Beyond the Cusp

July 4, 2015

Who Will Pope Francis Blame When ISIS Slaughters in Jerusalem?

Filed under: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,Act of War,Administration,al-Qaeda,al-Qaeda,al-Qaeda in Gaza,Allah,Amalekites,American People Voice Opinion,Amman,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab Winter,Arab World,Arabist,Arabs,Attack,Barbarian Forces,Beheading,Black September,Blood Libel,Boko Haram,Border Patrol,Calaphate,Caliphate,Caliphate,Catholic,Catholic Churh,Catholic Institutions,Children Murdered,Chosen People,Church,Civilization,Commandments,Conflict Avoidnce,Consequences,Covenant,Covert Actions,Coverup,Cult,Defend Israel,Divided Jerusalem,Domestic NGOs,East Jerusalem,European Media,European Pressure,Fatah,Forced Solution,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Hamas,Hate,History,HUMINT,Inteligence Report,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Intifada,ISIS,ISIS in Judea and Samaria,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jewish Home,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,Jihad,Jordan,Judea,Kidnap Children,Kidnapped Israeli,Leftist Pressures,Libya,Mainstream Media,Meaning of Peace,Media,Middle East,Military Intervention,Military Option,Mohammed,Munich Olympics,Murder Israelis,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Muslims,Naqba,Nationalist Pressures,Old City,Palestinian Pressures,Pogroms,Politically Correct,Politically Incorrect,Politicized Findings,Politics,Pope,Promised Land,Promised Land,Quran,Rebel Forces,Religion,Response to Muslim Takeover,Response to Terrorism,Salafists,Samaria,Secular Interests,Security,Security Detail,Separation Barrier,Sharia Law,Shooting,Sinai,Statehood,Submission,Suicide Bomber,Sunni,Syria,Temple Mount,Terror,Third Intifada,Victims,West Bank,World Media,World Opinion,World Pressures,Yonatan Netanyahu,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:57 AM
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Pope Francis, during his visitation to the Holy Lands, was sure to make a very public statement over the plight of the Palestinian Arabs as he made a highly publicized stop at the exact section of the security barrier where Pope Francis claimed to make a prayer for a unified Arab Palestinian State emphasizing the proposed relationship to, as scrawled on that very section of the barrier, the similarity of the Warsaw Ghetto’s walls and the Israeli built security barrier, a separation object that is largely a fence but along certain stretches is required to be an actual wall such as within heavily built up areas so that it also keeps bullets and explosives from being easily launched into Israeli areas safeguarding both Arabs and Jews of all religions and all others from terrorist assaults on their lives and which has resulted in a highly effective tool in preventing homicide/suicide bombers, homicidal vehicle attacks and sniper attacks of various varieties bringing such attacks down to becoming a rarity compared to previous attacks before the barrier was constructed. Further, Pope Francis made it publically emphasized that his trip began with meetings with Mahmoud Abbas and the Arab Palestinians which he made sure to enter from Jordan flying initially into the Jordanian capital city of Amman specifically to avoid any possible meeting with Israeli officials. The Pope went further as he make a long procession, almost a victory parade, accompanied by numerous Arab Palestinian leadership from Bethlehem to Jerusalem emphasizing in his remarks the plight and flight from Bethlehem of its once predominant Christian population making heavy implications that such a sorry state of affairs had everything to do with Israeli ‘occupation’ and the hardships caused by the Israeli government, meaning the Jewish People, completely absolving the Arab Palestinians and their history of antagonism and persecution of the Christians causing the massive flight in fear for their lives from threats and actual terrorist aggressions.

 

This was followed by a visit to Israel where Pope Francis had a totally different persona becoming somewhat aggressive and antagonistic demanding the Catholic Church be granted their inalienable rights to ownership of large areas of Jerusalem with special emphasis on newly made claims to the building which houses the gravesite of King David claiming the room above King David’s tomb was a possible Christian Holy Site where the Last Supper had recently been claimed to have taken place moving it from the previous traditional spot where there were no contentious claims to this aggressively contentious place where it placed this Christian site above and over a highly Jewish site and further the Pope demanded rights to offer prayer services, a privilege granted and almost immediately abused by attempting to hold such prayers specifically on days where Jews had particularly offered up prayers from the site and taking assurances to hold these prayer before the scheduled Jewish services thus intentionally making the site void for Jewish prayer. The Pope was far from done with his assault on Judaism as well as launching additional assaults on Israel and Israeli claims within the Holy Lands in general at times appearing to insinuate obliquely that the Jews were without any religious claims as they were no longer recognized as having any religious rights having been supplanted and superseded making void any Jewish religiously made claims having been replaced by Christianity.

 

This particular claim made by the Pontiff has ramifications beyond the replacement theology where it is postulated that the Jews have become damned as replaced as the chosen people by the Christians, the Pope would claim the Catholic Church, and no longer favored by the L0rd and cast forth from Jerusalem specifically and without claims throughout the Holy Lands. Pope Francis has, by renewing the replacement theology of the past, set the precedent that Hashem can and has broken vows and promises made to Abraham, Isaac, Jacob, Moses, King David and others which identified the Jewish People as those chosen to carry His Message to the rest of the world has been abrogated and transferred to the Catholic Church which makes the supersessions claimed by Islam claiming that the Christians have themselves been cast off as were the Jews making the Muslims not only the replacement in eyes of Hashem but also the final chosen peoples to carry forth the messages of Hashem and, going one step further, the ones chosen to rule all of humanity going even further afield of a similar claim indigenous to the Christian faith as Judaism never held that the world would be their inheritance, they claimed only a rather insignificant measure of land strategic only in its central location to Europe, Africa and Asia being the region where the three continents converge and having ports which can connect the two main trade routes which have since been serviced by the Suez Canal.

 

The reassertion of the policy of the Catholic Church having replaced the Jews as those having a covenant with Hashem has left the Catholic Church also subjected to being replaced as the chosen of Hashem which is exactly the claim made by Islam. Carrying the replacement and the sole holy religion has also seen both Catholicism, in the more native guise of Christianity, and Islam to thus interpret such to authorize their sovereignty over the entire planet in order for them to properly prepare for the return of Jesus which had been carried one step further by the Islamic extremists claim that their religion being the sole religion Divinely inspired as the replacement, the final replacement of both Judaism and Christianity not only should rule over all of Earth but also be the sole religion practiced by all mankind. This has been carried out to the letter by ISIS as well as being the stated end goal by Iran, Hamas, Hezballah and various other claimants to being the sole pure remaining practitioners of Islam as defined by Muhammad and is behind a very real threat being made by ISIS and a number of their adherents. The agents for ISIS in Judea and Samaria (West Bank), why that redundancy is required by all that is politically correct makes me really desire to cease the practice, and I shall endeavor to do so going forth, are requesting for a list of all the Christians residing in (East) Jerusalem and their addresses to be given to those ISIS representatives by the faithful of Muhammad, note that not all are claiming faithful to ISIS following the practice of deference when outnumbered and until gaining sufficient numbers, somewhere around twenty percent, before becoming more forceful and soon thereafter, around thirty-five percent, taking rule by force and demanding total and complete allegiance followed by choice of becoming part of the faithful as defined by ISIS to the sword, otherwise death. They want these lists as soon as possible such that they can make the necessary plans and make sure they have the necessary power and people to carry out an ethnic cleansing of the Christians residing in Eastern Jerusalem. They have not requested such a list of the Jews residing within the area as they likely believe that those entire neighborhoods are easily known and identifiable.

 

This list will necessarily be assembled with an assault plan in mind by which the vast majority of the Christians residing in Eastern Jerusalem will be forced from the area implied by the sword and not by choice but such will probably be a logistics driven decision. The ISIS planners will take the precaution of having sufficient deployment of forces such that each unit will have a flanking unit on either side or at a close proximity allowing the massing of forces should any resistance be mounted such that they can quickly and without sacrificing their intended missions gather sufficient force to swarm any resistance counting on numbers to turn the tide of battle. Such has been the tactic used by ISIS as well as preparing the area for their assault before-hand. Not possessing sufficient artillery ISIS instead uses vehicle bombs and homicide/suicide bombers to soften their intended targets instilling confusion and disorganization amongst their intended target before they follow-up with swarming the target neutralizing any recovery minimizing their target any time to regroup and form a coordinated counterattacks or even an organized defense with overlapping fields of fire and the other considerations usually carried out well in advance and practiced including tactics of the enemy being interjected at unannounced times to test procedures for just such scenarios. The target in this instance is basically a cleansing operation intended to either clear an area of any opposition or make clear that certain types residing within an area should necessarily depart before they too face the determined business end of an ISIS representative’s weapon. Their announced target date for this cleansing of the population for Allah is the final day of Ramadan which falls in July 16, 2015.

 

The first determination which must be realized by Israeli police and military forces is whether to act as an intervention in force early on and prevent the organization of ISIS forces, wait until they have gathered so as to maximize arrests, intervene as soon as the assembled ISIS forces pose a threat or to simply ignore the threat and only respond to calls in an usual manner leaving the Arab Palestinians pretty much to their own ability. The final option is actually an option not supported by Torah and Jewish Law as we are directed to protect human life as even the lowest amongst us, the beggar, the infirm, the stranger and others we might normally divert our attentions from are still lives we are commanded to care for and keep safe. The concept that each life is potentially an entire nation thus if one saves one life it is as if one has saved a world. That basically means that Israeli defense and law enforcement forces must be prepared for and the one which is most feasible resulting in there being no loss of life be the ones sent for further considerations. Another consideration should be by which of the tactics that prevents any innocent casualties would allow for the most ruinous of setbacks for ISIS and at the same time making their claims of bringing the reincarnation of the Caliphate into question. There needs to be one more principled consideration, the threat to Israeli personnel and citizens, not to claim that any one life is of greater importance than another as that is beyond our ability to reason and is best left to the Creator who knows all things, Hashem. There is one consideration which must be made initially; which is whether or not this threat posed is valid and thus worthy of making and practicing for such an eventuality. Most ISIS threats issued have proven to be real and worthy of notice, but that does not necessarily mean that this attack threat must automatically be considered valid. This threat might be being presented to gauge the level of Israeli response to threats in order to more closely study the anatomy of such a response. Whatever the reasoning behind such a threat, Israeli leadership can be assured they will be held totally responsible for any casualties outside Israeli personnel. Any other nation would be the recipient of sympathy and offers of assistance with the aftermath with support in repairing any damage, aid money to augment responses training in preparation as if there is a singular attack response which would be universally applied to every attack and resolve all problems and serious planning for special situations such as a visit and speech by another head of state.

 

The importance of responding both effectively and forcefully against any initial attack while not going to an overboard approach cannot be overestimated in this instance. Should Israel present an overly cautious and overt response to this particular threat, then ISIS planners would have an effective but simple approach to fomenting fear within Israel by simply pretending to plan an attack and allow the overt, heavy-handed Israeli ramping-up of security measures. Fortunately, for actual events such as parades, speeches and other events or places where people congregate such as train and bus stations and malls; Israel does a fabulous and renowned level of successful security to meet the requirement necessary for each location and expected crowd. Since all ISIS would need to do to estimate the Israeli response to any situation would be to go study any previous similar situation and view the control of the threat level caused and they would have their answer. Pushing a threat against Israel on her own soil and thus giving her home field advantage will simply make everything that much more difficult for ISIS. In this instance Israel will be required to bring to the table an actual threat assessment and response plan as should ISIS actually follow through on a mission to slaughter as many civilian innocents, almost especially any of the numerous minority populations, as Israel is held to the highest expectation of levels possible in the world. Israel is the only nation expected to be capable of providing on a consistent and near universal level security superior to any European nation, any Western nation and even particularly the United States. Israeli security is expected to match when provided for the most insignificant of those amongst us a level of public security roughly the equivalent of that provided the Queen of England, and Israel has thus far throughout her brief but situation filled history met that challenge almost universally; Baruch Hashem. Anybody wishing an actual example of similar situations and the difference between Israeli response and another nation with proper expectations of being capable in a security situation such as a hostage crisis, simply compare the handling of the 1972 Olympic Games abduction of the Israeli team in Munich where most of the Israeli team consisting of six Israeli coaches and five Israeli athletes were taken hostage and ended up murdered along with one German police officer while five Black September members were eliminated in the regrettable failed rescue attempt where the plans for the rescue operation were poorly executed and all of the requested aid did not arrive on scene until two hours after the stand-off and siege began leading to the conflagration that murdered most of the Israelis tied up in the helicopter which was detonated with a grenade thrown by one of the terrorists compared to the Entebbe raid by an elite IDF unit responding to the hijacking of an Air France flight and the holding of Israeli and Jewish passengers and crew numbering over one hundred victims at Entebbe International Airport in Uganda, a distance of over 2,500 miles (4,000 km) in Operation Entebbe, as it came to be known, on July 4, 1976 (giving Israelis a reason to celebrate on as high a level as the people in the United States could on that nation’s bicentennial celebrations) where all but four of the one-hundred-six hostages were rescued with the IDF team suffering five injured and a sole fatality of one of the team commanders and older brother to a future Israeli Prime Minister, Lt. Col. Yonatan Netanyahu, and all of the terrorists either killed or injured along with almost half of the approximately one hundred Ugandan military troops providing security for the terrorists. Israel had offered assistance and even to handle a rescue attempt with the German government who not only refused the Israeli offer but informed Israeli government officials that any Israelis sent to Germany would be refused entry at the airport and returned to Israel as this was a German operation and Israel had no right to interfere. Perhaps the Germans should have turned it over to the Israelis and thus make Israel responsible for the results.

 

But what is it they say about history, it is what it is and physics has not yet figured out how to alter history, only politicians and the media have such power. That is why when the history is written about the July 16, 2015 ISIS Ramadan assault intending to murder every Christian possible throughout Eastern Jerusalem the only credit or blame for this intended catastrophe in the manner of the cleansing of Mosul, the destruction of the two-thousand-eight-hundred-year-old capital of the Assyrian empire, Khorsabad, including its seven gates and the city with its most highly regarded sixty-four foot wall erected around 713 BCE by King Sargon II during his reign and nearly completely demolished in the beginning of the twenty-first century (or the fifteenth century on the Islamic calendar), parts of which have been preserved in museums in Baghdad, Paris, London and Chicago; destroyed thousands of books in libraries across the lands they have savagely rampaged with some of the books such as the rare books in Mosul are irreplaceable and singular remnants of wisdom and writings from ancient to the modern times; reintroduced slavery on a massive scale and especially the selling of woman as sexual slaves to the highest bidder, some women have been returned for receipt of a percentage of her resale price; burned, drowned, prisoners alive; shot, and beheaded people sentenced to death for even minor offences or taken prisoner; crucified Christians; blown apart prisoners shoved into a car with anti-tank missile; taken sledge hammers to ancient sculptures, vases, pottery destroying ancient displays in museums; and promised to bring this parade of horrors to every corner of the globe should they be allowed that possibility. This is the assembly of monsters across continents with fellow travelers identifying and subjugating their will all in a similar vein such as Boko Haram in Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad; and other equally offensive and revolting acts all threatening to replace the comfortable lives of the decadent Western world should they be given that chance. That is their promise and where is the response from the supposed civilized world? They are either leading from behind or covering the back of the leader leading from behind all in all leaving Israel to fight the world’s war and stop the advance of those who desire a return to the tenth century, a backwards jolt on either calendar, especially the Jewish calendar which is in the fifty-eighth century.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 28, 2015

Iran, Iraq, Syria, and the Messy Middle East

Filed under: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,Act of War,Administration,Afghanistan,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab League,Arab Spring,Arab Winter,Arab World,Armed Services,Asia,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Britain,Cairo Speech,Calaphate,Cass Sunstein,Ceasefire,Civil War,Civilization,Colonial Possession,Conflict Avoidnce,Court Order,Coverup,Dhimmi,Ditherer in Chief,Divided Jerusalem,Ease Sanctions,East Jerusalem,Economic Sanctions,Egypt,Europe,European Council,European Historic Anti Semitism,Executive Order,Fatwa,Forced Solution,Fordo,Former Soviet Republic,France,Golden Age of Islam,Government,Hate,History,Holy Sites,Illegal Immigration,Ineffective Sanctions,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps,Iraq,IRGC,ISIS,Islam,Islam,Islam,Islamic State,Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Italy,Jerusalem,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Home,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,Kurdish Militias,Kurdistan,Kurds,Leftist Pressures,Military Advisors,Military Aid,Military Option,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Muslim Expansionism,Muslim World,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Old City,Ottoman Empire,P5+1,Persians,Peshmerga Militias,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,Quran,Ramadan,Remove Sanctions,Response to Muslim Takeover,Russia,Saddam Hussein,Sanctions,Saudi Arabia,Saudi Military,Secular Interests,Sharia,Shiite,Soviet Union,Sykes-Picot,Syrian Military,Taqiyya,Temple Mount,Threat of War,Threat of War,Twelvers,United States,Uranium Enrichment,Victims,War,World Opinion,World Pressures,World War I,World War II,World Without Zionism or America,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:40 AM
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We may as well write one summary of the different threats to war and actual wars in an all-in-one article. Apparently the Iran negotiations appear to have the most dire predictions of which business as usual is probably the biggest threat of them all. Thus far no final agreement appears to be on the horizon and would have been out of the question and all the sanctions and potentially more would be the current business as usual. It is abundantly obvious that United States President Obama and his Secretary of State Kerry are willing to roll over and accept whatever crumbs the Iranians will permit them and still pronounce the ‘it’s not a treaty it’s a Presidential arms agreement’ treaty, the peace in our time agreement which has Secretary Kerry’s and Iran Foreign Minister Zarif’s signatures on it promising that there will be no unnecessary or over hostile acts by the Iranian government and their work (not that there was any) towards the production of nuclear weapons for ten years, as a momentous diplomatic agreement which will place Iran on the road to international acceptance and into the world of nations. The signs that there will be an agreement, not treaty, completed by the deadline, or a few days, months, years later after more serious negotiations, of the end of June with a potential aligning ceremony in the Oval Office on the Fourth of July which will just be further evidence of the importance of the reaching an accord. Then there are the assurances and uncertainties all depending on your source as to whether or not the deal in progress is an advantageous or detrimental agreement with the numbers of sceptics steadily appearing to increase the closer we all get to an agreement. The only assurances we have is that this agreement will be beneficial to all and that the people telling us this belong to one of two groups, those reporting about the particulars that even the negotiators admit is uncertain if the agreement will encompass said assurance or are part of the providers of information who are attempting to make any agreement a positive no matter how many half-truths and outright-lies they have to shovel to a swarm of ever hungry media swarm all in an effort to further President Obama’s second greatest achievement in office after Obamacare. Such a comparison alone should worry even the greatest supporters of the President and this deal.

 

So, what can we know for sure? For one, it is that the sanctions will be lifted, all of them, or as many as President Obama can humanly bring to an end. This has been made evident through encouragements given to many leaders of industry, particularly the oil and gas industry. It has been reported that the White House has encouraged the chief executives of the Dutch Shell company, Total of France, Italy’s Eni and Lukoil of Russia to initiate talks to normalize and expand the Iranian energy sector of their economy. There have been signals, mostly in Russia, China and Europe and not-so-much in the United States (quite curious this is) to also put forth feelers and prepare the groundwork and even go so far as to agree on principles of agreements which can be made to go active the very second that any P5+1 and Iranian agreement is signed and in effect. This has been the message over the past two months and has yet to diminish in its optimism despite the negotiations appearing to crumble as Iran pulls back and refuses to agree on what one would think are some of the most vital necessities for an agreement which would be observed and have inspections of such a nature as to make such compliances enforceable. These overtures have been made while the White House continues to make statements purporting normal progress at the talks and a general sense of agreement on some of the most vital issues. President Obama has communicated through channels in the media that there will be an intensive inspection routine including snap without warning inspections while the Iranians continue to believe that the negotiations specifically forbade snap inspections nor allow inspections of what Iran denotes as military infrastructure and bases nor permit any inspection without ample and reasonable, to be determined by Iran on an individual basis, notifications before Iran will permit any single inspection. The White House insists that Iran will come forth on its previous military and nuclear procedures, accomplishments and other vital and necessary information even on particularly touchy questions which within the last week began its metamorphosis into a very different animal where suddenly the Administration claims that there is little to be gained by forcing the point of Iran reporting its previous work as we know where they have gone and what they have achieved and everything has been above board all while the Iranians remain quite intransigent on permitting inspections of military bases or revealing the information on all previous nuclear activities and military progress in related fields. From apparent media reports over the past few days the Administration appears to have become omniscient on all things concerning Iranian past progress, military research and development, military progress on missile technology (which to many observers to be directed on developing a reliable ICBM which will supplement their ballistic missile inventory adding the ability to directly strike the United States which some may find an odd direction for such intense research if one is not developing nuclear weapons to place atop those ICBMs) and possible work on a nuclear trigger mechanism which is vital to the production of nuclear and thermonuclear weapons. This was supposed to settle the arguments that Iran may be hiding vital work which would include some very damning information casting the long shadow of doubt on Iranian denials to be researching the industrial development of nuclear weapons.

 

Still, the date of the presumed coming out party has been set. The final particulars of the United States surrender are being completed, the promise that after the agreement has been put in place that all sanctions will be removed has been given though not admitted and one of the latest individual pieces has been the apparent agreement that the P5+1 (read United States) will provide Iran with several light water reactors which produce plutonium which is useable for production of nuclear weapons at a far less aggressive rate than the heavy water reactor at Arak. Further, Iran shall be provided with other technologies for civilian uses of nuclear power and enriched uranium and lastly, recently leaked information indicates that the Fordo nuclear enrichment site, which was built into the heart of a mountain and is considered impervious to any bombing attack, shall remain operating with promises that it will not be utilized for enrichment of uranium for nuclear weapons and instead will limit the enrichment cycles to keep them beneath weapons grade of over ninety-percent. Secretary of State John Kerry has affirmed that the United States has already relaxed several sanctions and has stated the sanctions will be lifted immediately after any signing of an agreement without having performed any steps for verifying Iranian compliance with whatever limitations and restrictions that President Obama would request as part of the agreement. This has made Senator Robert Menendez (D- N.J.) sufficiently perturbed and suspicious that he has introduced legislation to extend the soon expiring sanctions over the Iranian missile research and development on Iran for another ten years as Senator Menendez is far from convinced that any progress has been or will be made as part of the current negotiations. Perhaps this should be the position of everybody else as the reassurances from Secretary Kerry and the President and his spokespersons leave much clarification and even initial information on many subjects with missile development is chief amongst them.

 

Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Iran are juxtaposed Saudi Arabia, Egypt and in a loose and unofficial manner including Israel. The problem is most obvious in Yemen where Iranian backed and armed Houthis are in an open civil war for the control of Yemen now mostly attempting to complete their takeover by solidifying their presence across the south-western third of Yemen, something Saudi Arabia is making particularly difficult. The Saudis are quite wary of permitting Iran from militarily threatening complete control and the ability to cause a severe blockage of trade around much of the world and particularly about European-Asian trade as well as almost one-third of the world’s oil supplies and much of Europe’s lifeline to Arabian oil. The first choke point is the Straits of Hormuz and the second is the straits named Bab-el-Mandeb that controls passage from the Red Sea and Suez Canal to eventually the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean and which can be controlled from the south-western-most point in Yemen which remains just beyond Iranian reach for the time being. Saudi Arabia and Egypt have vested interests in the Bab-el-Mandeb waterway remaining open and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation nations have a vested interest in keeping the Straits of Hormuz clear and freely operating. Israel additionally has a vested interest in keeping Bab-el-Mandeb open as all trade out of Eilat’s ports in this southern-most city in all of Israel and major shipping point to Asia, something many believe is at the heart of the future of Israel, and who would even dare to challenge that. Further, having Yemen under the influence of Iran and with that, the potential of Iran to furtively place some special units from the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps) into Yemen to spearhead an invasion into Saudi Arabia’s underbelly and then once the Saudis had dispatch troops to guard the southern border, then an Iranian led revolt by the Shiites who mostly live in the north-east of Saudi Arabia making that a second front likely tying up most of the Saudi forces making the nation susceptible to a mass Iranian assault timing all of this for during an announced exchange of forces thus allowing for Iran to at least have twice as many troops in southern Iraq than usual and also presenting a potential for turning those troops southward invading Saudi Arabia across the entirety of the border shared with Iraq where IRGC and other Iranian forces deployed to fight ISIS which has invaded much of the Syria and Iraq while making wild claims about being the heart of the next Caliphate. This would satisfy, if successful, one of the boasts Iran has regularly made about the Holy Cities, the most holy in Islam, of Mecca and Medina must be wrest from the hands of the deceivers and apostates, the Iranian Shiite name when referencing any Sunni Muslims. It would also be done in a direct challenge and risk infuriating ISIS which is also interested in the Holy Cities and would consider their being in the hands of Shiites as a moral imperative for ISIS and their Sunni Muslims to liberate them from the apostate hands of Iranian Shiites.

 

Now let us have a quick discussion of ISIS and their claims of being the next Caliphate. This claim at this early stage is a bit presumptuous though over-the-top bombastic claims such as the ISIS claim of being the new Caliphate are apparently part and parcel of the culture and thus should be read as such. Is ISIS a threat? Of course it is but keep in mind that it had originally served as the al-Qaeda branch in Iraq fighting the United States during the Second Iraq War under President George W. Bush where these al-Qaeda forces had been adequately eradicated that President Obama brought all the troops home declaring in a speech at Fort Bragg on Dec. 14, 2011 where he stated, “It’s harder to end a war than begin one. Indeed, everything that American troops have done in Iraq–all the fighting and all the dying, the bleeding and the building, and the training and the partnering–all of it has led to this moment of success. Now, Iraq is not a perfect place. It has many challenges ahead. But we’re leaving behind a sovereign, stable and self-reliant Iraq, with a representative government that was elected by its people. We’re building a new partnership between our nations. And we are ending a war not with a final battle, but with a final march toward home. This is an extraordinary achievement, nearly nine years in the making.” ISIS will remain as a problem for as long as the United States continues its little trip down memory lane returning to their isolationist roots but the sooner that there is a new President, hopefully one who realizes the role the United States played in the world as without American leadership who can the world follow? After World War II the United States dictated to its enemies as well as its friends in the world to lay down their arms as the world had to be made such that Europe would find some manner of non-belligerence and thus unable to start yet another conflagration which envelops the rest of the world endangering all. The United States was not going to allow Europe drag her into another conflict, especially when the toll for World War II was figured. Japan even went so far as to insist that they be deprived of a military force capable of attacking her neighbors be put into their new constitution. The United States also made sure to have a prolonged military presence in all of the western nations as are the Soviets in theirs behind the, Winston Churchill‘s coined phrase, ‘Iron Curtain.’ With what ISIS has claimed is their aim, perhaps a similar deal should have been placed on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) thus completely covering the lands which were affected by the war. Instead, the Middle East actually faced a difficulty forced upon them by the European powers of France, Britain, Russia and Italy after World War I named Sykes-Picot Agreement where states were carved out of the colonial areas which the European powers had controlled for over two centuries. These states looked, for all intents and purposes, as randomly drawn but further delving into the agreement it becomes obvious that where the lines were less important than was repaying certain promises and not others and leaving states which could never function as normal nations as their citizenry were from different factions which would require a strong and somewhat viscous dictator more than a caring leader. Iran was fortunate enough to remain unchanged as she had remained Persia and beyond the colonial disciplines of the European overlords. This is one area where ISIS has gotten things correct, Sykes-Picot was a disaster needing remedial action, though combining all into one homogenous Caliphate where the people, more likely subjects, would all need to meet a purity test or face death or reeducation. ISIS has risen to prominence largely due to the entirety of the MENA regions being unstable, surprise-surprise, which had come partially from the mess put in place after World War I. In many ways, by not arranging to have the nations covering individual areas such as an area for the Kurds even named Kurdistan, and unifying Sunni Areas separate from Shia areas, and place borders respecting tribal areas and allowing the people to make suggestions and using them wisely, not nearly random large nations which would be so consumed by inner strife that they would be unable to mount external troubles, which also did not work as we saw with the decade of war between Iraq and Iran. This entire false drawing of nations was doomed to fail and produce an even stronger order which would eventually reunite many of the Islamic Arabs into a larger and ready to conquer group, it is just ISIS will not be that group as it currently operates. There will eventually be a leader who will find the chord which will bring people to their cause far more willingly and not by force and threat of arms. First, the MENA must find their way through this current crisis and possibly agree to redraw the lines across the Middle East divided by natural lines which will produce a more homogeneous populace for each state so that it can function as an economic unit more than a military unit as the Middle East itself has for centuries been an area which thrived through trading between Asia and Europe which it could again find their niche as well as trading their own goods, especially petroleum which unfortunately will be a major factor in the redrawing should such take place.

 

The problem will arise due to there being vested interests and moneyed interests in controlling valuable assets, especially oil. A very large example would be Saudi Arabia which will never permit the taking of their oil fields just because the majority living there are Shiites nor would they ever release their ownership holding of Mecca and Medina even to an international Islamic trust. Iran would never allow its oil fields to be given to another group made up of Arab descendants because the major population is not Persian. Any future settlement in the MENA area is going to take some serious and strong Islamic leadership who are more interested in helping the people than they are in glorifying themselves in this life which will always have some basis in control of resources. As things stand right now there is no real nation of Syria nor is there any nation of Iraq, both are consumed in internal and external conflicts tearing them apart. There were those who called for dividing Iraq into three nations, one Sunni, one Shia, and one Kurdish. This still would not have been advantageous for the Christians and the Yazidi and other tribes with either minority Islamic sects or older religions such as those following a version of Zoroastrianism. Still, any plan was bound to hit some snags but such a division might have produced a better system that would have been better able to resist ISIS and their onslaught which currently has Sunni areas of Iraq either facing Shia vengeance or Sunni purist vengeance without any government in place of their own and no trained military as the Iraqi Army was currently majority Shia and has retreated to protect Baghdad and the Shiite south with large amounts of Iranian assistance and now apparently United States assistance in supporting the Shiite operations as the Iranian and United States troops are quartered together, have joint planning sessions and the United States arming and close air support is coordinated through the Iraqi government which is under the strict influence of the Iranian government which has left the Sunni and the Kurds out in the cold and on their own. This has produced much more serious consequences for the Sunni who had depended on the Iraqi government and military for their protection which has left them at the mercies of whichever force has control of their lives each hour while the Kurds far back even during the United States military occupation after removing Saddam Hussein from power had become a semi-autonomous region with their own militias and governance allowing them to survive without any assistance from the Iraqi government, military or otherwise. The Kurds have become a safe haven for the minorities and have provided better and more varied protection for minorities than the United States and their supported Shiite government in the south leaving the Sunni completely out in the cold. What can be done to settle the problems in the MENA regions will take somebody with a plan which answers the many difficulties such would involve and the means of enforcing such against vested interests that would be less than advantageous for the population. The people need to be the primary concern and their needs must be the overriding priority forcing the drawing of any future borders. There must not be any restrictions as to the number of states, their interactive cooperation and other concerns. It is likely that a loose federation will prove the best solution, I am just glad that I do not have to find the best solution though if I find the magical resolution, I will be pushing it here where unfortunately few of the really powerful people will find it, at least not as things stand or maybe I am mistaken. This will need to wait for a different time. The one other area we have yet to address will not make it into this article, but I have written much already on the difficulties within Israel and the need for another brilliant solution here where none can exist that both sides would agree upon as both sides believe they have the unassailable right to all of Jerusalem if not also all of the lands themselves.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 28, 2015

The Threat Facing Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Others in Gaza

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This summer may prove to end differently than previous summers; it may end without the usual rocket attacks ramping to a crescendo eventually forcing Israel to mount an offensive to put an end to the rockets raining down on Israeli civilian areas. This came to mind that the summer rocket season may have started as a rocket was fired into Israel instigating an Israeli response. Those of us who follow the news in Israel are well attuned to the Hamas and friends usual offensive play out. It starts with a single rocket followed by an arrest to show the European and other Western media that Hamas is a real governing body that does what they can to interdict terrorist activities, especially rockets launched into Israel. There will be a few weeks where one or two rockets are fired on Israel with a smattering of arrests of supposed rocket launchers. The one item missing from actual governance is there are never any arrests of those running the production of the rockets. Also, before launching at Israel, Hamas holds some tests firings into the Mediterranean Sea of their newest rocket designs to test their accuracy and range. If this ends up being a normal summer, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah and the rest will start to fire a rocket a day after the first few weeks of slowly ramped up rocket firing into Israel. Within the next three weeks there will be increases in rocket launches into Israel initially forcing Israel to deploy Iron Dome interception batteries around the civilian areas to protect the population. The launches soon reach tens of rockets per day to eventually hundreds of rockets, many fired in barrages, eventually forcing an Israeli military response into Gaza. Then will begin the Great Hypocrisy.

 

The comparison is easy to make if the media were not attempting to sensationalize the story and make it all about how Israel is causing disproportional civilian casualties. There will be daily releases of each day’s body count as well as a running body count intended to depict Israel as inflicting such harm while there really was no need as virtually no Israeli had been harmed by anything Hamas, Islamic Jihad et al had done. So what if a few rockets are launched at the Israelis as most do not strike built up areas and those that might are intercepted with amazing success by the Iron Dome systems. That lead story sets up the body count comparisons. So, exactly what causes such a high body count within Gaza and such a comparatively low casualty count in Israel? Israel has an extensive warning Code Red System in place where as soon as rockets are fired, using advanced tracking radars the Israelis plot its most probable strike profile and then sound Code Red alarms off in any area which potentially could be struck and the Israelis head into shelters and safe rooms until the threat subsides. This alone would make for a minimized number of casualties within Israel. Secondly, Israel deploys the Iron Dome Intercept Systems around the civilian areas where it will serve the most effective. These systems track the rockets very carefully and can with great accuracy compute their trajectory and determine whether or not each rocket will strike within urban or other populated areas. These systems will compute which battery needs to intercept rockets determined to strike populated areas and then the Iron Domes fire an intercept rocket and intercept the rockets with an unbelievable over ninety percent success rate thus adding another layer of protection.

 

On the Hamas ruled Gaza areas the story is quite different. The first thing to remember is that Israel pulled every Israeli civilian, police and military personnel out of Gaza during the disengagement intended to permit the Arab Palestinian Authority, their presumed governance, to take control of the area and prove their ability to run an efficient governance. This experiment gave almost immediate results which were less than promising as the well-armed and United States trained Arab Palestinian Authority armed forces were unable to prevent the Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other terror entities from launching a coup which sent the Arab Palestinian Authority troops running for their lives into Israel and eventually back to their protected areas in Judea and Samaria. The showing of force put up by the Arab Palestinian Authority troops who were trained in Jordan by United States Special Forces and armed with modern weapons by the United States proved to be of little value when it came to protecting Gaza and its Arab Palestinian Authority governance. They were almost as pitiful as the Iraqi troops have proved in fighting ISIS, and this may prove problematic in the near future. This means that Gaza is a self-ruled entity which is governed by a coalition of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other terrorist representatives who are intentionally kept separate from the actual terror acts they willingly permit to be launched and financed by the Gaza leadership, which is only loosely allied with the actual government. So, we need to remember two items. First is that Gaza has been a separate area outside of any Israeli influence since the disengagement in August of 2005. Second is that Gaza has its protection and governance provided by terrorist government provided mostly by Hamas and Islamic Jihad which also runs their police and military units as well.

 

With Hamas and Islamic Jihad responsible for protecting the civilian population of Gaza, one might inquire exactly what kind of protection is provided by their governing bodies and their military forces which term is loosely applied to the terrorist forces which wear face concealing ski masks and often parade through Gaza City shooting AK 47s and other weapons into the air as a show of force and meant to impress upon the civilians exactly who is in charge in Gaza, as if they need constant reminders and cowing. Hamas, Islamic Jihad and company (HIJ) have an extremely unique system in place to protect the Arab and other civilians within their jurisdiction; they initially rely on Israel taking extreme care in choosing their targets when they strike such that the possibilities for human losses are minimized. The recent strike was a perfect example as Israel struck a rocket making facility and storage area, otherwise known as a Hamas government building of importance, at an hour which was most likely to prove it to be unmanned and thus having the least possibility for civilian casualties. This is the first line of protection provided by Hamas, Islamic Jihad and company, a complete reliance that Israel will minimize the possibility of civilian casualties. It must be noted that should this actually highly effective manner in which Israel provides for the safety of the Arab population in Gaza, then it can be counted on that there will be press conferences and memos sent to every media agency listing the name, number of unfortunates who now have no means of support and everything required for a fully fleshed out story about the horrors under these incessant Israeli strikes which appear to have no rhyme or reason and just come out of the blue. This rendition of the events will be copied studiously by the reporters as they would not want to have to explain to HIJ how and why their story did not include the entirety of the story line and Heaven forbid should the fact that the responses by Israel are to the provocations of the rockets raining down on their civilian populations. It can never be reported that HIJ have been launching rockets into Israel targeting civilian targets in hopes of maximizing casualties. If it proves necessary to report that HIJ have been firing rockets into Israel, such mention must come after the coverage of the Israeli strike and be framed as much as possible as a retaliatory strike for the Israeli initialized cycle of violence. HIJ know exactly what story must be made the central pillar of the coverage and this is largely predicated on the idea that Israel started the violence, while Arabs are being murdered by Israeli strikes there have been almost no Israeli casualties and most hypocritical is that Israel has not positioned any of the Iron Dome batteries in Gaza to protect the civilians in Gaza, especially in Gaza City and the refugee camp located on the outskirts of Gaza City. There is also never any question of why there are Arab refugees held in Gaza as refugees but not permitted citizenship or freedom, very peculiar, are not these so-called refugees part of the Arab Palestinian population which needs to be repatriated with the rest of the Arab Palestinian population such as that of Gaza? Sometimes one just has to go, ‘Huh??!??’

 

Once the rocket fire by HIJ out of Gaza and striking in Israel with many targeted at civilian population centers and Israel is launching return fire with the intent of destroying the launch site, then HIJ immediately apply their second level of protection for their Arab population. This is a very interesting system used by HIJ as it makes one wonder how it is supposed to minimize the number of Arab residents injured or killed, especially children, during periods of exchanges of fire with the Israelis using highly accurate artillery in counter-fire modality. Counter-fire modality is a highly technological achievement which can be found in the arsenals of most advanced nations. The manner in which this functions is almost automatic and with minimal human input other than to interdict to prevent a return fire for some reason. The event train of counter-fire technology is very simple to explain and much harder to accomplish. Upon the firing of a rocket, artillery round or mortar fired the radars intercept its trajectory and which type of projectile is being tracked. These radar systems are so pin-point accurate in their calculations and so fast that human response of similar complexity would take hours, but that is why we have computers and advanced systems. The computers use the trajectory and type of projectile to compute both its likely area it will strike and even more accurately the exact location from which it was fired. This second set of coordinates are then automatically fed to the fire and control module of an artillery piece which then targets the location and fires a return round meant to destroy the firing location and equipment preventing its further use. All of this computing, targeting and firing of the return counter-fire takes less than fifteen seconds until the computed and counter-fired round strike its target. The HIJ system employed to prevent casualties is allowing and even encouraging children, often under age ten, to stand around the firing battery so they can see how it works. This evil use of children just to provide media coverage pictures of a slaughter, the more gruesome the better and children killed is putting the cherry on top as such guarantees front page top of the fold coverage of the inhuman carnage caused by Israel. The eventual story and caption to the article will completely ignore the five ton artillery piece having been rendered a twisted wreck at the center of the carnage as the pictures will be ever so carefully framed so as to not include the weapons which was central to the attack.

 

The hypocritical and inhuman use of women and children goes much further. When HIJ knows of a coming Israeli air strike, something requiring the most minimal of intelligence work as the Israelis will first send a drone or strike aircraft to pass over the location and environment around it dropping leaflets warning of the coming air strike advising the people to be elsewhere for the immediate future. Upon such warnings the HIJ controlled radio station will make a call for women and children to protect the building or whatever target by ringing the roof or target location with their bodies such that upon reaching the location to make the strike the IDF pilot will see the civilians and abort the strike mission. Once again HIJ is depending on the humanity of the Israeli soldiers and airmen and directly risking their civilians’ lives. Another defense of the people provided by the HIJ leadership is their placements of their rocket launchers, mortar tubes and artillery pieces. It is a rule of warfare to place such tools of war distant from places where civilians are gathered, especially if such place is purported to be a safe zone by their government, but HIJ commanders and operatives intentionally place these weapon systems adjacent to civilian designated shelters counting on the human carnage which such acts potentially can cause when counter-fire systems are being utilized by the other side, a practice often employed by forces to destroy such enemy position and a known system used by Israel. The HIJ forces have been known to place rocket and mortar launching systems on the roof of buildings being utilized for displaced civilians to be cared for, schools and even hospitals. Israeli counter-fire systems are given the coordinates for schools and hospitals and these locations and close proximity require a human to interject and permit such strikes only if the location has multiple launchers or other extenuating circumstances which might make firing necessary. These officers make their decisions with the full knowledge that every such decision will be reviewed by a panel of ranking officers which will include non-infantry and line officers and may include lawyers from the JAG offices. Such consideration likely caution the officers making such decisions to opt for the most passive of responses and not risk a strike going bad.

 

The final hypocrisy is the HIJ commanders place the majority of their troops and leadership underground in their bunker and tunnel systems. If instead of being utilized to strike more effectively at the Israelis the HIJ commanders would allow for Gazans to also take refuge in these sheltered areas there would be far fewer civilian casualties. Unfortunately the HIJ commanders would rather have a larger than necessary body count so as to be able to point to the fact that the Gazans have died as a result of Israeli actions than have Israelis died from anything HIJ had succeeded in doing. The implication is that Israel does not care and ruthlessly murders innocent Arab Gazans as all one need do is view the disparity in the numbers of casualties. Never mind that the Israeli forces attained the highest percentage of combatant to civilian ratio than any other modern day army in recent history and far superior ratio than the drone strikes ordered by United States Presidents Bush or Obama where the ratios approached nine-to-one civilian to combatant kill ratios. That is nine civilians killed for every combatant killed in the United States drone strike program since 2010 while during Protective Edge Israeli actions in Gaza killed at a one-to-one ratio, a far better average than the United States drone strikes which President Obama had lauded as one of the best and most effective programs available to strike terror targets. Meanwhile, a review of the media coverage of the Protective Edge military intervention from last summer we find some telling trends. The main theme was ‘disproportionality’ which accused Israel of using disproportionate force. This was a farce in that the HIJ forces fired a greater number of rockets, artillery and mortar rounds intended for Israeli population centers than Israel fired or bombed in Gaza. Israeli strikes were clearly intended for military targets and safeguards were taken in an attempt to minimize civilian casualties in Gaza. It was in order to minimize Civilian casualties which led to the Israeli ground troops going into Gaza rather than continuing to use aircraft and counter-fire ordinance. Had Israel honestly not cared about loss of life in Gaza she could have indiscriminately fired into Gaza City where most of the HIJ firing locations were placed and simply leveled all of Gaza city and the bordering refugee camp, Arab Palestinian refugee camp. Israel did not need to send her young men into urban areas to fight the most dangerous and difficult of all forms of warfare. This also is why the Arab casualty count was so high and needlessly so. Despite the lie that Gaza is so heavily populated that HIJ forces have no choice but to fire from urban areas as no open areas exist, this is disproven when one also remembers that the HIJ spokespeople often criticize Israel for not doing enough to allow for the Gazan farmers to get their produce to market. Farmers? That means farms, right? That means open fields if I remember what farming requires. We covered this in the article “Gaza, Hamas, Corrected Falsehoods, Frightening Realities”. There is a short video exposing the placement of rocket launching sites to endanger civilians, this time reporters staying in one of Gaza’s hotels, and has a small map showing the urban areas versus the open areas where according to the rules of war is where one is supposed to place their artillery, rockets and mortar tubes.

 

But there may be a wholly different war this summer and it has nothing at all to do with Israel initially. There have been threats against Hamas, which will mean all of HIJ, made by ISIS claiming that they have been too light and easy in their so-called war with Israel. That is ISIS’s complaint, not mine. ISIS has promised HIJ that they will soon be replaced by real Islamic warriors who fight for the glory of Allah, not wimps such as those forces so ineffective against Israel who are unable of even keeping up a continuous level of assault. So, ISIS is threatening to come in and firstly make sure that the Gazans and the members of HIJ meet the strict standards if ISIS in their observance of the proper and righteous form purported by ISIS. What will be interesting should this calamity strike the people of Gaza, I am less concerned about the holy and Islamic members of HIJ as their stringent observance of Islam has to be beyond question, at least which is what I have understood their statements to prove. Maybe ISIS has a different measure of Islamic purity than the various members of HIJ, though I am a bit concerned for the members of the nationalist and secular Fatah members. There is a definitive possibility that ISIS will arrive just in time to judge the efforts made by HIJ as they should be getting close to hitting their stride and launching over a hundred projectiles a day into Israel. Past experience has taught the world that this is where Israel draws the line, seventy-five or so missiles a day, potentially understandable, moving towards one-hundred, not as easily explained away and may require avoiding public appearances and microphones, over one-hundred a day, well now you’ve gone and gotten Israeli leaders undivided attention. This will be made obvious as speeches will ring forth from the podium of the Knesset. You will know you are in a dire situation when the Prime Minister takes to the floor and demands an end to the rockets raining from Gaza or else. After that warning a simple launching of that two-hundred-fiftieth rocket and loose the IDF and the dogs of war. Then again, ISIS might actually mean that their forces in the Sinai Peninsula are going to be tasked with replacing HIJ this summer. They might need Gaza to hide from the Egyptian forces which Egyptian President Sisi (the opposite of ISIS) is reaching the end of his rope, a wholly different meaning than that will have for former Egyptian President Morsi in the near future. ISIS forces may believe they can hide in Gaza as that would place them beyond the reach of the Egyptian army, or at least that may be their assumption. Either way it sounds like HIJ may have some real problems heading their way and then ISIS will find that should Egyptian President Sisi really wish to strike them, their being in Gaza will be of no help as Israel will have no complaints for Egypt sweeping ISIS from Gaza would probably be looked upon favorably by the Israeli government. They might even place the IDF strategically around Gaza just to assure that no ISIS fighters or members of HIJ cross into Israel seeking sanctuary. Perhaps a sign put in place stating ‘No Vacancies’ would be helpful. Looks like any way one slices it, Gaza is in for a rough and tumble summer.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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