Beyond the Cusp

April 14, 2015

They Have Actually Started Eating Each Other

Filed under: 1967 War,24/7 News Reporting,Absolutism,Administration,Al-Aksa Martyrs Brigade,al-Aqsa Mosque,Amalekites,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Arab Appeasement,Arab Authority,Arab League,Arab World,Arabs,Ariel Sharon,Ballot Access,Blood Libel,Borders,Children Crippled,Children Murdered,Civil War,Civilization,Clan,Command,Condoleezza Rice,Count Ballots,Coverup,Elections,European Governments,European Media,European Pressure,European Union,Failed State,Fatah,Fatah Charter,Foreign Funding,Gaza,George W. Bush,Government,Government Controlled Media,Green Line,Hamas,Hamas Charter,Hate,Humanitarian Aid,IDF,Income,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iranian Pressure,ISIS,ISIS in Gaza,ISIS in Judea and Samaria,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Interests,Israeli Media,Jenin,Jewish State,Jihad,Jihad,Jobs,Judea,Knifing,Koran,Leftist Pressures,Mahmoud Abbas,Mainstream Media,Media,Media Bias,Media Censorship,Media Intimidation,Military Coup,Misreporting,Muslim World,Muslims,Nablus,NGO,Nonjudicial Assassination,Omission,Oslo Accords,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Legislative Committee,Palestinian Media,Palestinian Pressures,Palestinian Security Force,Parliament,Politicized Findings,Politics,President,President for Life,Prime Minister,Ramallah,Rebel Forces,Refugee Camp,Refugees,Samaria,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Security,Shechem,Shooting Victims,Six Day War,Standard of Living,Talking Heads,Terror,Theocracy,Threat of War,Tribe,United Nations Presures,United States Pressure,Validate Elections,Victims,West Bank,World Media,World Opinion,World Pressures,Yasser Arafat — qwertster @ 2:18 AM
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The differences between Hamas and Fatah have been well documented and their 2007 open warfare for the control of Gaza was simply the Super Bowl which had one merciful fact, it lasted just under one week from June 10 to June 15, 2007. The official casualty count was one-hundred-twenty Palestinian combatants and thirty-nine Palestinian civilians and two UN personnel. This was the most famous and heavily reported violence between Palestinian factions though there have been numerous breakouts of violence between different family groups, crime entities, competing terrorist groups and sometimes even violence between individuals. Most of the violence has been ignored by most of the world’s media as reporting on violent disagreements between separate Palestinians would detract from their normally presented angelic image usually used to paint the darlings of the mainstream leftist media. If Israelis had problems anywhere near the level of the animosities often overlooked between Hamas and Fatah it would lead every newscast and top every newspaper in the world. Unfortunately for the mainstream media the animosity between Hamas and Fatah and the charges Hamas levels against the Palestinian Authority and Mahmoud Abbas has been such that it has demanded coverage from time to time. Just to give an idea of the extent that differences and threats between even Hamas and Fatah and the President of the Palestinian Authority just this past week Mahmoud al-Zahar, an ranking officer with Hamas, leveled challenges to the rule of Mahmoud Abbas calling his continued rule as illegitimate as he has not stood for election and thus Abbas’s term as “president” expired years ago. He further accused Abbas of “treachery” for allowing for security coordination and cooperation with the IDF (Israel Defense Forces). Zahar also equated Abbas’s name as an “embarrassment” to every Palestinian. Zahar also addressed the charge that Hamas was working to form their own Palestinian state in Gaza by presenting that Hamas would not be satisfied with a state in Gaza or in the “West Bank” (Judea and Samaria) as their intent is intent on the complete destruction of Israel. Mahmoud Al-Zahar further stated, “If we succeed in setting up a government in Gaza, autonomy, civil administration or any other framework on a portion of the land of Palestine, that does not mean that we give up on one other grain of Palestine.” Just one week earlier Al-Zahar demanded an end to the Palestinian Authority and explained that the “honeymoon period” was over as was any hope of continuing the “unity government” calling for a return to the “armed struggle.” Of course none of this was reported on the evening news throughout much of the world even including some newscasts in Israel. These little spats cannot be permitted to spoil the view that everything between the factions within the Palestinian Arab families might have even the slightest possibility of hitting a rough spot.

 

The truth is that rough spots is the norm between Hamas and Fatah or even Hamas and the Arab Palestinian Authority and have been that way since the elections in 2006 when Hamas won the Parliamentary elections and Abbas decided that there was no need for having an election for his spot as the President of the Arab Palestinian Authority as he had just succeeded the Late Yasser Arafat just over eighteen months earlier and extended his term until the next elections in 2009. This problem was the result of the hubris of the United States, surprise, surprise. President George W. Bush and his then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice insisted that the Palestinian Parliamentary elections of 2006 had to be open to all the parties of the Arab Palestinian Authority, both Fatah and Hamas. Somehow they missed insisting on Islamic Jihad but why quibble over degrees of disasters. Mahmoud Abbas pleaded with President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to reconsider informing that allowing for Hamas to field candidates against Fatah would result in a disaster and a Hamas victory, the only variable was the scale of the disaster. Prime Minister Sharon also demanded that this open election not be pressed as it would all but guarantee a Hamas victory which Israel pressed would be a disaster for Israel, any hopes for peace and might even result in a new war. President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice remained adamant and the rest is history, Hamas won a majority in the Parliament and all elections going forward would end up cancelled after the Gaza War which led to a Hamas government in Gaza and a Fatah controlled Arab Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria (West Bank).

 

There was a new wrinkle this past week when violence flared in Judea and Samaria between different segments of the Arab Palestinian Authority, of different Fatah factions. The latest flare-up has broken out in two locations, Jenin, once the location of a false massacre that to this day is still used to attempt to besmirch the IDF despite the fact that even the United Nations, not exactly the best friend when it comes to defending Israel, investigated the battle and found that for all intents and purposes the casualties were virtually all combatants and the numbers were minimal and nowhere near the numbers claimed by Palestinian spokespersons or numerous international NGOs, and Nablus, historically named Shechem since the times of ancient Israel of nearly three-thousand years ago. Both Jenin and Nablus are within Area A which places them under complete Arab Palestinian Authority control which includes both civil and security. The laws in these two cities and surrounding areas is made by the Arab Palestinian Authority Parliament and is enforced completely by the Arab Palestinian Authority Security Forces personnel. All of this was spelled out and stipulated part and parcel in the 1993 Oslo Accords and was intended to allow the Arabs to prove they were capable of self-rule and managing their own areas, the results of this have been mixed at best. The violence which broke out this week was not a sign that things are going neither well in Jenin nor in Nablus. Let us take the two locations separately.

 

Jenin has been a powder-keg as the refugee camp there has been the home of numerous different terrorist squads and crime within the camp has been a running problem as the refugees are denied employment and are prime candidates to join terrorist squads or turn to crime as any manner of escape from the camps is highly desirable. The fact that there are Arab Palestinian refugee camps within Judea and Samaria as well as within Gaza is virtually beyond belief. These Arabs are living in what can only be described as government provided apartment buildings similar in design to the government housing in the inner cities in the United States, permanent structures made of concrete forms and fully furnished just as any other apartment building except that these apartment buildings hold Palestinians denoted as refugees living amongst Palestinians in a Palestinian governed area. Should the world decide tomorrow to end the farce which is the Palestinian refugee permanent and festering situation where if either of your parents were refugees then you will grow up as a refugee and your children and their children yet to be born will also be refugees. The violence, which was reported in some news media given the kind of coverage where it was not a leading story, broke out on Friday between members of the Fatah Party, possibly from their “military wing” the al-Aqsa’s Military Brigades, and Arab Palestinian Authority Security Forces, the “military and police forces” of the Arab Palestinian Authority which is made up mostly if not entirely by Fatah members in central Jenin near the refugee camp. This was simply the latest in a series of firefights between the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades forces and the Arab Palestinian Authority forces. One such incident resulted in the Arab Palestinian Authority Security Force Headquarters being engulfed in a hail of bullets where fortunately and miraculously nobody was injured.

 

The amazing thing is the Fatah and the Arab Palestinian Authority both have Mahmoud Abbas as their leader. Abbas is the Chairman of the Fatah Party and the President of the Arab Palestinian Authority, so this pitted armed men from one side under Mahmoud Abbas shooting and engaged with armed men on the other side under Mahmoud Abbas, and this is a normalcy within their society with its dualities often drawn to separate the so-called refugees from the rest of the population. The next day, Saturday, in the Balata “Refugee Camp” in Nablus, the car of a leading Fatah activists, Fayiz Arafat, was set on fire. Several days before his vehicle was burnt, he was the target of an apparent assassination attempt which the local people placed the blame on the Arab Palestinian Authority Security officers. These shootings have been escalating under the radar for quite some time and only recently have they spilled out of control and thus started to be reported in some reports within the communities, both refugee and normative Arab Palestinians. These outbursts of violence have been escalating with their having been two main sources leading up to these escalations, coup attempts by Hamas and the influx of ISIS supporters starting to form cells which are then seen as rivals leading to their targeting by the long-standing forces from within Fatah, some of which also serve in the Arab Palestinian Authority Security Forces. Last year there was being formed a larger force by Hamas operatives for the purpose of launching a coup against Fatah and taking over the Arab Palestinian Authority in a similar escalation which resulted in Gaza being run by Hamas outside of the Arab Palestinian Authority control and rule. The Hamas growing threat was detected by Israeli forces who arrested the leaders of the cell and the cell collapsed fragmenting without its leadership.

 

The breakout of firefights between Fatah al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade forces and the Arab Palestinian Authority Security Forces is a surprising development. The supporters of the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades forces lay all of the blame for instigating this situation by pressing their efforts against Fatah Activists Fayiz Arafat as part and parcel of their attempts to also take control over the Balata Refugee Camp wresting it from its local control and enforcement by the Fatah forces. This is not as far-fetched as it may at first appear as there has been any number of these situations recently. Some of the violence has occurred before but then mostly as isolated incidents. There was also the arrest and breakup of an ISIS cell in Hevron earlier this month and more such threats promise to appear as ISIS has gained strength by garnering recruits from both Fatah members and Hamas members plus anyone who have lost their faith in the faction’s ability to deliver on its promises of destroying Israel and instead seek out ISIS who have a record of being the stronger force capable of delivering on their promises for actions in place of words though we have seen little reservations. Should these differences continue to fracture the Arab society and place each group at the other groups’ throats with the violence constantly ramping upward becoming more serious, eventually destroying any hopes of the entire Arab community. Turning to ISIS will simply represent the Arab society proving that their intent was never to form their own state but solely to destroy the Jewish State of Israel. Such irreconcilable truth being exhibited will only serve to refute even their most ardent supporters’ claims that their intentions are of a limited nature and not having the complete destruction of Israel as their lifelong goal. Turning to ISIS will signal the end of the ability of even the Europeans and the lunatic fringe extreme leftists from denying the claim that the aims of the Palestinian society is destruction of Israel and not the construction of their own state.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 9, 2015

The Israeli Iran and Obama Dilemma

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,1967 Borders,1967 War,Absolutism,Act of War,Administration,Alawite,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Authority,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollahs,Azerbaijan,Bashir al-Assad,Benyamin Netanyahu,Breakout Point,Calaphate,China,Civilization,Condemning Israel,Coverup,Dhimmi,Disengagement,Ease Sanctions,Egypt,Ehud Barak,EMP Device,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Union,Executive Order,Fatah,Federica Mogherini,Forced Solution,Framework,France,Galilee,Germany,Government,Great Britain,Green Line,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,History,Holy Sites,International Politics,Intifada,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps,Iraq,IRGC,ISIS,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Home,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,John Kerry,Judea,Judean Hills,Land for Peace,Leftist Pressures,Mahmoud Abbas,Mediterranean Sea,Middle East,Munich Accord of 1938,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Muslims,Netanyahu,Neville Chamberlain,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Oslo Accords,P5+1,Palestinian Authority,Peace Process,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,President Obama,Prime Minister,Promised Land,Rebel Forces,Refugees,Samaria,Sanctions,Saudi Arabia,Secretary of State,Sinai,Sinai Peninsula,Six Day War,State Department,Supreme Leader,Syria,Taqiyya,Temple Mount,Terminal War,Terror,Turkey,Union Interests,United Arab Emirates,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,War,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,Yemen,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:10 AM
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What do you do when you presumed ally’s leader appears to have joined the other side? This is only the tip of the iceberg that Israel and her elected Prime Minister will be facing when the new government is formed sometime this month, possibly towards the end of the month as the forming of a coalition often takes the threat of an impending deadline to alter demands into something more tenable. The Framework Agreement has not made the dilemma any simpler as it appears that every party to the negotiations walked away with a completely different piece of paper or each translation took great amounts of liberty with definitions of the terms. Whatever the actual cause, the statements coming out of Washington D.C. and out of Tehran, Iran appear to be diametric opposites. The classic example is the claim by the Administration in Washington D.C. that the Iranians will be limited to using their slowest, least productive and most problematic centrifuges while the Iranians have had numerous military, civilian and IRGC (Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps) commanders relate that at the date the agreement is signed they will be able to fully implement the use of their advanced IR-8 centrifuges which are twenty-times as productive and reliable as compared to their earliest models. Such gaps in interpretations of the Framework Agreement does not bode well for reaching any desired result in a final agreement with both sides permitted their own so very liberal translations and definition of the terminology. These disparate readings of the Framework Agreement should signal to Secretary of State Kerry and the negotiating team that their attempts to make the wording inconclusive in its desired definitions which has apparently led to such a different take on the Framework Agreement which is probably best served reading the French and European Union versions which are so opaque and generalized using terminology which was technically meaningless leaving the entire document a singular masterpiece in diplospeak doubletalk worthy of a George Orwell novel.

 

The definitions and interpretations are even less worrisome for the Israelis as they probably have yet to receive a copy of the Framework in any language. The one saving grace is that the Israelis do not need to research the Framework and what might be concluded from the disparate interpretations; they need only consider whatever the Iranians believe is the intent. As much as President Obama has raked the United States relationship with Israel over hot coals and through a harvester shredder, the United States President does not pose any threat or difficulty by having a unique definition of the terms in the Framework while whatever the Iranians discern from the document is potentially a direct threat to Israel and her survival. Yes, it is true that the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was chanting “Death to America” right along with the throngs chanting and cheering right along with their leader, the same man also this past weekend called for the destruction of Israel referring to Israel as that “barbaric” Jewish State which “has no cure but to be annihilated.” The Iranian Supreme Leader went on to present a strategy titled “Nine key questions about the elimination of Israel” which was also placed on his Twitter account Saturday night where he used the hashtag of #handsoffalaqsa, an oblique reference to the continuing terrorist riots and other tensions on the Temple Mount especially in reference to the right for Jews and other non-Muslims to pray on the holy site to three religions. The Ayatollah’s plans laid out a political path to replacing Israel completely with an Islamic run state where the Jews and other non-Muslims would necessarily be forced to accept Dhimmitude and a life of constant disgrace and the downtrodden shame as second class citizens living at the grace and good tidings of their Muslim masters. What he left out and even went so far as to claim his plan did not include was the death of the Jews living in the area once the Muslims were granted rule as at any point the Muslim rulers could give the Jews the choice of paying the Jiyza special tax or converting to Islam and eventually at their whim change that choice replacing the Jiyza tax making the new choice between conversion to Islam or death. Should any Jew choose to convert, if any Muslim believed that the Jew was not a true and faithful believer in Islam, they could bring charges which would inevitable result in the death penalty for apostasy. That is the truth behind the nine point plan by the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

 

But there is another bothersome problem which has raised it head some claim as many as four different times. Israel, as an ally, so as not to interfere with or be mistaken for a hostile force, will present any military plans to the United States Pentagon who shares these plans with the White House. Off the top I recall once when it was understood that the Israelis would be granted overflight permission which would include potentially refueling of F-15 and F-16 Fighter-Bombers over Saudi Arabian territories potentially just before launching a raid into Iran and potentially repeating such a refueling on their return flight. This was a quiet, under the radar, under even the kitchen table as this was obviously a super sensitive and secret permission being extended by the Saudis. Any revelation of such permission of such a sensitive and volatile agreement would immediately cause massive denials from both sides and the agreement would crash and burn. Not all that surprising but that was exactly what occurred at some point before said raid was launched when somehow the news of this agreement between Saudi Arabian rulers and Israel leaked to the press with in the aftermath it becoming obvious that the leak originated not with the Pentagon but with either the White House or the State Department, which it actually was is irrelevant as the real source of the leak was much closer if not actually to the top man in the White House. Months upon months later there was an arrangement for Israel to lease a pair of derelict unused military airfields in Azerbaijan which both lay a short distance north of Iran. The agreement might have been for these airbases to solely be used in cases of emergency such as a damaged or short on fuel fighter jet needed a landing point for repair or refueling as they would otherwise not be capable of making the entire return trip to Israel from their mission over Iran. Once again there was a leak that Azerbaijan was working with and assisting the Israelis on a potential attack on the Iranian nuclear sites. Needless to say but the complete rejection of there being such a plan was claimed and sworn to by both sides. Again the leak was traced back to the White House. Obviously Israel has a problem informing the United States about any plans to address the Iranian nuclear program in a manner separate from the Framework or any negotiated agreement but rather a more direct approach.

 

There is another problem with the United States when it would come for Israel to launch an assault on the Iranian nuclear sites or any other targets which might be included in such a scenario, and that is the fact that there are probably always two aircraft carriers and the airbase at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and within range of any Israeli attack route on Iran. These United States assets matter because it has also been rumored that the United States forces in the region have orders to intercept the Israelis and force them to return to their bases in Israel or face being shot out of the air. The actual leaked information stated that the United States pilots were to make it as difficult as possible but not to shoot at the Israeli aircraft first but to sweep them from the skies as soon as one fired at a United States aircraft or ship. These intercepts were to be taken over Iraqi airspace which is technically under United States security until the Iraqi Air Force is competent enough to do the job themselves. Needless to point out that the most direct route for Israeli aircraft would take them over Jordanian airspace followed by Iraq airspace and in reverse order upon their return to Israel. A further problem might exist within the Israeli political and military command and personnel where there are those who firmly believe that nothing Israeli has plans to do should be attempted until they receive affirmation of their plans by the United States. In many cases that person is also a member of the Prime Minister’s inner security Cabinet. One such was Defense Minister Ehud Barak who was feeding intelligence and all plans in detail directly to the White House and quite possibly directly to President Obama. Odds are this was done with the knowledge of Prime Minister Netanyahu and it is possible or even likely that it was Bibi Netanyahu who has ordered the exchange of information, especially on plans for attacks on the Iranian nuclear sites.

 

This leads to the current Israeli dilemma on what path to take and whether any or every plan should be shared with Israeli allies. Israeli leadership does need to take under consideration the obvious fact that President Obama has an apparent amorous desire to complete a deal with Iran and nurture said plan while building up the Iranian power granting them recognition and respect while protecting the Iranians from threats of a military address to destroy their nuclear program by preventing that option from being taken off the table and put into practice. It appears that President Obama and his closest advisors not only seek to empower Iran granting them hegemonic powers throughout the Middle East and even into South East Asia, Northern Africa and Eastern Europe, surpassing Israeli powers in similar areas, and completing this shakeup and restructuring of the Middle East, the President seems set on pressing Israel to take steps President Obama sees as the solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict even if those steps end up being performed unilaterally and result in Hamas or ISIS taking control over Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and causing a direct threat to the Israeli heartlands where close to three-quarters of her citizens reside and an even higher percentage of her infrastructure, industry, manufacturing, commercial and service industries exist. Pulling back to the borders envisioned by President Obama would return Israel to the borders which would permit any attack on Israel from Judea and Samaria to cut Israel completely in half isolating the Galilee from the Negev and destroying and occupying a quarter of Israel simply by advancing the approximately the diameter of the Washington D.C. Capital Beltway which is just a smidge over nine miles. That is the width of the central neck of Israel should she be forced back to the Green Line, the pre-June 1967 Six Day War. As modern artillery is capable of firing well beyond ten miles with great effect and accuracy, simply mounting artillery batteries almost anywhere in western Judea and the Arab forces could systematically destroy all of central Israel within a single twenty-four hour period. Israel would not need fear an attack by missiles from Iran when artillery from Iran would do just as well if not better and cost far less. This would be the biggest gift President Obama could grant Iran, even better than the ambiguous Framework and the agreement to follow. This was why it was assumed even in the United Nations that Israel would be allowed to retain the lands of Judea and Samaria and any refugees would be settled within the country where they were located and considered an even treatment as Israel absorbed many hundreds of thousands refugees from Middle Eastern and North African Arab and Muslim states by 1960 as these were Jews chased from their homes and towns where they had resided often for over fifteen-hundred-years, some even over two-thousand-years.

 

All those who have been claiming that all Israel has to worry about is surviving the remainder of President Obama’s term in the White House, this is far from true. Israel is facing so numerous threats of annihilation and from so many directions that it is almost impossible to get one’s arms around it. Even Egypt and Jordan, two nations which have made their peace with Israel and now reside with frosty borders and relations, have at least kept those borders peaceful. There are even those occasions where Israel will take steps to aid Jordan and Egypt and they, mostly Egypt, have been known to take measures which assist Israeli survival. The greatest example of such cooperation has been the enforcement by the Egyptians of their own embargo and strict rules enforced for passage through the Rafah Gate into the Sinai Peninsula from Gaza. This is not done by Egypt completely out of friendship as much as it is due to the assistance that Hamas provides the terrorist groups located in the Sinai Peninsula who attacks Egyptian soldiers, border guards, and even attack Egyptian resorts located in the Sinai Peninsula along the coast of the Red Sea. The truth is Iran is also a threat to Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and all of the other Arab Sunni nations with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and so on. Currently the Iranian threat and control has spread to some very challenging areas where they threaten far more than Israel. Iran is openly supplying arms and also IRGC soldiers to Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad along with Hezballah terrorist forces from Lebanon allowing al-Assad to survive against ISIS and the other rebel groups. Iran has great influence over the Shia majority in Iraq and is assisting the fighting again ISIS in Iraq. This is not entirely altruistic as it is a definitive possibility, some might say inevitability, that ISIS has plans for engaging Iran directly at some point once it gets control over Iraq.

 

Furthermore, Iranian backed Houthis are moving directly across Yemen and have already swept the United States backed government from the capital and disbanded replacing themselves as the rulers of Yemen. Yemen is doubly important as it furthers the Iranian encirclement of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. Their reaching the southwest corner of Yemen gives Iran control of the Bab el Mandeb Strait (Arabic: باب المندب‎) which translates as “Gateway of Anguish”, or “Gateway of Tears” and is important because it connects through its narrow waterway the exit from the Red Sea, which includes all shipments from the Israeli port of Eilat and the Jordanian port of al-Aqabah and ships passing southward through the Suez Canal, into the Gulf of Aden and on to the Arabian Sea and the east coast of Africa or on to the Indian Ocean and all of Asia. This would be an additional maritime choke point which matches well with their ability to shut down the Straits of Hormuz which is the choke point for the Persian Gulf through to the Gulf of Oman and on to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean with passing through the straits what is claimed to be at least one-third of the world’s oil. Should Iran ever close both of these points then international trade would be greatly hampered and Europe would basically have to take the old route around the Cape of Good Hope or across the Atlantic Ocean and through the Panama Canal and across the Pacific Ocean which would be longer but some might believe it provides safer waterways. Still, closing these two passages would still bring much of maritime trade to a screeching halt while greatly increasing shipping times and place a burden on retail outlets to raise their prices on many if not all imported goods.

 

Finally, the biggest threat of an nuclear armed Iran is the threats posed to Israel and other nations of a nuclear armed Saudi Arabia, a nuclear armed Egypt with the potential to have the Muslim Brotherhood return to power, a nuclear armed Turkey, Syria, Hezballah, al-Qaeda, nuclear armed UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and who knows who else as terror elements gain access to nuclear weapons supplied by their state sponsors such as Iran or Saudi Arabia. The spread of nuclear armed states spreading throughout the Muslim world might inspire and motivate other nations to begin their own nuclear armed program and they might receive assistance from other new nuclear powers. The fact is that a nuclear armed Iran would forever alter the balances of power everywhere. We very well might need to adjust to a world without any restraints on who can have nuclear weapons and it simply becomes anybody with the cash to finance their breakout point making it realistic for every nation who really desires such weapons. Of course if your neighbor decides to join the nations with nuclear weapons stockpiles and then another neighbor announced their advanced program and claims to have developed thermo-nuclear devices, hydrogen bombs, and has produced a number of those in their stockpile, how long before the nation, now surrounded by nuclear armed neighbors, makes the only logical decision they can for their future survival they begin their own nuclear weapons research and development. As we pointed out in our April 7, 2015, article titled Historic Lessons and Future Nuclear War where we traced some of the super weapons through the ages as man developed from clubs to thermonuclear devices which can level whole cities or destroy only the electronic infrastructure bring a nation to its knees, we realized that there has never been the development of a super weapon which was not used, sometimes these weapons made such a difference that it decided which trail the human genome traveled from that one crucial super weapon for that warfare. We also found that often the super weapon from the last war is the standard for weapons used in the next war and thus one can only deduce that there will be a future war where some form of nuclear weapon will be used on the battlefield which may easily lead to an exchange of nuclear weapons which might be misinterpreted as a launch and use their nuclear weapons against their enemies while they are still able and the spread continues from this one episode to a conflagration which would be immeasurable. All this might be the eventuality after Iran becomes a nuclear armed state and it spreads through the Arab and Muslim worlds and from there beyond spanning the globe. Perhaps holding such power under one’s control will temper their arrogances and put their pride and conceits in perspective and nation shall choose to no longer lift their sword against their neighbor as war might then draw too large a cost to even be imagined. But what about the terrorist entities of which there are a number who are supplied by Iran which include Hezballah and Hamas, both of which border Israel and have started conflicts using every weapon they could muster. What will be the result if these entities are given access to nuclear weapons which they could then use against Israeli cities? Additionally, Iran has been attempting to gain favor and supply Fatah and Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Authority which occupy Judea, Samaria and have access to all of Jerusalem and control the Temple Mount through the use of civil disturbances and rioting. Should Fatah receive a nuclear device it would not be impossible to place it in a vehicle, likely a stolen vehicle from within Israel and sporting Israeli citizen plates granting it free travel with relative ease. Such a situation could result in such a device being set to detonate right outside the Knesset Parliament Building and possibly even timed to coincide with a second device being set-off in central Tel Aviv. Such an attack would leave Israeli little choice but to strike back and to do so with the ferocity of a wounded mother protecting her children as that would be exactly what Israel would be engaged in, protecting those Children of Israel who had survived despite having much of her heart torn from within her. Never Again also meant that we would never allow the Masada ending to be played out again and no longer would Israel sit still to be carved-up by her neighbors, Never Again!

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 7, 2015

Historic Lessons and Future Nuclear War

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Since before Homo Sapiens first walked the earth there were earlier versions which vied for predominance and if but for a super weapon would have become the earlier predecessors of modern man. We postulate that the first super-weapon was likely the club which began as a simple heavy branch of a tree. This was a vast improvement over the closed fist as it granted greater range and impressive additional force. The club proved to give even greater force than the thrown rock though it did place the wielder closer to the prey and thus in greater danger. These weapons improved but eventually there was to come a divide which separated the two main branches contending, though unknowingly; to eventually produce what would evolve to be modern human beings. One group had a sturdy spear which, like its predecessor the club, relied at fighting at close distance from the prey and the other the thrown spear which had to be balanced and was to be hurled from a safe distance though it required carrying numerous spears into the hunt. When these two competing branches of what might become humankind came into direct competition the elegance of the thrown spear and the speed and stamina it had granted its wielder over those who utilized a thicker thrusting spear which required close order and greater strength which had their society develop greater strength at the cost of speed and stamina, the more advanced throwing spear proved the vital difference.

 

Through the years of human history there has been constant evolution of weaponry with each successive development resulting in a more effective killing machine and greater casualties in each subsequent war. The development war soon became a battle between defensive protection and the ability to deliver harm. Shields and leather armor was superseded by steel weapons which led to layered armors and eventually stronger metals and eventually plate armor which made the wearer almost invulnerable to any single blow from any weapon of its day. This led to two weapons which changed the path of human history. The first was the crossbow which was capable of piercing even heavy plate mail armor and a weapon specific to the soldiers of the British Isles, the longbow. The first use of the longbow, made possible due to the Yew tree and its particular properties, came onto the battlefield with initial devastating results during the Hundred Years’ War in the battle of Crécy where the French had set their camp beyond range of archers, regular archers whose ranges were well known by all. The British archers setup early the next morning much to the bemusement of the French who continued with the breakfast presumably trading jokes about the crazy British lining up their archers beyond possible range. The surprise followed by the utmost confusion interrupted the French merriment and fine food as the longbows delivered with stunning accuracy matching their astonishing range. The range of the longbow being an advantage was relatively short-lived as this super-weapon was soon copied by every army across Europe but too late to cause surprise as tactics, especially pertaining to the distance from the enemy when establishing campsites.

 

Human history could be considered as a succession of super weapons and the tactics and next super-weapons to counter them. For years the chariot was the ultimate weapon which was used to the utmost perfection by the Egyptians and later the Persians and the one form of attack for which Alexander the Great specifically trained his infantry in a tactic by which to not only blunt their effectiveness but actually defeat their use completely, even the bladed chariot which spun sword-like blades from each wheel. The chariot eventually became the tank and the arrow the bullet, grenade and the anti-tank rockets. The trireme became the galleon and then the ironclad to the battleship and aircraft carrier. The hot air balloon used to aim artillery eventually led to the biplane which was turned to a machine of war which would become the heavy bomber of World War II and eventually the jet fighters and strategic bombers. These strategic bombers today carry the ultimate weapon man has produced to this day, nuclear weapons. These weapons have been developed to perform precise tasks. These include thermonuclear weapons capable of destroying cities, tactical nuclear weapons useable for total destruction on a scale appropriate for the battlefield, neutron bombs which destroy the living beings while leaving the buildings and all material things completely intact, an Electromagnetic Pulse device which destroys electronic devices with more effective such devices capable of destroying electronic grids on an unimaginable scale, or even the most simple of nuclear weapons such as those which President Obama has promised to prevent Iran from ever obtaining, for as so many say such weapons must never be used. Perhaps we need never use such a phrase when it would be so much more convincing, especially for the United States and its representatives, to say that such weapons must never be permitted to be used ever again and demand that the memory of their initial use be recalled and their horrors understood and perhaps even a bit of contrition might go a long way in proving the honesty of intentions.

 

The unfortunate reality is that eventually nuclear weapons will fall into or already exist in the wrong hands and they will be utilized as weapons of war once more. They might be implemented as a weapon of last resort to attempt to alter what appears a certain defeat. They might be implemented as the initial weapon in order to produce a level of destruction making any opposition impossible and producing what is hoped will result in an unalterable victory. They might be used solely to alter the areas of a battlefield where defeat appears inevitable or used to replace artillery in paving a clear path for an advance. The inevitable truth is every ultimate weapon has been used in war even despite treaties or agreements. World War I saw the extensive use of nerve agents and poison gas which produced such a horrific toll in human life that it was relegated to the dustbin of history presumably due to treaties reached after the war making their use illegal. There have even been weapons control treaties since then forcing the destruction of stores of chemical and nerve agents. Still, despite the red line threat by United States President Obama, Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad turned to chemical weapons repeatedly ignoring any threats and calling President Obama who backed down sputtering helplessly until Russian President Putin offered a way out which the United states President jumped at and then allowed for Assad to renege on the deal without paying any penalty. There have been laws to war agreed upon by major powers but often only ever observed by one side in most conflicts. Another weapon which saw extended use even to the recent age but has been targeted for elimination by the United Nations and numerous nations are landmines due to their toll of killing civilians even years after the war in which they were utilized had ended. The same is the case for cluster munitions which place bomblets across a wide area often scattering many unexploded munitions which are relatively small but remain deadly even for years after the conflict has ended. These as well have hurt many civilians and often have taken the lives of children most regrettably. There are presumably treaties against the use of weapons of mass destruction which, unsurprisingly, nuclear weapons are the current kings. Still, the treaties are merely pieces of paper and are not the most effective counter to any kind of weapons and especially not against nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.

 

All of this leads us to the current situation where we have been told that huge amounts of progress have been made and a framework has been constructed for the remainder of the negotiations which will now have June 30 of this year to reach a final agreement. The expectation is that we will believe that the framework is the actual and set in stone agreement of principles from which the rest of the agreement will be fleshed out and the framework will define the end agreement. What the Iranians have agreed is that they provided President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry with their necessary framework which includes everything they had pursued and explained to the Iranians were necessary for them to continue. This was granted to them but the Iranians have little if any intent of continuing to negotiate using the framework as their model and skeleton around which to structure the finished agreement. The Iranians have simply provided President Obama a piece of paper to wave around and claim victory knowing that the end result will have little if anything in common with the framework. The Iranians believe that everything is fungible and the framework is actually made of wet clay and can be remolded and remodeled until it looks exactly what Iran desires or it will be balled up and discarded. President Obama has about as much a framework as British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlin had after the 1938 Munich treaty with Germany. There is a great difference between the framework and the Munich treaty, there are a lot more people suspicious and untrusting that any kind of agreement has been defined by this framework and that the June 30 deadline is almost as meaningless as the past deadlines which have been redefined repeatedly thus far. The odds are that just like North Korea, the Iranians have developed and are producing nuclear weapons and readying the necessary missiles including ICBMs on which to mount their warhead. One thing that makes this even more believable is that many in the State Department negotiations team are the same people who made up the negotiating team that negotiated North Korea into being nuclear armed on their watch. The parallels between the two negotiations are astounding where though the locations have changed, there are actually many of the same players.

 

The thing that needs to be debated is what to do should, or when, it becomes obvious that the Iranians have been negotiating in bad faith and have been developing and building nuclear weapons while giving the IAEA inspectors the runaround and extending negotiations until they are ready for whatever usage they have planned for their nuclear weapons arsenal. This is not because Secretary of State Kerry is intentionally permitting this farce to occur with his being a willing accomplice. He likely believes that he and the team selected are working towards a comprehensive agreement that will prevent the Iranians from developing and building nuclear weapons. Of course there is the possibility that President Obama and those working with the Iranians are all knowingly working a grand deception. Those believing such a conspiracy existing are beyond skeptical and possibly beyond cynical and into the range of conspiracy theorists who find monsters, intrigues, schemings, duplicities and deceits of every nature lurking everywhere in our world and especially in those places where actions by their government and even more so when their government is dealing with other governments and the more governments the more conspiracies they can believe. I envy such people as they live in a world of scheming and intrigues at every turn; it must be fascinating with options beyond calculations. Me, I try to limit myself to one or two conspiracy theories per week as I find enough need for antacids at that level of cunning treacherous inane insanity.

 

When it comes to the Iranian P5+1 talks we do not need to imagine conspiracies or trickery as there is sufficient reality to keep one’s mind reeling from the levels of absurdity. The Iranian P5+1 talks have been a part of President Obama’s foreign policy where it has been his hope to negotiate a rapprochement with the Mullahs and leadership of Iran bringing them into the light, so to speak, much in the way that Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon pioneered relations with mainland China. Unfortunately for President Obama, unlike China which was seeking a path into the community of nations, Iran has a totally different dream where they lead the newly unified Islamic world of Shiite Muslims into the great conflagration which will bring the return of the Twelfth Imam and the inevitable Islamic universal rule over the Earth forever in unity, peace, tranquility and perfection as defined by the Quran. The newest intrigue came recently when a journalist, who had close ties presumably with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani running the media campaign which many claim was instrumental in his rise to the Presidency, arrive in Lausanne, Switzerland to cover the negotiations surprised the world and sought asylum defecting from Iran. The Journalist named Amir Hossein Motaghi in an interview with an opposition channel from London claiming not to see any sense pursuing the profession of journalist since he only wrote what he was told and not to do honest reporting. But he had far more interesting information, which many immediately jumped upon as convincing evidence of a conspiracy, when he harshly criticized the American role in the talks was solely to convince the other nations of the P5+1, France, Britain, Germany, China and Russia, to accept the Iranian demands in forming the agreement. He also presumably revealed another conspiracy in that a good number of the Iranian negotiating team are reporters dispatched to assure that the only news being reported in Iran meets with the government approval. Hopefully he does not expect that part of his story to shock too many people but his report that the United States is working with Iran and has taken the role of easing the Iranian preferred agreement through the other western nations as Russia and China are not likely to disagree with such wording of an agreement. The proof will come either at the completion of the negotiations in the wording of the final agreement, not even remotely any framework, or when Iran uses a nuclear weapon either in a test or in an actual attack on another nation.

 

There is one other aspect of the worth of any agreement, and that is the intent of the signatories now and onto future rulers. Should anybody decide to ignore the agreement, either on the Iranian side or a future President of the United States deciding that they are not bound by the agreement, then it dies a quick and merciful death. That is the one item which nobody other than the people in question can answer and that is such a remote probability as to make for some additional conspiracy theories. While I am not privileged to know any of these schemes, I can guess that just as many claim perfidy by President Obama, ignorance by Secretary of State Kerry, and differing levels of deceit and dishonesty. The interesting thing is that there are numerous people, some holding high national offices, who are predicting the inevitability for Iran attaining nuclear weapons despite any agreement which might be signed at the end of the negotiations, should such an end ever come to fruition. That is the biggest problem with these negotiations as the existence of a term which is defined in the writings of the Quran named taqiyya (Arabic: طاقية) which allows Muslims to hide their true intentions when doing so is required to advance conditions facilitating the advance of Islamic policies or to give the individuals and those they represent or function with an advantage by pretense, dissimulation or outright lying. This could potentially make any agreement made with the Iranians worthless in reality if they are able to deceive about their intents and sign anything with the intent of completely ignoring the terms and limitations of that treaty. When you partner in negotiations believes that it is perfectly moral and virtuous to deceive you and conceal their intents and even define items to mean exactly the opposite or mean anything other than your understanding, then the wording of any agreement is worthless. This was the problem with the 1938 Munich agreement which eventually cost Europe the ultimate price, a price they are still reaping the rewards of that mistake. I fear if the negotiations with Iran produce similar results, the world will be unable to hold up under the ramifications of deceit in these talks.

 

Another word and concept that should be taken into consideration is Hudna (Arabic هدنة) as its definition is vitally important, especially if the Iranians are looking at this as such a treaty, then we know that it can only be expected to apply for a decade at the longest. Perhaps this is why the major stipulations of the framework are set to expire after ten years. If that was the reasoning behind such a limitation, then why was that not mentioned as it would have been the perfect excuse for the limitation. Maybe there are too many coincidences or maybe we are being denied all the pertinent information, but there are too many things which are suspicious about the framework that beg for an explanation to just let things go by without questions being asked and answers given. Maybe we are all becoming too cynical and suspicious leading us to read more into trying to explain things which will be explained as the final agreement is laid out. The last item that is really worth demanding an explanation is why this agreement will be reached and affirmed by a back door to force it on the American public. Having the treaty affirmed by the United Nations and not through Congress does place a dark cloud of suspicion over the deliberations, the seeming near blackout with information being carefully released to the public and all the secrecy just screams for us to look out and demand some of that transparency we were promised when President first ran and won office in 2008 as the lack of same also leads solely to public suspicions. Just this once open the doors and windows and allow the light of day to shine on everything as what do you have to lose as you are in the final two years or is this the final surrender in your plan to remake America and her place in the world. I sure hope this is not a total cover-up for allowing the Iranians to gain nuclear weapons so they can become the world’s hegemonic power in the Middle East, as that has to be one of the worst betrayals of the free world in history. If that is your plan for your legacy, then you will receive a special place in history, the place of the singular President who brought on the final conflagration that Albert Einstein claimed would cause the next war after that to be fought with sticks and stones. I promise you that is not the remembrance you should desire as it will cause the memory of your name to be even worse than that of Benedict Arnold or Guy Fawkes and be the President that sold out the world and all sense and reason simply seeking a legacy. What a legacy that will make.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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