Beyond the Cusp

July 10, 2015

Our Economic World is Shakier Than We’ve Been Told

Filed under: 24/7 News Reporting,Absolutism,Administration,Appeasement,Appointment,Austerity Measures,Balanced Budget,Banking Failure,Belgium,Binding Resolution,Brussels,Budget,Cabinet,Capitalism,China,Civilization,Class Warfare,Close Banks,Communism,Communism,Consequences,Constitutional Government,Corruption,Debt,Debt Ceiling,Default on Debt,Democracy,ECB,Economic Growth,Economic Independence,Economy,Elections,Emergency Aid,Equal Responsibility,Equal Rights,Equal Treatment,Equality,Euro,Euro Zone,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Media,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Failed State,Fascism,Finance Minister,Financial Crisis,Fiscal Cliff,Foreign Aid,Foreign Funding,France,Funding,GDP,German Pressure,Germany,Government,Government Control,Government Waste,Government Worker,Greece,Hyper-Inflation,IMF,Increased Spending,Inflated Spending,Inflation,Interest on Debt,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Italy,Leftist Pressures,Livable Wage,Local Government,Mainstream Media,Media,Media Bias,Media Censorship,Minimum Wage,Ministership,National Debt,Nationalist,Nationalist Pressures,Panic Policies,Parliament,Poland,Political Identity,Politicized Findings,Politics,Prime Minister,Protests,Quantitative Easing,Regulations,Relocation,Rioters Pressure,Secular Interests,Secularist Socialism,Sequestration,Shared Currency,Socialism,Spending Cuts,Submission,Taxes,Under Employment,Unemployment,Union Interests,Validate Elections,Victims,Voting,Wealth,Wealth Redistribution,World Opinion,World Pressures — qwertster @ 2:17 AM
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The mainstream media, especially the European Media, are all the news all the time covering the Greek economic meltdown. Some of the more honest media has also included the crises that could be soon to topple as if dominoes all in a row of which Greece is but the first domino to be tripped to fall and they have shown how Spain and Portugal would be precariously hanging and soon toppled partly as a result of Greece’s defaulting though it might be likely they would have fallen eventually all on their own. These would trigger a crisis in Ireland and Italy as to which would be the fourth victim and which would follow as the fifth victim signaling the end of the most endangered Eurozone nations too close to default to be comforting. The real horrific effect of these five weaker economies finally tripping the default cable and snagging the economic webbing, which has held the European Union and the Euro together since 1999, doing irreparable damage to the delicate webbing, more fragile than the most slightly laced spider’s web, tearing enormous holes in its intricate weaves slashing at the most vital threads and upsetting the ever so precarious balance that underlies its supporting structures threatening to unbalance and collapse even the previously though stable economies of France, Poland and many of the other east European economies possibly pushing them right to the cliff-face and potentially tipping them beyond the cusp and into default thus lacerating the last remnants of the Eurozone and possibly taking with them Germany and the ECB (European Central Bank) causing unimaginable damage to the financial structure of Europe and beyond, the ripple effect causing a second deep recession well more serious and taking longer to tank-out and hit bottom and then begin a long sluggish scent clawing for every single Red Cent and Dollar and Euro after having taken its toll on Asia and beyond. But the Euro, Greece, and the rest of the European Union and the Eurozone is but one whirlpool looking to sink every last economic boat.

 

The Euro is what we have been led to believe is the only threat. Where previously economic ships only had to worry about rising and falling tides, now they are adrift and facing not just one whirlpool representing the Euro dying, but now there is a second even more massive whirlpool coming from deep within Asia. China has hit the road’s end and is attempting to push its enormous mountain of debt using a garden trowel while piling on fresh debt using Caterpillar 990K series front end loader shoveling an additional $19.3 billion in an effort to end their three week slide totaling $3.2 trillion downturn in the past three weeks alone. These losses were the result of a Chinese Stock Market where as many as two-thirds of the stocks were frozen in a further attempt to stem the torrents of dollars flowing from their stock market and their economy like the icy waters which flooded the lower decks of the Titanic as she slowly but inexorably fell beneath the waves, something somewhat prophetic for the Chinese markets and economy. There is actually a comparison between the situation in Greece and the downturn in China as one must remember that Greece is as socialist as a nation can be without being either fascist or Communist and Greece has retained their spirit of a democratic Parliamentary system despite it all but China has taken socialism that one final step to communism, the addition of mostly state owned corporations and central planning of the economic engines and manufacturing. Chinese leaders had been attempting to liberalize their economic sectors, though not all of them, selling a number of previously State run businesses and even permitted competition between companies in the same market hoping this would charge their economy further and it had been working but even free-market economic liberalization was unable to stave off this meltdown. The problem obviously is what will this mean for the liberalization of the Chinese economy as the leadership are still Communists who serve the Party and depend on the Party, may decide that much of their financial woes are the result of these new policies and curtail or even reverse some or all of the liberalized companies, markets and take a giant leap backwards to increased government control over every iota of the economy and the manufacturing and sales etc.

 

United States Treasury Secretary Jack Lew commented Wednesday on the current crisis in China stating at the Brookings Institution, that the economies of the United States and China are “still pretty much separated.” In further testimony Secretary Lew queried, “I think the concern … it is a real one … is what does it mean about long term growth in China?” Further in his speech he pointed to the main potential impacts which could emerge as a result to the Chinese Stock Market bleeding financially leaving the leadership seeing ‘Red’ in more ways than one. The leading question is to figure out as soon as possible what the reaction of the leaders of the Communist Party is and whether they may decide that the problem dictates such as appointing new leadership, freezing prices, injecting even more dollars into the markets through the banks and state owned businesses or closing the banks and Stock Market for a week or two cool down and reset to normalcy again; the choices and potential marrying of any two or three makes predictions near to impossible. The one thing which can be computed and predicted as long as the numbers being released and any steps taken are done so in plain view then the impact of the Stock Market freefall on the Chinese economy’s core condition and whether it appears that it will have much elasticity and dynamics when the end is finally reached and the rollercoaster slides on in to the station signaling the end of the ride, and what a ride it was with vigorous growth only to drop who knows how large a percentage of that growth in this correction, and what a correction. Secretary Lew’s closing thoughts are worthy of being repeated as he emphasized, “The question isn’t their commitment to the goal; the question is the pace at which they implemented it, and do they do it fast enough for it to be effective. I hope this is not something that slows down the pace of reform. If the reaction is to put the brakes on reforms, that will slow that process.”

 

With China making a long overdue correction which will be far more severe than it should or could have been if the leadership was not so intent on what numbers they released to the world and on making their predicted economic increase and meet all targets set within the government as to fail was unthinkable and would have been a terrible loss of face thus undermining faith in the economy. This has caused the Chinese to follow the example first used by President George W. Bush and turbocharged by President Barack Hussein Obama which was in the old school simply called a ‘stimulus package’ but is now known by a more enigmatic phrase of ‘Quantitative Easing,’ either of which hides the actual result and method being implemented as who would stand for the government announcing they were devaluing the money supply and taxing every single American by a minimum percentage directly proportional to the percentage increase the total added funding was doled out in stacks of hundred dollar bills, literally thousands of such stacks in the United States and unknown amounts though what is known is the Chinese leadership pumped close to twice the percentage of GDP as did the United States. Just as the United States took their hit starting back in late 2008 and continuing through 2011 and briefly relieved with another round of ‘Quantitative Easing,’ this was like the third pitcher of beer at a table trying to drink their way sober. The economic burst from that mid and late 2011 ‘Quantitative Easing’ gave the economy a burst of hope which appeared to continue due to lowered interest rates and the paring down and mostly neutering of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act gave the economy the needed push for President Obama’s reelection as he could run his campaign claiming to have turned the economy around and that great times lie ahead. Well, as far as that goes I’ll point to Greece and China and point out that the United States has followed similar patterns of fueling the economy and especially the Stock Market with borrowed monies and when loans were unavailable the Federal Reserve would electronically buy Treasury Bonds with funds they imagined into existence as a few strokes on a Federal Reserve keyboard and one produces and completed sale with funny money in that the receipt for the Treasury Bonds was used to balance the books as it represented the electronically derived cash used. This is a very convenient way to purchase items this way when you are the government or a very clever fraudster as just try using the sales slip from one register, say men’s clothing from a department store as cash at the Jewelry Counter and see how far that takes you. The catch, and there is always a catch, to ‘Quantitative Easing’ is that eventually you either have to pay back the money that was invented which can only be done some combination of these three methods, first is retire actual money from circulation which can also be done electronically by retiring any electronic payment made on credit cards, second is to remove the funds through higher taxes taking the money directly from the supply, and lastly one could raise the interest rates and siphon off a percentage of each loan to pay the Piper so to speak. The problem is that each of these methods actually hurt the consumer the most; it is the public that pays the price for the economic and financial misdeeds and ill-advised policies.

 

There are but a few redeeming features out of all of this and one serious and potentially unavoidable problem, and it is a big one. So, we will leave the bad news for last and the good news which will cause doom’s day to come and come quickly first. The best of news is that the meltdown in China is most likely to be relatively unfelt even amongst their Asian markets as China does not purchase many goods from outside and the few major needs she has will continue even if slightly abated, things essential like coal and petroleum. Further, the only nation carrying a trade deficit of any note is the United States and even should quotas be placed on any goods currently purchased from China will very likely have ten other sources with some popping up due to China cutting production. The European crisis is more likely to hit the United States harder than anything else on the economic horizon. Should the Eurozone break apart due to the collapse of several of their nations having financial difficulties and teetering at the edge of financial Armageddon plus one, Greece, which has in all honesty gone beyond the cusp and is currently running with his feet well away from solid ground just hanging there for that brief Wiley Coyote moment before collapsing into the darkness below only to make a small puff of dust rising depicting his hitting bottom. Even should the entire Eurozone collapse it may actually serve to keep a lid on inflation and allow for low interests rates, a necessity for the United States. That brings us back to the one thing that at first everyone would be glad to see, a real recovery with rising workforce participation which in the United States is down to approximately 63%, one of the lowest figures since the mid-1970s. This would also bring jobs, especially higher end job market opening up once again which would allow for a ripple effect. As the overqualified people working at menial or minimum wage jobs would leave those as jobs in their field became available and they gain employment thus making room for these other positions to employ more of the nations’ work force and soon inflation will return, something there has been no worry about as even the few months where such measurements showed a possibility for inflation to develop only for indicators to slide back the next couple of months with it often seeming like one big step forward and all promise breaking out only to be followed by three or four months of small to moderate steps backwards and everything gained to be lost and often more. When inflation does finally return for real then there will be a really bad situation. Once inflation starts to threaten then the interest rates will rise as a counter to inflation. Rising inflation takes a bigger bite out of people’s pockets all but actual theft. Inflation also helps with making the national debt somewhat more manageable by deflating the value of the currency taking the currency to new lows and the lessening to of the value of the debt and the purchasing power of that coinage. This was where Greece and the other nations in the Eurozone faced; they no longer had control over their coinage, their monetary worth so they were unable to simply lessen the value in order to get a handle on their debts and also make their nation more attractive to investors and new businesses. Perhaps leaving the Eurozone for a set period of possibly not less than two years and no longer than a decade or quarter century at which point they can reapply at the short end or must face a permanent decision at the longer end. Granted, this will possibly make some nations more reckless but the consequence is the only alternative to having the Eurozone nations turn their entire control of monetary and fiscal planning over to Brussels, they already control the monetary which is part of the problem, and most nations will refuse to be relieved of the power of the purse even if they are no longer able to control the coinage of said purse. Perhaps even a rotating schedule where every nation has to spend a decade using their own coinage would be another compromise. Until the Eurozone finds the answer they will be facing little impossible challenges as is Greece right now and others down the line. Let’s just hope their mistakes don’t become global economic-mines blowing the world markets haywire.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 13, 2015

A Chance America Riding Off Into the Sunset

Filed under: 2016 Elections,24/7 News Reporting,Absolutism,Act of War,Administration,al-Qaeda,American People,American People Voice Opinion,Amnesty,Appeasement,Appointment,Armed Services,Bab-el-Mandeb,Bill Clinton,Blue Water Navy,Budget,Cabinet,China,Civilization,Class Warfare,Congress,Constitutional Government,Covert Surveillance,Coverup,Defense Department,Democracy,Democrat National Convention,Department of Defense,Ditherer in Chief,Domestic NGOs,Drones,Ecology Lobby,Economic Growth,Economy,Egypt,Electability,Elections,Elizabeth Warren,Employment,Enforcement,Equal Opportunity,Equal Outcome,Equal Rights,Equal Treatment,Europe,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Extreme Leftist,Extreme Right,Federal Government,Foreign Aid,Foreign NGOs,Foreign Trade,GDP,George H W Bush,George W. Bush,Government,Government Waste,Government Worker,Green Businesses,Green Economy,Guard Border,Health Care,History,House of Representatives,Humanitarian Aid,Illegal Immigration,Immigrant,Immigration,Income,Increased Spending,Individual Right to Privacy,Ineffective Sanctions,Inflation,Infrastructure,Internal Pressures,Internal Revenue Service,Intifada,Investment in the Future,Iran,Iraq,IRS,ISIS,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Jerusalem,Jobs,Keynesian Economics,Kurdish Militias,Kurds,Leftist Pressures,Livable Wage,Local Government,Main Stream Media,Mainstream Media,Meaning of Peace,Media,Military,Military Intervention,Minimum Wage,Murder Americans,Nationalist,Nationalist Pressures,NATO,Neglection of Duty,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Osama Bin Laden,Peace Process,Pentagon,Peshmerga Militias,Politicized Findings,Politics,Poverty,President,President Obama,President Vladimir Putin,Quantitative Easing,Rand Paul,Record Vote,Register to Vote,Regulations,Remove Sanctions,Repatriation,Republic,Republican National Convention,Resolution,Roman Empire,Russia,Sanctions,Secular Interests,Security Council,Senate,Sequestration,Socialism,South China Sea,South China Sea,Spending Cuts,Standard of Living,State Legislature,Suez Canal,Syria,Taqiyya,Taxes,Terror,Threat of War,Trade,Ukraine,Unemployment,Union Interests,United Nations,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,US Air Force,US Army,US Marines,US Navy,Validate Elections,Vlad the Invader,Voting,Warrantless Searches,Wealth,Wealth Redistribution,World War III,World Without Zionism or America,Yemen,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:09 AM
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There has been speculation about what role the United States will play on the world’s stage as threats abound of various severities and natures almost everywhere one looks and still we hear from United States President Obama that he awaits final strategy and complete plans laid out before him from the Pentagon before he can act. This excuse from President Obama for not committing to some plan of action sounds unrealistic, especially as it is well known even personally after having served in the United States Army, the Pentagon has plans, War Scenarios, for near any contingency which might arise. This makes President Obama’s excuse of not having any plans before him sound quite lame. Even had the Pentagon not had an exact battle plan in place when ISIS first reared their ugly heads and started chopping heads, especially since some belonged to the United States, you can bet the Pentagon went to their files and had cobbled together six ways come Sunday for dealing with ISIS which probably had added contingencies for removing Bashir al-Assad from power and potentially addressing the Iranian nuclear issue as well. The one thing is, they were not short of was plans. The only thing necessary would be for the President to choose one and they would be implementing within forty-eight hours. Each set of plans would have in the full layout exactly which units were trained for that exact mission and which of those units was at full strength and had a ready status. They would have decided whether or not to use the ready actions units of which at least two brigades of Army would be on immediate deployment status and I can assume the Marines, Navy and Air Force have similar plans for immediate response to any call up.

 

We can trust the Pentagon has plans and that all the President need do is pick up that phone he claims he could use to call for action if Congress did not pass his legislation in a timely manner and instead call the Pentagon and request their actions and plans be presented. Then he could pick up that pen with which he threatened Congress to use to write Executive Orders and use it to sign off on a plan of action and then write an Executive Memo to the leaders in Congress informing them of the impending actions and the Pentagon would take care of the rest. There is one contingency for which the Pentagon likely has plans but would be unable to implement them until the President ordered them to follow and support somebody else’s initiation of actions. That is President Obama’s famous plan of leading from behind, better known as following which often is the action of those too cowardly to commit to actions and stick their neck out, something which would be risky against ISIS but the President can go ahead and stick his neck out, the military would be out in front and would do or die even knowing that in the end the President would claim the glory, after all he took out Osama bin Laden haven’t you heard. Leading from behind is not an option on this crisis but President Obama is not one to make definitive decisions which might have him owning his actions. President Obama would rather simply follow and take only that action was dictated by somebody else, the United Nations, the European Union, NATO led by another member, actually President Obama would follow anybody, well, anybody but Israel. Were Israel to engage ISIS, it would not be a complete surprise if President Obama gave weapons to ISIS through some obscure middleman leader of another nation who might be supportive of ISIS though doing so would be risky. But until somebody else takes the lead we can expect more excuses over action from the White House.

 

One wonders if President Obama has even requested the Pentagon produce their plans for dealing with ISIS and said plans actually called for the United States to sit this round out. We can figure that the United States is loath to send troops back into Iraq after being pulled out by President Obama in a manner that military planners had informed the President was a premature action which would cause more problems than it could solve. The one problem leaving a residual force would not have addressed was President Obama winning reelection on his promise to bring our boys home come something (keeping it family friendly) or high water. The Pentagon may have been requested to provide plans which would include supporting UN or EU or NATO action taken to facilitate leading from behind at which time the Pentagon action would most likely be exactly what we are seeing, doing nothing waiting for somebody else to take the initiative so they could follow thus leading from behind again allowing President Obama to risk nothing which actually making a choice and lead would mean. But this begs a question; what happens if the United States is about to return to her historic role of isolationism where the United States trades with her friends and with her enemies but on a lesser scale and dares not interfere in worldly matters allowing them to work themselves out without United States interventions. United States entering an isolationist perspective would only allow her deployment of troops to be limited and almost always to support trade more than worrying about such trivialities as world balance and defeating evil, that’s better left to the knights of Europe who have always done this before. Of course this before was before the United States encouraged Europe to stop their militarism and that the United States would spread her umbrella and cover them so they could turn to less harmful pursuits such as taking on debt and squabbling amongst each other, just this time no world wars starting in Europe, that was the deal the United States imposed on Europe. But now it appears the United States may be folding up that umbrella and claiming not to see the storm clouds rising out of the Middle East, a denial which is difficult to swallow.

 

The going theory is that the United States will return to the role of the world’s police and enforce the good behavior between the nations extending force projection where needed. That is not the historic tendency of the United States after any major conflicts; her historic stance has been a laissez-faire attitude of simple sitting back keeping her hands politely to herself, which is the norm from the United States. The average American knows little about world affairs and cares even less. The average American was defined by President Clinton in his initial campaign for the Presidency with his slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid.” The stupid in this case was George Herbert Walker Bush (the elder and first Pres Bush) and the elections proved it as President Bush did not gain reelection largely due to his having broken his promise of, “Read my lips; no new taxes,” and then was forced to raise taxes by a Democrat Congress in order to get his budget passed with the military spending not slashed by the Congress. The election of President Clinton over reelecting President Bush was all about domestic policies over foreign policies.

 

You start to talk about foreign policy with the average American and their eyes gloss over and they drift into some zombie like state all catatonic and in shock after the first two or three sentences. Talk about immigration, taxes, domestic hot-button issues, government spending of which all is unnecessary except those they are or will receive, and the economy then you will engage in a sometimes heated debate. Talk about money and they will listen, talk about something happening in the Mille East or Asia and they will repeat what the media stated, that is bad, that is good and those people sure have as rough time, but then they will turn it back to how the government needs to take care of things at home first. The average American has all the sympathy you could ever ask for and they will donate more to charities than any other peoples on earth but when it comes to sending their young men off to fight in what they mostly see as somebody else’s war, then they need a ton of convincing and President Obama surfs waves, seldom makes waves when it comes to world politics. The President came from a past as a community organizer, read rabble rouser causing trouble to force government actions usually spending more money of which they get the lion’s share, and knows little outside of Chicago, let alone outside of the United States. He treats foreign policy as if it was a plague and to his outlook, as well as many Americans outlooks, simply does not go past the horizon and possibly not past the water’s edge.

 

We can bet that should the Democrat candidate become the next President, they too will do little as they can in foreign policy. We need remember that the Democrat candidate will not likely be Hillary Clinton but more likely somebody not even announced as of yet. Ms. Clinton’s campaign van has the wheels flying off and the engine is about to quit. The van is driving down the road to oblivion. But what if it is the Republican candidate, you inquire. There we need to find out who will take the lead and which ones do not survive the first three or four actual primary votes. We can make some specific and general observations. Rand Paul is an isolationist libertarian who believes if the United States hurts nobody then nobody would target the United States. Of all the governors and ex-governors running, only Jeb Bush might be a President inclined to use military force and actually have an active foreign policy. Others have claimed that they will repair the United States relations with Israel as well as Egypt and Saudi Arabia largely undoing some of the changes made under President Obama. Still, such actions do not necessarily mean a return into Iraq to defeat ISIS unless it becomes a dire threat to the stability of the Middle East. Only Senator Marco Rubio has direct experience with foreign policies as he in on the Senate Intelligence Committee which gives him access beyond the average Senator under the need to know doctrines. Almost any Republican candidate becoming President would easily take four months to a year to become fully briefed on every hot-spot that the Pentagon had plans and counter plans and different options under each plan and time granted each. Such amounts of information is why the President has a Secretary of Defense whose staff is divided so they can divide their work and attend to each contingencies. Still, the final decisions and person who must form the overall foreign police and who has to call in the troops for action when deemed to be necessary lies with the President and the President alone. That is one of the reason it is said that it is lonely at the top. We still have no real available input that any of the Republican candidates would press for an interventionist approach to foreign policies.

 

Likely the most pressing foreign policy might already have their hands tied should President Obama make any Iran nuclear deal somehow into a treaty without gaining Congressional affirmation. Such a decade long deal would actually prevent the next administration from taking any actions without smoking gun style proof that Iran had broken the agreement but as the agreement includes steps all the way through twelve years with little margin for change in the terms or even the terminology during that time period with the Iranians presumably free to complete their desired goal of deliverable nuclear warheads and the ICBMs on which to place them after ten years according to President Obama’s own admission which would leave them at a minimum two years to produce as many weapons systems as they are able starting with an unknown amount of LEU (low enrichment Uranium) with which to work and all of that Uranium a simple two day’s processing to be made weapons grade HEU (highly enriched Uranium over 90% purity) and then they would be capable of molding the cores and producing actual weapons. All of this is a guess of what the eventual agreement will appear to say and Iranian compliance to the terms and inspection protocols as well as their answering numerous questions about previous work performed largely by the military which Iran insists is an unprecedented and unnecessary invasion of their privileges and privacies. So, when it comes to the Iranian nuclear program the next President may be acting with his hands tied and possibly looking at a negative response from a nuclear armed Iran claiming their dominion over Iraq and dismissing the need for United States interference in their area of control which they will claim includes Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and who knows where else by January 21, 2017 when the next President takes office. After Iran there will be other situations such as Russia and their low-grade war with the Ukraine and its possibilities, China and their expansion Islands being built and potentially taking territorial control semi-legally over the entire South China Sea giving them control over one of the most active shipping lanes in the world. Speaking of choke points for shipping, Iran already has menacing control over the Straits of Hormuz where almost one third of the world’s oil is shipped by tankers and may through their proxies in Yemen, Houthis can also threaten to control the Bab-el-Mandeb which would cut off the southern exit of the Red Sea making the Suez Canal unusable and the Israeli southern port to the orient and Africa blockaded, a casus belli which could lead to a state of declared war by Iran on Israel and Egypt as both would have their shipping access to the world impeded illegally as Iran would have no other excuse other than they could close all shipping. These are just the top three and none of these includes the ISIS threat which may grow to the point where Iran and ISIS meet on equal footing with ISIS having gained an Air Force even if of a limited nature, and tactics which are prone to working, at least working well against the Iraqi army. ISIS has had far less success against the Kurdish Militias such as the Peshmerga (literally “one who confronts death”) and the People’s Protection Units (known as the YPG). These have held the northeast parts of Syria having an astonishing turning point in the city of Kobanê as well as the northern third or so of Iraq where the Kurdish forces saved thousands of Yazidi and whose Yazidi Militias have joined ranks with the Kurdish Militias. We could continue to the other continents and their probabilities for causing distress but that would leave Antarctica as probably the only safe haven if you desired no strife, or at least not yet.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 16, 2015

Israel Elections are Upon Us Tomorrow

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Now it is weeks, though it seems like years, since the government was dissolved and it is March 16, 2015, the day before elections. When these elections were called by then Prime Minister Netanyahu and the right wing Likud and Jewish Home voting with the opposition to dissolve the Knesset, the going media commentary reported the coming floodgates being opened and the guarantee that Likud and a coalition of purely right wing parties would win well over the necessary sixty-one mandates and not need to include what had proved to be the troublesome egoistic parties of Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua (The Party) or Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid (There is a Future) in the coalition. This was presumed to permit the formed right wing, nationalist and Zionist coalition free of the attempts to form a coalition cutting out Likud, Jewish Home and including Labor and other parties finding a coalition to assume power without any elections, an unprecedented virtual coup by Lapid and possibly Livni. The tenor of the campaigns has revealed the designs on power and the Prime Minister’s seat by Livni and Lapid have been thoroughly revealed beyond any doubt. Tzipi Livni forged a coalition with Labor in order to guarantee her Hatnua Party inclusion in the next government despite it polling beneath threshold and has even finagled to share the Prime Ministership with Yitzhak Hertzog despite not having the backing from the public warranting her attaining such an importance while Lapid made some commentary that should he garner the support he dreams his Yesh Atid Party will garner then he had already figured how he could form a coalition as well placing him in the Prime Minister’s chair. The biggest change since the new elections were called has been the media’s slanted coverage and misrepresenting positions and using questionable polling have potentially drawn the results of the election into question and currently the leftist media have placed the Labor Hatnua misnamed “Zionist Camp” as having a comfortable lead and claiming that Likud and Netanyahu are sinking and soon to be thrown from power. The truth be told, the future of Israel will rest on the next government coalition’s ability to hold the line and resist the growing pressures and demands from United States President Obama and his administration’s attempts to require Israel to return to the pre-Six Day War lines leaving half of Jerusalem and all of Gaza, Judea and Samaria presumably under the rule of the unity Fatah-Hamas-Islamic Jihad governance. Such would place virtually all Jewish holy sites beyond Israeli borders and thus not only beyond the reach of any Jew to visit but also likely to be just as destroyed and razed as if these holy sites were surrendered to ISIS. But the real question is what exactly are the Israeli elections being held tomorrow actually addressing beyond who becomes Prime Minister and who would make the best Prime Minister from those who actually might have sufficient mandates to form a coalition, Tzipi Livni/Yitzhak Hertzog power sharing of two years each, Benyamin Netanyahu, Yair Lapid, the leaders of what is referred to as the Arab Block or Naftali Bennett?

 

Before anything can be considered, we need to define the greatest challenge which the new incoming Prime Minister will face once a coalition has been formed. Oddly enough the greatest challenges the next Prime Minister will face will not come out of Europe, from the Unity Government of Fatah/Hamas/Islamic Jihad, from the BDS (Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions) movement, nor from the United Nations. The challenge will come from what many, including many who desire to be the next Prime Minister, believe to be the closest of Israeli allies, the United States. The good news is that the threat coming from the United States does not have universal acceptance as the Congress remains strongly allied and friendly and supportive of Israel though a few too many actually still believe in the two state solution and the Oslo Accords, nor does the threat come from the majority of Americans where Israel still received support by over a ratio of two to one and still approaching three to one. The menacing threats against Israel are formidable and very adept at arousing support from thousands who will be available to man the parapets and be bussed all the way across the country when called upon. These forces came out from coast to coast and north to south to protest presumably racist police presumably having targeted and murdered a gentle giant in Ferguson, Missouri and then in another confrontation in New York City and these demonstrations have been sustained for months even despite the murder of two police sitting in their cruiser in New York and the shooting and severely injured two police standing in front of the Ferguson police station monitoring the protest taking place across the street. The grand juries in both cases found the police not to be at fault and to have acted within the guidelines of their departments and not to have committed any criminal acts. So, we have already witnessed the ability of President Obama and the assistance by Attorney General Holder generating protests despite the innocence of the police even after the evidence being combed through with a very fine toothed comb and still not establishing any culpability of the police. The only accusation they were able to uncover was what was referred to as “Disparate Impact” of arrests and traffic stops, a statistical fact which would very probably be true in virtually every police department with more than twelve officers. Read the article on >a href=http://jewishworldreview.com/cols/sowell031015.php3 target=blank>“Disparate Impact” by Thomas Sowell>/a> for some depth and truths as only he is able to explain and so far better than my modest attempts.

 

The ability of the Community Organizer in Chief and his Attorney Instigator along with such supporting advisors such as Samantha Power, Susan Rice, new Middle East National Security Council appointment, Robert Malley, are all known for their antipathy towards Israel and have other fellow travelers with some of them even being Jews who are more close with their progressive politics than they are to supporting Israel will present a formidable assault team just waiting for the new Israeli government before they launch their broadsides. The appointment of new Middle East National Security Council Advisor Robert Malley was the final straw which removed all doubt of where President Obama was intending to head concerning all things Israel. Looking back all the way to 2008 and Senator Obama’s initial run for the Presidency and we find his appointing Robert Malley to his foreign advisory team and then firing him shortly thereafter due to protestations from numerous Jewish organizations. When Robert Malley was appointed subsequently to head the foreign relations with Iraq and Iran President Obama made assurances to numerous progressive but still pro-Israel organizations and groups that Malley would be restrained from and never deal with anything concerning Israel. Now that the Jewish vote cannot affect President Obama as all elections are gone and he is in the home stretch so is free to do as he pleases and no longer care whose toes he treads or even stomps on while he finally can act to take out those he wishes to destroy but was unable before to act too overtly. Israel is at the head of that list and is also partially behind the leniency being shown the Iranian nuclear program as President Obama has been supportive the leader of the Shiite world and plans on crowning Iran as the new hegemonic power in the Middle East supplanting both Egypt and Saudi Arabia as well as allowing Iran to be the nuclear balance against Israel. This is behind his plans to make any agreement with Iran as an executive agreement which will be considered a guideline which will be considered to be advisory and not binding thus not a treaty as much as an understanding such that President Obama will claim he can bypass Senate ratification as this is not a treaty or any other binding agreement covered by the Constitution of the United States. This was the advisory out of Iran in response to Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton’s open letter to Iran’s leaders signed by forty-six Senate Republicans where they basically echoed exactly the points made by President Obama about why the Congress, even the Senate or especially the Senate, will have absolutely no say in what is agreed upon in the P5+1 and Iran talks. President Obama has now not only gone to the extreme in his desire to remove Congress from any actions he desires to take but has dived into the deep end in challenging the Constitutional restraints presumably limiting President Obama in his final two years. This bodes poorly for Israel as no matter whom Israel elects and President Reuven Rivlin chooses to form a coalition and succeeds in doing so.

 

President Obama announced his intentions almost as soon as he took office when he stated that the solution of the Arab-Israeli conflict would be the forming of an Arab State using the Green Line, the 1949 Armistice line, as the border. President Obama then forced a building freeze on Prime Minister Netanyahu which officially lasted for ten months but has unofficially continued ever since with announcements for tenders to build but somehow the required documents or authorizations always manage to get hung-up and the structures never get built. There has been little if any delay in the destruction of Jewish buildings ordered by the Supreme Court though Arab buildings with similar orders seldom have the demolitions carried out. During the war in Gaza against Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which was brought on by the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli youths followed soon thereafter by daily increased rocket and mortar attacks on the Israeli southern towns and kibbutzim closest to Gaza with the range of attacks growing daily as well until they struck Tel Aviv, then began the war as such attacks had to be halted, President Obama decided that a single ground-to-ground rocket which landed approximately half a mile south of Ben Gurion International Airport was sufficient a threat to cancel all flights by United States carriers from entering Israeli airspace thus closing the airport. A number of European nations also forbid their airlines from using Ben Gurion International Airport. These shuttering of Israeli airspace was despite the knowledge that there was an Iron Dome placed south of the airport plus two other Iron Dome units in the proximity guarding Tel Aviv and Jerusalem which made it next to impossible for anything launched from Gaza of threatening any airliners. There was also the additional requirement inserted between the United States and Israeli militaries which under war conditions are by treaty allowed to resupply Israeli needs straight military to military without need of further validation then being required to receive State Department approval which prevented any resupply of Israel during the conflict in Gaza. This was a breach of treaty and an illegal act which President Obama simply ignored the law of the land as treaties take on once ratified. This exhibits that President Obama has no regard for treaties, agreements, requirements of the United States Constitution or the need to include Congress in any action where such is required by that same Constitution and thus is ruling as if he were Emperor Imperialist of the United States and placing himself above the law. These acts by President Obama are setting precedents should he be permitted such and allowed to trample the Constitution and its limitations on Presidential power that will in the future allow for the destruction of the rule of law and replace it with an imperial presidency which will further take the United States into being under the rule of man, a very dangerous place. This is exactly how President Obama plans on acting, with complete contempt for Congress and with impunity when it comes to empowering Iran and destroying Israel in every way possible and simply daring the Congress to stop his actions.

 

President Obama will also make it known to Arab leadership that should they desire to take Israel before the Security Council that the United States is prepared to abstain from and vote and will withhold its veto whenever able and that they may count on such being the default position of the United States for the remainder of his term in office. This leads Israel to a very dangerous place where if those who have made it their campaign promise and predicated their every statement to promising to repair any supposed damage which Prime Minister Netanyahu may have caused between the Israeli government and the administration of President Barack Obama and by working with President Obama in establishing the two state solution by whatever means are required. These statements have been issued by many who are referred to most often as centrists or center left but not any referred to as far right wing or nationalist backers of the settlements causing an impediment of peace. One must wonder as to what those supporting the two state solution plan on doing should Mahmoud Abbas refuse to make peace unless a complete return to the Green Line with no swaps and a total right of return as well, will they grant the whole set of demands when President Obama advises that they accept these terms as it will be worth doing so as it will finally bring peace. There have been a few statements from Yitzhak Hertzog where he parroted the answers given by Benyamin Netanyahu when they appeared to a debate between them just this weekend, but I have doubts that Hertzog would really stick to such a position if President Obama demanded he surrender all of East Jerusalem as well as Judea and Samaria while accepting five or more million refugees from all the refugee camps and probably beyond as any Syrian refugee who might find an opening to claim refugee status not from Syria but from the Palestinian refugee centers which were in Syria before the civil war. Such an opening if permitted could add near countless refugees being foist upon Israel drowning Israel with Arab refugees who would vote Israel out of being a Jewish state at the very next elections. Probably the best Prime Minister Israel might elect would be a brick wall or whoever comes closest to resembling a brick wall when it comes to surrender to the whims and wiles of President Obama. The unfortunate truth is that the President of the United States would allow Israel’s complete and utter destruction as to it being the homeland of the Jews, and as such, a Jewish State. As to who might be such a person, well, that will be left to the Israeli voters tomorrow and the one promise is that, whoever is chosen to form a coalition will be forming the fate of Israel and the Jewish people in their hands, may they be capable hands guided by G0d and may they be girded with the truth, that by International Law and treaty the lands from the west bank of the Jordan River to the beaches on the Mediterranean Sea, every square millimeter of lands belong to Israel and though all other rights are granted to the inhabitants, the Israeli government is empowered to decide who is granted political power and thus may vote in Israeli elections. This was decided by the fifty-two nations unanimously, the entirety of the League of Nations, in 1921 with the ratification of the San Remo Conference which was further validated by the United Nations Charter Article 80 which recognized the Mandates and all other standing treaties and conferences from the League of Nations remained valid and fully applicable and backed by the United Nations as if enacted by that body as well. Perhaps whoever becomes the next Prime Minister of Israel when standing before the United Nations General Assembly next fall, assuming the next government makes it that far, can read to the assembled the contents of the San Remo Conference and remind them of Article 80 of the United Nations Charter and thus put an end to this futile debate which is invalid simply due to International Law which so many claim to desire. Perhaps it is time to give them the truths about International Law and how it may not be the friend they think it be.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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