Beyond the Cusp

August 4, 2015

What is Already Resulting From the Iran Deal?

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There are already sales being arranged despite the arms embargo not being lifted for five years. Does anyone believe these sales are being scheduled for anything longer than immediately after the money is in the bank? You have probably heard about the Russian sale of the S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems which was prevented a while back by pressure from Israel for Russia to respect the existing United Nations arms embargo. Well, according to Iran that United Nations Arms Embargo was lifted the minute the agreement was reached and signed, well, signed by Russia, China, Iran, France, Germany, and Great Britain and passed by the United Nations Security Council as a Chapter Seven binding resolution so no longer necessary for the United States to sign the agreement as the United Nations has made it binding on every United Nations member. The United States could still decide as a policy not to sell arms to Iran and could even place trade sanctions on nation who do sell arms to Iran; but this would simply leave the United States open for a suit for impeding free trade. Meanwhile Russia has closed the S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems and the Chinese have struck a deal to sell Iran one-hundred-fifty Chengdu J-10 sophisticated jet fighters with Israeli avionics and finally, so far, back to Russia who is set to sell Iran two-hundred-fifty highly-advanced Sukhoi-Su-30MK1 heavy-fighter-bombers as well as one-hundred IL78 MKI tanker aircraft which with the Chinese aircraft providing tactical air cover and the Su-30s figured for both bombing and long-range intercepts or electronic interference to foil ground interceptors the Iranians could bring a heavy air assault with air refueling extending the range bringing much of MENA and Europe within range of air assault. This as well as the advancing Iranian missile technology increasing range and accuracy provides Iran with just one more method for bringing Egypt, Israel, Turkey and beyond within Iranian range for multiple assault combining sufficient assault vehicles to overwhelm any defensive system no matter how many stages and overlap exists or the number of aircraft which can be put into the air to assist with the defense. Within two years Iran will have full range ICBMs with greater range than their present ballistic missiles and even threshold continental ballistic missiles which can reach beyond Paris and with a limited warhead weight even reach London with a reasonable degree of accuracy.

 

Even the limited warhead load limit permitting these missiles reaching London they could still carry nuclear warheads once Iran masters a modicum of miniaturization of an atomic bomb, such a device could conceivably strike London thus bringing every European capital within range with the exceptions of Ireland and Portugal. Does this make any of those nations who have been criticizing Israel for sounding the alarm still feel comfortable? Saudi Arabia feels so confident that they have confirmed the standing of their relationship with Pakistan that should they require nuclear weapons on the quick and quiet that the Pakistani government remembers the debt owed the Saudi Royal family for financing much of their crash nuclear emergency program to equalize their standing against a newly nuclear armed India. So, please do not interpret the silence from Saudi Arabia as being a sign of their comfort with the newly entry of Iran as virtually the next nuclear armed nation as they are not at peace about such an occurrence. Neither is Egypt at ease with this situation as is evident from their assisting Saudi Arabia in their attempts to assist the exiled government of Yemen to retake their nation from the Iranian armed Houthis who broke out of their tribal mountain areas which the arms and support of Iran which provided them with superior weaponry and training making their military abilities far exceed their previous abilities. With the armaments which the Iranians are going to be capable of providing their proxies in the near future could alter a number of conflicts and even the rule of one nation over the coming months or at the longest a year or two. The immediate nation under threat is obviously Yemen followed likely by Iraq then either Lebanon or Syria.

 

Additionally with the recent agreement between Turkey and the United States to fight against those forces challenging the Syrian rebels which to the average Western citizen, especially those in the United States, such a deal would imply they would be targeting the Islamic State but initial reports would imply that the initial targeting has been against the Kurdish forces. This comes on top of thus far unconfirmed reports that United States has been charging areas where Islamic State was operating but after-mission reports showed that the strikes struck areas immediately before Islamic State forces advanced into these areas. These unconfirmed reports tend to lend credence that orders were given to assist the Islamic State in areas where they border Kurdish controlled areas. These reports come along with the report that Turkey has finally allowed for the United States to fly missions from airbases in Turkey. That makes all of this appear to almost make sense, especially since the Kurdish party made sufficient headway taking a respectable number of seats which preventing President Erdogan’s PKK Party from attaining their usual majority of seats making it incapable of making a coalition by itself. This has led to some very distasteful moves by Erdogan including attempting to strip the Kurdish Parliamentary members of their immunity from prosecution so that he can bring charges against them and once they have been removed in sufficient numbers after speedy trials and their party disgraced then claim that no coalition is able to be reached and have new elections in which without the Kurdish party’s influence the PKK should easily gain their usual position of being a one party coalition and complete the conversion of Turkey from the free society that Mustafa Kemal Ataturk transformed Turkey to after the fall of the Ottoman Empire was disbanded after its having been on the losing side of World War I and make it basically a dictatorship with Erdogan as their President for life with absolute powers. This result is supported fully by the Turkish branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.

 

Should Erdogan succeed in completing his refashioning Turkey after his own image, then comes the big question, which side will Erdogan fall this time the question is given and he needs to choose once the Kurds have been ejected out of Syria and possibly Turkey as well, placing the fortunate Kurds making their way to norther Iraq, and Erdogan can either attempt to hide in what he believes fortress Turkey or he can choose Islamic State, a very risky group with which for Erdogan to align, or align with Bashir al-Assad and the Iranian Mullahs and Supreme Leader, an alignment Erdogan once played with but pulled back when trouble began at home needing his full efforts to resolve. Should Turkey align with Iran and come into a symbiosis that could place NATO in danger of having to support Turkey if they were to become involved in an Iranian war against Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Gulf States, Jordan and even, believe it or not, Israel and requests NATO assistance, then what does the rest of Europe and the United States do as NATO members and treaty bound to assist Turkey in any armed struggle. Would NATO refuse because the war is not a threat to Turkey itself and is being fought far from Turkish lands and thus Turkey is not under threat of invasion and their people would be safe if Turkey simply ended their offensive invasion against a nation previously not hostile to Turkey or actually even Iran or any of their neighbors until outside influences forced issues such as in the Yemeni Civil War where Iran has armed the Houthis against the government. The Middle East will explode in ten different ways once Iran can announce or be suspected of having manufactured nuclear weapons which would make Iran a hegemonic threat to the entirety of not just the Middle East but much of the rest of MENA and Europe not to mention the large chunk of Asia which would become threatened from any Iranian designs in their direction. Then, within a short period of time they will have mastered further rocket technology allowing their development of ICBMs.

 

As it is, both North Korea and Iran have orbited satellites which travelled on a south polar orbit and have already practiced and sent satellites with payloads sufficient to represent an EMP size and weight nuclear warhead such that they circled over the United States entering from the south perfectly in the hole in the radar and intercept sites which is a known soft spots in defenses yet are being ignored by Congress despite some warnings by military members. There are a number of articles which deal with these threats as follows: Center for Security Policy Jim Woolsey: Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) is existential threat to America from July 30, 2013, which means this possible threat was known from long before the negotiations with Iran were finalized and we appeared to have a rather cavalier attitude at best, and Experts: Iran Now a Nuclear-Ready State, Missiles Capable of Hitting US By William R. Graham, Henry F. Cooper, Fritz Ermarth, and Peter Vincent Pry from Sunday, Feb 1, 2015, and finally Op-Ed: EMP Blackout Could Be Closer than You Think by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry and Ambassador to the Negotiation on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, former Director of Central Intelligence, former Undersecretary of the Navy and Co-Chair of the EMP Coalition Jim Woolsey from November 07, 2013. This is only one manner in which Iran (or North Korea) could use an alternate system which involves firing a single stage and likely solid fuel missile from within a freighter or cargo container ship. Iran has proven this as not only a possibility, but an actual usable tactic which they tested firing missiles from the Caspian Sea deep into the Iranian desert in the southern regions which were furthest distance from the ship repeatedly and have become extremely proficient. Such an attack could be carried out from any coastal area on the United States including from the Gulf of Mexico utilizing that very same blind area in the United States defenses and would reach the central location of the United States then shoot up to the necessary altitude and detonate knocking out the transformers almost from the Atlantic coast to the Pacific coast and from Texas on northward into central Canada leaving a large percentage of the United States to die over the first year and the likelihood that the system would be returned to service would take at least a decade and very possibly several decades. The scenario has been known and the military has taken some elementary steps but is mostly depending that their equipment already being hardened. This would work for an interim period as their generator trucks and backup generators would permit their bases to function short term. The military also realize that they would at some point have to return to the civilian power grid and that is where their problems would begin. Food preservation would have an initial problem but it would take military intervention to even begin to truck food from farms to the cities. Societal cohesion would be disrupted and the cities would become war zones where the gangs would have the initial upper hand as they are the ones with weapons.

 

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories.

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories.

 

 

The problem with the Iranian nuclear deal is on so many levels that one can hardly know where to begin. Listing the obvious ramification of freeing up over one-hundred-fifty-billion-dollars and infusing the Iranian coffers will have long reaching ramifications. Believing that the majority of these funds will be used to relieve the suffering of the poorest in Iranian society is a bit Pollyannish as they have already spent almost half the incoming cash on weapons from Russia and China alone. These purchases are sufficient to start a formidable Air Force even if one were to be starting from scratch. About the only items not on their shopping list are training aircraft for the pilots to start their learning with. One must assume that the Iranians will be using whatever aircraft remained in their inventory as trainers and then assigning pilots according to their abilities. The Iranians had stated quite blatantly and fiercely that their plans were to install their latest and greatest centrifuges to use in their cascades and start production of enriched uranium immediately. President Obama has mislead the American public when he stated that the Iranians would not have any uranium enriched to the twenty-percent level which is one step from HEU (highly enriched uranium) which was presumably making the world safe from Iran being capable of making sufficient quantities of HEU without the inspectors reaching an inspection date and then they would easily catch Iran if there had been any cheating as there simply were too many steps before they could produce weapons grade uranium.

 

This assumption was made on the theory that the Iranians would need at least two centrifuge cascades running around the clock for Iran with the centrifuges permitted by the agreement, as President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry figured, would take Iran close to a year. The problem this poses is simple, these newest centrifuges that Iran plans on installing can take the three-percent uranium and run it through a cascade which would appear nearly identical to the cascades with the older centrifuges unless somebody did a close inspection which would require knowledge of exactly what each version looked like and exactly how to tell them apart. The only matter they could easily discern would be that all the centrifuges were of the same variety and had recently been tested and verified safe for use. A cascade of the newest and greatest centrifuges, if information we have seen is correct, arranged in a cascade in an identical manner they would be capable of taking three-percent or slightly higher such as five percent, both of which are levels they are permitted to have in their stores and from which they will be permitted to run through what for all intents and purposes appears to be a standard cascade which would only produce approximately twenty-percent to twenty-five-percent enriched uranium. With the newest centrifuges in a similar cascade, which would not in and of itself arouse any superstition, the Iranians would be capable, with a few minor adjustments; to produce weapons grade ninety-plus-percent HEU in one run. That is one run taking three to five percent uranium and making HEU bomb ready uranium in a single run. Such is the difference between the earlier centrifuges and their latest designs and the agreement permits further studies and designing of even more efficient centrifuges which the world can feel guaranteed will be put into service once it proves to be efficient and sturdy thus reducing the time required to reach weapons grade uranium.

 

The agreement which we have all seen and which can be viewed in an easy to read format provided by a Russian outlet and translated to English and edited by Beyond the Cusp to remove wasteful formatting which made the agreement nearly impossible to follow is titled Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации which we assumed meant “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Vienna,” dated 14 July 2015. The problem starts when we find out that there is a second agreement which was formulated through indirect communications with both sides sending their communication via the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and never negotiating directly. This apparent exercise in insanity had a very good and deceitful purpose, neither side could reveal the context of the deliberations between the other’s side with the IAEA as such negotiations are guaranteed secret and secure. Where the White House could give out their versions of the negotiations but not the items which were permitted them under an oath of secrecy, which in this particular case the White House will have developed morality and will observe their promises of silence. What makes this situation all the more convoluted is that we cannot know what the final agreement stated and it is entirely possible that the entirety of the White House conversation might very well start with an outline with stipulations, restrictions, requirements and establishing a serious and intense inspection routine including immediate snap inspections of every nuclear site, working or idled by the deal such that the starting demands would even satisfy Senator Tom Cotton. The entirety of the rest of the White House negotiations with Iran might then consist of a series of ‘yes’ and ‘no’ statement with a number interspersed and maybe even a few word phrase but nothing which could lead one to any conclusions. The two items you will be guaranteed to never see would not be the Iranian initial expressions of acceptable conditions as their initial description of their side and its desires and expectations nor would you see the final document and its stipulations, rights and requirements on both sides.

 

Some of the items which we have learned in the weeks since the initial agreement was released with its numerous different variations as each side took their own liberties when translating it to their own language and liking. We have found out that the United States will be providing protection from cyber-attacks on the Iranian nuclear projects. The United States is sworn to protect Iran from and air assault on their territories. The United States will share with Iran the blueprints and specification of the United States’ most advanced centrifuge. What other schematics and diagrams the United States has promised to provide the Iranians remains a mystery. When this agreement finally leads to the inevitability it has put into motion, then the biggest question will be on which side has the United States chosen to support, the Iranian Axis which by then will control: the bulk of the world’s oil coming from the Middle East, the Straits of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Waterway which also controls both the Israeli port to the Indian Ocean and beyond to the Pacific Ocean at Eilat and the gem of the Egyptian economy the Suez Canal making it all but useless, and a large swath of land stretching from the Indian Ocean at it eastern edge to the Mediterranean Sea at its western tip. Iran likely may have defeated the Islamic State with United States providing the air power to assist in ending that Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda offshoot which initially appeared unstoppable.

 

Bab el Mandeb Strait located at the southern end of Red Sea near western edge of Yemen which controls land overlooking the waterway which allows for blocking passage from Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea traffic from through Egyptian financial collapse without fees collected from the Suez Canal made useless if Bab el Mandeb shuttered also making the Port at Eilat Israel closed from its access to Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and all of Asia and the west coast of the United States, Canada and South and Central America.

Bab el Mandeb Strait located at the southern end of Red Sea near western edge of Yemen which controls land overlooking the waterway which allows for blocking passage from Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea traffic from through Egyptian financial collapse without fees collected from the Suez Canal made useless if Bab el Mandeb shuttered also making the Port at Eilat Israel closed from its access to Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and all of Asia and the west coast of the United States, Canada and South and Central America.

 

 

So, one has to wonder about what it was exactly that did stop them, was it the requirement that they rule these peoples they had now conquered and had gained a home-front which required order and allowing the farmers and others to tend to their business in peace and with the guarantee that the police would keep the peace. At some point the battle will break down to which truly is the stronger horse, the young stallion that burst onto the scene seemingly out of nowhere, their leader’s name is Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali Muhammad al-Badri al-Samarrai (in Arabic إبراهيم عواد إبراهيم علي محمد البدري السامرائي) and now simply known as al-Baghdadi; on February 2, 2004 he had been captured near Fallujah and been detained at Camp Bucca detention center under his name Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al-Badry and was held in Iraq until some time in December 2004 when he was released, as ‘low level prisoner’ after which during the Syrian civil insurrection he came upon opportunities to use his skill to catapult his group from simply an al-Qaeda cell into a self-sustaining entity controlling a large swath of land and across Syria and into central Iraq. Eventually Iran and the Islamic State will necessarily meet head to head, mano-a- mano and then the best force will prevail and one headache will have been eliminated by an adversary doing the world a favor. By the time this draw-down has occurred, Iran will have attained nuclear weapons but will not use them against the Islamic State as their use will be reserved for a larger and more important enemy, namely Israel and the United States, but not another Islamic nation as these it is best to convert the population after proving the superiority where Allah visited victory on the Shiite troops and then offer the fighters from the vanquished side to magnanimously accept them into the forces for truth, the forces favored by Allah who gave them victory. Should these fighters accept the offers remember that they should be placed at the front and be the tip of the spear where Allah can test their conviction and faithfulness and if theirs is a true conversion then Allah will grant them the commission of heroic deeds and if not they will join their former officers who were tried for their crimes against Allah through their organizing and sending brave but misguided soldiers to execute the plans to visit harm on the true forces if Islam. These are the perceived gains received from the Islamic State war with the Shiites of Iran and Iraq along with Hezballah completing the forces of Shia Islam who do appear to be the superior force which has gained the blessings from Allah.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 25, 2015

What Price for Release of Jonathan Pollard?

 

According to The Wall Street Journal, American officials said on Friday that there is reported information that the Obama administration is preparing to release Jonathan Pollard. So it begins once again, the rumored word that President Obama may or may not be considering allowing the release of Jonathan Pollard in the next few days, weeks, months after Parole Board of the Justice Department ruling due to be held for Jonathan Pollard November 21, 2015. So, just for the record we may as well get the blizzard of quotes out of the way and then editorialize.

In a vaguely stated release it was noted that some officials had strongly denied on Friday that there was any link between the Iran deal and the prospective release of Jonathan Pollard, stating that any decision to release Jonathan Pollard would be made by the United States Parole Commission.

When any comment was requested of the White House a spokesperson referred questions to be addressed to the Justice Department whose spokesperson declined to comment on a matter as such might prejudice the case which may be coming up or not before the Parole Commission.
The AFP reported that in a similar vein, a National Security Council spokesperson emphatically stated that the timing of the rumored release was not part of any deal concerning or in any way having to do with any deal and was purely to be considered without prejudice by the United States Parole Commission and the Department of Justice.

A report recently aired in the Algemeiner claimed, the Justice Department is “seriously considering” releasing the 61 year-old Jonathan Pollard on November 21.

Alistair Baskey stated for the record, “Mr. Pollard’s status will be determined by the United States Parole Commission according to standard procedures.” He went on to firmly emphasize, “There is absolutely zero linkage between Mr. Pollard’s status and foreign policy considerations.”

Further quotes and statements sent to President Obama three years ago when Jonathan Pollard was approaching completion of serving his twenty-seventh year of imprisonment and the signs it was beginning to have physical effects upon his health, a group favoring his release made the following video:

 

 

 

The running theme in these most recent speculations and the commentary from Administration and Government spokespeople stresses this one central point, namely that any consideration at this time have nothing, repeat, absolutely nothing to do with the recent deterioration of relations between President Barack Hussein Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry over the Iranian Nuclear Agreement signed this past week in Vienna. These claims appear to mirror the claims that United States Defense Secretary Ashton Carter arrival this week in Israel also was not going to in any way promise arms, protection or anything additional in the relations between any of the nations on his trip to the Middle East, especially on his stops in Israel and Saudi Arabia. His visit, it was stressed, will not be addressing the Iranian Nuclear Agreement and is in no way connected to that deal. This is purely a scheduled review of military preparedness and an opportunity for allies to exchange information and express their mutual needs and expectations while discussing the situations in the Middle East except there will not be couched any references about the recent Iranian Nuclear Agreement. That sets my mind so much at ease to know that Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter’s visit is purely to converse about defense matters and to address any expectations each side may have with the other and, of course, to address any weapons requests as might be seen to be necessary to fill in gaps in the allies and their total encompassing defensive weapons systems. Any appearance that this might be a mission to provide weapons systems as bribes to keep old allies less demonstrative in their concerns about the latest developments and their possible signaling of a new alignment in the Middle East as nothing could be further from the truth, honest.

 

We will likely see how much the visit by Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter results in the toning down of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his protestations over the Iranian Nuclear Agreement and his voicing his hopes and expectations for the United States Congress to pass legislation blocking the United States participation for the deal. The only problem with such reasoning is this line leads one to believe that the United States Congress could be duly influenced by any additional caterwauling by the Israeli Prime Minister. True, his might be amongst the considerations though his position is well known and his continued rants will prove ineffectual as those who are opposed to this deal and pretty much set in stone as are those who wish to support the President in his foreign policy moves as they may feel the President is privileged to certain information which Congress may not possess and others simply desire to support their party’s President as he is in many ways their President. If Netanyahu’s statements are to have any additional effects they will be due to constituents agreeing with his views being driven to write their Congressmen and Senators and give them their advice and stand on this issue which might actually make a difference because votes come election time are what matters and people who write their representatives are the type who remember your voting record.

 

In all honesty, where weapons might be of some use, it would be especially helpful to park an Aegis Destroyer just off Tel Aviv might be very useful providing their radar was directly made available to the Israelis as the Aegis systems are amongst the most advanced in the world. Further, should this Aegis Destroyer be equipped with Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) Army anti-ballistic missile systems, it would be considered extremely nice if it would assist in the elimination of any ballistic missile threats perceived to be incoming as any assistance to the Israeli systems would be appreciated. We here at Beyond the Cusp would be particularly appreciative if any missile be computed to strike along the shores of the Mediterranean and just south of the Lebanon border being intercepted, especially if they were targeting town hall square in Nahariya, really appreciative. If such would be asking too much, that would be just fine as the Israeli intercept systems are very robust, especially in the short and mid-range missiles, rockets, mortars and potentially artillery rounds as the Iron Dome tracking ability gives very accurate real time launch and trajectory path information used largely for decisions by the Iron Dome whether the projectile will strike a built up area or in a field away from any civilian or known military positions and habitats and whether or not to fire an expensive intercept missile.

 

Last summer delivered intercept rating of over ninety percent accurate detection, decision-making and striking rate as something thought near impossible just a few years ago and right up until the Iron Dome’s performance under wartime conditions and heavy bombardment their performance was a miracle. The true miracle though came after an Iron Dome battery had the unthinkable occur, but perhaps it is best to allow the unit in charge of this battery tell this miracle of a true event,

“A missile was fired from Gaza. Iron Dome precisely calculated [its trajectory]. We know where these missiles are going to land down to a radius of 200 meters. This particular missile was going to hit either the Azrieli Towers, the Kirya (Israel’s equivalent of the Pentagon) or [a central Tel Aviv railway station]. Hundreds could have died.”
“We fired the first [interceptor]. It missed. Second [interceptor]. It missed. This is very rare. I was in shock. At this point we had just four seconds until the missile lands. We had already notified emergency services to converge on the target location and had warned of a mass-casualty incident.”
“Suddenly, Iron Dome (which calculates wind speeds, among other things) shows a major wind coming from the east, a strong wind that…sends the missile into the sea. We were all stunned. I stood up and shouted, ‘There is a G0d!’ I witnessed this miracle with my own eyes. It was not told or reported to me. I saw the hand of G0d send that missile into the sea.”

 

Just an explanation from an United States Army anti-tank M67 90mm recoilless rifle bearer, a weapon which fires what is called a ‘fire and forget’ round, which means once fired you are finished aiming it, it goes straight until it strikes the target, a tree or the ground. The necessary wind to blow a rocket off course such a distance as described would also be sufficient to put every last soldier and anybody else on the ground either in a ditch or blown off their feet tumbling until they find somewhere to duck. The strong wind needed to so divert a rocket that close to target would be in excess of one-hundred MPH or one-hundred-sixty-one KPH. Such is well beyond a strong wind and we are talking even above gale force winds and into category-two hurricane force winds. The 90mm rockets fired in various conditions from thirty degrees below zero Fahrenheit (minus thirty four and a half degrees Celsius) to over one hundred degrees Fahrenheit (almost thirty-eight degrees Celsius) with wind as high as forty MPH (sixty-four KPH) and the effect on the rocket was most affected by the thirty below zero temperature as being a solid fueled rocket it accelerated extremely slowly at that temperature but still flew straight. The rocket most likely to have been targeted at Tel Aviv would be the Hamas named M-75 rocket which they build using the Syrian provided plans for the M-302 Chinese WS-2 and the Iranian 333-mm Fajr-5 carrying a 200-lb (90-kg) warhead up to 45 miles (75 km) would likewise be far too heavy and with insufficient side profile and being a round tube with fins is extremely stable in flight. Their being diverted by a strong wind would be possible but not at any sufficient strength that would not have had adverse effects on the people at the Iron Dome sight and the Tel Aviv area. With all things equal, I am glad that whatever or whomever interceded to divert what would have been a devastating rocket strike harmlessly out in the Mediterranean protecting us, all I can say is, “Bless and thank You, Hashem, bless and thank You from the deepest parts of my heart and soul and may Your blessings always be deserved by Israel and her people.”

 

Perhaps Hashem might also give the United States officials or President Obama a slight nudge and return Jonathan Pollard to his wife and family while his health makes such a reunion a far more joyous occasion and that he may heal while under Your kindness and the wonderful climate and wondrous rains that grace our crops and refresh the rivers and lakes so necessary to life and for this we give our thanks, even those who give it little thought, those little thoughts are their manner of thanking You Hashem as even the slightest of our thoughts which are pleasant are a gift You permit us as Your consideration of us as Your chosen and cherished friends and through whom You wish to bless others who gain more in their lives that come from You through the inventive and wondrous imaginations granted us. Bless You Hashem for all You give us and the every amazement as we bask in the miracles presented us often unknown but never unappreciated are Your works. Bless Hashem and His miracles large and small.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 24, 2015

Iran Desires Some Things Even the Saudis Cannot Buy

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Saudi Arabia is used to facing problems for where the determining factor is oil or money. The current crisis is not one of that ilk. It is not one that can be done completely just by controlling the price of oil as doing that might upset Russia, the Saudi’s recent new best friend after the United States proved unreliable and apparently had joined the Iranians whose immediate plan is to take the Saudi oil fields thus neutering the Saudi influence and taking away their only real weapon. But the apparent newest friend of the United States has far more than taking merely oil, they want it all and the Saudis had best know about the other half of the Iranian plans, the half where they take the most valuable of the Saudi influences. The oil is only money and that can be taken back with force even if doing so heavily damages the fields as that too can be easily repaired and the Iranians do not wish to become merely the all but sole power over OPEC and thus be able to push the price of oil up or down according to their whims. But the oil fields, as such, are not even the primary goal because the Iranians have as their primary appetite which is to control Islam, something they find to be the more appealing and possessing a far more important goal requiring their attentions and that is to have the holy cities starting with Mecca and Medina. Some here believe that their backing of the Houthis to take control of Yemen is less about controlling the Bab el Mandeb Straights and more about providing them with a more direct route in reaching Mecca and Medina coming from the south which is often the least guarded area of Saudi Arabia and once the Iranians get past those tasked with guarding the southern borders it would become a three party race to control the holy cities, two being the Iranians closing from Yemen in the south and from Iraq in the north while the Saudi forces would need to be called from their concentration on the oil fields and transported the width of the country to join the fight. This lends to my answering those who have asked about what made me believe that World War III was on the horizon and this is my reply and explanation.

 

Once Iran controls the oil fields and both Mecca and Medina, and thus adding to the Shiite holy sites in Iran and in Iraq where their efforts will be directed in defending those near Islamic State borders or already swallowed by the Islamic State thus requiring liberation they can move to their next challenge. With their control over Mecca and Medina added to Damascus, Najaf, in Iraq with Qom in Iran they can then fortify any other Shiite holy places in Iraq from the ravages of the Islamic State and work towards returning Damascus and all of Syria which at the moment appears more like a pressing and difficult problem. Should the situation turn for the worst, as it appears that the Syrian and Hezballah forces are losing badly in Syria, Iran will need to interject some serious forces to reacquire all of Syria thus rejoining these lands with Iraq and thus attaining a direct land route for resupply. This will require the removal of Islamic State from their holdings and that may prove to be a most difficult task. None of these tasks are dependent on the Iranian production of nuclear weapons as those weapons can only be utilized in places which possess no natural or religiously important sites as such sites becoming uninhabitable due to radiation would defeat gaining their control. Taking out the Islamic State resources in open areas of lesser importance would be the perfect locations for tactical nuclear intervention providing breaking the treaty just negotiated would not prove advantageous as it would give the next President of the United States the perfect excuse to interfere with Iranian immediate plans to take control of the most prized and sensitive locations in all of Islam.

 

Fortunately for Israel and the United States these goals are more likely the primary goals for Iran as their gaining preeminence in the Muslim world and the display of Shia Islam as ascending and Sunni Islam as the weak and decrepit old and stale form of Islam would serve them well in converting the majority of Sunni adherents to Shiite doctrines. The fact that once the Iranians had defeated Saudi Arabia or at least gained the vital parts of the oil fields of the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia along with Mecca and Medina they could then set to establishing Madrassa throughout the Islamic and Western worlds replacing the Wahhabi schools and other centers with Shia schools and centers and will go a long way towards this goal. There are two other obstacles which Iran will need to overcome, Turkey and Egypt, both of which are well armed and have well trained militaries and will each pose their own necessary problems for the Iranians to address. Many might claim that the Kurds would also pose a problem but oddly enough, there are scenarios in which they could become allies if their ends were also considered. Should the Iranians prove to be the chess players they were at the P5+1 nuclear talks, not that President Obama desired to present any bit the real defender of the realm and actually desired to provide Iran with a perfectly clean route to nuclear weapons even to go so far as to provide United States assistance in designing the ultimate in centrifuges and potentially the actual plans, methods and procurement of equipment for the entire production of thermonuclear warheads and setting up multiple sites dispersed around Iran in German designed and build bunkers for their continued safety and Secretary Kerry as the clown at the talks being advised and encouraged all the while to simply give in at any sign of resistance and to make the demands in such a plaintive, diminutive and weak tone as to invite refusals, what could possibly go wrong as long as the American people were never aroused the plan would work, and it functioned like clockwork they will parley these gifts into further gains.

 

So, once Iran has cemented their control over the Arabian Peninsula, and the Shiite crescent through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, the next two nuts to crack are Turkey and Egypt. Turkey can be defeated quickest and with minimal efforts providing they decide not to simply bow to Iranian hegemony and take the refusal to their retaining independence and instead becoming a semiautonomous district subject to the whims and necessities of Tehran, then Turkey will have been neutered and the Kurds circumvented and thus left alone for the time being as their threat is minimal as all they desire, much like Israel, is their little corner of the world and they will be content ad happy. Unfortunately for the people of Turkey, I do not see Erdogan capitulating and to subside his rule to Tehran which would make him an enemy. The best tactic for invading Turkey would be to seek the aid of the Kurds under the promise of granting them the eastern quarter of Turkey and the lands they already control even including Mosul as an autonomous region loyal to Iran. As long as the Iranians remain loyal to their promises the Kurds would do similarly. This would leave Egypt as the sole roadblock to hegemonic establishment of the Caliphate as the rest of North Africa would readily fall to Iran. There is no easy way to take Egypt but she could be weakened severely just by the loss of the Sinai Peninsula and grabbing control of the two ends of the Suez Canal thus taking from Egypt a major revenue source. Probably the best manner of taking Egypt is from within and by establishing Shia Islam as dominant and thus having them desire to join the strong and growing in power Iranians who are the true leaders of Islam and the emerging Caliphate.

 

After Egypt the goal changes immensely and the impossible must be considered, well, the impossible from the erudite scholars in the West, nobody told the Iranian or the Arab worlds that such was considered beyond acceptable, the seeking to conquer the entire world and willing to do whatever it takes and destroy half the world simply to rule the remainder. The United States has always practiced capture and release policy starting in the twentieth century and this molded their concept that any one nation conquering the world was out of the question. Europe, as we have seen, would be happy to unite Europe and have it ruled by a council of the nations and somehow find some formula that equalized Germany and Greece and the two completely foreign to each other lifestyles. Europe, in its self-imposed demilitarized European theater would pose little opposition should their Islamic populations approach thirty percent and decide that Europe should be required to join the Caliphate as the real and unadulterated authoritative force in the world. It is entirely possible that should there be rioting and mayhem with hundreds if not thousands murdered in the uprising that the European Union would desire quiet to such an extent as to capitulate and then the nations would call for a meeting of NATO and it is quite possible that most of NATO would claim their desire to join the Caliphate and desire all of NATO to simply recognize that this was the future of the world. The United States and possibly some of the eastern European nations would oppose such and NATO would effectively be dissolved allowing the majority of NATO nations and European Union nations would just surrender to Islam without a fight, the preferred method by the rulers of the Caliphate.

 

 

Could this be an Iranian Caliphate resulting from the concessions all are making in the here and now and their hungers being satiated by a weakened and war weary Western World, especially Europe and leftists in America?

Could this be an Iranian Caliphate resulting from the concessions all are making in the here and now and their hungers being satiated by a weakened and war weary Western World, especially Europe and leftists in America?

 

 

At some point the remaining European powers, probably Poland and England and a few of the former Warsaw Pact nations resisting and uniting with the United States, and oddly enough, with China and Russia all unite in order to fight to prevent what they finally recognized was an actual intent to rule the entire globe. The unthinkable would finally begin to be realized that nobody had informed the Iranians that conquest of the world was an undesirable goal and totally unacceptable by what was formerly the civilized Western World. The problem is that only the Western World had ever adopted that concept. Unimaginable as it would be to think so, but even Kim Jong Un probably envisioned a world being ruled by him or one of his progeny. The remaining powers somehow included Israel, which had lost Tel Aviv to the Iranian hope that one bomb would end Israel. Instead that one bomb just steeled their steadfastness and lighted the resolve of one third of American Jewry who made Aliyah bringing with them their wealth, all under an emergency plan by Israel’s government calling for all Jews to male Aliyah immediately. This was stated to be the rallying for the safety of Israel and Jerusalem. This swelled the Jewish population even after the loss of almost two-million souls when Tel Aviv was struck; the Israeli Jewish population reached an unthinkable eleven-million Jews. This in-swelling of the Jews from around the world was seen by many younger Arab Islamists as a sign for them to move across the Jordan River and join with the Caliphate which had absorbed Jordan in a three day blitz. The Jordanian King was able to get his family inside Israel along with many of the ruling elites who desired the relative safety of Israel than to face the often unpredictable dictates of the Shia conquerors. Israel offered safety and provided an escape to the United States where they all took up residence in the Napa Valley and spent their days sipping wine on the various tours of the vineyards.

 

The alliance of Britain, Poland, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Russia, China, a number of other smaller former Soviet satellites and miraculously, Israel joined forces to end the rise of the Caliphate once and for all. It is inevitable given the divisions in this world which have irreconcilable differences and completely opposing philosophic views and precepts, the clash between the two once the weaker, Islam, could be united against the currently still stronger United States and the British commonwealth nations which includes Canada, Australia, the British Isles, Ireland (though they would deny it till the end), United States, India, New Zealand, and a few I probably missed, would band together in a response to any threat against a single state, especially if that threat was aimed at London and Ten Downing Street and Buckingham Palace as the world knows, there are but five Queens in this world and there are near countless versions of four and one stands apart. They are the Queen of Hearts, Queen of Clubs, Queen of Spades, and Queen of Diamonds and above them all is the Queen of England. That will be the next and hopefully final world war though I have my doubts about last. Let us pray that the deal struck with Iran does not make that final World War the one told of by Albert Einstein in the answer he presumably gave when asked what weapons World War III would be fought with and he replied “I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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