Netanyahu Coalition is Ungovernable

 

Prime Minister Netanyahu was able to form a government, but with just a bare bones, slim and minimum sixty-one Ministers. The numbers break down as such; Likud is the predominant party by a mile with their thirty Ministers followed by Kulanu, a new party with ten Ministers along with Shas with seven Ministers and United Torah Judaism with six Ministers and the last party joining at the eleventh hour, Jewish Home with their eight Ministers. Tallied up that is

30 + 10 + 7 + 6 + 8 = 61

The minimum number necessary to hold a majority of the one-hundred-twenty seat Knesset. Having the minimum numbers Netanyahu will likely make some deals to secure three or four additional Ministers who will agree to bolster the coalition though unspoken as their Party did not accept joining the coalition for whatever reasons, some strictly political and others purely tactical and still others a combination of reasons including posturing. There are some still waiting for Yisrael Beiteinu headed by Avigdor Lieberman to potentially join or offer to be the saving cushion with its six Ministers able to make-up for some wayward coalition members on certain votes thus threatening the coalition. Needless to point out, Prime Minister Netanyahu has cobbled together a coalition which as it stands cannot govern for very long before any single party or even an internal faction within Likud could force a crisis and bring down the government. Should the coalition fail then President Reuven Rivlin could call for snap elections to be held again giving an even shorter campaign cycle bringing Israelis back to the polls yet another time so quickly. The turnout for another government would likely have a lower turnout potentially changing the mix of parties as Israelis would measure their votes against the results of the recently past elections where many Israelis were less than thrilled with the results.

 

Still, do not expect overt changes but rather a refining of the vote with the potential for increases in the portions for Jewish Home, Kulanu and Yisrael Beiteinu. On the other hand, the protestations and self-important tantrums thrown by Yair Lapid could affect the numbers received by his Yesh Atid Party placing some of his eleven Ministers vulnerable to lost support. New elections might bring into play the joint parties of Yachad and Otzma Yehudit which missed making Knesset by the slimmest of margins. New elections could produce a far stronger Jewish Home which was on the mend in the final days of the election but never did quite make it all the way back to the high-points it had hit earlier in many polls. Additionally, one might expect to see Yachad and Otzma Yehudit make it past threshold which would bring a change in the end total results as Yachad and Otzma Yehudit would easily reach four and potentially higher as they would be able to prevent some of the rumored destruction of their ballots and also such simple things as swapping out their ballots with others and other such tricks and deceptions. It could also be predicted that the Zionist Union Party would split back to their two parties, the Labor Party and Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah Party. While Hatnuah Party would likely not come even remotely close to breaking the minimum and would not make the Knesset, the split might make the Labor Party cleaner and without Tzipi Livni it would potentially garner two or three additional seats. Meretz and the Joint Arab List would each remain the same of gain or lose a single seat.

 

The question of the hour is how long the slender coalition can hold together when all it would take is a protest by the single Minister protesting to bring down the coalition. There have already been some rumblings of discontent within Likud by some of the Ministers who had their hearts set on gaining some of the Ministerships which ended up being given to the joining coalition members as they demanded those Ministerial positions from which they could wield the power of the department which would have the greatest and most direct influence in addressing their promises from the elections. The coalition coming out of the gate will likely be tested potentially by opposition members. Yair Lapid has already threatened to take the current coalition to court as it has more Ministerial positions which is one item which always seems to grow and is fortunately cut back every so often; after all, do we really want these politicians thinking they are more important than they actually are? This government is inherently unstable which will make for a wild ride while watching for what will be the defining moment when it becomes obviously impossible to hold the coalition together any longer. Sometimes it is the most fragile of coalitions which end up holding together for the longest amount of time as the members realize exactly how fragile their rule is and treat it as the vital but fragile thing as it really is. Still, there are going to be a good number of members of the opposition who see this tight race where the Prime Minister was only capable forming the most delicate of beast of a coalition.

 

The one item such a coalition, constantly under threat of collapsing, gives the Prime Minister a perfect reason to state that this is not the time to rock the boat and press through any peace initiatives from the outside world. All it would take to shoot down any demands for Israel to make additional sacrifices for peace is a single person threatening to leave the coalition should such a proposition even be introduced, let alone actually forced through the Knesset. This is already understood by even the most ignorant and blind fool, yet I might bet that such a proposition will not prevent the Europeans and President Obama from making just such demands as it does not cost them any lost sleep if the Israeli government should collapse as the sole purpose there is an Israeli government, according to too many people both within and outside of Israel, is to make sacrifices before the Arab Palestinian Authority as such sacrifices are the sole item expected from Israel and thus from her government no matter the size or opposition to such demands. The simple and obvious fact that there are members of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s own Likud Party who have threatened to vote against or resign from their positions, not to mention the entirety of the Jewish Home delegation would hopefully bolt from the coalition if such a vote in favor of such were demanded from them.

 

Hopefully this slim coalition can hold its own against all assaults from the entire spectrum starting from within the government and reaching as far as Turtle Bay in New York where the United Nations is located, and is just barely further than Washington D. C. and the White House. Perhaps the knowledge that the coalition is so fragile will force the Ministers within the majority to work together for the betterment of Israel. May such a government prove fortified against Israel making any sacrifices to entice the Arab representatives to come and grace us with their presence for as long as they are comfortable and then bolt from any further meetings where it is again demanded of Israel to sweeten the pot to get the Arab representatives to grace us with their presence for as long as they are comfortable and then bolt from any further meetings where it is again … No more climbing aboard the flight to the destruction of Israel and time for a new approach, annexing lands until Arabs honestly decide to enter into talks designed to end the conflict and make an agreement satisfactory with Israel otherwise Israel is satisfied with the terms and accepts granting the Arabs some adequate areas for them to have semiautonomous controls while remaining under Israeli security control and remain an integral part of Israel. There is no need or necessity which requires Israel to surrender any of the lands promised her in the San Remo Agreement and the fact Israel will permit a semi-autonomous defined region within the whole State of Israel living with in and with peace with Israel should be accepted and satisfy the world which can then go address real problems in the world. That is a stance for which this narrow coalition can unify and stand united demanding that their aspirations be included as integral to any final agreements.

 

Beyond the Cusp

Coalition Choices Will Reveal if Sacrifice to Vote Likud Was Righteous

 

If as all are assuming and Benyamin Netanyahu is chosen by President Rivlin to attempt to form a ruling coalition, the choices which Netanyahu makes, and the sacrifices he decides are either favoring his intentions or necessary for assuming power, will be scrutinized by the Religious Zionists who have already made a huge sacrifice taking away votes, mandates and eventually influence from their normative parties such as Jewish Home (: הַבַּיִת הַיְהוּדִי), Yachad (יַחַד) and any other nationalist, Zionist, religious or politically conservative party and entrusted Netanyahu and the additional Knesset Ministers to carry out their desired goals. There have been signs that Netanyahu recognizes these sacrifices but it will remain for all to witness for how long he keeps these trusts in mind and for how long, if at all, the additional Ministers remain faithful to the traditional and core principles found within the Likud foundational documents and beliefs. Some of the important trusts which Netanyahu could perform immediately after the Knesset votes affirming his coalition range from the easy, shattering the silent building freeze and allow extensive enlargement of the communities in Judea and Samaria including allowance for the seeding of new communities and industrial and other economic centers across the width and breadth of Area C and, further down the road, adding new ventures in Area B.

 

Netanyahu can alter the conversation of forming an independent Arab state by stating that Israel is willing to allow a semi-autonomous Arab entity which rules its denoted area independent of Israel as far as governing themselves much as they currently live but remaining as an autonomous entity within Israel and reliant on the IDF for any defensive requirements and restricted from acting on the international level such as making treaties with other nations or acting in ways detrimental to the needs, requirements, political policies or relations beyond those already existent within Israeli foreign policies and relations. As Prime Minister of Israel he should bring the Levy Report to the forefront of Israeli actions towards the lands of Judea and Samaria and stress the commitments that Israel expects the world to recognize as explained and set out in the report’s conclusion.

 

As Prime Minister, Netanyahu must also begin and reinforce stressing constantly Article 80 of the United Nations Charter and bring to the fore the San Remo Conference documents and surround these two legally binding principles recognized and presumably enforceable under International Law making an airtight irrevocable claim of ownership over all of Judea and Samaria as well as the rest of the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. These ideas and their implications should end any further claims that International Law forbids Israel from annexing all of Judea and Samaria as long as the Arabs residing within the annexed areas retain full religious rights, full human rights, full legal rights, and virtually any form of rights imaginable with one very important exception, they may be denied political rights. This is the situation which must be stressed due to its importance and revealing the full rights pertaining to the Israeli rights to all the lands making them not only no longer contested but that their occupation by the Arabs is illegal and that any autonomy granted to the Arabs by Israel cannot and will not be construed as allowing for an independent Arab State or any other state as the lands were preserved for the Jewish State under International Law without even a sliver of doubt or contention by any other entity.

 

During the forming of the Twentieth Knesset, Prime Minister Netanyahu must make every effort not to include Yesh Atid and thus place Yair Lapid in the opposition thus any disturbance which emanates from him will not be a direct threat to the coalition or cause the governing coalition to be dissolved. The formation of a ruling coalition which is stable and supportive of the principles which Netanyahu was elected to pursue, protect and empower should be the foremost thought and a requirement of which each party must agree to value just as stridently and with vigor equal to that used backing their primary issues without exception. Here is the list of the Parties according to ideology and probability to be included in the coalition to those expected to be relegated to the opposition: Likud – 29, Jewish Home – 8, Yisrael Beiteinu – 6, Shas – 7, United Torah Judaism – 7, Kulanu – 10, Yesh Atid – 11, Arab List – 14, Meretz – 4, Labor/Hatnua – 24. Likud could ally with their 29 mandates and add Jewish Home, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Kulanu reaching a total of 67 total seats while avoiding including Yair Lapid and his Yesh Atid. Of course should the Labor/Hatnua take the remaining mandates and swing Kulanu and they also would have over 61 mandates which makes Kulanu, or technically Yair Lapid the deciders of the results of the election and whether or not Likud is able to put together their required mandates and form a government. Hopefully Netanyahu will use the wiles and strong turnout and support for his party to form his coalition. This process will be noted and hopefully will not cause concern but what will really matter are those few items the such as honestly putting the building freeze out of our misery and permit building and allow such building in all areas of commerce, industry and residential allowing for strong and attractive communities. Then there will be the initial pressures to restart the peace process in which Netanyahu will need to bring the argument and propaganda to rest and replace it with the facts, treaties and accords which define which lands belong to whom and under, that ever so mentioned and used to bludgeon Israel, International Law which should stand firmly beside Israel and all her claims to retain all of her lands, period!

 

After establishing these two initiatives Bibi can then address the social issues with solid economic steps which are reasoned and fully debated moving ahead with measured steps and firm reliance and faith in the practices established by previous similar situations which produced the desired results. In numerous instances what may be required is for the government to get out of the way and relegate some functions to religious institutions that are better suited for some functions such as free kitchens which feed those in need of such assistance. There will also be those functions which government is best suited to solve and should act. This should come naturally to Netanyahu as he proved in a previous government when he was assigned the Economy Minister. Such problems are usually traceable to a few requirements which make achieving a goal which would protect the poor and provide relief with minimal red tape. The same is true of many items burdening the Middle Class. As stated, Netanyahu will be facing the closest scrutiny from more than the usual entities as he received a strong mandate from people outside his party and beyond his base and these people have known grievances and demands and they will watch sitting on nervous expectations that had best be addressed with a sense of urgency. So, as said all too often after elections, we will wait and see with open minds and soaring hearts all kept within reason by good Jewish kidneys. (Oh yes, we had a whole article using the Biblical reference by King David to kidneys and their blessings and importance in so many ways, honest.)

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Israel Elections are Upon Us Tomorrow

 

Now it is weeks, though it seems like years, since the government was dissolved and it is March 16, 2015, the day before elections. When these elections were called by then Prime Minister Netanyahu and the right wing Likud and Jewish Home voting with the opposition to dissolve the Knesset, the going media commentary reported the coming floodgates being opened and the guarantee that Likud and a coalition of purely right wing parties would win well over the necessary sixty-one mandates and not need to include what had proved to be the troublesome egoistic parties of Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua (The Party) or Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid (There is a Future) in the coalition. This was presumed to permit the formed right wing, nationalist and Zionist coalition free of the attempts to form a coalition cutting out Likud, Jewish Home and including Labor and other parties finding a coalition to assume power without any elections, an unprecedented virtual coup by Lapid and possibly Livni. The tenor of the campaigns has revealed the designs on power and the Prime Minister’s seat by Livni and Lapid have been thoroughly revealed beyond any doubt. Tzipi Livni forged a coalition with Labor in order to guarantee her Hatnua Party inclusion in the next government despite it polling beneath threshold and has even finagled to share the Prime Ministership with Yitzhak Hertzog despite not having the backing from the public warranting her attaining such an importance while Lapid made some commentary that should he garner the support he dreams his Yesh Atid Party will garner then he had already figured how he could form a coalition as well placing him in the Prime Minister’s chair. The biggest change since the new elections were called has been the media’s slanted coverage and misrepresenting positions and using questionable polling have potentially drawn the results of the election into question and currently the leftist media have placed the Labor Hatnua misnamed “Zionist Camp” as having a comfortable lead and claiming that Likud and Netanyahu are sinking and soon to be thrown from power. The truth be told, the future of Israel will rest on the next government coalition’s ability to hold the line and resist the growing pressures and demands from United States President Obama and his administration’s attempts to require Israel to return to the pre-Six Day War lines leaving half of Jerusalem and all of Gaza, Judea and Samaria presumably under the rule of the unity Fatah-Hamas-Islamic Jihad governance. Such would place virtually all Jewish holy sites beyond Israeli borders and thus not only beyond the reach of any Jew to visit but also likely to be just as destroyed and razed as if these holy sites were surrendered to ISIS. But the real question is what exactly are the Israeli elections being held tomorrow actually addressing beyond who becomes Prime Minister and who would make the best Prime Minister from those who actually might have sufficient mandates to form a coalition, Tzipi Livni/Yitzhak Hertzog power sharing of two years each, Benyamin Netanyahu, Yair Lapid, the leaders of what is referred to as the Arab Block or Naftali Bennett?

 

Before anything can be considered, we need to define the greatest challenge which the new incoming Prime Minister will face once a coalition has been formed. Oddly enough the greatest challenges the next Prime Minister will face will not come out of Europe, from the Unity Government of Fatah/Hamas/Islamic Jihad, from the BDS (Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions) movement, nor from the United Nations. The challenge will come from what many, including many who desire to be the next Prime Minister, believe to be the closest of Israeli allies, the United States. The good news is that the threat coming from the United States does not have universal acceptance as the Congress remains strongly allied and friendly and supportive of Israel though a few too many actually still believe in the two state solution and the Oslo Accords, nor does the threat come from the majority of Americans where Israel still received support by over a ratio of two to one and still approaching three to one. The menacing threats against Israel are formidable and very adept at arousing support from thousands who will be available to man the parapets and be bussed all the way across the country when called upon. These forces came out from coast to coast and north to south to protest presumably racist police presumably having targeted and murdered a gentle giant in Ferguson, Missouri and then in another confrontation in New York City and these demonstrations have been sustained for months even despite the murder of two police sitting in their cruiser in New York and the shooting and severely injured two police standing in front of the Ferguson police station monitoring the protest taking place across the street. The grand juries in both cases found the police not to be at fault and to have acted within the guidelines of their departments and not to have committed any criminal acts. So, we have already witnessed the ability of President Obama and the assistance by Attorney General Holder generating protests despite the innocence of the police even after the evidence being combed through with a very fine toothed comb and still not establishing any culpability of the police. The only accusation they were able to uncover was what was referred to as “Disparate Impact” of arrests and traffic stops, a statistical fact which would very probably be true in virtually every police department with more than twelve officers. Read the article on >a href=http://jewishworldreview.com/cols/sowell031015.php3 target=blank>“Disparate Impact” by Thomas Sowell>/a> for some depth and truths as only he is able to explain and so far better than my modest attempts.

 

The ability of the Community Organizer in Chief and his Attorney Instigator along with such supporting advisors such as Samantha Power, Susan Rice, new Middle East National Security Council appointment, Robert Malley, are all known for their antipathy towards Israel and have other fellow travelers with some of them even being Jews who are more close with their progressive politics than they are to supporting Israel will present a formidable assault team just waiting for the new Israeli government before they launch their broadsides. The appointment of new Middle East National Security Council Advisor Robert Malley was the final straw which removed all doubt of where President Obama was intending to head concerning all things Israel. Looking back all the way to 2008 and Senator Obama’s initial run for the Presidency and we find his appointing Robert Malley to his foreign advisory team and then firing him shortly thereafter due to protestations from numerous Jewish organizations. When Robert Malley was appointed subsequently to head the foreign relations with Iraq and Iran President Obama made assurances to numerous progressive but still pro-Israel organizations and groups that Malley would be restrained from and never deal with anything concerning Israel. Now that the Jewish vote cannot affect President Obama as all elections are gone and he is in the home stretch so is free to do as he pleases and no longer care whose toes he treads or even stomps on while he finally can act to take out those he wishes to destroy but was unable before to act too overtly. Israel is at the head of that list and is also partially behind the leniency being shown the Iranian nuclear program as President Obama has been supportive the leader of the Shiite world and plans on crowning Iran as the new hegemonic power in the Middle East supplanting both Egypt and Saudi Arabia as well as allowing Iran to be the nuclear balance against Israel. This is behind his plans to make any agreement with Iran as an executive agreement which will be considered a guideline which will be considered to be advisory and not binding thus not a treaty as much as an understanding such that President Obama will claim he can bypass Senate ratification as this is not a treaty or any other binding agreement covered by the Constitution of the United States. This was the advisory out of Iran in response to Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton’s open letter to Iran’s leaders signed by forty-six Senate Republicans where they basically echoed exactly the points made by President Obama about why the Congress, even the Senate or especially the Senate, will have absolutely no say in what is agreed upon in the P5+1 and Iran talks. President Obama has now not only gone to the extreme in his desire to remove Congress from any actions he desires to take but has dived into the deep end in challenging the Constitutional restraints presumably limiting President Obama in his final two years. This bodes poorly for Israel as no matter whom Israel elects and President Reuven Rivlin chooses to form a coalition and succeeds in doing so.

 

President Obama announced his intentions almost as soon as he took office when he stated that the solution of the Arab-Israeli conflict would be the forming of an Arab State using the Green Line, the 1949 Armistice line, as the border. President Obama then forced a building freeze on Prime Minister Netanyahu which officially lasted for ten months but has unofficially continued ever since with announcements for tenders to build but somehow the required documents or authorizations always manage to get hung-up and the structures never get built. There has been little if any delay in the destruction of Jewish buildings ordered by the Supreme Court though Arab buildings with similar orders seldom have the demolitions carried out. During the war in Gaza against Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which was brought on by the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli youths followed soon thereafter by daily increased rocket and mortar attacks on the Israeli southern towns and kibbutzim closest to Gaza with the range of attacks growing daily as well until they struck Tel Aviv, then began the war as such attacks had to be halted, President Obama decided that a single ground-to-ground rocket which landed approximately half a mile south of Ben Gurion International Airport was sufficient a threat to cancel all flights by United States carriers from entering Israeli airspace thus closing the airport. A number of European nations also forbid their airlines from using Ben Gurion International Airport. These shuttering of Israeli airspace was despite the knowledge that there was an Iron Dome placed south of the airport plus two other Iron Dome units in the proximity guarding Tel Aviv and Jerusalem which made it next to impossible for anything launched from Gaza of threatening any airliners. There was also the additional requirement inserted between the United States and Israeli militaries which under war conditions are by treaty allowed to resupply Israeli needs straight military to military without need of further validation then being required to receive State Department approval which prevented any resupply of Israel during the conflict in Gaza. This was a breach of treaty and an illegal act which President Obama simply ignored the law of the land as treaties take on once ratified. This exhibits that President Obama has no regard for treaties, agreements, requirements of the United States Constitution or the need to include Congress in any action where such is required by that same Constitution and thus is ruling as if he were Emperor Imperialist of the United States and placing himself above the law. These acts by President Obama are setting precedents should he be permitted such and allowed to trample the Constitution and its limitations on Presidential power that will in the future allow for the destruction of the rule of law and replace it with an imperial presidency which will further take the United States into being under the rule of man, a very dangerous place. This is exactly how President Obama plans on acting, with complete contempt for Congress and with impunity when it comes to empowering Iran and destroying Israel in every way possible and simply daring the Congress to stop his actions.

 

President Obama will also make it known to Arab leadership that should they desire to take Israel before the Security Council that the United States is prepared to abstain from and vote and will withhold its veto whenever able and that they may count on such being the default position of the United States for the remainder of his term in office. This leads Israel to a very dangerous place where if those who have made it their campaign promise and predicated their every statement to promising to repair any supposed damage which Prime Minister Netanyahu may have caused between the Israeli government and the administration of President Barack Obama and by working with President Obama in establishing the two state solution by whatever means are required. These statements have been issued by many who are referred to most often as centrists or center left but not any referred to as far right wing or nationalist backers of the settlements causing an impediment of peace. One must wonder as to what those supporting the two state solution plan on doing should Mahmoud Abbas refuse to make peace unless a complete return to the Green Line with no swaps and a total right of return as well, will they grant the whole set of demands when President Obama advises that they accept these terms as it will be worth doing so as it will finally bring peace. There have been a few statements from Yitzhak Hertzog where he parroted the answers given by Benyamin Netanyahu when they appeared to a debate between them just this weekend, but I have doubts that Hertzog would really stick to such a position if President Obama demanded he surrender all of East Jerusalem as well as Judea and Samaria while accepting five or more million refugees from all the refugee camps and probably beyond as any Syrian refugee who might find an opening to claim refugee status not from Syria but from the Palestinian refugee centers which were in Syria before the civil war. Such an opening if permitted could add near countless refugees being foist upon Israel drowning Israel with Arab refugees who would vote Israel out of being a Jewish state at the very next elections. Probably the best Prime Minister Israel might elect would be a brick wall or whoever comes closest to resembling a brick wall when it comes to surrender to the whims and wiles of President Obama. The unfortunate truth is that the President of the United States would allow Israel’s complete and utter destruction as to it being the homeland of the Jews, and as such, a Jewish State. As to who might be such a person, well, that will be left to the Israeli voters tomorrow and the one promise is that, whoever is chosen to form a coalition will be forming the fate of Israel and the Jewish people in their hands, may they be capable hands guided by G0d and may they be girded with the truth, that by International Law and treaty the lands from the west bank of the Jordan River to the beaches on the Mediterranean Sea, every square millimeter of lands belong to Israel and though all other rights are granted to the inhabitants, the Israeli government is empowered to decide who is granted political power and thus may vote in Israeli elections. This was decided by the fifty-two nations unanimously, the entirety of the League of Nations, in 1921 with the ratification of the San Remo Conference which was further validated by the United Nations Charter Article 80 which recognized the Mandates and all other standing treaties and conferences from the League of Nations remained valid and fully applicable and backed by the United Nations as if enacted by that body as well. Perhaps whoever becomes the next Prime Minister of Israel when standing before the United Nations General Assembly next fall, assuming the next government makes it that far, can read to the assembled the contents of the San Remo Conference and remind them of Article 80 of the United Nations Charter and thus put an end to this futile debate which is invalid simply due to International Law which so many claim to desire. Perhaps it is time to give them the truths about International Law and how it may not be the friend they think it be.

 

Beyond the Cusp