Can One be Pro-Arab-Palestinian and Pro-Israel

 

* Special at the end of the article is an extra piece I found which may be of interest. It is a video of Colonel Richard Kemp Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire when he addressed the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies on May 19, 2015. We found his address to be inspiring, informative, as well as right on target describing much of today’s societal ills along with their solution and hope all enjoy it as well.

 

 

Can one be supportive of the Arab-Palestinians and also be supportive of Israel as the Home of the Jewish People? At face value this question appears to be simplistic and completely ridiculous bringing the obvious answer of no, not in any manner. The assumption is if one is to support the Arab Palestinians one must also support the destruction of Israel as the Jewish State and if one supports Israel they must oppose the rights of the Arab-Palestinians. But there is no reason that these two sides need be opposites except that such is the entirety of the media portrayal of the conflict. One might claim that the Arab-Israeli conflict is the last place where there is a division such that only one side can claim victory in the end. It is the one conflict where one side must eradicate the other, or so the media line portrays the story and structures their coverage. It is a completely false narrative which recent events makes complete folly of the premise and the coverage, or should we say the lack of coverage. Let us look at one tale of Arab-Palestinian woes where Israel plays no active part and thus the media has given short riffed in their coverage.

 

The story of which we speak has been the fighting and open destruction being waged by both sides in this conflict in the Yarmouk refugee camp for Arab-Palestinian Refugees. This camp is on the outskirts of Damascus and originally housed tens of thousands of Arab residents with the last official census producing just over one-hundred-thousand Arabs held in the confines of the Yarmouk refugee camp. Even before the Yarmouk refugee camp became a contested area and was safely within the areas held by the Syrian military supporting Syrian Dictator Bashir al-Assad there began the initial problems for the Arab residents within. It was on the Yarmouk refugee camp that many of the initial infamous barrel-bombs were utilized in a blatant attack whose sole purpose was to murder the civilian population and punish the entirety of the population because of a small number who had joined the opposition fight against Assad. It did not matter that there were also those from the Yarmouk refugee camp who were members of the Syrian military and some others fighting by choice with the Syrian Army, all that mattered was the excuse that some small remnant had joined the al-Qaeda al-Nusra Brigades or the Syrian Liberation Army. For that crime Bashir al-Assad passed judgement on the tens of thousands including children, women, elderly and otherwise innocent refugees who had not joined either side and mostly just wished to be left to live their lives. The Yarmouk refugee camp was also one of those sights where chemical weapons were deployed as the barrel-bombs were not murdering the Arab-Palestinian residents quickly enough and some had taken upon themselves the only obvious means to reach safety and had started organizing to flee to Jordan. Reacting to this now framed disloyal act of betrayal for refusing to remain and be murdered, the Arab-Palestinians found loyal Syrian military troops along their route doing everything in their power to kill as many as possible and with the safety of Jordan within sight came the horrific sight of what must have appeared to be an impenetrable line of Syrian troops and heavy weapons waiting to intercept these refugees and prevent their making it to safety.

 

Of course some did make it across the border and joined the other Syrians living in the refugee camps being tended with as much kindness and sympathy as their Jordanian hosts are able to provide but this is still creating a humanitarian crisis just as it has in Turkey and in the Kurdish areas in northern Syria and Iraq. The world and especially the United Nations have largely given minimal efforts in caring for the refugees from the war in Syria and even less, if such is possible, to saving the Arab-Palestinians whose identity now has become Syrian refugees. There is an opportunity for the Arab-Palestinians to gain some advantage should they choose and provide a potentially better life for their children and their children by casting off their denotation as Palestinian and simply become a part of the greater Syrian refugee population. This should be a relatively easy transition as many traced their heritage back to the greater Syrian areas of the Ottoman Empire and are just as much of Syrian heritage as are the other Syrian refugees now struggling as a whole to simply survive. But such is only the end result where those fortunate enough to have made it into the camps outside of war torn Syria.

 

For those who insisted on remaining in the Yarmouk refugee camp their tribulations did not end with the barrel-bombs or the chemical weapons use, it continued with ISIS slowly and destructively sweeping across the camp as their war against Bashir al-Assad and against Hezballah and even other rebel groups all but obviated what remained of the Yarmouk refugee camp. And the devastating battle over the camp and its land was not the final end as ISIS has also taken vengeance on the remaining Arab-Palestinians finding many of them lacking in proper support and practice of ISIS and their defined form of Islam, a form which also requires great sacrifice for the cause of ISIS and for those of fighting ability joining their ranks or watching their entire family be slaughtered before being killed themselves. Where are the outcries against this horrific treatment of Arab-Palestinians? Where is Mahmoud Abbas, Saeb Erekat, Ismail Haniyeh, Mohammed Dahlan, Jibril Rajoub, Salam Fayyad, Nabil Shaath, Ahmad Qurei, Khaled Mashal, Mohammed Deif and the rest of the leadership from Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah, PLO and the rest of the alphabet Palestinian groups and their leaders? Why has there been no demonstrations, launching of rockets and suicide attacks into Damascus by Palestinian militant groups? Where is UNRWA to protect these Arab-Palestinians facing mortal dangers and a genocidal war waged by all sides against the survivors still living within the confines of the Yarmouk refugee camp? The answer is simple, they are all attempting to find some manner of blaming the tragedy on Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu or other Israeli leader as Syrian President Bashir al-Assad, the Syrian military, the Syrian Free Army, al-Qaeda, the al-Nusra Group, and ISIS obviously cannot be the reason as they are all groups who also are a part of the opposition to the existence of Israel, or at least would be if they were not so intent on murdering each other.

 

The problem for the residents of the Yarmouk neighborhoods are that they are being murdered by Syrian both against and supportive of Bashir al-Assad and in a final measure systematically slaughtered in a genocidal manner by ISIS and all of this being committed step-by-step starting with the Syrian Army shelling with tank fired artillery rounds destroying most of the structures of the Yarmouk neighborhoods, both residences and municipal buildings, then barrel-bombs were dropped targeting any pockets where the residents from the Yarmouk neighborhoods in an attempt to eradicate the remaining residents, then the Syrian Air Force and ground forces unleashed chemical weapons such as Sarin Gas followed by chlorine gas in attempts to slow ISIS advances and again murder the remaining residents of Yarmouk, and then ISIS completed the ethnic cleansing of Muslims as well as any Christians or others by the self-appointed religious inquisitors imposing a Muslim purity judgment on the surviving residents of Yarmouk much the way the Spanish Inquisitors passed sentence on their fellow Christians who were found impure and all others of the defined lesser faiths. Still, the fact that these horrific transgressions are being perpetrated on people formerly made separate as Arab-Palestinian refugees and not simply additional Syrian refugees.

 

Still, when perhaps there might have been some manner to have saved the majority of the Yarmouk residents there was no hue and cry as their tormentors, their murderers were not the correct kind and there was no manner for linkage to Israel as even the Arab-Palestinian leadership in Ramallah and in Gaza made no effort to offer sanctuary for their fellow Arab-Palestinian brothers and sisters. There was rarely a peep of protest raised about this mass-murdering of fellow Arab-Palestinians. As one would have been hard pressed to find a manner through which to link this as blame on the Israelis without their first being required to offer sanctuary and taken responsibility by the Arab-Palestinian leadership whose specialty is not caring for their brothers and sisters but rather raising funds from the Western elite by preying on their guilt over slights past and pocketing their percentage off the top and spending the remainder on weapons to murder Israelis, not care for their fellow Arab-Palestinians. Why would the Arab-Palestinian leadership show any more compassion, any more concern with the welfare, any feelings of responsibility, anything at all towards assisting their fellow Arab-Palestinians facing dangers and sure death when they feel little if any of this for the Arab-Palestinians they presumably represent and are tasked to actually care for and about. The reality is as the Arab-Palestinians from the Yarmouk refugee camp and the other Arab-Palestinians in camps located in either Syria or Lebanon are of little concern except if they can be utilized in some manner to assist in the destruction of Israel.

 

There is a really simply and obvious reason we heard nary a sound nor witnessed any action or compassion towards their fellow Arab-Palestinians whose lives were threatened and whose existence was in peril; there was no manner for taking these refugees and automatically forcing them onto Israel using the right of return argument as that must first be formalized through negotiations as without legal authority or even moral authority for forcing what would amount to illegal immigrants upon Israel these Arab-Palestinian refugees would require being brought within the semiautonomous Arab-Palestinian regions already in existence. By bringing any of the Syrian or Lebanese Arab-Palestinians into the existing areas controlled by the Arab-Palestinians having all legal rights and powers under their own presumed elected governance (even if it was one election one time in 2005 and not again since), that would have placed the lenses of world opinion on the fact that the Arab-Palestinians presumably living on lands under occupation by Israel and ruled over by Israel as being the falsehood that it is. The world would have been witness to the autonomous nature of Arab-Palestinian society and having the reality and truth played out in full portrayal for the world to see. This would be the end of the claims of oppression under the cruelty of the Israeli colonialists and the truth of the Arab-Palestinian oppressions being self-inflicted.

 

Perhaps the Arab-Palestinian leadership was completely unable to step up and take responsibility for the salvation, or at least the protection, of their fellow Arab-Palestinians simply because they have also never found the moral honesty to step up and take responsibility for those unfortunate Arab-Palestinians already betrayed by their own and very same leadership. The reality has been shown that only those Arab-Palestinians who can claim their misery and failures are because of Israel are to be the concern of the world because the truth is that there exists only an extremely small core who can claim to be Pro-Arab-Palestinian as the vast majority of the Pro-Arab-Palestinian are actually more interested in being Anti-Israel thus the truth is one can be Pro-Arab-Palestinian and Pro-Israel but the difficulty comes with being more Pro-Arab-Palestinian than one chooses to be Anti-Israel. The few who honestly care about Arab-Palestinians would have been sounding the outcry for the plight of the Arab-Palestinians at the hands of their brothers on both sides of the massacres as war taking place in Syria and Iraq, and both sides maliciously assaulted in a genocidal manner on the Arab-Palestinians as both sides saw them as an opposing force. That situation is something which should give the world pause to reason out how all sides could view the same subgroup amongst their midst as their enemy. Can it be true that there actually are none who would consider the Arab-Palestinians as potential friends in the tribal world that is the conflict in Syria and other places in the Arab and Muslim world or are they truly found to be abhorrence throughout the Arab world? If such proves true then the entirety of the Arab-Palestinian and Israeli conflict is a war against Israel without any real and honest concern for the Arab-Palestinian, just a burning hatred of Israel, of the Jew and their state, nothing more, nothing less.

 

I am unsure which is the more tragic, the complete lack of concern by the world, especially by the Arabs themselves from every corner, for the safety and protection of the Arab-Palestinians who play such a central role in the war against Israel or the fact that much of the world, its governments, people, organizations and institutions, are all allied set on the path to eradicate the Jewish state. How is this all happening again and so closely upon the witness of the Pogroms by the Czars, the Holocaust by the Nazis and their overly willing populations with those rare and humane exceptions, the Communist oppressive actions cleansing their society of much of its Jews, and now it is gripping all of Europe and beginning in the United States and Canada, especially in the colleges and universities which usually precedes acceptance into the society as a whole within a decade, two decades at the most. Who will be the first to stand against the oldest and seemingly purist hatred this time. Will any follow this leader or should the world simply slide once again towards an attempted genocidal conflict, this time against something the world had thought vanquished, the Jewish state at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea where it was last eradicated as a nation almost two millennia ago by the Romans, before them the Greeks, preceded by the Persians who stand ready to try once more this time as Iran but we remember them as Persia, and even earlier the Babylonians, Assyrians, Philistines and the initial wars in founding the Jewish state against the Canaanites after escaping ancient Egypt. It has been quite a long history reaching back further than any other groups which never grew to numbers which could be considered significant in the world yet always at the fore of everybody’s thoughts. How can such be and what causes this obsession with the Jews, just under two-tenths of one percent of the world population; that is 0.183% or 0.00183 of the world’s 7.6 billion people, and their percentage is in decline already without a world at war with its only Jewish population showing measurable positive growth, at least for now.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

 

* Below is a presentation on society, warfare, morality and a critique of the changes witnessed during his life by Colonel Richard Kemp Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire when he addressed the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies on May 19, 2015.

 

 

 

 

The Sad Truths About American Election 2016

 

The one constant around the world is that everywhere one hears discussions about the upcoming 2016 American elections and the talk immediately turns to the potential Presidential results and how they will either improve or ruin the plans of our leaders, nations, areas, threats, trade or economies. The truth is that trying to divine the thoughts of the American public and how they will vote for in the Presidential elections is complete folly, especially if one is using the relations between in foreign affairs as their criteria. While across the globe the United States foreign policy or lack thereof is of vital importance and in many instances potentially critical and even deadly, the American public usually cannot see any further than their wallet. Yes, there are numerous Americans who understand and even use a fair degree of foreign policy knowledge and positions of Presidential candidates, I must sadly report that when we left the United States that number decreased and even with our presence in the voting booths the people voting their wallets probably outnumbered foreign policy wonks by a thousand to one if not a hundred-thousand to one. This is why the Presidential debates only have one which presumably is advertised as pertaining to foreign policy. The truth is that most of the questions end up actually being turned inside-out, upside-down and twisted all around until it actually sets the candidates attentions to foreign situations as it pertains to the effects it might have on the budget or social programs at home. Still, the choice of who will be the next President of the United States will have a determining effect on every part of the globe; it will just be whether it will be for better or worse. So, what should we seek as far as the most preferentially positive effect generally around the globe?

 

The usual rule of thumb is that a Republican President will be more involved in foreign policy than a Democrat President. This does not necessarily mean this is preferential as it also depends on whether the Republican President has advisors and other assets which drive a thoughtful and thoroughly researched foreign policy or if they have a more seat of the pants reactionary policy. An example of the former would be President Dwight David Eisenhower who though often derogatorily called a do nothing President actually was responsible for the reconstruction of Europe and the Far East policy after the fall of Japan and much of the American ascendance after World War II all while the United States enjoyed some of its best economic growth years in its history. Another President who also did well largely due to advisors was John Fitzgerald Kennedy whose advisors were very knowledgeable and who when tested by Russian President Khrushchev over the Cuban Missile Crisis set a strong and potentially dangerous posture of no nonsense strong response that eventually led to the Soviet Union to retreat from Cuba removing their missiles. Kennedy also answered the Soviet initial success and leads in the start of the space race to set the goal as the Moon and challenged the American space industries and NASA with, “We choose to go to the Moon! … We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.” On the other hand, the United States has had Presidents from both parties who were unmitigated disasters when it came to foreign policy though I will not shame any by naming them and instead allow each to choose their own examples. From the juncture where many currently observe the two Administrations under President Obama, these could easily be defined by numerous presumably traditional friends of the United States, who would, if choosing to be totally candid, would describe these as total disasters with potentially the worst yet to come. Then there are some of the worst mischief makers and oppressors or would be conquerors who likely would heap praise on President Obama’s choice to not challenge anything which might prove challenging or potentially difficult and demanding taking a principled stand.

 

So, first off, let me assure those who might be misled into believing that the Americans generally have begun to awaken and see what a disaster President Obama has been for the world as a whole, if it were somehow made possible for President Obama to run for a third term, the American public would likely reelect him and even the Jewish voters who might claim that Israel is one of their top concerns would still vote for President Obama by an easy majority likely near to sixty-five percent against thirty-five percent voting Republican. Actually, there would be a sizeable percentage of the Jewish voting public who would refuse to vote Republican and simply stay at home which is the same as voting for whichever candidate proves victorious. With this established, this fact does not bode well for the Republican Party if the American public, which is made predominantly of ‘low-information voters’ who vote pretty much as they are advised by such criteria as, my family have always voted Democrat/Republican/Whig (OK, most families who had voted for the Whig Party have moved on since then), what’s his name on Comedy Central/Saturday Night Live/the Late Show/Family Guy/South Park character, Media such as ABC/CBS/NBC/FOX/CNN/PBS/MSNBC, print media, favorite personality/close friend/boss at work/union boss or whatever ridiculous source even to include Tarot Card reader’s advice, are the mainstay of the voting public which as time has passed has become more the norm. This is partly why the politicians fight over voting rules such as removing people from voter rolls through validation techniques to remove those who have moved, died or not voted in decades or the need for picture identifications, motor voter laws, and even register to vote outside the polling place and then enter and vote or permitting prisoners to vote even from death row as there is no area not pursued as a voting base that the party who thinks something is to their advantage will not use to the utmost of their ability. So, we have established that the American voting public is not necessarily the pure cerebral and reasoned public which Thomas Jefferson, Sam Adams, or James Madison envisioned, though probably Benjamin Franklin may have had the right attitude and worldly experience to realize how far the electorate would eventually slip. So, now what?

 

The next is choosing who will most likely be the candidate for each of the two major parties. Let us start with the Republican Party and the myriad of candidates there seeking to be the candidate chosen to represent the party in the elections in November 2016. The one thing we are assured is that the Republican candidates will mostly be breaking what President Ronald Reagan called the Eleventh Commandment, do not speak ill of thy fellow Republicans. The Republican candidates will refuse to bow out until it becomes mathematically impossible for them to win the nominations and some even then will continue just in case they can make a surge from out of the blue once the delegates are freed to vote however they choose, usually around the fifth ballot or later. With all the candidates, and a fair number of top ties candidates, it is quite likely that the Republican Party may reach its convention without any one candidate with sufficient numbers of delegates to win on the first or second ballot and there may be five candidates who are all actually closely matched in candidate count with none even remotely close to a majority or even a resounding plurality. This might lead to a lengthy and harshly fought convention which will go into the fourth day or beyond without reaching some resolution or producing a candidate. There appears now that Jeb Bush will have a loyal set of establishment delegates and the ‘movers and shakers and moneyed establishment supporting him while the Tea Party and Christian Right will be divided amongst a core of select candidates including but not limited to Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Dr. Ben Carson and Scott Walker; with the likes of Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and Bobby Jindal will all have a base of support which may be sufficient to retain their hopes and finally there is Carly Fiorina who as the sole woman, might receive additional support as she is the only candidate against whom Hilary Clinton would not have the advantage of gender running to be the first American female President. The end result is whoever eventually survives the scathing attacks and fevered battle with the nomination may find themselves limping into the actual Presidential election race as damaged goods sorely injured by their own party. Oddly enough the one person who might mostly escape such infighting and scorn from their fellow Republicans might be Carly Fiorina simply because should she avoid falling prey to the gotcha media assaults most Republicans face, she could be the one without any damaged armor and slide between the barbs and arrows and prove the strongest candidate of them all and take the nomination with minimal damage and able to rally the Republican base and establishment as she belongs to neither but can make overtures to both.

 

That brings us to the Democrat Convention and the presumed coronation of Hillary Clinton as the ‘deserved one,’ the ‘chosen one.’ From the very beginning I have not believed that Hilary Clinton would survive to become the Democrat Party Presidential candidate in 2016 or ever as if she is cast aside this time it will be for good. Hillary Clinton’s most formidable and undefeatable opponent is Hillary Clinton of campaigns and offices past which will eventually make her untenable as a candidate. Her time as Secretary of State will tie her inexorably to President Obama’s disastrous foreign policy and much of the blame for President Obama’s failures will be heaped upon Hillary and she will be unable to escape this baggage. Additionally there will be the baggage from the entire Benghazi debacle, and even worse, her hearings before the Congress where the immortal words were uttered never to stop echoing in many ears where Hillary, referring to four dead Americans including two men whose heroic efforts became known making the inaction simply unacceptable and un-American and now forever tied to her stating, “With all due respect, the fact is we had four dead Americans. Was it because of a protest or was it because of guys out for a walk one night who decided that they’d they go kill some Americans? What difference at this point does it make?” The absolute cynicism of her caustic remarks and the bald faced attempt to brush off any responsibility and to make any questions in this area as improper as that the reason for the hearings was not about those who gave their lives presumably in service of their country and for a mission which originated within the State Department, but to allow Hillary Clinton to be cleansed of any wrong-doing and to be vindicated and be lauded for striving to assure that such a situation never again presented such a deadly situation. The line of questions seeking to pinpoint blame was, in Hillary’s mind, completely out of bounds. Between Benghazi, the e-mail scandals, the missing records, scrubbed and sanitized memos and communications, Clinton Foundation contributions and influence peddling from her position as Secretary of State, foreign monies which likely were derived as payments for favors, the rise of Blumenthal communications concerning Libya where he had business interests while advising Hillary Clinton during her time as Secretary of State as well as numerous other scandals yet to surface, and Hillary Clinton is damaged even beyond the capability for the Democrat Party to attempt to repair her to make her presentable to the public. All the baggage which has been in the mainstream news about Hillary Clinton was originally being exposed now early in the process and before she announced her intentions to run for President such that it could be labelled old news already beaten to death if brought up during the campaign by the Republican side. The problem is that there seemingly is no end to the scandals as they just keep jumping out from everywhere. As the media and Democrat operatives keep attempting to put these scandals to rest and tie up all the loose ends they run into another problem and then a scandal which follows as night follows day and there is no putting this to bed as more and more loose ends keep appearing and the Hillary apologists are beginning to become somewhat short tempered as their patience dies. In the end Hillary Clinton and former President William Jefferson Clinton will be required to hang up their hopes of returning to the White House until Chelsey is old enough which will be fairly soon, so they should get her elected to some office, governor of the state of their choosing, Maryland sounds easy as does Massachusetts.

 

So, with no Hillary as their candidate, who can the Democrats turn to as their best bet? There are a number of people which have been mentioned as potential replacements should Hillary self-destruct. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley though his having also been Mayor of Baltimore might be a slight drawback, Vice President Biden who has a history of foot-in-mouth disease but actually would be solid in foreign policy as even if a threat he made in a speech by his going off-script the adversary would never know for sure whether or not Old Joe might actually follow through. Bernie Sanders has also declared his interest and though we agree on very little I admire his forthrightness and honesty which are very admirable qualities and he can be counted on to do what he says and say what he means. Then we have Andrew Cuomo and Howard Dean who both are known for mouths beyond their control, Al Franken also has given a definite maybe which is quite comical as well as noncommittal though he and Biden debating would make for great comedy, and finally Ms. Elizabeth Warren whose credentials, or lack thereof, are equal to those of President Obama when he took up the mantle of Democrat candidate for President with a few critical differences making her worthy of a deeper look.

 

Though Senator Elizabeth Warren has claimed she is not running, this may not be left as her choice as she has a sizable supportive following without ever overtly seeking such. She is a far superior believer in the true Progressive way of which President Obama campaigned upon in his initial 2008 campaign. She is well spoken and needs little prompting from any crutches such as a teleprompter. Senator Elizabeth Warren is quick on her feet, knows what she believes and is very comfortable in stating her views unequivocally and with great passion. She is a strong supporter for individual rights though she does appear to place too much emphasis and burden upon government for protecting individuals from failure by providing a broad and sweeping system of safety nets and she does not appear to be adverse to a guaranteed minimal wage for everybody whether they be employed or not. She favors Obamacare with some modifications making it more workable, not less dependent on government as her adjustments would bring Obamacare closer to a single payer health plan than as it currently sits. Senator Elizabeth Warren is a believer in Keynesian economics where the government is the principle engine behind the economy. She also is opposed to free trade much of the time claiming instead to stand for fair trade which she has not fully explained. She is a through and through socialist progressive and like Bernie Sanders says what she means and means what she says and always sticking to that exact path. At least she would not produce any big surprises as the Democrat candidate or a President if successfully elected. Her largest area which is unfortunately untested and unknown is foreign policy. Here she would be untested and undefined and until such could be filled in she should not be taken as a serious candidate. But as I explained, foreign policy is the last and least of things on the average American’s mind so it is quite likely that with her populist political talking points and her appeal to those dependent upon government Senator Elizabeth Warren would likely gain a large popular appeal and could breeze to the Democrat nomination once Hillary Clinton realizes she had already failed and failed miserably, but it remains to be seen if she will even be willing to be dragged thus appearing to have the nomination and run in the primaries thrust upon her rather than actively sought. Though I have little in common with Senator Elizabeth Warren’s viewpoints and fear her lack of foreign policy experience or even exposure, I find that she would have little problem being elected as the next United States President, her biggest obstacle would be attaining the Democrat nomination and that is something remaining to be seen. The final note is that the next President of the United States will be the one who emerges as the victor in the Democrat nomination and only give the Republican candidate a one in three chance at winning the general election. But there is still a race to be run and we have to have the race just to prove every prognosticator to be so wrong it is embarrassing.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Existential Crisis Most Likely to Bring New Elections

 

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Prime Minister in his own mind Yair Lapid had their fateful meeting where the real Prime Minister basically laid out what would be required from Yair Lapid and his party members in order to continue the current coalition. One of the problems which have struck the coalition has been the idea by the other party leaders that they should be the Prime Minister and run the government. Yair Lapid was rumored to even have attempted to patch together his own coalition and exercise a coup of sorts and take over the government through a deal with opposition parties thus forcing a new government without having new elections. Then we have the twisted dreams of Tzipi Livni who believes that she is fated to be Prime Minister because she honestly feels she has been robbed of her opportunity to lead the nation and will likely continue to pursue this phantom reality for the rest of her political life. There is the expected leader and head of the opposition parties Yitzhak Herzog, the leader of the Labor Party, has already claimed his rightful position as Prime Minister in waiting convinced that new elections will serve as the cleansing of the government of Prime Minister Netanyahu and instead bring a liberal wave sweeping Herzog into the Prime Minister slot. He was quoted speaking of the inevitable results of new elections stating, “The Labor party will lead the bloc that will win the election and give hope and a new reality for the citizens of Israel.” Apparently these Prime Ministerial candidates holding these delusional beliefs have either not read any of the polling done or they believe, as Yitzhak Herzog stated just the other day, that the polls are meaningless as they have sampled those they know and all of the people in their circle agree that new elections will place them at the head of the next government. If I were to ask those closest to me if I would win the coming elections and get to form the next coalition government I am sure that at least one or two would play along and assure me that I was not delusional, but they would also realize I was joking. Unfortunately for Israel, these Prime Minister wannabes are not joking and believe their own propaganda that they are the next chosen one.

 

This crisis was brought to a head when the proposed Jewish State Law which was intended to restate and reaffirm that Israel is the home of the Jewish People as well as a democracy where every citizen is guaranteed their respective rights as citizens. To any casual observer this law would be a no brainer but instead it became the initial protest vote where both Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni threatened their voting against the Jewish State Law should it be brought to the Knesset for a vote. This led to rewording the bill in attempts to make it palatable to the few who insisted on remaining unappeasable. The reality is that both party leaders were actually more upset that the governing coalition refused to tow their line and follow their agendas and instead were following the agenda put forth by the Prime Minister and originally voted for as part and parcel of joining the coalition upon its formation. So, it now appears that Israel is about to go into another election with all the usual posturing and backstabbing starting with each party holding their disparate meetings or votes or some combination thereof in order to present their list of proposed Knesset Ministers for well past their polled expectations to receive once the election results are finalized. The expectations from current polling, something that is almost meaningless as elections have historically brought surprises and twists beyond belief, has Likud remaining the largest block of Ministerial positions and thus most likely to be chosen to form the next coalition. There are indications that the next largest party might be Jewish Home which will be a surprise to the leftist parties who are expecting the Israeli voters to cast off both Likud and Jewish Home in favor of Labor, Meretz and Yesh Atid. The polling has also indicated that Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party will only manage to win half the number of seats in the Knesset than they did in their initial and surprising success in their inaugural presentation before the voting public in the last election. These polls also depicted Tzipi Livni’s HaTnuah Party as barely making a minimal entry number of seats if even breaking the threshold required to be represented in the Knesset, let alone receive the nod to form the next government. The one hope all of those vying to be the next Prime Minister can invest their aspirations upon is that the least likely thing which was unexpected by all the pollsters, party leaders, experts and prognosticators and initially dismissed as insignificant can still resonate with the Israeli public while remaining below the radar and surging forth on election day to produce the unexpected results in the next elections completely throwing all the news outlets an unseen curve which they will be at a loss to explain. The elections may prove once again that there is no such thing as a sure bet when the voting public gets to make the decisions.

 

Of course new elections are not yet guaranteed as it will take a vote in the Knesset to dissolve the parliament and hold elections and there is the possibility that Yair Lapid will return to the fold and swallow his pride for the good of the coalition and by such an action garner some new supporters which always is a desired result for any politician. Lapid was given five acts he must agree to if he desires to avoid new elections. These were to stop attacking the coalition and especially to end his criticisms of the building plans in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria and the Israeli relations with the United States. Next he was to transfer the six billion shekels to the defense budget as promised for their development of Iron Dome systems and armored personnel carriers. Third was to release the funding for the IDF relocation to the new Negev as was agreed upon by coalition agreements, something Lapid was blocking going so far as to have frozen this funding taking what he referred to as a principled stand. Fourth was for him to support the final version of the Jewish State Law. Finally he would be required to surrender and shelve the zero percent VAT relief bill he had been pushing for very determinedly. This final demand is expected to be the last straw and the one Lapid will refuse to meet thus likely forcing new elections.

 

One reading the polls would expect that Lapid would find it easier to remain in the current coalition where his Yesh Atid Party enjoys nineteen seats in the Knesset, a far cry better than the nine seats which many polls have indicated he would receive from new elections. The guessing here believes that Yesh Atid would probably suffer an even bigger embarrassment and only manage six or maybe seven seats and be on its way to extinction unless Yair Lapid could find a path back to the promises and apparent ideals he initially presented as the guiding essentials set forth in the last election. Those who suspected that much of the Zionist and nationalist line that Minister Lapid had professed was more ruse than ideological foundation as it was presented. These suspicions proved to be valid as once in the government Yair Lapid appeared to inexorably veer to the left and discard much of his nationalist agenda and instead attempt to inject his liberal slant into policy even at the expense of manipulating the budget which he had promised certain arrangements and allocations which he in the end did not deliver on. And this may only be the tip of the iceberg of potential changes which might be produced by holding new elections. The largest changes are always the ways in which the factions and parties arrange their own coalitions’ makeup. The most evident breakup has already taken place in which the one-time marriage of Likud with Yisrael Beiteinu which will also mean that Avigdor Lieberman will be leading his own party rather than being second on the combined ticket with Bibi Netanyahu taking the top slot. Netanyahu is probably expected by most to continue to take the top slot on any Likud ticket but that may not be as guaranteed as one might believe. There will be a credible challenge to Netanyahu in the voting for the Likud ticket as Danny Danon is expected to give Netanyahu a challenge from the right and even more nationalistic Zionist side of the party. We could potentially see a Likud ticket with a new face at the helm which may signal a changing of the guard within Likud even should Danny Danon fall short in his challenge. Danon is definitely one of the future leaders in Likud and the time is rapidly approaching for these new leaders to step forth. Other than the breakup of Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, there may be other alterations to more parties and combinations than could be readily covered in this article and are best left for after the parties have all filed and made public their intents. Then there will be the leadership challenges in parties other than Likud. We have to wait and see if the somewhat controversial leader of Jewish Home, Naftali Bennett, remains the top man on their ticket and whether they will continue with their current makeup or if some factions might go it on their own. Then there may be a contest for the leadership position of the Haredi parties, largely concerning in Shas and whether the more liberal and left leaning Arye Deri remains in the number one slot or if Eli Yishai or Ariel Atias will make a successful challenge from the more nationalist and right leaning side of the party. With the passing of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef there can now be a true contest for the leadership of the Shas Party. Labor just recently had a change in leadership with Yitzhak Herzog taking the top spot replacing Shelly Yachimovitch. After all is said and done the next government may very well have a similar outward appearance to the current coalition but within there will be some changes, just how many and how far this difference proves to be remains to be seen. If Likud has a new person topping their ticket, such a change could excite the electorate or perhaps the shock of Bibi Netanyahu being replaced will be too much for the Israeli public. Then there are some polls which have shown Jewish Home Party actually replacing Likud as the leader in the Knesset and thus very likely making their first name on their Knesset list the next Prime Minister. It still remains to be seen if that name will continue to be Naftali Bennett. And then again, there is still hope for yours truly as, after all, those I have talked to still hold out hope for me to be picked to form the next government, and why not? Talk about strange happenings, that would take the cake.

 

Beyond the Cusp