Beyond the Cusp

April 26, 2015

Israel Will Not Protect the World Alone This Time

Filed under: Act of War,Administration,Advanced Weapions Systems,Air Strike,Amalekites,American People Voice Opinion,Anti Missile System,Apocalypse,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Armed Services,Army,Ayatollah,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,Ayatollahs,Breakout Point,Civilization,Command,Compulsary Service,Conflict Avoidnce,Coverup,Ditherer in Chief,Domestic NGOs,Egyptian Military,EMP Device,European Pressure,Executive Order,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,IAF,ICBM,IDF,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,Iraqi Military,IRGC,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jihad,Jimmy Carter,John Kerry,Leftist Pressures,Military,Military Intervention,Mohammad Mosaddegh,Mohammad-Rezā Pahlavi,Muslim World,Non Binding Resolution,North Korean Pressure,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Proliferation,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,P5+1,Permanenet Members,Persia,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,Promised Land,Rebel Forces,Russian Pressure,Saddam Hussein,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Security Council,State Department,Supreme Leader,Syria,Taqiyya,Threat of War,Twelvers,United Arab Republic,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,Uranium Enrichment,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Without Zionism or America — qwertster @ 2:39 AM
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Back when Saddam Hussein was actually developing nuclear weapons material and was having the perfect nuclear reactor being built by profiteering interests from France and had bunkers constructed by an equally monetarily enterprising German company and believing they had the world fooled as the Europeans were more concerned by their bottom line and the United States was apparently blithely ignorant of the Iraqi game; so the weight of dispatching the central items of what was potentially the Iraqi nuclear weapons development central point, the reactor was relegated to the Israelis acting alone. The Iraqis were not using the technically challenging uranium differentiation system, which in the early 1980s was a rather daunting challenge, and instead was opting for a plutonium producing reactor. This left the Iraqis with what was apparently an unfettered romp to develop nuclear weapons while appearing to remain compliant to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) of which Iraq was a signatory. And so it remained until the morning of June 7, 1981 when the Israelis launched “Operation Opera” to destroy the French built and almost ready to have its nuclear fuel rods installed Osirak Reactor which was capable of producing weapons grade plutonium. The entirety of the Western world opposed any attack on the reactor or accompanying buildings as the Europeans relied on Iraqi oil or had too numerous business dealings and other profitable relations which may have faced difficulties or potential cancellation should Iraq suspect the Western powers in any way supported any such attack. Even within Israel there were the expected and usual detractors against Israeli actions including the then leader of the opposition Labor Party Shimon Peres, Yitzchak Shamir predicting extreme and non-survivable reactions and backlash as well as those in the cabinet who also opposed any attack for various reasons chief of which was the effect it would have on the peace treaty with Egypt. Prime Minister Menachem Begin still pushed the idea for an intervention to destroy the reactor forward in hopes the Cabinet would eventually see there was no other viable choice. There were logistics problems which had to be overcome such as but not limited to removing external fuel tanks on the F-16s in order to equip them with the heavy munitions necessary for the attack, assign F-15s to guard the bombers to, from and during the attack in case of Iraqi countermeasures, as well as training the pilots to fly on the floor to avoid being detected by any Arab radar and choosing a route which would also minimize detection. The final trigger which finally won approval for the attack was the knowledge that the fuel rods had been prepared for shipment from France to Iraq which if installed would have resulted in a radioactive cloud from any assault making the vote a now or never choice. This changed the critical opposition to now support the attack. The original attack date was set but it became necessary to call off the attack and reschedule it for the next month. Fortunately this setback still permitted the attack to be set before the fuel rods were to be installed in the reactor or even be stored in close proximity to the reactor buildings themselves. The Osirak Reactor was destroyed and Israel faced censure at the United Nations with President Ronald Reagan refusing to use the American veto to protect the Israelis as he too felt betrayed by their attack without first having received his approval, something he had all but assured was not forthcoming even had it been sought. The remainder including the Western world’s great reliefs and their acclamations and thanks, even if belated, that they were not facing a nuclear armed Saddam Hussein in either the first or second Gulf Wars.

 

Looking at Iran one might be tempted to claim that it seems like, if we may be permitted to steal a quotation from Yogi Berra, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” This time it’s not Iraq but their neighbor, Iran. It is not Saddam Hussein but rather the Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. This time it is a Shiite ruler not a Sunni ruler though it is once again an adversary of Saudi Arabia. And just like the last time, the Saudis Royals are not about to launch any attack, especially not on their own and highly unlikely they would ally with and accompany the Israelis. The United States is once again against any such attack and threatens to withhold any usual protection at the United Nations Security Council should Israel choose to ignore their opposition and attack anyways. The Europeans are once again all after the rewards of trade agreements they are already salivating over as the United States takes the brunt of any criticisms for the near obvious bad deal of a lifetime as President Obama is willing to take the scorns and suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune if it permits him to construct a new kingdom in the Middle East to replace the old alliances with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel with one where the United States and Iran share the hegemony with Iran the hegemony taking care of the Middle East and the United States free to attend to other concerns. This alliance comes complete with other supporting characters including but not limited to Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and potentially Yemen and whichever other nations the ever slowly devouring appetite of the Ayatollahs set their attentions towards. Additionally, the Russians are playing the role of the Soviet Union in the Middle East and beyond with an unsurprising echo of the Soviet past with the Russian President being Colonel Putin formerly of KGB fame and China will be China taking advantage of any situation the world inadvertently creates, like the need by Iran for an outlet to sell their crude oil. Thus the world is hurling full steam ahead towards a nuclear armed nation which remains the inheritors of the Persian Empire’s proud historic past with all of its attitude of empire which they traded in order to name themselves after the Nazi master race Aryan, or Iran in Farsi, and add to such the trait and heritage of the potentially suicidal belief patterns of Shia Islam and these nations central to permitting this nuclear arming of such a nation all claim Israel has lost it and gone over the deep end when they claim that perhaps a second look might be a good idea.

 

There have been more than just a few articles which point to the fact that the world is relying on good old Israel to ride over the hill and rescue the world from itself once more. They even point to the fact that there exist a number of Sunni nations including but not limited to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States which would potentially offer their assistance or at least give spiritual support. There is some bad news for the world; it is going to take a whole different level of support if they really expect Israel to suffer the ramifications of and the promised denunciations, trade embargoes, United Nations sanctions, and other barbs and mistreatments in size and scope potentially previously unimagined. Israel has stated that they are quite capable and up to the task of striking and setting the Iranian nuclear program back potentially months or even for over a year or even two years. That is not the question; the question is whether it is worth the severe and unprecedented ramifications that is the main concern for Israel. Israel has to weigh whether it will be beyond her ability to guarantee that Iran has too much to lose by using their nuclear weapons once they develop and build them, whether that be in ten months or the ten years that President Obama promises, making it thus worth the price which would be guaranteed in the retaliatory strikes by Hamas, Hezballah, Syria, IRGC and a guarantee that Iran will use their first nuclear weapon on Tel Aviv no matter what the cost even should it require using it from aboard a ship making a suicide run for the shoreline beaches of Tel Aviv. The consequences of assaulting the Iranian nuclear sites are well known to Israel as well as her neighbors in the Middle East. These are the very same consequences which have intimidated the other nations who, like Israel, will be threatened by a nuclear weapon armed Iran. It is this threat which may well lead to a nuclear weapons arms race throughout the Middle East and North Africa with Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and even the Gulf States leading the way. This too must also be included in the Israeli calculus. The one thing heard repeatedly is that there is no threats which Israel could use to deter the Iranians from carrying out their threat to launch a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv once they have sufficient a store of nuclear weapons to follow up with further strike should Israel retaliate.

 

That leads us to the question of exactly what threats could Israel utilize to prevent a nuclear attack by the Iranians once they are sufficiently armed. The unfortunate, or potentially advantageously, truth about the threats which would be most effective on Iran is that they would also be very disconcerting and threatening to the rest of the Muslim world. It is obvious that should Iran drop any nuclear weapons anywhere, or everywhere, across Israel that Israel would strike every population center across all of Iran, Syria, Shiite Iraq and Hezballah portions of Lebanon and thus these would not be sufficient deterrence to prevent an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel. But then peer pressure may be exactly what might be required to pressure Iran from striking at Israel. The first targets Israel needs to assure Iran will be targeted beyond her borders should be every holy shrine and city in all of Shia Islam. Going beyond this point would be potentially dangerous for Israel as it would also potentially push what might be uncomfortable allies throughout the Muslim world forcing them to become an ally with Iran against Israel. Still, some concern might be given to such targets as to the two cities which Iran has placed as their most prized desire in all the world and the reason that Iran and Saudi Arabia are so set against one another, Mecca and Medina. These are the most prized cities in all of Islam and before World War I were under the care of the Hashemite Royal Family. That changed with the fall of the Ottoman Empire when the Saudi Royal Family forcibly took control of Mecca and Medina. This was the reason behind the British promise to grant the Hashemite family a kingdom in exchange for their assistance during World War I and thus Jordan today ruled by a Hashemite King. Such a threat though of destroying Mecca and Medina would be a counter attack as a last ditch response after a disastrous attack which had likely destroyed the majority of the Israeli population and economic centers simply by striking central Tel Aviv with any nuclear weapon. With such damage already inflicted on Israel there would be so little left to risk as Israel as a functioning nation would be in serious jeopardy. In a perfect world Israel would not be facing such a predicament but then again in a perfect world President Jimmy Carter would not have given the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini the support in dethroning the Shah and thus the Ayatollahs would not be in power in Iran. But in a really perfect world the United States would not have overthrown the democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh placing the Shāh Mohammad-Rezā Pahlavi into power reestablishing the Iranian Royal family. Perfect worlds can be so confusing and lead to a tangled web that takes some serious untangling. I guess the world would never be a perfect place and then who knows if we would actually really like what a perfect world might give us as result, who knows.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 17, 2015

Iraq War Front Not About What the Media Claims

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,24/7 News Reporting,Abbas Araghchi,Administration,Advanced Weapions Systems,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab Winter,Arab World,Arabs,Assembly of Experts,Ayatollah,Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,Ayatollahs,Bashir al-Assad,Battle of Khaybar,Battle of Tours,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Cairo Speech,Calaphate,Charles "The Hammer" Martel,Chemical Weapons,Children Murdered,Civil War,Civilization,Commander in Cheif,Conflict Avoidnce,Consequences,Coverup,Ditherer in Chief,Egypt,Equal Responsibility,Equal Rights,Equal Treatment,Equality,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Media,European Pressure,European Union,Foreign Funding,France,Germany,Golden Age of Islam,Greece,Green Line,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,Hezballah,History,Holy Roman Army,Inquisition,International Politics,Intifada,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps,Iraq,Iraqi Military,IRGC,IRGC,ISIS,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Israeli Media,Jerusalem,Jewish Home,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,Jordan,Jordanian Pressure,King Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein,Kurdish Militias,Kurdistan,Kurds,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Liberate Occupied Lands,Libya,Mainstream Media,Media,Media Bias,Media Censorship,Military,Military Coup,Military Intervention,Misreporting,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Mohammad Khatami,Muslim Expansionism,Muslim Invade Europe from the East,Muslim Invasoin of Europe from the West,Muslim World,Muslims,North Korean Pressure,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Oppression,Palestinian Media,Parchin,Persia,Persians,Peshmerga Militias,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President,President for Life,President Obama,President Sisi,Qom,Rebel Forces,Response to Muslim Takeover,Saddam Hussein,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secular Interests,Shiite,Shooting,Shooting Victims,Siege of Vienna,Stabbing,Submission,Sunni,Supreme Leader,Syria,Syrian Military,Terror,The Twelfth Imam,Threat of War,Tribe,Twelvers,United Nations Presures,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,Victims,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Media,World Opinion,World Pressures,World Without Zionism or America,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:38 AM
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The world need not look outside Iraq for proof about the real reason the Iraqi government fight ISIS where they do and further explain the oft ignored results after areas are presumably liberated. The reports have often been suppressed after the Iraq forces, which include Shiite Militias fighting along-side regular Iraqi forces and Iranian fighters mostly from the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) aiding their strength to some of these more Shiite units. These reports often fail to mention the aftermath of liberating Sunni villages and the ensuing violence which is purported to have resulted in a hunt for the Sunni who may have survived whatever purity test was applied by the ISIS forces after they had assaulted the area. This places the mostly Sunni men’s lives at risk of being targeted and thus forfeited as much if the Militias are simply Shiite fanatics. One can look at the Shiite Militias as being the anti-ISIS forces out to purify these villages by the slaughter of the Sunni forces sympathetic to the ISIS occupation. As far as many in the Shiite Militias are concerned, if one survived the ISIS forces and their purging of those not pure enough from their Sunni perspective, then they are definitely not to be good Muslims by the Shiite forces making up both the Shiite Militias and the IRGC, many of whom are just as fanatical Shiites, have laid waste many of the villages which managed to survive the Sunni purification purges.

Much of the southern areas reclaimed from ISIS have been subjected to purity tests checking their loyalty qualified under Shiite scrutiny. Quite often these villages were found to be impure and in too many instances they were razed to the ground. One can only imagine the horror many of these villages have faced being subjected to a test by fanatical Sunnis from ISIS and when liberated from that predicament being subjected to another test, this time by Shiite fanatics. One can only assume that these villages were left without any men between the ages of thirteen to around forty-five. I realize that when in a fight for your life one will resort often times going to extreme ends to assure that the areas you have cleared are absolutely free of anyone who remotely held a thought of your opposing force. The real difficulty has been surviving first the inquisition as imagined by the Sunni fanatics of ISIS and then within a few weeks having to face another inquisition, this time by Shiite fanatics of the forces presumably aiding the government of Iraq. Obviously this series of back-to-back subjection to opposing inquisitions, very few if any villages remained intact. The one fortunate result is that the Iraq/Iran forces have yet to attempt to destroy everything they judge to be un-Islamic, such as museum exhibits, as had ISIS forces once they had secured an area; though that is little comfort to many of the people living on the or beyond the cusp of the fighting.

Meanwhile, on the front it is the less reported things which are drastically different as all of the forces fighting to hold back or even force retreat from the ISIS, or simply attempting to just hold the line consist of a disparate group of loosely aligned players. When these mostly militia forces finally wrest a village back from ISIS control, there is no purity test applied and the villagers are often assisted in rebuilding their defenses and even improving them so as to have them provide better ability to resist any further assaults regardless of what they might believe. These forces liberating and often rescuing these people from living under ISIS rule are the Kurdish Peshmerga. The Kurds are a wonderful people as they are often misrepresented in the mainstream media. The main theme in Kurdish life is one that many Israelis might recognize, namely that as long as you live peaceably with them, they will have no problem being kindly neighbors with you. The unfortunate truth is that for most of Kurdish people their neighbors have been less than expected in the live-and-let-live department. This was true in Saddam Hussein and Iraq; Erdogan and Turkey; Bashir al-Assad and Syria and finally the Ayatollahs and Iran where all have suppressed, persecuted and even exposed to attempts at genocide using chemical weapons of mass destruction. This use of chemical weapons against the Kurdish villages by Saddam Hussein was part of the reasons for going into Iraq and ending Saddam’s reign of terror against them. This has unfortunately been the case for much of the Kurdish existence.

When the United States coalition forces reached the Kurdish regions in the northern areas of Iraq they were greeted as the liberators they were. The Kurdish people were simply glad and had no problem showing their excitement. Since their liberation from the oppressive rule by Saddam Hussein the Kurds set up their own semiautonomous region which has ruled itself, policed itself, and defended itself. They have accomplished this with little assistance from the outside world. The Kurds initially held back ISIS but had to retreat for a short while but have returned and pushed ISIS out of their areas. They also assisted the Kurdish forces under threat by ISIS in Syria. Even then did they rely predominantly on their own people to do the heavy work and eventually requested that the allied forces target certain areas of Kobanê in order to unseat ISIS forces heavily entrenched positions. This led directly to the gains which have recently liberated Kobanê and the immediate locations. The Kurdish fighters in Syria have requested aid as they have begun to strenuously work to flush out the remaining ISIS forces and found themselves running short on ammunition. The Kurdish front is the most civil and humane of the fronts in Iraq.

The lack of humane treatment of the villagers in the rest of Iraqi warfront has reached a level where some military are questioning the West’s support being provided. Far too many fighters on the Iraqi side are just as ruthless upon taking a town as were their adversaries in ISIS. The Iraqi inquisitors behave when in the presence of American or other Western advisors but these advisors cannot be in all places simultaneously. This has left room for some atrocities to be committed by the presumed allies of the Western forces. This violence has solely been restricted to the Sunni villages which when liberated by Shiite militias are subjected to yet more inhumane treatments and many get to be interviewed in inquisition-like questioning of their purity of faith. As those remaining in these villages have already passed the ISIS inquisitors, they have already received one big black mark on their inquisitor’s sheet as they now test for allegiance to their form of Islam. The conflict has born sufficient evidence of the hatred built around the Sunni-Shiite split in Islam. There is a divide which many people have had to carefully straddle the line between the two being capable of having a Sunni appearance in the morning and having a Shiite appearance that afternoon while surviving the firefight in between. It is also this divide and the highly tense feelings engendered by it that lies at the base of the current violence across much of the Muslim world. And wherever one looks around the Muslim world the differences are almost universally recognizable. There is either the Sunni-Shiite divide or a racial divide of Arab against non-Arab. There is nothing like a Western national feeling in most of the Arab world where people despite racial or financial differences live together sharing those things which makes them better and is most beneficial while retaining some traditions within the home.

Much of the Arab ruled world has this as a prevalent problem as if peoples with different tribal backgrounds were broken into smaller groups and merged with neighbors who were more likely to be enemies were instead forced into a single nation. If such a plan had been implemented then the only governing style that could function at all as a nation was under the oppressive thumb of a strong dictatorial leader who would choose a single or at most dual tribal strength and keep the other tribes suppressed. This style of leadership could lead to the occasional change of leadership through a coup which would bring a similar ruler into office who would change the tribes favored and tribes suppressed. Still this led to a similar situation where the leadership had to invest too much effort in preventing his nation from fragmenting that there was little hope for development. Even had such a plan hoped that in time there could be multiethnic democracies rising from these states, such hopes were soon left unrealized as strong ruler after strong ruler eventually led to the Arab Winter which is still spinning its disastrous results in Syria and Libya where the tribal areas are fighting each other as well as throwing out the old dictator which has been accomplished in Libya without improving anything and still to be completed in Syria with likely similar results. The eventual result of this turmoil is quite probably intending to leave a few strong states to fight it out as to whim will be crowned leader of the Muslim world as well as over the Arab subculture. Currently we are down to a few potential winners in this winner take all scenario and they are Egypt under President and former General Sisi, Saudi Arabia and its Royal Family, Turkey under Erdogan even if he has to invent a new office for him to rule through (oh, wait, didn’t he basically just do that?), and finally the Obama chosen ones, Iran under its Ayatollahs, Assembly of Experts, President and parliament all of which must genuflect in the direction of the Supreme Leader. Those are the players and their task is to unravel the Gordian Knott of Sykes-Picot and reestablish the Caliphate. What the role of the Western world is in all of this is unestablished as there is no true leadership in the Western world other than an apparent mere occupant in the White House, one that has silently empowered Iran and will soon stand with them when they announce their nuclear capability and claim the world as their pearl in the oyster. Where the world goes once Iran has rule over the new Caliphate, marching across Europe nearly unopposed until they reach the channel, is anybody’s guess. Then will the British rue the day they connected to the mainland through a tunnel and hurriedly rush to close it by any means necessary, flooding it included. The world could likely change dramatically over the next two decades. Let’s just hope to recognize it after these changes take effect. The coming problems will dwarf those of today, and that is far from comforting.

Beyond the Cusp

March 3, 2015

Trust Betrayed but By Who?

Filed under: Absolutism,Administration,AIPAC,Amalekites,American Israel Public Affairs Committ,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Benyamin Netanyahu,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Blue Water Navy,Breakout Point,Britain,Cabinet,Canada,Catherine Ashton,China,Civilization,Conflict Avoidnce,Congress,Coverup,Crusades,Ditherer in Chief,Domestic NGOs,Elections,EMP Device,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Federica Mogherini,Fordo,Foreign Funding,Foreign Minister Baird,Foreign NGOs,France,Germany,Government,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,History,House of Representatives,IAEA,Internal Pressures,International Atomic Energy Agency,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps,Iraq,IRGC,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jihad,John Kerry,Koran,Leftist Pressures,Mainland China,Military,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Muslim World,Muslims,Netanyahu,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Obama,Osirak Reactor,Parchin,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,Saddam Hussein,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Senate,Terror,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Upgraded Military Capabilities,Uranium Enrichment,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:23 AM
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In the midst of what is being called a betrayal of trust, hurtful acts to friendship and making United States Israeli relations into a partisan issue; there has been a few items likely to have been overlooked. Nobody is paying much attention to one side’s actions to put this whole vitriolic sniping into perspective. The news is full of the accusations of betrayal by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claiming that his speech to Congress will be hurtful to American/Israeli relations. He has been warned not to state any of the terms in the framework of the agreement which President Obama is intending to sign in the near future as that might hurt the chances for the framework to be ratified. Meanwhile, another White House unnamed source gave comment which appears to counter the entire flow of aspersions when they stated that the speech was not going to have any effect nor would it in any way harm the talks the administration was holding as part of the P5+1 negotiations with Iran. If the negotiations will be unaffected then what is the entire brouhaha all about? When you add the statements at AIPAC by Netanyahu where he praised President Obama and stated that this is a disagreement about policy, not about anything personal and that such disagreements have existed before and the relations and personal interactions survived them all and some even became actions which were later appreciated though not at the time of the disagreement. Probably the best example of this was when Israeli Prime Minister Begin ignored President Ronald Regan’s insistence that Israel stand down and not potentially set off explosions across the Middle East which bombing the Osirak nuclear plant in Iraq presumably would cause. Israel still dispatched six fighter-bombers and escorts and destroyed the reactor and somehow there were no actual fireworks and President Bush later thanked the Israelis for not listening as if they had not struck the reactor it was very possible that Iraq would have had nuclear weapons making any actions against Saddam Hussein next to impossible. Even President Obama appeared to be talking back the acrimony stating that where there may be “substantial disagreement” over how to achieve the shared goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, such disagreement would not be “permanently destructive” to American/Israeli relations. The difficulty is the mixed message as the President and Secretary of State Kerry also have sharply pointed to previous warnings from Prime Minister Netanyahu such as the claims that the interim agreement gave Iran too much leeway and was not providing sufficient enforcement while sanctions were being relaxed and this has not led to any disasters.

 

All of these accusations will only be validated or invalidated by the results down the road. There has been one point of contention which is undisputable, Prime Minister Netanyahu has pointedly made the case that Iran must never be permitted to have nuclear weapons capabilities while President Obama’s entire case is that by postponing the attaining of nuclear weapons by Iran, they will be put off by a decade or possibly even fifteen years and that the entire attitude of the Iranian government will likely change rather noticeable and for the better in the ensuing years and especially if the United States is able to put the past behind and initiate relations with Iran which can only help to alleviate any difficulties the West has with Iran. This is very likely minimizing the differences as Prime Minister Netanyahu and other Israelis have noted that the terms of the framework will allow Iran to reach almost breakout conditions though not verifiably have the capability to actually produce nuclear weapons and by allowing such is tantamount to risking Iran clandestinely producing nuclear weapons in the dark and outside of the ability of the IAEA inspectors to monitor. This was made all the more obvious recently with two reports. The first report came from the lead inspector of the IAEA who pointed out that Iran was not forthcoming with satisfactory answers to concerns placed before them for explanations which might allay fears that Iran was well on their way to militarizing their nuclear program. The second came from the same dissident group which had initially made the extent and scope of the Iranian nuclear activities known to the Western nations who have come forth stating that an additional nuclear plant for the processing of uranium had been established and was ready to be activated. The processing plant was presumably close to Tehran sitting underneath existing structures which had also served to shelter their activities from satellites and other detection abilities including especially drones. The news of such a facility makes fears that Iran intends to produce nuclear weapons despite any agreement far more probable should this reported plant be actualized and hopefully be placed under IAEA inspections, something unlikely when one also finds that the IAEA requests to inspect the Parchin Military Base where suspected weaponizing tests and manufacture of the detonators for a nuclear weapons were carried out. Recent reports also inform that not only had the buildings reputedly used for such experimentation and perfection of their triggering detonators been razed and the ground turned up and replaced with earth from another location, but now new buildings are being constructed over the site making inspections next to impossible. Such obstructionism does not bode well for Iranian compliance with the terms of any agreement.

 

Additional threats and demands have been levied and amongst them the demand that the Israelis not state any of the terms they suspect are a part of the framework largely because the administration has gone to such extremes to avoid allowing the Congress to vote on any agreement as such would require allowing the terms to be known. This request was made even before the elections which placed the Senate under a Republican majority. It has been the secrecy under which the administration has operated these negotiations which has initiated the suspicions which were apparently substantiated by the information received by the Israelis before they were locked out of the loop on any further updates by the United States. This will likely mean that Israel will now be just as ill-informed as the other Western members of the negotiations team as much of the framework has appeared to have been crafted in one-on-one meetings between Secretary Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. We will see today what effects the admonishments from the administration will have had on the address before Congress by Prime Minister Netanyahu as he gave little indications at his AIPAC speech as to what today’s speech will contain. Largely the Prime Minister’s speech was to show the appreciation that his administration and all Israelis have with their brothers and sisters living in the United States, the second most Jewish population state. Initiating his speech the Prime Minister gave thanks to Milos Zeman, president of the Czech Republic, for his support of Israel and his nation’s historical support of the Jewish state. Likewise he thanked Canadian officials, including outgoing Foreign Minister John Baird, for being “champions of Israel.” He gave a warm greeting to the packed audience greeting them with, “My friends I bring greetings to you from Jerusalem, our eternal undivided capital!” He also quipped receiving thunderous applause with, “I also bring to you news that you may not have heard. You see I’ll be speaking in Congress tomorrow.” Beyond the personal thank you statements and introductory ice breakers to put everyone at ease, Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke of the ties between the United States and Israel like that of a family that despite any disagreements remain closely related and such disputes do not make the family dysfunctional. Netanyahu stated, “You’re here to tell the world that reports of the demise of the Israeli and American ties are not only premature, they’re just wrong. You’re here to tell the world that our alliance is stronger than ever. And because of you… it’s going to get even stronger in the coming years.” He also stressed, “My speech is not meant to show any disrespect for President Obama or for the office that he holds, I have great respect for both.” Prime Minister spoke of the long period where Jews were as in the wilderness with no real home and subjected to the whims and provocations of those under whom they lived often facing terrible degradations and compared that suffering with the reality that now we once again have our homelands where we can finally fight for our rights and respect and rule ourselves. The Prime Minister initiated this telling that, “For 2,000 years my people, the Jewish people, were stateless, voiceless… we suffered relentless persecution and horrific attacks.” And then concluded stating, “Well, no more! The days when the Jewish people are passive in the face of threats to annihilate us, those days are over!” He also pointed out that the current disagreement with the United States is not over the goal we both desire but over the best method for achieving said goal. He pointed to our shared values of “liberty, equality, justice, tolerance, compassion.” You can hear the speech and judge his language and emotions yourself as his speech is embedded below.

 

 

 

We covered the framework’s rough draft a few days ago in the article “P5+1 and Iran Six Month Working Nuclear Agreement” which included the CNN released draft. We will not bore everyone repeating that article which had a few of our observations and cautionary quote made us the most ill at ease as we thought it was for too restrictive and presumptuous to assume to speak for the Congress while refusing to allow their input and advice. Today’s speech by the Israeli Prime Minister will be reviewed by many journalists and editorialists many of whom will have their best, sharpest and longest knives bared to stab and cut off the juiciest morsels they believe they can use to smear and defame the Prime Minister while others will have their most favorable glasses on and perfumed stationary on which to reveal their admirations and near love affair with Netanyahu, and any truth likely lies in the middle. Well, we will see what we will see and perhaps hear something unexpected but whatever is to come, by tomorrow all will be done except the media shouting, and who knows how long that may last and who from the political side will jump in and mix things up further. No matter what is said to Congress, the rest of the world continues to spiral out of control with the Libya ISIS terrorists still threatening to attack Italy and sac Rome, ISIS taking hostages with which to incite more hatred with their horrific offerings, Iran now being given the lead in the bombing war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, Russia still eyeing the entirety of the coast of the Ukraine and drooling over the other former Soviet bloc nations and finally there is China manufacturing a blue water navy complete with continental missile carrying boomer submarines and aircraft carriers in their attempt to supplant the United States as the hegemonic power in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait or Formosa Strait, the Tsu Shima Strait, the Korea Strait and lastly adding the Pacific Ocean to their ownership of both ends of the Panama Canal. The world just keeps on getting more interesting and the nations within better and more dangerously armed and the little people, you know, you and us are simply not any part of the equations beyond statistical estimations on how many of us and in which regions we will be sacrificed in the next attempt to do what has been attempted throughout history, conquer the known world which finally actually means the whole world. Isn’t that just wonderful?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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