Beyond the Cusp

June 3, 2016

Weeds in the MENA Garden

 

 

If one were to ask the European Union, the United States, the United Nations and the world media who is responsible for the unrest throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) the resounding echoes would continue to scream Israel for likely the rest of eternity, but is that an honest assessment or simply a knee jerk automatic programed response spurred by anti-Israel, anti-Zionist, anti-Semitic hatreds? The easiest way to tell would be to take a quick whirl around the MENA nations and see what the truth is. Let us start our excursion at the western edge and head to the east and see what we will see.

 

A map of MENA nations is almost up to date and is only missing the Sudan, and as the Sudan was split after years of tribal and religious violence, South Sudan; and some go so far as to include Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Djibouti, Eretria, and Somalia.

A map of MENA nations is almost up to date and is only missing the Sudan, and as the Sudan was split after years of tribal and religious violence, South Sudan; and some go so far as to include Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Djibouti, Eretria, and Somalia.

 

Coming into the North of Africa from the Atlantic Ocean the first country we would visit would be Western Sahara where we would find Morocco has occupied Western Sahara since 1975 in violation of resolutions by the United Nations Security Council and International Court of Justice ruling. Any efforts to dislodge Morocco from Western Sahara have been blocked directly by the United States whose full support of the Moroccan occupation shows no sign of relenting. The conflict reemerged as the “Independence Intifada” in 2005 which has remained as depicted in map below. Despite numerous efforts to defuse the situation the standoff remains.

 

Occupied Western Sahara  by Morocco Shaded Area  and Western Sahara Unshaded

Occupied Western Sahara
by Morocco Shaded Area
and Western Sahara Unshaded

 

Continuing on from the Morocco-Western Sahara conflict we next visit Mauritania which has had a rocky recent history including two military coups, the first was in 2005 followed eventually by elections for a new president in 2007 followed by the second coup in 2008. General Abdul Aziz took power after the coup but found the nation had few supporters amongst them predominantly were Morocco, Libya and Iran while the United States and European nations rejected the legitimacy of the coup continuing to refer to Abdallahi as the legitimate president of Mauritania. After the resignation of Abdallahi there were elections which allowed Abdel Aziz to become the civilian president. In February 2011 there were waves of unrest as the Arab Spring spread to Mauritania demanding President Mohamed Abdel Aziz institute political, economic, and legal reforms. The unrest culminated in April of 2012 as thousands of people in Mauritania attended demonstrations in the capital calling for President Mohamed Abdel Aziz to resign. Currently the nation is under military rule with the legal system based on Islam and Sharia.

 

Heading across the southern end the picture in Mali, Niger and Chad is the constant internal strife between Christian governments and Islamic uprisings with much of the major horrific attacks conducted by the terrorist group Boko Haram which literally means Western education is forbidden. Boko Haram follows Saudi Wahhabism and has pledged their loyalty to the Islamic State. Along the north there has been steady unrest in Algeria and especially Libya since the NATO backed coup where President Obama declared that the United States was leading from behind in the ouster of and eventual execution (murder) of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. In Libya the nation is in fractious rule of numerous terror groups and tribal armies with some having declared alliance with the Islamic State. In the south east there is the Sudan which bled in the south especially in the Darfur area. Eventually the Sudan was force to divide allowing South Sudan to become independent. In October of 2015, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir issued a decree establishing twenty-eight states in place of the ten constitutionally established states. The decree established the new states largely along ethnic lines. He took it to the parliament for approval as a constitutional amendment in November and the South Sudanese parliament empowered President Kiir to create new states.

 

This brings us to Egypt where the recent history has played out live and large in the Western media. The Arab Spring riots led to the removal of President and military strongman Mubarak. The elections were held fairly soon after Mubarak was forced to step down largely by the United States backing of the Muslim Brotherhood. These elections overwhelmingly approved Muslim Brotherhood candidate Morsi to the presidency and a large Muslim Brotherhood majority in the parliament. Within the year new rioting broke out protesting the implementation of Sharia despite warnings from Turkish President Erdogan to the Morsi government to slow their radical changes or face resistance. This led to the military removing Morsi and arresting him for election fraud. New election instated former General of the Army Sisi as President though he still had an Islamist and presumed Muslim Brotherhood controlled parliament. The Obama administration refused to recognize Sisi and demanded that Morsi be reinstated; a request which was roundly ignored. Unrest still exists between Egypt and the United States which will be resolved by the Presidential election this November in the United States. As to what either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump might choose to do is a complete mystery at the present time as neither has addressed foreign policy beyond Hillary’s claim to deep knowledge claiming her time as a Senator of New York and a stint as Secretary of State under President Obama which included the Benghazi, Libya fiasco amongst other miscues and Trump claiming to have conducted business deals with numerous foreign governments and met many world leaders though particulars remain largely unconfirmed. Egypt has also faced unrest largely from the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic State where both are vying for control of the Sinai from where they would presumably unseat Sisi and retake the presidency. Hamas in Gaza was seen as providing assistance to these and some Iranian backed groups in the Sinai thus earning themselves a complete sea and land embargo enforced by Egypt from their waters and land borders with Gaza. The Egyptian blockade is often ignored with the large amount of attention paid to the Israeli “blockade” which is actually an inspection of goods before allowing their delivery to Gaza usually within one or two days done to assure that weapons are not being imported by Hamas and the other terror groups which rule Gaza. Egypt too is a work in progress.

 

We will return to Israel subsequently but meanwhile on to Lebanon where the terror groups Hezballah runs the government with an opposition often afraid to act to remove the terror group as previous attempts have resulted in untimely deaths. Lebanon cannot be addressed without discussing Syria and the state of war which has more facets than hewn crystals. The main three forces are Syrian dictator Bashir al Assad who has retreated to the Alawite tribal areas along the Mediterranean coast and Lebanese border. Assad is backed by Iran and their proxy, Hezballah, out of Lebanon. These are the Shiite forces which also receive tactical support largely in the form of air strikes by the Russians who are protecting their port area along the Mediterranean coast. Inland there are Sunni groups, oft referred to as terror groups, supported largely by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Finally there are the forces of the Islamic State which stretch into Iraq where they face the Iraqi Army backed by Iran who uses mostly IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps) placing Iran at either end of the Islamic State. The Islamic State has been largely self-financed though there have been rumored support from Qatar. There is another group in northern Iraq and extending into northeastern Syria which is controlled by Kurdish Militias which are opposed strongly by Turkey. The Kurdish forces were at one time rumored to be receiving training by Israeli trainers on a clandestine mission though many have refuted that this was just a means of explaining the Kurdish forces resilience and holding their own against Islamist forces considered to be better equipped.

 

This takes us to the Saudi Peninsula and Jordan which we can count as a single unit of the GCC (Gulf Coordination Council) which is a group backed mostly by Saudi Arabia which includes Kuwait and the Gulf States and to a lesser extent, Jordan. Saudi Arabia has a close working relationship with the Egyptian government of President Sisi who are jointly facing terror groups including those supported or aligned with Islamic State as well as Iranian backed terrorists and the Houthi Tribes in the Yemen civil war, a front where Iran backed and Saudi Arabian backed forces are in direct confrontation. The United States has opposed and presumably attempted to prevent, though with little success, arms shipments to the Houthis by Iran and also opposed the bombing sorties from Saudi Arabia with equal lack of success and the belligerents continue to fight on. In the southernmost areas of Yemen, the prized areas which overlook the narrow passage from the Red Sea into the Arabian Sea, called Bab el-Mandeb Strait are a group of fighters originally claiming alliance with al-Qaeda but recently changing their alliance to presumably the Islamic State. These groups have benefited directly from Saudi raids as has the currently recognized Hadi-led government.

 

Yemen Battle Map

Yemen Battle Map

 

Lastly let us finally look at Israel. On the Golan Heights IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) have returned fire when fired upon by intention and otherwise has unofficial drop points for wounded individuals, civilian and combatant though no difference is noted, wounded and in need of treatment. IDF soldiers take these wounded and treat them in their field facility with the more serious cases transferred to Israeli hospitals for treatment. After treatment the individuals once sufficiently recovered are returned from whence they came at same drop points. All sides can view the individual drop points and all points are respected by other fighting factions in an unarranged agreement as all sides use this treatment method and no one side wishes to risk being cut-off from Israeli treatment and have to rely on whatever resources they have available. We have no information as to whether any Iranian forces have received treatment from the Israelis though if placed in civilian clothing they would receive the same treatment as any other individual. The Israeli border with Lebanon is currently quiet as Hezballah has sufficient on their plate with forces in the Syrian conflict and rumored even to have some fighting with IRGC or Houthis in Yemen. Intelligence believed to be accurate estimated that Hezballah has stores of rockets of varying size and capable of striking Tel Aviv, Bathsheva and even Ashkelon as well as guided missiles from Iran capable of striking anywhere in Israel including the southernmost port city of Eilat carrying warhead as large as two kilos and potentially five or ten up to one-hundred kilos warheads on their short and medium ranged rockets of which they possess as many as one-hundred-seventy-five-thousand. On their larger missiles they have warheads of as much as seven-hundred-fifty kilos on modified Zilzal-2 with a four-hundred km range and which they possess an estimated one thousand. Their Fateh-110 missile has a range three-hundred km range striking at Mach 3.5 carrying a four to seven-hundred kg warhead of which Hezballah possess more than twenty-thousand and lastly there is the Shaheen-II two stage missile which has a range of two-thousand km making able to strike anywhere in Israel and into Egypt. Each missile is capable of flight altitude of up to three-hundred km, is GPS guided, and varies a one-thousand plus kg warhead making it potentially capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and retaining it guidance hardware. It is doubtful that Iran has, let alone provided Hezballah with a deliverable nuclear warhead. Such is not far from the horizon for Iran but their providing Hezballah with such a weapon is doubtful.

 

The remaining fronts for Israel are with Jordan and Egypt which are both peaceful and with the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Judea and Samaria as well as with Hamas and ally Islamic Jihad and other terror and criminal groups in Gaza. The front with the PA is largely one where there are terror strikes which can be planned by Abbas and the his PLO terror groups or the less planned but instigated through calls for violence from PA figures, PLO figures or any of a litany of groups most of which are either headed by Mahmoud Abbas or are willful practitioners at his beck and call. The most recent round were stabbings carried out largely by Palestinian Arab and some Israeli Arab youths as well as car rammings along with rock and Molotov cocktail throwing with rioting which are carried out routinely by PA controlled terror groups, the Tamini family instigators who work closely with European Union and other European NGOs whose main aims are to cause any violent response by Israel which is filmed and the instigation causing the defensive act is edited and with careful editing and juxtaposition of stock footage, prerecorded footage or actual footage with any questionable instigations by the Arabs edited over or out completely compiled into the final product which is then transmitted throughout European news agencies within a matter of a couple of hours and they run with it unedited as if it were an actual news story followed by their governments and the European union then condemning Israel for use of disproportional force or the commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The Gaza front is another area where Iran attempts with some success to smuggle arms mostly containing rocket motors and rocket parts and technology. Funding for Hamas comes from UNRWA as well as from the PA making the European Union, United States, United Nations and individual European nations as well as numerous Arab countries direct or indirect financiers of Hamas terrorism and rocket attacks as well as Arab instigations and propaganda which permeates their entire society from their media to the schools, summer camps soccer leagues and every aspect of childhood and raising the children to hate Jews as well as Israel. The Hamas Charter calls not only for the annihilation of Israel but of Jews worldwide. Similar language is found in Islamic Jihad and Hezballah pamphlets and charters or constitutions. The hatred goes well beyond Israel and includes Jews everywhere as well as Western culture and societies. Hamas and their allies as well as Hezballah desire a world caliphate under Sharia and openly claim so. The main difference is whether the caliphate would be Shiite or Sunni, for the rest of us that is a minor comfort.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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November 22, 2015

Islamic State is not the Main Threat, Iran Is

 

Islamic State is not yet a problem so large it cannot be dealt with in a matter of weeks, not months, not years, but weeks. President Obama was on the right page when he referred to them as the Junior Varsity and he ought to know as he armed the Varsity with his Iran agreement. Granted, as far as any intelligence which has been revealed to any source we have found would admit; Iran does not yet have a practical deliverable nuclear device. Sure Iran could build a nuclear bomb and possibly a thermonuclear bomb, a hydrogen bomb. The problem they face is twofold. First is the device would be crude by modern standards and would be too cumbersome for placing on a missile and Iran does not have any heavy bombers which are able to penetrate any radar nor have the range to strike the United States. Secondly, the device would be trackable by nuclear detection satellites and thus there would be no element of surprise and at least the United States military and probably others would have early warning should such a concentrated amount of nuclear fuel be moved; and all a nuclear device is, is a concentrated amount of highly enriched nuclear fuel which can easily be pushed to critical mass. The only way that Iran could currently conceal a nuclear device would be to build the device sufficiently deeply underground and then contain it in lead or other means of preventing its detection by satellites and other means, load it onto a ship and sail it to its target detonating it as soon as the first alarms were sounded by the detection devices currently in place at most major shipping docks. The problem will be what Iran develops within the next three to five years as they master miniaturization thus making a high yield thermonuclear device deliverable on any of their missiles, particularly any of their suborbital and low Earth orbital missiles which by then will have the capability to strike anywhere on the planet.

 

We know from monitoring their launches that Iran has, as has North Korea, mastered the launch angle which the Russians first proposed and the Chinese were informed of this weakness who then passed it to the North Koreans who have shared this information with Iran that the United States defensive grid and radars all point northward where a perceived nuclear attack by the Soviets was feared would strike going over the North Pole. Thus, should Iran develop a nuclear warhead and the missile with which to deliver it all they would need is a missile capable of crossing Antarctica and coming upon the United States crossing the Gulf of Mexico and within a minute detonating approximately three-hundred miles over St Louis-Kansas City area using a low yield high EMP device, exactly what intelligence from numerous sources has indicated Iran has concentrated most of their research into manufacturing, and thus crippling the entire North American grid overloading well over three-quarters of the main transformers to overload and potentially explode and minimally melt down and knocking their delivery systems out of order for the foreseeable future and which would take decades to replace causing an estimated eighty-five to ninety percent of the human life to die as a consequence. Making matters worse, the only nations currently producing such transformers are Germany and Japan. That, my friends, is the real nature of the threat to the United States and all her allies counting on her promises of defense and protection. Where will those allies sit when the United States is incapable of accessing her satellites to provide intelligence and other warnings? That is the big question.

 

The astonishing is the price of hardening the power grid, the protecting it from an EMP attack by any enemy as well as protecting it from solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as well as from storm damage would cost between a half of a billion dollars to as high as twenty-five billion dollars depending on how much of the grid one would desire to protect. The higher figure would protect the entirety of the electrical grid leaving only what is deemed the “last mile” vulnerable which is the lines coming to the poles and small transformers for home delivery vulnerable which thus would make a single strike EMP device a local failure of power which could be repaired in months, not years, and would effect a relatively small area. This higher price would include hardening the parts of the grid delivering electricity to hospitals, government communications centers, phone company service, military facilities, police and fire service and other vital systems. Granted, it would still be a disaster for an EMP event be it a solar storm or a nuclear or other EMP attack but it would be survivable. If work began this month the hardening could be mostly complete and the grids switched over to the new below ground delivery system within five years, it would only take funding and Congress is aware of this situation having monitored its price since it was first researched in the 1950s. Had the monies used to research and re-research this problem and its solutions have been used after the third assessment to installing the obviously necessary fix, it would have been accomplished long ago and the discussion would be ended. The problem with making the necessary repairs and alterations to the system is simple, once repaired it is no longer a campaign issue and everybody knows that a campaign issue, especially one so universally accepted as common sense, is far better than a problem resolved. The issue is that nobody can take credit for repairing a problem beyond maybe two or three election cycles (two years so for a Senator it would be one election cycle) while leaving a vital problem which is a winning position for both parties to continue to need addressing can be a campaign winner for decades upon decades if left wanting, which do you think the idiots in Washington would want more, the repair or the perpetual campaign device where incumbents can point to their votes to research an EMP vulnerability one more time or their opponent claiming they have ignored the problem too many times when it should have been addressed. Almost a no-brainer, a recurring issue is far more useful than any repair of a major vulnerability, obviously. If the American public, even as small as ten percent, were to make the actual repair work their main priority and establish an NGO to lobby Congress and the White House these repairs would be financed and gone within one Senatorial election cycle (six years). But of course this is not as sexy a topic as say neutral-gendered public restrooms.

 

The vulnerability of the North American electrical grid is actually becoming a vital issue as it would take ordering some fifty new transformers to begin the main work such that as the system is hardened simply by burying it twenty yards underground, it would require less but placing it that deep would allow for almost any building to take place without causing disruptions caused by new buildings construction needing to rerun electrical grid wiring. In urban environments and presumed expansion of large metropolises the depth could be increased placing it beyond any conceivable construction projects with the possible exception of an underground city, another idea from the fifties we have not seen as the science magazines envisioned along with cities under the ocean and flying cars, though progress is good on the flying cars and not so much the others as people like being able to walk outside and feel the breeze on their cheeks and the warmth of the sun while taking in some rays on a summer day. Under ground and under water make these little pleasures a tad more difficult, not insurmountable, but more difficult. So, the question we need to be asking the American public is, when are they going to take up this as their main concern every election cycle thus letting Congressional Representatives and Senators alike know that if they are not actively pushing and bringing legislation to the floor every six months then they will be voted out of office. Make them accountable for having the monies granted to the states to harden their electrical grids. Furthermore, they must have a date set for all work to be completed, granted if the deadline is five years it will take fifteen, and have the Department of Energy (DOE) follow up and report to Congress and the White House every six months. Make completing such a project a national priority, that is completion and not debate and researched, as the research has been done and redone and done again ten times over and the time to implement is far beyond overdue and needs to be done, not still overdue.

 

Both North Korea and Iran have been furthering their research into an EMP attack allowing them to strike the North American electrical grid and then sit back and watch the United States and Canada suffer a blow placing them back into the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries at the very start of the electronic age and widely distributed power systems being built. Knowing this threat is rapidly becoming a reality and the race should be on whether such an attack can be mounted successfully against the hardening of the electrical grid getting it sufficiently far along to prevent most of the damage from such an attack. Intelligence reports have already shown the advances, and sizeable they are, of North Korea and Iran, with assistance from China, making the preparations to allow for such an attack. Congressional studies having been done at least a dozen times and still no action on what should be and is a federal responsibility yet still there are no plans being put into motion with only Texas making and executing the initial phases for hardening the electrical grid should alarm the public into demanding action. The race is an obvious one placing the Iranian ability to deliver a nuclear or electrical bomb as an EMP attack over central United States against the United States hardening the North American power grid. Thus far only North Korea and Iran are participating in this race while the United States is still rubbing its hands together treating hardening the electrical grid as a perpetual campaign issue to never be resolved as it serves them for the problem to persist. Where are the people and their demanding that this problem be resolved? Perhaps if somebody were to get the public involved and demand, then this project can be completed before Iran or North Korea uses the vulnerability as a weapon, destroying the United States by taking out their ability to deliver generated electricity to the general public. It is obvious that posing this as a threat to life as we know it has not engendered any serious concern so it is time to strike a blow below the belt, as it were. There need be a large effort on social media informing the American people that should an EMP wave strike their electrical grid, be it a solar flare or an attack by North Korea or the soon to go nuclear Iran that they would no longer have cell phone service, no more texting, and no more following the Kardashian on the web or watching Game of Thrones on Television and no more microwave dinners, perhaps then they would wake up and smell the odor coming from the unpowered refrigerators. Just saying. What will it take to wake the American people to demand this be taken seriously by their Representatives and Senators in Congress and whoever will be in the White House next to get-er-done! Iran is counting on the United States to remain unaware and unconcerned in order for them to strike and wipe the United States off the world’s scene leaving them as the inheritors of the world.

 

Iran could squash the Islamic State in under six months and under six weeks with the assistance of Putin and the Russian military. That was proven by the cruise missile attack made this week by Russia from ships in the Caspian Sea striking Raqqa, Idlib and Aleppo provinces of Syria causing heavy casualties to Islamic State forces stationed in these areas. Further, you will note the lack of concern over the use by the Russian forces in Syria of disproportional force as the Islamic State cannot launch cruise missiles from ships, they have no ships. Further, where is the concern over collateral damage, civilian casualties or of causing collective punishment and targeting innocents? Where are the perpetually concerned activists who flock to every court in the world which will hear them, storm the United Nations General Assembly and Security Council as well as the United Nations Human Rights Council and every NGO concerned with human rights as well as the editorial page of the New York Times and other leftist news networks, newspapers and other media? Oh, excuse me, I thought this was Israeli cruise missiles, go back to sleep, nothing to see here. After all, it is not as if anybody in Moscow would care one iota about any rulings in any court, commission, council or NGO even if one were to have the nerve to stand up and accuse Russia of war crimes, come-on, give me a break. So, in case we were not paying attention to the entire Middle East conundrum, Russia and Iran are cutting a swath out from the easternmost borders of Iran facing India through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon thus establishing and cementing in place a Shiite Crescent which we defined as one of the main designs the Iranians placed in their list of priorities, even first on the list right ahead of nuclear weapons and using them to rid the world of the Great and Little Satans, the United States and Israel, thus the EMP coverage above. This Iranian Shiite Crescent would include all of Iraq except for the Kurdish regions which they would name as Iraq as the rest of Iraq would have been absorbed into Iran along with Syria and Lebanon, though Syria would be managed by Bashir al-Assad and Lebanon would be a semiautonomous state owing fealty to Iran (see map below).

 

 

This is the desired and long sought Iranian Shiite Crescent across the Middle East reaching from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea after Islamic State Defeat and Iran Surge Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad with Hezballah retaining their iron-fist control over Lebanon and the Iraqi Shiites retaining their hold on the southern half of Iraq. This could very well be the starting positions for a final World War resulting in exchanges of nuclear weapons before the end is reached. This map also depicts the areas bordering the Iranian influence which could become the future red lines and the trip wire for a horrific conflagration, exactly what the Twelvers desire to bring back the Twelfth Imam and the Islamic Messiah who will lead them to finally realize their destiny of world conquest. Despite what many in the West view as an outdated and dead idea, the Iranian leadership dreams of world conquest and desire to that end.

This is the desired and long sought Iranian Shiite Crescent across the Middle East reaching from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea after Islamic State Defeat and Iran Surge Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad with Hezballah retaining their iron-fist control over Lebanon and the Iraqi Shiites retaining their hold on the southern half of Iraq. This could very well be the starting positions for a final World War resulting in exchanges of nuclear weapons before the end is reached. This map also depicts the areas bordering the Iranian influence which could become the future red lines and the trip wire for a horrific conflagration, exactly what the Twelvers desire to bring back the Twelfth Imam and the Islamic Messiah who will lead them to finally realize their destiny of world conquest. Despite what many in the West view as an outdated and dead idea, the Iranian leadership dreams of world conquest and desire to that end.

 

 

The main force blocking the Iranian dreams are held by the anti-Assad forces and the Islamic State. Currently these two forces are fighting one another which Iran sees as to their advantage and as military doctrines point out, when two of your enemies are fighting each other, arm both and sit back and watch. This is exactly what Iran is doing while Russia attacks both keeping either from attaining a victory. When the time is ripe and the Iranians are ready to spread their voodoo that they do so well, their moves will be signaled by their overrunning the Islamic State and wiping out the opposition to al-Assad returning him to power where he can rule over the rubble. When the Iranian Army, aided by shock forces from the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps), crash into the Islamic State from both sides aided by United States and Russian air power with the Russian operating within Syria and the United States striking in Iraq, then they will have aided Iran in establishing what they feel is required to pursue goals at the next level. These attacks will also serve a secondary objective, the acquisition of Abrams Main Battle Tank which they will be able to reverse engineer its best features and develop the next Iranian Heavy Battle Tank ending their reliance of Russia for their main battle tanks. What the world need understand is that Iran is not aiming for simple hegemony over the Middle East surpassing Israel in military strength; their intent is replacing the United States as the main superpower of the planet. The majority of military assessments of Iran place their aspirations as being to simply be the main power in the Middle East. Where that is their immediate goal, it is a goal on their way to far loftier goals. Once they assume the role of superpower in the Middle East it is their intent to take control of the GCC oil fields and of the two holy cities of Mecca and Medina thus claiming the title of the central force in Islam. Should Iran establish these facts on the ground it will amaze most military and political researchers on how fast Shiite Islam completely eclipses Sunni Islam. There will be a rush for Sunnis to declare their perpetual and complete devotions to Shiite Islam and Shias will be the predominant form of Islam practiced in the world though the majority of these new Shia Muslims practices will almost assuredly appear no different than their practices under Sunni, only their adherence to the Ayatollah over any other religious leader and their imams will slowly transit their practice to celebrate the Shia holidays and follow Shiite rules and power structure.

 

Even the fighters from the Islamic State might see it as to their advantage to switch sides and serve Iran if given half the chance. It is exactly what Osama bin Laden stated in video tape released after he attacked the United States on September 11. 2001, “When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse… We hit her the first hit and the next one will hit her with the hands of the believers, the good believers, the strong believers. By Allah it is a great work. Allah prepares for you a great reward for this work.” Iran is the coming unarguable strong horse with Shia Islam following right behind attracting the worship of the soon to be majority Shiites over the has-been Sunni should Iran get half the chance to complete their current plans. In a warped manner, Islamic State has served a two-fold purpose of stymying the Iranian plan for a quick destruction of the anti-Assad forces in Syria and completing his crescent of power across the entirety of the Middle East and then being able to center their attention on the oil fields in Kuwait and northern Saudi Arabia as well as the oil fiefdoms along the Arabian coastlines which would allow Iran to tie a direct route to Yemen allowing for Iranian forces, likely mostly from the ranks of the IRGC to assault the western edge of Saudi Arabia gaining a front along the Red Sea, cementing their control over what passes through the Suez Canal and thus controlling one of Egypt’s main sources of income, as well as capturing Mecca and Medina and with them control over the world’s one and one third billion Muslims. Once Iran has gained that much influence over the Islamic world the rest of the world, in their thoughts, is simply ripe for them to pluck off the lowest hanging branches of the tree. If anybody is still seeking the blue turban mentioned so predominantly in one of the Nostradamus quatrains:

 

 

Century 9 – Quatrain 73
The king enters Foix wearing a blue turban,
he will reign for less than a revolution of Saturn;
the king with the white turban, his heart banished to Byzantium,
Sun, Mars and Mercury near Aquarius.

Dans Foix entrez Roi ceiulee Turban,
Et regnera moins revolu Saturne,
Roi Turban blanc Bisance cœur ban,
Sol, Mars, Mercure pres de la hurne.

 

Iran has a master plan to become the new master race replacing their friends from World War II, the Nazis. In 1935, Reza Shah asked foreign delegates to use the term Iran replacing their historical name of Persia. Despite most of the world having referred to Iran as Persia, the people of Iran, since the Sassanid Dynasty when it was called Iranshahr or Empire of Iran, had been using the name Iran, as it translates in English, in conversation and whenever referring to the people as well as the nation internally. It was considered quite interesting that the timing of the request from Persian to now be referred to by the old but not as ancient name of Iran as it coincided with the rise to power of Adolph Hitler, the Nazi Party and the concept of a master race called the Aryans which translates to Farsi as Iran. Despite the history behind the name, changing the name from Persia to Iran, meaning Aryan, was quite strange and could only be determined by the Western powers as depicting the preference of the Persian, now Iranian, leadership to the Axis powers and not the allies. For many decades, Iran and the German Empire had cultivated ties, partly as a counter to the imperial ambitions of Britain and the Russian Empires but which proved problematic to the allied powers as World War II placed the necessity for taking sides, especially in the oil rich Middle East. This was where the long established friendship between Iran and Germany caused concern which was the reasoning behind the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran from August 25 through September 17, 1941 thus preventing Iranian oil from giving Germany the lifeblood of war, petroleum for the engines of aircraft, armor and vehicles of all sorts, the very necessities for a modern military even during World War II. In conclusion, Iran has a similar vision as did Germany in the lead up to World War II. Iran now sees themselves as the new chosen to rule the globe, and yes, there are those who still believe in world conquest. All one need do is listen to the speeches translated from the first Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini or his successor the current Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The western world ignores the warning signs at their own risk, and a great risk that is. When somebody joins in on a group chant of “Death to America, Death to Israel!” then both America and Israel should sit up and pay attention. Israel has shown that she is and has been paying attention for quite some time but the United States appears to be more focused on Israel and the demand that they give back to the Arabs every inch of the land they demand and yes the leadership of the United States, especially in the State Department, are fully aware that the Palestinian and Arab demand is for every inch of Israel with the Jews removed by whatever means are available. If no nation on Earth will take them in then the other solution must be implemented, another final solution to a Jewish problem. The Jews have been down this road before despite the evidence out of Tel Aviv which appears to be adamantly ignorant and mislead by leftists of the world uniting in declaring Israel the next Palestine and the Israeli Jews and Christians as the next genocidal massacre as the world shrugs and claims they did not see it coming and were planning on mobilizing but they took too long, so bad, how sad, you western-world cad. The one overlooked item is the Jews who remember history, all three and a half thousand years of history and we have made a solemn vow, Never Again!! Just in case you missed it,

 

 

Memorial Entrance to the Dachau Concentration Death Camp Which reflects on the reason that Never Again must mean Never Again and that is said to all Whose Choice is the Persecution of Jews Anywhere NEVER AGAIN!!

Memorial Entrance to the
Dachau Concentration Death Camp
Which reflects on the reason that
Never Again must mean Never Again
and that is said to all Whose Choice is
the Persecution of Jews Anywhere
NEVER AGAIN!!

 

Never Again!!

And we Mean Every Word

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

September 15, 2015

Who were the colonizers of MENA Pre-World War I?

 

We hear much talk by the mainstream media and especially the leftist editorialists about how the deprived victims the Arab populations of MENA (Middle East and North Africa) who were subjugated beneath the imperial European (and presumably American) colonizers. Exactly who were these colonizers and for how long had they exploited the citizens of MENA’s lands? Well, according to the liberal and mainstream media story line as they infer, though never quite say outright, were England, France, Italy and Spain. Further, there will be implications of over a century to potentially many centuries these colonial powers ruled over most of the MENA nations with many remaining under colonial control after World War I and even after World War II with the old dynasties lasting through 1970 or even 1979, and the most brash might even claim that there is a colonial power still ruling in the Middle East to this very day, though this last claim is as big a lie as they come. Perhaps a closer look is in order to get an honest picture.

 

Let’s begin with when the nations in MENA first came under imperial control and were placed under the presumed onus of foreign rule. Colonial rule came to the MENA nations in an early period which many of us first heard referenced when we studied the Bible. Perhaps some of the earliest colonial powers are not exactly what many of us would ever consider to be colonial powers yet as these were rulers who conquered other nations and subjugated them, these were the original colonialists. Terms can be applied to situations which most of us never would have considered applicable but when you are weaving a lie it is easy to go overboard in your definitions and apply modern terms to ancient events. The Egyptians would have been the first of the colonial powers many of us knew about despite there were others close to the same age such as the Hittites, Minoans, Mesopotamian, Persian and even Israel under Kings David and Solomon. All of these predated the better known Greek and Roman Empires and dates back to the ancient beginnings of China and Mayan cultures. A handy little timeline can be seen below. For the purpose of choosing a start date, why not begin around the year five-hundred which is after the fall of Rome and the Western Roman Empire while the Eastern Roman Empire or Byzantine Empire was limping into the future feebly.

 

 

Timeline of World Civilizations 3700 BCE through 1700 CE

Timeline of World Civilizations 3700 BCE through 1700 CE

 

 

All the most ancient empires have fallen and for the most part there was peace with each city moving forward loosely attached to Constantinople across the entirety of MENA though the farther west one went across northern Africa, which had less the ties to the Byzantine rule. This left this area ripe for the pickings and a harvester was about to enter the scene. Shortly before the year seven-hundred a new force emerged under the banner of Islam and began its spread heading initially into the heart of the former lands of Babylon, Persia and into Egypt. There was little resistance as the Byzantine Empire was crumbling and unable to field a credible defense. Jerusalem fell in April 637 to the forces of the Rashidun Caliphate. The conditions for the surrender were understood to be the conquering Islamic rulers would give guarantees of civil and religious freedoms for the Christians under the rule from Jerusalem in exchange for Jizya, a tax on non-Muslims given in exchange for their protections which also included the Christians acceptance of Dhimmitude, a form of subservient lower class citizenship which was to be protected and tolerated and condoned. The spread of Islam took place largely in three stages, the first during the life of Mohammad, Next under the first four Caliphs, and finally under Umayyad Rule which was the basis for the Caliphate (see map below).

 

 

Expansion of Islam Across MENA and threaten Europe before Ottoman Rule

Expansion of Islam Across MENA and threaten Europe before Ottoman Rule

 

 

After the spread of the Caliphate which continued what was technically an empire which implied colonization over territories beyond the initial founding under Mohammad which was centered around Medina, the beginnings of Mohammad’s power, and included the Mecca region which Mohammad took partially as it was the closes power base, the Meccan rulers denied Mohammad’s claim to rightful ruler and had chased the early Mohammad from their territories as they rejected his preaching and teachings and determined he was a corrupting influence. The Caliphate had followed particular lines of succession which had split early after Mohammad’s death which formed the duality which still splits Islam into competing camps of Sunnis and Shiites. For the largest part the Sunni Muslims outnumbered and were the stronger camp though never quite capable, or more likely never made an effort to unify belief as beliefs can be near impossible to be completely defeated thus any effort would eventually prove fruitless and not worth the efforts expended. Instead the Sunni simply kept expanding their empire and largely tolerated the Shiites unless attacked and given no choice. When the two sects did engage each other the Sunni proved superior defeating and often killing the Shiites and their rulers in battle. The Caliphate continued to rule their lands after and expanding conquering Spain and headed into Frankish territory, early France, where the Caliphate reached is furthest advance. After taking Granada they advanced to the next major city, Tours, where a decisive battle turned the tides in the year 732 CE finally having a definitive defeat of the Caliphate forces. The battle victory is credited to Charles Martellus (the Hammer) Martel, who lost a mere thousand to fifteen-hundred of his forces, would later in history be granted the title of savior of Christianity. The vanquished was Abd Ar-Rahman Al Ghafiqi who was slain during the battle along with an estimated twelve-thousand of his warriors.

 

Beginning at the beginning of the fourteenth century the Ottoman Empire began to make its presence felt which would eventually lead to their conquering the entirety of the Caliphate at their most powerful. Until this point the Caliphate ruled over the near entirety of MENA and had spread into Spain and southeastern Europe. The map below shows the advances and periods of the Ottoman Empire conquering the Caliphate, bringing an end to the successions of Caliphs and temporarily ending the violence between Shiite and Sunni camps. The Ottoman succession follows the lineage of Ottoman Beylik who initiated the spread and domain of his family tribe in the year 1300 as his aim was likely like everybody before them, to conquer the known world. The expansions continued from his death in 1359 through 1451 when the next ruler of the Ottomans who expanded the borders notably during his rule through 1481 was Medmed II. He was followed by Selim I (1512-1520) and Suleiman the Magnificent (1520-1566). There was expansion beyond this period where the Ottoman Empire reached its apex before its fortunes began to wane.

 

 

Ottoman Empire Ascending from 1300 through 1683 includes Golden Age of Islam

Ottoman Empire Ascending from 1300 through 1683 includes Golden Age of Islam

 

 

The Ottoman Empire caught the Caliphate as it was in retreat after having lost Spain (Andalusia) during the Christian Reconquista which was part of the campaign to rid Spain of its Moorish Muslims as well as the Jews and any other group which was not Catholic and sworn fealty to the crown. This period of the Christian Reconquista was a logical following from the victory at Tours by Charles (the Hammer) Martel and spanned an area of time stretching from its earliest uprisings in the north and northwest in the Battle of Covadonga in the summer of 722, a full decade before the battle of Tours, but this revolt was the very beginning of the end of Islamic rule in Spain (Andalusia). The battles continued until finally the signing of the Treaty of Granada on November 25, 1491. This was the end of the fighting with the turning over of the city of the final southern coastal towns of Granada. It was during the final push that King Ferdinand II of Aragon and Queen Isabella I of Castile that the infamous Spanish Inquisition was initiated. The Spanish Inquisition lasted from November 1, 1478 through to July 15, 1834. The Inquisition was the attempt, a rather thorough and successful attempt, to convert, drive out or otherwise deal with any residual Moorish or Islamic followers remaining in Spain along with ridding Spain of its Jews who either fled with the Muslims or were chased eventually across all of Europe ending up in Russia and Poland for a while until the Czar’s pogroms drove them into Poland and Germany which set the stage for the Shoah, the Holocaust.

 

There were other adventures which came from Europe somewhat as a response to Islamic Caliphate advances leading up to the fall of Constantinople in 1453. These were known as the Crusades which were an attempt to retake the Holy Land after the initial fall of Jerusalem in April 637. There were four separate crusades which took separate routes reaching the Holy Lands and gathered the troops from various countries, kingdoms and City-States they passed through and could find willing, or sometimes less than willing, forces to join in their ‘holy’ missions. The Crusader routes and periods of duration (shown below on map) began in 1095 with the First Crusade which continued until 1099. The Second Crusade began in 1147 and lasted until 1149. The Third Crusade was initiated in 1189 going into 1192. The Fourth Crusade began in 1202 and terminated in 1204. They had limited success and resulted in making some groups and individuals very wealthy, so much so that they remained in the Middle East despite having to live under Islamic rule. As far as having a definitive effect on the course of history, it is doubtful and at best might be credited with a residual effect of engaging forces which otherwise could have assisted with the attacks on Constantinople but not on events thereafter.

 

 

Crusader Routes I through IV spanning 1095 through 1289

Crusader Routes I through IV spanning 1095 through 1289

 

 

The Ottoman Empire final began to weaken while the European powers were feeling the results of the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and soon the industrial revolution. While these events were transforming Europe the Ottoman Empire mostly rested on their laurels and stagnated which would cost them as they began to be surpassed by Western technology and discoveries and inventions which led to superior weapons of war. There were three stages of decline for the Ottoman Empire as indicated on the map below. Parts of the Ottoman Empire were held by them for just over a half century, and were under Islamic Caliphate before that for another seven-hundred to almost a thousand years. The final areas of the Ottoman Empire finally fell during World War I and became the Mandate lands from which Iraq, Lebanon, Transjordan (currently Jordan), Syria and Israel were formed. The European colonialists held lands which were formerly under either Ottoman or Caliphate colonial rule for well over a century while the Europeans held these lands for periods of merely a decade or less to the longest being at most a century and those are the exceptions.

 

 

Ottoman Empire in Decline 1800 through 1914 and Start of World War I

Ottoman Empire in Decline 1800 through 1914 and Start of World War I

 

 

The next map depicts the lands as they were held by European nations after World War I had established their claims in the Treaty of Versailles in 1919. The area outlined in red depicts the mandate lands decided by the San Remo Conference in 1922. These demarcations were proposed initially by the Allied Powers of Great Britain, France, Italy, Japan and Russia. The United States observed the negotiations but was not a direct signatory as the United States desires no holdings, colonial states, mandate responsibilities and was hopeful that they could have assisted in ending this horrific war and had already made their feelings known concerning the restructuring of Europe and the redrawing of boundaries, founding independent states out of the Austria-Hungarian Empire. Eventually the United States was coerced into adding their approval of the Mandate System which many viewed as the most tenuous of the treaties despite the signature of King Faisal signing as the representative for the Arab League.

 

 

Colonial Structure Post World War I defined by Treaties from initial surrender in 1919 through the San Remo Conference setting up the Mandate System in 1922 plus Sykes-Picot redrawing of much of the Middle East

Colonial Structure Post World War I defined by Treaties from initial surrender in 1919 through the San Remo Conference setting up the Mandate System in 1922 plus Sykes-Picot redrawing of much of the Middle East

 

 

The final map below depicts the independent states and their dates when their current governments or their freedom from European colonial rule came about. These dates are meaningful as it puts to a lie the claims you will likely hear about how these nations were under colonial rule and only recently gained their independence. There will be other lies which will be half-truths or misinformation by giving one impressions knowing the reality is totally different.

 

 

Dates that the MENA nations received their independence after colonial rule many since the times of the Persians or even earlier

Dates that the MENA nations received their independence after colonial rule many since the times of the Persians or even earlier

 

 

The actual history which needs to be remembered is that many of these nations have been ruled by outside forces since the very early ages of civilizations while others were once inhabited by a nation which either was destroyed in history or faced a natural disaster which placed their population, that which survived, within another culture where they assimilated and disappeared from history though they often brought skills with them which benefited their host nation which likely made them more welcome. One example of the last occurrence was the Minoan civilization which resided on the Isle of Santorini in the Mediterranean Sea. Everything was going along really great as they had their religion and held their sacrifices, one of which is of interest if you know your Hebrew Bible. The Minoans had a spring ritual which was intended to bring fertility to their crops, their herds, their people and to benefit all parts of their society. In this sacrifice they had to prepare a feast using newly born calf boiled and then roasted and brushed with a preparation made from the calf’s mother’s milk. Anyway, the Minoans were happily fishing and enjoying the wonderful Mediterranean weather until the ground rumbled and the caldera erupted all but destroying the entire Island which has slowly resurfaced in the ensuing years. Santorini is located between the Greek mainland and Cyprus in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea (see picture with map insert below). Santorini is still a dangerous place and potentially threatened with another eruption. Like most volcanoes, it is not a matter of if but of when the next devastating eruption pours forth and erases all traces of human development or existence as the Island may be blown completely apart only to rise from the Mediterranean depths with a whole new look and geography just as it has done throughout all of history. The homes and island is beautiful and a jewel glittering in the Mediterranean Sea and we can only hope it continues to glitter from the lights on the porches of the homes and not from lava belching forth from out of the sea.

 

 

Volcano Thera Caldera Santorini Island Ancient Home of the Minoan Civilization until Eruption just ruined their day

Volcano Thera Caldera Santorini Island Ancient Home of the Minoan Civilization until Eruption just ruined their day

 

 

When we look at the history of MENA nations one need remember that much of the area was also the cradle of civilization and as such had a distressing habit of spawning great civilizations which came, expanded as far as they could reach, overreached or had a number of bad years or the next great civilization either defeated and overran their empire or the two had a merger of sorts as exampled by the Greeks being subsumed by the Roman Empire which did not exactly destroy the four Greek sub-Empires as much as they incorporated as the Greeks saw an advantage of being the center of education and philosophy while the Romans knew of the Greek intellect and their ability to fashion weapons. That is not to say there were not conflicts, but somehow both civilizations influenced each other for the better. But even before Rome, before the Greeks, before the Persians there were the Babylonians, the Israelite Kingdom, the Hittite, the Egyptian and the Mesopotamian Empires. Each ruled and the areas of MENA can be said to have survived as best the individual tribes, city-states, empires, nations and peoples could be expected. There were the Ancient Empires which lasted from prehistory through the Greeks of Alexander. Alexander the Great was the last of the ancient empire builders and his would be the first of the new age empires, the actual colonialists of history. From here many empires claimed to be setting out to conquer the world but they also knew that dream could not be realized in one’s lifetime. Even here the states of MENA faced the Greeks followed by the Romans then the Byzantines as Rome broke into two Empires, the Eastern Roman Empire or Byzantine; and the western Roman or what became the Holy Roman Empire. Even European nations became colonized as there were the intra-European empires such as the Austrian-Hungarian Empire, Charlemagne, Napoleon and eventually the Nazis. After the Byzantine Empire collapsed there was the Caliphate followed by the Ottoman Empire, the two main Islamic Empires. During their time in power there were still the Mongols who came to conquer the world and instead converted to Islam by in large. China and India had their effect on the nations of the Middle East and also set up that area for who could take control of the trade routes. It was because of lack of access to these very trade routes which launched the European age of colonization which is the final or modern stage. Where the age of European conquest began in the late fifteenth century with Columbus and the other explorers heading to lay claim to the new lands in the Americas, then started an age of conquest as the natives were not as advanced when it came to warfare. The one advantage of living in the most contested lands in the world is you build up some formidable weaponry and tactics which the native tribes of the Americas were of no match.

 

The lands which form MENA were already colonized by the Ottomans who had a number of other cultures which also fought with their colonizers as all had a common bond which was Islam. This made these lands too much of a threat plus the Europeans had learned to have a healthy respect for the Ottomans and the followers of Islam through the Crusades and the wars which were barely able to constrain the Ottomans from sweeping across Europe. Much of that was due to the King of Poland and Lithuania John III Sobieski who came and relieved the city of Vienna from the Ottoman siege and brought that offensive to a conclusive end. Still, there was little attempt until into the nineteenth century before any assaults were waged on a by then weakened and almost backward sclerotic empire. Taking fair stock on the years of actual colonialization we see that the MENA nations, of which Syria is no exception except like Israel there was an Assyrian Empire which did not extend to anywhere near as vast an area as the more well-known colonizing empires, otherwise Syria has been a colony of somebody for a very long time. The ancient Empires spanned a good three-thousand years or more depending on sources. The middle empires which include the Roman, Byzantine, the Caliphate and the Ottoman Empires lasted almost two-thousand years. The final age was the European age of colonization of the MENA area which lasted less than two hundred years and when we speak of the Middle East itself it is even shorter barely making a century with Syria being far less and Iran almost untouched by the European colonizers. So, when the news reports tell of how these poor nations have been colonies for near an inestimable time and have not tasted freedom until only the most recent of times and even then most were brutal dictatorships, there is some truth. The problem is for the vast majority we were talking of Biblical era and pre Biblical times all the way through the Greeks and to the Roman Empire after the fall of the Eastern Roman Empire these lands were ruled by Muslims for the majority of the modern ages.

 

 

Mandate of San Remo for French and British including actual treaty demarcations for each nation

Mandate of San Remo for French and British including actual treaty demarcations for each nation

 

 

The Europeans only poured in at the end of the Ottoman Empire as it fell with the final areas which included Syria not falling until World War I thus not becoming a colony of the Europeans until around 1920 and with the areas of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel they were not colonies as much as protectorates being held secure from invasions by the British and the French starting in 1922 with the enactment of the San Remo Conference. The above map shows the League of Nations proposed British and French Mandates with the demarcations for Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Transjordan and Israel. This mandate was carved from the remains of the Ottoman Empire where the nation of Turkey was what would remain as the originator of the entire Ottoman Empire while these areas above plus Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen and Oman were brought into being and Saudi Arabia gained complete and uncontested control over Mecca and Medina. These maps and dates should arm those wishing to have the truth behind their arguments readily available to speak to what exactly Europe owes the refugees and victims of colonial rule when in reality it is the Arabian Peninsula, the originator of the Caliphate, and Turkey as the original source for the Ottoman Turks who founded the Ottoman Empire. The Europeans as far as Syria is concerned were a brief caretaker that lasted barely twenty-six years, exactly the same as it did for Israel and Israel has only had to take in over one million Jewish refugees from across the lands that make up MENA as many of them drove their Jews from their lands during the late 1940s and through the 1950s with some from Ethiopia and Russia coming even later and still taking in the Bnei Menashe from India and Israel will continue to take in Jewish refugees from the world over and has also taken in other refugees including but not limited to the Vietnamese boat people and Christians seeking refuge from persecutions. It makes one wonder how many refugees have been taken in by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait (who after the Gulf War which freed them from Saddam Hussein thanked the Palestinian workers for the support which Yasser Arafat lauded on Saddam Hussein and flew every last one back to the Palestinian Occupied areas of Judea and Samaria), Qatar (whose Al-Jazeera news service so gallantly praised and supported the uprisings in the hopes of placing the Muslim Brotherhood in charge of as many nations as possible and almost won Egypt and really urged on the war in Syria until it turned so very ugly) or Bahrain. One might expect these wealthy nations to assist their Arab brothers and sisters but nary a word from them except to demand that Europe do their part because the Europeans had colonies in the area for an average of fifty years compared to the one thousand year rule of Islam as the Caliphate and the Ottoman Empires. Europe should offer to take in refugees one for every twenty that the nations of the Arabian Peninsula give refuge to, that would be fair and proportional but don’t hold your breath.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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