Beyond the Cusp

February 1, 2016

Blessings We Have Found in Israel

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Israel gets some bad public relations if one depends on the news, editorials, talk radio and just about any mass media, even movies and other entertainment. Living in Israel very quickly dispels all the lies. Are there a few choice people who might make one take a less than superb view, but such are rare and even they warm with time. Needless to say, not knowing or speaking the language causes some difficulties but there is almost always somebody there to lend a translating hand. There was the time we were at a McDonalds and the woman at the counter spoke no English and two what had to be young High School age girls came in and realizing the communication problem immediately became our translators without being asked. Generally there are those who willingly offer to give directions to whatever place you need to find in ten minutes to make the appointment and it is your first time in the city and you got off the bus where you thought was the closest stop. That time we only missed by one or two stops and had to walk about a mile or so, you get used to walking in Israel because so much living is city center style European life, an initial system shock after life in the outer suburbs in the United States.

 

Our friends, acquaintances and relatives are quite surprised when we relate the ease and general atmosphere in Israel. When we tell them that we have found Israel more accommodating and generally having a softer and more easy and comforting nature they tend to express great surprise. One might expect that in Israel life would have an edge on it with the constant threats from virtually any direction and the added unpleasant surprise with the Iranian nuclear threat and President Obama and his team’s animosities and threats thrown at Israel but they would be quite wrong. Probably the best description we could give as a true barometer of Israel and Israelis would be to take everything ever attributed to Israel and her people by the United Nations General Assembly and the United Nations Human Rights Commission or virtually any other United Nations agency etcetera and take it all and place the initials of the United Nations in front of them but in small letters and then read the entirety as one word. An easy example would be if some United Nations commission claimed Israelis harbored a genocidal hatred then all one need do is take the two words and place the letter un in front giving you ungenocidal and unhatred and you would produce an honest appraisal. Sure it would take ignoring your spellcheck and do some translations where ungenocidal would become accepting of others people who are different and unhatred would become lovers making the entire accusation translate into accepting and caring for peoples who differ from Jews and accepting, caring and considerate of people who are of any other stereotypical, racial, religious or nationality different from Israeli or Jewish. A closer inspection of Israeli actions around the world will better exemplify this example.

 

When Haiti was struck by that devastating earthquake, the Israelis were amongst the first to have responders on the ground evaluating any special needs. Israel had the first field hospital which was equipped with X-ray equipment, a gynecological unit, a neonatal unit, burn center, surgical rooms, prosthetics and physical therapy, emergency room, and virtually every department and specialists which was on the ground and set up within six days of the earthquake. This hospital remained on the ground even after the search and rescue units had stood down. Israel also opened clinics in areas where urgent care not requiring the abilities of a full hospital were present and when the Israelis left Haiti a number of these clinics remained completely equipped with diagnostic, monitoring and other equipment and Israel had trained people in the area such as orphanage, school or other personnel who would be capable of offering care after the Israelis had left.

 

When Typhoon Haiyan spread destruction throughout much of the Philippines, Israel arrived with an one-hundred-forty-eight person team, including search, rescue and medical services and a fully functioning field hospital with one-hundred tons of aid. Making rescue and aid assistance even more difficult was when the typhoon struck, the region was still reeling from the Bohol earthquake in October before. One of the more interesting reports on the Israeli presence at the time was on television news where an on the scenes reporter had been directed to a small village not on one of the main Islands by the Philippine government when she requested assistance in reaching the “most remote village” to report on how they were coping with the aftermath of the storm. Imagine her surprise to find a clinic operated by Israelis already set up and operating while training the local villagers on how to treat people for emergency aid and familiarizing them with the equipment which the Israelis would leave behind as well as the clinic itself with one Israeli aid worker to remain behind and work for the next six months or so with the villagers to assure that they have received whatever training might arise.

 

When Nepal recently had their massive earthquake, once again Israel was amongst the first to respond and the operation was much like the one in Haiti with one exception which was remarkable; Israel took care to the most remote of places, some of which had rarely if ever seen support even from the Nepalese government where Israel set up satellite care units often referred to as clinic in a backpack, though we would hate to have to carry such a backpack, they are quite heavy (pictured below). These remote aid clinics provided urgent and critical care close to the, and often on the, mountain slopes treating climbers and vacation goers as well as native Nepalese citizens. They also operated as a remote triage for when victims were stabilized and given what treatment was available at the clinic and once the patients were stabilized for transport having them taken to the main Israeli or other field hospital.

 

 

The Israeli and Nepalese medical staff who operated the IsraAID mobile clinic in the village of Tar, ten hours northeast of Kathmandu. (Photo credit: Melanie Lidman/Times of Israel)

The Israeli and Nepalese medical staff who operated the IsraAID mobile clinic in the village of Tar, ten hours northeast of Kathmandu. (Photo credit: Melanie Lidman/Times of Israel)

 

 

Israel has sent aid groups to other areas struck by natural calamities with teams having gone to Japan after their earthquake and tsunami disaster, Myanmar after the tsunami, Turkey after they suffered an earthquake and offered assistance to the United States after hurricane Katrina swamped New Orleans and destroyed entire fishing towns along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, and reportedly one of a very remote few to offer assistance to the United States. When one considers the Save a Child’s Heart program and how it saves children of all ages who have debilitating if not life-threatening heart problems as well as setting up entire departments in hospitals around the world and training their staff and physicians on how to diagnose and treat these children including training the heart surgeons on how to perform these sensitive and vital surgeries, Israel leaves all the equipment the staff was trained on with the hospital.

 

And the Israelis you meet, see, work with and just generally run across are some of the most patient people and really do try to help in their own manner. They may sometimes have difficulty in expressing things in English but many are actually happy and anxious to use their English and respond well when one states the words in the correct syntax as that is important to them. Sentence structure in Hebrew is different than in English and thus literal word for word translations quite often makes for what at first one takes as Yoda speak from Star Wars, perhaps it was direct translation of Hebrew to English that was the basic transference used to make Yoda syntax. Our Hebrew is embarrassingly inadequate to even make a scheduled appointment and get the day of the week correct not to mention the time as some places use a twenty-four hour clock which reminds all of military times.

 

Then there is a tight knit group of what are referred to as Anglos, basically English speakers, and we have events, trips, sightseeing, Torah, Talmud and Bible classes for men and women and we have found our level of social activities is vastly more active and on a level of friendliness equal to our best of times and friends back in the United States. Another thing which leads to such is that Israel is a rather small nation, approximately the size of New Jersey, though that is misleading as the southern two-fifths, or forty-percent, of Israel is made up of the Negev Desert which is rather sparsely populated. Where New Jersey has a population of nine-million, Israel’s population is just over eight-million. Of course there are some groups who pretty much stick to their own group of like-minded and religious viewpoints such as the Haredi. In much of Israel where there is a mix of Arab and Jewish populations there is no evident difference in the treatment and the interactions are natural and as normal as humanly possible. In the area we reside there are Arab and Muslim stores and employees in larger stores or other places of employment are seamless as to their fitting into the society as a whole. At the regional hospital there are Muslim and Arab nurses, physicians, technicians and all positions and everything functions, as we said, seamlessly. The street signs are all written in Hebrew, Arabic, and English with some towns sporting French or Spanish or Russian, though we have yet to see one which had more than four languages and usually just the three required languages. What is always amusing is when a store has its name actually an English name but the letters on their sign is in Hebrew. What gets confusing is that when you read some of these signs you try to think what the prefixes and suffixes are as Hebrew has many words result only in a letter prefix or suffix. Some examples of prefixes are the ‘v’ which means ‘and’ along with an ‘h’ which means ‘the’ while the suffixes often give one the gender of the word as well as if it is singular or plural or includes the speaker or listener in the plural group and so on. Over half of learning Hebrew are the prefixes and the gender and singular versus plural of the words. Someday we will get a reliable translation program for our phones, or should we call them what the phones have become, life assistants and general applications from pictures to recordings, getting e-mail, surf the Web, record our every move and change of mood on Facebook, well, not quite, and most important movie or still camera and recorder.

 

Basically, virtually everything UNcomplimentary about Israel are UNtrue. Contrary to popular belief they are not contrarians. Israelis are like all peoples, there are the great, the good and the we wish they were nicer types. Many fall all over themselves attempting to make our lives as stress free as possible which had to be stressing on them. Of course it might be that as the ancient Hebrew scholars made a point of hammering into our stories and writings, people will only treat you as well as you treat them and life can be like a mirror to one’s soul which is revealed by ones actions when it appears nobody is watching, because, as we are taught in Judaism and is likely taught though with a slight difference, there is always somebody watching us from on High and nothing escapes that view as our innermost thoughts to our most expressed emotions. We can also count that such observations tell whether we’ve been bad or good, so be good for goodness sake. Still, there is something else which permeates through the society at large. There is an air of optimism and hopefulness. You feel a vigor for living life and finding meanings where other places simply ignore and accept things as is. In Israel there is this striving to be better as a people and as individuals. There is also a level of acceptance which makes one more comfortable simply being themselves as all will be just fine in the end. There are more young children than we were used to in the United States. This too adds to the optimism as a society with declining populations is what is destroying Europe right before our eyes. They are dancing their last dance in Europe and if things continue as has been the scenario we in Israel will become all the more isolated and an Island of freedom and democracy in a sea of misfortune. There is still hope for Europe but only if they turn their ship of state around and rediscover what gave them the impetus to live life to the fullest and explore the world, that spark of life which made passing their ideas and ideals on to the next generation, something difficult to do when there are so few children born to the indigenous Europeans. Israel will only grow stronger as the Jews of Europe make their final decision and that plague may soon prove to be a prophesy for the United States though that need not be their future written in stone. The United States has a far better opportunity to reverse the slipping trend before the slope becomes too steep and wet for any traction and down becomes the only direction. We are both glad we have come to Israel and Israel has proven to be a wellspring of optimism and life, a future of light and enlightenment, more than a completion as it is an opportunity to grow with such splendor and a kaleidoscope of choices each colored so vividly and vibrant. It is really hope eternal or as close as we have seen on Earth. It is great to be at home, the home which was destined and a good, no, great home it is and will grow from there. Needless to say, but we do not expect the United Nations to understand as they are the people of ‘UN’ and that sums them up in total.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 4, 2015

What is Already Resulting From the Iran Deal?

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There are already sales being arranged despite the arms embargo not being lifted for five years. Does anyone believe these sales are being scheduled for anything longer than immediately after the money is in the bank? You have probably heard about the Russian sale of the S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems which was prevented a while back by pressure from Israel for Russia to respect the existing United Nations arms embargo. Well, according to Iran that United Nations Arms Embargo was lifted the minute the agreement was reached and signed, well, signed by Russia, China, Iran, France, Germany, and Great Britain and passed by the United Nations Security Council as a Chapter Seven binding resolution so no longer necessary for the United States to sign the agreement as the United Nations has made it binding on every United Nations member. The United States could still decide as a policy not to sell arms to Iran and could even place trade sanctions on nation who do sell arms to Iran; but this would simply leave the United States open for a suit for impeding free trade. Meanwhile Russia has closed the S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems and the Chinese have struck a deal to sell Iran one-hundred-fifty Chengdu J-10 sophisticated jet fighters with Israeli avionics and finally, so far, back to Russia who is set to sell Iran two-hundred-fifty highly-advanced Sukhoi-Su-30MK1 heavy-fighter-bombers as well as one-hundred IL78 MKI tanker aircraft which with the Chinese aircraft providing tactical air cover and the Su-30s figured for both bombing and long-range intercepts or electronic interference to foil ground interceptors the Iranians could bring a heavy air assault with air refueling extending the range bringing much of MENA and Europe within range of air assault. This as well as the advancing Iranian missile technology increasing range and accuracy provides Iran with just one more method for bringing Egypt, Israel, Turkey and beyond within Iranian range for multiple assault combining sufficient assault vehicles to overwhelm any defensive system no matter how many stages and overlap exists or the number of aircraft which can be put into the air to assist with the defense. Within two years Iran will have full range ICBMs with greater range than their present ballistic missiles and even threshold continental ballistic missiles which can reach beyond Paris and with a limited warhead weight even reach London with a reasonable degree of accuracy.

 

Even the limited warhead load limit permitting these missiles reaching London they could still carry nuclear warheads once Iran masters a modicum of miniaturization of an atomic bomb, such a device could conceivably strike London thus bringing every European capital within range with the exceptions of Ireland and Portugal. Does this make any of those nations who have been criticizing Israel for sounding the alarm still feel comfortable? Saudi Arabia feels so confident that they have confirmed the standing of their relationship with Pakistan that should they require nuclear weapons on the quick and quiet that the Pakistani government remembers the debt owed the Saudi Royal family for financing much of their crash nuclear emergency program to equalize their standing against a newly nuclear armed India. So, please do not interpret the silence from Saudi Arabia as being a sign of their comfort with the newly entry of Iran as virtually the next nuclear armed nation as they are not at peace about such an occurrence. Neither is Egypt at ease with this situation as is evident from their assisting Saudi Arabia in their attempts to assist the exiled government of Yemen to retake their nation from the Iranian armed Houthis who broke out of their tribal mountain areas which the arms and support of Iran which provided them with superior weaponry and training making their military abilities far exceed their previous abilities. With the armaments which the Iranians are going to be capable of providing their proxies in the near future could alter a number of conflicts and even the rule of one nation over the coming months or at the longest a year or two. The immediate nation under threat is obviously Yemen followed likely by Iraq then either Lebanon or Syria.

 

Additionally with the recent agreement between Turkey and the United States to fight against those forces challenging the Syrian rebels which to the average Western citizen, especially those in the United States, such a deal would imply they would be targeting the Islamic State but initial reports would imply that the initial targeting has been against the Kurdish forces. This comes on top of thus far unconfirmed reports that United States has been charging areas where Islamic State was operating but after-mission reports showed that the strikes struck areas immediately before Islamic State forces advanced into these areas. These unconfirmed reports tend to lend credence that orders were given to assist the Islamic State in areas where they border Kurdish controlled areas. These reports come along with the report that Turkey has finally allowed for the United States to fly missions from airbases in Turkey. That makes all of this appear to almost make sense, especially since the Kurdish party made sufficient headway taking a respectable number of seats which preventing President Erdogan’s PKK Party from attaining their usual majority of seats making it incapable of making a coalition by itself. This has led to some very distasteful moves by Erdogan including attempting to strip the Kurdish Parliamentary members of their immunity from prosecution so that he can bring charges against them and once they have been removed in sufficient numbers after speedy trials and their party disgraced then claim that no coalition is able to be reached and have new elections in which without the Kurdish party’s influence the PKK should easily gain their usual position of being a one party coalition and complete the conversion of Turkey from the free society that Mustafa Kemal Ataturk transformed Turkey to after the fall of the Ottoman Empire was disbanded after its having been on the losing side of World War I and make it basically a dictatorship with Erdogan as their President for life with absolute powers. This result is supported fully by the Turkish branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.

 

Should Erdogan succeed in completing his refashioning Turkey after his own image, then comes the big question, which side will Erdogan fall this time the question is given and he needs to choose once the Kurds have been ejected out of Syria and possibly Turkey as well, placing the fortunate Kurds making their way to norther Iraq, and Erdogan can either attempt to hide in what he believes fortress Turkey or he can choose Islamic State, a very risky group with which for Erdogan to align, or align with Bashir al-Assad and the Iranian Mullahs and Supreme Leader, an alignment Erdogan once played with but pulled back when trouble began at home needing his full efforts to resolve. Should Turkey align with Iran and come into a symbiosis that could place NATO in danger of having to support Turkey if they were to become involved in an Iranian war against Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Gulf States, Jordan and even, believe it or not, Israel and requests NATO assistance, then what does the rest of Europe and the United States do as NATO members and treaty bound to assist Turkey in any armed struggle. Would NATO refuse because the war is not a threat to Turkey itself and is being fought far from Turkish lands and thus Turkey is not under threat of invasion and their people would be safe if Turkey simply ended their offensive invasion against a nation previously not hostile to Turkey or actually even Iran or any of their neighbors until outside influences forced issues such as in the Yemeni Civil War where Iran has armed the Houthis against the government. The Middle East will explode in ten different ways once Iran can announce or be suspected of having manufactured nuclear weapons which would make Iran a hegemonic threat to the entirety of not just the Middle East but much of the rest of MENA and Europe not to mention the large chunk of Asia which would become threatened from any Iranian designs in their direction. Then, within a short period of time they will have mastered further rocket technology allowing their development of ICBMs.

 

As it is, both North Korea and Iran have orbited satellites which travelled on a south polar orbit and have already practiced and sent satellites with payloads sufficient to represent an EMP size and weight nuclear warhead such that they circled over the United States entering from the south perfectly in the hole in the radar and intercept sites which is a known soft spots in defenses yet are being ignored by Congress despite some warnings by military members. There are a number of articles which deal with these threats as follows: Center for Security Policy Jim Woolsey: Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) is existential threat to America from July 30, 2013, which means this possible threat was known from long before the negotiations with Iran were finalized and we appeared to have a rather cavalier attitude at best, and Experts: Iran Now a Nuclear-Ready State, Missiles Capable of Hitting US By William R. Graham, Henry F. Cooper, Fritz Ermarth, and Peter Vincent Pry from Sunday, Feb 1, 2015, and finally Op-Ed: EMP Blackout Could Be Closer than You Think by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry and Ambassador to the Negotiation on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, former Director of Central Intelligence, former Undersecretary of the Navy and Co-Chair of the EMP Coalition Jim Woolsey from November 07, 2013. This is only one manner in which Iran (or North Korea) could use an alternate system which involves firing a single stage and likely solid fuel missile from within a freighter or cargo container ship. Iran has proven this as not only a possibility, but an actual usable tactic which they tested firing missiles from the Caspian Sea deep into the Iranian desert in the southern regions which were furthest distance from the ship repeatedly and have become extremely proficient. Such an attack could be carried out from any coastal area on the United States including from the Gulf of Mexico utilizing that very same blind area in the United States defenses and would reach the central location of the United States then shoot up to the necessary altitude and detonate knocking out the transformers almost from the Atlantic coast to the Pacific coast and from Texas on northward into central Canada leaving a large percentage of the United States to die over the first year and the likelihood that the system would be returned to service would take at least a decade and very possibly several decades. The scenario has been known and the military has taken some elementary steps but is mostly depending that their equipment already being hardened. This would work for an interim period as their generator trucks and backup generators would permit their bases to function short term. The military also realize that they would at some point have to return to the civilian power grid and that is where their problems would begin. Food preservation would have an initial problem but it would take military intervention to even begin to truck food from farms to the cities. Societal cohesion would be disrupted and the cities would become war zones where the gangs would have the initial upper hand as they are the ones with weapons.

 

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories.

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories.

 

 

The problem with the Iranian nuclear deal is on so many levels that one can hardly know where to begin. Listing the obvious ramification of freeing up over one-hundred-fifty-billion-dollars and infusing the Iranian coffers will have long reaching ramifications. Believing that the majority of these funds will be used to relieve the suffering of the poorest in Iranian society is a bit Pollyannish as they have already spent almost half the incoming cash on weapons from Russia and China alone. These purchases are sufficient to start a formidable Air Force even if one were to be starting from scratch. About the only items not on their shopping list are training aircraft for the pilots to start their learning with. One must assume that the Iranians will be using whatever aircraft remained in their inventory as trainers and then assigning pilots according to their abilities. The Iranians had stated quite blatantly and fiercely that their plans were to install their latest and greatest centrifuges to use in their cascades and start production of enriched uranium immediately. President Obama has mislead the American public when he stated that the Iranians would not have any uranium enriched to the twenty-percent level which is one step from HEU (highly enriched uranium) which was presumably making the world safe from Iran being capable of making sufficient quantities of HEU without the inspectors reaching an inspection date and then they would easily catch Iran if there had been any cheating as there simply were too many steps before they could produce weapons grade uranium.

 

This assumption was made on the theory that the Iranians would need at least two centrifuge cascades running around the clock for Iran with the centrifuges permitted by the agreement, as President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry figured, would take Iran close to a year. The problem this poses is simple, these newest centrifuges that Iran plans on installing can take the three-percent uranium and run it through a cascade which would appear nearly identical to the cascades with the older centrifuges unless somebody did a close inspection which would require knowledge of exactly what each version looked like and exactly how to tell them apart. The only matter they could easily discern would be that all the centrifuges were of the same variety and had recently been tested and verified safe for use. A cascade of the newest and greatest centrifuges, if information we have seen is correct, arranged in a cascade in an identical manner they would be capable of taking three-percent or slightly higher such as five percent, both of which are levels they are permitted to have in their stores and from which they will be permitted to run through what for all intents and purposes appears to be a standard cascade which would only produce approximately twenty-percent to twenty-five-percent enriched uranium. With the newest centrifuges in a similar cascade, which would not in and of itself arouse any superstition, the Iranians would be capable, with a few minor adjustments; to produce weapons grade ninety-plus-percent HEU in one run. That is one run taking three to five percent uranium and making HEU bomb ready uranium in a single run. Such is the difference between the earlier centrifuges and their latest designs and the agreement permits further studies and designing of even more efficient centrifuges which the world can feel guaranteed will be put into service once it proves to be efficient and sturdy thus reducing the time required to reach weapons grade uranium.

 

The agreement which we have all seen and which can be viewed in an easy to read format provided by a Russian outlet and translated to English and edited by Beyond the Cusp to remove wasteful formatting which made the agreement nearly impossible to follow is titled Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации which we assumed meant “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Vienna,” dated 14 July 2015. The problem starts when we find out that there is a second agreement which was formulated through indirect communications with both sides sending their communication via the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and never negotiating directly. This apparent exercise in insanity had a very good and deceitful purpose, neither side could reveal the context of the deliberations between the other’s side with the IAEA as such negotiations are guaranteed secret and secure. Where the White House could give out their versions of the negotiations but not the items which were permitted them under an oath of secrecy, which in this particular case the White House will have developed morality and will observe their promises of silence. What makes this situation all the more convoluted is that we cannot know what the final agreement stated and it is entirely possible that the entirety of the White House conversation might very well start with an outline with stipulations, restrictions, requirements and establishing a serious and intense inspection routine including immediate snap inspections of every nuclear site, working or idled by the deal such that the starting demands would even satisfy Senator Tom Cotton. The entirety of the rest of the White House negotiations with Iran might then consist of a series of ‘yes’ and ‘no’ statement with a number interspersed and maybe even a few word phrase but nothing which could lead one to any conclusions. The two items you will be guaranteed to never see would not be the Iranian initial expressions of acceptable conditions as their initial description of their side and its desires and expectations nor would you see the final document and its stipulations, rights and requirements on both sides.

 

Some of the items which we have learned in the weeks since the initial agreement was released with its numerous different variations as each side took their own liberties when translating it to their own language and liking. We have found out that the United States will be providing protection from cyber-attacks on the Iranian nuclear projects. The United States is sworn to protect Iran from and air assault on their territories. The United States will share with Iran the blueprints and specification of the United States’ most advanced centrifuge. What other schematics and diagrams the United States has promised to provide the Iranians remains a mystery. When this agreement finally leads to the inevitability it has put into motion, then the biggest question will be on which side has the United States chosen to support, the Iranian Axis which by then will control: the bulk of the world’s oil coming from the Middle East, the Straits of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Waterway which also controls both the Israeli port to the Indian Ocean and beyond to the Pacific Ocean at Eilat and the gem of the Egyptian economy the Suez Canal making it all but useless, and a large swath of land stretching from the Indian Ocean at it eastern edge to the Mediterranean Sea at its western tip. Iran likely may have defeated the Islamic State with United States providing the air power to assist in ending that Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda offshoot which initially appeared unstoppable.

 

Bab el Mandeb Strait located at the southern end of Red Sea near western edge of Yemen which controls land overlooking the waterway which allows for blocking passage from Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea traffic from through Egyptian financial collapse without fees collected from the Suez Canal made useless if Bab el Mandeb shuttered also making the Port at Eilat Israel closed from its access to Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and all of Asia and the west coast of the United States, Canada and South and Central America.

Bab el Mandeb Strait located at the southern end of Red Sea near western edge of Yemen which controls land overlooking the waterway which allows for blocking passage from Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea traffic from through Egyptian financial collapse without fees collected from the Suez Canal made useless if Bab el Mandeb shuttered also making the Port at Eilat Israel closed from its access to Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and all of Asia and the west coast of the United States, Canada and South and Central America.

 

 

So, one has to wonder about what it was exactly that did stop them, was it the requirement that they rule these peoples they had now conquered and had gained a home-front which required order and allowing the farmers and others to tend to their business in peace and with the guarantee that the police would keep the peace. At some point the battle will break down to which truly is the stronger horse, the young stallion that burst onto the scene seemingly out of nowhere, their leader’s name is Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali Muhammad al-Badri al-Samarrai (in Arabic إبراهيم عواد إبراهيم علي محمد البدري السامرائي) and now simply known as al-Baghdadi; on February 2, 2004 he had been captured near Fallujah and been detained at Camp Bucca detention center under his name Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al-Badry and was held in Iraq until some time in December 2004 when he was released, as ‘low level prisoner’ after which during the Syrian civil insurrection he came upon opportunities to use his skill to catapult his group from simply an al-Qaeda cell into a self-sustaining entity controlling a large swath of land and across Syria and into central Iraq. Eventually Iran and the Islamic State will necessarily meet head to head, mano-a- mano and then the best force will prevail and one headache will have been eliminated by an adversary doing the world a favor. By the time this draw-down has occurred, Iran will have attained nuclear weapons but will not use them against the Islamic State as their use will be reserved for a larger and more important enemy, namely Israel and the United States, but not another Islamic nation as these it is best to convert the population after proving the superiority where Allah visited victory on the Shiite troops and then offer the fighters from the vanquished side to magnanimously accept them into the forces for truth, the forces favored by Allah who gave them victory. Should these fighters accept the offers remember that they should be placed at the front and be the tip of the spear where Allah can test their conviction and faithfulness and if theirs is a true conversion then Allah will grant them the commission of heroic deeds and if not they will join their former officers who were tried for their crimes against Allah through their organizing and sending brave but misguided soldiers to execute the plans to visit harm on the true forces if Islam. These are the perceived gains received from the Islamic State war with the Shiites of Iran and Iraq along with Hezballah completing the forces of Shia Islam who do appear to be the superior force which has gained the blessings from Allah.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 7, 2015

The World After President Obama

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There are those amongst my friends and acquaintances who fear that President Obama will declare Martial Law after instigating some false national emergency whose borderline irrational fear mirrors that of those who feared the same from President George W. Bush. There is too much precedent for such to occur and President Obama will step down and give way to the duly elected President in mid-January of 2017 after the 2016 November elections. The question remains what shape will the world present to the next President and what shape will they find the United States presenting them, allowing for actions to steer the United States after their inauguration. The one point that needs to be made is this assessment is made with absolutely no regards from which party or who will be the next President as we can cross that bridge when we reach it. The first thing is the President will face his power on foreign policy will start from a position of actual weakness not felt by the United States since the start of World War II and actually in worse condition than at the end of President Carter or any other. They will be facing a situation where every branch of the military will have had bordering neglect of weapons systems and other vital maintenance with potentially the nuclear deterrent and missile systems in potentially the worst shape with some munitions in such disrepair as to require their destruction and the necessary systems for producing and upgrading these vital assets also teetering on exhausted supplies and neglected condition as to make their management a simple case of dereliction of duty caused by strangled funding and intentional degradation ordered from the highest places. They will find the senior officers to be largely made up of a weakened corps of merely ‘yes men’ and actual pacifists who believe the United States military would best serve the world in the capacity to deliver aid but not necessarily deliver force of arms beyond the shoreline with the exception of utilizing drones and other stand-off weapons partially due to depleted manpower caused by decreased funding and the paring down of the military leadership through neglect to make efforts to retain the officer’s corps.

 

The rebuilding of the military power will take a concerted effort and require massive funding increases which will make any promise of reduction of the tax burden near to impossible to deliver on in the first two years without simply patching some of the most serious areas of military weakness due to nearly eight years of intentional neglect and lack of concerns for the consequences. There will be the need for some of the cancelled military productions and for consideration of developing modern replacement for some of the oldest of the vital systems. The B-52 heavy bombing corps is utilizing airframes mostly built before 1990 and using systems designed originally in the early and mid-1950s and receiving upgrades restricted to that airframe and other limitations due to restrictions resulting from the designs being of antiquated designs and technologies which would require extensive restructuring of the basic airframe which would more likely be better served by replacement of the B-52 fleet with a new long-range bomber designed with forward looking technology. Even the B-1 and B-2 bombers are utilizing old technology and would require a complete overhaul of systems and even design. The Air Force may be better served with considering a completely new strategy where the pilots of fighter squadrons no longer were seated directly in the aircraft but instead flying the fighters from remoted position of a dedicated stealth aircraft where multiple fighters are controlled from relative safe stand-off positions. Such remotely controlled aircraft could retain much of the size of the current airframes which now being remotely controlled the airframes could be designed with intent of making high-G maneuvers previously impossible to execute due to having a pilot onboard the aircraft. Such a fleet utilizing such design parameters would revolutionize air combat for the future in ways thought unimaginable just ten years ago. The same considerations could be utilized in many modern systems when their next redesign is due especially armored combat vehicles using similar control systems allowing for the replacement of crews with automated systems which would permit decreased size and vulnerability of profile while retaining the accuracy and armaments of modern warfare armored systems. Replacing the infantryman with a robotic system is not yet feasible but should be a priority task presented to DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) with an expected rollout of several prototypes each providing the same abilities with additional features possible only in a robotic system. These systems would still require human operators who would make final decisions of when to shoot and when to stand down. It is doubtful that the American population is ready for terminator styled soldiers operating independently reliant solely on advanced AI (artificial intelligence) units quite yet, but even that would be a presentable concept when considering the demands that any military action place risk on the troops minimizing any possibility of human casualties.

 

The stress on military upgrading and rebuilding is simply due to the requirement of a force to back up policy is required if one intends to have a positive position in dealings with other nations or a defensive position which by requirement is overtly careful so as not to provoke anger or rejection knowing that the military is unable to back up and enforce policies and other demands including protection of the homeland and its interests overseas. This is crucial because the next President will be facing difficulties of the United States’ own making across the globe. Europe will be facing economic challenges which will render their policies being ever more defensive and cautious with numerous European nations facing unrest within their borders. The potential for an explosion of bloodshed within the European continent is becoming not only a future threat but approaching transforming into an imminent threat uncontrolled illegal immigration will be approaching the tipping point where the European culture will become challenged which will push the European indigenous population to the point where the decision will be the same as it has been throughout human history when two disparate and opposing cultures reach the point where the minority population decides to attempt, through intimidation and other threats, to impose their norms on the ever shrinking and aging majority replacing their culture and supplanting them as those wielding power going into the future. Should Europe when so challenged react in the fashion which has served them in the past, with such response as often typified be referencing the Inquisitions, the result will be just as or even more horrific. Europe as a whole has a very disturbing history of open warfare between competing positions which were demanding for far lesser changes in the culture causing horrific wars even including civil conflicts within one’s borders. The possibility of similar response today is all too real. One need not look that far afield to bear witness to such results where internal forces rise up and before all is decided, outside forces enter the war hijacking it to forcefully take over the nation wracked already in violence in an attempt to install a new set of leadership just as dictatorial, just as oppressive, just as cruel and potentially even more barbarous than the one being overturned. Such disasters even threaten to redraw the maps casting the formation for the sham and relativity designed solely to enrich foreign investments. Such is what is being fought over and is the main reasoning given by ISIS who is intent on supplanting both the former dictator and those who sought to replace their dictator with a modern system most likely with elected representation resulting in what is oft referred to as a democracy. Should ISIS prove victorious, there will be a new leadership in the form of a Caliph, an old title being restored so as to impose an old dictatorial leadership who takes their claim to the throne based on historic familial relationship to former Caliphs all the way to Muhammad thus adding a religious basis for their power. Such a religious tyranny would be very similar though diametrically opposed to the theocratic dictatorship of Iran, the other eight-hundred-pound gorilla in this struggle. The third leg of this societal struggle would be represented by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil el-Sisi who has yet to be fully defined and is the sole representative desiring to inspire his nation to become the towering example of how an Arab and Muslim state is capable of using elections as the tool for actually choosing the national governance but also guaranteed to be free and open elections even should he be defeated, and then comes the real test as to whether or not the newly elected leader after President Sisi also chooses to continue the liberal march into modernity or chooses to install themselves as the unchallengeable leader of Egypt. Meanwhile, there are three distinct powers currently vying to lead by two of these and the third simply has desires of surviving the current assaults on its existence which has been an active fight since its inception in May of 1948 and has been pressed to remain on the cusp between militaristic power and start-up nation with a thriving economy wishing only to be unleashed by the restraints necessitated by a constant threat of war.

 

The largest challenge looming on the horizon and very possibly to explode before the end of President Obama’s remaining time in office is of his own doing. The potential for the start of a struggle that would forever change the world may have started once President Obama completes his own set goal of bringing Iran back into the world of nations. The manner in which President Obama set out to perform this miracle would have entailed defanging Iran and then inviting them to join the nations of the world with peaceful intentions by Iran. Instead we have a United States President blindly charging forth demanding this will be his legacy, the making of Iran a coequal partner of the Middle East. The one unavoidable fact is that just as Obamacare (Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act) will be his domestic policy legacy; just as, if not more, dreadful will be his foreign policy legacy as Iran becomes a nuclear power which will have established a basic arsenal of deliverable nuclear warheads consisting of minimally a dozen and more likely three to four dozen with at least one third being thermonuclear warheads (hydrogen fusion warheads). This will place Iran well ahead of whatever plans Saudi Arabia may have in place. This announcement may come at any moment all dependent upon the extent and advancement of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The truth is the world has absolutely no clue as to whether or not Iran already possesses a number of nuclear warheads hidden away from the prying eyes wandering across the skies both orbital and others ground based aircraft. The one truth we do know is that once it becomes obvious that Iran has become a nuclear power, then it will not take numerous other Middle East nations to develop and start building their nuclear weapons arsenals. This new weapons conflict may be solely restrained by the availability of Uranium in any form to be enriched to weapons level of over ninety-percent and then its merging with the rest of the warhead. Below is the list of known nuclear weapons states and an estimate on their numbers of warheads. Once Iran has announced or been determined beyond a reasonable doubt to be armed with nuclear weapons, then the list below will become somewhat obsolete as it is rumored that Saudi Arabia has a standing agreement with Pakistan to purchase approximately one dozen nuclear warheads just so Saudi Arabia will be covered while they acquire and build their own weapons thereafter. One can also expect that Egypt and Turkey would follow suit and develop their own nuclear weapons systems. The breakdown of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also referred to as the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), will tempt certain other members to choose to opt out and develop their own nuclear weapons. Some nations may decide to develop and build their own nuclear weapons while retaining their place on the NPT committees. Some of the other nations which might decide the time has come to join the nuclear club include Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Taiwan and Japan to name a few that came to mind. The nuclear club is perched to become a far larger club of nations where its membership will no longer be the reserved of the very elite but start to resemble another useless body, the United Nations General Assembly which has become a place where the barbarians sit in judgement making decisions that carry no weight behind them beyond the media attention they generate.

1) Russia 7,500
2) United States 7,100
3) France 300
4) China 250
5) United Kingdom 225
6) Pakistan120 (estimated)
7) India 110 (estimated)
8) Israel 80 (estimated)
9) North Korea < 10 (estimated)
10) Iran ??

 

The final stage is China and her continuous efforts to claim the South China Sea and all the islands found within that general area. The problem is there are other nations who claim these islands and who hold claims just as valid. There is a chance of a conflict here though one has to imagine that China is the eight-hundred-pound gorilla of Asia as her size and modernized army with weapons to match and including nuclear weapons. This is the main reason that Japan, Taiwan and even the Philippines might all be slowly reaching the conclusion that if they are to prevent China taking over the islands one after the other inexorably slinking towards their main Isles thus posing an ever growing threat to these Island nations, they are considering that which would have a decade ago been unthinkable, joining the nuclear armed nations so as to have equal threat potential against China. More as an aside than a warning, one must also remember that the most recent Russian madman, Putin, has delusions of reestablishing Greater Russia and now that China and Russia are back on speaking terms, they have been talking of an alliance for sharing technological advances, nuclear technology, weapons research and development. This has an ominous side in that most terrorist groups have either Russia or China at the head of their supply chain. All taken in, we find the nation of the United States with a military that many have pointed to as merely having the strength the United States could project at the very start of World War II, Russia and China ascending, Iran, supported by Russia and China, being handed nuclear weapons and a very large industrial scale systems to construct said weapons from where they will begin to exercise power over the Middle East and perhaps beyond to Central and South America through Venezuela and Cuba being aided by Russia who appears poised to reacquire the lands of Eastern Europe and Central Eurasia, reestablishing the concept of a Greater Russia. Additionally there is China with an ever more capable navy claiming and taking one island after another while claiming all of the South China Sea and threatening to replace America as the preeminent power in the Pacific including the coastal areas in South America and made all the worse as the United States had gifted China with owning the ports at both ends of the Panama Canal even before the turn of the calendar to the twenty-first century.Then Iran has as luck would have it control over the Straits of Hormuz through which almost all of the Middle Eastern oil is transported to the world and is taking control the straits of Bab el Mandeb through their proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, which grants them control over the Suez Canal as this is where the Red Sea enters the Gulf of Aden leading to the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean and the world thus granting Iran control over one third of the world’s trade and oil while China controls the busiest sea in the South China Sea as well as the second busiest canal in the Panama Canal. How much more change can the world hope to endure?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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