Beyond the Cusp

June 6, 2015

How Did This Mess Get Started

Filed under: Absolutism,Act of War,Administration,Afghanistan,Alexander the Great,Amalekites,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab World,Armed Services,Article Five,Ba'al,Babylon,Balanced Budget,Balkans,Bible,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Blue Water Navy,Britain,Cabinet,Cairo,Cairo Speech,Calaphate,Caliphate,China,Chinese Pressure,Civilization,Colonial Possession,Commander in Cheif,Conflict Avoidnce,Consequences,Coverup,Crimea,Czarist Russia,Czech Republic,Demolitions,Dictator,Ditherer in Chief,Economic Independence,Economy,Egypt,Egyptian Military,Euro,Euro Zone,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Financial Crisis,France,GDP,German Pressure,Golden Age of Islam,Government,Greece,Hate,History,Holy Roman Army,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iran,Iraq,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jobs,Keynesian Economics,Kurdistan,Kurds,Leftist Pressures,Libya,Military Council,Military Intervention,Mongol Hordes,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim Expansionism,Muslim World,NATO,Nazi,Non Binding Resolution,Obama,Old Testament,Ottoman Empire,Ottoman Empire,Panic Policies,Peace Process,Persians,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,President Vladimir Putin,Pressure by Egyptian People,Prime Minister,Regulations,Roman Empire,Russia,Russian Military,Russian Pressure,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secular Interests,Shared Currency,Shiite,Socialism,South China Sea,Soviet Union,State Department,Submission,Sunni,Sykes-Picot,Syria,Threat of War,Threat of War,Threat to Israel,Tribe,Two Millennia of Exile,Ukraine,Unemployment,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Upgraded Military Capabilities,US Air Force,US Army,US Marines,US Navy,Vlad the Invader,War,Warsaw Pact,Wealth,Weapons of Mass Destruction,World Opinion,World Pressures,World War I,World War II,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:05 AM
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Looking at the world around us one has to wonder how it all got into the horrible state of affairs. There had to be a lynchpin which started the unraveling, an actual starting point which we can trace everything back to and find the culprit who made that initial error, mistake in judgement. But in order to do that one has to decide which of the unravellings we should start with as there are so many to choose from. There is Putin, or as we like to call him, Vlad the Invader (our original reference recently stolen by a Fox News commentator the erudite pontificator), who has shaken up parts of Central Asia and Eurasia and is threatening Eastern Europe, or at least there are some former nations swallowed by the Iron Curtain of the Soviet Union; there is China who apart from building a blue water navy with which not only to challenge the United States Naval hegemony of the seas, a privilege formerly owned by the British, but are also building Islands in order to cement her claims to the vast South China Sea and thus control or divert much of the sea lane traffic from the Indian Ocean in and out of the Pacific Ocean; there is the financial problems in Europe threatening the stability of the European Union and the adoption of one currency with the Euro; and the final and greatest roiling and boiling cauldron, the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA). There may be other problems out there but these are the most prevalent and easily identifiable.

 

Let us start with the easiest of these, the financial meltdown in Europe. This problem was a situation just waiting to happen as soon as the most disparate economic nations decided to adopt the same currency unit without permitting a central planning committee to set their financial and economic planning and other such decisions in-line with each other. There was absolutely no way the less productive economies of such nations as Spain, Greece and Portugal had any hope of paralleling the productivity, GDP and economic output of a France, Britain or Germany. Additionally, adding the former Warsaw Pact nations probably sparked an even more divergent economic growth rate as nations such as Poland, the Czech Republic, and others plus the reuniting of Germany allowing the already dominant economy to also feast on the same rebuilding and economic recovery from the less efficient economic model of central planning to a market driven economy which granted these nations a greatly exaggerated GDP during their basically playing catch-up with the rest of Europe and becoming modernized economies. Thus the Euro was a pipe dream which probably had hoped that through the singular monetary unit, the Euro, would lead to a centralizing of economic planning being turned over to the European Union to plan these different economies as if they were a single unit. That was highly unlikely as that would have spelled the demise of the nation states and rendered them merely states in the continental nation of the European Union. What the European Union bureaucrats were seeking was a situation very similar to a former economic model using the Union name, the Soviet Union, replacing Moscow with Brussels and otherwise retaining that centralized, top down dictatorial form of economic planning. The hope of having all the European nations of the European Union surrender that much power to centralized governance was an impossible and thankfully unthinkable centralization of power. This became first indicated when Great Britain took a vote of the people on whether or not to adopt the Euro and the people were clearly heard to say not without losing to an invading army first, otherwise reported as a resounding no and Great Britain retained the Pound but with time would accept the Euro but it would change in buying power as it performed against the Pound. The British model of accepting the Euro while retaining their own currency would very likely have been a far better solution considering what we know now. By allowing each nation their own currency while having them also accept the Euro as legal tender the individual national economic planning would have reflected in their national currency which could slide against the Euro while still having an exchange rate at which the Euro would have an established buying power. This way Greece could remain Greece and Germany could march to their own economic tune and both nations would accept the Euro but their economy would be reflected in the exchange rate which would be set in Brussels. That would provide each nation with its economic freedoms while granting the central control freaks in Brussels their power in determining the value of the Euro to the individual currencies.

 

Next, let us take Vlad the Invader and resurgent Russia. Here the answer is simple; things are as they were inevitably meant to be. Russia has always had that appetite to chew on and swallow the smaller nations around her and some more so than others. Georgia and the Ukraine both fall into the more so than others category. Eventually there would have come along a strong and imperialist charismatic leader, instead we got a shirtless man experiencing a middle age crisis and owning a Napoléon complex likely due to the shared attribute of being of diminutive size also known as vertically challenged. Thus we have Vlad the Invader slowly but inexorably making advances which could have been potentially limited in the Ukraine to the Crimea but there would have been no stopping Putin’s appetite for conquest short of tempting his readiness for war by admitting the Ukraine and any other Warsaw Pact nation into NATO as well as the European Union. Of course this would have had the effect of making any of these moves by Russia on its neighboring countries, or as Vlad sees these nations being simply escaped provinces to be reclaimed, and thus pushing NATO or the weaker European Union into backing their mutual self-defense claims of, to quote an oldie but still a goodie, their all for one and one for all defensive agreements contained in both the European Union and especially NATO. So this can be traced back to Putin’s training as a KGB agent merging with his Napoléon complex plus his nationalistic and simplistic view that Russia was dealt a cruel and unfair blow with the, as he sees it, calamitous and most disastrous and lamentable event of the twentieth century and that he was the individual given the extraordinary and heaven ordained duty to rebuild Russia to her full and former glory. As far as others fearing Russia, especially in that neighborhood, Vlad the Invader has succeeded in spades.

 

China is another historical hegemonic power in the Pacific Ocean or at least the western shores of the Pacific Ocean and at times the Indian Ocean as well. One has to remember that China used to have regular wars with the other great power of Asia, India, back when simple people power was a determining factor and has only in recent history run astride of hard times. Historically China has either been the regional power controlling all she could survey or China was broken into separate mini-states which often warred with each other thus diminishing their powers. The only other situation was when China was overrun or controlled by outside influences and she was in a slow but constant state of regaining her independence and eventually sovereignty over her invaders. China has been and remains the slow and patient survivor and eventual victor which one need but wait to see her resurgence. China has a long history of simply refusing to be cowed or defeated, merely witnessing a temporary inconvenience. China has relied on the winds of change always knowing that no matter what the calamity, be it outside invaders or internal misrule, everything changes and change is the one criteria which can be relied upon to render all things dust. China realizes that there are time when you are riding the crest of the wave and time when the wave has crashed down upon you and whichever end of that wave you find yourself, you will eventually find yourself at the other extreme so enjoy the best of times and remember them as a goal in the worst of times. For China time has been her greatest ally and greatest enemy but she also knows that time is her greatest weapon. China will rise and fall just as the ocean tides, just on a much longer cycle.

 

Then there is the Extended Middle East which incorporates the traditional Middle East and North Africa and often called MENA. We like Extended Middle East better. This area has always been a cauldron of swirling fates. One need do no more than read the Bible, the Old Testament, to realize the great swings of fate for all who resided in this area. There have been great empires which rose from next to nothing to greatness only to be blown away like the desert sands. Some of these empires blew away so completely that one is unable to find their descendants as it is as if they were snatched from the Earth itself. Probably the strangest of stories is the people of the Bible who only recently returned to their historic, ancient lands, Israel. However, this return has become the central story and burdened with the weight of responsibility for all the unrest anywhere on the globe and particularly throughout the Extended Middle East. Despite there being no actual or traceable root to the great turmoil destroying and potentially redrawing the map of the Extended Middle East to Israel, that has not prevented many from historians to political pundits to media reporters and even to governments and their agencies such as the United States Department of State from laying all of the blame at Israel’s doorstep.

 

The turmoil in the central Middle East is nothing new as it is the control point for all trade historically between three massive and divergent continents; Africa, Europe and Asia. This was the locations of a city-state which had no viable crop or natural resource and was hidden away behind a narrow splitting in a rock face and the city was entirely built into another rock face which had an outer clearing protected by tall rock walls and survived purely on trade and taking a percentage of all transactions. The city was Petra which finally and literally fell out of use after an earthquake made its further use untenable. But Petra was an indication on exactly how important the areas of the Middle East were for trade between the three continents. Tracing history in this area you find such names as Egypt, Hittite, Assyrian, Babylonian, Philistines, Minoans, Canaanites who worshipped such gods as Moloch and Baal, Persians and entering the more modern age, the Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, Ottomans and finally the French and British. Where to trace back the turmoil and near constant warfare of the Middle East, perhaps to Cain and Abel and the earliest recorded use of a rock as a tool of war. That might be a stretch but the earliest conflict likely predates writing by a sufficient amount of time that it also ceased being a part of the oral history and never got recorded just as the actual traceable location of Atlantis was never given (Pillars of Hercules and out in the great waters, like that helps).

 

But the recent difficulties and intermitted warfare both between nations and internal to nations is traceable to a particular intentional act meant to create just such internal strife and potentially these external wars in order to prevent the area from ever again uniting into the one promise the French and British had given to particular Arab tribal, nations and even clan leaders to persuade them into assisting them in their efforts against the Ottoman Empire during World War I, the reestablishment of the Caliphate, meaning the areas of the Ottoman Empire intact as a singular entity, and leaving these leaders as the ruling council and the ones who would choose the new Caliph. Instead, this promise was not only shattered but the lines drawn after World War I in both the Middle East and rest of the Ottoman Empire as well as the Austria Hungarian Empire in order to prevent there ever being a reunification thus preventing these powers from becoming preeminent and capable of starting the next conflagration. The division of the Austro-Hungarian Empire mostly achieved its purpose and the next war where it did arise out of Germany which was generally a previous part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and had only in the late 1800s gained its unified formation independent of outside control but not necessarily free of their influences thus leading to the rise of Adolph Hitler and the Nazi efforts and Word War II. But in the Middle East we had the Sykes–Picot Agreement which made completely arbitrary borders without, or possibly intentionally ignoring, tribal lines and clans or any of the natural political alignments often splitting lands as in the case of the Kurds; who also were promised their own nation as were the Jews in separate agreements but instead the Kurdish lands were divided and became parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran; making each nation internally unstable. Iraq is probably the most well-known of these divisions which in the case of Iraq divided the lands such that the Shiites were predominant in the south, the Sunni predominant in the center and the Kurds predominant in the north. This forced each of these imaginary nations to eventually find that the only way to restore and keep the peace was the rise of a militant strongman willing to impose peace by force of arms such as was the case under Saddam Hussein. Say whatever you like about Saddam Hussein such as he was a butcher, a murderer and a hard tyrant with an iron fist, he kept Iraq from devolving into internecine warfare such as we are witnessing today.

 

The rest of the turmoil which we are suffering through today may have had a recent triggering event, namely the Cairo speech by United States President Barack Obama and his foreign policy which was centered around his campaign promise to end the wars and bring the troops home. Unfortunately for the majority of the people turned victims in the Extended Middle East, President Obama pulled all of the United States military personnel from both Afghanistan and Iraq prematurely as neither nation had developed the experience of the new governance nor the military ability to resist disorder while, especially in Iraq, the suppressed majority had some real and serious issues and grudges to settle with the minority who had ruled the nation through oppressions and they were out to get that revenge which tore the nation apart making it ripe for a force such as ISIS to tear into its midsection and even gain some support from the people there. The Sykes–Picot Agreement was designed to make the Middle East in particular and the Extender Middle East by division of who controlled what area which became independent nations with the arbitrary borders established by their respective colonizers, left the entirety of these areas as a tinder box simply waiting for that spark and it was likely the Cairo Speech and the enthusiastic attempt after the Tunisian vegetable cart vendor’s self-immolation and subsequent uprising in Tunisia being used as the trigger for President Obama’s attempt to redraw the Middle East around granting the Muslim Brotherhood preeminence over the region sharing control with Iran as the hegemon in the east and the Muslim Brotherhood in the west. Even had this plan succeeded it would have only set up a different state of conflict but this time with two very strong entities making for an even potentially greater struggle. The war right now is contained for the most part to the Greater Syrian conflict which includes ISIS and Iraq and the Iranian intervention, and the Egyptian struggle internally for the most part with the Egyptian military wresting control from the Muslim Brotherhood. The trouble in Libya is tribal and most likely to remain in Libya unless ISIS gets a firm and significant foothold and then there will be trouble as ISIS then moves to take all of Libya and begins their spread into Tunisia, Egypt and Algeria, but especially Egypt. History will likely eventually lay the blame for the current explosion of unrest and open warfare in the Extended Middle East to the United States meddling and doing so by proxy removing their personnel, especially military, from the Extended Middle East and stirring the pot so to speak and hoping for the best. They failed, or should we simply say the truth, President Obama really had no idea what he was attempting and misunderstood the players and nearly everything in the Middle East and almost every other foreign affairs which he has chosen action or inaction. Incompetence beyond measure being wielded by a self-indulgent, uninformed, narcissist with delusions of competence and wisdom that produces a boondoggle that only complete ineptitude, ignorance and delusions of grandeur could produce. I am sure there are other adjectives which would apply but for the sake of brevity shall we coin a new phrase and call such complete ineffectiveness which produces great conflagrations as doing an Obamy.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 29, 2015

Syrian War Winner and Losers

Filed under: Act of War,Air Fields,Allah,Amalekites,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab Spring,Arab Winter,Arab World,Arabist,Army Chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi,Bab-el-Mandeb,Babylon,Beheading,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Calaphate,Caliphate,Civil War,Civilization,Clan,Conflict Avoidnce,Coptic Christians,Dhimmi,Dictator,Egypt,Egyptian Military,Europe,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Fatwa,Foreign Funding,Government,Hate,Hezballah,History,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,IRGC,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jihad,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Libya,Middle East,Military Council,Ministers,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Nationalist,Nationalist Pressures,Nebuchadnezzar II,Nuclear Option,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,P5+1,Pakistan,Parliament,Persians,Politicized Findings,Politics,Power,President Morsi,President Sisi,Pressure by Egyptian People,Rebel Forces,Religion,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Saudi Military,Shiite,Sinai Peninsula,Soldiers,Sunni,Syrian Military,Taqiyya,Theocracy,Threat of War,Threat of War,Tribe,Turkish Military,Twelvers,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,War,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,World Without Zionism or America,Yemen,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:26 AM
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The Syrian war is about to finally enter its terminal stage. This is not something to be celebrated as there is only one winner and a ton of losers. Without any doubt the largest losers are the Syrian people who now have no country. Syria will be a nation in ruin for as far as the mind can see. Once the Assad government final is completely destroyed and the Alawites have paid the price for the Assad families’ decades of ruthless leadership where millions died just because the Assad family feared they might turn against their governing, then the Syrian fighting will simply be every factions, tribe and even clan contesting land until eternity. The war will rage on ravaging what is already a nation in ruin even further down the scale of civil rule. It is highly likely that Syria will never emerge from the ashes and the Syrian people will inherit a nation at war with itself with no relief from the horrors similarly to what is still ravaging Libya long after their dictator paid the price for his savagery. Bashir al-Assad will probably be more fortunate as he will probably take refuge in Iran, Russia or somewhere in Europe where he and his family will live quietly and under an assumed identity spending what is likely to be billions of Euros they have stashed in numbered Swiss accounts. Some might see this as their having come out as winning but they will also be living that life or relative luxury constantly looking over their shoulder checking for an inevitable assassination of Bashir al-Assad if not a slaughter of his entire family some night when something went bump in the night and their house was transformed into their tomb.

 

There will be numerous leaders of different factions of the groups fighting against Assad who will claim to have won and may even spend a few hours in celebration of the final end of Assad family rule before the next stage of the fighting begins to determine who will be the final winner. Unfortunately for the people of the Arab and soon greater Muslim worlds, when the entirety becomes a contest to determine who gets to form the next Caliphate then everyone loses as the fighting envelops a larger and larger area with numerous factions fighting against each other and eventually factions melding to be stronger and fighting to be the final victor as there can be only one Caliph and soon there may be countless contesters for that throne. This fighting promises to eventually cut the Muslim world into large factions with regular breaking down between allies just making the fighting even more destructive. The initial fighting will continue across Syria, Libya and Iraq for the foreseeable future with a few contesters being the forces to watch. The most obvious element is ISIS which claims to have their tentacles reaching across the different areas where fighting is active, even in Yemen. The news has reported of ISIS factions beheading some twenty Egyptian Coptic Christians which garnered them some attention from Egypt which carried out a series of airstrikes. This provides the simple truth of what it will take for ISIS to actually be capable of successfully claiming the leadership and establishing the next Caliphate, air-power. So far ISIS has not given even a tentative sign that they have any air capabilities. There was mention after ISIS captured an airbase in Syria of their intending to train pilots for the establishing of an ISIS air force. They managed to get a few jets into the sky which were immediately shot down by actual fighters from the Syrian Air Force. The next step was the destruction of every aircraft on the ground by two or three days of airstrikes rendering the airfield useless and destroying every aircraft they could target. So much for an ISIS air force.

 

ISIS will be a terrorist organization, though a powerful one for now, until they somehow manage to garner air-power in the form of aircraft and fully trained pilots to fly them. There will be only one way for this to occur, and that would be for a number of flight squadrons to take to the air and land on an airstrip already within ISIS controlled area bringing as much weaponry for their aircraft as they are able to carry. If such defections are well planned before their execution these pilots and some ground crews for servicing their aircraft, as such will be vital, will also have some cargo aircraft loaded with munitions, spare parts and everything necessary to sustain an active air force no matter how small. Obviously this would require either an entire nation’s air crews or a number of squadrons following suit in rapid succession thus forming not only the beginning core of an air force but instead a complete and functioning air force capable of defending their airfields as well as providing ground support and other missions. Anything less and ISIS will remain a terrorist group even if a powerful terrorist entity, but not yet the nation or even contender for the title of Caliphate. So, who are the real qualifiers for the title of leaders of the Caliphate?

 

Unfortunately ISIS is still the number one contender as they have the appearance as the strong horse with the plans and the fire to get the Caliphate started and lead the fighting forces to eventual victory and the unification of the entirety of the Ummah (Arabic: أمة‎‎). As pointed out, if ISIS is to eventually prove the leadership of the new Caliphate they will require a real air force which has thus far eluded them. That leads us to the more obvious candidates but first let’s list some of the non-state actors who will eventually play a role in the determining the next Caliphate. The first one to come to mind is the father of so many of the Arab and Islamist terrorist and non-state actors across the expanse of the Muslim world, the Muslim Brotherhood. Another entity with the structures in place for making a claim is al-Qaeda. A third would have to be the Taliban though their reach is limited; they do have well trained fighters who are highly motivated. Despite the Muslim Brotherhood, Taliban and al-Qaeda having extensive ties and supporters, they have the same problems as does ISIS, no air power. For this reason, none of these groups have much of a chance of defeating an actual state whose military is well formed and capable of fighting a modern war against what would have to be viewed as a terrorist entity in the eyes of the national leadership and armed forces. The main duty beyond holding the line against the terror entity would be keeping control through the ranks, especially the air force, to prevent defections to the other side, something which occurred with some of the Sunni military and security forces in Iraq and Syria. There were even a few pilots who defected over to ISIS but not in sufficient numbers to even form a single squadron of fighter air corps.

 

There are currently four nations which might be considered capable of eventually forming the next Caliphate if such is what is fated. These are in no particular order, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt. A fifth possible nation would have to be Pakistan if for no other reason than their being a nuclear armed nation. The nations who currently are allied in the fight against the Iranian proxy Houthis fighting for control of Yemen and most importantly, the Bab-el-Mandeb narrows at the southern end of the Red Sea and controlling access from the Red Sea into the Gulf of Aden and onto the Arabian Sea and beyond, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. This is a perfect alliance as Saudi Arabia has the oil wealth while Egypt has a strong, well-armed and well-trained military which has proven their unity and discipline over the trying period of two changes in governance over the past three years which the military retained its ranks and officer corps and structure throughout. The greatest threat to the Saudi-Egyptian alliance is obviously Iran which could become favored to gain the upper hand in this contest once they attain their own production of nuclear weapons, a structure that is greatly formed already and presumably not producing such weapons due to their negotiating with the P5+1 and possibly fearing actions by the United States should they actually proceed and build a nuclear weapons stockpile. This likely means that Iran is doing exactly that, as they have no respect, let alone fear, of any threat the United States might currently make. Once it becomes obvious that Iran has produced nuclear weapons, it is expected and been confirmed unofficially that Saudi Arabia will be exercising their agreement to purchase, most likely at wholesale, a dozen, or a few dozen, nuclear devices and the delivery system to go with them in the case they are warheads rather than bombs. This would allow for the Saudis to develop, which means build the facilities, their own nuclear program. The Saudi Arabian scientists and necessary technicians are already trained and ready to take up the challenge of producing nuclear weapons as they have received such plans from Pakistan in exchange for their subsidizing the Pakistani drive to produce their own nuclear weapons in response to India having done so. The Saudi access to nuclear weapons production will serve to perpetuate into perpetuity the alliance between Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

 

With the establishment of an alliance between Saudi Arabia and Egypt one side and Iran and whatever remnants of Iraq, Syria and probably Lebanon as ISIS and the other rebel groups who will have brought down Bashir al-Assad will still have numerous scores to settle with Hezballah which any international borders will not be capable of standing in the way preventing this vengeance from being extracted. The above alliance leaves such powers as Turkey and Pakistan on the outside in the cold, so to speak. Pakistan is most likely to remain on the outside simply observing as a mostly disinterested spectator who if forced to choose would most likely ally with the Saudis and company as they have had a mutually advantageous relationship over the decades, despite Pakistan receiving much of their oil from Iran, it is likely that the Saudis could take care of any need in that area. That leaves Turkey to figure on which direction they are most likely to take. The direction Turkey would take depends on who is in power. Currently their leader for as long as most can remember has been Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Should Erdogan remain in power, which way he would choose would be in question. President Erdogan has over the years shown to side with the Iranians, Saudis and even Egypt alternately. Currently there is a significant rift between Turkey and Egypt over the ouster of President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood governance and replacing it with the chosen General of the Army President Sisi. The Turkish government, which is to say Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has held fast demanding that President Sisi step down as President and place Morsi back on his Presidential pedestal along with the entirety of the Muslim Brotherhood government the last elections replaced. As doing so would most definitely lead to the loss of the lives of most of the upper echelons of the Egyptian military, this scenario is highly unlikely. If sentences are to be carried out swiftly there may no longer be a former President Morsi to return to the position as he and hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood leaders have been sentenced to death recently by the Egyptian courts. Meanwhile, Erdogan has alternately shown affinity for Iran though currently has remained surprisingly neutral and silent reserving his vitriol for Israel, always the default position one can take to insulate themselves from outside harms. Determining which direction Turkey might take under Erdogan is a guessing game and probably will remain that way until one side or the other proves the victor and then Erdogan would ingratiate himself to the victor. If he were to choose, he appears to favor Iran possibly due to their presence in Syria and thus along his southern border. Without Erdogan Turkey would naturally side with Saudi Arabia and Egypt as they would no longer be seen as supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.

 

The question as to which side would prove victorious between a Saudi Arabian led coalition or Iran is a tougher call. It might all depend on which side was willing to use their ultimate weapon with sufficient deployment so as to end the ability of the other side to resist. Where I have some doubts that the Saudis would be the first to use nuclear weapons in the Middle East, I have no doubts that such would be the primary first strike or response to hostilities in order to simply end any contest and declare their victory. Should such an event ever be presented to the world, their answer should be carefully decided and decisively delivered. Should Iran use nuclear weapons against her adversaries on the Middle East and willingly bring such devastation to fellow Muslims, even if they were predominantly Sunni and not Shiite, then the rest of the world had best believe they would receive nothing less. Should Iran launch such a barrage, it would be surprising if they did not at the same time launch attacks by multiple means on Europe and the United States as well as any other nation they might perceive to be capable of mounting a credible resistance to their eventual world-wide victory. But even Iran does not appear to be quite that ruthless or willing to wreak such devastation on such a scale.

 

Should they prove to be that hardhearted and coldblooded as to end civilization as we know it, then it would prove a suspicion I had way back when a cursory review of the predictions of Nostradamus was in vogue and fascinated one youth after viewing a special on television where they gave lengthy coverage to his future vision of the world falling to a man from the Middle East wearing a blue turban. Despite every publication and prediction claiming that this meant Iraq I held stubbornly to my feelings that it signified Iran, and I do mean stubbornly. Often I was dismissed as a lost cause incapable of listening to reason but I had my faith that Persia would rise again and not Babylonia. Historically the Babylonians surrendered to the Persians almost joyously as their ruler had lost his mind after burning three Israelites (Jews) for not bowing before him and they somehow proved to be fireproof, well, at least for that moment as they cried out to G0d and were saved from a fiery death. This proved a bit much for the mind of King Nebuchadnezzar II who lost his mind unable to believe or understand that such a miracle was possible and that he was not the most powerful even in his own kingdom, his capital city even.

 

As is often the case, the eventual end to this will entail a fair degree of insanity, a touch of the impossible, room for a number of miracles, even more so should Israel somehow become involved. Perhaps this might be the place to end with a final word on the probable path Hezballah may be about to tread. Once the remaining forces, the few, the perplexed, the Syrian remnants; then Hezballah will find themselves pretty much alone as the IRGC forces will stake out a radius around Damascus and wherever else they determine is vital to Iran such as the port where the Russian fleet is docked, Latakia, and perhaps a few places in Lebanon as well. Should Iranian plans not include providing safety for the last remnants of the Syrian military, they certainly will not be protecting Hezballah. The Iranians may well understand that should they not side with the remnants of the defenders of Assad that their retaining the choice areas they believe essential to their requirements will be more readily accepted and produce minimal resistance. That leaves Hezballah pretty much out in the cold and in need of some reinforcement to their devotion to Allah and commitment to the perpetual cause, the eradication of the Zionist entity, Israel. The end result will be the same and Hezballah should prove to be better served for survival by fighting Israel than fighting ISIS. It needs to be remembered that Hezballah, just like ISIS, has no air force. This deficiency will prove fatal for them in either battle, against Israel it is obvious, they will have little recourse against Israeli air power, and against ISIS it places them on an even playing field with ISIS currently being the more motivated and Hezballah having superior training and better knowledge of the terrain as well as having heavily fortified bunker and tunnel system in southern Lebanon, their home turf. Either path will probably be the final battles Hezballah will ever engage in. Even should they start a war with Israel, that does not necessarily rule out a final settling of grievances with ISIS, it would just mean that final reckoning coming after Israel had smashed their bunkers and tunnels and decimated their rocket and other heavy weaponry. Anyway one slices it, there is a better than average probability that we will have seen the last of Hezballah by Summer’s end. That may be the cherry atop the ice cream Sunday and a gift to the civilized world out of the ashes of Syria.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 19, 2015

Signs of the Coming Pivotal Showdowns

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The Middle East has never seen the conflux of terminal situations as it is being currently forced to witness. Needless to point out that all of them have an Israeli contingency or are solely placing its sights squarely on Israel. The most obvious is the Iranian nuclear threat and the lacking of a spine amongst the Western Powers leaving once again the solution squarely with Israel, which begs the question as to what will the world, particularly the Western Powers, do if the problem is shown to be beyond Israeli conventional capabilities thus leaving the choice between Western Power intervention, a nuclear armed Iran spreading its hegemonic desires upon the Middle East, Northern Africa and all of Europe or, potentially the worst possible solution, a tactical nuclear strike to decapitate the Iranian leadership by any of the nations potentially threatened by a nuclear Iran. The obvious best scenario would be for the Western Powers, particularly the United States or the European Union acting as a single power including its complete membership acting as one to make known to Iran that either they terminate their nuclear weapons dreams, dismantle their nuclear sites allowing for inspections of every step along the way to assure compliance or face even more all-inclusive sanctions than Iran has faced to this point. Unfortunately, the United States is currently led by a President who sees empowering Iran and making them the new main ally of the United States with Iran in the superior position and the United States engaged as the supportive partner providing cover through negotiations to permit nuclear weapons capability of deliverable warheads, not just a single warhead but potentially hundreds of deliverable nuclear warheads spanning the complete range from thermonuclear city-busting devices to EMP yields capable of striking down the electrical grids of the continental United States and Canada or the entirety of Europe or the Russian grid including surrounding satellite nations to tactical weapons deployable in support of ground-forces engaging any foe’s opposing armies. This would be the result of the current Framework should the Farsi translation as claimed by the Iranian nuclear negotiating hierarchy which has been backed fully by the leadership and finally given the stamp of authenticity by the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei (in Farsi: حسینی خامنه‌ای سید علی) be proven valid and still acceptable.

 

Thus far, there has been total silence given as a response by the White House which implies that they know full well that the Framework they allowed the Iranians to mold due to the United States team’s compliance and their taking the position of explaining the Iranian demands being planted as the Framework was the better choice than implementing a military response as no sane individual desires to start a war. The reasoning by President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and the entirety of the United States negotiators is flawless as long as the sole alternative to the present situation was to start a war, a completely specious and disingenuous choice which is fully noted by the White House. President Obama is presenting a dishonestly fallacious choice and he knows so. This was the given alternative when President Obama responded to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu speech to a Joint Session of Congress where the underlying theme of his speech was that war was not the sole and obvious alternative to this bad deal, a better deal brought forth through the reapplication of the relaxed sanctions and potentially the imposition of even stricter and more encompassing sanctions but never war. President Obama along with White House Spokesperson Josh Earnest and supporting members of the White House public interface as well as the myriad of spokespeople from the State Department such as but not limited to Jen Psaki, Victoria Nuland and Marie Harf have all adopted the proven irrational choice as between whatever deal eventually is hammered out or war. The first falsehood is it is well known that President Obama will not only refuse to choose the military option; he will not even move it on the table to give the appearance of having been considered. With the United States actually taking the other side, evidence provided by Amir Hossein Mottaghi, known to have managed media, Internet and other electronic dealings for Rouhani during his 2013 Presidential election campaign, sought asylum and in interviews related how the Iranian media at the Lausanne negotiations were merely tools used to control the information fed to the Iranian people. But Amir Hossein Mottaghi’s biggest coup was his reporting that, “The US negotiating team are mainly there to speak on Iran’s behalf with other members of the P5+1 countries and convince them of a deal.”

 

Apparently the most feasible, productive and potentially desirable outcome has to be a better deal than what has been made as evidenced by the Iranians with their apparent belief that the Framework Agreement stipulates allowing them to continue with their nuclear program unhindered by the coming deal. The Iranians fully expect to dictate the terms for the final agreement and President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry will take that as the direction for the P5+1 to go. This has to be prevented and the fastest and most probable path to successfully doing so would be attained simply by the European Union taking the lead dismissing the United States as having become useless. The Europeans first move after dismissing the United States leadership would be to threaten to reapply the strongest sanctions so as to get the full attention of the Iranian leadership. Perhaps with a new threat of actually having an opposing side would bring the Iranians back to the negotiating table this time duly shamed thus ready to actually negotiate and realize that they will not be permitted to continue having everything their way. Once the European Union had coordinated with the United Nations and brought them on board with the Europeans’ rejection of the leadership role played by the United States, the European Union would necessarily need to carry negotiations forward at a speed far faster than the United States which would be potentially possible simply by using the original draft of a Framework with the major points which the United States has dropped until the Framework Agreement had become meaningless. The European Union taking such an initiative might just jumpstart the United States role as a senior or lead negotiator. Should the United States attempt to reestablish their predominance within the workings of the negotiations, the European Union should refuse such a move further reestablishing their reassuming the lead role. One might even desire going so far as to relieve the United States of having an overriding veto over any of the provisions as their actions have proven their lack of serious desire to even minimally restrict the Iranian nuclear program. Anything short of rejecting the current Framework and returning to the basic demands from before the United States eventually stripped them of any relevance would make all efforts futile. There is still the possibility of having a finished and signed better deal by the end of June providing that the European Union is willing to take a principled stance or if they are going to permit this freak-show being staged by the United States Iran will be a nuclear armed nation by Christmas. Serious reapplication of the full range of sanctions would get the full attention of the European insistence that Iran become serious or face really serious sanctions going forward for as long as it takes. These were the sanctions which had actually brought the Iranians to the negotiating table and were also the sanctions which President Obama just could not wait to relax that he held private talks with the Iranians and relaxed the sanctions without receiving even a single concession. That has become the latest way that negotiations have operated with the rest of the P5+1 joining sessions which are held so that the United States can dictate the latest surrender of points to the Iranians and present them as great victories though anybody with 20/20 vision and half a brain can see they are exactly the opposite as each rendition is weaker than the previous and the whole while the United States has pulled hard for weakening the sanctions. But unfortunately the European Union has been so weakened that their once proud nations which traveled the globe with their strong forces of trade protected by navies and marines who were the envy of the world are no more and their dependence on the protections of other nations has left them incapable of taking such a lead role.

 

But there has been one place where the Europeans have found their abilities to act with resolute strength, Israel. The European Union and individual governments have already primed the engines of industry to rush into Iran as soon as sanctions are lifted, if they even wait that long after witnessing the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system recently reactivated violating both the Iranian sanctions still in place and the sanctions against their engaging in such activities due to their offenses in the Ukraine. The strongest words about the Russian jumping the gun did emanate from the White House where President Obama stated his surprise that the Russians held off this long considering the weakness displayed by the United States and other nations involved in the negotiations with Iran. But these same weaklings who are unable to even look the Iranian leadership in the eye will glare at Israel demanding her surrender of all lands which International Law assigns as legally Israeli lands. The Europeans do not care and for as long as the United States shows no favor to their longtime loyal friend, the Europeans will continue displaying their hatred for Israel with some expressing regrets over voting for the Jewish State both in 1920 after the initial findings during the San Remo Conference and again in November of 1947 which may have actually had much to do with the revelations of the Holocaust and the extent the hatreds were permitted by the allies as well as the axis powers. But now the many nations, especially the so proper and perfect in their attire and manner of speech always sticking to the approved progressive reasons and smugly purporting such superiority while they quiver before the Muslim threats they have no difficulty demonizing and walking forward with the destruction of Israel, the Jewish State, for they are fully aware that Israel will not strike them for their spiteful hatred while the Muslims might smite them even if they demur perfectly into their roles as Dhimmi bowing before their Islamic masters. The world will soon face a choice, a great choice which will be their final choice, Israel or Islam, with which will each of us stand? The choice in this instance is not merely for nations but for individuals to choose. Needless to point out that should an individual living in any nations that stands to ally with Israel and you choose to ally with Islam, you will have your choice protected, but if you choose Israel and your nation chooses Islam then you had best move to a nation which will accept your choice for the nations that choose Islam will be unable to couch an individual who desired any other choice. The clouds have been on the horizon for as long as I can remember, and I can remember back to President Ike and the campaign buttons screaming, “I Like Ike!” Those were good days in so many ways and also had their share of evil, an evil which sought to minimize the presence of Blacks in many public places as well as private. Lesser remembered were the places both public but mostly private where a Jew was unwelcome. The sixties and seventies came and went and much of the segregations had been eliminated yet there were still those private clubs closed to Black and Jew alike. Eventually these hatreds were supposedly conquered but we all know those few Neanderthals who refuse to bury their hatreds. In the United States the religion which has had the most hateful crimes perpetrated against them from 1900 to 2000 was far and away Jews. Since 2001 and the World Trade Center disaster the popular opinion has been that Islam became the religion which suffered the most hate crimes but that perception is not backed up by the statistics as the Jews remain the religion with the highest number of hate crimes perpetrated against them.

 

The real sadness is the singling out of the Jews over the centuries has now been applied to the national home for the Jews. This is beyond any moral fathoming and the world has but two societies which support the nation of Israel, one obvious and the other far less so. The largest support for Israel comes from the Evangelical Christians who easily surpass the Jews in their support. As difficult as it may be to believe, the Evangelical Christians support Israel in a higher percentage than does the Jewish community in the United States and this is even after discounting those religious Chassidim communities who do not accept Israel due to religious interpretations of Torah believing that Israel is to be established by the Messiah and not before. Still the Jewish communities within the United States take second place behind the Evangelical Christians in their support for Israel. Why, you might ask, would the Jews not be at one-hundred-percent supporting of Israel? The Jews who least support Israel are the least observant of strict Jewish traditions and commandments. These are Jews who have redefined their Jewish religious observance to match the progressive agendas. They place acceptance of all individuals above Jewish laws about marriage by their not only accepting same sex marriages but condone performing such ceremonies with their Rabbi officiating in their Sanctuaries. They replaced the idea of perfecting the world through doing all possible to perfect oneself and by such example change the world with the ideal that for every problem there must be a government program to address and form a solution, which is normally to just throw money at the problem. They have replaced G0d with government and thus are comfortable with an all-powerful government as government is the source of all goodness. They sold their soul to the progressive cause, have also accepted the progressive leftist beliefs that Israel is an Apartheid state which persecutes the Palestinians and is illegitimate, and are most likely to condemn Israel of any crime anyone brings against Israel. As a Zionist, very likely from birth, I have always had difficulty interacting with the Progressive, leftist, whites are the source of all evil, Israel has no right to exist, whacko, crazy, lunatic-leftist, earth-first, Ghia worshipping, statist Jews by birth only. Whenever I meet one when traveling even within Israel I carefully refuse to speak about even the weather as that inevitable is taken straight to what in the current weather will bring the end of all life on the planet we are all doomed to some anthropomorphic apocalyptic cataclysm. Did I mention also insane and you do not want to know how I really feel.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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