidate and are willing to change whatever it takes to prevent her and her supporters from taking over and bringing the Democrats back from the brink, as Hillary and gang view the state of the nation. So, once again into the breach where one must choose the side they are going to join because, as many conservatives have yet to understand, whomever wins the primaries and gets the selection at the convention becomes every Democrat’s and leftist’s candidate no matter how far apart your views may be because we all know that when the time comes, whomever was chosen will, even if not support, will do little harm to any leftist’s main issues. In the case they might oppose your view, you could depend that they would not do harm and do anything to protect that view from some setbacks. That would be the least a Democrat in the White House would not seek to destroy any leftist’s dreams like would be possible, or even a certainty, under a Republican in the White House. That is the core belief in the Democrat Party, advance whatever leftist dreams you may have and your fellow leftists and Democrats will all vote for you if you are the candidate with the magical ‘D’ after your name trusting that you will first do as little harm as possible and use your veto or vote to your best ability to protect any leftist cause.

 

But the fight with Hillary and the Obama Administration and all of Obama’s minions is personal and all the rules have been thrown aside as, ‘This is War! ’ It is not exactly a well-kept secret that there is bad blood between the Clintons and the Obamas and nothing can remove that from the picture. There animosity for each other has little to do with the 2008 election cycle though Bill probably holds some grudges as he saw 2008 as already promised to Hillary as it was her time and her turn except the fanatical take no prisoners forces behind the Obama campaign did not see her as worthy nor promised anything and so simply took what they could take. These backers who have run President Obama’s two campaigns and all the main international decisions of his administration and a relative few but what they saw as vital parts to his domestic policies. The one thing the Clintons have learned is that the election of a President of the United States has become an international election as far as assistance both financially and in the international media. It was the media which assisted greatly in placing President Obama in office in 2008 and played a defining role in his reelection. The press coverage Obama received spanned across Europe and beyond even reaching into the Middle East beyond the Israeli arm of the leftist American media and into the Arab media. It mattered little if the people were supportive of President Obama, or should we say candidate Obama, as that has been the main theme of his years in office, win at any cost and sell your soul if need be, though it is much easier to destroy your opposition’s soul and everything else even to the point of having false charges levied against them because winning is the only goal, costs and human carnage be damned. If nothing else, that must be remembered as their price of glory and it matters not who pays the prices along the way. One need only look back at Obama’s political history to see how many times good Democrats who got in the way of the Obama machine were sucked up, chewed to pieces and then the remains spit out and left mangled and unseemly by the side of the newly paved Obama highway to the White House, and that highway began in Chicago where most of his skeletons are buried.

 

There will be one contributor to the Hillary campaign that will be a page taken out of the Team Obama handbook and this time used for her in a contest beyond the United States borders. It would behoove every Democrat before deciding that Hillary is the next hope realize that compared to her e-mails, there will be another side to her campaign which takes a page right out of the Obama playbook, foreign campaign monies sent to the campaign in small donations of under one-hundred-dollars made with a credit card account from the United States. For those foreign interests interested in controlling the next President if you think if will be Hillary, then you can hedge your bet with a donation to the Clinton Fund as that will be their slush funds. After watching Obama rake in campaign cash from overseas almost without a care in the world, almost an in your face dare for anyone to claim they had committed any wrongdoing, they just dared people to try and do something about it and that was sufficient warning once his past was examined, foe was not a healthy position with any promise of a future, or so it appeared. Bill and Hillary have been amassing a war chest under the title of the Clinton Foundation. There may be some direct contributions all legal and above board, but how much will be hidden within the bundles with other campaign funds all grouped by location. These contributions will be made with cash cards as they are of varied denominations as those are often used as the greatest, safest, and least trackable of all donations, which is why anybody can make a donation. They just need to take a name, address and phone number from any phone listing and there you have all the information necessary to buy and contribute using cash cards. Expect this primary season to be the most expensive ever and that will be just on the way to the convention. The biggest spending campaigns, you ask? That’s an easy one to answer. The big three will be Hillary Clinton, whomever the Obama machine backed candidate will be, and quite probably the greatest spender and cash candidacy this primary season will be Jeb Bush who is potentially going to spend more on the primaries than the remaining sixteen candidates combined. Well, OK, maybe that is a stretch but we are standing by that one until proven wrong. Keep in mind that Jeb Bush has to buy his way past his last name, butt his way past having James Baker as an advisor for international affairs on his team, and most importantly, he has to butt his way past a field with at least five others more likable, more electable, and actually three of them are more qualified than he and, did we mention getting past his last name? That name thing may be one of his biggest problems.

 

So, where do the next Presidential elections stand? On the Republican side we are still trying to finalize the list but it may come down to a surprise, and a nicer surprise than a Trump putting the Republican possibilities in the dump while on the Democrat side it currently stands with Hillary with a weak but sufficient lead if she can get the media to drop the scandals before Christmas or she herself might become a Christmas gift the Democrats will return for a refund. If the scandals continue beyond Thanksgiving then we know that the Clinton plan of getting it all out and out early so it would be old news before Christmas is in deep trouble and the Democrats need to look elsewhere. The Democrats, or at least some democrats, are already seeking an ‘other’, an alternative to Hillary and the powers and influences in the Democrat Party will refuse to allow Bernie Sanders to be their candidate for two main reasons, he supports Israel and he supports Israel because of his Jewishness. That leaves the Obama candidate which at the moment is Joe Biden. Joe Biden, really? Oh the articles would write themselves simply by listening to him and getting two juicy tidbits each and every week. There was an interesting meeting which might produce an alternative which might just sell to the Democrats and which would be the not Clinton and not Obama candidate, though the Obama machine handlers might believe there was hope there but might find a stronger willed person than they expect. Bernie Sanders met with Senator Elizabeth Warren though there has been little reported about the outcome of their little tête-à-tête. Should Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren decide to run as a team, then we would bet that as long as she is at the top of the ticket and he is her Vice President and they can come across convincingly that he will be a large and steadying figure deeply steeped into her decision making and her number one and indispensable advisor, then they would storm the ramparts and conquer the Democrat Party nomination hands down and very likely continue on to take the Presidency despite the obvious drawbacks. Yes, Elizabeth Warren is an untested with as shallow a record as President Obama had and many would claim even less qualified, but she has the gifts of, like Obama, a natural campaigner, and should Hillary falter she would likely have the Clinton’s support, unless she did not need it and had the backers behind Obama come to influence her. They might find her someone far more independent and free thinking and less likely to just take orders, so the Obama people would likely choose somebody more easily managed and molded, somebody without the necessary brains and backbone to resist having their strings pulled, and we are in no way suggesting that Joe Biden has these characteristics. Where we think a Warren-Sanders ticket would work well with the public, it might not work as well as Sanders-Warren ticket, which was likely their discussion and it is doubtful she would take that deal. So, there is everything we know and up to date analysis from out there beyond the cusp.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 13, 2015

A Chance America Riding Off Into the Sunset

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There has been speculation about what role the United States will play on the world’s stage as threats abound of various severities and natures almost everywhere one looks and still we hear from United States President Obama that he awaits final strategy and complete plans laid out before him from the Pentagon before he can act. This excuse from President Obama for not committing to some plan of action sounds unrealistic, especially as it is well known even personally after having served in the United States Army, the Pentagon has plans, War Scenarios, for near any contingency which might arise. This makes President Obama’s excuse of not having any plans before him sound quite lame. Even had the Pentagon not had an exact battle plan in place when ISIS first reared their ugly heads and started chopping heads, especially since some belonged to the United States, you can bet the Pentagon went to their files and had cobbled together six ways come Sunday for dealing with ISIS which probably had added contingencies for removing Bashir al-Assad from power and potentially addressing the Iranian nuclear issue as well. The one thing is, they were not short of was plans. The only thing necessary would be for the President to choose one and they would be implementing within forty-eight hours. Each set of plans would have in the full layout exactly which units were trained for that exact mission and which of those units was at full strength and had a ready status. They would have decided whether or not to use the ready actions units of which at least two brigades of Army would be on immediate deployment status and I can assume the Marines, Navy and Air Force have similar plans for immediate response to any call up.

 

We can trust the Pentagon has plans and that all the President need do is pick up that phone he claims he could use to call for action if Congress did not pass his legislation in a timely manner and instead call the Pentagon and request their actions and plans be presented. Then he could pick up that pen with which he threatened Congress to use to write Executive Orders and use it to sign off on a plan of action and then write an Executive Memo to the leaders in Congress informing them of the impending actions and the Pentagon would take care of the rest. There is one contingency for which the Pentagon likely has plans but would be unable to implement them until the President ordered them to follow and support somebody else’s initiation of actions. That is President Obama’s famous plan of leading from behind, better known as following which often is the action of those too cowardly to commit to actions and stick their neck out, something which would be risky against ISIS but the President can go ahead and stick his neck out, the military would be out in front and would do or die even knowing that in the end the President would claim the glory, after all he took out Osama bin Laden haven’t you heard. Leading from behind is not an option on this crisis but President Obama is not one to make definitive decisions which might have him owning his actions. President Obama would rather simply follow and take only that action was dictated by somebody else, the United Nations, the European Union, NATO led by another member, actually President Obama would follow anybody, well, anybody but Israel. Were Israel to engage ISIS, it would not be a complete surprise if President Obama gave weapons to ISIS through some obscure middleman leader of another nation who might be supportive of ISIS though doing so would be risky. But until somebody else takes the lead we can expect more excuses over action from the White House.

 

One wonders if President Obama has even requested the Pentagon produce their plans for dealing with ISIS and said plans actually called for the United States to sit this round out. We can figure that the United States is loath to send troops back into Iraq after being pulled out by President Obama in a manner that military planners had informed the President was a premature action which would cause more problems than it could solve. The one problem leaving a residual force would not have addressed was President Obama winning reelection on his promise to bring our boys home come something (keeping it family friendly) or high water. The Pentagon may have been requested to provide plans which would include supporting UN or EU or NATO action taken to facilitate leading from behind at which time the Pentagon action would most likely be exactly what we are seeing, doing nothing waiting for somebody else to take the initiative so they could follow thus leading from behind again allowing President Obama to risk nothing which actually making a choice and lead would mean. But this begs a question; what happens if the United States is about to return to her historic role of isolationism where the United States trades with her friends and with her enemies but on a lesser scale and dares not interfere in worldly matters allowing them to work themselves out without United States interventions. United States entering an isolationist perspective would only allow her deployment of troops to be limited and almost always to support trade more than worrying about such trivialities as world balance and defeating evil, that’s better left to the knights of Europe who have always done this before. Of course this before was before the United States encouraged Europe to stop their militarism and that the United States would spread her umbrella and cover them so they could turn to less harmful pursuits such as taking on debt and squabbling amongst each other, just this time no world wars starting in Europe, that was the deal the United States imposed on Europe. But now it appears the United States may be folding up that umbrella and claiming not to see the storm clouds rising out of the Middle East, a denial which is difficult to swallow.

 

The going theory is that the United States will return to the role of the world’s police and enforce the good behavior between the nations extending force projection where needed. That is not the historic tendency of the United States after any major conflicts; her historic stance has been a laissez-faire attitude of simple sitting back keeping her hands politely to herself, which is the norm from the United States. The average American knows little about world affairs and cares even less. The average American was defined by President Clinton in his initial campaign for the Presidency with his slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid.” The stupid in this case was George Herbert Walker Bush (the elder and first Pres Bush) and the elections proved it as President Bush did not gain reelection largely due to his having broken his promise of, “Read my lips; no new taxes,” and then was forced to raise taxes by a Democrat Congress in order to get his budget passed with the military spending not slashed by the Congress. The election of President Clinton over reelecting President Bush was all about domestic policies over foreign policies.

 

You start to talk about foreign policy with the average American and their eyes gloss over and they drift into some zombie like state all catatonic and in shock after the first two or three sentences. Talk about immigration, taxes, domestic hot-button issues, government spending of which all is unnecessary except those they are or will receive, and the economy then you will engage in a sometimes heated debate. Talk about money and they will listen, talk about something happening in the Mille East or Asia and they will repeat what the media stated, that is bad, that is good and those people sure have as rough time, but then they will turn it back to how the government needs to take care of things at home first. The average American has all the sympathy you could ever ask for and they will donate more to charities than any other peoples on earth but when it comes to sending their young men off to fight in what they mostly see as somebody else’s war, then they need a ton of convincing and President Obama surfs waves, seldom makes waves when it comes to world politics. The President came from a past as a community organizer, read rabble rouser causing trouble to force government actions usually spending more money of which they get the lion’s share, and knows little outside of Chicago, let alone outside of the United States. He treats foreign policy as if it was a plague and to his outlook, as well as many Americans outlooks, simply does not go past the horizon and possibly not past the water’s edge.

 

We can bet that should the Democrat candidate become the next President, they too will do little as they can in foreign policy. We need remember that the Democrat candidate will not likely be Hillary Clinton but more likely somebody not even announced as of yet. Ms. Clinton’s campaign van has the wheels flying off and the engine is about to quit. The van is driving down the road to oblivion. But what if it is the Republican candidate, you inquire. There we need to find out who will take the lead and which ones do not survive the first three or four actual primary votes. We can make some specific and general observations. Rand Paul is an isolationist libertarian who believes if the United States hurts nobody then nobody would target the United States. Of all the governors and ex-governors running, only Jeb Bush might be a President inclined to use military force and actually have an active foreign policy. Others have claimed that they will repair the United States relations with Israel as well as Egypt and Saudi Arabia largely undoing some of the changes made under President Obama. Still, such actions do not necessarily mean a return into Iraq to defeat ISIS unless it becomes a dire threat to the stability of the Middle East. Only Senator Marco Rubio has direct experience with foreign policies as he in on the Senate Intelligence Committee which gives him access beyond the average Senator under the need to know doctrines. Almost any Republican candidate becoming President would easily take four months to a year to become fully briefed on every hot-spot that the Pentagon had plans and counter plans and different options under each plan and time granted each. Such amounts of information is why the President has a Secretary of Defense whose staff is divided so they can divide their work and attend to each contingencies. Still, the final decisions and person who must form the overall foreign police and who has to call in the troops for action when deemed to be necessary lies with the President and the President alone. That is one of the reason it is said that it is lonely at the top. We still have no real available input that any of the Republican candidates would press for an interventionist approach to foreign policies.

 

Likely the most pressing foreign policy might already have their hands tied should President Obama make any Iran nuclear deal somehow into a treaty without gaining Congressional affirmation. Such a decade long deal would actually prevent the next administration from taking any actions without smoking gun style proof that Iran had broken the agreement but as the agreement includes steps all the way through twelve years with little margin for change in the terms or even the terminology during that time period with the Iranians presumably free to complete their desired goal of deliverable nuclear warheads and the ICBMs on which to place them after ten years according to President Obama’s own admission which would leave them at a minimum two years to produce as many weapons systems as they are able starting with an unknown amount of LEU (low enrichment Uranium) with which to work and all of that Uranium a simple two day’s processing to be made weapons grade HEU (highly enriched Uranium over 90% purity) and then they would be capable of molding the cores and producing actual weapons. All of this is a guess of what the eventual agreement will appear to say and Iranian compliance to the terms and inspection protocols as well as their answering numerous questions about previous work performed largely by the military which Iran insists is an unprecedented and unnecessary invasion of their privileges and privacies. So, when it comes to the Iranian nuclear program the next President may be acting with his hands tied and possibly looking at a negative response from a nuclear armed Iran claiming their dominion over Iraq and dismissing the need for United States interference in their area of control which they will claim includes Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and who knows where else by January 21, 2017 when the next President takes office. After Iran there will be other situations such as Russia and their low-grade war with the Ukraine and its possibilities, China and their expansion Islands being built and potentially taking territorial control semi-legally over the entire South China Sea giving them control over one of the most active shipping lanes in the world. Speaking of choke points for shipping, Iran already has menacing control over the Straits of Hormuz where almost one third of the world’s oil is shipped by tankers and may through their proxies in Yemen, Houthis can also threaten to control the Bab-el-Mandeb which would cut off the southern exit of the Red Sea making the Suez Canal unusable and the Israeli southern port to the orient and Africa blockaded, a casus belli which could lead to a state of declared war by Iran on Israel and Egypt as both would have their shipping access to the world impeded illegally as Iran would have no other excuse other than they could close all shipping. These are just the top three and none of these includes the ISIS threat which may grow to the point where Iran and ISIS meet on equal footing with ISIS having gained an Air Force even if of a limited nature, and tactics which are prone to working, at least working well against the Iraqi army. ISIS has had far less success against the Kurdish Militias such as the Peshmerga (literally “one who confronts death”) and the People’s Protection Units (known as the YPG). These have held the northeast parts of Syria having an astonishing turning point in the city of Kobanê as well as the northern third or so of Iraq where the Kurdish forces saved thousands of Yazidi and whose Yazidi Militias have joined ranks with the Kurdish Militias. We could continue to the other continents and their probabilities for causing distress but that would leave Antarctica as probably the only safe haven if you desired no strife, or at least not yet.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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