Beyond the Cusp

June 8, 2015

The Signs of War in the North, They Are a Changin’

Filed under: Absolutism,Al-Quds Force,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab World,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollahs,Benyamin Netanyahu,Blood Libel,Bombing,Borders,Breakout Point,Cabinet,Civilization,Defend Israel,Domestic NGOs,Drone Strikes,European Pressure,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Gaza,Golan Heights,Government,Hamas,Hamas Charter,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,Hezballah,ICC,ICJ,IDF,International Court of Justice,International Criminal Court,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps,Iraq,IRGC,Iron Dome,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,Jordan,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Mainstream Media,Media,Media Bias,Middle East,Misreporting,Missile Attacks,Mortar Attacks,Muslim World,Muslims,Nasrallah,Nuclear Option,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,One State Solution,P5+1,Palestinian Pressures,Peace Process,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,Prime Minister,Promised Land,Quds Force,Rocket Attacks,Secular Interests,Shiite,Submission,Swarm Attack,Syria,Tel Aviv,Tribe,Twelvers,United Nations Presures,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,World Opinion,World Pressures,World Without Zionism or America,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:47 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

We just had the usual late spring three day national exercise where one day they hold coast to mountains, north to south siren head for the shelters practice scenarios. Then there was the news that the IDF and emergency services were practicing for a potential and unprecedented assault where thousands of rockets would be launched in mass swarms with as many as a thousand rockets per wave, something well beyond anything that the Iron Dome with even every other system assisting could ever be hoped to prevent. The estimates were that under such an assault there could be as many as four-thousand deaths and untold casualties in the first few days. Where such news stories likely unnerved a great number of those reading them, I had been feeling something was amiss and even mentioned that to people after the practice shelter runs just seemed eerily more like a premonition than a practice session. The claims is that Iran is planning this little warm welcome by arming Hezballah in Lebanon with more rockets than they would likely be capable of launching even if given free range to do so for two to three weeks. Then they are also attempting to set up a secondary strike location near the Golan Heights likely to strike the IDF forces guarding that front and potentially also giving the Iron Dome and other anti-missile systems a second set of angles to compute on their intercepts. Perhaps that explains the serious tautness permeating the air making each breath full of the tensions strangling the very oxygen needed for life itself.

 

Will these feelings really be a true forecast of what is to come later this summer or just a case of the nerves which will be remembered with great laughter at my expense. I will welcome the humbling experience but then again there are many other threats which could also make life less enjoyable here in Israel. Fortunately the BDS people have not succeeded to any great extent outside the university and college campuses despite the great dilemmas and threats of the past few weeks with the FIFA affair and the Orange CEO misfire and retractions followed by repeated apologies and protestations of great affection for and loyalty to providing service in Israel. Meanwhile, it appears that the crisis of upsetting the Israeli public was far more concerning than any threat from the BDS crowd whose loud screaming has proven to be unnerving but eventually harmless and without any real harm if ignored. Still, the initial reaction from the CEO of Orange could prove troubling should other CEOs prove to be anywhere near as panicked as the Orange executive then Israel might end up facing some difficulties but also should these companies have such easily spooked in response to empty threats CEOs then perhaps they should find a new CEO made of sterner stuff. But the BDS is a mostly empty threat while Iran is a very real threat with great complications.

 

The main complication is what should Israel do if they realize that an attack is imminent from Iran, strike at Iran in a preemptive strike to prevent what would be an existential threat to Israeli existence and risk President Obama leading the charge in the United Nations Security Council to destroy Israel by referring them to the International Court of Justice at the Hague for attacking another United Nations member nation with the American President believing the Iranian claims that they had no such attack planned and Israel really was the greatest threat to peace in the Middle East and even the entire world. The following destructive actions from the United States, European Union, United Nations, and the international court systems which could result in a majority of nations recalling their ambassadors and closure of the Israeli Embassies in their nations and even the United Nations might eject Israel and cancel the United Nations Resolution which was theoretically the reason Israel became a nation. The fact that the United Nations and the world’s nations turning against Israel could not actually have any effects on the fact that Israel is a nation as Israel meets the requirements that define a nation so despite whatever actions the rest of the world might decide to take, Israel would remain a nation unless overrun by the nations of the world as revenge for their perceived unprovoked attack on Iran, though that is also highly unlikely.

 

Where, in all reality, an assault out of Iran is unlikely at this time, an assault from out of Syria coordinated with Hezballah in Lebanon as well as assisting in the Syrian assault as the last hurrah attempting to gain allies to assist Bashir al-Assad as his position has become more untenable with every passing week and it is rapidly becoming desperation time where any possible hope will be attempted no matter how far-fetched or remote the probability for success. An assault on Israel, especially one which leaves Israel sufficiently hurt that Assad can claim that he has accomplished what the rest of the Arab world has failed in achieving, making Israel reel from the damages of a swarm rocket attack, as swarm attacks are the known Iranian tactic for overwhelming opponents hoping for marginal success, would the world finally back an Israel equivalent strike to prevent similar follow on attacks or turn on Israel claiming the tired accusation of disproportionate response, as they are want to do. The possibility that such an attempt would assist Assad in any way shape or form is ludicrous and would only result in an assault by Israel on the areas of Lebanon controlled by Hezballah to wipe out every possible missile and rocket storage areas and launchers and also destroy every last possible Hezballah base, training area, bunkers, tunnel systems and any other assets that Israeli intelligence has identified. There will be the unfortunate necessity to strike the storage and launch sites in southern Lebanon which are largely below the Litani River, an area which the United Nations forces in Lebanon, UNIFIL, were supposed to prevent Hezballah from rearming and rebuilding their infrastructure according to United Nations Resolution 1701 which brought the last Lebanon War to an end. Unfortunately the UNFIL forces have had great difficulty and quickly simply gave up and refused to risk any confrontation while the European UNIFIL troops simply took their equipment and returned to Europe refusing to assist claiming the risk was too great and the potential for success too low, and there even have been those seen to aid Hezballah in their operations in southern Lebanon. This has allowed Hezballah to place launchers and missiles and rockets in virtually every civilian structure including schools, apartments, homes, hospitals and virtually every other structure imaginable. The intents of Hezballah is exactly the same intent Israel experienced last summer during Operation Protective Edge where Hamas fired the majority of their rockets from next to the same exact types of buildings and had their underground bunkers beneath hospitals and schools in attempts to maximize the civilian casualties in order to generate as much bad media coverage as possible.

 

Hamas also understood that Israeli missile defense and the fact that Israelis have shelters built into most buildings with them required in every new apartment, each apartment and not just the building, and in every newly build office building and retrofit being completed on most older buildings and many schools have been fortified to resist rocket fire; this the Israelis would be vastly more protected and thus the Israeli emphasis on life would serve to minimize Israeli casualties while in Gaza the Hamas efforts would intentionally cause excessive casualties amongst the civilians even making many levels higher directly caused by the overt Hamas efforts. They used this disparity and the media jumped at the reports basically asking over and over again how come there are so few Israeli casualties while there are reportedly thousands of Gazan civilian casualties being reported. There was an interesting finding confirmed by the United Nations investigations that there was almost and even number of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other combatant casualties as there were civilian casualties. The fact that Hamas and Islamic Jihad used the bunker and tunnel systems to keep their fighters as safe as they were able while refusing the civilians any similar access to these areas of safety.

 

The fact that the IDF attained a virtual 1:1 ratio was unprecedented in modern warfare by any military since the advent of modern warfare. World War I was the last war where civilian casualties were appreciably lower than civilian casualties having a ratio of 2:3 of civilians to combatants killed. World War II had a ratio of 2:1 civilians to combatants killed while the Korean War had a ratio of 2:1 civilians to combatants as well. The Viet Nam war numbers are very controversial and range in ratios of civilians to combatants from 1:3 or 1:1 or the more similar to previous wars of 2:1. The two Chechen Wars had ratios of 10:1 in the first war and over 4:1 in the second with a total of approximately 7:1. The NATO war in Yugoslavia had a 4:1 ratio of civilians to combatants. The Iraq War produced a ratio of well over 4:1 civilians to combatants by the numbers estimated by the Iraqi figures and 1:2 civilians to combatants by Coalition numbers, a case of believe whomever you like. The winner for most contested numbers as well as estimated worst numbers was the totality of the drone warfare by the United States in Pakistan. The United States claims that the total number of civilians killed during the past two years was a total of twenty to thirty civilians against numbers approaching between five-hundred and one-thousand militants and terrorists. Daniel L. Byman of the Brookings Institution estimated a ratio of 10:1 as being much closer to the truth. The reported worst ratio ever reported for a single strike, thus the worst possible example and should be taken as such and not an actual comment but more as an example how in modern warfare a single attack can go so absolutely wrong. The report was from the British paper the Guardian which reported, “On 15 October 2010, Hellfire missiles fired from a Predator or Reaper drone killed Hussain, the Pakistani Taliban later confirmed. For the death of a man whom practically no American can name, the US killed 128 people, 13 of them children.” This single attack produced a civilian to combatant ratio of 128:1, fortunately this worst case scenario has had no similar such tragedies as far as we could ascertain.

 

What this whole discussion about ratios of civilian to combatant was simply to put into perspective the fact that the IDF conducts itself with the restraint and discipline often recalled in military training as control of fire, the confirming of targets and assuring that the long field of fire is free of noncombatants thus minimizing the harm to noncombatants. What people need to realize that in warfare where if you do not eliminate an enemy combatant whence you have the opportunity then you are risking the lives of many of your fellow soldiers and potentially to yourself. Should a Hamas, Islamic Jihad or other terror combatant in Gaza present themselves as a target believing that no Israeli would ever shoot them because they have strapped two young children to their chest hiding their torso from being viable targets due to the children he has unmercifully and illegally as such is a grievous breach of the rules of warfare, but these are terrorists who have a sizeable disregard for the rules of war. They should understand one of numerous rules of war that states that should a combatant utilize a protected building, item or person to protect their position or person, then that protected building, item or person is no longer protected and can be determined as a legitimate target if not shooting the target otherwise protected item to remove the combatant and end the threat of the actual target, such as permissible providing no other alternative is available. Thus far there have been no reports where any IDF soldier had targeted any combatant terrorist who has thusly protected themselves unless they were positive that they had a shot which they confidently could make without causing undue threat to the innocent children beyond the horrors they are already experiencing. Simply put, there have been incidents where trained snipers were embedded in combat units and took such shots usually targeting the combatant’s head thus causing the innocents no harm and possibly saving their lives.

 

The one item we can be assured of is that should Hezballah begin raining rockets, mortars, artillery rounds and missiles into Israel and largely targeting civilian areas with approaching one-thousand-two-hundred or more which would overwhelm even the extremely effective Iron Dome systems and the other systems developed to augment Iron Dome providing a layered defense system, but even such would never be capable, as neither would any other earthly system, of intercepting such a volume of projectiles. The only way to prevent such a threat would be to blanket style attack taking out every potential asset Hezballah has destroying their arsenal in place in both Lebanon and Syria. There would be no viable alternative and do not even go down that blind alley known as the United Nations which will be screaming for Israel to practice restraint and not escalate the threats and violence. And if Israel should actually listen and scale back her response leaving the vast majority of the Hezballah weapons systems intact then who will prevent Hezballah from launching another thousand-plus projectiles on day two then once again there would be the United Nations which will be screaming for Israel to practice restraint and not escalate the threats and violence. Then the third day after Israel called off a night of horrific raids destroying everything they know where it exists using the most accurate munitions in the Israeli arsenal leading to yet another day of approaching or exceeding a thousand projectiles followed immediately by the United Nations which will be screaming for Israel to practice restraint and not escalate the threats and violence. Hezballah is reputed to have over one-hundred-thousand rockets and missiles and this does not include artillery rounds or mortar rounds. This means that Hezballah would be capable of continuing such thousand rockets and missiles for over three months as they would have sufficient to last at least one-hundred days before requiring any restocking by Iran.

 

The threatening reality is that Iran is currently resupplying Hezballah ahead of any conflict and by the time they pull the covers off the launchers and launching the rockets and missiles while all the time the United Nations which will be screaming for Israel to practice restraint and not escalate the threats and violence. I realize the United Nations reference might be getting a little repetitious but just realize how the Israelis feel when we are always told to show restraint as it must be permissible to target Israelis even though only about three out of four Israelis are Jews. We heard the complaints during last summer’s war with Hamas, Islamic Jihad and friends where reporter after reporter would ask why there were so many Gazan civilian deaths and virtually no Israeli civilian casualties. If my memory serves me correctly there was one reporter at least who slipped up and instead of saying Gazans and Israelis but instead stated there were vastly more Arab casualties than Jewish casualties and it begs the questions as to where are the dead Jews in comparable numbers to the Arab deaths in Gaza. He likely stated it the way many others also saw the conflict as so many Arab dead and almost not even a single dead Jew.

 

We can only guess how many were thinking where were the dead Jews in significant numbers despite their knowledge of the extents that the Israeli government and construction companies have gone to fortify safe areas in order to prevent Israeli casualties, Jewish, Arab, Christians, Muslims (yes Israeli Muslims and perhaps one should ask how many Jews are allowed in Arab Palestinian areas), Baha’I and others all living in some degree of terror during the war last summer and would be just as terrorized should the potential warfare that Iran and Nasrallah has hinted awaits Israel, if not more so. The real problem is if the signals from Iran are anywhere near accurate, there might also be another front opened up from out of Gaza initiated by Hamas and coordinated with Islamic Jihad and the other forces which Iran has kept on their payrolls. The real fear is if any warfare this summer should turn into a full-scale and all-out war with far more than the Iranian allies with potentially Turkey adding their forces as well as Iraq and who knows who else. My prayers are for nobody to be even frightened this summer because no violence or threats of violence beyond that we have already heard. May peace grace the hot and hazy days of summer.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 29, 2015

Netanyahu May Have Finally Decided on Government

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,1967 Borders,1967 War,Act of War,Al-Quds Force,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab Authority,Arab World,Arabs,Avigdor Lieberman,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,Ayatollahs,Balfour Declaration,Bayit Yehudi Party,Bedouin Tribes,Beit El,Ben Gurion,Benyamin Netanyahu,Bethlehem,Bible,Bible Study,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Borders,Breakout Point,Building Freeze,Cabinet,Calaphate,Caliphate,Cave of the Patriarchs,Checkpoints,China,Churchill White Paper,Colonial Possession,Condemning Israel,Crusades,Defend Israel,Defense Minister,Demonstrations,Dhimmi,Disengagement,Ditherer in Chief,Divestment,East Jerusalem,Eilat,EMP Device,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Extreme Leftist,Extreme Right,Fadjr,Fatwa,Federica Mogherini,Forced Solution,Fordo,Foreign Funding,Foreign Minister,Foreign NGOs,Framework,France,Gaza,Gaza Blockade,Golan Heights,Government,Grand Mufti of Jerusalem Hussani,Great Britain,Green Line,Guard Border,Hamas,Hamas Charter,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,Hezballah,History,Holy Sites,HUMINT,IDF,IDF,Infiltration Tunnels,Inteligence Report,International Politics,Intifada,Iran,Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps,IRGC,Iron Dome,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jehrico,Jenin,Jerusalem,Jerusalem Day,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Home,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,Jihad,Jordan River,Jordanian Pressure,Joseph’s Tomb,Judea,Judean Hills,Kever Yosef,Knesset,Kotel,Labor Party,Land for Peace,Leftist Pressures,Legal Blockade,Levi Eshkol,Levy Report,Likud,Mecca,Media,Medina,Mediterranean Sea,Menachem Begin,Middle East,Military,Ministers,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Moses,Mount of Olives Cemetary,Muslim Expansionism,Muslim World,Muslims,Naftali Bennett,Nationalist Pressures,Netanyahu,New World Order,Nobel Prize,Non Binding Resolution,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Obama,Old City,One State Solution,Oslo Accords,P5+1,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Pressures,Parchin,Parliament,Parliamentary Government,Peace Prize,Peace Process,Persia,Persians,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,President Vladimir Putin,Prime Minister,Progressives,Promised Land,Protect Citizenry,Protests,Public Service,Qom,Quds Force,Quran,Rafah Crossing,Recognize Israel,Resolution,Response to Muslim Takeover,Russia,Samantha Power,Samaria,San Remo Conference,Sanctions,Secular Interests,Security,Separation Barrier,Settlements,Shiite,Six Day War,Smuggling Tunnels,Society,Soviet Union,Sunni,Support Israel,Supreme Leader,Taqiyya,Temple Mount,The Twelfth Imam,Threat of War,Twelvers,Tzipi Livni,UNHCR,Unify Party,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,UNRWA,Uranium Enrichment,Vlad the Invader,War on Religion,War on Women,Weapons of Mass Destruction,Western Wall,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,World Without Zionism or America,Yitzhak Herzog,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:29 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

None of us are ever likely to be on the inside and be privileged, or should I say cursed, to know exactly what outside pressures Prime Minister Netanyahu has had to face while deciding what kind of government to form. To most of us it appeared so simple, gather over sixty seats with right leaning to far right wing parties and include a minimal number of parties who might go weak under pressure. That is the sad part, that if Israel chooses the governance best for her that we are assured that the world will come down on us heavy and hard demanding that we bend this way and that until we make a Philadelphia pretzel look like a piece of straight bread. But it is easy to suspect that things were somewhat different this time as one of the few friends Israel has depended upon has turned into her greatest threat in far too many ways. We can all assume that President Obama made it very clear that if Prime Minister Netanyahu went ahead and formed that sixty-one or sixty-seven or whatever number right-leaning government that he would face an adversarial Washington which would not guarantee support in all the usual places. We all know what that threat means and what usual place that President Obama references, the United Nations Security Council. What is left out of that formula is that thus far the United States has not faced the need to exercise their veto purely to protect Israel as the usual Arab state demands either never reached the Security Council or failed to attain the necessary nine votes in favor despite their belief that had it in spades when they presented their petition. We heard some of the caterwauling over the past week if we listened to the wind which carried with it demands that Netanyahu make a demonstrative demonstration of his dedications and whole-hearted support for the two state solution which the Europeans and President Obama and company hold so dear. What may have escaped us was the real meaning of those threats and demands emanating from Secretary of State Kerry, Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, State Department spokespersons such as Jennifer Psaki, and President Obama who may have even pressured Netanyahu directly in a personal phone call made necessary due to the reason that it is within weeks, months, years, centuries or millennia to the Iran Agreement, Israeli elections, solar eclipse, arrival of Halley’s Comet or convergence of the planets with the center of the galaxy so President Obama must not appear to permit any public meetings between he and Bibi though he can call and berate him endlessly to toe the line and support the two-state-solution. All this pressure was around one single, but likely unspoken demand, as speaking its name would be uncomely, though why that might matter now is beyond me. That demand was for Prime Minister Netanyahu form a broad coalition and a unity government with Yitzhak Herzog and Tzipi Livni and reward these coequal partners with top cabinet spots such as Justice for Livni as she was so effective in carrying out the Obama principles in the last government, and Herzog to get Foreign Minister and their other highest members to get the Defense Minister and be granted complete control over any building to be approved for Jerusalem or Judea and Samaria. The people placed in that last position need only have one requirement, the ability to say ‘לא’ or ‘no’ in English. This was the real reason Prime Minister Netanyahu kept vacillating and putting off the natural right leaning parties and particularly Jewish Home as I can guarantee you that Naftali Bennett’s name figured prominently in President Obama’s demands for people he refused to find comfort should they be included in any coalition.

 

Even by American standards the interference by President Obama and his Administration in Israeli politics, at levels even exceeds those of President Clinton or anybody before him. The interference by providing election assistance had been done previously most notably by President Clinton and Democrat Party assistance for the Labor Party in Israel has gotten to the point I’m waiting for them to have joint conventions in the future, especially if an Israeli election can be scheduled to fit in relative close proximity to an American elections cycle, preferably a Presidential election. I can see it now, the newly nominated Democrat President with the newly chosen Vice Presidential candidate to his right and the selected Labor Party leader on his left with all three with their hands held together raised in a sign of might and unity of purpose. Why not, is that any sillier than an election group in Israel using the slogan ‘Change the Government’ and ‘Anybody but Bibi’? The only thing they were missing was the Hope for the Future so that could be abbreviated and they would have the proven formula, ‘Hope and Change’. Some slogans are too good to let die. First President Obama launched the campaign to unseat Bibi and the Israelis chose Netanyahu despite being informed what was good for them if they understood what the President of the United States demanded of them. Apparently President Obama missed the parts in the Bible when he learned all about Christianity from the Pastor Reverend Wright whose sermons he never heard, probably had snuck out for a smoke break and missed every last sermon, but he missed the part where the Jewish people were defined by their greatest of leaders, Moses, as well as the all-powerful One when they would discuss the difficulties and presented the main excuse that these were a stiff necked and stubborn people. If Moses and the L0rd found the Jews at their most timid to be frustratingly stubborn and stiff-necked, what did they expect of us today? Demand we vote as instructed by our what? Betters, was that the word? No, I don’t think so, we have our own ideas and will decide what is best for us and not somebody who had appeared all too ready to throw us under the bus for any reason and especially if it would grant him a second Nobel Peace Prize, as that is the only thing President Obama sees Israel as being good for, permitting herself to be splayed out before her enemies and lain low for easy conquest just so before the Middle East explodes into a thousand shards as everything is broken being cut by the jagged and sharp edges of the stone known as Jerusalem and the people who hold her as their only capital city for the last three thousand years and then some. The lesson President Obama missed was on Zechariah 12:2-3 where it is said, “I am going to make Jerusalem a cup that sends all the surrounding peoples reeling. Judah will be besieged as well as Jerusalem. On that day, when all the nations of the earth are gathered against her, I will make Jerusalem an immovable rock for all the nations. All who try to move it will injure themselves.” What might this have told President Obama about trying to influence the Israelis through word or threat? Oh, most likely that we as a people have been threatened by the worst and the best of them and somehow we always seemed to find our own path and walked merrily listening to our own drummer and dancing to our own beat come what consequences may come.

 

Apparently Bibi has finally chosen to fear the threats of the people of Israel above the threats from the ditherer in Washington who has grown so infatuated with his own voice that he still believes it can move mountains and control the minds of the weak and weary. For far too long the leadership of Israel has been too weary and acted too weak when facing this menace when the best route was to stand firm and let it rip and give as good as you got. The funny thing is despite the demands and pressures; President Obama only respects one thing, strength. As a community organizer he knows how to argue from a position of strength which has always meant his position when it was backed by a group ready to fight for what they desired. President Obama, as an effective community organizer would only take on the causes for which he had a ready and willing populace group which he could call out to do whatever was required to gain those demands which had been presented in their name. This is what was behind his threat that he “has a pen and a phone and knows how to use both.” The pen was the obvious reference to Executive Orders and the phone was presumably connected to a group in the society which he knew supported everything he does and would gladly show up wherever needed and provide the agitation required to put the correct measure of force behind the cause, whatever that cause might be. The pen does not work in Israel and who could President Obama call out to protest beyond those who are already out there protesting, thus his two biggest weapons are nullified. That leaves the only single threat which might appear to hold water and be a meaningful threat, the threat to no longer protect Israel before resolutions brought before the Security Council, so exactly how vulnerable and what are the probabilities and realities about the threat itself?

 

The first thing we must ascertain is exactly how far might President Obama go in leaving Israel vulnerable to United Nations whims and fancies? Whatever is going to happen in the General Assembly is going to happen and usually against Israel and there is little anybody is willing or even could do even if willing, that is a dead zone for Israel. Then there is the Human Rights Commission which as part of its own laws and procedures is required to denounce Israel at the start of every session whether there is anything Israel related even to review, it does not matter as the bylaws require the denunciation of Israel before the session is permitted to continue. To point out that the Human Rights Commission is probably the only place outside of UNRWA where Israel is held in such unpopular esteem, makes it another lost cause. The rest of the commissions, agencies and organizations attached or circulating the United Nations all have their preconceived levels of disdain for Israel and her people and the reverse is surprisingly not necessarily a given, most Israelis have little care about the numerous appendages of the United Nations. So, thus far the threat by the United States President to stop support for Israel has absolutely no effective change as these areas are already universally against Israel by a large majority. That leaves the Security Council which is the one place where the veto power of the United States matters just as do the veto powers of Great Britain, France, Russia and China. So, it is possible that Israel might find another benefactor to provide the veto coverage needed. But would that be necessary? It would if Israel was concerned with everything the Security Council produced. There are basically three classes of resolution which the Security Council can issue, the Chapter Seven binding resolutions, the Chapter Six nonbinding resolutions and referential resolution which carry advisory weight and will likely receive more weight once should the General Assembly also validate it but still it would not be binding. The nonbinding resolutions passed by the Security Council are still heavy weight resolution and often carry the threat of being voted on again as a Chapter Seven binding resolution, and that brings us to the crux of the matter, Chapter Seven Resolutions. We have to face it that even if the President instructs Ambassador Samantha Power not to veto everything else, Israel will survive even if we may suffer a slight rash. But would President Obama instruct Ambassador Power to not veto a Chapter Seven binding resolution? Such a move allowing such a resolution to take effect requiring Israel to comply or face potential military force from the United Nations, and do not weigh such lightly as it was just one such Chapter Seven resolution which led to the Korean War, would President Obama, the Ditherer in Chief, actually deploy United States military personnel against Israel in order to back a Chapter Seven edict? To quote President Obama, “I was elected to end wars, not to start them.” It is our contention that the threat of not protecting Israel from every vote in the United Nations Security Council will only apply to Chapter Six nonbinding resolutions and not Chapter Seven where the United States veto would be utilized as it would not be prudent to set up a situation where United States military would enter into a shooting war against Israel. So, once again we see that President Obama has made a threat which costs him nothing and in the instance where his words would also require action by the President and the armed services, then the likelihood is that he will crumble before the pressures. Yes, Bibi made the correct choice to call the President’s bluff and listen to the Israeli people and forge a right leaning coalition. Now let us hope that Prime Minister Netanyahu can muster the stomach for some real pushback and he can start actually building and not pretending to support additional residences in Judea and Samaria. Also, start every cabinet meeting with a reading of the San Remo Conference Treaty as it is fairly short and Israel needs to get the reality of how much land we have surrendered which the Sinai Peninsula was a coequal part compared with Jordan which was built on lands set aside for the State of the Jews. Below is a copy of the San Remo Conference Agreement. Read it and remember it as it is a great place to start in communicating to every corner of the world who claim that Israel and the land promised to the Jewish People after World War I which had nothing to do with the Holocaust which had yet to occur and had everything to do with reinstating the Jewish People in their homelands. The restitution of the Jewish homelands was seen as a good and necessary step to start to make amends for the evils perpetrated against the Jews throughout the world and it was reasoned that restoring them to their Biblical Lands would make a great start. Let us press for this start to be made good and end the perfidy perpetrated today by the same governments under presumably more civilized leadership than in all of history yet they will require great amounts of jolts from the past, a retelling of the worlds they themselves transcribed at San Remo and made a solemn oath which must be attended to before the past no longer has meaning as history is no longer a vestige within the curricula where history has been replaced with lessons in proper acceptance of the new tolerance and acceptance which has little time or regard for promises past. Those who care not for the past will soon find themselves in the midst of it as it has a way of sneaking up on us with great stealth followed by a roar as it swallows the present whole immersing all in the retelling of tales of history ignored.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

 

San Remo Conference Agreement


It was agreed –
(a) To accept the terms of the Mandates Article as given below with reference to Palestine, on the understanding that there was inserted in the proces-verbal an undertaking by the Mandatory Power that this would not involve the surrender of the rights hitherto enjoyed by the non-Jewish communities in Palestine; this undertaking not to refer to the question of the religious protectorate of France, which had been settled earlier in the previous afternoon by the undertaking given by the French Government that they recognized this protectorate as being at an end.
(b) That the terms of the Mandates Article should be as follows:
The High Contracting Parties agree that Syria and Mesopotamia shall, in accordance with the fourth paragraph of Article 22, Part I (Covenant of the League of Nations), be provisionally recognized as independent States, subject to the rendering of administrative advice and assistance by a mandatory until such time as they are able to stand alone. The boundaries of the said States will be determined, and the selection of the Mandatories made, by the Principal Allied Powers.
The High Contracting Parties agree to entrust, by application of the provisions of Article 22, the administration of Palestine, within such boundaries as may be determined by the Principal Allied Powers, to a Mandatory, to be selected by the said Powers. The Mandatory will be responsible for putting into effect the declaration originally made on November 8, 1917, by the British Government, and adopted by the other Allied Powers, in favour of the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine, or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country.

April 26, 2015

Israel Will Not Protect the World Alone This Time

Filed under: Act of War,Administration,Advanced Weapions Systems,Air Strike,Amalekites,American People Voice Opinion,Anti Missile System,Apocalypse,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Armed Services,Army,Ayatollah,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,Ayatollahs,Breakout Point,Civilization,Command,Compulsary Service,Conflict Avoidnce,Coverup,Ditherer in Chief,Domestic NGOs,Egyptian Military,EMP Device,European Pressure,Executive Order,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,IAF,ICBM,IDF,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,Iraqi Military,IRGC,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jihad,Jimmy Carter,John Kerry,Leftist Pressures,Military,Military Intervention,Mohammad Mosaddegh,Mohammad-Rezā Pahlavi,Muslim World,Non Binding Resolution,North Korean Pressure,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Proliferation,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,P5+1,Permanenet Members,Persia,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,Promised Land,Rebel Forces,Russian Pressure,Saddam Hussein,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Security Council,State Department,Supreme Leader,Syria,Taqiyya,Threat of War,Twelvers,United Arab Republic,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,Uranium Enrichment,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Without Zionism or America — qwertster @ 2:39 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

Back when Saddam Hussein was actually developing nuclear weapons material and was having the perfect nuclear reactor being built by profiteering interests from France and had bunkers constructed by an equally monetarily enterprising German company and believing they had the world fooled as the Europeans were more concerned by their bottom line and the United States was apparently blithely ignorant of the Iraqi game; so the weight of dispatching the central items of what was potentially the Iraqi nuclear weapons development central point, the reactor was relegated to the Israelis acting alone. The Iraqis were not using the technically challenging uranium differentiation system, which in the early 1980s was a rather daunting challenge, and instead was opting for a plutonium producing reactor. This left the Iraqis with what was apparently an unfettered romp to develop nuclear weapons while appearing to remain compliant to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) of which Iraq was a signatory. And so it remained until the morning of June 7, 1981 when the Israelis launched “Operation Opera” to destroy the French built and almost ready to have its nuclear fuel rods installed Osirak Reactor which was capable of producing weapons grade plutonium. The entirety of the Western world opposed any attack on the reactor or accompanying buildings as the Europeans relied on Iraqi oil or had too numerous business dealings and other profitable relations which may have faced difficulties or potential cancellation should Iraq suspect the Western powers in any way supported any such attack. Even within Israel there were the expected and usual detractors against Israeli actions including the then leader of the opposition Labor Party Shimon Peres, Yitzchak Shamir predicting extreme and non-survivable reactions and backlash as well as those in the cabinet who also opposed any attack for various reasons chief of which was the effect it would have on the peace treaty with Egypt. Prime Minister Menachem Begin still pushed the idea for an intervention to destroy the reactor forward in hopes the Cabinet would eventually see there was no other viable choice. There were logistics problems which had to be overcome such as but not limited to removing external fuel tanks on the F-16s in order to equip them with the heavy munitions necessary for the attack, assign F-15s to guard the bombers to, from and during the attack in case of Iraqi countermeasures, as well as training the pilots to fly on the floor to avoid being detected by any Arab radar and choosing a route which would also minimize detection. The final trigger which finally won approval for the attack was the knowledge that the fuel rods had been prepared for shipment from France to Iraq which if installed would have resulted in a radioactive cloud from any assault making the vote a now or never choice. This changed the critical opposition to now support the attack. The original attack date was set but it became necessary to call off the attack and reschedule it for the next month. Fortunately this setback still permitted the attack to be set before the fuel rods were to be installed in the reactor or even be stored in close proximity to the reactor buildings themselves. The Osirak Reactor was destroyed and Israel faced censure at the United Nations with President Ronald Reagan refusing to use the American veto to protect the Israelis as he too felt betrayed by their attack without first having received his approval, something he had all but assured was not forthcoming even had it been sought. The remainder including the Western world’s great reliefs and their acclamations and thanks, even if belated, that they were not facing a nuclear armed Saddam Hussein in either the first or second Gulf Wars.

 

Looking at Iran one might be tempted to claim that it seems like, if we may be permitted to steal a quotation from Yogi Berra, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” This time it’s not Iraq but their neighbor, Iran. It is not Saddam Hussein but rather the Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. This time it is a Shiite ruler not a Sunni ruler though it is once again an adversary of Saudi Arabia. And just like the last time, the Saudis Royals are not about to launch any attack, especially not on their own and highly unlikely they would ally with and accompany the Israelis. The United States is once again against any such attack and threatens to withhold any usual protection at the United Nations Security Council should Israel choose to ignore their opposition and attack anyways. The Europeans are once again all after the rewards of trade agreements they are already salivating over as the United States takes the brunt of any criticisms for the near obvious bad deal of a lifetime as President Obama is willing to take the scorns and suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune if it permits him to construct a new kingdom in the Middle East to replace the old alliances with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel with one where the United States and Iran share the hegemony with Iran the hegemony taking care of the Middle East and the United States free to attend to other concerns. This alliance comes complete with other supporting characters including but not limited to Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and potentially Yemen and whichever other nations the ever slowly devouring appetite of the Ayatollahs set their attentions towards. Additionally, the Russians are playing the role of the Soviet Union in the Middle East and beyond with an unsurprising echo of the Soviet past with the Russian President being Colonel Putin formerly of KGB fame and China will be China taking advantage of any situation the world inadvertently creates, like the need by Iran for an outlet to sell their crude oil. Thus the world is hurling full steam ahead towards a nuclear armed nation which remains the inheritors of the Persian Empire’s proud historic past with all of its attitude of empire which they traded in order to name themselves after the Nazi master race Aryan, or Iran in Farsi, and add to such the trait and heritage of the potentially suicidal belief patterns of Shia Islam and these nations central to permitting this nuclear arming of such a nation all claim Israel has lost it and gone over the deep end when they claim that perhaps a second look might be a good idea.

 

There have been more than just a few articles which point to the fact that the world is relying on good old Israel to ride over the hill and rescue the world from itself once more. They even point to the fact that there exist a number of Sunni nations including but not limited to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States which would potentially offer their assistance or at least give spiritual support. There is some bad news for the world; it is going to take a whole different level of support if they really expect Israel to suffer the ramifications of and the promised denunciations, trade embargoes, United Nations sanctions, and other barbs and mistreatments in size and scope potentially previously unimagined. Israel has stated that they are quite capable and up to the task of striking and setting the Iranian nuclear program back potentially months or even for over a year or even two years. That is not the question; the question is whether it is worth the severe and unprecedented ramifications that is the main concern for Israel. Israel has to weigh whether it will be beyond her ability to guarantee that Iran has too much to lose by using their nuclear weapons once they develop and build them, whether that be in ten months or the ten years that President Obama promises, making it thus worth the price which would be guaranteed in the retaliatory strikes by Hamas, Hezballah, Syria, IRGC and a guarantee that Iran will use their first nuclear weapon on Tel Aviv no matter what the cost even should it require using it from aboard a ship making a suicide run for the shoreline beaches of Tel Aviv. The consequences of assaulting the Iranian nuclear sites are well known to Israel as well as her neighbors in the Middle East. These are the very same consequences which have intimidated the other nations who, like Israel, will be threatened by a nuclear weapon armed Iran. It is this threat which may well lead to a nuclear weapons arms race throughout the Middle East and North Africa with Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and even the Gulf States leading the way. This too must also be included in the Israeli calculus. The one thing heard repeatedly is that there is no threats which Israel could use to deter the Iranians from carrying out their threat to launch a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv once they have sufficient a store of nuclear weapons to follow up with further strike should Israel retaliate.

 

That leads us to the question of exactly what threats could Israel utilize to prevent a nuclear attack by the Iranians once they are sufficiently armed. The unfortunate, or potentially advantageously, truth about the threats which would be most effective on Iran is that they would also be very disconcerting and threatening to the rest of the Muslim world. It is obvious that should Iran drop any nuclear weapons anywhere, or everywhere, across Israel that Israel would strike every population center across all of Iran, Syria, Shiite Iraq and Hezballah portions of Lebanon and thus these would not be sufficient deterrence to prevent an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel. But then peer pressure may be exactly what might be required to pressure Iran from striking at Israel. The first targets Israel needs to assure Iran will be targeted beyond her borders should be every holy shrine and city in all of Shia Islam. Going beyond this point would be potentially dangerous for Israel as it would also potentially push what might be uncomfortable allies throughout the Muslim world forcing them to become an ally with Iran against Israel. Still, some concern might be given to such targets as to the two cities which Iran has placed as their most prized desire in all the world and the reason that Iran and Saudi Arabia are so set against one another, Mecca and Medina. These are the most prized cities in all of Islam and before World War I were under the care of the Hashemite Royal Family. That changed with the fall of the Ottoman Empire when the Saudi Royal Family forcibly took control of Mecca and Medina. This was the reason behind the British promise to grant the Hashemite family a kingdom in exchange for their assistance during World War I and thus Jordan today ruled by a Hashemite King. Such a threat though of destroying Mecca and Medina would be a counter attack as a last ditch response after a disastrous attack which had likely destroyed the majority of the Israeli population and economic centers simply by striking central Tel Aviv with any nuclear weapon. With such damage already inflicted on Israel there would be so little left to risk as Israel as a functioning nation would be in serious jeopardy. In a perfect world Israel would not be facing such a predicament but then again in a perfect world President Jimmy Carter would not have given the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini the support in dethroning the Shah and thus the Ayatollahs would not be in power in Iran. But in a really perfect world the United States would not have overthrown the democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh placing the Shāh Mohammad-Rezā Pahlavi into power reestablishing the Iranian Royal family. Perfect worlds can be so confusing and lead to a tangled web that takes some serious untangling. I guess the world would never be a perfect place and then who knows if we would actually really like what a perfect world might give us as result, who knows.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Next Page »

The Rubric Theme. Blog at WordPress.com.