Beyond the Cusp

August 4, 2015

What is Already Resulting From the Iran Deal?

Filed under: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,Act of War,Administration,al-Qaeda,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Article Five,Ayatollah Khamenei,Bab-el-Mandeb,Bashir al-Assad,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Calaphate,Caliphate,Chapter Seven Security Council Resolution,Chemical Weapons,China,Chinese Pressure,Civil War,Civilization,Clan,Communism,Conflict Avoidnce,Congress,Consequences,Coverup,Defend Israel,Dhimmi,Dictator,Domestic NGOs,Egypt,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Extreme Leftist,Extreme Right,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,France,Germany,Government,Great Britain,Hate,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,IRGC,ISIS,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamists,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jihad,John Kerry,Kurdish Militias,Kurds,Leftist Pressures,Meaning of Peace,Media,Middle East,Military Intervention,Munich Accord of 1938,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Muslims,Mustafa Kemal Atatürk,Myth,NATO,Neville Chamberlain,North Korean Threat,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Ottoman Empire,P5+1,Pakistan,Political Identity,Politicized Findings,Politics,President for Life,President Obama,Rebel Forces,Rebel Forces,Recep Tayyip Erdogan,Remove Sanctions,Rocket Attacks,Russia,Sanctions,Saudi Arabia,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Security Council,Sharia,Shiite,Smiling Cheshire Man,State Department,Supreme Leader,Syria,Syrian Military,Threat of War,Threat of War,Tribe,Turkey,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,Uranium Enrichment,War,Weapons of Mass Destruction,Western World,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,World War I,Yemen,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:16 AM
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There are already sales being arranged despite the arms embargo not being lifted for five years. Does anyone believe these sales are being scheduled for anything longer than immediately after the money is in the bank? You have probably heard about the Russian sale of the S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems which was prevented a while back by pressure from Israel for Russia to respect the existing United Nations arms embargo. Well, according to Iran that United Nations Arms Embargo was lifted the minute the agreement was reached and signed, well, signed by Russia, China, Iran, France, Germany, and Great Britain and passed by the United Nations Security Council as a Chapter Seven binding resolution so no longer necessary for the United States to sign the agreement as the United Nations has made it binding on every United Nations member. The United States could still decide as a policy not to sell arms to Iran and could even place trade sanctions on nation who do sell arms to Iran; but this would simply leave the United States open for a suit for impeding free trade. Meanwhile Russia has closed the S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems and the Chinese have struck a deal to sell Iran one-hundred-fifty Chengdu J-10 sophisticated jet fighters with Israeli avionics and finally, so far, back to Russia who is set to sell Iran two-hundred-fifty highly-advanced Sukhoi-Su-30MK1 heavy-fighter-bombers as well as one-hundred IL78 MKI tanker aircraft which with the Chinese aircraft providing tactical air cover and the Su-30s figured for both bombing and long-range intercepts or electronic interference to foil ground interceptors the Iranians could bring a heavy air assault with air refueling extending the range bringing much of MENA and Europe within range of air assault. This as well as the advancing Iranian missile technology increasing range and accuracy provides Iran with just one more method for bringing Egypt, Israel, Turkey and beyond within Iranian range for multiple assault combining sufficient assault vehicles to overwhelm any defensive system no matter how many stages and overlap exists or the number of aircraft which can be put into the air to assist with the defense. Within two years Iran will have full range ICBMs with greater range than their present ballistic missiles and even threshold continental ballistic missiles which can reach beyond Paris and with a limited warhead weight even reach London with a reasonable degree of accuracy.


Even the limited warhead load limit permitting these missiles reaching London they could still carry nuclear warheads once Iran masters a modicum of miniaturization of an atomic bomb, such a device could conceivably strike London thus bringing every European capital within range with the exceptions of Ireland and Portugal. Does this make any of those nations who have been criticizing Israel for sounding the alarm still feel comfortable? Saudi Arabia feels so confident that they have confirmed the standing of their relationship with Pakistan that should they require nuclear weapons on the quick and quiet that the Pakistani government remembers the debt owed the Saudi Royal family for financing much of their crash nuclear emergency program to equalize their standing against a newly nuclear armed India. So, please do not interpret the silence from Saudi Arabia as being a sign of their comfort with the newly entry of Iran as virtually the next nuclear armed nation as they are not at peace about such an occurrence. Neither is Egypt at ease with this situation as is evident from their assisting Saudi Arabia in their attempts to assist the exiled government of Yemen to retake their nation from the Iranian armed Houthis who broke out of their tribal mountain areas which the arms and support of Iran which provided them with superior weaponry and training making their military abilities far exceed their previous abilities. With the armaments which the Iranians are going to be capable of providing their proxies in the near future could alter a number of conflicts and even the rule of one nation over the coming months or at the longest a year or two. The immediate nation under threat is obviously Yemen followed likely by Iraq then either Lebanon or Syria.


Additionally with the recent agreement between Turkey and the United States to fight against those forces challenging the Syrian rebels which to the average Western citizen, especially those in the United States, such a deal would imply they would be targeting the Islamic State but initial reports would imply that the initial targeting has been against the Kurdish forces. This comes on top of thus far unconfirmed reports that United States has been charging areas where Islamic State was operating but after-mission reports showed that the strikes struck areas immediately before Islamic State forces advanced into these areas. These unconfirmed reports tend to lend credence that orders were given to assist the Islamic State in areas where they border Kurdish controlled areas. These reports come along with the report that Turkey has finally allowed for the United States to fly missions from airbases in Turkey. That makes all of this appear to almost make sense, especially since the Kurdish party made sufficient headway taking a respectable number of seats which preventing President Erdogan’s PKK Party from attaining their usual majority of seats making it incapable of making a coalition by itself. This has led to some very distasteful moves by Erdogan including attempting to strip the Kurdish Parliamentary members of their immunity from prosecution so that he can bring charges against them and once they have been removed in sufficient numbers after speedy trials and their party disgraced then claim that no coalition is able to be reached and have new elections in which without the Kurdish party’s influence the PKK should easily gain their usual position of being a one party coalition and complete the conversion of Turkey from the free society that Mustafa Kemal Ataturk transformed Turkey to after the fall of the Ottoman Empire was disbanded after its having been on the losing side of World War I and make it basically a dictatorship with Erdogan as their President for life with absolute powers. This result is supported fully by the Turkish branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.


Should Erdogan succeed in completing his refashioning Turkey after his own image, then comes the big question, which side will Erdogan fall this time the question is given and he needs to choose once the Kurds have been ejected out of Syria and possibly Turkey as well, placing the fortunate Kurds making their way to norther Iraq, and Erdogan can either attempt to hide in what he believes fortress Turkey or he can choose Islamic State, a very risky group with which for Erdogan to align, or align with Bashir al-Assad and the Iranian Mullahs and Supreme Leader, an alignment Erdogan once played with but pulled back when trouble began at home needing his full efforts to resolve. Should Turkey align with Iran and come into a symbiosis that could place NATO in danger of having to support Turkey if they were to become involved in an Iranian war against Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Gulf States, Jordan and even, believe it or not, Israel and requests NATO assistance, then what does the rest of Europe and the United States do as NATO members and treaty bound to assist Turkey in any armed struggle. Would NATO refuse because the war is not a threat to Turkey itself and is being fought far from Turkish lands and thus Turkey is not under threat of invasion and their people would be safe if Turkey simply ended their offensive invasion against a nation previously not hostile to Turkey or actually even Iran or any of their neighbors until outside influences forced issues such as in the Yemeni Civil War where Iran has armed the Houthis against the government. The Middle East will explode in ten different ways once Iran can announce or be suspected of having manufactured nuclear weapons which would make Iran a hegemonic threat to the entirety of not just the Middle East but much of the rest of MENA and Europe not to mention the large chunk of Asia which would become threatened from any Iranian designs in their direction. Then, within a short period of time they will have mastered further rocket technology allowing their development of ICBMs.


As it is, both North Korea and Iran have orbited satellites which travelled on a south polar orbit and have already practiced and sent satellites with payloads sufficient to represent an EMP size and weight nuclear warhead such that they circled over the United States entering from the south perfectly in the hole in the radar and intercept sites which is a known soft spots in defenses yet are being ignored by Congress despite some warnings by military members. There are a number of articles which deal with these threats as follows: Center for Security Policy Jim Woolsey: Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) is existential threat to America from July 30, 2013, which means this possible threat was known from long before the negotiations with Iran were finalized and we appeared to have a rather cavalier attitude at best, and Experts: Iran Now a Nuclear-Ready State, Missiles Capable of Hitting US By William R. Graham, Henry F. Cooper, Fritz Ermarth, and Peter Vincent Pry from Sunday, Feb 1, 2015, and finally Op-Ed: EMP Blackout Could Be Closer than You Think by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry and Ambassador to the Negotiation on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, former Director of Central Intelligence, former Undersecretary of the Navy and Co-Chair of the EMP Coalition Jim Woolsey from November 07, 2013. This is only one manner in which Iran (or North Korea) could use an alternate system which involves firing a single stage and likely solid fuel missile from within a freighter or cargo container ship. Iran has proven this as not only a possibility, but an actual usable tactic which they tested firing missiles from the Caspian Sea deep into the Iranian desert in the southern regions which were furthest distance from the ship repeatedly and have become extremely proficient. Such an attack could be carried out from any coastal area on the United States including from the Gulf of Mexico utilizing that very same blind area in the United States defenses and would reach the central location of the United States then shoot up to the necessary altitude and detonate knocking out the transformers almost from the Atlantic coast to the Pacific coast and from Texas on northward into central Canada leaving a large percentage of the United States to die over the first year and the likelihood that the system would be returned to service would take at least a decade and very possibly several decades. The scenario has been known and the military has taken some elementary steps but is mostly depending that their equipment already being hardened. This would work for an interim period as their generator trucks and backup generators would permit their bases to function short term. The military also realize that they would at some point have to return to the civilian power grid and that is where their problems would begin. Food preservation would have an initial problem but it would take military intervention to even begin to truck food from farms to the cities. Societal cohesion would be disrupted and the cities would become war zones where the gangs would have the initial upper hand as they are the ones with weapons.


Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories.

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories.



The problem with the Iranian nuclear deal is on so many levels that one can hardly know where to begin. Listing the obvious ramification of freeing up over one-hundred-fifty-billion-dollars and infusing the Iranian coffers will have long reaching ramifications. Believing that the majority of these funds will be used to relieve the suffering of the poorest in Iranian society is a bit Pollyannish as they have already spent almost half the incoming cash on weapons from Russia and China alone. These purchases are sufficient to start a formidable Air Force even if one were to be starting from scratch. About the only items not on their shopping list are training aircraft for the pilots to start their learning with. One must assume that the Iranians will be using whatever aircraft remained in their inventory as trainers and then assigning pilots according to their abilities. The Iranians had stated quite blatantly and fiercely that their plans were to install their latest and greatest centrifuges to use in their cascades and start production of enriched uranium immediately. President Obama has mislead the American public when he stated that the Iranians would not have any uranium enriched to the twenty-percent level which is one step from HEU (highly enriched uranium) which was presumably making the world safe from Iran being capable of making sufficient quantities of HEU without the inspectors reaching an inspection date and then they would easily catch Iran if there had been any cheating as there simply were too many steps before they could produce weapons grade uranium.


This assumption was made on the theory that the Iranians would need at least two centrifuge cascades running around the clock for Iran with the centrifuges permitted by the agreement, as President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry figured, would take Iran close to a year. The problem this poses is simple, these newest centrifuges that Iran plans on installing can take the three-percent uranium and run it through a cascade which would appear nearly identical to the cascades with the older centrifuges unless somebody did a close inspection which would require knowledge of exactly what each version looked like and exactly how to tell them apart. The only matter they could easily discern would be that all the centrifuges were of the same variety and had recently been tested and verified safe for use. A cascade of the newest and greatest centrifuges, if information we have seen is correct, arranged in a cascade in an identical manner they would be capable of taking three-percent or slightly higher such as five percent, both of which are levels they are permitted to have in their stores and from which they will be permitted to run through what for all intents and purposes appears to be a standard cascade which would only produce approximately twenty-percent to twenty-five-percent enriched uranium. With the newest centrifuges in a similar cascade, which would not in and of itself arouse any superstition, the Iranians would be capable, with a few minor adjustments; to produce weapons grade ninety-plus-percent HEU in one run. That is one run taking three to five percent uranium and making HEU bomb ready uranium in a single run. Such is the difference between the earlier centrifuges and their latest designs and the agreement permits further studies and designing of even more efficient centrifuges which the world can feel guaranteed will be put into service once it proves to be efficient and sturdy thus reducing the time required to reach weapons grade uranium.


The agreement which we have all seen and which can be viewed in an easy to read format provided by a Russian outlet and translated to English and edited by Beyond the Cusp to remove wasteful formatting which made the agreement nearly impossible to follow is titled Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации which we assumed meant “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Vienna,” dated 14 July 2015. The problem starts when we find out that there is a second agreement which was formulated through indirect communications with both sides sending their communication via the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and never negotiating directly. This apparent exercise in insanity had a very good and deceitful purpose, neither side could reveal the context of the deliberations between the other’s side with the IAEA as such negotiations are guaranteed secret and secure. Where the White House could give out their versions of the negotiations but not the items which were permitted them under an oath of secrecy, which in this particular case the White House will have developed morality and will observe their promises of silence. What makes this situation all the more convoluted is that we cannot know what the final agreement stated and it is entirely possible that the entirety of the White House conversation might very well start with an outline with stipulations, restrictions, requirements and establishing a serious and intense inspection routine including immediate snap inspections of every nuclear site, working or idled by the deal such that the starting demands would even satisfy Senator Tom Cotton. The entirety of the rest of the White House negotiations with Iran might then consist of a series of ‘yes’ and ‘no’ statement with a number interspersed and maybe even a few word phrase but nothing which could lead one to any conclusions. The two items you will be guaranteed to never see would not be the Iranian initial expressions of acceptable conditions as their initial description of their side and its desires and expectations nor would you see the final document and its stipulations, rights and requirements on both sides.


Some of the items which we have learned in the weeks since the initial agreement was released with its numerous different variations as each side took their own liberties when translating it to their own language and liking. We have found out that the United States will be providing protection from cyber-attacks on the Iranian nuclear projects. The United States is sworn to protect Iran from and air assault on their territories. The United States will share with Iran the blueprints and specification of the United States’ most advanced centrifuge. What other schematics and diagrams the United States has promised to provide the Iranians remains a mystery. When this agreement finally leads to the inevitability it has put into motion, then the biggest question will be on which side has the United States chosen to support, the Iranian Axis which by then will control: the bulk of the world’s oil coming from the Middle East, the Straits of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Waterway which also controls both the Israeli port to the Indian Ocean and beyond to the Pacific Ocean at Eilat and the gem of the Egyptian economy the Suez Canal making it all but useless, and a large swath of land stretching from the Indian Ocean at it eastern edge to the Mediterranean Sea at its western tip. Iran likely may have defeated the Islamic State with United States providing the air power to assist in ending that Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda offshoot which initially appeared unstoppable.


Bab el Mandeb Strait located at the southern end of Red Sea near western edge of Yemen which controls land overlooking the waterway which allows for blocking passage from Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea traffic from through Egyptian financial collapse without fees collected from the Suez Canal made useless if Bab el Mandeb shuttered also making the Port at Eilat Israel closed from its access to Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and all of Asia and the west coast of the United States, Canada and South and Central America.

Bab el Mandeb Strait located at the southern end of Red Sea near western edge of Yemen which controls land overlooking the waterway which allows for blocking passage from Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea traffic from through Egyptian financial collapse without fees collected from the Suez Canal made useless if Bab el Mandeb shuttered also making the Port at Eilat Israel closed from its access to Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and all of Asia and the west coast of the United States, Canada and South and Central America.



So, one has to wonder about what it was exactly that did stop them, was it the requirement that they rule these peoples they had now conquered and had gained a home-front which required order and allowing the farmers and others to tend to their business in peace and with the guarantee that the police would keep the peace. At some point the battle will break down to which truly is the stronger horse, the young stallion that burst onto the scene seemingly out of nowhere, their leader’s name is Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali Muhammad al-Badri al-Samarrai (in Arabic إبراهيم عواد إبراهيم علي محمد البدري السامرائي) and now simply known as al-Baghdadi; on February 2, 2004 he had been captured near Fallujah and been detained at Camp Bucca detention center under his name Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al-Badry and was held in Iraq until some time in December 2004 when he was released, as ‘low level prisoner’ after which during the Syrian civil insurrection he came upon opportunities to use his skill to catapult his group from simply an al-Qaeda cell into a self-sustaining entity controlling a large swath of land and across Syria and into central Iraq. Eventually Iran and the Islamic State will necessarily meet head to head, mano-a- mano and then the best force will prevail and one headache will have been eliminated by an adversary doing the world a favor. By the time this draw-down has occurred, Iran will have attained nuclear weapons but will not use them against the Islamic State as their use will be reserved for a larger and more important enemy, namely Israel and the United States, but not another Islamic nation as these it is best to convert the population after proving the superiority where Allah visited victory on the Shiite troops and then offer the fighters from the vanquished side to magnanimously accept them into the forces for truth, the forces favored by Allah who gave them victory. Should these fighters accept the offers remember that they should be placed at the front and be the tip of the spear where Allah can test their conviction and faithfulness and if theirs is a true conversion then Allah will grant them the commission of heroic deeds and if not they will join their former officers who were tried for their crimes against Allah through their organizing and sending brave but misguided soldiers to execute the plans to visit harm on the true forces if Islam. These are the perceived gains received from the Islamic State war with the Shiites of Iran and Iraq along with Hezballah completing the forces of Shia Islam who do appear to be the superior force which has gained the blessings from Allah.


Beyond the Cusp


July 7, 2015

The World After President Obama

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,2016 Elections,24/7 News Reporting,Absolutism,Act of War,Administration,Advanced Weapions Systems,Afordable Healthcare Act,al-Qaeda,Alawite,Amalekites,Anti Missile System,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab Authority,Arab Spring,Arab Winter,Arab World,Arabist,Arabs,Armed Services,Army,Austerity Measures,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollahs,Benyamin Netanyahu,Blue Water Navy,Border Patrol,Breakout Point,Cabinet,Calaphate,Caliphate,Candidate,China,Chinese Military,Chinese Pressure,Civil War,Civil War,Civilization,Class Warfare,Combat Stress,Conflict Avoidnce,Consequences,Covert Actions,Coverup,Debt,Department of Defense,Dictator,Domestic NGOs,Drone Strikes,Ease Sanctions,Ecology Lobby,Economic Growth,Economic Sanctions,Economy,Egypt,Elections,Equal Outcome,Europe,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Extreme Leftist,Extreme Right,Fordo,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Framework,Gender Issues Lobby,German Pressure,Government,Government Health Care,Great Britain,Hate,Hispanic Appeasement,Humanitarian Aid,Humanitarian Aid,Illegal Immigration,Immigrant,Immigration,Ineffective Sanctions,Inteligence Report,Interest on Debt,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Intifada,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,Iraqi Military,IRGC,IRGC,ISIS,ISIS in Gaza,ISIS in Judea and Samaria,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,Jordanian Pressure,Judea,Judeo-Christian,Keynesian Economics,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Mainland China,Mainstream Media,Media,Military Intervention,Ministers,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Multiculturalism,Murder Israelis,Muslim Expansionism,Muslim World,Muslims,Nationalist Pressures,Non Binding Resolution,Nonjudicial Assassination,North Korea,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Proliferation,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Obama,Obama Care,One State Solution,Oslo Accords,P5+1,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Pressures,Parchin,Parliament,Parliamentary Government,Peace Process,Pentagon,Plutonium Production,Politically Correct,Politicized Findings,Politics,Power,President Sisi,Pressure by Egyptian People,Primaries,Promised Land,Qom,Reapply Sanctions,Regulations,Remove Sanctions,Right of Return,Rocket Attacks,Russian Military,Russian Pressure,Samaria,Sanctions,Saudi Arabia,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secular Interests,Sharia,Shiite,South China Sea,South China Sea,Special Forces,Statehood,Submission,Sunni,Syria,Taqiyya,Terror,Theocracy,Third Intifada,Threat of War,Threat of War,Tibet Occupation,Tribe,Troop Withdrawal,Union Interests,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Upgraded Military Capabilities,Uranium Enrichment,US Air Force,US Army,US Marines,Vote of No Confidence,Voting,Weapons of Mass Destruction,World Government,World Media,World Opinion,World Pressures,World War II,World Without Zionism or America,Yemen Army,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:45 AM
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There are those amongst my friends and acquaintances who fear that President Obama will declare Martial Law after instigating some false national emergency whose borderline irrational fear mirrors that of those who feared the same from President George W. Bush. There is too much precedent for such to occur and President Obama will step down and give way to the duly elected President in mid-January of 2017 after the 2016 November elections. The question remains what shape will the world present to the next President and what shape will they find the United States presenting them, allowing for actions to steer the United States after their inauguration. The one point that needs to be made is this assessment is made with absolutely no regards from which party or who will be the next President as we can cross that bridge when we reach it. The first thing is the President will face his power on foreign policy will start from a position of actual weakness not felt by the United States since the start of World War II and actually in worse condition than at the end of President Carter or any other. They will be facing a situation where every branch of the military will have had bordering neglect of weapons systems and other vital maintenance with potentially the nuclear deterrent and missile systems in potentially the worst shape with some munitions in such disrepair as to require their destruction and the necessary systems for producing and upgrading these vital assets also teetering on exhausted supplies and neglected condition as to make their management a simple case of dereliction of duty caused by strangled funding and intentional degradation ordered from the highest places. They will find the senior officers to be largely made up of a weakened corps of merely ‘yes men’ and actual pacifists who believe the United States military would best serve the world in the capacity to deliver aid but not necessarily deliver force of arms beyond the shoreline with the exception of utilizing drones and other stand-off weapons partially due to depleted manpower caused by decreased funding and the paring down of the military leadership through neglect to make efforts to retain the officer’s corps.


The rebuilding of the military power will take a concerted effort and require massive funding increases which will make any promise of reduction of the tax burden near to impossible to deliver on in the first two years without simply patching some of the most serious areas of military weakness due to nearly eight years of intentional neglect and lack of concerns for the consequences. There will be the need for some of the cancelled military productions and for consideration of developing modern replacement for some of the oldest of the vital systems. The B-52 heavy bombing corps is utilizing airframes mostly built before 1990 and using systems designed originally in the early and mid-1950s and receiving upgrades restricted to that airframe and other limitations due to restrictions resulting from the designs being of antiquated designs and technologies which would require extensive restructuring of the basic airframe which would more likely be better served by replacement of the B-52 fleet with a new long-range bomber designed with forward looking technology. Even the B-1 and B-2 bombers are utilizing old technology and would require a complete overhaul of systems and even design. The Air Force may be better served with considering a completely new strategy where the pilots of fighter squadrons no longer were seated directly in the aircraft but instead flying the fighters from remoted position of a dedicated stealth aircraft where multiple fighters are controlled from relative safe stand-off positions. Such remotely controlled aircraft could retain much of the size of the current airframes which now being remotely controlled the airframes could be designed with intent of making high-G maneuvers previously impossible to execute due to having a pilot onboard the aircraft. Such a fleet utilizing such design parameters would revolutionize air combat for the future in ways thought unimaginable just ten years ago. The same considerations could be utilized in many modern systems when their next redesign is due especially armored combat vehicles using similar control systems allowing for the replacement of crews with automated systems which would permit decreased size and vulnerability of profile while retaining the accuracy and armaments of modern warfare armored systems. Replacing the infantryman with a robotic system is not yet feasible but should be a priority task presented to DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) with an expected rollout of several prototypes each providing the same abilities with additional features possible only in a robotic system. These systems would still require human operators who would make final decisions of when to shoot and when to stand down. It is doubtful that the American population is ready for terminator styled soldiers operating independently reliant solely on advanced AI (artificial intelligence) units quite yet, but even that would be a presentable concept when considering the demands that any military action place risk on the troops minimizing any possibility of human casualties.


The stress on military upgrading and rebuilding is simply due to the requirement of a force to back up policy is required if one intends to have a positive position in dealings with other nations or a defensive position which by requirement is overtly careful so as not to provoke anger or rejection knowing that the military is unable to back up and enforce policies and other demands including protection of the homeland and its interests overseas. This is crucial because the next President will be facing difficulties of the United States’ own making across the globe. Europe will be facing economic challenges which will render their policies being ever more defensive and cautious with numerous European nations facing unrest within their borders. The potential for an explosion of bloodshed within the European continent is becoming not only a future threat but approaching transforming into an imminent threat uncontrolled illegal immigration will be approaching the tipping point where the European culture will become challenged which will push the European indigenous population to the point where the decision will be the same as it has been throughout human history when two disparate and opposing cultures reach the point where the minority population decides to attempt, through intimidation and other threats, to impose their norms on the ever shrinking and aging majority replacing their culture and supplanting them as those wielding power going into the future. Should Europe when so challenged react in the fashion which has served them in the past, with such response as often typified be referencing the Inquisitions, the result will be just as or even more horrific. Europe as a whole has a very disturbing history of open warfare between competing positions which were demanding for far lesser changes in the culture causing horrific wars even including civil conflicts within one’s borders. The possibility of similar response today is all too real. One need not look that far afield to bear witness to such results where internal forces rise up and before all is decided, outside forces enter the war hijacking it to forcefully take over the nation wracked already in violence in an attempt to install a new set of leadership just as dictatorial, just as oppressive, just as cruel and potentially even more barbarous than the one being overturned. Such disasters even threaten to redraw the maps casting the formation for the sham and relativity designed solely to enrich foreign investments. Such is what is being fought over and is the main reasoning given by ISIS who is intent on supplanting both the former dictator and those who sought to replace their dictator with a modern system most likely with elected representation resulting in what is oft referred to as a democracy. Should ISIS prove victorious, there will be a new leadership in the form of a Caliph, an old title being restored so as to impose an old dictatorial leadership who takes their claim to the throne based on historic familial relationship to former Caliphs all the way to Muhammad thus adding a religious basis for their power. Such a religious tyranny would be very similar though diametrically opposed to the theocratic dictatorship of Iran, the other eight-hundred-pound gorilla in this struggle. The third leg of this societal struggle would be represented by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil el-Sisi who has yet to be fully defined and is the sole representative desiring to inspire his nation to become the towering example of how an Arab and Muslim state is capable of using elections as the tool for actually choosing the national governance but also guaranteed to be free and open elections even should he be defeated, and then comes the real test as to whether or not the newly elected leader after President Sisi also chooses to continue the liberal march into modernity or chooses to install themselves as the unchallengeable leader of Egypt. Meanwhile, there are three distinct powers currently vying to lead by two of these and the third simply has desires of surviving the current assaults on its existence which has been an active fight since its inception in May of 1948 and has been pressed to remain on the cusp between militaristic power and start-up nation with a thriving economy wishing only to be unleashed by the restraints necessitated by a constant threat of war.


The largest challenge looming on the horizon and very possibly to explode before the end of President Obama’s remaining time in office is of his own doing. The potential for the start of a struggle that would forever change the world may have started once President Obama completes his own set goal of bringing Iran back into the world of nations. The manner in which President Obama set out to perform this miracle would have entailed defanging Iran and then inviting them to join the nations of the world with peaceful intentions by Iran. Instead we have a United States President blindly charging forth demanding this will be his legacy, the making of Iran a coequal partner of the Middle East. The one unavoidable fact is that just as Obamacare (Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act) will be his domestic policy legacy; just as, if not more, dreadful will be his foreign policy legacy as Iran becomes a nuclear power which will have established a basic arsenal of deliverable nuclear warheads consisting of minimally a dozen and more likely three to four dozen with at least one third being thermonuclear warheads (hydrogen fusion warheads). This will place Iran well ahead of whatever plans Saudi Arabia may have in place. This announcement may come at any moment all dependent upon the extent and advancement of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The truth is the world has absolutely no clue as to whether or not Iran already possesses a number of nuclear warheads hidden away from the prying eyes wandering across the skies both orbital and others ground based aircraft. The one truth we do know is that once it becomes obvious that Iran has become a nuclear power, then it will not take numerous other Middle East nations to develop and start building their nuclear weapons arsenals. This new weapons conflict may be solely restrained by the availability of Uranium in any form to be enriched to weapons level of over ninety-percent and then its merging with the rest of the warhead. Below is the list of known nuclear weapons states and an estimate on their numbers of warheads. Once Iran has announced or been determined beyond a reasonable doubt to be armed with nuclear weapons, then the list below will become somewhat obsolete as it is rumored that Saudi Arabia has a standing agreement with Pakistan to purchase approximately one dozen nuclear warheads just so Saudi Arabia will be covered while they acquire and build their own weapons thereafter. One can also expect that Egypt and Turkey would follow suit and develop their own nuclear weapons systems. The breakdown of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also referred to as the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), will tempt certain other members to choose to opt out and develop their own nuclear weapons. Some nations may decide to develop and build their own nuclear weapons while retaining their place on the NPT committees. Some of the other nations which might decide the time has come to join the nuclear club include Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Taiwan and Japan to name a few that came to mind. The nuclear club is perched to become a far larger club of nations where its membership will no longer be the reserved of the very elite but start to resemble another useless body, the United Nations General Assembly which has become a place where the barbarians sit in judgement making decisions that carry no weight behind them beyond the media attention they generate.

1) Russia 7,500
2) United States 7,100
3) France 300
4) China 250
5) United Kingdom 225
6) Pakistan120 (estimated)
7) India 110 (estimated)
8) Israel 80 (estimated)
9) North Korea < 10 (estimated)
10) Iran ??


The final stage is China and her continuous efforts to claim the South China Sea and all the islands found within that general area. The problem is there are other nations who claim these islands and who hold claims just as valid. There is a chance of a conflict here though one has to imagine that China is the eight-hundred-pound gorilla of Asia as her size and modernized army with weapons to match and including nuclear weapons. This is the main reason that Japan, Taiwan and even the Philippines might all be slowly reaching the conclusion that if they are to prevent China taking over the islands one after the other inexorably slinking towards their main Isles thus posing an ever growing threat to these Island nations, they are considering that which would have a decade ago been unthinkable, joining the nuclear armed nations so as to have equal threat potential against China. More as an aside than a warning, one must also remember that the most recent Russian madman, Putin, has delusions of reestablishing Greater Russia and now that China and Russia are back on speaking terms, they have been talking of an alliance for sharing technological advances, nuclear technology, weapons research and development. This has an ominous side in that most terrorist groups have either Russia or China at the head of their supply chain. All taken in, we find the nation of the United States with a military that many have pointed to as merely having the strength the United States could project at the very start of World War II, Russia and China ascending, Iran, supported by Russia and China, being handed nuclear weapons and a very large industrial scale systems to construct said weapons from where they will begin to exercise power over the Middle East and perhaps beyond to Central and South America through Venezuela and Cuba being aided by Russia who appears poised to reacquire the lands of Eastern Europe and Central Eurasia, reestablishing the concept of a Greater Russia. Additionally there is China with an ever more capable navy claiming and taking one island after another while claiming all of the South China Sea and threatening to replace America as the preeminent power in the Pacific including the coastal areas in South America and made all the worse as the United States had gifted China with owning the ports at both ends of the Panama Canal even before the turn of the calendar to the twenty-first century.Then Iran has as luck would have it control over the Straits of Hormuz through which almost all of the Middle Eastern oil is transported to the world and is taking control the straits of Bab el Mandeb through their proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, which grants them control over the Suez Canal as this is where the Red Sea enters the Gulf of Aden leading to the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean and the world thus granting Iran control over one third of the world’s trade and oil while China controls the busiest sea in the South China Sea as well as the second busiest canal in the Panama Canal. How much more change can the world hope to endure?


Beyond the Cusp


July 2, 2015

Life, Iran, ISIS, Our Fates, and an Unknown Future

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One need remember that Iran and Iraq went at each other for a period just short of eight years starting on September 22, 1980 and lasting until August 20, 1988 and was initiated by Saddam Hussein and was largely considered to have been a failure by Iraq as Iran stopped the initial surge dead in its tracks and slowly but inexorably backed the Iraqi troops back and they eventually returned to their initial borders. This was just a part of the history of animosities between Iraq and Iran and was seemingly inevitable that they would go after one another. The fact that it was Saddam Hussein who began the hostilities was not so surprising and he may have even been nudged in that direction by the United States who still harbored great animosity towards the Iranians for the hostage crisis which was yet to have concluded. The United States hostages were not released until after the November Presidential elections on the very hour that President Reagan was sworn in to office. One might be able to claim that the hostage release coinciding with the swearing in of Ronald Reagan might make their release his very first accomplishment as President as few would even think to claim they were released as a sign of respect and a parting gift for President Jimmy Carter. The fact that the war between the secular dictatorial forces of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and the Shiite Muslim Sharia Iranian State of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini fought to a virtual standstill exchanging the same patches of ground as the fates ebbed and flowed neither capable of delivering a decisive blow that might make the other reel and collapse before a superior force. This was, in many ways, a conflict where despite governments picking sides, some places such as Israel was simply glad that the war kept both nations occupied and facing some fire situation which left them so preoccupied that they had little time to think about harming Israel, something else where these two nations might have also competed to see which could injure Israel the most.


Two years, less a mere eighteen days, Iraq decided to invade another neighbor, this time Kuwait. Starting on August 2, 1990 it took a mere two days to August 4, 1990 for Saddam Hussein’s army to sweep across Kuwait. This not only caused Iran to worry that another attack might be in the cards from their nemesis, it also made Saudi Arabia extremely nervous about the possibility that Saddam Hussein might have them in his sights as his next victim. Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz called his good and close friend, President George Herbert Walker Bush and the wheels were put in motion to ride to the rescue. The United States formed a coalition which included a number of Arab and Muslim States which worked under United Nations approval and removed Saddam Hussein’s troops from Kuwait destroying a huge number of the Iraqi armored vehicles including numerous Russian supplied tanks and armored personnel carriers plus scores of trucks and other vehicles. The Iraqi troops caused an unmitigated ecological disaster by setting virtually, if not every, oil well in the Kuwaiti vast oil fields. It took months to extinguish and recap every well and then proceed to put them back into service. Things actually appeared to have settled down in the threats between nations, but that did not mean all was well in the Middle East. Acting on what was interpreted to be United States urgings the Iraqi Shiites in the south and the Kurds in the North made an attempt to dethrone Saddam Hussein expecting the United States to provide some level of assistance. Well, United States assistance was never considered being sent as they had refused to even chase the Iraqi troops back to Baghdad after chasing them from Kuwait. The closest the United States manpower came to Iran was protecting the Americans working in the Kuwaiti oil fields putting out well fires and recapping wells before returning them to service, a task that took several years.


After the 9/11 terror attacks on the twin Trade Center Towers, the Pentagon and another target foiled by the passengers of Flight 93 which they brought down at the cost of their own lives before it could reach its intended target which was believed to have been either the Capital building or the White House and the beginning of the war on terror with the invasions of Afghanistan to find Osama bin Laden and fight al-Qaeda and the Taliban, President George W. Bush requested further authorization to take military action against Saddam Hussein in order to prevent his further manufacture of chemical weapons and to terminate his reputed nuclear weapons program. The alleged nuclear weapons program had been backed by all evidence gathered by the British, the United States, France and the rest of Europe all indicated that Saddam Hussein an advanced nuclear weapons program which could have been completed except for the Israeli attack destroying the French built Osirak Reactor before it could be fueled and used to produce plutonium for a weapon. There is the common misconception that there was none of the precursors for a nuclear weapons program to be found in Iraq during the Second Gulf War. There was a large amount of Yellowcake, a form of raw uranium used for safe transport and storage and can be transformed into uranium hexafluoride which is what is fed into the centrifuges in order to enrich the uranium. Whereas these approximately five-hundred-fifty-tons of yellowcake, that is over one-million-pounds, were from the stores logged back in 1991 and was under the watchful eyes of the IAEA, that does not mean it was impossible for those stores to be utilized to jumpstart Saddam’s dream to attain nuclear weapons had he decided to demand that the IAEA inspectors leave Iraq and then gone full speed ahead in a mad dash towards making a weapon. North Korea has stores of yellowcake which under IAEA guards until it was not under IAEA guards. Granted it might have been difficult to get the yellowcake into production before the world arrived, as they arrived despite Saddam not touching those provisions as there were suspicions backed by faulty intelligence.


Now Saddam Hussein is long gone and Iran has all but annexed the southern third of Iraq, the Shiite controlled area that includes the capital city of Baghdad. The Kurdish has become an entity unto themselves and definitely has autonomy if not complete independence. The Iraqi government, which appears to be weak and feckless with Iran holding the real power but only in the southern third of the nation even partially cemented under their control, has thus far refused to provide any weapons or other provisions to reach either the Kurdish militias or the Sunni tribesmen thus leaving both to their own devices in fighting against such forces such as ISIS which has been marauding and murdering anybody who does not meet their high standards for Islamic purity. This fighting has mostly taken place in the Sunni central area of what has been Iraq and that has left the Sunni stuck between two murderous powers. The Shiite military from the south performs ethnic cleansing whenever they gain sufficient areas to conduct sweeps. It appears that the main people targeted are Sunni males of fighting age. When ISIS takes control of these same areas they too pick the same group and demand that they prove their devotion to Islam by joining the new Caliphate or else suffer the wrath of the true believers. They also threaten the families of these young and middle aged men most of whom just want to be left alone to tend to making a living and caring for their families. ISIS does not care if they are fathers raising a family with young children as they are true warriors for the faith and because their cause is pure, they themselves are pure as are their acts, thus their cause is righteous. This makes their courts just, their drafting of all able-bodied men of fighting age, willingly or not, righteous, their taking of supplies such as food, even if it deprives the people of proper means, is just and all they do and how they go about performing their actions are righteous. Their being holy warriors make anybody opposing their cause or placing themselves contrary to their demands acts of blasphemy. This is why they have been holding public executions and quick trials followed by swift execution of their judgement and the sentence. ISIS has been proving to be a force on the ground with which to contend. Should they ever manage to procure an air force of any size and with even the barest minimum of competence, then ISIS will have the potential to have become at the least an entity possessing the barest minimum for being a nation in the Middle East, at least as a replacement in some ways for Syria.


What will add significantly to the range and broaden the abilities of ISIS would be their gaining the backing of al-Qaeda, something they appear to have been doing piecemeal thus far as one former entity which had sworn their fealty to al-Qaeda are now switching and swearing fealty to ISIS such as Boko Haram. The recent threats made by ISIS may end up spelling their demise as they may be biting off more than they can chew. Their threats to replace the Arab Palestinian Authority actually make complete sense as they are two opposing sides of the forces against Israel. Where ISIS are Islamists who follow a strict interpretation of the Quran which defines their form of the Sharia, the Arab Palestinian Authority are secularist, socialist with a small semblance of democratic principles as long as such does not threaten those in the highest places. The Arab Palestinian Authority represent the most vile and far removed form of Islamic governance that one can find, they are oil and water, or more likely pure sodium and water. Hamas, on the other hand, has a very similar charter stand for the same world conquest and placing all of the world’s people under the banner of Sunni Islam by whatever means necessary. As Hamas and Islamic Jihad might have a better than average probability of joining ISIS as a whole entity and thus giving ISIS additional manpower which has already been tested in combat. The statement made by ISIS which could prove their taking on a nut they are unable to crack was their threat to also tackle Israel. The IDF would not need to hold back fighting ISIS as they habitually have been forced into doing with every possible entity watching their every move just waiting to pounce should Israel operate without the strictest of restraints almost requesting permission to return fire when her troops come under fire. The probability that ISIS will open up a new front within its current operating theater would be tactical suicide. Currently ISIS has three fronts, their borders with the Kurdish Peshmerga Militias who are well trained and disciplined holding the northern front in Iraq and the northeastern front in Syria, the Alawites are holed up with their backs against the Mediterranean Sea in the northwest rim of Syria, IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and the remnants of the Iraqi Army in the south of Iraq and the entirety of their eastern front is the rest of the Iranian armed forces should they push in an eastern and there have been hints dropped this week that President Erdogan has made intonations that Turkey is considering moving down into Syria to scoop up as much of the lands as they are able and that would place another front for ISIS to face off against and of course ISIS has mentioned their desire to take control over the holy cities of Mecca and Medina which would involve a war with Saudi Arabia which would also bring the Egyptians into the fray. ISIS has one service they are providing the world at this stage, they are breaking apart the Iranian crescent by destroying Bashir al-Assad and breaking the direct link from Tehran through Baghdad on through Damascus and through to Beirut or Latakia, Baniyas, Sidon, Tartus, or Tyre and then out into the waters of the Mediterranean Sea. ISIS is a horrific and barbaric entity on the order of something like a Saddam Hussein who gassed thousands of his own countrymen. Saddam Hussein rivaled Hafez al-Assad, the man who had murdered more Syrian people than any enemy until his son, Bashir al-Assad, became what appears to be the last president who may have set the bar to such a height for percentage of one’s nation either murdered, rendered without shelter, made into refugees, fled the nation or been imprisoned or simply disappeared without a trace. For the sake of the Western World it would be to their advantage for ISIS to engage fully with Iran preventing them the peaceful times which would allow them to pursue their nuclear weapons program to its completion including the ICBM missiles which could easily reach anywhere on earth. Maybe it is the fate of ISIS to foil the plans and progresses of the Iranians as United States President evidently will not go so. So, once again we find that silver lining within one of our darkest of clouds. Still, how long will we live with a world where we have to rely on scoundrels to do the work of an elected charlatan?


Beyond the Cusp


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