Beyond the Cusp

May 29, 2015

Syrian War Winner and Losers

Filed under: Act of War,Air Fields,Allah,Amalekites,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab Spring,Arab Winter,Arab World,Arabist,Army Chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi,Bab-el-Mandeb,Babylon,Beheading,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Calaphate,Caliphate,Civil War,Civilization,Clan,Conflict Avoidnce,Coptic Christians,Dhimmi,Dictator,Egypt,Egyptian Military,Europe,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Fatwa,Foreign Funding,Government,Hate,Hezballah,History,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,IRGC,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jihad,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Libya,Middle East,Military Council,Ministers,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Nationalist,Nationalist Pressures,Nebuchadnezzar II,Nuclear Option,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,P5+1,Pakistan,Parliament,Persians,Politicized Findings,Politics,Power,President Morsi,President Sisi,Pressure by Egyptian People,Rebel Forces,Religion,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Saudi Military,Shiite,Sinai Peninsula,Soldiers,Sunni,Syrian Military,Taqiyya,Theocracy,Threat of War,Threat of War,Tribe,Turkish Military,Twelvers,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,War,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,World Without Zionism or America,Yemen,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:26 AM
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The Syrian war is about to finally enter its terminal stage. This is not something to be celebrated as there is only one winner and a ton of losers. Without any doubt the largest losers are the Syrian people who now have no country. Syria will be a nation in ruin for as far as the mind can see. Once the Assad government final is completely destroyed and the Alawites have paid the price for the Assad families’ decades of ruthless leadership where millions died just because the Assad family feared they might turn against their governing, then the Syrian fighting will simply be every factions, tribe and even clan contesting land until eternity. The war will rage on ravaging what is already a nation in ruin even further down the scale of civil rule. It is highly likely that Syria will never emerge from the ashes and the Syrian people will inherit a nation at war with itself with no relief from the horrors similarly to what is still ravaging Libya long after their dictator paid the price for his savagery. Bashir al-Assad will probably be more fortunate as he will probably take refuge in Iran, Russia or somewhere in Europe where he and his family will live quietly and under an assumed identity spending what is likely to be billions of Euros they have stashed in numbered Swiss accounts. Some might see this as their having come out as winning but they will also be living that life or relative luxury constantly looking over their shoulder checking for an inevitable assassination of Bashir al-Assad if not a slaughter of his entire family some night when something went bump in the night and their house was transformed into their tomb.

 

There will be numerous leaders of different factions of the groups fighting against Assad who will claim to have won and may even spend a few hours in celebration of the final end of Assad family rule before the next stage of the fighting begins to determine who will be the final winner. Unfortunately for the people of the Arab and soon greater Muslim worlds, when the entirety becomes a contest to determine who gets to form the next Caliphate then everyone loses as the fighting envelops a larger and larger area with numerous factions fighting against each other and eventually factions melding to be stronger and fighting to be the final victor as there can be only one Caliph and soon there may be countless contesters for that throne. This fighting promises to eventually cut the Muslim world into large factions with regular breaking down between allies just making the fighting even more destructive. The initial fighting will continue across Syria, Libya and Iraq for the foreseeable future with a few contesters being the forces to watch. The most obvious element is ISIS which claims to have their tentacles reaching across the different areas where fighting is active, even in Yemen. The news has reported of ISIS factions beheading some twenty Egyptian Coptic Christians which garnered them some attention from Egypt which carried out a series of airstrikes. This provides the simple truth of what it will take for ISIS to actually be capable of successfully claiming the leadership and establishing the next Caliphate, air-power. So far ISIS has not given even a tentative sign that they have any air capabilities. There was mention after ISIS captured an airbase in Syria of their intending to train pilots for the establishing of an ISIS air force. They managed to get a few jets into the sky which were immediately shot down by actual fighters from the Syrian Air Force. The next step was the destruction of every aircraft on the ground by two or three days of airstrikes rendering the airfield useless and destroying every aircraft they could target. So much for an ISIS air force.

 

ISIS will be a terrorist organization, though a powerful one for now, until they somehow manage to garner air-power in the form of aircraft and fully trained pilots to fly them. There will be only one way for this to occur, and that would be for a number of flight squadrons to take to the air and land on an airstrip already within ISIS controlled area bringing as much weaponry for their aircraft as they are able to carry. If such defections are well planned before their execution these pilots and some ground crews for servicing their aircraft, as such will be vital, will also have some cargo aircraft loaded with munitions, spare parts and everything necessary to sustain an active air force no matter how small. Obviously this would require either an entire nation’s air crews or a number of squadrons following suit in rapid succession thus forming not only the beginning core of an air force but instead a complete and functioning air force capable of defending their airfields as well as providing ground support and other missions. Anything less and ISIS will remain a terrorist group even if a powerful terrorist entity, but not yet the nation or even contender for the title of Caliphate. So, who are the real qualifiers for the title of leaders of the Caliphate?

 

Unfortunately ISIS is still the number one contender as they have the appearance as the strong horse with the plans and the fire to get the Caliphate started and lead the fighting forces to eventual victory and the unification of the entirety of the Ummah (Arabic: أمة‎‎). As pointed out, if ISIS is to eventually prove the leadership of the new Caliphate they will require a real air force which has thus far eluded them. That leads us to the more obvious candidates but first let’s list some of the non-state actors who will eventually play a role in the determining the next Caliphate. The first one to come to mind is the father of so many of the Arab and Islamist terrorist and non-state actors across the expanse of the Muslim world, the Muslim Brotherhood. Another entity with the structures in place for making a claim is al-Qaeda. A third would have to be the Taliban though their reach is limited; they do have well trained fighters who are highly motivated. Despite the Muslim Brotherhood, Taliban and al-Qaeda having extensive ties and supporters, they have the same problems as does ISIS, no air power. For this reason, none of these groups have much of a chance of defeating an actual state whose military is well formed and capable of fighting a modern war against what would have to be viewed as a terrorist entity in the eyes of the national leadership and armed forces. The main duty beyond holding the line against the terror entity would be keeping control through the ranks, especially the air force, to prevent defections to the other side, something which occurred with some of the Sunni military and security forces in Iraq and Syria. There were even a few pilots who defected over to ISIS but not in sufficient numbers to even form a single squadron of fighter air corps.

 

There are currently four nations which might be considered capable of eventually forming the next Caliphate if such is what is fated. These are in no particular order, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt. A fifth possible nation would have to be Pakistan if for no other reason than their being a nuclear armed nation. The nations who currently are allied in the fight against the Iranian proxy Houthis fighting for control of Yemen and most importantly, the Bab-el-Mandeb narrows at the southern end of the Red Sea and controlling access from the Red Sea into the Gulf of Aden and onto the Arabian Sea and beyond, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. This is a perfect alliance as Saudi Arabia has the oil wealth while Egypt has a strong, well-armed and well-trained military which has proven their unity and discipline over the trying period of two changes in governance over the past three years which the military retained its ranks and officer corps and structure throughout. The greatest threat to the Saudi-Egyptian alliance is obviously Iran which could become favored to gain the upper hand in this contest once they attain their own production of nuclear weapons, a structure that is greatly formed already and presumably not producing such weapons due to their negotiating with the P5+1 and possibly fearing actions by the United States should they actually proceed and build a nuclear weapons stockpile. This likely means that Iran is doing exactly that, as they have no respect, let alone fear, of any threat the United States might currently make. Once it becomes obvious that Iran has produced nuclear weapons, it is expected and been confirmed unofficially that Saudi Arabia will be exercising their agreement to purchase, most likely at wholesale, a dozen, or a few dozen, nuclear devices and the delivery system to go with them in the case they are warheads rather than bombs. This would allow for the Saudis to develop, which means build the facilities, their own nuclear program. The Saudi Arabian scientists and necessary technicians are already trained and ready to take up the challenge of producing nuclear weapons as they have received such plans from Pakistan in exchange for their subsidizing the Pakistani drive to produce their own nuclear weapons in response to India having done so. The Saudi access to nuclear weapons production will serve to perpetuate into perpetuity the alliance between Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

 

With the establishment of an alliance between Saudi Arabia and Egypt one side and Iran and whatever remnants of Iraq, Syria and probably Lebanon as ISIS and the other rebel groups who will have brought down Bashir al-Assad will still have numerous scores to settle with Hezballah which any international borders will not be capable of standing in the way preventing this vengeance from being extracted. The above alliance leaves such powers as Turkey and Pakistan on the outside in the cold, so to speak. Pakistan is most likely to remain on the outside simply observing as a mostly disinterested spectator who if forced to choose would most likely ally with the Saudis and company as they have had a mutually advantageous relationship over the decades, despite Pakistan receiving much of their oil from Iran, it is likely that the Saudis could take care of any need in that area. That leaves Turkey to figure on which direction they are most likely to take. The direction Turkey would take depends on who is in power. Currently their leader for as long as most can remember has been Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Should Erdogan remain in power, which way he would choose would be in question. President Erdogan has over the years shown to side with the Iranians, Saudis and even Egypt alternately. Currently there is a significant rift between Turkey and Egypt over the ouster of President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood governance and replacing it with the chosen General of the Army President Sisi. The Turkish government, which is to say Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has held fast demanding that President Sisi step down as President and place Morsi back on his Presidential pedestal along with the entirety of the Muslim Brotherhood government the last elections replaced. As doing so would most definitely lead to the loss of the lives of most of the upper echelons of the Egyptian military, this scenario is highly unlikely. If sentences are to be carried out swiftly there may no longer be a former President Morsi to return to the position as he and hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood leaders have been sentenced to death recently by the Egyptian courts. Meanwhile, Erdogan has alternately shown affinity for Iran though currently has remained surprisingly neutral and silent reserving his vitriol for Israel, always the default position one can take to insulate themselves from outside harms. Determining which direction Turkey might take under Erdogan is a guessing game and probably will remain that way until one side or the other proves the victor and then Erdogan would ingratiate himself to the victor. If he were to choose, he appears to favor Iran possibly due to their presence in Syria and thus along his southern border. Without Erdogan Turkey would naturally side with Saudi Arabia and Egypt as they would no longer be seen as supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.

 

The question as to which side would prove victorious between a Saudi Arabian led coalition or Iran is a tougher call. It might all depend on which side was willing to use their ultimate weapon with sufficient deployment so as to end the ability of the other side to resist. Where I have some doubts that the Saudis would be the first to use nuclear weapons in the Middle East, I have no doubts that such would be the primary first strike or response to hostilities in order to simply end any contest and declare their victory. Should such an event ever be presented to the world, their answer should be carefully decided and decisively delivered. Should Iran use nuclear weapons against her adversaries on the Middle East and willingly bring such devastation to fellow Muslims, even if they were predominantly Sunni and not Shiite, then the rest of the world had best believe they would receive nothing less. Should Iran launch such a barrage, it would be surprising if they did not at the same time launch attacks by multiple means on Europe and the United States as well as any other nation they might perceive to be capable of mounting a credible resistance to their eventual world-wide victory. But even Iran does not appear to be quite that ruthless or willing to wreak such devastation on such a scale.

 

Should they prove to be that hardhearted and coldblooded as to end civilization as we know it, then it would prove a suspicion I had way back when a cursory review of the predictions of Nostradamus was in vogue and fascinated one youth after viewing a special on television where they gave lengthy coverage to his future vision of the world falling to a man from the Middle East wearing a blue turban. Despite every publication and prediction claiming that this meant Iraq I held stubbornly to my feelings that it signified Iran, and I do mean stubbornly. Often I was dismissed as a lost cause incapable of listening to reason but I had my faith that Persia would rise again and not Babylonia. Historically the Babylonians surrendered to the Persians almost joyously as their ruler had lost his mind after burning three Israelites (Jews) for not bowing before him and they somehow proved to be fireproof, well, at least for that moment as they cried out to G0d and were saved from a fiery death. This proved a bit much for the mind of King Nebuchadnezzar II who lost his mind unable to believe or understand that such a miracle was possible and that he was not the most powerful even in his own kingdom, his capital city even.

 

As is often the case, the eventual end to this will entail a fair degree of insanity, a touch of the impossible, room for a number of miracles, even more so should Israel somehow become involved. Perhaps this might be the place to end with a final word on the probable path Hezballah may be about to tread. Once the remaining forces, the few, the perplexed, the Syrian remnants; then Hezballah will find themselves pretty much alone as the IRGC forces will stake out a radius around Damascus and wherever else they determine is vital to Iran such as the port where the Russian fleet is docked, Latakia, and perhaps a few places in Lebanon as well. Should Iranian plans not include providing safety for the last remnants of the Syrian military, they certainly will not be protecting Hezballah. The Iranians may well understand that should they not side with the remnants of the defenders of Assad that their retaining the choice areas they believe essential to their requirements will be more readily accepted and produce minimal resistance. That leaves Hezballah pretty much out in the cold and in need of some reinforcement to their devotion to Allah and commitment to the perpetual cause, the eradication of the Zionist entity, Israel. The end result will be the same and Hezballah should prove to be better served for survival by fighting Israel than fighting ISIS. It needs to be remembered that Hezballah, just like ISIS, has no air force. This deficiency will prove fatal for them in either battle, against Israel it is obvious, they will have little recourse against Israeli air power, and against ISIS it places them on an even playing field with ISIS currently being the more motivated and Hezballah having superior training and better knowledge of the terrain as well as having heavily fortified bunker and tunnel system in southern Lebanon, their home turf. Either path will probably be the final battles Hezballah will ever engage in. Even should they start a war with Israel, that does not necessarily rule out a final settling of grievances with ISIS, it would just mean that final reckoning coming after Israel had smashed their bunkers and tunnels and decimated their rocket and other heavy weaponry. Anyway one slices it, there is a better than average probability that we will have seen the last of Hezballah by Summer’s end. That may be the cherry atop the ice cream Sunday and a gift to the civilized world out of the ashes of Syria.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 19, 2015

Signs of the Coming Pivotal Showdowns

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,Absolutism,Administration,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Authority,Ayatollah,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollahs,Banking Failure,Benyamin Netanyahu,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Cabinet,Cairo,Calaphate,Civilization,Conflict Avoidnce,Coverup,Dhimmi,Dictator,Ease Sanctions,Economic Sanctions,Economy,Egypt,Equal Responsibility,Equal Rights,Equal Treatment,Equality,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Federica Mogherini,Foreign Aid,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Foreign Trade,Framework,France,Germany,Government,Government Control,Great Britain,Green Line,Hamas,Hamas Charter,Hassan Rowhani,Hezballah,History,Hudna,IDF,Ineffective Sanctions,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jen Psaki,Jerusalem,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Home,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,John Kerry,Jordan River,Judea,Judean Hills,Kotel,Land for Peace,Leftist Pressures,Leftist Propaganda,Mediterranean Sea,Middle East,Military Trade,Missile Research,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Muslim World,Netanyahu,Non Binding Resolution,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Research,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Old City,Oslo Accords,P5+1,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Parchin,Peace Process,Persia,Persians,Plutonium Production,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,President for Life,President Obama,President Sisi,Qom,Reapply Sanctions,Remove Sanctions,Resolution,Russian Pressure,Samaria,San Remo Conference,Sanctions,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Scientific Research,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Security,Shah,Shiite,Socialism,State Department,Statehood,Strong Sanctions,Sunni,Supreme Leader,Syria,Tel Aviv,Temple Mount,Trade,Twelvers,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,Uranium Enrichment,Victoria Nuland,Warhead Development,Weapons of Mass Destruction,Western Wall,White House,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,World Without Zionism or America,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:27 AM
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The Middle East has never seen the conflux of terminal situations as it is being currently forced to witness. Needless to point out that all of them have an Israeli contingency or are solely placing its sights squarely on Israel. The most obvious is the Iranian nuclear threat and the lacking of a spine amongst the Western Powers leaving once again the solution squarely with Israel, which begs the question as to what will the world, particularly the Western Powers, do if the problem is shown to be beyond Israeli conventional capabilities thus leaving the choice between Western Power intervention, a nuclear armed Iran spreading its hegemonic desires upon the Middle East, Northern Africa and all of Europe or, potentially the worst possible solution, a tactical nuclear strike to decapitate the Iranian leadership by any of the nations potentially threatened by a nuclear Iran. The obvious best scenario would be for the Western Powers, particularly the United States or the European Union acting as a single power including its complete membership acting as one to make known to Iran that either they terminate their nuclear weapons dreams, dismantle their nuclear sites allowing for inspections of every step along the way to assure compliance or face even more all-inclusive sanctions than Iran has faced to this point. Unfortunately, the United States is currently led by a President who sees empowering Iran and making them the new main ally of the United States with Iran in the superior position and the United States engaged as the supportive partner providing cover through negotiations to permit nuclear weapons capability of deliverable warheads, not just a single warhead but potentially hundreds of deliverable nuclear warheads spanning the complete range from thermonuclear city-busting devices to EMP yields capable of striking down the electrical grids of the continental United States and Canada or the entirety of Europe or the Russian grid including surrounding satellite nations to tactical weapons deployable in support of ground-forces engaging any foe’s opposing armies. This would be the result of the current Framework should the Farsi translation as claimed by the Iranian nuclear negotiating hierarchy which has been backed fully by the leadership and finally given the stamp of authenticity by the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei (in Farsi: حسینی خامنه‌ای سید علی) be proven valid and still acceptable.

 

Thus far, there has been total silence given as a response by the White House which implies that they know full well that the Framework they allowed the Iranians to mold due to the United States team’s compliance and their taking the position of explaining the Iranian demands being planted as the Framework was the better choice than implementing a military response as no sane individual desires to start a war. The reasoning by President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and the entirety of the United States negotiators is flawless as long as the sole alternative to the present situation was to start a war, a completely specious and disingenuous choice which is fully noted by the White House. President Obama is presenting a dishonestly fallacious choice and he knows so. This was the given alternative when President Obama responded to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu speech to a Joint Session of Congress where the underlying theme of his speech was that war was not the sole and obvious alternative to this bad deal, a better deal brought forth through the reapplication of the relaxed sanctions and potentially the imposition of even stricter and more encompassing sanctions but never war. President Obama along with White House Spokesperson Josh Earnest and supporting members of the White House public interface as well as the myriad of spokespeople from the State Department such as but not limited to Jen Psaki, Victoria Nuland and Marie Harf have all adopted the proven irrational choice as between whatever deal eventually is hammered out or war. The first falsehood is it is well known that President Obama will not only refuse to choose the military option; he will not even move it on the table to give the appearance of having been considered. With the United States actually taking the other side, evidence provided by Amir Hossein Mottaghi, known to have managed media, Internet and other electronic dealings for Rouhani during his 2013 Presidential election campaign, sought asylum and in interviews related how the Iranian media at the Lausanne negotiations were merely tools used to control the information fed to the Iranian people. But Amir Hossein Mottaghi’s biggest coup was his reporting that, “The US negotiating team are mainly there to speak on Iran’s behalf with other members of the P5+1 countries and convince them of a deal.”

 

Apparently the most feasible, productive and potentially desirable outcome has to be a better deal than what has been made as evidenced by the Iranians with their apparent belief that the Framework Agreement stipulates allowing them to continue with their nuclear program unhindered by the coming deal. The Iranians fully expect to dictate the terms for the final agreement and President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry will take that as the direction for the P5+1 to go. This has to be prevented and the fastest and most probable path to successfully doing so would be attained simply by the European Union taking the lead dismissing the United States as having become useless. The Europeans first move after dismissing the United States leadership would be to threaten to reapply the strongest sanctions so as to get the full attention of the Iranian leadership. Perhaps with a new threat of actually having an opposing side would bring the Iranians back to the negotiating table this time duly shamed thus ready to actually negotiate and realize that they will not be permitted to continue having everything their way. Once the European Union had coordinated with the United Nations and brought them on board with the Europeans’ rejection of the leadership role played by the United States, the European Union would necessarily need to carry negotiations forward at a speed far faster than the United States which would be potentially possible simply by using the original draft of a Framework with the major points which the United States has dropped until the Framework Agreement had become meaningless. The European Union taking such an initiative might just jumpstart the United States role as a senior or lead negotiator. Should the United States attempt to reestablish their predominance within the workings of the negotiations, the European Union should refuse such a move further reestablishing their reassuming the lead role. One might even desire going so far as to relieve the United States of having an overriding veto over any of the provisions as their actions have proven their lack of serious desire to even minimally restrict the Iranian nuclear program. Anything short of rejecting the current Framework and returning to the basic demands from before the United States eventually stripped them of any relevance would make all efforts futile. There is still the possibility of having a finished and signed better deal by the end of June providing that the European Union is willing to take a principled stance or if they are going to permit this freak-show being staged by the United States Iran will be a nuclear armed nation by Christmas. Serious reapplication of the full range of sanctions would get the full attention of the European insistence that Iran become serious or face really serious sanctions going forward for as long as it takes. These were the sanctions which had actually brought the Iranians to the negotiating table and were also the sanctions which President Obama just could not wait to relax that he held private talks with the Iranians and relaxed the sanctions without receiving even a single concession. That has become the latest way that negotiations have operated with the rest of the P5+1 joining sessions which are held so that the United States can dictate the latest surrender of points to the Iranians and present them as great victories though anybody with 20/20 vision and half a brain can see they are exactly the opposite as each rendition is weaker than the previous and the whole while the United States has pulled hard for weakening the sanctions. But unfortunately the European Union has been so weakened that their once proud nations which traveled the globe with their strong forces of trade protected by navies and marines who were the envy of the world are no more and their dependence on the protections of other nations has left them incapable of taking such a lead role.

 

But there has been one place where the Europeans have found their abilities to act with resolute strength, Israel. The European Union and individual governments have already primed the engines of industry to rush into Iran as soon as sanctions are lifted, if they even wait that long after witnessing the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system recently reactivated violating both the Iranian sanctions still in place and the sanctions against their engaging in such activities due to their offenses in the Ukraine. The strongest words about the Russian jumping the gun did emanate from the White House where President Obama stated his surprise that the Russians held off this long considering the weakness displayed by the United States and other nations involved in the negotiations with Iran. But these same weaklings who are unable to even look the Iranian leadership in the eye will glare at Israel demanding her surrender of all lands which International Law assigns as legally Israeli lands. The Europeans do not care and for as long as the United States shows no favor to their longtime loyal friend, the Europeans will continue displaying their hatred for Israel with some expressing regrets over voting for the Jewish State both in 1920 after the initial findings during the San Remo Conference and again in November of 1947 which may have actually had much to do with the revelations of the Holocaust and the extent the hatreds were permitted by the allies as well as the axis powers. But now the many nations, especially the so proper and perfect in their attire and manner of speech always sticking to the approved progressive reasons and smugly purporting such superiority while they quiver before the Muslim threats they have no difficulty demonizing and walking forward with the destruction of Israel, the Jewish State, for they are fully aware that Israel will not strike them for their spiteful hatred while the Muslims might smite them even if they demur perfectly into their roles as Dhimmi bowing before their Islamic masters. The world will soon face a choice, a great choice which will be their final choice, Israel or Islam, with which will each of us stand? The choice in this instance is not merely for nations but for individuals to choose. Needless to point out that should an individual living in any nations that stands to ally with Israel and you choose to ally with Islam, you will have your choice protected, but if you choose Israel and your nation chooses Islam then you had best move to a nation which will accept your choice for the nations that choose Islam will be unable to couch an individual who desired any other choice. The clouds have been on the horizon for as long as I can remember, and I can remember back to President Ike and the campaign buttons screaming, “I Like Ike!” Those were good days in so many ways and also had their share of evil, an evil which sought to minimize the presence of Blacks in many public places as well as private. Lesser remembered were the places both public but mostly private where a Jew was unwelcome. The sixties and seventies came and went and much of the segregations had been eliminated yet there were still those private clubs closed to Black and Jew alike. Eventually these hatreds were supposedly conquered but we all know those few Neanderthals who refuse to bury their hatreds. In the United States the religion which has had the most hateful crimes perpetrated against them from 1900 to 2000 was far and away Jews. Since 2001 and the World Trade Center disaster the popular opinion has been that Islam became the religion which suffered the most hate crimes but that perception is not backed up by the statistics as the Jews remain the religion with the highest number of hate crimes perpetrated against them.

 

The real sadness is the singling out of the Jews over the centuries has now been applied to the national home for the Jews. This is beyond any moral fathoming and the world has but two societies which support the nation of Israel, one obvious and the other far less so. The largest support for Israel comes from the Evangelical Christians who easily surpass the Jews in their support. As difficult as it may be to believe, the Evangelical Christians support Israel in a higher percentage than does the Jewish community in the United States and this is even after discounting those religious Chassidim communities who do not accept Israel due to religious interpretations of Torah believing that Israel is to be established by the Messiah and not before. Still the Jewish communities within the United States take second place behind the Evangelical Christians in their support for Israel. Why, you might ask, would the Jews not be at one-hundred-percent supporting of Israel? The Jews who least support Israel are the least observant of strict Jewish traditions and commandments. These are Jews who have redefined their Jewish religious observance to match the progressive agendas. They place acceptance of all individuals above Jewish laws about marriage by their not only accepting same sex marriages but condone performing such ceremonies with their Rabbi officiating in their Sanctuaries. They replaced the idea of perfecting the world through doing all possible to perfect oneself and by such example change the world with the ideal that for every problem there must be a government program to address and form a solution, which is normally to just throw money at the problem. They have replaced G0d with government and thus are comfortable with an all-powerful government as government is the source of all goodness. They sold their soul to the progressive cause, have also accepted the progressive leftist beliefs that Israel is an Apartheid state which persecutes the Palestinians and is illegitimate, and are most likely to condemn Israel of any crime anyone brings against Israel. As a Zionist, very likely from birth, I have always had difficulty interacting with the Progressive, leftist, whites are the source of all evil, Israel has no right to exist, whacko, crazy, lunatic-leftist, earth-first, Ghia worshipping, statist Jews by birth only. Whenever I meet one when traveling even within Israel I carefully refuse to speak about even the weather as that inevitable is taken straight to what in the current weather will bring the end of all life on the planet we are all doomed to some anthropomorphic apocalyptic cataclysm. Did I mention also insane and you do not want to know how I really feel.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 28, 2015

The Nuclear Deal About to Emerge Hot from the Oven

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,1967 Borders,Act of War,Administration,Alberto Nisman,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Arab Authority,Argentina,Assembly of Experts,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,Blood Libel,Borders,Breakout Point,Calaphate,Caliphate,Catherine Ashton,Civilization,Conflict Avoidnce,Coverup,Czechoslovakia,Dhimmi,Dictator,Domestic NGOs,Ease Sanctions,Economic Sanctions,Egypt,EMP Device,Europe,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,German Pressure,Germany,Government,Greece,Green Line,Hamas,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,History,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Intifada,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jihad,John Kerry,Leftist Pressures,Middle East,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Mongol Hordes,Munich Accord of 1938,Muslim Expansionism,Muslim Invade Europe from the East,Muslim World,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Obama,P5+1,Persians,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,Prime Minister,Remove Sanctions,Russian Pressure,Sanctions,Saudi Arabia,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Shiite,Strong Sanctions,Sunni,Supreme Leader,Tel Aviv,Threat of War,Tri Border Region,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,Uranium Enrichment,Weapons of Mass Destruction,Western World,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,World War II,World War III,World Without Zionism or America,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:04 AM
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The deal has been done for probably a week or two with the great drama being acted by some of the most consummate political dramatists on the face of the earth, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani whose fame he credits to his ability to glad-hand and smile disarmingly while negotiating earlier nuclear talks and simultaneously increasing the number of centrifuges by a factor of hundreds, Iranian Foreign Minister and lead negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif whose charms have been regularly reflected by the dreamy looks pooling in the former European Union Foreign Minister Lady Catherine Aston, and finally United States Secretary of State John Kerry who in his foremost starring role before the United States Senate where he adamantly swore that his fellow soldiers in Viet Nam had committed crimes and swarmed across the nation and “razed villages in fashion reminiscent of Genghis Khan.” These men along with a stellar emphasis to everything being played by the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei who echoed the chanting crowds in Tehran this week in their carefully choreographed performance shouting in response to his lead in their weekly performance of “Death to America.” All this theater will climax culminating next week, which would not be complete without the man who made all this possible by directing the American surrender point by point, President Barack Obama, whose entire schedule has been cleared past Monday in preparation of a signing ceremony. All this was made clear by White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest who stated, “The president’s schedule for the rest of the week actually remains pretty fluid.” When pressed for further information he coyly replied, “We’ve got some more details on the schedule that need to be hammered out.” As if this was sufficient high drama, a British diplomat told reporters on the sidelines of negotiations in Lausanne, Switzerland, “We have made substantial progress in a number of areas but there are still important issues where no agreement has so far been possible. Our task, therefore, for the next few days is to see if we can bridge the gaps and arrive at a political framework which could then be turned into an agreement.” Such high drama it makes one’s head spin almost twisting it off but simply making the reader dizzy.

 

All this drama has had a price, a price which was paid by one side taking a grand and novel approach to negotiations which was explained not long ago as the instructions given to the United States negotiating team that when meeting Iranian resistance to any proposal to simply agree to put that item aside and pursue the next point all in order to emphasize those things the two sides were in agreement on so as to have a favorable report of accomplishments which could be presented to the media and to move the talks forward. This plan was to set the stage for final negotiations on the remaining subjects which were considered important enough to readdress. This leads one to question as to what percentage of the bypassed subjects where Iran showed any amount of opposition were left bypassed and what percentage were considered worth readdressing and pressing for a workable compromise short of a complete surrender. Another point which is as preposterous an idea as any I have heard is the ten year expiration date on the agreement after which the Iranians would no longer have any restrictions they would have to abide and could move full speed towards the manufacture of as many nuclear warheads of any designs including multiple warhead, thermonuclear warheads, Super EMP warheads which the Russians have informed they gave to the Iranians, tactical nuclear warheads deliverable by moderate range ballistic missiles or even artillery or any other designs they may have developed with no restrictions on total numbers. One can only guess how many warheads the Iranians might produce in the first few years after the agreement expires after a decade. What is surprising is that the length of the agreement was not closer to four or five years thus just long enough that the next President would be facing a very brief period in which to press for a new treaty but would be restricted on the means to pressure Iran as economic sanctions would be off the table until the treaty expired and then would not be sufficiently successful in pressing Iran to negotiate for probably three to five years during which they would be producing as many warheads as they were capable. No matter which way one looks at the coming agreement, there is no way to give it a favorable reality.

 

Still, President Obama has assured us that there is no way we can know what will come to pass in the decade respecting the governance of Iran. He offered the supposition that within the decade there was a good possibility that Iran would become a functioning government which would eschew nuclear weapons and decide that being accepted within the community of nations and having favorable standing while pursuing trade relations with the western nations as well as in Asia and the rest of the world giving up on their desire for nuclear weapons. While in a decade’s time the United States may have elected their second or even third President succeeding President Obama and who knows how much they may change the nation but we can probably safely bet that Iran will have a very similar governance as they currently possess with the only likely change being their President and their parliament while they might also have some new faces on the Assembly of Experts of the Leadership and a new set of leaders sitting on the twelve member Guardian Council of the Constitution but they are also very likely to still have as their Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. In the event of his death, then we will see a similar new Supreme Leader where the greatest change will not be in his views and policies he will execute but maybe his name will show a greater degree of change than Khamenei differed from his predecessor Khomeini. The continuity of the policies under Khomeini and then followed by Khamenei differed not much more than their names sounded different, in other words they were equally obsessed with exporting the Shiite form of Islam, gaining superiority over the rest of the Muslim world, especially over Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the rest of the oil producing Gulf states, the death and destruction of Israel as well as the United States, leading the Muslim world and sweep across Europe and seeking hegemonic preeminence over as much of the world as they prove capable with some claiming that there might even be a special desire to swarm marauding over the Greek Islands as revenge for Alexander the Great’s crushing victory over the Persian Army at the Battle of Gaugamela, some national pride demands holding grudges a little longer than others, but all the way from 331 B.C. seems a bit much. The best bet is that Iranian governance will not be changed in the near or foreseeable future which makes the making an agreement with a sunset clause all the more problematic, yet the Iranians are threatening to sink the negotiations as even that decade is too long for them to wait to claim their ultimate weapons.

 

There have been reports that the French, yes, the French, are the most skeptical of the terms of the agreement and as we mentioned just a few days ago, the French may be the world’s last hope of forcing the negotiations to produce a better deal or possibly blowing up the negotiations completely if the Iranians demand that the deal they have accepted be signed or they will take their ball and go home without any deal. That there might be no deal, though I would bet that President Obama would sign any deal with Iran all by himself even if all the other P5+1 nations, France, Britain, Germany and even unbelievable as it is, Russia and China, all refused the deal brokered each for their own reasons. President Obama has proven to the Iranian leadership through actions and even inactions, words and silence, and in every way possible and even some thought impossible, that he desperately not only wants but must have a deal with the Iranian signature next to his signature just as badly as did British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain desired a treaty signed by he along with a reluctant French Prime Minister Édouard Daladier and principally German Chancellor Adolf Hitler along with Italian Prime Minister Benito Mussolini who was of lesser importance in Munich with the completion of the Munich Agreement of 1938 which sacrificed Czechoslovakia and led near directly to World War II. Let us pray that the agreement with Iran does not similarly lead to Iran swarming across the Gulf oil kingdoms and then on to the Sudan and into Egypt and Libya as well as Jordan and even Turkey.

 

That brings us to the recent war of words with Turkey recently complaining that Iran was attempting to dominate the Middle East which drew a response from Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif accusing Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan of fomenting all of the strife in the Middle East likely referring to the rumors that Turkey is financing ISIS and permitting infiltrators desiring to join ISIS to access Syria by crossing the Turkish-Syrian border unopposed. Add to this the Saudi airstrikes on the presumed Iranian supplied and tactically aided with intelligence Houthis who have taken control of the capital in Yemen and are attempting to push further across Yemen unseating al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and giving Iran a southern border threat against Saudi Arabia. As to this the active support Iran provides for Syrian dictator al-Assad, their supplying both Hamas and Hezballah presumably to threaten Israel and prevent the Israelis from striking the Iranian nuclear sites and potentially beyond that and striking their command and control, military bases and even the halls of power attempting to decapitate the Iranian leadership and finally aiding Iraq fighting ISIS to the point that Iran now appears to be taking the lead in this defense of Iraq and may be a card played by Iran at the nuclear talks. There have been indications, though no actual smoking gun proof, that Iran, possibly through Hezballah from the tri-border area camps, may have ordered or even actually committed the murder of Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman. Sometimes it is almost like one needs a program with maps and a decoder ring just to get through any of the goings on originating just from the nations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). All of this and we did not even go into the Israeli-Arab (Palestinian) tangled imbroglio. Perhaps that can wait until tomorrow if events prove such necessary. Meanwhile, who’s on first and what’s the name of the second baseman, I give up; he’s our shortstop.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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