Our Economic World is Shakier Than We’ve Been Told

 

The mainstream media, especially the European Media, are all the news all the time covering the Greek economic meltdown. Some of the more honest media has also included the crises that could be soon to topple as if dominoes all in a row of which Greece is but the first domino to be tripped to fall and they have shown how Spain and Portugal would be precariously hanging and soon toppled partly as a result of Greece’s defaulting though it might be likely they would have fallen eventually all on their own. These would trigger a crisis in Ireland and Italy as to which would be the fourth victim and which would follow as the fifth victim signaling the end of the most endangered Eurozone nations too close to default to be comforting. The real horrific effect of these five weaker economies finally tripping the default cable and snagging the economic webbing, which has held the European Union and the Euro together since 1999, doing irreparable damage to the delicate webbing, more fragile than the most slightly laced spider’s web, tearing enormous holes in its intricate weaves slashing at the most vital threads and upsetting the ever so precarious balance that underlies its supporting structures threatening to unbalance and collapse even the previously though stable economies of France, Poland and many of the other east European economies possibly pushing them right to the cliff-face and potentially tipping them beyond the cusp and into default thus lacerating the last remnants of the Eurozone and possibly taking with them Germany and the ECB (European Central Bank) causing unimaginable damage to the financial structure of Europe and beyond, the ripple effect causing a second deep recession well more serious and taking longer to tank-out and hit bottom and then begin a long sluggish scent clawing for every single Red Cent and Dollar and Euro after having taken its toll on Asia and beyond. But the Euro, Greece, and the rest of the European Union and the Eurozone is but one whirlpool looking to sink every last economic boat.

 

The Euro is what we have been led to believe is the only threat. Where previously economic ships only had to worry about rising and falling tides, now they are adrift and facing not just one whirlpool representing the Euro dying, but now there is a second even more massive whirlpool coming from deep within Asia. China has hit the road’s end and is attempting to push its enormous mountain of debt using a garden trowel while piling on fresh debt using Caterpillar 990K series front end loader shoveling an additional $19.3 billion in an effort to end their three week slide totaling $3.2 trillion downturn in the past three weeks alone. These losses were the result of a Chinese Stock Market where as many as two-thirds of the stocks were frozen in a further attempt to stem the torrents of dollars flowing from their stock market and their economy like the icy waters which flooded the lower decks of the Titanic as she slowly but inexorably fell beneath the waves, something somewhat prophetic for the Chinese markets and economy. There is actually a comparison between the situation in Greece and the downturn in China as one must remember that Greece is as socialist as a nation can be without being either fascist or Communist and Greece has retained their spirit of a democratic Parliamentary system despite it all but China has taken socialism that one final step to communism, the addition of mostly state owned corporations and central planning of the economic engines and manufacturing. Chinese leaders had been attempting to liberalize their economic sectors, though not all of them, selling a number of previously State run businesses and even permitted competition between companies in the same market hoping this would charge their economy further and it had been working but even free-market economic liberalization was unable to stave off this meltdown. The problem obviously is what will this mean for the liberalization of the Chinese economy as the leadership are still Communists who serve the Party and depend on the Party, may decide that much of their financial woes are the result of these new policies and curtail or even reverse some or all of the liberalized companies, markets and take a giant leap backwards to increased government control over every iota of the economy and the manufacturing and sales etc.

 

United States Treasury Secretary Jack Lew commented Wednesday on the current crisis in China stating at the Brookings Institution, that the economies of the United States and China are “still pretty much separated.” In further testimony Secretary Lew queried, “I think the concern … it is a real one … is what does it mean about long term growth in China?” Further in his speech he pointed to the main potential impacts which could emerge as a result to the Chinese Stock Market bleeding financially leaving the leadership seeing ‘Red’ in more ways than one. The leading question is to figure out as soon as possible what the reaction of the leaders of the Communist Party is and whether they may decide that the problem dictates such as appointing new leadership, freezing prices, injecting even more dollars into the markets through the banks and state owned businesses or closing the banks and Stock Market for a week or two cool down and reset to normalcy again; the choices and potential marrying of any two or three makes predictions near to impossible. The one thing which can be computed and predicted as long as the numbers being released and any steps taken are done so in plain view then the impact of the Stock Market freefall on the Chinese economy’s core condition and whether it appears that it will have much elasticity and dynamics when the end is finally reached and the rollercoaster slides on in to the station signaling the end of the ride, and what a ride it was with vigorous growth only to drop who knows how large a percentage of that growth in this correction, and what a correction. Secretary Lew’s closing thoughts are worthy of being repeated as he emphasized, “The question isn’t their commitment to the goal; the question is the pace at which they implemented it, and do they do it fast enough for it to be effective. I hope this is not something that slows down the pace of reform. If the reaction is to put the brakes on reforms, that will slow that process.”

 

With China making a long overdue correction which will be far more severe than it should or could have been if the leadership was not so intent on what numbers they released to the world and on making their predicted economic increase and meet all targets set within the government as to fail was unthinkable and would have been a terrible loss of face thus undermining faith in the economy. This has caused the Chinese to follow the example first used by President George W. Bush and turbocharged by President Barack Hussein Obama which was in the old school simply called a ‘stimulus package’ but is now known by a more enigmatic phrase of ‘Quantitative Easing,’ either of which hides the actual result and method being implemented as who would stand for the government announcing they were devaluing the money supply and taxing every single American by a minimum percentage directly proportional to the percentage increase the total added funding was doled out in stacks of hundred dollar bills, literally thousands of such stacks in the United States and unknown amounts though what is known is the Chinese leadership pumped close to twice the percentage of GDP as did the United States. Just as the United States took their hit starting back in late 2008 and continuing through 2011 and briefly relieved with another round of ‘Quantitative Easing,’ this was like the third pitcher of beer at a table trying to drink their way sober. The economic burst from that mid and late 2011 ‘Quantitative Easing’ gave the economy a burst of hope which appeared to continue due to lowered interest rates and the paring down and mostly neutering of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act gave the economy the needed push for President Obama’s reelection as he could run his campaign claiming to have turned the economy around and that great times lie ahead. Well, as far as that goes I’ll point to Greece and China and point out that the United States has followed similar patterns of fueling the economy and especially the Stock Market with borrowed monies and when loans were unavailable the Federal Reserve would electronically buy Treasury Bonds with funds they imagined into existence as a few strokes on a Federal Reserve keyboard and one produces and completed sale with funny money in that the receipt for the Treasury Bonds was used to balance the books as it represented the electronically derived cash used. This is a very convenient way to purchase items this way when you are the government or a very clever fraudster as just try using the sales slip from one register, say men’s clothing from a department store as cash at the Jewelry Counter and see how far that takes you. The catch, and there is always a catch, to ‘Quantitative Easing’ is that eventually you either have to pay back the money that was invented which can only be done some combination of these three methods, first is retire actual money from circulation which can also be done electronically by retiring any electronic payment made on credit cards, second is to remove the funds through higher taxes taking the money directly from the supply, and lastly one could raise the interest rates and siphon off a percentage of each loan to pay the Piper so to speak. The problem is that each of these methods actually hurt the consumer the most; it is the public that pays the price for the economic and financial misdeeds and ill-advised policies.

 

There are but a few redeeming features out of all of this and one serious and potentially unavoidable problem, and it is a big one. So, we will leave the bad news for last and the good news which will cause doom’s day to come and come quickly first. The best of news is that the meltdown in China is most likely to be relatively unfelt even amongst their Asian markets as China does not purchase many goods from outside and the few major needs she has will continue even if slightly abated, things essential like coal and petroleum. Further, the only nation carrying a trade deficit of any note is the United States and even should quotas be placed on any goods currently purchased from China will very likely have ten other sources with some popping up due to China cutting production. The European crisis is more likely to hit the United States harder than anything else on the economic horizon. Should the Eurozone break apart due to the collapse of several of their nations having financial difficulties and teetering at the edge of financial Armageddon plus one, Greece, which has in all honesty gone beyond the cusp and is currently running with his feet well away from solid ground just hanging there for that brief Wiley Coyote moment before collapsing into the darkness below only to make a small puff of dust rising depicting his hitting bottom. Even should the entire Eurozone collapse it may actually serve to keep a lid on inflation and allow for low interests rates, a necessity for the United States. That brings us back to the one thing that at first everyone would be glad to see, a real recovery with rising workforce participation which in the United States is down to approximately 63%, one of the lowest figures since the mid-1970s. This would also bring jobs, especially higher end job market opening up once again which would allow for a ripple effect. As the overqualified people working at menial or minimum wage jobs would leave those as jobs in their field became available and they gain employment thus making room for these other positions to employ more of the nations’ work force and soon inflation will return, something there has been no worry about as even the few months where such measurements showed a possibility for inflation to develop only for indicators to slide back the next couple of months with it often seeming like one big step forward and all promise breaking out only to be followed by three or four months of small to moderate steps backwards and everything gained to be lost and often more. When inflation does finally return for real then there will be a really bad situation. Once inflation starts to threaten then the interest rates will rise as a counter to inflation. Rising inflation takes a bigger bite out of people’s pockets all but actual theft. Inflation also helps with making the national debt somewhat more manageable by deflating the value of the currency taking the currency to new lows and the lessening to of the value of the debt and the purchasing power of that coinage. This was where Greece and the other nations in the Eurozone faced; they no longer had control over their coinage, their monetary worth so they were unable to simply lessen the value in order to get a handle on their debts and also make their nation more attractive to investors and new businesses. Perhaps leaving the Eurozone for a set period of possibly not less than two years and no longer than a decade or quarter century at which point they can reapply at the short end or must face a permanent decision at the longer end. Granted, this will possibly make some nations more reckless but the consequence is the only alternative to having the Eurozone nations turn their entire control of monetary and fiscal planning over to Brussels, they already control the monetary which is part of the problem, and most nations will refuse to be relieved of the power of the purse even if they are no longer able to control the coinage of said purse. Perhaps even a rotating schedule where every nation has to spend a decade using their own coinage would be another compromise. Until the Eurozone finds the answer they will be facing little impossible challenges as is Greece right now and others down the line. Let’s just hope their mistakes don’t become global economic-mines blowing the world markets haywire.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Could a Real Zionist Leader Please Step Forward

 

Yesterday the Israeli public received a surprise as Avigdor Liberman resigned as Foreign Minister and announced that his Yisrael Beytenu Party would sit in the opposition rather than sit in a centrist government which does not represent a strong right wing and nationalist governance. Whether this was a political ploy to try and gain additional positions despite Yisrael Beytenu’s less than overwhelming show in the elections or an attempt to cast himself and his Yisrael Beytenu Party as the real leader willing to stand apart, if that is what is necessary to force a real nationalist coalition with real nationalist goals and directives forming the coalition agreement; Avigdor Liberman may mean exactly what he claims or this may be a restructuring while performing a facelift for what appears to be an ailing Yisrael Beytenu Party. Whatever Avigdor Liberman may have in mind, it remains to be seen whether his prediction of an ill functioning coalition will spend much of its time plugging holes and cracks in the coalition attempting to hold a governing coalition of merely sixty-one Ministers, as slim a majority as one might ever hope to make a working ruling coalition. Avigdor Liberman has struck the heart of the problem and probably knows exactly what he is doing by pointing out that Prime Minister Netanyahu is not only not a proven nationalist but actually a reluctant nationalist. I hope Avigdor Liberman is not expecting to be awarded a Zionist achievement medallion with which he can claim to be the nationalist answer to Benyamin Netanyahu and find himself being chosen to form the next ruling coalition after the next election. But the best bet is that Avigdor Liberman is simply jostling the electorate and rattling everybody’s cage both within the coalition and in the opposition basically claiming he is willing to go it alone rather than enter a coalition which ignores or even opposes what he sees as some of the most vital of nationalist and Zionist principles which he is claiming as the core beliefs of the Yisrael Beytenu Party. Whether this move is just a ploy to gain advantage for his joining of the coalition between now and the deadline this week for forming a coalition remains for us to see.

 

Whatever the result of the Liberman gambit and the Netanyahu coalition cobbling, the realities are that there may not be an actual Zionist or nationalist leader whose political party is capable of garnering sufficient support to warrant being tapped to form the coalition after the next elections. That begs the question of what is the most likely alternative and how can any alternative to another Netanyahu coalition be formulated as the best possibility for those who might offer a more positive governing coalition leadership. That is where the crux of the problem lies. Prime Minister Netanyahu speaks probably one of the best Zionist and nationalist arguments one could ever imagine but when it comes to putting action to those wonderful sounding worlds it appears that Prime Minister Netanyahu has an application problem which he is unable to get past. The chance that anybody might have come by having the religious Zionists and nationalist camp combine together and promise that if given the necessary representation as a combined group that a new form of government would be installed where the Ministerial department positions would be awarded experts from industry, academia and wherever else they may be found is possibly too much to expect happen by chance. The promise is that the ministers on your party list are intending to be members of the Knesset but not be rewarded with positions for which they have little if any expertise. There would be two completely separate lists of candidates, one would contain close to or over seventy names taken from the several parties and a secondary list of proposed cabinet positions as Ministers of the Cabinet who were chosen for their expertise and not as bribes to patch together a ruling coalition. This would be a fresh new concept where the Prime Minister was not using the myriad of Ministerships which make up his cabinet as rewards for those choosing to join the coalition and instead offer a coalition of parties who have agreed upon a purely Zionist grounds to become part of a new governance where the coalition is formed purely on principles and the Ministers in the Knesset would be responsible for addressing the matters of law and regulations. A few examples might be in order, Foreign Minister could be held by Benyamin Netanyahu where he could use his special powers of persuasion; Professor Stanley Fischer would make an outstanding Minister of the Economics Portfolio as he is unrivaled in his abilities in the field of economics, a military leader such as General Ganz could be charged with Defense Minister and other similar such discerning selections could be made to fill the other Ministerships which would make up the Cabinet Ministries.

 

The problem with this idea is getting the members of the political class to agree to forgo their egos and simply do what would in the long run be best for Israel. I am sure that every Minister who manages to land some prestigious Cabinet Ministership would feel they are exquisitely qualified to address anything required by the position and they are so brilliant that they would not even gain by the advice of an actual expert. This has usually been most evidenced by those tasked as Minister of Finance, Minister of Defense, Minister of Public Security, Minister of Housing and Construction and we could simply go down the list until we had all of them listed for one reason or another. Part of the problem with the current system is that the separate ministers are also using the power of their particular ministerial position to gain leverage over other Ministers who also can use their ministerial powers to take revenge and in the end the Israeli public pays the price as government ends up being grossly mismanaged. If at the top of the whole government is a Prime Minister who is having difficulties threading the needle while walking a tightrope over a river swarming with crocodiles because he is attempting not to upset the leaders of the rest of the world while keeping a lid on a cabinet filled with egomaniacs all vying to undo the other’s position while ignoring their own responsibilities and still run a nation, well, that is a recipe for a disaster. The biggest problem is the lack of a positive and strongly led group which knows what the end result that is desired and they all can actually agree on that desired result. Such leadership has to be resolute and determined and must be sufficiently sure of their position thus capable of taking command of any situation and continue to move towards that goal while solving every problem actually of any consequence along the way. The problem is there has been no such leader who has come forward and declared such a vision and painted a picture for the Israeli people to also see that vision and be supportive, or at least fifty-five percent voting public behind this vision.

 

There was such a vision and slogan that could have made that difference when Naftali Bennett hit on the no apology for desires to keep that which belongs to Israel according to International Law. He was on target with this idea and could have built upon this base structure by giving the explanation why we no longer need to say we are sorry for living on our own homeland and we have had enough with the demands for the dividing of our lands, of our Jerusalem, of all that is ours forevermore. But then Naftali Bennett made a cardinal error even if he believed that which he stated when he stated that he was not yet ready to be Prime Minister. Mr. Bennett, let me let you in on a little secret, nobody who is honest with themselves is ever ready to be Prime Minister but that does not mean that they should come out and say so. Once you lost faith in your ability to lead, on that moment your entire no apology campaign apologized and died. The really sorry thing is that honestly we the people of Israel should never forgive you for stealing out opportunity to follow an idea whose time had come and had a vibrant and energetic leader saying what we needed and wanted to hear and then he balked and stole from us our opportunity. Naftali, if I may be so casual, it was not your place to decide if you were ready to be Prime Minister; that decision belonged to us, the Israeli public. If we decided you were ready then it was up to us to give you whatever you needed to lead and do so with vigor and confidence grown by the faith of the people you lead. The secret is that anyone can lead providing they have drawn a clear picture for the future, defined how they plan to take us to that future, tasked the people with their role in this plan and then step forward and let the wave of the supporters assisting and pushing you on ahead as the leader. You see, the people choose a leader and when there is no true and real leader with an idea and a picture they can draw for everyone of what they aim to accomplish and the people agree and ask again for the initial steps they should take that lead to your future and then get ready to run. If as the leader you falter, then the people will have to carry you until you regain your footing; but if we detect that your faith has wavered and the dream has dimmed in your eyes and deserted your hearing, then the people will seek a new leader as you will have left them stuck half way, but the people will live on and find their next leader as that is how it works. Read about Winston Churchill’s life. He was ridiculed and chased from public life, called a warmongering old man who never left the big war. Yet when Hitler was knocking on Britain’s door who did they call? Winston Churchill, and almost as soon as that war ended they unceremoniously punted him from office and into retirement until a few years later they once again needed a leader as they were facing dire problems. Winston Churchill may not have been the leader they needed then, but during World War II there could not have been a better leader than Winston Churchill and the Queen steadied the ship and even joined the crews working in the wreckage that was south London. She assisted in stacking the whole bricks and the broken bricks each according to size and reusability and her assistance did little in the theme of things but few did more. The Queen, Churchill, and the Royal Air Force (RAF) saved Britain to fight another day, and fight on she did. Great times will make great leaders more often than great leaders will make great times.

 

When the situation is dire and the enemies are closing on all quarters leaving nothing on which to hope than one last charge into the breach, then that is when a great leader is required. Israel is in just such a position. The friend who gave promise after promise barely keeping a one of them but still a friend is all one can hope for when the stormy winds do blow. The winds are blowing and swirling all about Israel yet thus far she has held her ground and not been swept into the mire quite yet. It is just these winds which are blowing everywhere just outside our borders and beyond does not bode well as these items have a way of dragging us down and into the fray. Israel needs a great leader with a cool hand and a mind capable of nimble calculations made on the fly yet critically accurate. The rules for judging human beings and their often emotional outbreaks are not as well defined as a game of chess or checkers. Israel’s main problem lies at a distance but is also being permitted to enrich uranium and plutonium such they will be a virtual nuclear armed nation, whatever that means. United States President Obama may have misspoken when answering a question about Iranian breakout point when he answered that their breakout time would be zero. The media pretended that he had not made any odd or worrisome statement and the interview continued without returning to that question or making any note when summing up the interview. A breakout time of zero means that the Iranians after a decade will have the ability to make an advanced nuclear weapon in as little as six weeks, possibly less. Additionally, should the Houthis in Yemen conquer the entirety of their nation, something which appears to be all but guaranteed, then indirectly Iran will have control over the two most strategic chokepoints for shipping in the world. Additionally, this will add Yemen to the list of nations directly or indirectly which include Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and their foothold in South America in the Tri-Border Region. Iran has ties with the Cuban government as well as loose alliances with the Mexican drug cartels through Hezballah and by whom they gain access into the United States. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are getting rather edgy with Yemen being their immediate concern. The Saudis have even gone so far as to seek a possible alliance which would include Turkey, the wildcard which nobody knows where they will appear but one can bet that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan which will make Egypt more than a little edgy as Turkey and especially Recep Tayyip Erdogan have direct and deep relations with the Muslim Brotherhood. One item which everyone can rely on from Turkey sometime this summer they will again launch the Mavi Marmara on another attempt at breaking the Gaza Embargo blockade. Thus far there is no solid data on how many ships and activists they plan in sending along with the Mavi Marmara on this summer’s little stunt which the leaders of IHH have planned with the finest Islamist blessing from Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As one can see from just this sampling of the realities, pressures, problems, challenges and other calamities waiting for those who choose to desire to lead the state of Israel, it is no wonder that Naftali Bennett and others would think themselves not ready to take on the challenges any Israeli Prime Minister must face even briefly, let alone for four years should he also manage to keep all the disparate groups making up his coalition happy, and this would prove difficult even if one was blessed with a coalition with only three or four parties giving the Prime Minister the comfort of a seemingly stable coalition to oversee. In all honesty, no sane person could ever truly be ready to hold the office of Prime Minister and anybody saying different has not considered the challenges or the threats they would face when holding the position. The Prime Minister would have those detractors who would sit comfortably challenging every decision made by the Prime Minister simply playing devil’s advocate and that are just the media. Even from within his own party the Prime Minister would receive criticisms both from those further to the right and from those further to the left and would soon realize that a Prime Minister can find themselves truly alone even in a meeting of his inner cabinet. Facing these challenges and the other daunting difficulties which every Prime Minister is required to face would chill the nerves of even the best amongst us and would be such that no rational individual would desire such office, yet should the head of even the smallest party claim they are not willing to put their shoulder against the wheel and push it with all their might, then that party needs to choose a new leader who is composed of sterner material. Still, leading a party and potentially having to face the burdens of the office of the Prime Minister would be the challenge of one’s lifetime and truly exhausting taking every last morsel of energy you could give and then demand just that little bit more as the office will force you to give your best effort or it will overwhelm one; so yes Mr. Bennett, you are like every other person who would be facing this before you, but still whether the people desire you to take on that mantle is who decides whether you are ready for such position and you as a party leader do not have the right to take that choice from us, the electorate. That is how the system works and that is what we are left with currently and for the foreseeable future and it is up to us to make this system work and to make changes as we are able and prove to have been capable to meet the challenge just as the electorate chose, the electorate chose and not the party leadership necessarily making such a choice. May the electorate find that leader capable of withstanding the pressures and still stand ready and capable of staring down any external influences who will try to manipulate the leaders of the nation of Israel as, for reasons too perplexing to go into here, the whole rest of the world seems to believe that they are the deciders of what direction Israel must take, yet they are gathered around the Israeli leadership waiting with the patience of vultures desiring to feast on the last remnants of Israel after the world powers have chopped sufficient sections off to grant to any and every claimant against the Jewish nation and then waiting for the last bit to die a very unnatural death. This is why we must have a leader who will stand up and say, ‘no more’ and ‘never again’ and lastly, ‘that which was promised us by man and by a higher power will be ours to cherish and you with your axes desirous of cleaving piece after piece knowing that your angry actions will destroy would kill the victim Israel must know we will not go quietly into that darkness you wish to silence us with, we will not go into the night without a fight, we will win and retain our lands and the Zionist spirit which built her out of the swamps and rocks and boulders and against every challenge we did and will continue to prevail.’

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Long Night Births Hard Questions on Israeli Election Results

 

With virtually all the votes counted we have the preliminary picture but the lines are fuzzy and the results produce more questions than answers. Likud is leading the pact with 29 seats with the “Zionist Camp” of Labor and Hatnua following with 24 and the Joint Arab List has 14 seats, followed by Yesh Atid with 11, Kulanu with 10, Jewish Home has 8, the Haredi parties Shas and United Torah Judaism tied at 7, Yisrael Beytenu has 6 and Meretz closes out the list with 4 seats and unfortunately Yachad party will be left out. The raw numbers would indicate a huge win for Netanyahu and loss for the “Zionist Camp” falling well behind due to Likud exceeding its lower polling and Labor-Hatnua equaling expectations. A closer look reveals where the Likud came by its higher numbers and it appears that Likud gains came at the expense of largely Jewish Home and potentially prevented Yachad from making threshold. The other obvious change has been that instead of preventing the fragmentation and reducing the number of minor parties the raising of the threshold only served to drive the smaller leftist, anti-Zionist Communist and Post=Modernist parties into a single block under the name of Arab Block and given them two to three additional mandates making Zoabi and Tibi appear all the stronger. These raw results are meaningless until the different parties, unions and blocks make their desires and support clear to President Rivlin producing a clearer picture who should be given first shot at forming a coalition.

 

The raw data would make Likud out to be the victor and to the victor go the spoils, but what spoils? The name of the game is coalition making and hopefully doing so with in kind minds and supporters of your positions. This means that any seats gained by Likud at the expense of Jewish Home makes the resultant total possessed by the two presumed to be allied parties no different and all the Likud gains from Jewish Home losses as simply rearranging the chairs on either a cruise ship or the Titanic. The truth is that Netanyahu does not really want the religious, Zionist, nationalist allied parties to be the base of his support when forming his coalition. Netanyahu wants to have as much political leeway allowing him to go in whatever direction provides him with the easiest path in the new government. By Netanyahu weakening the standing of Jewish Home, when forming any coalition now would make Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid and Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu parties more important and carrying a greater influence than Jewish Home and making Naftali Bennett’s voice virtually powerless and squelched while Yair Lapid and Moshe Kahlon will be the roaring lions in the government and also place them ahead of Jewish Home in choosing the Ministerial position of power in the cabinet. This will give Netanyahu the leftward freedom to ignore the demands of the Religious Zionists as he desired. Netanyahu’s ploy of assailing Jewish Home voters laying any loss he might face to Hertzog and Livni at their feet just as he had done previously except this time he did so with no apparent loss in voter totals that he faced in 2013.

 

So now we wait and see who will be chosen to form a coalition first and then suffer through six weeks of excruciatingly boring power plays which we already see Jewish Home and the Zionist and nationalists being mostly sidelined while the personal aggrandizing Yesh Atid and Kulanu parties empowering Yair Lapid and Moshe Kahlon loudly impressing their demands and thus control over the most critical areas in the next government. Lapid may demand Treasury Minister for himself and two other high position Ministerial position for his main people with Kahlon likely to demand Foreign Minister or Defense Minister and two other major Ministerial positions for his list leaving Jewish Home with second pickings of the scraps for the supporting members and a middle level leftover for Naftali Bennett. The one certainty is that the governing coalition will not be the nationalist, Zionist government that Netanyahu once again ran on but will once again claim he is prevented from pursuing due to the lack of support from, you guessed it, a weakened and ineffectual Jewish Home. As long as the religious Zionists fall for the Netanyahu cry after running a weak campaign making the certainty of his returning to the Prime Ministership a definitive possibility from the polls and then turning to the supporters of Jewish Home and the other ardent Zionist parties to vote Likud to stave off the leftist challenge then Jewish Home will be forever the bridesmaid and never the bride. Eventually the leader, be it Bennett or be it his successor or beyond down the road, assuming there is a down the road, decides to challenge and present Jewish Home as the new leadership for Israel, Netanyahu will continue to utilize this ploy of siphoning off the votes of those more Zionist than Netanyahu desires to govern with and neutering those Zionist parties from where Netanyahu glides to victory with the stolen support, then the real Zionist political power will remain neutered and voiceless in the future Likud Party led governments. For now we must wait and see what develops but be warned that the expectations of the ardent Zionists have once again been sacrificed to the Bibi and thus lower expectations are their feed in the coming government. The other reality is that it appears that Netanyahu will require Yair Lapid and his treasonous backstabbing to permit a coalition to be cobbled together, so expect new elections again in two or so years when Lapid again sees a wounded Netanyahu for his actions such as the silent building freeze or whatever other sacrifices made presumably in response to a powerful United States President Obama in order to salvage continued friendship from the White House. Anybody else notice that it is only Israel who needs to obey and bow to the will of Obama? Can bowing to golden calves or worse be far behind?

 

Beyond the Cusp