Beyond the Cusp

June 16, 2016

Political War in Aftermath of Pulse Nightclub, Orlando

 

The horrors and the toll in human life and limb makes anyone come to definitive conclusions on how to insure that such horrors never again darken our morning news. Reading the reactions in the news and online and each individual was adamant in their solution not only being the obvious solution but also inarguably the only possible conclusion any rational person could reach. What’s the problem then BTC? The main problem is people had fallen into two camps as distinctive as the day is long and nobody remarkably suggested what we see as a third solution just as possible of solving the problem as the others. There was one camp in which we find President Obama and Candidate Hillary Clinton. They agree that the real problem is the private ownership of guns and that if nobody had access to firearms then such crimes would never happen. The other camp which we find candidate Donald Trump where they claim the problem is radicalized Muslims. The former camp would accuse the second camp of Islamophobia. The second camp called the first on being unrealistic and ignoring a little impediment called the Second Amendment. What both sides missed was an easier solution to the problem, make reporting such news illegal. I know, we would be ignoring Amendment I, but since rights and the code of laws did not constrain the other two groups, why not throw in an easier if not more legal approach. Of course there would be another consequence of a law allowing only positive news stories; it would destroy news reporting until somebody discovered the work-around.

 

News reports could always take a positive slant on negative news such as we can all celebrate we were not crossing the street when two cars collided flying out of control and destroying a mailbox, isn’t it just wonderful there were no pedestrians who found themselves in the location in question. OK, sure we need some polish, but with time there would be formulae which could be implemented for virtually any evil being reported with a positive slant and avoiding any mention of the negatives. They could even point out how it was a fortunate circumstance that somebody called and an ambulance responded to transport the people for necessary treatment once again proving the great healthcare provided in the country. Well, maybe we should just leave the media free and not challenge Amendment I. As for the other two finger pointing claiming that either Islamists or firearms are to blame? Perhaps we should take them each in turn.

 

The claim that firearms were the problem and that, if only people were not permitted to own firearms, and all guns were removed from the world, then shootings like the Pulse Nightclub in Orlando would become impossible. Of course there is no mention that the removal of all firearms from the world is impossible as long as nations insist on keeping their militaries armed with, you guessed it, firearms. Making matters even worse, militaries use real fully automatic fire weapons as well as explosives and rocket firing weapons which some are capable or taking out entire rooms and small buildings as well as armored vehicles and downing aircraft, all a whole lot more destructive than anything generally out in the public currently. As long as there are weapons anywhere, there will be weapons everywhere, just the more illegal they are made the more sinister the people who will deal in them and the far higher the prices of firearms for which they will be sold. Further, as long as only military weaponry will be manufactured, the firearms which do make their way into the hands of the most determined of criminals will have far more destructive capabilities and possibly by leagues is likely as only slightly. Further, a determined killer or a mentally unbalanced one would still be capable of committing a crime of similar or potentially more devastating result in a similar scenario. Since it appeared that escape was not easily available for the victims in the club, a person armed with a sword of the quality and ability of those used in warfare since time immemorial, the resulting slaughter may have been even greater and the injuries far more horrific and the victims still just as incapable of defending themselves. This would be even more true had the perpetrator in such scenario would have armed themselves with leather armor, studded and spiked, chain linked helm and other items making them just as dangerous as any attacker in a closed room (see below). The main difference is a firearm is a ranged weapon but one could arm themselves with ranged weapons with a small version equally deadly crossbow which fires four inch darts. There are no limits to how deadly and devious to weapons beyond that of imagination, and human imagination has proved to be virtually limitless or at least not bound by laws of man.

 

Sword Alternative to Firearms Real and Imagined

Sword Alternative to Firearms Real and Imagined

 

So restricting weaponry would be just as futile as it would impossible; so what about the other side, limiting those believed to have dangerous beliefs or practices? This too has been tried in the past when science was young and religion was king. Their attempts to limit science proved only temporary and ineffectual as well. Discoveries came and science spread almost as far and as fast as the imagination could perceive new ideas and experiments to prove or disprove each postulation. It mattered little whether it proved or disproved as long as it produced answers which would simply generate more questions. There was no locking the box which is the human mind and it eventually proves preposterous to even try. The King of Spain sent an Armada to bring Protestant England back under the control of Rome and approved Christianity. At that time there was only the Church of Rome and the Church of England and the second was the young upstart. So initially religion attempted in Europe to regulate religion within defined boundaries and failed. Some claim that the spread of Protestantism indirectly led to the scientific revolution which spawned from the Protestant Reformation to the Reawakening, the Renaissance, then followed political revolution, industrial revolution, and then the greatest invention of mankind, for the first time since the giving of the Law at Mount Sinai the world gave people time to themselves, the weekend and private time. Jewish Law, Torah had conceived of the necessity for human beings to have time where work was put aside for a day and the Sabbath was observed where people could pursue private endeavors and learn which originally meant the study of Torah. Even the time spent in study of Torah allowed for time with family and relaxation from the daily burdens of toil and labor which even applied to the servant and the slave, which were more like one’s employees. The salary was clothing, housing, food and protection from facing the world alone with nothing and if one worked for a successful person, they might even have a small salary on top of everything else; otherwise, one would need to request their employer if they desired something beyond the basics.

 

That piece of history should serve to prove that the desires of the mind and the soul cannot be strapped and tied down by laws, edicts or any oppressive acts from an establishment or even the counterculture. The mind, the individual, the soul if you will, cannot be prevented from going wherever it is destined by the chain of experiences, influences and, yes, often the temptations of the forbidden. If “radical Islam” as a belief system were to be regarded as something forbidden, that would simply serve to make it all the more enticing and often to the most vulnerable and Islamic State gives a perfect example of the result of attempting such a ban. That is the problem with Donald Trump’s idea to ban Muslims for a period from entering the United States as that would just make those who did find their way over the border placed with such difficulties that radicalization would be made far easier as the concept that they were being beaten down and forced into the shadows. The best path has been proven time and again throughout history though more often societies have gone from the best to the worst method of facing differences in cultures. The tried and proven method is limited accommodation with reward for incorporation of the existing societal model while allowing for variance as long as it remains within legal standards. Acceptance goes a long way towards modifying behavior towards cooperation rather than conflict. That is not to say that all behavior is to me accommodated as there are, by necessity, limitations to acceptable behavior. An example would be the Aztecs could be permitted to dress as they wish but their practice of cutting out the beating heart as part of an annual ceremony would need to be prevented from the start. Human sacrifice is not an acceptable form of worship and some other means would have to be found. The same would be for animal ritual sacrifice. Sacrifice of an animal for a celebratory feast would also need to be regulated in some manner such that the animal does not suffer. Simply placing the live animal in a cage and rotating it over the fire would be unacceptable as would many cruel means for killing the animal, but if an accepted and humane death be performed and then the animal roasted and consumed, it might be extreme to many but it is not that far removed from taking a side of beef and roasting it on a spit at a huge celebratory feast where the meat is to be consumed. Granted, the majority would prefer smaller servings but how many have been to an all you can eat buffet where roast beef is carves off the bone for those who desire roast beef over say meatloaf.

 

Donald Trump’s seeming well timed but probably ill-advised suggestion that all Middle East immigration be ceased for a period of six months, where it could be done, would prove ineffectual as anybody wishing to reach the United States from the Middle East need only reach Turkey with whom there exist laws allowing for their immigration to the United States and even if not Turkey, the news informs us how easily any Middle East refugee can reach most of Europe and from there the United States again would be legal and relatively easy. There is no way to prevent a determined person from reaching the shores of the United States legally and most definitely illegally. Donald Trump’s claim that by making this ban it would prevent any terrorists from the Middle East from reaching America is utterly false as the terrorists are exactly those who would have the funds to defeat any regulation one could enact as their “blanket fix” for the problem. The solution is a full background check and with records as lax as they are and the turmoil making most people all but without any identifiable or especially documented history and once again it is the terrorist who would most likely be capable of meeting even those requirements. There is no absolute means of preventing terrorists from gaining entry to any nation as has been proven by the recent attack in Tel Aviv, as Israel has likely the most effective screening and tracking for terrorist and terror likely individuals; but still there are attacks and in great numbers as it is impossible to prevent those attacks committed by what are termed “lone wolves” as they have no traceable history of interaction with terror institutions or even other terrorists.

 

The best way to protect and prevent such horrific criminal carnage comes down to a select few things. Have a society which commits to equality, extends egalitarianism in all things, and provides opportunity. Further the people themselves need be welcoming, accepting of various cultures for as long as they remain within societal codes, enjoys respect of every individual and remembers from where they came as it sets where they will proceed. The laws must be equally applied and respected by all members of the society. The last thing is to remember that every person is a gem to be enjoyed and allowed to shine with their own special brilliance and every day offers equal opportunity for all to achieve. Beyond that is the government’s responsibility in making all safe and respecting of the laws and rights of one another. None of this is easily accomplished and no society has provided such a high standard for more than half a millennium. Some very select groups have managed to maintain such expectations of standard of their peoples and their identity we will leave for each reader to research and discover the identities for themselves as they may be quite surprised and the greatest surprise is amongst the select groups.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 4, 2015

What is Already Resulting From the Iran Deal?

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There are already sales being arranged despite the arms embargo not being lifted for five years. Does anyone believe these sales are being scheduled for anything longer than immediately after the money is in the bank? You have probably heard about the Russian sale of the S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems which was prevented a while back by pressure from Israel for Russia to respect the existing United Nations arms embargo. Well, according to Iran that United Nations Arms Embargo was lifted the minute the agreement was reached and signed, well, signed by Russia, China, Iran, France, Germany, and Great Britain and passed by the United Nations Security Council as a Chapter Seven binding resolution so no longer necessary for the United States to sign the agreement as the United Nations has made it binding on every United Nations member. The United States could still decide as a policy not to sell arms to Iran and could even place trade sanctions on nation who do sell arms to Iran; but this would simply leave the United States open for a suit for impeding free trade. Meanwhile Russia has closed the S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems and the Chinese have struck a deal to sell Iran one-hundred-fifty Chengdu J-10 sophisticated jet fighters with Israeli avionics and finally, so far, back to Russia who is set to sell Iran two-hundred-fifty highly-advanced Sukhoi-Su-30MK1 heavy-fighter-bombers as well as one-hundred IL78 MKI tanker aircraft which with the Chinese aircraft providing tactical air cover and the Su-30s figured for both bombing and long-range intercepts or electronic interference to foil ground interceptors the Iranians could bring a heavy air assault with air refueling extending the range bringing much of MENA and Europe within range of air assault. This as well as the advancing Iranian missile technology increasing range and accuracy provides Iran with just one more method for bringing Egypt, Israel, Turkey and beyond within Iranian range for multiple assault combining sufficient assault vehicles to overwhelm any defensive system no matter how many stages and overlap exists or the number of aircraft which can be put into the air to assist with the defense. Within two years Iran will have full range ICBMs with greater range than their present ballistic missiles and even threshold continental ballistic missiles which can reach beyond Paris and with a limited warhead weight even reach London with a reasonable degree of accuracy.

 

Even the limited warhead load limit permitting these missiles reaching London they could still carry nuclear warheads once Iran masters a modicum of miniaturization of an atomic bomb, such a device could conceivably strike London thus bringing every European capital within range with the exceptions of Ireland and Portugal. Does this make any of those nations who have been criticizing Israel for sounding the alarm still feel comfortable? Saudi Arabia feels so confident that they have confirmed the standing of their relationship with Pakistan that should they require nuclear weapons on the quick and quiet that the Pakistani government remembers the debt owed the Saudi Royal family for financing much of their crash nuclear emergency program to equalize their standing against a newly nuclear armed India. So, please do not interpret the silence from Saudi Arabia as being a sign of their comfort with the newly entry of Iran as virtually the next nuclear armed nation as they are not at peace about such an occurrence. Neither is Egypt at ease with this situation as is evident from their assisting Saudi Arabia in their attempts to assist the exiled government of Yemen to retake their nation from the Iranian armed Houthis who broke out of their tribal mountain areas which the arms and support of Iran which provided them with superior weaponry and training making their military abilities far exceed their previous abilities. With the armaments which the Iranians are going to be capable of providing their proxies in the near future could alter a number of conflicts and even the rule of one nation over the coming months or at the longest a year or two. The immediate nation under threat is obviously Yemen followed likely by Iraq then either Lebanon or Syria.

 

Additionally with the recent agreement between Turkey and the United States to fight against those forces challenging the Syrian rebels which to the average Western citizen, especially those in the United States, such a deal would imply they would be targeting the Islamic State but initial reports would imply that the initial targeting has been against the Kurdish forces. This comes on top of thus far unconfirmed reports that United States has been charging areas where Islamic State was operating but after-mission reports showed that the strikes struck areas immediately before Islamic State forces advanced into these areas. These unconfirmed reports tend to lend credence that orders were given to assist the Islamic State in areas where they border Kurdish controlled areas. These reports come along with the report that Turkey has finally allowed for the United States to fly missions from airbases in Turkey. That makes all of this appear to almost make sense, especially since the Kurdish party made sufficient headway taking a respectable number of seats which preventing President Erdogan’s PKK Party from attaining their usual majority of seats making it incapable of making a coalition by itself. This has led to some very distasteful moves by Erdogan including attempting to strip the Kurdish Parliamentary members of their immunity from prosecution so that he can bring charges against them and once they have been removed in sufficient numbers after speedy trials and their party disgraced then claim that no coalition is able to be reached and have new elections in which without the Kurdish party’s influence the PKK should easily gain their usual position of being a one party coalition and complete the conversion of Turkey from the free society that Mustafa Kemal Ataturk transformed Turkey to after the fall of the Ottoman Empire was disbanded after its having been on the losing side of World War I and make it basically a dictatorship with Erdogan as their President for life with absolute powers. This result is supported fully by the Turkish branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.

 

Should Erdogan succeed in completing his refashioning Turkey after his own image, then comes the big question, which side will Erdogan fall this time the question is given and he needs to choose once the Kurds have been ejected out of Syria and possibly Turkey as well, placing the fortunate Kurds making their way to norther Iraq, and Erdogan can either attempt to hide in what he believes fortress Turkey or he can choose Islamic State, a very risky group with which for Erdogan to align, or align with Bashir al-Assad and the Iranian Mullahs and Supreme Leader, an alignment Erdogan once played with but pulled back when trouble began at home needing his full efforts to resolve. Should Turkey align with Iran and come into a symbiosis that could place NATO in danger of having to support Turkey if they were to become involved in an Iranian war against Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Gulf States, Jordan and even, believe it or not, Israel and requests NATO assistance, then what does the rest of Europe and the United States do as NATO members and treaty bound to assist Turkey in any armed struggle. Would NATO refuse because the war is not a threat to Turkey itself and is being fought far from Turkish lands and thus Turkey is not under threat of invasion and their people would be safe if Turkey simply ended their offensive invasion against a nation previously not hostile to Turkey or actually even Iran or any of their neighbors until outside influences forced issues such as in the Yemeni Civil War where Iran has armed the Houthis against the government. The Middle East will explode in ten different ways once Iran can announce or be suspected of having manufactured nuclear weapons which would make Iran a hegemonic threat to the entirety of not just the Middle East but much of the rest of MENA and Europe not to mention the large chunk of Asia which would become threatened from any Iranian designs in their direction. Then, within a short period of time they will have mastered further rocket technology allowing their development of ICBMs.

 

As it is, both North Korea and Iran have orbited satellites which travelled on a south polar orbit and have already practiced and sent satellites with payloads sufficient to represent an EMP size and weight nuclear warhead such that they circled over the United States entering from the south perfectly in the hole in the radar and intercept sites which is a known soft spots in defenses yet are being ignored by Congress despite some warnings by military members. There are a number of articles which deal with these threats as follows: Center for Security Policy Jim Woolsey: Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) is existential threat to America from July 30, 2013, which means this possible threat was known from long before the negotiations with Iran were finalized and we appeared to have a rather cavalier attitude at best, and Experts: Iran Now a Nuclear-Ready State, Missiles Capable of Hitting US By William R. Graham, Henry F. Cooper, Fritz Ermarth, and Peter Vincent Pry from Sunday, Feb 1, 2015, and finally Op-Ed: EMP Blackout Could Be Closer than You Think by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry and Ambassador to the Negotiation on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, former Director of Central Intelligence, former Undersecretary of the Navy and Co-Chair of the EMP Coalition Jim Woolsey from November 07, 2013. This is only one manner in which Iran (or North Korea) could use an alternate system which involves firing a single stage and likely solid fuel missile from within a freighter or cargo container ship. Iran has proven this as not only a possibility, but an actual usable tactic which they tested firing missiles from the Caspian Sea deep into the Iranian desert in the southern regions which were furthest distance from the ship repeatedly and have become extremely proficient. Such an attack could be carried out from any coastal area on the United States including from the Gulf of Mexico utilizing that very same blind area in the United States defenses and would reach the central location of the United States then shoot up to the necessary altitude and detonate knocking out the transformers almost from the Atlantic coast to the Pacific coast and from Texas on northward into central Canada leaving a large percentage of the United States to die over the first year and the likelihood that the system would be returned to service would take at least a decade and very possibly several decades. The scenario has been known and the military has taken some elementary steps but is mostly depending that their equipment already being hardened. This would work for an interim period as their generator trucks and backup generators would permit their bases to function short term. The military also realize that they would at some point have to return to the civilian power grid and that is where their problems would begin. Food preservation would have an initial problem but it would take military intervention to even begin to truck food from farms to the cities. Societal cohesion would be disrupted and the cities would become war zones where the gangs would have the initial upper hand as they are the ones with weapons.

 

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories.

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories.

 

 

The problem with the Iranian nuclear deal is on so many levels that one can hardly know where to begin. Listing the obvious ramification of freeing up over one-hundred-fifty-billion-dollars and infusing the Iranian coffers will have long reaching ramifications. Believing that the majority of these funds will be used to relieve the suffering of the poorest in Iranian society is a bit Pollyannish as they have already spent almost half the incoming cash on weapons from Russia and China alone. These purchases are sufficient to start a formidable Air Force even if one were to be starting from scratch. About the only items not on their shopping list are training aircraft for the pilots to start their learning with. One must assume that the Iranians will be using whatever aircraft remained in their inventory as trainers and then assigning pilots according to their abilities. The Iranians had stated quite blatantly and fiercely that their plans were to install their latest and greatest centrifuges to use in their cascades and start production of enriched uranium immediately. President Obama has mislead the American public when he stated that the Iranians would not have any uranium enriched to the twenty-percent level which is one step from HEU (highly enriched uranium) which was presumably making the world safe from Iran being capable of making sufficient quantities of HEU without the inspectors reaching an inspection date and then they would easily catch Iran if there had been any cheating as there simply were too many steps before they could produce weapons grade uranium.

 

This assumption was made on the theory that the Iranians would need at least two centrifuge cascades running around the clock for Iran with the centrifuges permitted by the agreement, as President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry figured, would take Iran close to a year. The problem this poses is simple, these newest centrifuges that Iran plans on installing can take the three-percent uranium and run it through a cascade which would appear nearly identical to the cascades with the older centrifuges unless somebody did a close inspection which would require knowledge of exactly what each version looked like and exactly how to tell them apart. The only matter they could easily discern would be that all the centrifuges were of the same variety and had recently been tested and verified safe for use. A cascade of the newest and greatest centrifuges, if information we have seen is correct, arranged in a cascade in an identical manner they would be capable of taking three-percent or slightly higher such as five percent, both of which are levels they are permitted to have in their stores and from which they will be permitted to run through what for all intents and purposes appears to be a standard cascade which would only produce approximately twenty-percent to twenty-five-percent enriched uranium. With the newest centrifuges in a similar cascade, which would not in and of itself arouse any superstition, the Iranians would be capable, with a few minor adjustments; to produce weapons grade ninety-plus-percent HEU in one run. That is one run taking three to five percent uranium and making HEU bomb ready uranium in a single run. Such is the difference between the earlier centrifuges and their latest designs and the agreement permits further studies and designing of even more efficient centrifuges which the world can feel guaranteed will be put into service once it proves to be efficient and sturdy thus reducing the time required to reach weapons grade uranium.

 

The agreement which we have all seen and which can be viewed in an easy to read format provided by a Russian outlet and translated to English and edited by Beyond the Cusp to remove wasteful formatting which made the agreement nearly impossible to follow is titled Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации which we assumed meant “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Vienna,” dated 14 July 2015. The problem starts when we find out that there is a second agreement which was formulated through indirect communications with both sides sending their communication via the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and never negotiating directly. This apparent exercise in insanity had a very good and deceitful purpose, neither side could reveal the context of the deliberations between the other’s side with the IAEA as such negotiations are guaranteed secret and secure. Where the White House could give out their versions of the negotiations but not the items which were permitted them under an oath of secrecy, which in this particular case the White House will have developed morality and will observe their promises of silence. What makes this situation all the more convoluted is that we cannot know what the final agreement stated and it is entirely possible that the entirety of the White House conversation might very well start with an outline with stipulations, restrictions, requirements and establishing a serious and intense inspection routine including immediate snap inspections of every nuclear site, working or idled by the deal such that the starting demands would even satisfy Senator Tom Cotton. The entirety of the rest of the White House negotiations with Iran might then consist of a series of ‘yes’ and ‘no’ statement with a number interspersed and maybe even a few word phrase but nothing which could lead one to any conclusions. The two items you will be guaranteed to never see would not be the Iranian initial expressions of acceptable conditions as their initial description of their side and its desires and expectations nor would you see the final document and its stipulations, rights and requirements on both sides.

 

Some of the items which we have learned in the weeks since the initial agreement was released with its numerous different variations as each side took their own liberties when translating it to their own language and liking. We have found out that the United States will be providing protection from cyber-attacks on the Iranian nuclear projects. The United States is sworn to protect Iran from and air assault on their territories. The United States will share with Iran the blueprints and specification of the United States’ most advanced centrifuge. What other schematics and diagrams the United States has promised to provide the Iranians remains a mystery. When this agreement finally leads to the inevitability it has put into motion, then the biggest question will be on which side has the United States chosen to support, the Iranian Axis which by then will control: the bulk of the world’s oil coming from the Middle East, the Straits of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Waterway which also controls both the Israeli port to the Indian Ocean and beyond to the Pacific Ocean at Eilat and the gem of the Egyptian economy the Suez Canal making it all but useless, and a large swath of land stretching from the Indian Ocean at it eastern edge to the Mediterranean Sea at its western tip. Iran likely may have defeated the Islamic State with United States providing the air power to assist in ending that Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda offshoot which initially appeared unstoppable.

 

Bab el Mandeb Strait located at the southern end of Red Sea near western edge of Yemen which controls land overlooking the waterway which allows for blocking passage from Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea traffic from through Egyptian financial collapse without fees collected from the Suez Canal made useless if Bab el Mandeb shuttered also making the Port at Eilat Israel closed from its access to Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and all of Asia and the west coast of the United States, Canada and South and Central America.

Bab el Mandeb Strait located at the southern end of Red Sea near western edge of Yemen which controls land overlooking the waterway which allows for blocking passage from Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea traffic from through Egyptian financial collapse without fees collected from the Suez Canal made useless if Bab el Mandeb shuttered also making the Port at Eilat Israel closed from its access to Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and all of Asia and the west coast of the United States, Canada and South and Central America.

 

 

So, one has to wonder about what it was exactly that did stop them, was it the requirement that they rule these peoples they had now conquered and had gained a home-front which required order and allowing the farmers and others to tend to their business in peace and with the guarantee that the police would keep the peace. At some point the battle will break down to which truly is the stronger horse, the young stallion that burst onto the scene seemingly out of nowhere, their leader’s name is Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali Muhammad al-Badri al-Samarrai (in Arabic إبراهيم عواد إبراهيم علي محمد البدري السامرائي) and now simply known as al-Baghdadi; on February 2, 2004 he had been captured near Fallujah and been detained at Camp Bucca detention center under his name Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al-Badry and was held in Iraq until some time in December 2004 when he was released, as ‘low level prisoner’ after which during the Syrian civil insurrection he came upon opportunities to use his skill to catapult his group from simply an al-Qaeda cell into a self-sustaining entity controlling a large swath of land and across Syria and into central Iraq. Eventually Iran and the Islamic State will necessarily meet head to head, mano-a- mano and then the best force will prevail and one headache will have been eliminated by an adversary doing the world a favor. By the time this draw-down has occurred, Iran will have attained nuclear weapons but will not use them against the Islamic State as their use will be reserved for a larger and more important enemy, namely Israel and the United States, but not another Islamic nation as these it is best to convert the population after proving the superiority where Allah visited victory on the Shiite troops and then offer the fighters from the vanquished side to magnanimously accept them into the forces for truth, the forces favored by Allah who gave them victory. Should these fighters accept the offers remember that they should be placed at the front and be the tip of the spear where Allah can test their conviction and faithfulness and if theirs is a true conversion then Allah will grant them the commission of heroic deeds and if not they will join their former officers who were tried for their crimes against Allah through their organizing and sending brave but misguided soldiers to execute the plans to visit harm on the true forces if Islam. These are the perceived gains received from the Islamic State war with the Shiites of Iran and Iraq along with Hezballah completing the forces of Shia Islam who do appear to be the superior force which has gained the blessings from Allah.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 8, 2015

Should ISIS Replace Hamas in Gaza; So What?

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There has been a news story running around loose that ISIS is causing ripples of violence and is intending to replace Hamas as the governing body in Gaza. Should this actually come to pass, what difference it would make has not been explained in the stories I have seen and I am pretty sure I know why, the truth would be too revealing. The other reason this story has had the emphasis given it is so that the world will see such an event as something horrific and of causing a sea of change probably for the worse. This is true only if your name happens to be Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashal of Hamas or Ramadan Shalah and Abd Al Aziz Awda of Islamic Jihad and potentially some of the other top echelon commanders such as Hamas Military Commander Muhammad Deif. The terrorist members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad have been complimented by the lead members of ISIS in Gaza as far back as last summer’s Operation Protective Edge though you would be hard pressed to find many, if any, news stories mentioning such, especially outside of Israel. Even within the Israeli media the subject was barely ever breached for reasons that escape me for their logic. The most news that mentioned Hamas and ISIS in the same breath was those quoting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and a few other Israeli politicians and top security officers in the IDF and Shin Bet who were making the point publically that there was really no discernible difference between Hamas and ISIS despite what the world media cared to report. The actual discernible difference should both Hamas and Islamic Jihad along with the remaining Fatah and Palestinian Authority individuals all be supplanted by ISIS would be that Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashal of Hamas as well as Ramadan Shalah and Abd Al Aziz Awda of Islamic Jihad and perhaps some of the secondary commanders who were seen as not sufficiently bold in their efforts against Israel as that would be the level of the majority of the change. I am fairly sure that the topmost leaders of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah, al-Qaeda of Gaza and any other top commanders who have been getting excessively wealthy usurping funds off the top for personal gain, better known as greed, then you have something to fear as such activities are not pure and will deserve punishment by the leaders of ISIS. The top people with the most profit from their positions such as the billionaires of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashal who are both worth many billions of dollars, will simply be spending a lot more time at their mansions in Qatar and as time passes less and less time anywhere near Gaza, Mashal has not visited Gaza except for that occasional photo-op just to validate his credentials and to raise morale amongst the troops. The main loss to these leaders is that the gravy train will stop running and they will just have to suffer a serious financial setback and need to spend very carefully such that they do not spend through their billions of dollars too quickly.

 

In Gaza the difference will be minimal until ISIS has attained what they consider a critical mass such that they have the troops and equipment in place and everything ready for their assault on Israel. They will tell their forces that the day when the Zionist entity will pay dearly and no longer be in possession of the stolen Muslim lands and their fellow Muslims who are pure in their practice and intentions will finally celebrate their victory over the much hated enemies of Allah. Needless to point out but if you happen to be an Arab, Muslim or not, resident in Israel and ISIS were to even temporarily for some few hours gain control of your area of residence then you would be best served to be elsewhere during that period as any Israel Arab, especially the Muslims, will be treated according to Quranic texts and their most violent and strictest of interpretations. This means that those who are followers of Islam will have to explain to deaf ears why they had not risen up and destroyed Israel from the inside and were instead living so peaceably with the Jews. After said testimony, which will be interpreted to be more of a confession of guilt, these Muslims will be declared apostate and appropriately murdered, most likely burned alive as has been the lot for the Shia captured by ISIS. The best off will be the Arab Christians who will be permitted to live after paying the Jiyza, the tax especially levied against Christians and other non-Muslims under which their Muslim leadership will protect them until the next payment comes due, but be warned that sooner rather than later you will either not have the funds to pay the Jiyza or will be given the final choice between adopting Islam or death, and conversion will not necessarily save you as your forced conversion may be determined not to have been spiritually uplifting and you would then meet the fate of an apostate, burned alive.

 

After Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the rest of the terrorist forces in Gaza would necessarily come under the control of ISIS the sea change would barely be more noticeable than a ripple added to the surf pounding the coast; simply put it would produce negligible change. The changes would mostly be cosmetic as while the production of rockets would be increased with the rockets being stored for intense use in support of the eventual ISIS assault to eliminate Israel and liberate the stolen lands which they as the next Caliphate should rule over all the lands that were ever under Islamic rule and that includes all of Israel. The reality would likely be very different as ISIS has a much larger and more important foe than Israel which has been under attack for some time using Gaza as a safe haven and supply depot. The other dirty little secret that the news media have not reported about is that ISIS presence in Gaza is mostly to operate as their liaison with Hamas who manage the supplies and provisions so as to have ISIS in the Sinai Peninsula provided with the appropriate weaponry and ammunition for their attacks on Egyptian forces as their intent is to be able to take possession of sufficient amounts, all or the vast majority, of the entirety of the Sinai Peninsula and have successfully pushed all Egyptian forces from the field of battle and be capable of announcing their great victory and spread into the Sinai Peninsula and declared it as a part of the Islamic State being founded by ISIS. Such an accomplishment would necessarily demand an Egyptian counter-offensive to retake control over the entirety of the Sinai Peninsula using solely Egyptian forces so as not to need Israeli assistance of any note as such would arm ISIS with a propaganda battering-ram with which to unseat President Sisi and the Egyptian government and replace such rule over all of Egypt claiming it for the Islamic State’s Caliphate, just another jewel in their turban and another loss for the Arab Muslims desiring peace under which they can continue their lives.

 

Once ISIS has managed to wrest the Sinai Peninsula from Egyptian control, then ISIS would turn their attention on capturing Cairo and Alexandria, Egypt and then annex the remainder of the country setting to purify the Egyptian population by testing the people on their levels of devotion and knowledge of the Quran and Muslim Law, the Sharia. Should ISIS have the capability of defeating the Egyptian military, not only would such a victory be impressive adding greatly to their reputation, it would serve as another reason proving they are in fact and deed the Caliphate they have declared themselves to be and thus would attract even larger numbers of disenfranchised youth from Western nations as well as across the Muslim world. Such a victory would make any plans to defeat ISIS close to impossible, especially utilizing solely the Iranian forces, even were there to be provided airstrikes as required in support of ground operations to defeat ISIS or seemingly to stop their incremental advances creeping across the landscape. Such a gain would also connect ISIS forces in Libya to the rest of ISIS as well as placing ISIS that much closer to uniting with Boko Haram in western Africa and based in Nigeria. Adding the weapons systems and fighter aircraft to the ISIS arsenals would also be augmented by providing safe zones in which ISIS could train their own pilots providing them with a force multiplier, air support and bombing targets in order to soften them for the ensuing ground assault, something carried out currently by suicide bombers. Such gains made by ISIS would pose a direct threat to the entirety of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and place increased fears in Europe, particularly the southern nations bordering the Mediterranean Sea. One might suspect that such gains and the accompanying threats would provide sufficient threats that the United States would act in a more forceful manner beyond limited airstrikes, but it is our conjecture that until, at the earliest, mid-January 2017 the world can pretty much rule out any increase in their commitment than to provide minimal air support of a few sorties on an active day. One reason that President Obama would not escalate the situation with ISIS would be due to any expansion westwards across northern Africa poses no imminent threat to Iran. In such a case, western movement would take the focus off Iran allowing them to better prepare for their inevitable conflict with ISIS for as long as ISIS exists, the Shia Muslims will not be safe anymore than Jews, Christians and others who do not bow to Allah.

 

The current efforts by ISIS are bringing more forces to bear in the Sinai Peninsula and it appears they will simply be cementing their gains in Iraq for the time being while continuing their efforts in Syria while striking in the Sinai in an effort to overwhelm the Egyptian forces currently holding the area. This is a natural fit for ISIS to open its next expansion as they already have a resupply base where they are able to keep supplies safely and a place they can hide away from the warfront retreating and enjoying relative peace in which to lick their wounds and plan for their next strike. The ISIS strategy is to strike hard with as many forces across as many fronts of the area of operations causing confusion and high casualty counts on their enemy attempting to overrun their checkpoints and other positions. This is the first time ISIS is fighting a national armed forces as until now they were fighting the remnants of a the Syrian Army and militias such as the Kurdish Peshmerga forces and the Sunni and Shia militias in Iraq and some of Iranian IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) forces which have continued to hold Baghdad and stymying further advances. This has forced ISIS to open a new front from which to make headway and continue to project their strong horse imagery and their invincible forces. Their raid this week assaulted multiple targets striking checkpoints and guard positions across the Sinai Peninsula. These strikes met with varying levels of defense but by the end of the day the Egyptian army had regrouped and pushed ISIS from all the positions they had taken earlier in the day. This was accomplished using assets wisely. The coordinated fight was conducted using forces including the Egyptian Air Force, armored units and those ground forces already deployed in the Sinai Peninsula. ISIS actually brought supplies out of Gaza prompting one Egyptian military leader to breach the subject of Gaza claiming that Egypt held the option of their forces going into Gaza and striking hard at any opposition units that may be; including Hamas, Islamic Jihad or other terror forces they find in Gaza. Initial results have shown that ISIS can push the Egyptian forces from their positions but they have thus far been unable to retain the grounds gained and are forced back into hiding. This may prove to be a war of attrition which would favor ISIS as they are gaining strength as the Western Powers, particularly the United States, appear reticent as they refuse to commit ground troops and actually fight against ISIS. Their anxiousness might be due to their having a plan for one great rout of the United States forces reminiscent of the Tet Offensive in Viet Nam. What that taught the leaders who have studied the History of the United States, particularly their innovative abilities to adapt to their situation and implement strategic options changing their tactics and adopting new and innovative tactics to fit that situation but that as long as the enemy can claim a victory and have produced large numbers of casualties that the media will reside with the isolationist reporting the offensive as have created a new and perilous situation where the forces fighting the United States are described as valiant while the United States military are cast as murderous and treacherous and any other derogatory terms and cast as losing the war or at best not winning. Once the American public has been bombarded with such news reports they demand the troops be brought home and from that point forward the United States has lost and their enemies need only keep up a modicum of effort as a constant reminder and to continue the nightly body count at the opening of every newscast. This was what defeated the United States in Viet Nan, in Afghanistan, and in Iraq once already and the one strength the terror forces have is they have nowhere to run to so they will fight to the last man, woman and child. That sort of determination takes an amount of steady and constant levels of ruthlessness in order to not only defeat them in every battle but to break their spirit and prove to them beyond any doubt that their cause is useless and, in this case, Allah does not favor them being deserving of victory and has handed victory to their sworn enemies. The only question is once the coming war begins, will the American people have the stamina and stomach for completing the fight or will they simply first surrender to the coming propaganda and then inevitably face the final surrender, surrendering to Allah and becoming Muslim and all that does entail.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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