Lessons of the Likud Primary Elections

 

The initial lesson almost everybody will claim is that nothing notable resulted from the Likud primary elections. Binyamin Netanyahu easily won the top spot and Danny Danon retained a seat in the Knesset. Yuli Edelstein, followed by Gilad Arden – then Israel Katz, Miri Regev, Silvan Shalom, Moshe Ya’alon, Ze’ev Elkin and Tzachi Hanegbi rounded out the top positions. The presumably big story is that none of the Likud leadership mentioned ceding land for making a Palestinian state, nor making conciliatory moves to placate the Demands of the European Union, nor surrendering lands demanded by the United Nations nor folding before pressures from United States President Obama nor buckling to demands made by the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) threats nor bending under to the compulsion emanating from any of the European governments nor mollifying to any pressures to relent claim to any land claims by any Arab or Muslim entity. This would have been laudable and reassuring except for the lack of claiming anything concerning the surrender of lands beyond the Green Line. Probably the one comment heard in the reporting was an assurance that the Western Wall would remain under Israeli control made by Tzipi Livni and Yitzhak Herzog which would have made the perfect invitation to address that the Likud would not only retain control over the Kotel but would keep all of Jerusalem, the settlements, the Jordan Valley, the Judean Hills and all of ancient Israel, but no such retort was presented. The question of what they are in favor of committing themselves to about the ancient homelands of the Jewish State, of the lands of Judea and Samaria is a question of paramount importance and the answer must not contain any ambiguities or vagueness and must be replied to without even the slightest hesitation of falter so as to be given spontaneously proving it is their default and singular position. Such must be the position and response to the state of mind of any candidate on any list before a true Zionist can feel comfort in granting any party their vote.

 

There was some disconcerting news pertaining to the subterfuge around efforts to keep Moshe Feiglin from attaining a safe position or even any position on the Likud list and with that news one might also question if these efforts also had an effect on Tzipi Hotovely just missing making the list of favorably situated spots when she missed being in the twentieth spot and that pushed her back to the twenty-sixth spot behind some seats reserved for party regional leadership and people chosen by the Prime Minister personally. Another step towards proving that Likud stands firmly in the nationalist camp and also the Zionist camp would be Benyamin Netanyahu placing Tzipi Hotovely in one of his discretionary spots assuring her a better chance at continuing to serve and have an additional Zionist voice in the Knesset. The next step which the Zionist camp must take careful notes to will be the filing by the parties of their official lists. If any Zionist belongs to a party which places within its list any appreciable numbers of candidates who have ever stated their approval to surrendering Judea and Samaria and permitting a new Arab state which will most assuredly become another Hamastan either through elections or by force of arms, just as did Gaza, then one should seriously consider giving their vote to another party. There should be little if any room for Ministers to the Knesset who would allow another debacle such as the events which formed Kadima and led to the unilateral disengagement from Gaza producing a similar result with Judea and Samaria. This was one fear that occupied my mind and led to great consternation when after the last elections when Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately chose to bring into his potential coalition Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah Party (הַתְּנוּעָה) which had not only surrender lands for peace members on her party list but also was headed with the ultimate land for peace person outside Labor, Meretz and the Arab Parties. When Tzipi Livni was then given the position to be the lead Israeli for negotiating and dealing with the Palestinians and all that would eventually entail, which came way too close to my worst fears, I said prayers that like Pharaoh, Abbas and companies’ hearts would harden and refuse every offer. That is apparently exactly what came to be as Abbas once again proved the wisdom of Abba Eban who stated referring to the forming of another Arab nation west of the Jordan River that, “The Arabs never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.”

 

It is always nerve racking when offers are made where almost the entirety of Judea and Samaria and especially if Eastern Jerusalem is included which initially guarantees that Jews will lose all access to the Temple Mount and the Kotel and additionally the Synagogues which were so painstakingly refurbished and restored will once again be torn asunder and be once again defiled. There is still one last thing which granting the Arabs and Abbas their state and Hamas taking control within one year or two is that within six months of Hamas rising to power Israel will once again be facing a war of extinction against who knows how many armies. The war that would follow Hamas taking over Judea, Samaria and Eastern Jerusalem would be frightful and potentially the most dangerous situation since the War of Independence as it is surreal yet potentially possible, if not probable should such a war come four or five years down the road, that the Arabs would have a number of European nations aiding their efforts and arming them with top of the line NATO equipment. It might even become a worst case scenario should Turkey also become a party to the conflict and demand that the rest of NATO come to the aid against the nation warring with Turkey, a fellow NATO member who is permitted such a request. Where it is unlikely, though not completely out of the realm of possibilities, that the United States would aid Turkey against Israel, but it is nowhere near as certain when one considers that the numerous European NATO members might comply with the request resulting in a much broader war and increases the potential for Israel to be defeated without, as assisted Israel in all her previous conflicts, the good L0rd assists once again.

 

The one thing that Israel needs to make sure does not happen is for the leftists make up the lead in any coalition, especially if the Prime Minister position will be occupied by Tzipi Livni as she most assuredly would surrender the store simply to assure herself a legacy. Tzipi Livni is driven to become the Prime Minister who achieved peace with the Arabs and received a Nobel Peace Prize for her heroic and valued leadership. The question with her deciding what is acceptable could potentially lead to her insisting that Israel retain Tel Aviv but hopefully she not surrender both the Negev Desert and the Galilee central plains and hills and certainly not surrender Netanya and Nahariya. Of course she might not get the opportunity as Yitzhak Herzog would be allowed first shot at surrendering almost all of Israel. Yitzhak Herzog recently vowed to shut down the World Zionist Organization’s Settlement Division, which functions as an operational arm of the government to build and establish communities and infrastructures in Judea and Samaria. Herzog stated on ‘Meet the Press’ Saturday night, “As Prime Minister I will close the Settlement Division and open it later to serve the Negev and the Galilee. We see again and again the same group takes over the interests of the state and Netanyahu gave in to it.” This is a blanket inference that the lands beyond the Green Line are of little concern and that Yitzhak Herzog is willing to surrender all of Judea and Samaria forcing almost one-million Jews from their homes, something which the Israeli voters must take the efforts to avoid giving this man any power. Not only is that necessary but the Israeli voters must make certain that whichever party gets to form the next government is a party headed by a devout and solid Zionist who knows that not only without Jerusalem does Israel fail, but also without Hevron, Shechem, Jericho, and possibly also Bethlehem. These are the minimalist demands and retaining all the lands promised by treaties are reserved solely for a Jewish State where the peoples living within have individual rights, commercial rights, property rights and religious rights but political rights are reserved for the Jews when voting and ruling the nation come into question. This was decided immediately after World War I and was ratified by the European nations, Japan and the United States and ratified by the United Nations. Without going into detail, here is the thumbnail sketch one more time, The San Remo Conference implemented the Balfour Declaration word for word as their conclusion; following that decision the British had the mandate and proposed splitting the mandate with three-quarters approximately was to be utilized for an Arab state and would be defined as the lands west of the Jordan River while the lands east of the Jordan River, that less than one-quarter of the Mandate lands, would be reserved into perpetuity for the Jewish State where all people living within were to keep their properties, businesses, religious rights, civil rights and all rights with the exception of political rights which could be granted them if and only if the Jewish government deemed them to have such powers. All of these treaties were adopted subsequently by the United Nations under Article 80. Get it, got it, good!

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Existential Crisis Most Likely to Bring New Elections

 

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Prime Minister in his own mind Yair Lapid had their fateful meeting where the real Prime Minister basically laid out what would be required from Yair Lapid and his party members in order to continue the current coalition. One of the problems which have struck the coalition has been the idea by the other party leaders that they should be the Prime Minister and run the government. Yair Lapid was rumored to even have attempted to patch together his own coalition and exercise a coup of sorts and take over the government through a deal with opposition parties thus forcing a new government without having new elections. Then we have the twisted dreams of Tzipi Livni who believes that she is fated to be Prime Minister because she honestly feels she has been robbed of her opportunity to lead the nation and will likely continue to pursue this phantom reality for the rest of her political life. There is the expected leader and head of the opposition parties Yitzhak Herzog, the leader of the Labor Party, has already claimed his rightful position as Prime Minister in waiting convinced that new elections will serve as the cleansing of the government of Prime Minister Netanyahu and instead bring a liberal wave sweeping Herzog into the Prime Minister slot. He was quoted speaking of the inevitable results of new elections stating, “The Labor party will lead the bloc that will win the election and give hope and a new reality for the citizens of Israel.” Apparently these Prime Ministerial candidates holding these delusional beliefs have either not read any of the polling done or they believe, as Yitzhak Herzog stated just the other day, that the polls are meaningless as they have sampled those they know and all of the people in their circle agree that new elections will place them at the head of the next government. If I were to ask those closest to me if I would win the coming elections and get to form the next coalition government I am sure that at least one or two would play along and assure me that I was not delusional, but they would also realize I was joking. Unfortunately for Israel, these Prime Minister wannabes are not joking and believe their own propaganda that they are the next chosen one.

 

This crisis was brought to a head when the proposed Jewish State Law which was intended to restate and reaffirm that Israel is the home of the Jewish People as well as a democracy where every citizen is guaranteed their respective rights as citizens. To any casual observer this law would be a no brainer but instead it became the initial protest vote where both Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni threatened their voting against the Jewish State Law should it be brought to the Knesset for a vote. This led to rewording the bill in attempts to make it palatable to the few who insisted on remaining unappeasable. The reality is that both party leaders were actually more upset that the governing coalition refused to tow their line and follow their agendas and instead were following the agenda put forth by the Prime Minister and originally voted for as part and parcel of joining the coalition upon its formation. So, it now appears that Israel is about to go into another election with all the usual posturing and backstabbing starting with each party holding their disparate meetings or votes or some combination thereof in order to present their list of proposed Knesset Ministers for well past their polled expectations to receive once the election results are finalized. The expectations from current polling, something that is almost meaningless as elections have historically brought surprises and twists beyond belief, has Likud remaining the largest block of Ministerial positions and thus most likely to be chosen to form the next coalition. There are indications that the next largest party might be Jewish Home which will be a surprise to the leftist parties who are expecting the Israeli voters to cast off both Likud and Jewish Home in favor of Labor, Meretz and Yesh Atid. The polling has also indicated that Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party will only manage to win half the number of seats in the Knesset than they did in their initial and surprising success in their inaugural presentation before the voting public in the last election. These polls also depicted Tzipi Livni’s HaTnuah Party as barely making a minimal entry number of seats if even breaking the threshold required to be represented in the Knesset, let alone receive the nod to form the next government. The one hope all of those vying to be the next Prime Minister can invest their aspirations upon is that the least likely thing which was unexpected by all the pollsters, party leaders, experts and prognosticators and initially dismissed as insignificant can still resonate with the Israeli public while remaining below the radar and surging forth on election day to produce the unexpected results in the next elections completely throwing all the news outlets an unseen curve which they will be at a loss to explain. The elections may prove once again that there is no such thing as a sure bet when the voting public gets to make the decisions.

 

Of course new elections are not yet guaranteed as it will take a vote in the Knesset to dissolve the parliament and hold elections and there is the possibility that Yair Lapid will return to the fold and swallow his pride for the good of the coalition and by such an action garner some new supporters which always is a desired result for any politician. Lapid was given five acts he must agree to if he desires to avoid new elections. These were to stop attacking the coalition and especially to end his criticisms of the building plans in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria and the Israeli relations with the United States. Next he was to transfer the six billion shekels to the defense budget as promised for their development of Iron Dome systems and armored personnel carriers. Third was to release the funding for the IDF relocation to the new Negev as was agreed upon by coalition agreements, something Lapid was blocking going so far as to have frozen this funding taking what he referred to as a principled stand. Fourth was for him to support the final version of the Jewish State Law. Finally he would be required to surrender and shelve the zero percent VAT relief bill he had been pushing for very determinedly. This final demand is expected to be the last straw and the one Lapid will refuse to meet thus likely forcing new elections.

 

One reading the polls would expect that Lapid would find it easier to remain in the current coalition where his Yesh Atid Party enjoys nineteen seats in the Knesset, a far cry better than the nine seats which many polls have indicated he would receive from new elections. The guessing here believes that Yesh Atid would probably suffer an even bigger embarrassment and only manage six or maybe seven seats and be on its way to extinction unless Yair Lapid could find a path back to the promises and apparent ideals he initially presented as the guiding essentials set forth in the last election. Those who suspected that much of the Zionist and nationalist line that Minister Lapid had professed was more ruse than ideological foundation as it was presented. These suspicions proved to be valid as once in the government Yair Lapid appeared to inexorably veer to the left and discard much of his nationalist agenda and instead attempt to inject his liberal slant into policy even at the expense of manipulating the budget which he had promised certain arrangements and allocations which he in the end did not deliver on. And this may only be the tip of the iceberg of potential changes which might be produced by holding new elections. The largest changes are always the ways in which the factions and parties arrange their own coalitions’ makeup. The most evident breakup has already taken place in which the one-time marriage of Likud with Yisrael Beiteinu which will also mean that Avigdor Lieberman will be leading his own party rather than being second on the combined ticket with Bibi Netanyahu taking the top slot. Netanyahu is probably expected by most to continue to take the top slot on any Likud ticket but that may not be as guaranteed as one might believe. There will be a credible challenge to Netanyahu in the voting for the Likud ticket as Danny Danon is expected to give Netanyahu a challenge from the right and even more nationalistic Zionist side of the party. We could potentially see a Likud ticket with a new face at the helm which may signal a changing of the guard within Likud even should Danny Danon fall short in his challenge. Danon is definitely one of the future leaders in Likud and the time is rapidly approaching for these new leaders to step forth. Other than the breakup of Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, there may be other alterations to more parties and combinations than could be readily covered in this article and are best left for after the parties have all filed and made public their intents. Then there will be the leadership challenges in parties other than Likud. We have to wait and see if the somewhat controversial leader of Jewish Home, Naftali Bennett, remains the top man on their ticket and whether they will continue with their current makeup or if some factions might go it on their own. Then there may be a contest for the leadership position of the Haredi parties, largely concerning in Shas and whether the more liberal and left leaning Arye Deri remains in the number one slot or if Eli Yishai or Ariel Atias will make a successful challenge from the more nationalist and right leaning side of the party. With the passing of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef there can now be a true contest for the leadership of the Shas Party. Labor just recently had a change in leadership with Yitzhak Herzog taking the top spot replacing Shelly Yachimovitch. After all is said and done the next government may very well have a similar outward appearance to the current coalition but within there will be some changes, just how many and how far this difference proves to be remains to be seen. If Likud has a new person topping their ticket, such a change could excite the electorate or perhaps the shock of Bibi Netanyahu being replaced will be too much for the Israeli public. Then there are some polls which have shown Jewish Home Party actually replacing Likud as the leader in the Knesset and thus very likely making their first name on their Knesset list the next Prime Minister. It still remains to be seen if that name will continue to be Naftali Bennett. And then again, there is still hope for yours truly as, after all, those I have talked to still hold out hope for me to be picked to form the next government, and why not? Talk about strange happenings, that would take the cake.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Time’s Up; Netanyahu’s Game Has Played Out

The importance of the vote today in the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, is of epic proportions. On this vote lies so many items in disparate areas all tied together around Prime Minister Netanyahu. Almost a fortnight ago, Prime Minister Netanyahu gave his word to Minister of the Knesset Yaakov Katz (National Union) that he would not oppose his Regulation Bill which would negate the Supreme Court ruling for destruction of five residential buildings in the Givat HaUlpana section of Beit El community should MK Katz postpone its introduction for a two week period. Well, MK Katz complied with the leader of the coalition, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and for his compliance, Prime Minister Netanyahu has gone back on his word and threatens to dismiss any coalition Minister who dares oppose his wishes and support the legalization legislation. This has already caused two of the member parties of the coalition, Yisrael Beytenu and Shas, to choose to be absent as they had previously decided they would support the Regulation Bill. Their absence removes any possibility that their parties would be thrown from the coalition. There are still some members of the Prime Minister’s own party, Likud, who plan to challenge his authority and support the bill. It will remain to see if Netanyahu follows through on his threat to remove those voting for the Regulation Bill. Those who have stated their intent to vote in favor despite the threat to their positions are Ministers Yuli-Yoel Edelstein, Gila Gamliel, Ayoob Kara and Daniel Hershkowitz.

So, why don’t we take a simple trip through the entire methods, manipulations, coercions and finagling done by Prime Minister Netanyahu in order to defeat those forces who had colluded to support the Regulation Bill and thus provide the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria some legal coverage against the political onslaught now being waged to destroy their communities, homes, lives, and in many cases livelihoods. When the destruction order first arrived at the front door of the Knesset after the Supreme Court decided that the five buildings in question in Givat HaUlpana, Beit El, the nationalist wing of Likud in concert with other nationalist Knesset members initiated a legislated solution to prevent the destruction and provide an alternative to future destructions. This was expected to be rejected by Defense Minister Ehud Barak and likely also Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein. Up to this case it had been assumed that Prime Minister Netanyahu was in agreement with the nationalist camp against the demolitions of communities in Judea and Samaria. This became the straw that would break the camel’s back. It also shined light on the real, true Netanyahu. Now the Prime Minister faced something he had been dancing deftly to avoid, actual legislation which had popular backing being introduced onto the floor of the Knesset with no conceivable way to prevent it short of preventing the demolition of HaUlpana by other methods. But that was a problem as Prime Minister Netanyahu was actually in favor of the demolitions and has secretively been favoring a unilateral disengagement from Judea and Samaria surrendering the West Bank to the Palestinian Authority in similar manner as previous Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. So, Prime Minister Netanyahu faced a difficult situation as if he were to come out of the closet and play his cards in favor of the demolition his coalition would collapse and he would be forced to call for elections. This was not something favorable and held some pit falls for Netanyahu.

Prime Minister Netanyahu realized at the very start that should he come clean and admit to favoring demolitions, he would face an impossible battle as his party, Likud, has stated in its platform its position against the demolitions. This meant he could not reveal himself before the next elections were held, but they are not scheduled for about another year and a half. What was he to do? I have to hand it to Prime Minister Netanyahu; he came up with a brilliant plan which forced some who thought they were in opposition to the presumed nationalism of the Prime Minister to join him or face electoral oblivion. Netanyahu instead of announcing a position on the Ulpana demolition claimed that what he wished he could do was impossible with the slight majority held by his coalition and in order to gain a stronger position he was going to call for new elections. The nationalists took this as a sign that Netanyahu was behind them and was going to take their nationalist message and present it to an approving public and form a stronger and even more nationalists, pro-settler government in order to legalize all the communities in Judea and Samaria and put an end once and for all to the political demolitions being pushed by the extreme leftists and the post-Zionists. This placed the Kadima Party in a position where they were facing a loss of power of immense proportions. The polling showed that Kadima would fall from their current twenty-eight seats down to as few as six or as many as possibly nine, either way they were going to lose BIG!

The new leader of Kadima, Shaul Mofaz, met with Prime Minister Netanyahu and they conceived of a way for Kadima to avoid political oblivion, have Kadima join the coalition. It is even likely that Netanyahu confided in Shaul Mofaz that he secretly supported not only the demolitions, but a complete, unilateral withdrawal from the vast majority of the so-called West Bank. This gave Prime Minister Netanyahu his necessary super-coalition which was completely safe from any threat from any group or parties threatening to pull down the coalition and force new elections. Now, with Kadima on board, Prime Minister Netanyahu could actually lose every single member’s support of Likud Ministers, his own party, and the coalition would still stand. With this huge number in the coalition, Netanyahu was free to come out of the closet and admit to his support of demolitions beginning with the Ulpana neighborhood. Sure, he threw the nationalists a bone promising to build ten residences for every one demolished knowing full well that between having to get it through the bureaucracy and resist leftist challenges in the courts, including the anti-settlement Supreme Court, the promised units would likely never be built. Now we need to look at what Prime Minister Netanyahu plans to do down the road with remaining time before the next elections.

I cannot see any path where Prime Minister Netanyahu remains in a Likud Party without the expulsion of its nationalist faction who could find a home with the Jewish Home Party. This would likely end the hopes of Moshe Feiglin to head an electoral ticket and become Prime Minister himself. Barring the nationalists departing Likud, expect that at some time as the election nears that Prime Minister Netanyahu will announce that he and Shaul Mofaz are reinvigorating Kadima as the true middle-of-the-road political party it was supposed to be with the two of them sharing the top position. Netanyahu will head the ticket under the Kadima Party which will also include Ehud Barak and his short-lived Independence Party joining the new and improved Kadima Party. This will leave the Likud Party in disarray with this announcement coming too close to the elections to allow them to get their house in order and take stock of who left with Netanyahu and who remains in Likud. I actually hope that the nationalists and others who support ending these demolitions or are opposed to a unilateral disengagement from Judea and Samaria giving the Palestinian Authority possession of vast stretches of land within their so-called West Bank regain control of the Likud Party. Even giving them all of the West Bank and even half of Jerusalem including all of the Old City will not end the terror war and claims of occupation by the Palestinian leadership. What comes next other than the likely unilateral disengagement or some similar form of complete surrender to the Palestinian terror machine is difficult to fathom, as if that would not be enough to endanger all of Israel sufficiently.

Would Netanyahu also give in to the Obama demands and return the Golan Heights to Syria once Assad has been removed and replaced by the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood? I would not bet against it at this point. Whatever Prime Minister Netanyahu has in mind, odds are it will be as surprising as was Prime Minister Ariel Sharon with his unilateral disengagement of Gaza which worked out so wondrously. One would think that the lesson of Sharon, Gaza and the ensuing rocket barrages and other difficulties would have taught even Netanyahu that giving land to the Palestinians in any manner is something that only will endanger Israel and her citizens, all of the citizens and not just the Jews. This move by Netanyahu to completely turn against those who elected him and break almost every promise he had made to MK Katz, the members of Likud, the coalition member parties, particularly Shas and Yisrael Beytenu, and to Israelis in general is heartbreaking and with any luck will take Prime Minister Netanyahu, Kadima Leader Shaul Mofaz, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and all those who follow their political lead to political oblivion and being unable to even garner sufficient votes to enable minimal seats in any future Knesset. I so dearly hope this is Netanyahu’s political Waterloo.

Beyond the Cusp