Beyond the Cusp

October 8, 2014

The ISIS Cancer is Metastasizing Throughout MENA Within Planet Earth

Filed under: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,Air Support,Al Nusra Front,al-Qaeda,Algeria,Amalekites,Anti Missile System,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Armed Services,Ayman al-Zawahiri,Blood Libel,Boko Haram,Breakout Point,Britain,Calaphate,Civilization,Clan,Commander in Cheif,Dhimmi,Europe,European Governments,Forced Solution,France,Hamas,Hate,History,Hostages,IDF,Inteligence Report,International Politics,Iran,Iron Dome,ISIS,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jabhat al Nusra,Jerusalem,Jewish Home,Jews,Jihad,Kidnap Children,Kidnap Soldier,Kurdish Militias,Kurds,Libya,Meaning of Peace,Mediterranean Sea,Military Aid,Military Option,Missile Research,Muammar Gaddafi,Murder Americans,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Nigeria,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Research,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons Test,Oppression,Osama Bin Laden,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Peace Process,Peshmerga Militias,Plutonium Production,Politics,President Obama,Promised Land,Quran,Rebel Forces,Refugees,Scientific Research,Security,Sharia,Sharia Law,Shiite,Submission,Sunni,Syria,Taqiyya,Tel Aviv,Terror,Theocracy,Threat of War,Tribe,Tunisia,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,War Threat,Warhead Development,WMD,World Government,World Opinion,World Pressures,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:13 AM
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News reports have attested to the fact that throughout the areas referred to as MENA (Middle East North Africa), the former al-Qaeda groups which had originally pledged their support to Osama bin Laden, which they later transferred them to Ayman al-Zawahiri as al-Qaeda leadership changed with bin Laden’s death, are changing their allegiances one-by-one to ISIS (aka ISIL, IS, Caliphate, but we prefer ISIS and pronounce it {iziz}) and to the self-anointed Caliph, Abu al-Baghdadi, perceiving him as the current strong horse. The latest which occurred this past week were in Nigeria, Libya and on the Libya Tunisia mountainous border area.

The Ansar al-Sharia terror group punctuated their changing their loyalties to ISIS with a parade of vehicles through Darna, Libya. Ansar al-Sharia also has a grip on Benghazi and has been attempting to consolidate and draft more members and then they might see themselves taking the fight to Tripoli and claim the right to lead the nation and attempt to solidify such position by seeking to have as many other terrorist groups, clans and tribal fighters to join with them rather than continue the hopeless fighting which has been tearing Libya apart since Gadhafi was deposed and assassinated.

Boko Haram in Nigeria mostly with some reach into neighboring countries on occasion has declared themselves aligned with Caliph Abu al-Baghdadi and ISIS as well as declaring the areas under their control is an independent nation declaring their independence from the Nigerian government. Their claim is being ignored by the Western powers much as the original ISIS was as it declared itself a state while spreading rapidly across northern and central Iraq meeting its only initial serious opposition when they attempted to move on the Kurdish regions where the Peshmerga Militias put up stiff resistance and even managed to retake areas with presumably air support provided by the United States and those allied with them against ISIS.

The Uqba ben Nafi Brigades have sporadically ambushed Tunisian motorized patrols destroying the vehicles and often most of the soldiers within before melting back into the mountainous impassable region on the Tunisian border with Libya. They have recently claimed to be supporters of ISIS changing from original allegiance with al-Qaeda. Where the Uqba ben Nafi Brigade are not particularly large threat as supremacist and radical Islamic terrorists, the current poor economic state of the Tunisian economy and the fragility of the government which is made up of opposing groups from pure secularists to ardent religious Muslims on to even fanatical Islamist parties presents a particularly susceptible situation for overthrow by any concerted effort by any sizeable terrorist group seeking a nation from which to operate. This means that if ISIS were to decide that the Uqba ben Nafi Brigades were a worthy addition providing a realistic and strong potential that with a relatively small investment of forces could claim all of Tunisia adding it to the areas they claim as part of their Caliphate.

Philippine Islamist militant group Abu Sayyaf has threatened Germany by claiming they plan on beheading one of their two German hostages unless Germany pays a large ransom of two-hundred-fifty million pesos ($5.6 million) and pulls their support for the United States efforts against ISIS in Iraq and Syria to gain the release of both hostages. Communicating in their native Tagalog language they gave a fifteen day deadline. I guess the fact that they only support ISIS and are not declaring their allegiance to ISIS as they have spread enough already and will likely continue their spread across MENA nations.

In Algeria a group claiming alliances with ISIS has threatened to behead a French hostage as they singled out, “the spiteful and filthy French” for severe and serious punishments. They released a video which shows armed men claiming allegiance to Jund al-Khilafa (Soldiers of the Caliphate), an Islamist militant group in Algeria. They pledge allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

There is another ISIS affiliate which has reared its head during the recent Israel conflict with Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. One of the many supporting terrorist entities which stood out was the claim that an ISIS deployed group was supporting the Hamas and Islamic Jihad efforts providing training, expertise and fighters as well as munitions. There was no overt proof beyond their announcements but how would anyone see any difference between a rocket from Hamas from a rocket fired by Islamic Jihad or determine which three rockets were the ones Fatah fighters claimed to fire and finally how would an ISIS launched rocket? Even if ISIS had more accurate rockets and did fire them, with the accuracy and efficiency of Iron Dome backed by the hand of G0d as was witnessed near Tel Aviv, even if ISIS had papered their entire rocket with their logo, how would one know or even ever see it before the Iron Dome destroyed it mid-flight. And for the instance where the Iron Dome proved inaccurate so that the IDF soldiers manning the anti-missile battery would witness the Hand of G0d direct the rocket seconds away from striking central Tel Aviv harmlessly shoved out into the empty Mediterranean Sea, the story is towards the end of the article titled How to Fight Terrorist Fanatics Unless You’re Israel with the quotes in bolded italics; please read of this absolute miracle and thank you. I still get a chill reading about the diverting of a rocket on a path to kill hundreds if not thousands depending on where it struck being blown out to sea by a strong wind which was local to overhead of the Iron Dome which had become suddenly inaccurate and unable to hit its target.

The final locations in which one might find small groups aligned with ISIS are across Europe and North America with a slightly higher concentration in Europe followed by the United States. These would be a loosely coordinated rings where no one person would know all of the others in country. This is the usual manner in which infiltrations and subversive groups which will eventually be activated to carry out terror attacks, sabotage and other subversions but otherwise will attempt to blend into the society and not draw attention to themselves. These loosely organized rings may prove the most destructive elements of ISIS by the time all is said and done. The Western nations had best hope that ISIS can be contained sufficiently until strong and determined leadership takes the seats of power in Washington DC, particularly at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Until then the problem the world will face is IS.

Beyond the Cusp

June 18, 2014

The Terror Plagued Planet Earth

Filed under: Act of War,Administration,Afghanistan,Africa,al-Qaeda,Allah,Amalekites,Apocalypse,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab Spring,Arab Winter,Arab World,Asia,Ayman al-Zawahiri,Balkans,Bashir al-Assad,Belgium,Blood Libel,Boko Haram,Boston,Burgas,Children Crippled,Children Murdered,China,Christians,Civil War,Civilization,Clan,Conflict Avoidnce,Domestic NGOs,Egypt,Europe,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Fatah,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Gaza,GCC,Government,Gulf Co-operation Council,Hamas,Hate,Hezballah,History,Hostages,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Intifada,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,ISIS,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jewish,Jewish State,Jihad,Judea,Judean Hills,Judeo-Christian,Kidnap Children,Kidnapped Israeli,Koran,Kurdistan,Kurds,Mubarak,Muslim,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Nigeria,Pakistan,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Pressures,PFLP,Philippines,PLO,Pogroms,Politics,President Morsi,Pressure by Egyptian People,Protect Citizenry,Religion,Response to Terrorism,Rocket Attacks,Russia,Russian Pressure,Samaria,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secularist,Security,Sharia,Shiite,Shiite,Somalia,Statehood,Sudan,Sunni,Sunni,Syria,Taliban,Taqiyya,Terror,Third Intifada,Three No's,Tribe,Tunisia,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,War,World Opinion,World Pressures,Yemen,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:02 AM
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Recent news has displayed a planet gone mad with terrorist threats spanning wide areas and multiple continents with varying levels of violence and horrors. Across Europe there have been attacks on Jewish targets including assaults on a Jewish school where three young children and the Rabbi father of two of the children in Toulouse, France; a bombing assault upon a tour bus outside the airport in Burgas, Bulgaria; an attack on a Jewish Museum in Brussels, Belgium; and during the revolutionary period of unrest in the Ukraine there were numerous reports of attacks on Jews and Jewish targets such as synagogues. While these attacks were the most news worthy, there has also been a steadily increasing amount of both reported and unreported anti-Semitic attitudes and resulting actions many of which have not risen to the point of being reported other than be polls and studies which have reported these general increases across Europe and the entire globe. On another front in Europe have been the reports of governmental concerns over the increasing numbers of youths who have answered the call to arms in Syria and the serious repercussions which their return may present to these nations and their public order. But Europe is far from alone in feeling the repercussions of terrorism which are spreading across every continent.


Africa has been the place of many serious terrorist developments, most of which have not received much in depth or even mention in Western news programs. There are daily clashes in Somalia as the numerous militaristic leaders test their neighbors and defend their areas and keep their own kind of vigilante justice. There was the vicious military style attack in Nairobi, Kenya where shoppers were quizzed on Muslim prayers and Quran quotations murdering those who failed their tests. The violence between northern and southern Sudan continues despite the attempts to separate the two areas by recognizing that southern Sudan as its own separate nation. There has also been the terror across Nigeria committed by Boko Haram which recently broke into the news cycle with the abduction of over two hundred girls from a school. This large kidnapping of the school girls was simply one of a string of such crimes of varying lesser abductions. These abductions by Boko Haram are part of another source of terrorism which is the source of much of the problems in Africa, namely the struggle between Christianity and Islam for preeminence with the greatest areas of violence being in regions which are being contested between the two religions.


The strongest area of terrorism and Islamic violence is obviously in the Middle East, North Africa and the Asian areas neighboring the Middle East. The current news has covered the onslaught by the terrorist group ISIS, which was rejected and expelled from membership by al-Qaeda over their overt and extreme violence, has assaulted all of the nation of Iraq which is outside the control of the Kurdish northern enclave currently closing in on the capital city of Baghdad. The onslaught by ISIS which had been fighting largely in Syria turned their attentions and struck into Iraq. Some have claimed the reasons that ISIS has attacked Iraq are due to the transference of supplies, fighters and other support for the forces defending Bashir al-Assad in Syria across Iraq from Iran with the cooperation of the Iraqi government. There has been a steady and destructive level of terrorism resultant from the Arab Spring which has actually resulted in a trail of violent events which have turned this wave of change into something more resembling an Arab Winter as we anticipated when the initial flare-up struck in Tunisia and spread to Egypt. This has resulted in spawning extreme cases of violence not only in Tunisia but also in Egypt as governments were overturned in successive years with Mubarak being deposed followed by his replacement backed by the Muslim Brotherhood being ousted by a military coup one year after being elected. Egypt has suffered far less violence than has Libya which has a weak government which replaced ousted dictator Gadhafi. There has also been a steady level of violence in Yemen with much of the violence a result of al-Qaeda fighters against the government. There is the violence against the government supported by the United States and their allies by the Taliban both within Afghanistan and also out of the tribal areas of Pakistan.


In the Far East of Asia there are areas of violent terrorism with the most prevalent areas are the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Also originating in Pakistan was the horrific attack which lasted three days on the neighboring nation of India’s city of Mumbai. Then there has been terrorist violence from Chechnya and Russia and terrorist against China originating in the northwestern province of Xinjiang, both of which go mostly unreported. Across the Americas the frequency of terrorist attacks are less reported, or should we say less identified. To this day the government of Argentina is still attempting to find and arrest the perpetrators of the two assaults on Buenos Aires where within a couple of years the Israeli Embassy was bombed on March 17, 1992, where twenty-nine were murdered and another two-hundred-fifty were injured; and the bombing of the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) Jewish Community Center on July 18, 1994, in which eighty-seven people were killed and over a hundred people were injured. Both terror attacks are still being investigated with strong evidence that the bombing of the AIMA Center was committed by high level persons coordinating the efforts from out of Iran. There is also a terrorist stronghold located in a town in an area referred to as the Tri Border Area where Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay borders meet. It is reported that this area is a hub for activities of organized crime groups, terrorist groups, and narcotics traffickers who operate beyond the reach or interventions by law enforcement officers. The largest city controlled by these lawless forces is Ciudad del Este. There are reports that Mexico has become another place which has areas in which terrorists are harbored by drug cartels and that these groups share capabilities, training, resources, smuggling routes into the United States and terror tactics designed to minimize opposition by the utilization of terrorist acts and other means of intimidation.


Still, the nation which has suffered the most from terrorist violence has been Israel. Even if one counted all of the terrorist strikes within the United States which were attributed to other reasons, still Israel has a more frequent and violent record. This does not mean that there have been no terrorist attacks which were either initially or still had not been identified as terrorism such as the Trolley Square Mall shooting from February 12, 2007, where five innocents were murdered by Sulejman Talović and was initially not classified as a case of terrorism despite reports that the shooter continued to shout, “Allahu Akbar” as he continued to shoot people. Then there was the attack which, while not actually being the first modern age terrorist strike, were the first universally accepted and heavily witnessed terrorist attacks on the multiple targets on September 11, 2001. This one assault with multiple targets including both towers of the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and an unknown target likely in the nation’s capital of Washington DC but was forced down by a passenger assault on the cockpit crashing the plane in southwestern Pennsylvania. Another reported terrorist attack was the Boston Marathon bombing of April 15, 2013, which murdered three and caused various injuries to at least two-hundred-sixty-four innocent victims whose only act was to remain at the finish line awaiting friends or family to finish the race. There was the assault by Nidal Malik Hasan on November 5, 2009, at the Soldier Readiness Center of Fort Hood in Texas shooting murdering thirteen people and wounding twenty-nine other innocents while also shouting, “Allahu Akbar!” Despite all evidence this terrorist crime was and still is referred to as a case of workplace violence and there is no official mention of terrorism. One of, if not, the earliest terrorist attack in modern era America was the assassination of Robert Kennedy on June 5, 1968, in Los Angeles, California by Sirhan Sirhan, who was born in Jerusalem who during questioning revealed his motivations stating, “My only connection with Robert Kennedy was his sole support of Israel and his deliberate attempt to send those fifty bombers to Israel to obviously do harm to the Palestinians.”


Israel has been the target of terrorist activities even back before the Jewish State was even in existence. One of the major such terrorist attacks was the Hevron rioting on August 29, 1929, where sixty-seven Jews and nine Arabs were killed. Among the deceased were twelve women and three children under the age of five. After the terrorist rioting was finally subdued by British soldiers, the British forcefully removed all the Jewish residents of Hevron as a move to prevent further violence. There has been near constant terrorist attacks from the very day on which the nation’s independence was announced and made formal to the current time. The most recent and still continuing terrorist act is the kidnapping of three innocent teens. The three teens’ names are Eyal Yifrach, Gilad Shaar, and Naftali Frenkel. Between these pair of attacks there have been nearly countless attacks so many that even some news media within Israel have pretty much stopped covering many of the terror attacks which through repetition have become less than news worthy. This includes the thousands of rockets, missiles, mortars and anti-tank rounds that have been fired into Israel with designs of murdering innocent civilians. The abduction of these three youths has infuriated much of the nation and nearly all Israelis have joined in prayers for the safe return of these poor victims who were innocent despite what some have claimed. Both CNN and BBC when reporting the abductions actually placed the word “kidnapping” within quotes. The subject has received even less coverage from many Western news sources mainly because they all made guidelines ages ago. Most people around the globe have seldom heard coverage, not to mention in depth analysis, into the rockets which often rain down onto southern Israel from Hamas controlled Gaza. The question currently heard in Israeli society is centered on the kidnapping and what should the response be if their worst fears are true. Many people are holding to hope which becomes more and more difficult as each day passes with no demand or claim of responsibility for this heinous event. Hope is the main emotion but what will that hope give way towards if we find the three missing youths bodies? What is the appropriate response to a people who would revel in the abducting of three teenage boys and further, what to do should they continue the dancing while handing out candies and sweet cakes to those who pass by? That question is an important one which will be impossible to determine, or even to have polled as many have not permitted their emotions to go far enough to reach any conclusion. All that is being pursued by much of Israeli society consists of prayers and attempted mutual comforting, all in the hope that their prayers will suffice. The question over what actions should be taken should the perpetrators of this horrid act be caught is currently a place nobody desires to go. Going into that area is beyond anyone’s desires; all they wish is for the safety of the abducted youth.


Beyond the Cusp


June 18, 2013

United States Picks Between Wrong Sides in Syria

President Obama’s Administration reached a decision to, in theory, begin to send small arms directly. This is being sold as the United States will begin to send arms to the rebels in Syria. This implies that the United States was not arming the rebels before this decision. If only they were that discerning in their decision making. What this is actually announcing is that with Turkey now falling into chaos with riots in every major city across the nation, the United States has lost their go between which had allowed them to funnel arms to the Syrian rebels, mostly originating out of Libya, through Turkey while being able to pretend in the domestic news to appear to not being at all involved in the Syrian Civil War. The question the American public needs to decide is has their country chosen the right side to support. The obvious answer is they have not but the reality is that there was no correct side to choose. All that is being chosen in Syria is which terror groups will lead the Islamic world for the immediate future in any future engagements with the rest of the world. Perhaps some inspection and tracing the history behind this decision will make things more understandable.


Perhaps the first item would be to attempt to discern who gets the credit or blame for deciding to support the rebels in Syria. The first item we need to state is that, like or hate the choice, President Obama really did not have much of a choice in which side to support. He chose whether or not to support a side in the Syrian Civil War, but the side was chosen all the way back in 1953 and possibly even earlier. It was that year the United States backed Mohammad-Reza Shah Pahlavi in the 28 Mordad coup, date of the coup in the Persian calendar, with Operation Boot under the title of the TPAJAX Project during the end of the Truman Presidency, replacing the democratically elected government in Iran which was proposing to ally with the Soviet Union. Needless to point out that this alignment and access to the oil fields were the driving motivations for the United States and no altruistic reasons were present. This was purely a case of we will put our man in for the oil and to spite our adversary, the Soviet Union. Perhaps it was attempting to make amends for the previous devious actions that inspired President Carter to back the revolt which brought the Ayatollah Ali Khomeini to power establishing an Islamic religious regime which remains in power today under the second Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The miscalculation by President Carter was quickly made evident as the new leadership in Iran chose to ally with the Soviet Union soon after coming to power. Perhaps there was just a bit of schadenfreude felt by the Iranians and Soviets from these turns of events. This resulted in the current alignment with Russia aligned with the Shiites and Iran and the United States aligned with the Sunnis and Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Hopefully that is sufficient historical reference.


The current excuse for a Civil War in Syria has in all actuality become a power struggle for preeminence of the Muslim world between its two main groups, the Sunnis and the Shiites. The Alawite Ruler of Syria, President Bashir al-Assad, is backed predominantly by Iran which has provided him with troops from the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) and Hezbollah terrorist troops from Lebanon, another satellite of the Iranians. These are the Shiite Islamic forces in Syria. The rebels originally consisted of one side representing secular interest and the other representing Islamist interests. The secular rebel forces have basically been all but removed from the conflict and have virtually no hope of prevailing in the conflict. That leaves the Islamist forces which consist of two camps, those with the Jabhat al-Nusra Front which has declared their alliance with Ayman al-Zawahiri and al-Qaeda and those supported by the Muslim Brotherhood. The challenge in this is to find which side consists of the good sides, or at least the less bad side. President Bashir al-Assad has utilized intimidation, torture, rape, and other equally abhorrent instruments of oppression to retain his hold on power and his two supporting groups are equally renowned for cruelty and ends justify the means reasoning. This does not necessarily make the rebels any more benign. There is not much that needs to be said about al-Qaeda beyond World Trade Center terror strike and the horrors of a fateful day in September 2001 and their compatriots in the conflict, the Muslim Brotherhood, are not the choir boys who have, according to Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, “…an umbrella term for a variety of movements, in the case of Egypt, a very heterogeneous group, largely secular, which has eschewed violence and has decried Al Qaeda as a perversion of Islam.” In truth they are exactly the opposite but somehow possibly still preferable to al-Qaeda as long as one ignores such aligned subgroups such as Hamas. So, this pretty much defines the adversaries from which President Obama has now presumably chosen one side to support. Perhaps he simply chose the side which was not supported by the Russians, but one might hope that such a decision was made with deeper concerns that just that.


So, President Obama has chosen to back the al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood in their attempt to be the preeminent guiding force in Islam while the Russians are supporting the Iranian sponsored terrorist out of Lebanon, oppressive dictator of Syria and the terror specialists out of Iran, the IRGC. The problem is deciding which side is populated with people who deserve the support of the nation which claims to be the bastion of freedom and human rights in the world. Truthfully, the reasoning behind President Obama backing the rebels is more realistically stated as backing Saudi Arabian and Egyptian interests and opposing Iranian interests, not to mention opposing Russian attempts to rise to power over the Middle East. As mentioned before, the sides were chosen far before the Civil War broke out in Syria and goes back to two fateful choices in Iran, the 1953 coup that brought the Shah to power to prevent Soviet Union preeminence in Iran and the 1979 coup that placed the Ayatollahs into power who then chose to join the Soviet Union block of nations despite the attempts by President Carter to make amends for the perfidy under the administration of President Truman. Now all that remain is to have one side prove out victorious and gain, for the moment, the leadership of the Muslim world. Will it be the Shiites with their Russian allies or the Sunni with their American allies? Why does it matter? That is the problematic part of the equation. Which side of this conflict would present the higher likelihood to bring peace to the Middle East? The Sunni Muslim Brotherhood has benefitted greatly from the Arab Winter which was initially represented as the rise of democracy in the Arab and Muslim world but really has simply changed the prearranged winners in every election from some nationalist dictator to some Islamist dictatorial party such as the Peace and Justice Party in Egypt which is nothing more than the Muslim Brotherhood political influence. The Sunni Muslim Brotherhood has risen to power across Northern Africa in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya all with backing and praise from the United States. Those changes in leadership were of no consequence to the power structures as the dictators were Sunnis as are the Islamists who have replaced them. Syria is the first place where the Sunni and Shiite both have a serious shot at controlling Syria. Syria is vitally important to Iran as it represents a critical nation in the Shiite Crescent which currently exists starting in Iran and the Persian Gulf and proceeding through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to the Mediterranean Sea. Saudi Arabia has the most interest in neutering of Iran and breaking their control through the heart of the Middle East would be an impressive first step. If, on the other hand, the Shiites prevail and retain their control over Syria, the potential for the Shiites to continue their slow spread across the Middle East and, more importantly, the greater oil fields in the center of the Middle East, Iran will continue to spread its strangling tentacles across the Muslim world. Iran had made an attempt at expanding during the Arab Winter revolution in Bahrain in direct opposition to the Bahraini Monarchy, Saudi Arabia. The Shiites were repulsed by heavy Saudi Arabian troops which were sent across the causeway which connects Saudi Arabia with the island nation of Bahrain. This was the second part of the Sunni-Shiite contest for preeminence in the Middle East after the Shiite taking control over Iraq after the United States war to remove Saddam Hussein. Syria will be the deciding battle. Should the Shiites and Iran prove successful the spread of the Iranian influence is likely to continue while should the Sunnis and the Saudi Arabian-Egyptian alliance will present a more stable future.


So, what does this mean we should look for in the future that might signal a change in the status quo? Should the Sunni win out in Syria there will be relative quiet, is the Middle East ever really completely tranquil, and the first sign of trouble coming would be the overthrow of the Saudi Arabian monarchy by either the Wahhabi or the Muslim Brotherhood. This would soon result in the final contest to begin for who will lead the Muslim forces in any eventual contest. Should the Shiites prove victorious in Syria their next target appears to be Turkey followed by Jordan. After Turkey and Jordan, choosing their next target will be problematic as their preference would appear to be Saudi Arabia and their satellite nations they provide protection for such as Bahrain, Kuwait, the Emirates, Qatar and Omar or Egypt in order to begin a march across Northern Africa. Iran is being patient with their slow and inexorable march to gain the preeminent position at the head of the Muslim world. But the first stop of this creeping revolution is in Syria. The worst result that could result in Syria would be actual Russian or American troops intervening in the Syrian Civil War. Should either of these nations transit from arming their chosen side to actual boots on the ground or even fighters in the skies, the other will be obliged to also enter the war. Where that leads is unimaginable and something to be avoided at all costs. The critical point of no return will come when one side appears poised to prevail and defeat the other side and the United States or Russia will have to either accept defeat of their surrogate or intervene. Intervention should be avoided but I seriously doubt that either President Obama or President Putin is capable of accepting defeat. That means that the only end to Syria may be decided across the entire planet and that should scare any reasonable person greatly. This does not bode to end well or even to end any other way than a devastating conflagration.


Beyond the Cusp


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