Beyond the Cusp

March 1, 2015

P5+1 and Iran Six Month Working Nuclear Agreement

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While rummaging through the news online, in my e-mails and the various other eye-straining sources which have taken near complete control of what is otherwise a retirement in heaven I came across, much to my surprise, and transcript from CNN reputing to be of the soon to be completed next step in the Iran nuclear program negotiations with the P5+1. What is perhaps the biggest surprise was the qualifier that this agreement is only good for the next six months beyond its signing date by which time a fully flushed out agreement is expected to be ready to present for the final agreement signing ceremony. I am not entirely sure if this makes our former prediction that there would not be another extension of the negotiations as the parties are not calling this an extension though it really feels a lot like the former six month extensions even if this presents an original agreement framework which they claim requires some additional tweaks, definitions, additions and alterations. There are plenty of mentions of which sanctions will be terminated, what funds which will be released, what items shall be placed beyond the influences or hands of the world even should the talks collapse before the final completed agreement is molded, twisted, mutilated and otherwise tortured into existence. Now for the spoiler but I am afraid this is necessary, there is one particular stipulation in this agreement which should send chills up and down any concerned individual’s spine as it sets up a situation which is completely unconscionable for any United States President or any of the President’s advisors, Cabinet Secretaries or other Administrations personnel from remaining a member of the government of any United States President who would approve and sign such a stipulation. Here is that singular stipulation.

“The U.S. Administration, acting consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Congress, will refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.”

With such a restriction in place there is no longer anything for the Iranians to fear henceforth into the future even should the supposed fleshed out version will never be produced as this extends complete immunity into the future without any mitigating factor or exception into perpetuity as far as we can tell. This sentence being included is such an insult to the Congress that any President agreeing to its inclusion and or Secretary of State, negotiating team member or advisors of the President or Secretary of State not demanding this be removed or they will remove themselves from their service in this shameful Administration are displaying a contemptible disrespect to the Congress and the American people. But anyone who has followed this fiasco from its inception under the watchful eye of President Obama has likely realized long ago that the main principle of the negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran, especially since President Obama and his Secretary of State and State Department took command to direct the negotiations the apparent aim has been to drag the negotiations out while protecting Iran from any military option being implemented against their nuclear sites even releasing confidential communications informing the White House of intent to mount a military resolution to prevent Iran attaining breakout conditions or worse, actual nuclear weapons production, only to have their plans or preparations leaked to the media often embarrassing those allied to take such measures and destroying their plans forcing the cancellation of such previously secret preparations and alliances. This stipulation in the agreement being proffered will permanently remove the United States from any efforts to prevent Iran from reaching the breakout point to industrial production of nuclear weapons allowing their building a nuclear arsenal.

 

Much of the remainder of what I interpreted from my reading it once through was that where the United States and likely the rest of the western world which relies on the United States in most military matters and would be incapable for launching a preemptive strike completely on their own will now face an Iranian enrichment industry which will only be restricted from full industrial uranium enrichment will face a United States handcuffed from taking meaningful actions. In return for the United States handcuffing itself Iran has promised to restrict their nuclear program and for the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) to inspect and verify that the Iranians remain committed to and restricted by their promises demanded from this framework, and remember it is actually just that, a framework. Like a framework of a house, skyscraper, bridge, or any construction, there are gaping spaces throughout the structure which allow for things to pass through, in, out and around without much resistance or impediments. The one item we all can be completely assured about is that Iran will test and utilize every last gap in the framework to get around limitations and discomforts which might impinge on their attaining sufficient amounts of unaccounted for LEU (low enriched uranium) which would provide them with the starter uranium to produce as many as a dozen nuclear devices within six to nine months as long as they are careful and plan the times for inspections and provide the right formulas and predicted yields to the IAEA thus permitting their skimming off of a relatively significant amount of LEU over the period of a year or two.

 

Many believe that the IAEA inspections are very strict and intense thus making cheating nearly impossible. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The IAEA inspectors rely on the nation they are assigned to inspect to provide then with the information about their operations in enriching uranium including the levels intended, the amounts of ore will be used to produce yellowcake (uranium hexafluoride UF6), how much additional yellowcake they will import and the expected yields from their enrichment. To give an idea of how far off the predictions can be, in 2009 Iran “miscalculated” in their reports to the IAEA which underestimated their production and actually over-producing their estimates by over thirty percent. Imagine how quickly a clandestine series of cascaded centrifuges stashed in an underground hidden location that Iran could be producing nuclear weapons while appearing for intents and purposes to be honestly keeping all of their promises and nobody would be the wiser until time had run out and Iran has their nuclear arsenal and joined the nuclear club. There have been reports that the most recent series of centrifuges Iran is producing themselves are so far productive and superior to their earlier centrifuges that they are now capable of taking even LEU at five percent can be enriched to weapons grade in a manner similar to what they used to be capable of performing only with twenty-percent enriched uranium previously. The other main item that needs to be spread is that this agreement only is enforceable for six months and should no further deal be patched together it will likely mean the end of negotiations without any deal, the end to IAEA inspections, the termination of any Iranian cooperation and Iran attaining breakout nuclear capabilities within the ensuing year to year and a half. As horrific as such a predicament might be the ensuing consequences would be unthinkable.

 

The immediate consequences to an Iranian nuclear bomb would be daunting enough as it would make the many allied terror groups such as Hezballah, Hamas and other such entities mostly under the indirect control of the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) and span the globe come under the nuclear umbrella from Iran and thus having free hands to spread terror attacks without worry. The long-range ramification would be the immediate nuclear arms race across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt leading the charge. There would be pressures in Israel to reinitiate their nuclear program, assuming they ever had one which they have never officially admitted. Eventually the nuclear arms race in MENA would spread to the nations of Europe and South America as well as potentially the remainder of Africa thus tearing so many holes in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Member nations would be announcing their intent to leave the treaty and many unlikely to even wait the prescribed period before launching full-speed into producing nuclear weapons. They would drop faster than the leaves of autumn caught by the winds of a hurricane drop from their trees, and with a similar speed are heading towards nuclear weapons. Imagine a world where every border dispute, every insulted leader, every old rivalry or almost any slight or offence setting off a standoff and posturing between two recently nuclear armed nations who might not reflect sufficiently on the consequences of using nuclear weapons or expecting that their first strike would sufficiently harm their adversary that they would be incapable of making a response, an underestimation of the desire for revenge more than likely. This agreement could very well be regarded by history as the jumping off point which led the whole world within the most minute of distances from entering a post-apocalyptic world as depicted in too many movies. Read the agreement and let us know where you feel it may lead and what should be done and by whom, it might prove interesting. Below is the framework, framework, I am beginning to hate that word.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

 

This transcript c/o CNN online.

Geneva, 24 November 2013

Joint Plan of Action

Preamble

The goal for these negotiations is to reach a mutually-agreed long-term comprehensive solution that would ensure Iran’s nuclear programme will be exclusively peaceful. Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek or develop any nuclear weapons. This comprehensive solution would build on these initial measures and result in a final step for a period to be agreed upon and the resolution of concerns. This comprehensive solution would enable Iran to fully enjoy its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the relevant articles of the NPT in conformity with its obligations therein. This comprehensive solution would involve a mutually defined enrichment programme with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the peaceful nature of the programme. This comprehensive solution would constitute an integrated whole where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. This comprehensive solution would involve a reciprocal, step-by-step process, and would produce the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions, as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme.

There would be additional steps in between the initial measures and the final step, including, among other things, addressing the UN Security Council resolutions, with a view toward bringing to a satisfactory conclusion the UN Security Council’s consideration of this matter. The E3+3 and Iran will be responsible for conclusion and implementation of mutual near-term measures and the comprehensive solution in good faith. A Joint Commission of E3/EU+3 and Iran will be established to monitor the implementation of the near-term measures and address issues that may arise, with the IAEA responsible for verification of nuclear-related measures. The Joint Commission will work with the IAEA to facilitate resolution of past and present issues of concern.

Elements of a first step

The first step would be time-bound, with a duration of 6 months, and renewable by mutual consent, during which all parties will work to maintain a constructive atmosphere for negotiations in good faith.
Iran would undertake the following voluntary measures:

  • • From the existing uranium enriched to 20%, retain half as working stock of 20% oxide for fabrication of fuel for the TRR. Dilute the remaining 20% UF6 to no more than 5%. No reconversion line.
    • Iran announces that it will not enrich uranium over 5% for the duration of the 6 months.
    • Iran announces that it will not make any further advances of its activities at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant , Fordow or the Arak reactor designated by the IAEA as IR-40.•
    • Beginning when the line for conversion of UF6 enriched up to 5% to UO2 is ready, Iran has decided to convert to oxide UF6 newly enriched up to 5% during the 6 month period, as provided in the operational schedule of the conversion plant declared to the IAEA.•
    • No new locations for the enrichment.
    • Iran will continue its safeguarded R&D practices, including its current enrichment R&D practices, which are not designed for accumulation of the enriched uranium.
    • No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.
    • Enhanced monitoring:o Provision of specified information to the IAEA, including information on Iran’s plans for nuclear facilities, a description of each building on each nuclear site, a description of the scale of operations for each location engaged in specified nuclear activities, information on uranium mines and mills, and information on source material. This information would be provided within three months of the adoption of these measures.
    o Submission of an updated DIQ for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40, to the IAEA.
    o Steps to agree with the IAEA on conclusion of the Safeguards Approach for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40. Daily IAEA inspector access when inspectors are not present for the purpose of Design Information Verification, Interim Inventory Verification, Physical Inventory Verification, and unannounced inspections, for the purpose of access to offline surveillance records, at Fordow and Natanz.
    o IAEA inspector managed access to:
     centrifuge assembly workshops ;
     centrifuge rotor production workshops and storage facilities; and,
     uranium mines and mills.

    In return, the E3/EU+3 would undertake the following voluntary measures:
  •  Pause efforts to further reduce Iran’s crude oil sales, enabling Iran’s current customers to purchase their current average amounts of crude oil. Enable the repatriation of an agreed amount of revenue held abroad. For such oil sales, suspend the EU and U.S. sanctions on associated insurance and transportation services.
     Suspend U.S. and EU sanctions on:
    o Iran’s petrochemical exports, as well as sanctions on associated services.
    o Gold and precious metals, as well as sanctions on associated services.
     Suspend U.S. sanctions on Iran’s auto industry, as well as sanctions on associated services.
     License the supply and installation in Iran of spare parts for safety of flight for Iranian civil aviation and associated services. License safety related inspections and repairs in Iran as well as associated services.
     No new nuclear-related UN Security Council sanctions.
     No new EU nuclear-related sanctions.
     The U.S. Administration, acting consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Congress, will refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.
     Establish a financial channel to facilitate humanitarian trade for Iran’s domestic needs using Iranian oil revenues held abroad. Humanitarian trade would be defined as transactions involving food and agricultural products, medicine, medical devices, and medical expenses incurred abroad. This channel would involve specified foreign banks and non-designated Iranian banks to be defined when establishing the channel.
    o This channel could also enable:
     transactions required to pay Iran’s UN obligations; and,
     direct tuition payments to universities and colleges for Iranian students studying abroad, up to an agreed amount for the six month period.
     Increase the EU authorisation thresholds for transactions for non-sanctioned trade to an agreed amount.

Elements of the final step of a comprehensive solution

The final step of a comprehensive solution, which the parties aim to conclude negotiating and commence implementing no more than one year after the adoption of this document, would:

  •  Have a specified long-term duration to be agreed upon.
     Reflect the rights and obligations of parties to the NPT and IAEA SafeguardsAgreements.
     Comprehensively lift UN Security Council, multilateral and national nuclear-related sanctions, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy, on a schedule to be agreed upon.
     Involve a mutually defined enrichment programme with mutually agreed parameters consistent with practical needs, with agreed limits on scope and level of enrichment activities, capacity, where it is carried out, and stocks of enriched uranium, for a period to be agreed upon.
     Fully resolve concerns related to the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40. No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.
     Fully implement the agreed transparency measures and enhanced monitoring. Ratify and implement the Additional Protocol, consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Majlis (Iranian parliament).
     Include international civil nuclear cooperation, including among others, on acquiring modern light water power and research reactors and associated equipment, and the supply of modern nuclear fuel as well as agreed R&D practices.
    Following successful implementation of the final step of the comprehensive solution for its full duration, the Iranian nuclear programme will be treated in the same manner as that of any non-nuclear weapon state party to the NPT.

____________________________________________________

 

i) Namely, during the 6 months, Iran will not feed UF6 into the centrifuges installed but not enriching uranium. Not install additional centrifuges. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.

ii) At Fordow, no further enrichment over 5% at 4 cascades now enriching uranium, and not increase enrichment capacity. Not feed UF6 into the other 12 cascades, which would remain in a non-operative state. No interconnections between cascades. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.

iii) Iran announces on concerns related to the construction of the reactor at Arak that for 6 months it will not commission the reactor or transfer fuel or heavy water to the reactor site and will not test additional fuel or produce more fuel for the reactor or install remaining components.

iv) Consistent with its plans, Iran’s centrifuge production during the 6 months will be dedicated to replace damaged machines.

v) “Sanctions on associated services” means any service, such as insurance, transportation, or financial, subject to the underlying U.S. or EU sanctions applicable, insofar as each service is related to the underlying sanction and required to facilitate the desired transactions. These services could involve any non-designated Iranian entities.

vi) Sanctions relief could involve any non-designated Iranian airlines as well as Iran Air.

vii) With respect to the final step and any steps in between, the standard principle that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” applies.

 

 

February 28, 2015

Netanyahu Speech Coming Tuesday to be THE Speech

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Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to give his speech to those of the entire Congress with the backbone and wits to attend what President Obama, his administration, the leftist politicians in the United States, and most embarrassing, leftist politicians in Israel and is willing to withstand the withering barrage from the leftist media which will hopefully be easily over four-hundred-seventy-five who sit through the entire speech. There is planned a show of great lack of significance to show disregard and insult for Prime Minister Netanyahu arranged by the Congressional Black Caucus who decided their ire would be best served if they interrupted THE Speech by noticeably walking out in the midst of THE Speech as a sign of the racist nature of THE Speech. The media has harped on THE Speech claiming it is designed to destroy the United States Israel relations as if President Obama’s wrecking-ball relations and operational leaks of presumed privileged communications had not already set the stage for a mortally wounded relationship. Fortunately, once the United States occupant in the White House regains some manner of balance and diplomatically less caustic intent forming every interaction pertaining to Israel and her future I am sure the Israelis will gladly move ahead and simply never mention the injuries suffered the last six years and the potential bumps in the relationship yet to be suffered. Others in the media have accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of making THE Speech all about campaigning for retaining his term in office and being reelected by displaying the good relations he has with the United States by addressing a joint session of Congress. THE Speech has delivered the opponents of Prime Minister Netanyahu sufficient ammunition to shoot him for the next three or four or possibly a round dozen decades and the Israeli leftist media has loaded their weapons to their capacity and will keep the extra munitions for future use. But the politics being played in the United States are far less problematic than the politics being played in Israel.

 

In Israel THE Speech is the center of efforts to pillory Prime Minister Netanyahu claiming that he has destroyed the closest, greatest, most beneficial and friendly relationship any former or potentially future occupant of the White House that Israel will ever experience. Not to toss the entirety of the Israeli media under the bus, we must admit that there are some media sources and reporters, editorialists, anchors and talk show hosts along with bloggers who have supported the efforts by Prime Minister Netanyahu to sound the clarion bell alarms about the impending P5+1 agreement with Iran concerning their nuclear program which Iran claims is solely for civilian use in reactors present and planned for future development while Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and many other world leaders suspect is being utilized to develop and produce in an industrial manner nuclear weaponry. The most distressing of Israeli dissenters who are actively claiming that THE Speech will be the largest possible disaster which will destroy United States relations with Israel and forever cause animosity between the two nations are the two politicians who head the coalition of the Hatnua Party with the Labor Party which these most notorious post-Zionist politicians have mocked the voting public through their use of the misnomer of Zionist Camp, are Tzipi Livni and Yitzhak (Buji) Herzog. Their campaign has almost universally focused on defeating Prime Minister Netanyahu at all costs, and that includes the allowing Iran to attain the ability to fulfill their stated utmost goal to destroy Israel, or as they have referred to Israel, that one bomb nation. Tzipi Livni and Yitzhak Herzog have completely abandoned the unspoken rule for honorable campaigning which places things having direct effects on Israeli relations with the world, especially those relations with historically friendly nations, beyond the pale in any campaign while general theory or policy differences acceptable if handled by stating one’s positions and not direct attacks on actions being undertaken that have direct repercussions on sensitive relations or the future of the State of Israel. Their attacks claiming that THE Speech and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s entirety in office and every actions taken there as working to cause the isolation of Israel on the world’s stage and especially working to destroy relations with the United States and insulting directly President Obama by insisting on giving immediately rather than after the reaching an agreement with Iran before expressing reservations and accusations of reaching and allowing a bad deal which will permit Iran to become a breakout nuclear nation in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s opinion which will be stated in its purest essence as the central subject of THE Speech. As a matter of fact, THE Speech has become a central theme in their campaign and their drive to unseat and replace Prime Minister Netanyahu with their agreed upon sharing with Tzipi Livni taking the first two years and Yitzhak Hertzog assuming the Prime Ministership the final two years knows no bounds nor any restrictions breaking every accepted protocol which have served Israel since her founding on May 15, 1948.

 

So, if the dye is cast and the nuclear agreement a done deal, which simply has a few particulars left to erase the differences, then what is it that Prime Minister Netanyahu believes he can affect by making this apparently contentious appearance, against the better judgment and to the offence which President Obama has expressed, and delivering THE Speech? Perhaps THE Speech will serve its best possible scenario and sour the agreement forcing President Obama to take a new approach, an approach which does not necessarily mean war with Iran which is one of the favorite over-simplifications used by the media. Should that be the eventuality brought on by THE Speech it might lead where the Congress has already stated they intend to head should there not be an agreement reached by the end of March and bring serious, tight, extreme and crippling sanctions against Iran possibly even more stringent than those sanctions which originally brought Iran to the negotiations table before President Obama relaxed sanctions removing many of the most hurtful and effective sanctions. This may work to not only force Iran to reenter negotiations and even potentially force a far more advantageous deal where Iran is forced to not only forfeit continuing their enrichment of uranium, end their construction of the Arak plutonium producing reactor and disassemble all of their centrifuges. This is the deal that President Obama is impossible to attain and that Congress desires using sanctions to prove it to be attainable if only sanctions and time are permitted to work. But it is more probable that President Obama will complete the negotiations and have an agreement to sign in the near future. The only question left is how far Iran will defrost relations with the United States from their frosty ice age which has been the basis ever since the 1979 Iranian revolution and the ensuing hostage crisis where Iran held fifty-two American diplomats and citizens for four-hundred-forty-four days from November 4, 1979, to January 20, 1981, coinciding remarkably with the inauguration of Ronald Reagan. But really, what if THE Speech makes absolutely no difference regarding the agreement being forged between the P5+1 and Iran?

 

There may be reasons beyond simply giving THE Speech before those willing to attend the joint session of Congress and instead intended for the audience beyond which will either view THE Speech through a video or audio transmission, but in Israel the broadcast has been ruled that it must not be broadcast live but with a five minute delay such that anything considered to be a form of campaigning can be muted or even blackening the screen simultaneously as the audio is muted as a precaution against Prime Minister Netanyahu potential to utilize the speech for electioneering purposes. Outside or inside Israel THE Speech will likely be viewed live on CSPAN and I am sure that any interested head of state or politician will be able to arrange viewing live, so basically there will be political leaders and people worldwide who will be able to view live or otherwise view THE Speech with a little effort thus Prime Minister Netanyahu will be speaking to a far wider audience than the United States joined Houses of Congress minus the detractors who will be heeding the demand for them to be the balm for President Obama’s damaged pride by boycotting Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address or possibly his entire visit including any meetings or question and answer sessions he may attend. Then there will be the release of the text which does lack any emphasis added by the Prime Minister’s delivery. These foreign viewers may also be a significant part of the audience intended to be reached by the Prime Minister. Perhaps THE Speech will cause one of the P5+1 members to come out and oppose the agreement thus using their veto to block its implementation other than the United States which leaves Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia. Obviously, Russia and China are more closely aligned with Iran and potentially have no issues with their attaining nuclear weapons capability so the actual targets to object to the deal and demand far more stringent restrictions hopefully crippling the Iranian drive towards nuclear weapons capabilities would be Britain and France. This is not as preposterous a possibility as many might believe as back when the tentative agreement was reached in December of 2013, in a previous vote on the tentative agreement Britain informed the Saudi Arabian rulers of the terms and expressed reservations though they eventually agreed while the French made their communication with the Israelis and initially the French delegation vetoed the agreement and it took until the next day to persuade or otherwise have the French remove their objections and in a subsequent vote all went as preferred by President Obama and his team. It was months later when it became known that the United States had held secret talks and had already released parts of the sanctions even before receiving affirmations from the other partners of the P5+1 nations. So, there is the potential for THE Speech to influence either the British or the French governments such that they send orders to their negotiation delegates and their Foreign Ministers that they have decided to oppose the arrangement hammered out by the United States and Iran independent of the influences of the rest of P5+1 negotiation teams. But what if THE Speech fails to influence any of the nations taking part in these negotiations sufficiently to actively oppose the agreement which is expected by mid-March leaving a little time before the March 31 deadline to smooth any unexpected ruffles which may occur, then what other possibilities could also be sought by Prime Minister Netanyahu?

 

There is another alternative which is probably the least desirable of the potential possibilities and thankfully one of the least likely. Just because the United States along with Russia, China, France and Britain, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and the holders of veto power in that body where the United States veto has been used to Israeli advantage since June of 1967, and Germany which pretty much includes the power brokers from the European Union which has also been included in these negotiations since their inception, reach an agreement or accord, anything other than an actual treaty approved by the United States Congress, does not preclude other nations from attempting to influence or force Iran into negotiations and potentially an even more restrictive and enforceable agreement is not excluded from reality. Such an attempt would require virtually every nation which would otherwise trade with Iran or buy Iranian oil to impose a complete shutdown on all trade with the possible exception originally of medical and food trade goods, but even those would be threatened to be included if the initial sanctions were not sufficiently effective in pressuring Iran into negotiations with this new alliance. Such a decision by a group of nations which might even include one of the first alliances which included Muslim nations such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Kuwait, Bahrain and Indonesia with having Israel as not only one of the nations included, but the nation leading the coalition though it would not be impossible for Israel to operate under the radar, so to speak, and allow Saudi Arabia or Egypt take the leading role. The real threat which would make this such a risk and also so undesirable is the alternative if such sanctions prove ineffective when weighed against the investments and trade with the United States and Europe as well as Russia and China, especially China who buys a large amount of Iranian oil, then that coalition of the willing might find many participating nations not so willing if the time came that makes the need to risk military action against Iran to be placed on the table as an alternate option should Iran continue to refuse to negotiate with this second set of nations. There are very few nations which have sufficient military forces and resources who could join together and pose an actual threat to the Iranian military. There would also be the direct possibility that the nations who took part in the P5+1 negotiations with Iran would decide they needed to enforce their agreement as sufficient and threaten the new alliance with an embargo on them or worse. It is difficult to think of any coalition which would, let alone could, stand against such pressures. The unfortunate thing is there is little hope that THE Speech will have any favorable effects but at least the world, starting with the Representatives and Senators who are in the chamber will receive an in depth explanation of exactly where the Iranian nuclear weapons program has progressed, how long it might take them to build a single nuclear device and how soon after that they would be capable of constructing additional warheads and of the level of sophistications these devices might have and the ever important yields and potential for an EMP device. The one huge question everyone should be clamoring to find the answer, and that is does Iran have the ability to construct a thermonuclear device, in other terms, a hydrogen fusion bomb. If THE Speech reveals that Iran has such technical ability, the engineering specialists capable, and the necessary elements and a trusted and continuous source, as that too would be required to attain such unsettling, daunting and intimidating capabilities; such known to be established capability might even serve as a wake-up call for President Obama, the man who promised to minimize or even reduce the numbers of nuclear armed nations, not initiate and welcome the newest nuclear nation and announcing the newest arms race to nuclear weapon production across the Middle East thus essentially nullifying the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and potentially facilitating the dread inevitability that once almost every nation which desired nuclear weapons were to become so armed which all but guarantees the certitude that a nuclear war will break out somewhere and that will signal the end of civilization and the onset of a world which more resembles those post-apocalyptic B-movies which were released during the Cold War and the threat of a nuclear exchange between the Communist and Western nations.

 

There are those who have claimed, as have I, that President Obama desired to knock the United States from not just the world stage while he was President, but to permanently prevent the United States from reasserting herself as the preeminent surviving super power or even imposing her will through military actions such as was the case in Afghanistan and Iraq until President Obama surrendered both nations through premature retreat pulling out and reducing American military presence such that they served more as advisors and were made too impotent to be a credible force in the field of battle. This is what led to the birth of ISIS and their rise as a threat to Syria and Iraq thus far while the core group also threatens Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel. This was followed, almost ran concurrently, with the pullout of American forces when President Obama pressed Egyptian President Mubarak from office and supported the Muslim Brotherhood and their takeover of Egypt. Following Egypt there was the NATO action initiated by President Obama, though the United States led from behind, that toppled Moammar Gadhafi from power in Libya which destabilized the nation and is where a second core for ISIS was born and has begun to slaughter Egyptians as well as Libyans and threatening to mount an amphibious assault on Italy with the aim of sacking Rome. There have also been reports that ISIS aligned cells are already setting the groundwork to replace the Arab terror groups in Judea, Samaria and Gaza so that ISIS can war with Israel and presumably drive the Jews from their homelands once again. There are bands affiliated with ISIS marauding in the Sinai Peninsula which makes the coup in Egypt potentially a good thing even if it put General Sisi on the throne as a civilian, of course. The destabilization of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has reached from the eastern borders of Iran to the sandy shores of Morocco and the Atlantic Ocean. During President Obama’s terms in office Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has all but completed the transformation of Turkey from Secular society to an Islamic society and virtually enacting Sharia. About the only things that President Obama has yet to complete of the items I had feared were his goals for his Presidency to live-up to his standards and complete those particulars I suspected he desired to complete, he still has a way to go to make many of them but President Obama has functioned with a firm reliance that he is invulnerable and that he has effectively neutered the Congress and will simply allow the courts to fight out the rest of what he performs and he also hopes to be able to appoint some people to the Supreme Court as well as the lower courts. His wildest dream would be to replace two or three of the four conservative stalwarts on the Supreme Court with youthful and energetic justices who share his political views especially that the Constitution is dated and no longer applicable to modern society and thus to be largely ignored whenever it becomes and threat to establishing a just and fair society. Such a society would be based on equity in all things starting with wealth which requires complete establishment of the engine for redistribution of wealth, judicial decision based on racial, gender, sexual preference guidelines which would give special consideration to the favored peoples, the gutting of the United States military which was started by cancelling the production of the F-22 fighter jet along with numerous other new weapons systems, the reduction of Western nations military abilities such that they became susceptible to invasion incapable of resistance, open borders with amnesty and citizenship for all who desire to live in the United States and can actually get here with the Border Patrol redefined job to be the issuing of all items necessary for proof of citizenship, and to destroy the entirety of the United States nuclear arsenal and the ability for the manufacture of replacements once his terms in office are over. His grand design for the Middle East was for Iran to replace Israel as the hegemonic power, give the Muslim Brotherhood the power to rule in an nation which he succeeded in doing for one year in Egypt before the military responded to the demonstrators’ outcries for liberation from the sliding towards Islamist Sharia governance before it became too late, and the establishment of the Palestinian State even if that required it being consecrated in the corpse of Israel in the process. President Obama still has just under two years and he does not need to fear another election or the support of the people and he did manage to get Obamacare passed inside of his first two years so imagine what he can accomplish in his last two years. Meanwhile, we wait on next Tuesday when Prime Minister Netanyahu stands before the mostly combined Congress and potentially every vital, influential, powerful, wealthy, successful and empowered individuals and groups the worldwide and delivers THE Speech, let us hope it accomplishes something very positive in making that necessary changes in the path being taken currently by our world and alters the hearts and minds of those who hate and those who aim to destroy while preventing any further enfeeblement of the Western world as it nears a time of destiny which will decide the future of the human race possibly permanently. We may be coming up upon the final conflict in which the victors will lead us all beyond the cusp into new full of promises and great accomplishments with wonders beyond our imaginations or backward to a period where we live an unbelievably brutish existence lacking in civility or any refinement and thoughts of plenty and dreams of a future will be torn from our minds as time for such things do not exist in such a world.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 27, 2015

Mahmoud Abbas, The Man Who Could Not Say Yes

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,1967 Borders,1967 War,Absolutism,Administration,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab Authority,Arab League,Arab World,Arabs,Bible,Blood Libel,Calaphate,Civilization,Coverup,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Forced Solution,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Gaza,Government,Grand Mufti of Jerusalem Hussani,Greece,Green Line,Hamas,Hamas Charter,Hate,History,Illegal Immigration,Internal Pressures,International Politics,ISIS,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Home,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,Jordan River,Jordanian Pressure,Judea,Judean Hills,Kotel,Land for Peace,Leftist Pressures,Mahmoud Abbas,Meaning of Peace,Mediterranean Sea,Middle East,Muslim World,Muslims,Myth,Negev Desert,One State Solution,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Pressures,Peace Process,PLO,Politicized Findings,Politics,Promised Land,Recognize Israel,Response to Terrorism,Roman Empire,Samaria,Secular Interests,Security,Six Day War,Syria,Taqiyya,Temple Mount,United Nations Presures,United States Pressure,War of Independence,Western Wall,World Opinion,World Pressures,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:38 AM
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We recently got a glimpse into the cavernous abyss in which every proposal, be it for a lasting peace to something as simple as accepting responsibility over lands presumably already under your control. This deep, dark cavern sits in the central structure in Ramallah and is where the shreds of every offer to promote responsibility is finally sent to rest amongst the shattered tatters of every other offer of responsibility, whether offered or assigned, that were placed anywhere near the Arab leadership. This time the near bottomless trash bin of history was opened briefly to permit Mahmoud Abbas to effortlessly repeat his maneuver whereby any proffered responsibility or petition of a genuine peace is tossed to lie shattered and never to return. This time the item artfully dodged and allowed to casually crash amongst the ruins of hundreds, if not thousands, of deals offering peace, autonomous statehood, actual governance, working coexistence and for holding elections placed on hold since 2006 was an international initiative, supported by the United States, Europe, and Jordan, to radically change governmental control in Gaza placing all of governance under the control of the central leadership of the Palestinian Authority which would make Mahmoud responsible to represent all of the Palestinian Arab governance and responsibility to prepare all of the Arabs within the span of the unity government’s legal and singular responsibility.

 

If one were to peek inside the cavern of any responsibility they would see all forms of peace and other initiatives which all have one particular commonality; the placing of responsibility for over any areas, governing of any people, readying the Arab population for peace, ending the endless incitement, preventing otherwise endless terrorist attacks and numberless peace proposals which granted the Arab populations complete independence and made to stand on their own and resist coups and other assaults on the Arab leadership. All this document proffered was the finalizing of the assignments of the unity government over all the quasi-independent Arab populations be they in Judea and Samaria which were already the responsibility of Mahmoud Abbas and including Gaza within the responsible governance area to be the ruling entity responsible for all actions, providing civil obligations and maintaining order in preparation of a final peace agreement. This petition would have placed Chairman Abbas responsible over all border crossings in Gaza as well as the governance of Gaza and would have completed the formalization and unification of the supposedly unity government which stipulated a single governing entity formalized to be responsible of providing all governmental functions over Gaza exactly as Mahmoud Abbas is presumed to supply in Judea and Samaria. Since the unifying of rule must be such a daunting task, we can assume that taking responsibility for all of the Palestinian Arab population being governed by a singular leader and finally the reinitiating of elections and quasi-normal governance at an equal or superior level as that which had been provided when Gaza was under the control of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and friends is simply too much to ask. Hopefully, should Abbas begin to provide normal governance that he can also promote an order where citizens can expect to be granted equal levels of governance and respect such that should hostilities resume that they will not once again find themselves used again as human shields by terrorist fighters.

 

As long as the leadership of the Arabs residing within Israel but held mostly Jordanian, Syrian, Egyptian, Iraqi or Saudi Arabian citizenship and were foreign citizens who has settled within the British Mandate lands which became Israel and either fled the area voluntarily heeding the Mufti of Jerusalem when he called for all the Arabs residing within what became the Jewish state on May 15, 1948 and those few others who remained and took up arms against Israel when the fighting began and were thus expelled from Israel during her struggle to survive as a nation as seven nations’ armies attacked her on the very morning of her declaration intending to destroy the nation and slaughter her Jewish citizens and very likely also those Arabs who remained within Israel and either remained neutral or were amongst the few who fought alongside their Jewish countrymen in the believed fruitless fight to avoid the inevitable destruction of their new homeland of Israel, these Arabs remained as a part of Israel with citizenship and their children are now Israelis as are their grandchildren while the so-called Palestinian Arabs either fled and mostly joining the mujahidin fighters who were under the leadership of the Mufti of Jerusalem and were one of the militias who joined the war against the nascent state of Israel and are still insisting that they be given their own state replacing Israel thus finally attaining their goal of the eradication of Israel. This is the dirty little secret which is shared by the vast majority of the Arabs demanding a state of their own while refusing at every juncture to accept a state beside Israel living in peace and security, almost sounds like the end of an idealistic film about some mystical place where ibex, unicorns and other magical and actual but idealized creatures reside.

 

The root of this dirty little secret began long before Israel was even declared a state and well after the Roman dispersal of the Jews residing in Judea and Samaria and neighboring areas making up the lands of the Hebrews, the forefathers of modern Jewry. After the dispersal of a large majority of the Hebrews to the far flung corners of their Empire the Romans went one step further attempting to demean and remove any Hebrew of Jewish ties to the lands and changed its name by Roman Emperor Hadrian to Syria Palaestina. The name Palaestina, some spell it Palestina among other similar spellings translating it into some phonetic form of English, was chosen as a mispronunciation of the reference to Philistines, the ancient and longstanding enemies of the Jews who had settled in what is today called Gaza. The Philistines themselves were originally from Greece who separated from one of the Grecian city states and settled along the Mediterranean coasts in the area of Gaza and fought regularly with their neighboring Judean tribes. The Romans chose this name to add insult to injury of putting down the Bar-Kokhba Revolt of 132-135. There were no numbers of Arabs or others whose heritage began in the Arabian Peninsula, thus the Arabs of today are definitely not the descendants of the Philistines. Still, the desire and only peace acceptable to the Arabs is for an Arab state to replace Israel with the majority of the Jews either expelled or murdered. The riots in the 1920s through the 1930s were largely initiated by the Mufti of Jerusalem despite the fact that he spent much of the years of World War II in Berlin and met regularly with the German high command and Hitler and was claimed by some to have had an influence on the decisions around the ‘Final Solution’ of the Jews in Europe. The story goes that the Nazis were simply going to expel the Jews sending them to the British Mandate to overload the British with caring for this influx of millions of Jews to the area. It was the protestations from the Mufti of Jerusalem pleading that the Jews not be sent to contaminate his lands and demanded they be murdered instead. He then petitioned the Nazi high command to promise they would do the same to these Jews who insist on still residing in his lands thus removing what the Mufti of Jerusalem regarded as his lands.

 

The Arabs were offered a homeland country of their own as part of the formation of Israel. This offer drawn up and proffered at the November 29, 1947 United Nations General Assembly with the drafting Resolution 181 and sending it to the Zionist Congress and to the Arab League, the two governing boards for the Jews and Arabs respectively. The Zionist Congress agreed to the plan of dividing the lands half and half despite the fact that the majority of the lands intended for the Jews was the almost whole Negev Desert while despite the best farm lands being denoted for the Arabs, the Arab League refused Resolution 181 thus making it void and that was the end result of that attempt to form two states for two peoples living side-by-side in peace and security. After the war to annihilate the Jews at the very start of the Jewish State was halted by an armistice, not a peace treaty, an armistice, a Hudna, a temporary peace kept by both sides unless the forces of Islam are finally given the powers to defeat their enemies or ten years, whichever comes first. The armistice established the Green Line and left Gaza in Egyptian hands and Judea and Samaria as well as the eastern half of Jerusalem, thus Arabs having control over all of the lands the Arab Palestinians claim to desire today and not the destruction of Israel. Despite Arab ownership of those areas, there were no efforts to construct a new state for the Arabs, at least not until the forces of Islam conquered all of Israel and then they can establish yet another Arab nation in place of Israel, actually on her grave. The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was the first of the Arab inventions which targets the replacement of Israel with an Arab state and nothing less. This fully explains why the PLO was founded in 1964 which is a full three years before the Six Day War of 1967 placed lands under presumed Israeli occupation. The occupation is a misnomer as well as the Mandate lands Resolution 181 divided was the area from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. That was also the original lands for the land of Israel starting on May 15, 1948. Egypt was seen as occupying Gaza and Jordan was occupying Judea and Samaria which Jordan quickly renamed ‘West Bank’ as Judea and Samaria were just too Jewish for their likings. During the time from the end of the first war to eradicate Israel ending in 1949 and the Six Day War of 1967 the Arab world controlled the lands claimed by Arabs and never even a mention of forming another Arab state. Only after the Israelis liberated those lands which were intended for her and did belong to Israel on the morning of the War of Independence did the call come demanding Israel now form the Arab state they refused in 1947 at the United Nations.

 

Every offer since then has been refused as insufficient by those representing the Arabs who are claimed to have been evicted from their rightful and ancient homelands. Even when making peace with Egypt and later Jordan did either desire to reclaim the lands they had occupied, Gaza, Judea and Samaria. This rendered those lands as actually to be, and this is valid, liberated Israeli lands. Now Israel has left Gaza and allowed it to form a state independently as Israel surrendered all claims. The Problem is that until an Arab state is formed within Gaza it reverts to Israeli ownership, but this was the exact area that Mahmoud Abbas refused to take control over because he knows that would be placing an actual governing entity over Gaza thus making Gaza an independent nation and that would release Israel of any obligations to provide Gaza with the tons upon tons of goods, electricity, water, fuel and other necessities and niceties daily, and oddly even during this past summer’s fifty day operation Protective Edge Israel continued to provide truckloads of food, medical supplies and other aid even during the fighting and even continued to supply the water and electricity which Hamas and Islamic Jihad benefitted from and drank in well lighted bunkers the main bunker under the basement of Gaza’s largest hospital which remained untouched and fully supplied with electricity. Mahmoud Abbas simply refused to accept ownership of Gaza even though technically Hamas has surrendered all of Gaza to Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority. What does this mean for the unity government agreement? Have the Arabs decided to simply walk away from ownership of Gaza because to do so would force them to accept Gaza and the initial part of their state, a test case? A test case was exactly what Gaza was intended to produce. Initially the Palestinian Authority ruled over Gaza but that did not work out that way. Soon after the Palestinian Authority had control of Gaza but had failed as Hamas launched a coup and repelled the Palestinian Authority forces. This placed Hamas, a terrorist entity recognized as so throughout the Western world and beyond, in control of a nation technically. Nobody wanted that to become a state, until recently when the European Union decided Hamas was not all that evil anyways and declassified them from terrorist to just another branch of freedom fighters. The truth is that Israel conceded Gaza to be run as an independent state and to show the Arabs in Gaza were capable of self-rule. Thus far, as nobody claims to rule or organize such that Gaza is doing well for a land with no governance, but the true reality is that the Arabs desire one thing, the end of Israel and then a new Arab state, but never before. That is why even as Israel gave Gaza to the Palestinian Authority and their reaction was a complete failure, is Israel not rushing in to take back Gaza despite it being technically ungoverned. What we have in Gaza is a small state without declared governance being refused by Mahmoud Abbas, technically the actual ruler, Hamas still refusing to declare their responsibility but still making the decisions, collecting fees for using the infiltration tunnels they dug, and everything else they desire to perform but not rule. Hamas is keeping order along with Islamic Jihad and other groups but is now facing a technical threat from ISIS who have let it be known that they believe that all of the terror groups fighting Israel have lost their way and only they are pure enough to fight against Israel so should replace the Palestinian Authority, the PLO, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the rest of the alphabet soup and after testing the members of these other terror organizations they will accept those found to be sufficiently ISIS Muslims and the rest will likely face a mass execution video in their future. There are some very large and dangerous things swimming around the central Middle East at this moment in history that is unfolding in painfully slow motion. Perhaps we should thank G0d that they are progressing in slow motion as that initial ISIS conquest was things happening way too fast. What comes next is anybody’s guess. The big question for now is what would it entail for the future should ISIS replace the many separate and often infighting terror groups surrounding Israel? Let’s hope we do not ever find that out as it is way too scary to even contemplate. Way, way, way too Serious!

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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