Existential Crisis Most Likely to Bring New Elections

 

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Prime Minister in his own mind Yair Lapid had their fateful meeting where the real Prime Minister basically laid out what would be required from Yair Lapid and his party members in order to continue the current coalition. One of the problems which have struck the coalition has been the idea by the other party leaders that they should be the Prime Minister and run the government. Yair Lapid was rumored to even have attempted to patch together his own coalition and exercise a coup of sorts and take over the government through a deal with opposition parties thus forcing a new government without having new elections. Then we have the twisted dreams of Tzipi Livni who believes that she is fated to be Prime Minister because she honestly feels she has been robbed of her opportunity to lead the nation and will likely continue to pursue this phantom reality for the rest of her political life. There is the expected leader and head of the opposition parties Yitzhak Herzog, the leader of the Labor Party, has already claimed his rightful position as Prime Minister in waiting convinced that new elections will serve as the cleansing of the government of Prime Minister Netanyahu and instead bring a liberal wave sweeping Herzog into the Prime Minister slot. He was quoted speaking of the inevitable results of new elections stating, “The Labor party will lead the bloc that will win the election and give hope and a new reality for the citizens of Israel.” Apparently these Prime Ministerial candidates holding these delusional beliefs have either not read any of the polling done or they believe, as Yitzhak Herzog stated just the other day, that the polls are meaningless as they have sampled those they know and all of the people in their circle agree that new elections will place them at the head of the next government. If I were to ask those closest to me if I would win the coming elections and get to form the next coalition government I am sure that at least one or two would play along and assure me that I was not delusional, but they would also realize I was joking. Unfortunately for Israel, these Prime Minister wannabes are not joking and believe their own propaganda that they are the next chosen one.

 

This crisis was brought to a head when the proposed Jewish State Law which was intended to restate and reaffirm that Israel is the home of the Jewish People as well as a democracy where every citizen is guaranteed their respective rights as citizens. To any casual observer this law would be a no brainer but instead it became the initial protest vote where both Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni threatened their voting against the Jewish State Law should it be brought to the Knesset for a vote. This led to rewording the bill in attempts to make it palatable to the few who insisted on remaining unappeasable. The reality is that both party leaders were actually more upset that the governing coalition refused to tow their line and follow their agendas and instead were following the agenda put forth by the Prime Minister and originally voted for as part and parcel of joining the coalition upon its formation. So, it now appears that Israel is about to go into another election with all the usual posturing and backstabbing starting with each party holding their disparate meetings or votes or some combination thereof in order to present their list of proposed Knesset Ministers for well past their polled expectations to receive once the election results are finalized. The expectations from current polling, something that is almost meaningless as elections have historically brought surprises and twists beyond belief, has Likud remaining the largest block of Ministerial positions and thus most likely to be chosen to form the next coalition. There are indications that the next largest party might be Jewish Home which will be a surprise to the leftist parties who are expecting the Israeli voters to cast off both Likud and Jewish Home in favor of Labor, Meretz and Yesh Atid. The polling has also indicated that Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party will only manage to win half the number of seats in the Knesset than they did in their initial and surprising success in their inaugural presentation before the voting public in the last election. These polls also depicted Tzipi Livni’s HaTnuah Party as barely making a minimal entry number of seats if even breaking the threshold required to be represented in the Knesset, let alone receive the nod to form the next government. The one hope all of those vying to be the next Prime Minister can invest their aspirations upon is that the least likely thing which was unexpected by all the pollsters, party leaders, experts and prognosticators and initially dismissed as insignificant can still resonate with the Israeli public while remaining below the radar and surging forth on election day to produce the unexpected results in the next elections completely throwing all the news outlets an unseen curve which they will be at a loss to explain. The elections may prove once again that there is no such thing as a sure bet when the voting public gets to make the decisions.

 

Of course new elections are not yet guaranteed as it will take a vote in the Knesset to dissolve the parliament and hold elections and there is the possibility that Yair Lapid will return to the fold and swallow his pride for the good of the coalition and by such an action garner some new supporters which always is a desired result for any politician. Lapid was given five acts he must agree to if he desires to avoid new elections. These were to stop attacking the coalition and especially to end his criticisms of the building plans in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria and the Israeli relations with the United States. Next he was to transfer the six billion shekels to the defense budget as promised for their development of Iron Dome systems and armored personnel carriers. Third was to release the funding for the IDF relocation to the new Negev as was agreed upon by coalition agreements, something Lapid was blocking going so far as to have frozen this funding taking what he referred to as a principled stand. Fourth was for him to support the final version of the Jewish State Law. Finally he would be required to surrender and shelve the zero percent VAT relief bill he had been pushing for very determinedly. This final demand is expected to be the last straw and the one Lapid will refuse to meet thus likely forcing new elections.

 

One reading the polls would expect that Lapid would find it easier to remain in the current coalition where his Yesh Atid Party enjoys nineteen seats in the Knesset, a far cry better than the nine seats which many polls have indicated he would receive from new elections. The guessing here believes that Yesh Atid would probably suffer an even bigger embarrassment and only manage six or maybe seven seats and be on its way to extinction unless Yair Lapid could find a path back to the promises and apparent ideals he initially presented as the guiding essentials set forth in the last election. Those who suspected that much of the Zionist and nationalist line that Minister Lapid had professed was more ruse than ideological foundation as it was presented. These suspicions proved to be valid as once in the government Yair Lapid appeared to inexorably veer to the left and discard much of his nationalist agenda and instead attempt to inject his liberal slant into policy even at the expense of manipulating the budget which he had promised certain arrangements and allocations which he in the end did not deliver on. And this may only be the tip of the iceberg of potential changes which might be produced by holding new elections. The largest changes are always the ways in which the factions and parties arrange their own coalitions’ makeup. The most evident breakup has already taken place in which the one-time marriage of Likud with Yisrael Beiteinu which will also mean that Avigdor Lieberman will be leading his own party rather than being second on the combined ticket with Bibi Netanyahu taking the top slot. Netanyahu is probably expected by most to continue to take the top slot on any Likud ticket but that may not be as guaranteed as one might believe. There will be a credible challenge to Netanyahu in the voting for the Likud ticket as Danny Danon is expected to give Netanyahu a challenge from the right and even more nationalistic Zionist side of the party. We could potentially see a Likud ticket with a new face at the helm which may signal a changing of the guard within Likud even should Danny Danon fall short in his challenge. Danon is definitely one of the future leaders in Likud and the time is rapidly approaching for these new leaders to step forth. Other than the breakup of Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, there may be other alterations to more parties and combinations than could be readily covered in this article and are best left for after the parties have all filed and made public their intents. Then there will be the leadership challenges in parties other than Likud. We have to wait and see if the somewhat controversial leader of Jewish Home, Naftali Bennett, remains the top man on their ticket and whether they will continue with their current makeup or if some factions might go it on their own. Then there may be a contest for the leadership position of the Haredi parties, largely concerning in Shas and whether the more liberal and left leaning Arye Deri remains in the number one slot or if Eli Yishai or Ariel Atias will make a successful challenge from the more nationalist and right leaning side of the party. With the passing of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef there can now be a true contest for the leadership of the Shas Party. Labor just recently had a change in leadership with Yitzhak Herzog taking the top spot replacing Shelly Yachimovitch. After all is said and done the next government may very well have a similar outward appearance to the current coalition but within there will be some changes, just how many and how far this difference proves to be remains to be seen. If Likud has a new person topping their ticket, such a change could excite the electorate or perhaps the shock of Bibi Netanyahu being replaced will be too much for the Israeli public. Then there are some polls which have shown Jewish Home Party actually replacing Likud as the leader in the Knesset and thus very likely making their first name on their Knesset list the next Prime Minister. It still remains to be seen if that name will continue to be Naftali Bennett. And then again, there is still hope for yours truly as, after all, those I have talked to still hold out hope for me to be picked to form the next government, and why not? Talk about strange happenings, that would take the cake.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Netanyahu Speaks Truth, Is Anyone Listening?

Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu in a conversation with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon at their joint press statement on Friday stated, “I know, like me, you want to see the peace process which has been resumed, succeed. I know that like me you know that the most important thing is to prepare our respective peoples for peace and in this regard, I’m sure you are going to look into the abuse of UNRWA camps in Gaza that have been used purportedly for peace camps, but actually to instill the culture of hatred and the ideas of destroying Israel amidst Palestinian children. It’s very hard to habituate and prepare the next generation for peace when they’re told that Jews are the descendants of pigs and monkeys and that the Jewish State has no right to exist, so I trust that you will make sure that these abuses of UN goals and UN funds does not continue. As far as the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, we have to get to the root cause of the problem and the root cause was and remains the persistent refusal to recognize the Jewish State in any boundary. It doesn’t have to do with the settlements, that’s an issue that has to be resolved, but this is not the reason that we have a continual conflict. The conflict preceded the establishment of a single settlement by half a century and when we rooted out all the settlements in Gaza, the attacks continued because of this basic opposition to the Jewish State. I think it’s important to understand that if we build a few hundred apartments in Gilo or Ramot, or the other Jewish neighborhoods of Jerusalem, or in urban blocks that everybody knows, including the Palestinian negotiating team, according to the Al Jazeera leaks, will be part of the final peace map in Israel, I think these are not the real issues that we need to discuss.” The real issue is how to get a demilitarized Palestinian state to finally recognize and accept the one and only Jewish State. These and other matters of course will I’m sure inform our discussions. There are a few other things that I prefer to discuss with you privately, but I do look forward to discussing with you all these and other issues and I welcome you once again, Mr. Secretary, to Jerusalem.”

 

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s emphasis on the crux of the difficulties between the Israelis and the Palestinians, as well as the whole of the Arab and Muslim Worlds, has absolutely nothing to do with geography as far as the size of the Jewish State of Israel, but it is all about the sheer existence of Israel as a Jewish State and not a Muslim Arab State. The actual root of the problem is religious and societal and has nothing to do with borders. The current Israeli-Palestinian impasse is all about the same exact problem the Arab World had over the existence of Israel that caused the Six Day War in 1967 and the same basis and root as the Muslim World had when it supported the 1948 seven nation genocidal assault to eradicate the non-Muslim existence that was taunting the supremacy of Islam in the heart of its influence which Israel represented. The conflict with Israel being carried predominantly by the Palestinians in recent history is simply an adopted adaption of the original Arab-Israeli conflict which was being fought between the Arab and Muslim World from the very first recognition of the Jewish claim to a homeland in Eretz Yisroel in 1917 with the writing of the Balfour Declaration. This struggle to retain the pure essence of the Islamic lands, made even more threatening by its location in what is considered to be the heart of these lands, continued and experienced its initial and thus far greatest victory when the British formed the Arab Muslim State of Trans-Jordan from 78% of the original British Mandate Lands which had been set aside presumably for the founding of a Jewish homeland. There were continuing constant uprisings and attacks which boiled over into individually recognized major riotous aggressions throughout the 1920s, 1930s and 1940s right up to the formation of Israel in May of 1948, after which there have been three major multi-nation assaults made upon Israel starting with the initial thrust to eradicate the presence of Jewish independence in 1948 immediately after Israel declared independence. Apart from the three major wars known as the War for Israeli independence in 1948-9, the Six Day War in June of 1967, and the Yom Kippur War in October of 1973, there has been a persistent low grade conflict in the form of terrorist attacks in the forms of drive-by-shootings, car and truck bombs, suicide bombings, rock attacks at cars and individuals, crop burning, lone and small squads carrying out actual military style terror assaults such as the attack on the study library of the Mercaz HaRav yeshiva in Jerusalem where eight students were murdered and eleven others injured and other varieties of attacks. The low-grade warfare has existed continuously from the very first expressions of intent to reestablish the Jewish homeland in Israel through the establishment of said State both before and after the 1967 war which established what are the areas of contested ownership.

 

Further proof that the establishment of a Palestinian State would not end the conflict between the Jewish State and her neighbors was made plainly evident after Israel returned the entirety of Gaza pulling thousands of Jewish families from their homes, farms, businesses, towns, schools, synagogues erasing virtually all traces of the previous Jewish existence leaving only the economically viable greenhouses which were intended to allow the Palestinians to continue growing and producing exportable goods along with structures which could be used immediately by the Palestinians and exiting all the IDF bases with the troops being reassigned outside of Gaza returning everything to Palestinian rule yet the attacks continued and even took an even more dangerous form of launching ever larger rockets into Israel, a form of attack which was nearly impossible when the IDF patrolled within Gaza. The continued attacks and the actual increase in their potential for lethality out of Gaza after Israel relinquished all influence and ownership gave evidence of proof that when Palestinian leadership announced in Arabic in presentations to their own peoples that they would never give up fighting the Jews until the entirety of Palestine was freed and cleansed of any Jewish presence, or the even stronger position of Hamas and Hezballah of the complete and total eradication of any Jewish existence anywhere on the Earth. The hard kernel that is the central essence of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict which is but itself the center of a greater Arab-Israeli and Muslim-Jewish conflicts is the religious sanctioned eternal conflict which has its goal the eradication of Jewish existence before the supremacy of Islam which is considered to be necessary in some Islamic doctrines before the perfect age where Islam is dominant over all the peoples of the world can be realized. This is the true driving impetus that drives the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and stands immovable as it prevents any permanent solution to the Peace Process which allows Israel to continue to exist. The truth of the Palestinian aims is depicted when Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas demands that when he gets his Palestinian State it will completely cleansed of any Jewish presence and that not one Jew will be allowed to set foot in his Palestine. Still, the rest of the World continues to claim that once the Palestinian state has been formed that the Jews will be permitted to visit and pray at their holy sites which will be located within the Palestinians State. The truth will be that these sites will either be destroyed or rebuilt as Mosques where no non-Muslim will be allowed to tread. This claim of universal rights to pray at one’s holy sites regardless of their physical location held by much of the world and constantly stated as if it is a certainty and not just a possibility is denied by the claims of Mahmoud Abbas but the world ignores his words of exclusivity of the Islamic claims to the lands just as they disregard the true driving religious animosity and abhorrence for the Jewish people that sits at the center of the conflict and is taught and exclaimed throughout the Palestinian schools, media, songs, culture, textbooks, politics, and daily life running throughout their society as its life’s blood. Until this is addressed and the Palestinians are willing to accept Israel’s existence there can be no progress, no honest talks, no peace, and no solution to the myriad of contested differences. It is not borders, boundaries, independence or any other national existence standing against peaceful relations, it is the inability and lack of desire to allow a Jewish presence in what the Arabs believe is their eternal lands which can never be ceded. The conflict is rooted in societal and religious drives to purify the lands of alien influences which drive the Palestinian side of the conflict and what cannot be satisfied as long as any part of their perceived homelands is beyond their complete control and free of the occupier Jewish presence. Not changing that perception means that the conflict is not over no matter what borders are drawn, no matter where you place the lines on the maps, no matter how many pieces of paper are signed signifying peace in our time, nothing short of a complete reformation of Islam around the principles of the Mecca parts of the Quran will bring an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and numerous other conflicts which share the core problem in play in Israel.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Their Rush to Judge and Condemn the Innocent

The majority of the Israeli Press being so cosmopolitan, so progressive, and so Tel Aviv centric could not help themselves in their rush to condemn the “Hilltop Youth” for the riot that occurred at the Ephraim Brigade Base in Samaria in response to rumors that the IDF soldiers from the base had orders to destroy community of Ramat Gilad. The riot at the base was committed by teens and there were rumors of another settlement destruction despite ongoing negotiations to avoid such an event thus it had to be those “Settler” teens who build outposts on hilltops which are regularly destroyed by orders from Defense Minister Ehud Barak even against the wishes of many of the ruling coalition. After all, those settlers and their children live off the land, build their own homes without hiring architects or employing reputable contractors, and it shows. Why those people are so unsophisticated and uncultured, not at all like the cultured and civil society of north Tel Aviv and surrounding suburbs where most of the reporters and media reside. They had them convicted and were calling for allowing the IDF to shoot to kill those people if they resisted having their neighborhoods destroyed. Why couldn’t those crazy idealistic Zionists just live within the Green Line like good Jews? Why do they insist on stealing Palestinian lands? Who cares if many of the neighborhoods were originally built with the blessings and often funding of the government, so what? So some of them are building on land they have deeds of ownership that predate the Jordanian occupation. Didn’t the Jordanians revoke all Jewish ownership of those lands and give it to friends of Jordanian King Abdullah? Anyway, Supreme Court President Dorit Beinisch ruled that all non-State lands in Judea and Samaria are to be considered and treated as Arab owned land all evidence to the contrary be damned. Why can’t these way too Jewish Jews take the hint and leave the whole area where they are not wanted and let the Palestinians have their land back and then we will have peace, finally peace.

Well, I do agree with the Tel Aviv snobs that any riot against the IDF or disruption of the IDF in fulfilling their given orders should be punished to the full extent of the law. Where I differ is I prefer to wait until the investigation finds the actual culprits before jumping off the deep end and frothing hatreds from the mouth like a rabid dog. In some ways, I am even more distressed with who it now appears were the miscreants that attacked the IDF Ephraim Brigade Base in Samaria. It turns out that it was some Nationalist Extremists which is not a complete surprise and they need to be kept within the law with their protests and actions. The sad part was these particular Nationalists were from the Mercaz Harav Yeshiva in Jerusalem. The Mercaz Harav Yeshiva had no part in the planning or commission of this crime. This was done completely independent of the Mercaz Harav Yeshiva by a group of students who overreacted to a situation and should and will be held responsible for their crimes. The Mercaz Harav Yeshiva and the leaders and faculties of numerous other Yeshivas have condemned these acts as they should. The perpetrators of these heinous crimes have almost all been identified and will be tried for their crimes. Hopefully, whatever punishment the State decides to mete out will very likely be insignificant than what these Yeshiva students will face when their Rabbi gets his turn with them. They have disgraced their Yeshiva which has shamed their fellow students, their Rabbis, their teachers, the alumni of the Yeshiva, and worst of all committed a great sin before G-d. The punishment from the State will probably pale in comparison to what they have coming from their Yeshiva. They very likely will be expelled, the worst fate possible, and especially since they would have great difficulty being accepted at another Yeshiva after their shameful acts. The only bright light that will come of this disgraceful event is it will be used to assure that such does not ever occur again; at least such will never again be perpetrated by Yeshiva youth.

Fortunately, there also might be a few other turns for the better from this whole affair. First and foremost is that the Settler population has had their names cleared and the hilltop youth have been vindicated as every one of their groups denied having taken part in the riots at the base. With some luck, perhaps a few of those progressive and self-righteous urbanites will be less likely to simply jump to conclusions and falsely accuse and virtually convict those who have chosen to reside in the biblical heartland of Eretz Yisroel. Let us hope they have seen the pitfalls of leaping before all the facts have been made available. Maybe, with hope against hope, some of these Tel Aviv elites might take a trip and meet some of the people who live in Judea and Samaria. They might just lose some of their preconceived conceptions of who lives out on the front lines and who make Tel Aviv all that much safer by doing so. They may be in for some shocking truths. Not every person or community in Judea and Samaria are the knit Kippah crowd, a semi-derogatory reference to the religious Jews. Many are secular and are professionals who actually work in Tel Aviv. They may even find that some of the “settlers” are people from their office who they work with and joke with at the water cooler every day. You never know as the population of Judea and Samaria is probably the most derided and misconceived group in all of Israel. They span every dimension of Israeli society and it might be a real eye-opening experience to take a weekend tour of some of the communities and actually meet the people. They really are not from another planet; they are Israeli Jews just like the media who so often malign them. I realize that the Israelis living in Judea and Samaria tend to be more religious than the Jews living in north Tel Aviv and surrounding suburbs. Who would be surprised by such a finding? Not this writer.

Beyond the Cusp