Beyond the Cusp

February 15, 2016

Radically Changing Power Structures in the Middle East

 

First allow us to note the passing of a great Constitutional scholar and jurist, Antonin Scalia, who was seventy-nine and had served for twenty-nine years on the Supreme Court. There will be a ton of second guessing on whom exactly President Obama will pick to replace the conservative, Constitutional scholar but the one thing we would like to put forth is they will mostly be wrong. President Obama’s previous choices of Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan surprised almost all in his previous Supreme Court appointments. Our guess is of a more general nature as we believe his choice will be an academic who shares the leftist view of a living and ever mutating Constitution in which all forms of new and existing rights can be found to be implied if only the founders had the wisdom of the leftists of today. Whoever President Obama chooses will have the effect of changing the nature and status of the Supreme Court likely for a long while into the future. President Obama has had the rare opportunity to leave an indelible mark on the Supreme Court as he has had the opportunity of appointing one third of the current members sitting on the Supreme Court. This will be the true legacy next to Obamacare and the initiating the accepting of tens if not hundreds of thousands of Syrian and other Middle Eastern “refugees” and potentially resulting in millions by the time the entire story becomes known. One can hope to be pleasantly surprised that the President’s appointment turns out to be more of a purist when interpreting the Constitution as being appointed to the Supreme Court has shown some strange and unexpected results as people take the honor to heart and have the importance of the position lay heavily on their minds and their direction of thoughts on the exact definition of protect and defend the Constitution will inevitably mean to them. We can only hope for a discerning and wise person who weighs all the ramification of their decisions.

 

 

Antonin Scalia Supreme Court Judge 79 years old, 29 years on Supreme Court

Antonin Scalia Supreme Court Judge
79 years old, 29 years on Supreme Court

 

 

Everyone has, including us to some extent, expressed their feelings on the path to nuclear weapons power that Iran received in the Iran Nuclear Agreement 7/14/2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and the inevitable ways it will change the entire makeup and distribution of power across the Middle East and many, again including us, have attempted to predict what the wholesale introduction of nuclear weaponry across the Middle East and potentially slowly seeping across Norther Africa and whether it will make Nuclear Armageddon more likely or usher in an understanding of the new and ruinous implications of starting a war might cause to bring as the outcome. Of course if anyone was looking to bring the greatest possible turmoil, chaos, death and destruction on the world as a whole and not care about the consequences because that turmoil, chaos, death and destruction actually was their only goal, then the nuclearization of the Middle East and beyond is exactly what the doctor ordered. A nuclear armed apocalyptic maniac is the exact formula to a future which could act to set human development back ten centuries or potentially lead to the next round of massive mutations across all surviving life forms eventually leading to the next apex predator to rise to the top of the food chain and with any luck also me closer to human development than the simple brute power of T-rex had attained before they and their species being brought down by an assumed impact wiping clean the slate of development leading to mankind’s rise to eventual dominance.

 

There have been other changes which are probably not as dire or noticeable as yet on how these developments will play out. The biggest has been the introduction of highly effective antiaircraft missile batteries at both ends of the Middle East with Iran to soon have delivery of the Russian S-300 antiaircraft batteries to Iran and the recent deployment by the Russian forces defending their port and the Alawites in the area including Bashir al-Assad of the S-400 antiaircraft batteries. These systems render an air assault or targeting within their range far riskier and problematic. Further, with Russians manning the S-400 antiaircraft batteries in Syria, they are far less likely to be shut-down as was the entirety of the Syrian air defense network by the Israelis when they bombed the nuclear development complex facility in September 6, 2007. These changes in the balance of power brought by these changes are going to be difficult to discern as the variables are significant. One also has to add two other important notes to this volatile mix of conditions, one from the Middle East and the other affecting the Middle East.

 

 

Russian S-400 Antiaircraft Batteries Now Stationed Around Latakia, Syria Placing Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport Easily Within Range for Interception

Russian S-400 Antiaircraft Batteries
Now Stationed Around Latakia, Syria
Placing Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport
Easily Within Range for Interception

 

 

The first is the affect that North Korea may play onto the Middle East puzzle as well as the future of the United States. As we and numerous others have pointed out is the fact that both Iran and North Korea have practiced and actually placed satellites into low earth orbits which have polar orbits rather than an equatorial orbit which makes them pass over the United States mainland alternately from the direct north and from the direct south. The northern approach is not that important as it would pass over the teeth of the United States NORAD and other defensive systems placed to intercept any Russian attack during the cold war and thus would be facing formidable defensive structures. The interesting passes are the one approaching from the south, particularly those passing over Mexico or the Gulf of Mexico and crossing over the United States anywhere from New Mexico to Arizona where the entirety of the United States monitoring systems have one of the largest blind-spots and thus vulnerability. Both Iran and North Korea have practiced what is understood by military strategists to be the perfect height and orbit for delivering an EMP, or Super EMP which is the latest craze, device to explode near the center of the United States and southern Canada taking out the entirety of the North American power grid. The resultant damages to the transformers and other high voltage system hardware as well as destroying virtually all of the software run control systems would result in as high as ninety-five percent civilian deaths in the first decade with the largest loss being at the front end two years having the greatest impact.

 

Such an assault could effectively take out almost all of the ground based systems the United States would be reliant on for its defense from invasion or to retaliate against their attacker. This would not mean the perpetrators of such an assault would be free and clear of retribution raining down on their heads as the United States has a large enough contingent of its forces located around the globe that United States power projection would remain credible. The large nuclear missile carrying submarines, often called Boomers (hey, we do not make up these names, honest) would still carry in their tubes sufficient nuclear strike capabilities of destroying virtually the entirety of human existence globally and definitely could remove the populations of North Korea and Iran without losing their critical and definitive threat against any others planning in taking advantage of the problems back home caused by such an attack. Where this would bring little solace to the Americans facing brutish conditions as their entire food and other supply networks would have been destroyed in such an attack, this deterrent power of the United States nuclear powered Navy that eventually the United States would return onto the world stage meaner and leaner but even more determined to take vengeance unto which the world has never known. The last part in this section of the puzzle is that Iran and North Korea have had a high level of cooperation in nuclear development and rocket/missile technology. Keeping such in mind, the recent test carried out by North Korea of a hydrogen powered nuclear device now believed to be, here comes the new buzzword, Super EMP device capable of on detonation generating a series of EMP Gama-radiation waves which could destroy if detonated over Kansas City or St Louis or anywhere between which would be sufficiently potent to effect sensitive electronics in San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Washington D. C., Norfolk Naval Base, Andrews Airforce Base, the Pentagon (except for its shielded emergency generators), Richmond on down to Atlanta, Georgia. That would include the East and West Coasts leaving potentially the Coronado Naval Base and Marine Base intact and slight possibility of not destroying the Bremerton shipyards. Still, such a wide ranging area of destruction of electronic devices would be devastating and would be felt world-wide as there would be other ramifications such as GPS satellites not receiving update information largely controlled by the United States and a loss of large sectors of the Internet, phone networks and any other functions which pass through the United States communications hubs which carry the largest volume of the entire world’s communications. This would have far reaching effects many of which are irreplaceable and even unpredicted. The best case scenario, and only best case scenario, is that such an attack never occurs; but with a child-like egotistical and maniacal megalomaniac in charge in North Korea who believes himself one of the most powerful people ruling a giant amongst nations who murders any general or even family member who attempts to implant even the slightest glimmer of reality into the equation being executed on the spot, who knows? Just think about the day, which might be today or tomorrow, when Kim Jung-un decides it is time to teach the United States a lesson. Just ponder that for a moment and then try to return to your normally scheduled day as such would never happen, would it? Adding the Iranian fanatical and suicidal Mullahs in Iran and have fun sleeping tonight, they do not really mean it when they claim to desire bringing chaos, turmoil, misery and a general state of conflagration worldwide just so their messiah the Twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, who will emerge from his hiding place down a well in Qom where he has been hiding since before the year 1000 AD. You cannot make this stuff up. So there is that threat and they share technology and many believe the tested nuclear Super EMP device tested by North Korea recently was actually an Iranian design and was carried out by North Korea for the Iranians so they would not break their treaty quite yet.

 

 

North Korean President for Life Kim Jung-Un Signaling that He’s Number One!

North Korean President for Life Kim Jung-Un
Signaling that He’s Number One!

 

 

The other side of the coin is Israel. The Israelis have not been taking all these developments as fait accompli but instead have been working, one could say feverishly, on their layered missile and aircraft defense systems. The world was given a demonstration of the effectiveness of the Iron Dome on locally launched missiles, mortars and rockets during the last Gaza war. Since then there have been further upgrades made possible by the data acquired during that conflict. Many of the upgrades were software but the other was a new interceptor which would improve the accuracy and lethality of the system, a system which already proved to be over ninety percent accurate in its initial deployment during the last Gaza Hamas war. Israel also has a multi-layered system of interceptor which would make interception possible on an ICBM or Continental Ballistic Missile such as what Iran would need to use if launching from within their borders. Should they launch from Syria or Lebanon then the intercept would be performed by a faster reacting system such as the Iron Dome or other slightly more encompassing system. The kind of layered system which will be required to keep Israel and the Israeli population safe from any device with the emphasis on early detection and removal of threats on their ascendant prefecture over the downward flight as it is most often on the approach to target after apogee that missile systems deploy avoidance technologies. While the Israeli nuclear capability has been pondered and guessed at, it is still not 100% proven if such systems exist or where and how they would be stored and/or deployed, what delivery systems exist and whether these systems kept in hardened bunkers atop ICBM and Continental Ballistic Missiles or if they exist, are they simply bombs requiring aircraft to fly the mission to deliver these weapons which may not even exist. As we covered recently on February 13, 2016 in our article What Israel Must Learn from President Obama concerning, amongst other items of importance, the F-35 JSF and its serious limitations and no freedom of action when using these fifth generation fighters that they make second guessing any nation relying on these systems to come under United States control potentially at the most critical of moments. Further, the fact that an EMP device would necessarily affect the very support systems which would allow the F-35 JSF to deploy would be destroyed or isolated such that they could not release the aircraft when most needed, the F-35 JSF would become just so much advanced electronics and composites composited dead on the runway. There are a number of other links to other articles both ours and outside corroborative articles all worth a quick read as they lay out much of the thought patterns since even before 2010 when we first finally got around to addressing the next generation of aircraft which are going to become a necessity for air defense at close range and possibly further missions run from a control aircraft. Perhaps another article is due on such future systems; we will try to look into such but no absolute promises on when.

 

 

The Mouse that Roared A comedy to lift the spirits

The Mouse that Roared
A comedy to lift the spirits

 

 

As is noticeable the world is changing, the sides are lining up and one errant move could force ramifications too dire to face but face them we must; otherwise, they could occur and have no mitigating systems in place to avoid hostilities falling into place where one act creates another leading to a more vigorous act which forces a full deployment and the next thing you know the Grand Duchess Gloriana XII of the Duchy of Grand Fenwick will order Prime Minister Count Rupert of Mountjoy to deploy their finest archers to voyage across the seas and attack to defend the honor of the wines of the Duchy of Grand Fenwick from a California cheap imitation. The troops under Field Marshal Tully Bascombe, a recent promotion of sorts, assault the United States and , well, you will need to rent the movie “The Mouse that Roared” and enjoy Peter Sellers at his hysterical best, well, next to the Pink Panther. Unfortunately the world today is almost as insane as the Mouse that Roared but all too dangerous to really joke about, but we must keep a balance and our sanity so some light hearted entertainment might mitigate the sense of dread, well, for around an hour and a half. Think we will make some buttered popcorn and watch a movie, later.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

January 25, 2016

A World Spinning Out-of-Control

 

The first area the world is having difficulties is nothing new as finances and resources are always at a critical point somewhere, but when it spreads wide and wild, then there is a problem. The problems are about to get really tightly strung as the United States cash flow valves are about to be made even tighter until mid to late August when the money will be released to give the economy as good a feel and appearance that people will believe that President Obama’s promises to repair the economy have finally begun to work. This will be reflected in a general media message that all is finally well in the world and the United States is healthy and ready to take on the comeback of the millennia. Nothing could be further from the truth but if the economic weapon is to be taken off the table making the push to place Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton in the White House will begin in earnest. What about the e-mail scandal and the leaking of classified information and her using her own private server to remain out of sight her dealings and what about those dealings and then there is the pay-to-play cashing in on her Secretary of State position by the Clinton Foundation personal slush-fund and so much more it is impossible to keep up with it. These e-mail revelations will all be settled and forgotten by the mid-September push where the world will be all Hillary all the time should her coronation go off as planned at the democrat National Convention, which means Bernie Sanders is the court jester out to entertain the masses while all the Hillary loose ends are tied up nice and neat; then Bernie will disappear and drop out for personal and family needs. Of course he will release his support and give Hillary all his delegates at the second round unless the most unbelievable happens and Bernie Sanders becomes the man and the Democrats will dump on Hillary again and the Clintons will have it out once and for all when Bill tells Hillary that it just was never meant to be. Look for a very vindictive and messy divorce to soon follow as Bill will have not been able to provide the necessary support to assist Hillary when it became her turn. Of course it could never have been that Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton was such a set of damaged goods that anything short a miracle could have ever placed her in the White House as the President. Perhaps the truth lies in that she was better as an ornament assisting Bill and quietly out of the actual scene than she would ever be the ‘One’ herself.

 

Meanwhile American consumerism has yet to recoil from the 2007-8 recession and the United States has been languishing in the shadows making a very slow recovery on the jobs market. This has put a serious damper on American consumerism, the buying power on which much of the world economy sits waiting to serve up the goods for Americans to buy. The European one currency disaster is slowly being repaired by using Germany’s wealth and productivity to provide universal monetary relief making the European Union a full circle system where Germany pays the less affluent countries to pay off their debts to Germany and assist their less than ambitious workforce to at least take welfare and spend it on German goods. This has created a system where Germany produces the goods that the rest of Europe consume with well over half the population using German wealth to buy in, so to speak. This is a model of an economic perpetual motion and cash flow machine. The problem is friction and drag which will eventually cause all the funds to not quite reach their theoretical place and be utilized to purchase German goods. People will use a fair share of the German largesse on feeding themselves and not living on German beer, or is it bier? The governments dispensing this cash flow fungible funds will take their cut as government are known to do and other diversions prevent this perpetual cash flow machine to rather rapidly grind to a halt, then what? This was where American consumerism was to kick in and cover the difference and continue to push cash into the machine to overcome the friction and inertial problems but that did not occur right on time. Then there was supposed to be this new middle class in China ready, willing and wealthy enough to re-prime the European economic model. Another ‘no-go’ as they are spending their cash to prop up much of the Asia markets and doing that slightly better than the Germans, but that too is reaching its tipping point as China’s buying power turned out to be overrated and Japan and Australia were not capable of filling that gap so they were also turning to the American consumerism machine which remained relatively idle for reasons the rest of the world could not understand. The reinvestment in American consumerism is scheduled for lift-off later this year in order to place the next media coronation on-track to place Hillary Clinton back in the White House. Expect Bill to play his role perfectly as the supportive spouse as he provides the necessary cash for her campaign while attempting to resist any temptations which would be a true and dramatic scandal.

 

Then we come to the rest of the world. Saudi Arabia is sitting on that valve with the exception of Iran and the one-hundred-billion-plus bribery to permit them to sit in a really plush hotel suite and dictate their dream nuclear treaty and for President Obama and Secretary of State John François, did we mention he was French, Kerry to appear to be writing and crafting a cleverly devious set of rules and stipulations which would prevent Iran from building any nuclear weapons, especially deliverable ones as they also were writing a prevention to test missiles and related technologies into the treaty. They were terrible actors or at least other than the carefree unconcerned President completely trusting his competent yet bumbling Chief Inspector Jacques Clouseau of the French Sûreté Kerry to bring in the play of the century and deliver the ultimately understated but effective treaty. The entire act failed as none of the parts were played by the late Peter Sellers and thus masterly failing and flailing to the best solution through erroneous thinking always overcorrecting just enough to get the criminal in the end was not pulled off. The Iranians were playing three dimensional chess, or possible a number of dimensions higher, while Obama and Kerry were playing the ever so complicated game of Noughts and Crosses, how so ever European of them. The nuclear path to Armageddon arranged, paved, and decorated by the United States gift wrapped and delivered to the Iranians set Saudi Arabia even further on edge. The Saudis are playing their one card and playing it to its utmost capacity pumping oil from the ground at a pace previously unheard of to crash the market and push prices down as far as it can go.

 

This has had effects all desired and planned by the Saudi government, aka the Saudi Royal Family. The low prices means that the lesser grade or difficult to extract barrels of oil produce little if any profit and even losses for certain lower grade oils less desirable than the light, sweet oil of the Saudi oil field production. This was intended to bankrupt the Iranian oil market which is likely not producing the cash flow which makes Iran operate but fear not, the Obama administration has taken care of that with the unfreezing of over one-hundred-billion-dollar present right into the Mullahs of Iran’s pockets which will neatly finance their missile and nuclear research and production placing their nuclear and missile programs on the fast track for a five year target date which may be even less in the distance than all except soon to be out of office and thus not blamed for what happens next. The low price of oil is also killing any additional fracking or other fairly expensive to initiate oil fields exploration thus slowing the United States ability to develop these technologies until further notice. The final effect is against Iran’s favorite former and soon to be again super power, Russia. Russia is getting next to nothing in profits from oil sales and is likely depending on vodka profits, a real let down.

 

The Russian government is next to broke but this is where gifts from President Obama roll in. Remember that hundred-billion-plus monetary reward the United States is about to turn over to Iran? Well, guess what they are going to do with a goodly amount of that largesse? That’s the ticket; we knew you would figure that out, of course they will be buying tons of military equipment from Russia. Expect the Iranians to repaint those units tan, beige and brown and then claim they designed and manufactured them within the first year. These military sales may end up being the life’s blood, the mother’s milk for the Russian economic engine. So, Iran gets advanced military equipment and will reverse engineer it or also buy production rights and for the Russians to build the factories as well to produce the missiles and other equipment in Iran. This will provide Russia with the funds to operate for a decade longer providing military goods to Iran. What could conceivably go awry?

 

Where does all of this end? Who knows? Sure, we’ll take a stab at it. Even the military equipment will not save Russia from their adventurisms. Propping up Bashir al-Assad is an expensive business and gets all the worse with every downed aircraft, exploded tank and even every bullet shot and supplies shipped to Syria all costs but things could be worse. Turkey is a wary acquaintance with a love-hate relationship with Iran. Should Turkish-Iranian relation devolve back to animosity stages then Turkey might decide to push back closing the Bosphorus thus separating the Mediterranean Sea from the Black Sea and making the bulk of the Russian fleet all but useless. This would also mean resupplying the Russian units in Syria far more expensive as they would all need to go by air routes around Turkey. With the Russian economy still weak and near collapse, such additional expense would be just the impetus that Russia might require to take care of the Turkish problem and take the Bosphorus straights on both sides including Constantinople, well, returning Istanbul to its former name might be part of the plan, couldn’t it? This more than likely would result in an all-out war between Turkey and Russia which might not end with Turkey. The Russians would not even blink when it would come to also raking-in the Kurdish areas of Syria and Iraq taking the northern parts of Syria down as far as Aleppo. Where such aggressions might lead is a troubling thought. Russia, under Putin, might fabricate an insult or problem from the Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, Latvia, Estonia and many of the old nations, especially those in Central Asia, reestablishing the smaller and more vulnerable nations all in the name of protecting them from untold horrors threatening their futures. Now under the protection of Russia they need not spend anywhere near as much on their fears. It has all been crystalized down to one concern; the big brown ten-thousand-ton bear in the living room.

 

 

Ukraine Was Already a Conflict Spinning Out of Control and in at Least One Possible Future This Will Become a Picture of the Calm Before the Storm

Ukraine Was Already a Conflict Spinning Out of Control
and in at Least One Possible Future
This Will Become a Picture of the Calm Before the Storm

 

 

The hard truth is financial matters on a global scale are similar to the financial situation in Europe right before World War I. Far Eastern Asia such as China was not one of the main conditions as their economy was not producing great amounts of wealth and thus was not part of the purchasing consumer world. Russia was faltering as the Czars were overthrown and the democratic first elected governance was unable to instantly produce a functioning and burgeoning economy such as had been witnessed in the booming economies right after the turn of the century in Europe and the United States. That brought on another governance and government change and the Communists took over and immediately cowed the people and put them under a harder and more forceful boot that the Czars had done, Europe was facing an economic stall as if somebody had mucked up the flow of money and without money flowing the economic sails drooped and became dead weight and unproductive. This was not as true in the United States but the American economy drove American business and the main imports by the United States were exotic fruits from South America and coffee from South America plus America was still growing though far slower than before. The Ottoman Empire, a long deceased empire staggering, was being largely propped up by the Europeans as nobody desired these lands which were tribal, primitive, unproductive deserts.

 

By every measurement, Europe was a tinderbox awaiting a single spark. The Ottoman Empire was an even more volatile place and the Balkans were the Balkans with the different religious conflicts, the tribal conflicts, largely inert economies, no overriding force of arms keeping the lid on and everything in a kind of lingering limbo slowly devolving into Machiavellian might makes right situation where many thought they had the might and were waiting for the time to be right. Well, the time never got around to being right as firing a gun with the tinderbox that was Europe was frightening enough, what followed was simply the explosion that set the world ablaze. On June 28, 1914, then, Archduke Franz Ferdinand and Sophie were touring Sarajevo in an open car, with surprisingly little security, when Serbian nationalist Nedjelko Cabrinovic threw a bomb at their car; it rolled off the back of the vehicle and wounded an officer and some bystanders. Later that day, on the way to visit the injured officer, the archduke’s procession took a wrong turn at the junction of Appel Quay and Franzjosefstrasse, where one of Cabrinovic fellow revolutionaries, 19-year-old Gavrilo Princip, laid waiting. Leaping towards the car the assassin fired into the rear seat shooting Archduke Franz Ferdinand and Sophie at point-blank range. The would-be martyr then attempted to turn the gun on himself but was wrestled to the ground and was basically saved by the arresting officers. The rest is history, no, really, history, literally and exactly World War I history. Nedjelko Cabrinovic was an anarchist and belonged to a subversive group who desired revolution called the Black Hand which was later connected to the Freemasons though there is little evidence we could find of an actual link. Any input either way would be appreciated and allow us to say thanks in advance. Meanwhile, our other conspirator, Gavrilo Princip, was raised in a home of Serbian Orthodox Christian parents though many conspiracy theorists claim because of his appearance he had to be a Jew, the actions of assassinating the Archduke and his wife just sealed the deal on his religious origins had to be Jewish despite all evidence to the contrary. Hopefully there will be no rulers of the Austria-Hungary Empire riding through the Balkans in an open car with a maximum speed of almost seventy miles per hour in the next few weeks having a bang up time at the expense of the downtrodden masses; that would just be tempting fate, now, wouldn’t it. Kidding aside, the world does seem to be picking up speed as if there may be a crashing event in the near future and that is not a happy thought. Really nothing to add to that except the list of national and international leaders vulnerable to some revolutionary anarchist or other form of fanatic is not that far-fetched and that is frightening.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 20, 2015

Why Iranian Nuclear Program Matters

 

President Obama would like the world to believe that there was a nuclear deal reached, signed, sealed and delivered to the Security Council and set into stone. There are a few problems with that story line, namely the Iran part of the deal. The part of the nuclear deal which is valid is that the sanctions have been lifted, Iran is back in the oil and pistachio business while European companies are tripping over each other in a race to sign deals with Iran and get their share of the billions which are going to be flowing when Iran receives the monies the United States is obligated to release from banks and investment accounts. The deal passed by the Security Council made the European and United States parts of the deal sealed and delivered and sent the Iranian part of the deal to Iran where it was graciously received and filed in the nearest wastebasket. Think back and try to remember the conflicting news reports from those final days of the Iran nuclear negotiations with the P5+1 consisting of Russia, China, Britain, France, the United States plus Germany and think back to the celebratory language and you might remember that the Obama White House and State Department were claiming one set of conditions, the Europeans had their version, Russia and China made very few statements with some in interviews with Western news interviews revealing that they were uncertain on a number of issues in Moscow and Beijing remaining mute and Iran claiming an entirely different interpretation and having doubts that the remaining difficulties would ever be bridged. I’m not sure those differences were ever ironed out nor does it appear that Iran has ever considered themselves to have made any promises to the Western World or the United Nations or anybody else. For the record, the Iranian parliament has never approved any deal that the United States or anybody else can honestly report and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has never signed any paperwork for a deal and thus Iran is not legally bound to anything just as the State Department freely admitted in a letter to Representative Mike (R-Kan.) of the House Intelligence Committee.

 

This admission simply echoes the actions by Tehran which has now made two test launches of ballistic missiles which would have definitively been forbidden by any deal admitted to exist by any of the Western Nations as well as the United Nations interpretations of the agreement, but nobody appears to be rearing up in reaction to these tests. There has been no ‘snapback’ of sanctions and the releasing of funds as theoretically agreed upon by western Nations in any version of a deal is proceeding along on schedule. Are we the only ones who seem concerned that there appears to be an agreement to free the dogs of nuclear ambitions in Iran while obliging the West to release the funds and remove all sanctions which might have proven to be an impediment and chaining the United States and European nations to back the Russian, Chinese and Iranian desires for business as usual as if there is not a care in the world? A quick check of news stories and it seems the most recent testing of another nuclear delivery capable continental ballistic missile, the most powerful yet and a decent sign that Iran is aiming for Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capabilities and is going at such capabilities with some vigor does concern any number of responsible adults. Unfortunately the closest the White House has come to a responsible adult has been United Nations Ambassador Samantha Power who stated at a Congressional hearing last week, “discussions are a form of U.N. action.” So, apparently the White House left Congress and themselves no actual control over sanctions and thus the possible ‘snapback’ is solely in the hands of the United Nations where such is an impossibility and even if the United States acted, theirs would necessarily be a whole new set of sanctions which are presumably forbidden by the presumed deal which is no deal and the White House would necessarily, as they have stated, veto any such sanctions. So as it currently sits, Iran will receive their $150 billion in unfrozen assets within the next six months, can test missiles to their hearts’ delight and all are to proceed as if there are sanctions on Iran when in reality the sanctions are on the Western Powers making sanctions near to impossible and now even the IAEA has officially surrendered before the Iranian games of guile as we reported recently in What the IAEA Closure of Their Iran Investigations Really Meant.

 

What has been successfully pulled off by deceptiveness, chicanery and outright lies is the freeing of Europe to return to their preferred business as usual and ignore the consequences, a similar aspect to their recent receipt of the first wave of ‘Syrian refugees’ and intent to make them legal citizens almost automatically which will grant them new visas from their new home nation and also grant them instant acceptance on the visa waiver program the United States shares with the European Union. What could be better as it has been made obvious that the vast majority of these ‘Syrian refugees’ are not Syrian, are not refugees, are not dirt poor losing everything in the civil war and Bashir al-Assad’s butchery and are intent on infiltrating the United States as they see Europe rightfully as all but conquered already. What we do have as the vast majority of these ‘Syrian refugees’ are military age single males with plenty of money and a penchant for rioting and causing disturbances and will very likely prove to be the tip of the spear with the only question being are they Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Taliban, or Iranian IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) trained infiltrators who have received some of the best training in sabotage and other disruptive acts and also master coordinators (community organizers on steroids). Whatever and whomever they are operating under, this sizeable sector of the ‘Syrian refugees’ who have poured into Europe, largely centered on Germany and the Scandinavian nations all of which have some of the best social services with the highest welfare payment structures in all of Europe, and with a fair share of the ‘Syrian refugees’ now headed to the final target on the list, the United Kingdom; their aims are becoming ever more clear, to bring Europe to its knees and then simply take charge of its remnants and turn it all over to whichever group manages to wrench control from the rest of the other groups. This simply means that the next front of the Syrian civil war turned Sunni-Shiite war will be being fought across Europe just as soon as the Christian and Atheist Secular Humanists have been murdered in large part or converted to Islam or converted to being good little worker Dhimmis producing for their new taskmasters. The alternative is a revolution by the Europeans themselves which will end very poorly for both sides as this will become very quickly a war of extermination and who will prove the strongest force and last group standing is in doubt though we would place our money on the home team as they know the landscape and will be fighting for their own survival and the survival of their way of life and the Europeans have proven their ability for warfare and the heritage to match. The question which needs answering is when, or should it be, will the European Union and the individual governments such as Angela Merkel’s Germany and François Hollande’s France wake from their utopian dream, which is proving to be a hellish nightmare for their people, before their nations are so overrun with ‘Syrian refugees’ that recovery has been made impossible? If not, does the average European have it within them to force their leaders to heed and save the lands before it is too late? The greatest of fears is that for Western Europe it may already be too late.

 

The other ramification of the ‘Syrian refugees’ problem is that with much of Eastern European nations, former Warsaw Pact nations plus Greece, have closed their borders allowing those who wish to take trains through to Germany and other points west with the train stations along the tracks well-guarded to force the ‘Syrian refugees’ through to all points west. What way will these nations be turning once NATO ceases to offer them any real protection? We see their returning to the Russian sphere of influence as Vladimir Putin (aka Vlad the Invader), offering a stronger arm in protecting them from the invading ‘Syrian refugees’ and all that encompasses, then turning to the seemingly feckless United States which has proven itself to be weak and unsupportive at best and traitorous at worst. Poland and the Czech Republic, despite being the victims of President Obama’s cancellation of the radar and anti-missile system which had been approved for delivery and operation on their bases, might hold out and wait to see who wins the 2016 United States elections though if pressed would likely seriously consider placing their bets on a sure thing, meaning Putin. And now we can probably name the three things which will be the Obama legacy; first, a nuclear armed Middle East tinderbox; second, a neutered United States military degraded to a point of near impotence; and third, removing any trust in the United States as her promises have been proven to be simply worthless if any change of administration can so abruptly and totally alter the realities and break any and all promises with allies apparently is just as easily done as it is with revolutions in third world nations. The last one which renders the United States as untrustworthy will prove to be the straw which breaks the camel’s back as if the word of the President of the United States is only good for as long as he or his party holds the Office of the President, then what worth does any Presidential promise hold? Even worse was that President Obama also went back on promises made by President Willian Jefferson Clinton which infers that even same party Presidencies may prove untrustworthy of keeping promises made by previous Presidents of their own party. One thing which has been made evidently obvious is that any nation relying on the United States to have their back had best also have their own Plan B just in case they find their back suddenly rendered vulnerable as their strongest protection of their back having quit and gone home prematurely. Further, depending on the United States to actually produce and make good on promises of weapons systems being completely dependent on any new President continuing with the production or delivery of promised systems should put the fear of heaven in them as the anti-missile systems and radar cancelled and the premature stoppage of production of the F-22 Raptor proved as that was the fighter the United States was counting on for granting her air superiority over any other nation, something the F-35 joint strike fighter does not and may even prove to be less of a fifth generation fighter when compared to the Eurofighter Typhoon or the Russian Sukhoi Su-27.

 

 

Picture of F22 Raptor, F35 Joint Strike Fighter, Eurofighter Typhoon or the Russian Sukhoi Su-27

 

 

These are the lasting legacies of President Obama and they will all but destroy the faith in the world of any United States President for some time into the future until trust can be proven or given a legal basis. The only item which may be seen as trustworthy might be actual treaties which have the full backing of the congress and the Courts, including especially the Supreme Court and as such may be proven to be beyond the reach of any American President to negate by his or her own power without running afoul of the Courts and Congress. Even this will need to be seen by those who have been burnt the most by this administration and its complete disregard for precedent, Presidential respect for and by other administrations and potentially the rule of law which would make even treaties only as good as the President and congress who made them and otherwise potentially worthless. The United States is going to have to face these issues and either find some manner of placing the nation behind the promises of their Presidents going forward when a new President takes the office and has a different view of the world and sees the promises of the predecessor as unbinding upon them, that must be changed if the United States ever desires to be respected and trusted ever again. Perhaps it is time for a previously unthought of and seemingly unnecessary Amendment to the United States Constitution which will state that once the President and the Congress have declared use of the United States military to undertake a task that from that point forward or until a supermajority of two-thirds of both houses of congress and the President together call the mission complete, the military will remain on stations until the military Joint Chiefs of Staff declare the mission completed. Such an amendment would restore faith that once the United States military was deployed that they would not simply pull out leaving whatever governance they left in place completely vulnerable and it will cause the Congress and President to carefully spell out the necessary accomplishments of every mission long before troops would be deployed. Both of these required changes in the way troops are deployed and returned from deployment would make for stricter definitions of any mission and a clear promise that once the United States troops are deployed and tasked with supporting any government until said time that it has been stabilized and completely functioning with domain over all of its nation that the United States will not just pull out leaving a huge sucking sound of a vacuum which will almost always be filled by other than savory forces. Such would give real meaning to any military promise given by the Congress and President when forces are deployed to a long term mission which will necessarily be passed to the next President and his administration which would be powerless to end the mission unless the military top level commanders determined the mission completed.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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