Netanyahu Coalition is Ungovernable

 

Prime Minister Netanyahu was able to form a government, but with just a bare bones, slim and minimum sixty-one Ministers. The numbers break down as such; Likud is the predominant party by a mile with their thirty Ministers followed by Kulanu, a new party with ten Ministers along with Shas with seven Ministers and United Torah Judaism with six Ministers and the last party joining at the eleventh hour, Jewish Home with their eight Ministers. Tallied up that is

30 + 10 + 7 + 6 + 8 = 61

The minimum number necessary to hold a majority of the one-hundred-twenty seat Knesset. Having the minimum numbers Netanyahu will likely make some deals to secure three or four additional Ministers who will agree to bolster the coalition though unspoken as their Party did not accept joining the coalition for whatever reasons, some strictly political and others purely tactical and still others a combination of reasons including posturing. There are some still waiting for Yisrael Beiteinu headed by Avigdor Lieberman to potentially join or offer to be the saving cushion with its six Ministers able to make-up for some wayward coalition members on certain votes thus threatening the coalition. Needless to point out, Prime Minister Netanyahu has cobbled together a coalition which as it stands cannot govern for very long before any single party or even an internal faction within Likud could force a crisis and bring down the government. Should the coalition fail then President Reuven Rivlin could call for snap elections to be held again giving an even shorter campaign cycle bringing Israelis back to the polls yet another time so quickly. The turnout for another government would likely have a lower turnout potentially changing the mix of parties as Israelis would measure their votes against the results of the recently past elections where many Israelis were less than thrilled with the results.

 

Still, do not expect overt changes but rather a refining of the vote with the potential for increases in the portions for Jewish Home, Kulanu and Yisrael Beiteinu. On the other hand, the protestations and self-important tantrums thrown by Yair Lapid could affect the numbers received by his Yesh Atid Party placing some of his eleven Ministers vulnerable to lost support. New elections might bring into play the joint parties of Yachad and Otzma Yehudit which missed making Knesset by the slimmest of margins. New elections could produce a far stronger Jewish Home which was on the mend in the final days of the election but never did quite make it all the way back to the high-points it had hit earlier in many polls. Additionally, one might expect to see Yachad and Otzma Yehudit make it past threshold which would bring a change in the end total results as Yachad and Otzma Yehudit would easily reach four and potentially higher as they would be able to prevent some of the rumored destruction of their ballots and also such simple things as swapping out their ballots with others and other such tricks and deceptions. It could also be predicted that the Zionist Union Party would split back to their two parties, the Labor Party and Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah Party. While Hatnuah Party would likely not come even remotely close to breaking the minimum and would not make the Knesset, the split might make the Labor Party cleaner and without Tzipi Livni it would potentially garner two or three additional seats. Meretz and the Joint Arab List would each remain the same of gain or lose a single seat.

 

The question of the hour is how long the slender coalition can hold together when all it would take is a protest by the single Minister protesting to bring down the coalition. There have already been some rumblings of discontent within Likud by some of the Ministers who had their hearts set on gaining some of the Ministerships which ended up being given to the joining coalition members as they demanded those Ministerial positions from which they could wield the power of the department which would have the greatest and most direct influence in addressing their promises from the elections. The coalition coming out of the gate will likely be tested potentially by opposition members. Yair Lapid has already threatened to take the current coalition to court as it has more Ministerial positions which is one item which always seems to grow and is fortunately cut back every so often; after all, do we really want these politicians thinking they are more important than they actually are? This government is inherently unstable which will make for a wild ride while watching for what will be the defining moment when it becomes obviously impossible to hold the coalition together any longer. Sometimes it is the most fragile of coalitions which end up holding together for the longest amount of time as the members realize exactly how fragile their rule is and treat it as the vital but fragile thing as it really is. Still, there are going to be a good number of members of the opposition who see this tight race where the Prime Minister was only capable forming the most delicate of beast of a coalition.

 

The one item such a coalition, constantly under threat of collapsing, gives the Prime Minister a perfect reason to state that this is not the time to rock the boat and press through any peace initiatives from the outside world. All it would take to shoot down any demands for Israel to make additional sacrifices for peace is a single person threatening to leave the coalition should such a proposition even be introduced, let alone actually forced through the Knesset. This is already understood by even the most ignorant and blind fool, yet I might bet that such a proposition will not prevent the Europeans and President Obama from making just such demands as it does not cost them any lost sleep if the Israeli government should collapse as the sole purpose there is an Israeli government, according to too many people both within and outside of Israel, is to make sacrifices before the Arab Palestinian Authority as such sacrifices are the sole item expected from Israel and thus from her government no matter the size or opposition to such demands. The simple and obvious fact that there are members of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s own Likud Party who have threatened to vote against or resign from their positions, not to mention the entirety of the Jewish Home delegation would hopefully bolt from the coalition if such a vote in favor of such were demanded from them.

 

Hopefully this slim coalition can hold its own against all assaults from the entire spectrum starting from within the government and reaching as far as Turtle Bay in New York where the United Nations is located, and is just barely further than Washington D. C. and the White House. Perhaps the knowledge that the coalition is so fragile will force the Ministers within the majority to work together for the betterment of Israel. May such a government prove fortified against Israel making any sacrifices to entice the Arab representatives to come and grace us with their presence for as long as they are comfortable and then bolt from any further meetings where it is again demanded of Israel to sweeten the pot to get the Arab representatives to grace us with their presence for as long as they are comfortable and then bolt from any further meetings where it is again … No more climbing aboard the flight to the destruction of Israel and time for a new approach, annexing lands until Arabs honestly decide to enter into talks designed to end the conflict and make an agreement satisfactory with Israel otherwise Israel is satisfied with the terms and accepts granting the Arabs some adequate areas for them to have semiautonomous controls while remaining under Israeli security control and remain an integral part of Israel. There is no need or necessity which requires Israel to surrender any of the lands promised her in the San Remo Agreement and the fact Israel will permit a semi-autonomous defined region within the whole State of Israel living with in and with peace with Israel should be accepted and satisfy the world which can then go address real problems in the world. That is a stance for which this narrow coalition can unify and stand united demanding that their aspirations be included as integral to any final agreements.

 

Beyond the Cusp

Coalition Choices Will Reveal if Sacrifice to Vote Likud Was Righteous

 

If as all are assuming and Benyamin Netanyahu is chosen by President Rivlin to attempt to form a ruling coalition, the choices which Netanyahu makes, and the sacrifices he decides are either favoring his intentions or necessary for assuming power, will be scrutinized by the Religious Zionists who have already made a huge sacrifice taking away votes, mandates and eventually influence from their normative parties such as Jewish Home (: הַבַּיִת הַיְהוּדִי), Yachad (יַחַד) and any other nationalist, Zionist, religious or politically conservative party and entrusted Netanyahu and the additional Knesset Ministers to carry out their desired goals. There have been signs that Netanyahu recognizes these sacrifices but it will remain for all to witness for how long he keeps these trusts in mind and for how long, if at all, the additional Ministers remain faithful to the traditional and core principles found within the Likud foundational documents and beliefs. Some of the important trusts which Netanyahu could perform immediately after the Knesset votes affirming his coalition range from the easy, shattering the silent building freeze and allow extensive enlargement of the communities in Judea and Samaria including allowance for the seeding of new communities and industrial and other economic centers across the width and breadth of Area C and, further down the road, adding new ventures in Area B.

 

Netanyahu can alter the conversation of forming an independent Arab state by stating that Israel is willing to allow a semi-autonomous Arab entity which rules its denoted area independent of Israel as far as governing themselves much as they currently live but remaining as an autonomous entity within Israel and reliant on the IDF for any defensive requirements and restricted from acting on the international level such as making treaties with other nations or acting in ways detrimental to the needs, requirements, political policies or relations beyond those already existent within Israeli foreign policies and relations. As Prime Minister of Israel he should bring the Levy Report to the forefront of Israeli actions towards the lands of Judea and Samaria and stress the commitments that Israel expects the world to recognize as explained and set out in the report’s conclusion.

 

As Prime Minister, Netanyahu must also begin and reinforce stressing constantly Article 80 of the United Nations Charter and bring to the fore the San Remo Conference documents and surround these two legally binding principles recognized and presumably enforceable under International Law making an airtight irrevocable claim of ownership over all of Judea and Samaria as well as the rest of the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. These ideas and their implications should end any further claims that International Law forbids Israel from annexing all of Judea and Samaria as long as the Arabs residing within the annexed areas retain full religious rights, full human rights, full legal rights, and virtually any form of rights imaginable with one very important exception, they may be denied political rights. This is the situation which must be stressed due to its importance and revealing the full rights pertaining to the Israeli rights to all the lands making them not only no longer contested but that their occupation by the Arabs is illegal and that any autonomy granted to the Arabs by Israel cannot and will not be construed as allowing for an independent Arab State or any other state as the lands were preserved for the Jewish State under International Law without even a sliver of doubt or contention by any other entity.

 

During the forming of the Twentieth Knesset, Prime Minister Netanyahu must make every effort not to include Yesh Atid and thus place Yair Lapid in the opposition thus any disturbance which emanates from him will not be a direct threat to the coalition or cause the governing coalition to be dissolved. The formation of a ruling coalition which is stable and supportive of the principles which Netanyahu was elected to pursue, protect and empower should be the foremost thought and a requirement of which each party must agree to value just as stridently and with vigor equal to that used backing their primary issues without exception. Here is the list of the Parties according to ideology and probability to be included in the coalition to those expected to be relegated to the opposition: Likud – 29, Jewish Home – 8, Yisrael Beiteinu – 6, Shas – 7, United Torah Judaism – 7, Kulanu – 10, Yesh Atid – 11, Arab List – 14, Meretz – 4, Labor/Hatnua – 24. Likud could ally with their 29 mandates and add Jewish Home, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Kulanu reaching a total of 67 total seats while avoiding including Yair Lapid and his Yesh Atid. Of course should the Labor/Hatnua take the remaining mandates and swing Kulanu and they also would have over 61 mandates which makes Kulanu, or technically Yair Lapid the deciders of the results of the election and whether or not Likud is able to put together their required mandates and form a government. Hopefully Netanyahu will use the wiles and strong turnout and support for his party to form his coalition. This process will be noted and hopefully will not cause concern but what will really matter are those few items the such as honestly putting the building freeze out of our misery and permit building and allow such building in all areas of commerce, industry and residential allowing for strong and attractive communities. Then there will be the initial pressures to restart the peace process in which Netanyahu will need to bring the argument and propaganda to rest and replace it with the facts, treaties and accords which define which lands belong to whom and under, that ever so mentioned and used to bludgeon Israel, International Law which should stand firmly beside Israel and all her claims to retain all of her lands, period!

 

After establishing these two initiatives Bibi can then address the social issues with solid economic steps which are reasoned and fully debated moving ahead with measured steps and firm reliance and faith in the practices established by previous similar situations which produced the desired results. In numerous instances what may be required is for the government to get out of the way and relegate some functions to religious institutions that are better suited for some functions such as free kitchens which feed those in need of such assistance. There will also be those functions which government is best suited to solve and should act. This should come naturally to Netanyahu as he proved in a previous government when he was assigned the Economy Minister. Such problems are usually traceable to a few requirements which make achieving a goal which would protect the poor and provide relief with minimal red tape. The same is true of many items burdening the Middle Class. As stated, Netanyahu will be facing the closest scrutiny from more than the usual entities as he received a strong mandate from people outside his party and beyond his base and these people have known grievances and demands and they will watch sitting on nervous expectations that had best be addressed with a sense of urgency. So, as said all too often after elections, we will wait and see with open minds and soaring hearts all kept within reason by good Jewish kidneys. (Oh yes, we had a whole article using the Biblical reference by King David to kidneys and their blessings and importance in so many ways, honest.)

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Long Night Births Hard Questions on Israeli Election Results

 

With virtually all the votes counted we have the preliminary picture but the lines are fuzzy and the results produce more questions than answers. Likud is leading the pact with 29 seats with the “Zionist Camp” of Labor and Hatnua following with 24 and the Joint Arab List has 14 seats, followed by Yesh Atid with 11, Kulanu with 10, Jewish Home has 8, the Haredi parties Shas and United Torah Judaism tied at 7, Yisrael Beytenu has 6 and Meretz closes out the list with 4 seats and unfortunately Yachad party will be left out. The raw numbers would indicate a huge win for Netanyahu and loss for the “Zionist Camp” falling well behind due to Likud exceeding its lower polling and Labor-Hatnua equaling expectations. A closer look reveals where the Likud came by its higher numbers and it appears that Likud gains came at the expense of largely Jewish Home and potentially prevented Yachad from making threshold. The other obvious change has been that instead of preventing the fragmentation and reducing the number of minor parties the raising of the threshold only served to drive the smaller leftist, anti-Zionist Communist and Post=Modernist parties into a single block under the name of Arab Block and given them two to three additional mandates making Zoabi and Tibi appear all the stronger. These raw results are meaningless until the different parties, unions and blocks make their desires and support clear to President Rivlin producing a clearer picture who should be given first shot at forming a coalition.

 

The raw data would make Likud out to be the victor and to the victor go the spoils, but what spoils? The name of the game is coalition making and hopefully doing so with in kind minds and supporters of your positions. This means that any seats gained by Likud at the expense of Jewish Home makes the resultant total possessed by the two presumed to be allied parties no different and all the Likud gains from Jewish Home losses as simply rearranging the chairs on either a cruise ship or the Titanic. The truth is that Netanyahu does not really want the religious, Zionist, nationalist allied parties to be the base of his support when forming his coalition. Netanyahu wants to have as much political leeway allowing him to go in whatever direction provides him with the easiest path in the new government. By Netanyahu weakening the standing of Jewish Home, when forming any coalition now would make Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid and Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu parties more important and carrying a greater influence than Jewish Home and making Naftali Bennett’s voice virtually powerless and squelched while Yair Lapid and Moshe Kahlon will be the roaring lions in the government and also place them ahead of Jewish Home in choosing the Ministerial position of power in the cabinet. This will give Netanyahu the leftward freedom to ignore the demands of the Religious Zionists as he desired. Netanyahu’s ploy of assailing Jewish Home voters laying any loss he might face to Hertzog and Livni at their feet just as he had done previously except this time he did so with no apparent loss in voter totals that he faced in 2013.

 

So now we wait and see who will be chosen to form a coalition first and then suffer through six weeks of excruciatingly boring power plays which we already see Jewish Home and the Zionist and nationalists being mostly sidelined while the personal aggrandizing Yesh Atid and Kulanu parties empowering Yair Lapid and Moshe Kahlon loudly impressing their demands and thus control over the most critical areas in the next government. Lapid may demand Treasury Minister for himself and two other high position Ministerial position for his main people with Kahlon likely to demand Foreign Minister or Defense Minister and two other major Ministerial positions for his list leaving Jewish Home with second pickings of the scraps for the supporting members and a middle level leftover for Naftali Bennett. The one certainty is that the governing coalition will not be the nationalist, Zionist government that Netanyahu once again ran on but will once again claim he is prevented from pursuing due to the lack of support from, you guessed it, a weakened and ineffectual Jewish Home. As long as the religious Zionists fall for the Netanyahu cry after running a weak campaign making the certainty of his returning to the Prime Ministership a definitive possibility from the polls and then turning to the supporters of Jewish Home and the other ardent Zionist parties to vote Likud to stave off the leftist challenge then Jewish Home will be forever the bridesmaid and never the bride. Eventually the leader, be it Bennett or be it his successor or beyond down the road, assuming there is a down the road, decides to challenge and present Jewish Home as the new leadership for Israel, Netanyahu will continue to utilize this ploy of siphoning off the votes of those more Zionist than Netanyahu desires to govern with and neutering those Zionist parties from where Netanyahu glides to victory with the stolen support, then the real Zionist political power will remain neutered and voiceless in the future Likud Party led governments. For now we must wait and see what develops but be warned that the expectations of the ardent Zionists have once again been sacrificed to the Bibi and thus lower expectations are their feed in the coming government. The other reality is that it appears that Netanyahu will require Yair Lapid and his treasonous backstabbing to permit a coalition to be cobbled together, so expect new elections again in two or so years when Lapid again sees a wounded Netanyahu for his actions such as the silent building freeze or whatever other sacrifices made presumably in response to a powerful United States President Obama in order to salvage continued friendship from the White House. Anybody else notice that it is only Israel who needs to obey and bow to the will of Obama? Can bowing to golden calves or worse be far behind?

 

Beyond the Cusp