How Dark Could Our Future Become; A Possible Alternative

 

There have been a number of prognostications telling the writers’ many separate and often distinct predictions. These predictions span from gloom and doom to the thrills once we combine with our technological inventions enhancing our lives in remarkable ways. Then there is the possibility we will face threats due to the singularity from advanced artificial intelligent robots which will have surpassed us and begin to leap so far ahead of our own technological knowledge and abilities that we will become either their pets or a nuisance to be eradicated depending on who you ask. There are predictions on the political level where China becomes the new eight-hundred pound gorilla on the stage and the United States falls into a weak second class state in the shadows or China falls economically and the United States rebounds to Africa becoming the new European style power and Europe degrades into economic ruin even dragging down the last of the economic engines in Europe. The one comfort I take from all these prognostications, even by some very well recognized editorialists and experts of which many will be unfulfilled, is that even if I get everything wrong, all I will have done is join an elite group who are secure enough to be wrong and admit it. The benefit of doing predictions is people will tend to forget those you got completely wrong if you hit a few dead on correct as people want to believe that the future is not as daunting and unpredictable as it actually is and take comfort in those predictions which give them comfort or support, what they had themselves been predicting. So, with the comfort that I will probably not be any more wrong than some who have become wealthy despite being wrong more often than not, here is what I actually fear may be coming down the road over the remaining two years of the final term of President Obama’s Presidency.

 

First we need to see where the world is now and try to find some similarities from history and narrow down those similarities until we find the closest match and then interpolate using that history and see where that leads one. The first and most obvious parallel is the beginning of the fall of Rome and the withdrawal from the world’s scene by the United States with their retreats from Iraq and Afghanistan. This is a false parallel which despite being false it has garnered a serious following. Further consideration leads one to look more at the entirety of the Western world and culture and an initial retreat from the Middle East followed by an infiltration and assault by the powers of Islam and one realizes that the correlation is closer to the slow and unalterable fall of the Eastern Roman Empire which was also known as the Byzantine Empire, of which the greatest defeat was the fall of Constantinople. Using this as a base we would need to try and discern if in this modern period where things can happen at unbelievable and unprecedented speed, the item one needs to do is find where the two main turns of history which eventually served to turn back the thrusts into Europe by the seemingly unstoppable forces of Islam which we can parallel with the Battle of Tours where Charles the Hammer Martel routed the Moorish Muslim troops ending their invasion into western Europe and turning them back depleted and without any reserve supplies which made the restoration of Spain possible, though the method of the Inquisition would be something we should endeavor to avoid at all cost, and the Siege of Vienna where the King of Poland reached an agreement with his closest neighboring nations for their promises to refrain from invading his lands while he took his entire army and marched to Vienna and relieved the siege turning back the Islamic armies and ending their thrust into eastern Europe. These two turning points are impossible to predict without the power of clairvoyance, something I freely admit I lack no matter what some people have claimed in my stead.

 

Islam is unlikely to be attempting any invasions of Europe in the near future as much of the Muslim world is too wrapped-up in their own troubles and conflicts within Islam to be taking on any outside wars. Syria has been wrapped in a destructive civil war with numerous outside forces warring on both sides of this devastating conflict which will leave Syria incapable of any kind of action for decades as they eventually will try to rebuild almost from scratch and build a new Syria. Who will be leading the nation of Syria is still unknown though it does appear that somehow Bashir al-Assad will remain in power though only in charge of a shell of his nation will have survived and most of the Syrian people will have fled the nation and as many as are able will probably choose not to return. Libya has continue its spiral decent into internecine violence composed largely by inter-tribal violence with occasional challenges to the relatively weak central government which has thus far been able to hold on to power. Iraq and Syria are currently sharing a serious threat in the form of an ever-growing force which began as a terrorist entity in the Syrian civil war and has mutated into a wannabe caliphate which has since grown into a formidable force across central parts of Syria and Iraq and has made threats against Iran, Jordan, Israel, Saudi Arabia and other nations which ISIS (still pronounced ‘is is’) believes are not following the Quran and are not ruled by proper Islamic rulers which they swear they will replace as they build the next Caliphate. They also predict that once they have set the world of Islam on the correct path and united all of Islam into their Caliphate they will then complete the task of making Islam the sole religion in the world. Egypt is recovering from their experiment with the rule by the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood and has returned to having elected a military leader as the President of Egypt. It remains to be seen whether President Sisi will remain a limited leader eventually stepping aside or if he will become the next military dictator of Egypt following the same route as his predecessors. Lebanon has been sitting on the sidelines of the Syrian conflict but has an investment in the Syrian war as Hezballah has, on the orders from their Iranian masters, been involved heavily in the fighting in support of Bashir al-Assad which has left Lebanon vulnerable, a vulnerability which may soon prove to be tested by some of the forces fighting against Assad in Syria as they view Lebanon as a fair target due to Hezballah fighting in Syria. Across most of the rest of the Muslim world there are no real nations which have the inclination or power to pose any real threat outside their own borders with a few exceptions. One exception is Pakistan which has a sizeable nuclear weapons stockpile but also has sufficient internal threats which prevent any adventurism and also Pakistan has one main adversary in India and is content to keep any violence between the two nuclear powered nations as quiet as is possible, a view shared by India. So, what might be the exception throughout the Islamic world?

 

Turkey and Iran are exceptions as both have avoided the kind of turmoil which has afflicted much of the rest of the Middle East and North Africa. Turkey under the rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has a modern military and enjoys membership in NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) which they served as an important role against the Soviet Union as Turkey controlled the access from the Black Sea into the Mediterranean Sea and from there into the Suez Canal to the Red Sea and on to the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf or through the Strait of Gibraltar on into the Atlantic Ocean. Turkish roles within NATO had been challenging in recent years as they refused to cooperate with the United States in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and more recently worked against the United States in their efforts against ISIS only recently begrudgingly permitting any use of Turkish resources such as airfields for strikes against ISIS and probably under guarantees that these actions would also serve to remove their nemesis Syrian Dictator Bashir al-Assad. As President Obama has formed a close relationship with President Erdogan, the difficulties which logistically separated the two nations were all the more confusing. Even more confusing was that these difficulties caused little damage to the relations between the two leaders. That leaves Iran which has been playing a cat and mouse game with the P5+1 nations (United States, Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany) in their ongoing and currently extended nuclear negotiations. These negotiations may soon be proven useless and no longer necessary and that has much to do with the potential future of our world.

 

The next items we face are China and Russia. China has hit upon some economic difficulties and is not expected to continue their high rate of financial growth for the ensuing years. A nation even with the governmental assistance given in China can continue to have a growth rate of over seven percent GDP growth forever as each year that level becomes that much more difficult to produce. The main item on China’s wish list is cheaper oil prices and a source of easily refined crude oil. China has a steady source at a decent price in Iraq but that oil is thicker and considered quite difficult to refine and does not have a high production quality. On the other hand, the sweet crude oil available from Saudi Arabia is more expensive. Meanwhile, Russia is completely dependent on their oil and gas sales to prop up their collapsing economy and nation. Russia is suffering from one of the highest rates of population decrease with projections placing their population numbers to be half of their current numbers by mid-century which is astonishing. Russia is thus dependent upon high oil prices, exactly the opposite from China. This is where the interesting predictions begin. The challenge is to find a solution to the problems of the three nations, China, Russia and Iran, which is possible and credible. While it may appear impossible to satisfy both the Chinese requirement for cheap oil and the Russian desire for high oil prices, but that is not entirely true. In order to satisfy both the Russian and Chinese demands one would need to control vast percentages of the supplies of crude oil. Enter the Iranians into the equation. Add the possibility that there has been a mutually beneficial arrangement since the beginning of the nuclear negotiations which have China and Russia on one side with Iran presumably as their adversary while China and Russia were part of the five nations presumably pushing Iran to give up most of their uranium enrichment program. Iran is suspected of having designs on the oil fields of their neighbors, especially those of Saudi Arabia, UAE (United Arab Emirates), Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Iran has all but become the ruling party in Iraq and has access if required of the southern Iraqi oil fields while ISIS has control of some of the northern oil fields from Iraq. The possible scenario would have Iran launch a full scale operation assaulting ISIS once they attack Bagdad under the claim that they were responding to a desperate plea for assistance from the Iraqi government. Then the Iranian military could transport an extremely large military force with full armor and other support towards Bagdad. Then, as their forces have closed and routed ISIS forcing their retreat, then Iran, under air cover, could swing their entirety of forces and reinforcements southward coinciding with a general uprising throughout the Northwestern provinces of Saudi Arabia by the predominantly Shiite population with assistance and weaponry provided by the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) with Russia and China both demanding the United States stand down. This attack would need to be launched before President Obama leaves office and the possibility that the next President of the United States might be more willing to come to the aid of their stricken ally. With Iran in control of the vast reserves of the oil wealth could then embargo the Western nations or simply the European nations allowing for Russia to be able to set their own price for oil and gas supporting their otherwise weak economy. Further, China could be provided with all the high grade cheap oil they could desire and Iran would be well on their way to establishing their hegemony over the Middle East and be close to ready for their assault to include the Muslim nations of North Africa into their control before then turning their attentions onto Europe and Israel. This is the potential nightmare which has a chance, hopefully smaller than it may seem in our nightmares, it is thoughts such as these which make me simply joyous when time passes and I am proven wrong, may that streak continue as every time I get one right I then spend weeks to years covering some relative disaster.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

United States Abdicates Responsibility to Act on Syrian Chemical Weapons

Despite the intense coverage given to United States President Barack Obama making a speech where he insisted that the United States considered Syrian President Bashir Assad’s military stores of chemical weapons to be a serious threat and was being treated as a paramount subject being taken seriously by the United States, follow up after the speech has left doubts. The President stressed that the United States military was monitoring the Syrian WMDs and would act should Bashir Assad use these illegal weapons in his desperation in the Syrian civil war and that such use would be crossing a red line which President Obama stated its crossing would force a strong response from the United States. The President’s comments were made subsequent to and in addition to United States Defense Secretary Leon Panetta who was quoted responding to the eventuality of Assad’s government being toppled leaving the chemical weapons stores unsecured, “I think the greater concern right now is what steps does the international community take to make sure that when Assad comes down, that there is a process and procedure to make sure we get our hands on securing those sites. That, I think, is the greater challenge right now.” When pressed to clarify if Secretary Panetta responded, “We’re not talking about ground troops. You always have to keep the possibility that, if there is a peaceful transition and international organizations get involved, that they might ask for assistance in that situation. But in a hostile situation, we’re not planning for that.” Panetta insistence that any future U.S. military role in Syria would only come about if a new government asked for assistance hinted at the disconnect between the stated stress over the serious threat posed by the existing chemical weapons and the lack of commitment by the President Obama and his Administration to taking any responsibility for securing these dangerous WMDs except by voluntary invitation, a highly unlikely scenario.

Further comments from President Obama and Secretary Panetta have noted the extreme difficulty in being able to detect whether chemical weapons have been employed and that in order to assure such use would require intense monitoring which is beyond the level that the President is comfortable with allocating. The main concept coming from President Obama appears to be more aligned with finding reasons why the United States cannot be found culpable in any failure to prevent Syrian Dictator Assad from using his stores of chemical weapons. In a further step in that direction, the United States has quietly behind the scenes tasked Turkey and Jordan with the responsibility of determining whether or not Bashir Assad uses his chemical weapons and should the need arise tasking them with stepping in to take responsibility for securing the chemical weapons. Considering that the Syrian arsenal of chemical weapons stores is estimated to be between three-hundred and four-hundred metric tons, it would take more resources than Turkey and Jordan have readily available even if combined. Only the United States, Russia, China, and possibly a few more States would easily be able to assemble the necessary equipment, troops, trained personnel in ABC weapons handling, transport assets, secure storage and the other miscellaneous abilities necessitated to secure and relocate the Syrian stores for subsequent disposal. It is simply irresponsible for the United States to sidestep any responsibility for the securing of these extremely dangerous weapons which if mishandled could cause massive casualties and untold misery destroying all life over a wide area should an accident occur. This is the critical point where President Obama’s position of leading from behind and refusing to ever be up front taking responsibility for any situation no matter how serious the potential for disaster which the United States taking the lead could avoid. This is the result of a world that apparently will be without any assist or influence from the United States going forward. This will show us exactly what a world would be if run by the United Nations.

The initial sign that Bashir Assad may have begun to utilize some of his lesser level chemical weapons has already been detected. The initial theory is that the chemical weapon utilized by President Assad loyalists was a chemical weapon called Agent 15, known also by its NATO code BZ. From what research we have been able to determine that Agent 15 is at the lesser end of the chemical weapons capabilities with the capabilities slightly stronger than CX, a strong form of tear gas. When questions were asked as to the potency of Agent 15, doctors who had treated the affected people attributed five deaths to the use of Agent 15 which makes it far more lethal than tear gas which is a nonfatal class of chemical dispersant utilized for crowd control. Still, despite the reported deaths, the United States has made no comment and despite a leaked communique from the United States Consul General in Istanbul, Scott Frederic Kilner, to State Department in Washington which outlined the results of the consulate investigation into reports from inside Syria indicating chemical weapons had been used in Homs on Dec. 23, 2012. After such a refusal to act or even demand Assad cease use of chemical weapons will be seen by Assad and his military commanders as tacit approval to go forward and use even stronger chemical weapons escalating until he gets a reaction. Should this trend be tested and continue with United States President Obama’s tendency to vacillate and equivocate taking painfully long to reach even the most obvious of decisions, the world had best take the lead and not depend on the United States to act or expect Assad to fully implement the use of his chemical weapons stores as soon as he feels that it is use them or lose everything. The results from Assad taking such desperate measures will rest on all who could have acted without facing impossible retributions and have prevented the thousands of deaths which will result. The worst case scenario would be if the sole country which chose to act to prevent Assad from committing a near genocide against the Syrian people was Israel as should it fall to Israel to stop Assad would very probably initiate an immeasurable conflagration as numerous Arab and Muslim countries would react with the intent of punishing Israel for her aggression against another Arab Muslim ruler. Does anyone think it would be otherwise?

Beyond the Cusp

Just Another Mass Murder of Innocents in Syria

The forces loyal to Assad utilized an airstrike to slaughter people who were simply lining up at a bakery to purchase bread and pastries. The toll has already reached close to one-hundred with expectations that the final count of dead might exceed two-hundred. The result was bodies stacked and slung all over the entire block of the street in front of the bakery with dead and wounded lying together as others searched to find the living and separate them from the dead. The scene is captured in this <a href=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIfdO7yzKeM&feature=player_embedded target=blank>explicitly graphic video</a> showing a scene of trauma expectant in the aftermath of such a horrific and senseless slaughter of innocent noncombatants. This attack comes on top of the revelation that Assad’s forces have begun to use scud missiles against rebel forces and civilians with no discrimination between the innocent civilians and those who have taken up arms against his rule. This has to lead one to believe that Assad is but a decision away from the use of his chemical weapons on these scud missiles and the horrors and havoc such will render on the remaining Syrian population in addition to the rebel forces. Meanwhile, the world leaders decry these attacks and invest great numbers of words and promises that they are monitoring the situation in Syria and will take serious and decided action should Assad introduce chemical weapons to the conflict. Judging by the lack of serious response to the over 40,000 civilian deaths estimated to have resulted from the civil war thus far, one has to wonder if such threats are empty bluster more than resolutions to take the actions threatened.

On the other side of the coin, news continues to enforce the existence of two distinct and separate groups which comprise the rebel forces. One group is a cobbled union of secularists, disparate minority groups, and Muslims who wish to establish some form of democratic governance with universal rights while the other group consists of Islamists belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda, Salafists, and other Sunnis who favor establishing a Sharia State. Many fear that once Assad is taken down from power the fighting will simply turn with these separate rebel groups beginning yet a second civil war for the future of Syria. The parallels between the situation in Syria and the history of the French Revolution is frightening and if the conflict in Syria should come to a similar end, the future for Syria is bleak and dark at best. This bifurcation of the rebel forces has also made supporting the rebels a more difficult proposition fraught with possible mistakes and weapons and aid falling into the hands of terrorists instead of the intended secular forces. Much has been speculated as to how much of the weapons and aid has already fallen into presumably unintended hands and this has clouded the plans to send further such assistance. This is definitely not an instance where one can simply make decisions using the old system of the enemy of my enemy is my friend as some of those who are enemies of Assad are also enemies of the West and a threat to the Western way of life. Decisions, decisions, all I can say is I am glad these are not decisions that will rest on my shoulders.

Then there is the last threat, the stores of chemical weapons. There are serious concerns as to into whose hands these deadly weapons of mass destruction will end up falling. There are many who claim that there are some who we can trust to receive these stores and some we must avoid allowing to come into possession of Assad’s vast stores of chemical weapons. My vote is that there is nobody who we should allow to come into possession of these weapons and possess such a threat. Assuming that the forces of the world continue with their hand-wringing and making bold statements while taking no actions, then these diabolical weapons are going to fall into somebody’s hands and the only safe solution would be to make sure that at the end of the fighting these weapons are destroyed and not left for anybody to possess, or even worse, to use. That is the one action which needs to be planned for and executed preferably with great stealth and assurances that all of these chemical weapons are destroyed. These weapons should not be allowed to continue to exist even if it is in the hands of a Western country, the Russians, the Israelis, or anybody else. The destruction of these chemical weapons stores has to be the one result of this conflict that must be made a primary goal. Any other path would be pure folly and could only end, sooner or later, in catastrophe.

Beyond the Cusp