Beyond the Cusp

July 3, 2016

Talking Turkey

 

Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu surrendered once again to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and this time did so with his eyes wide open and not after being hoodwinked by United States President Barack Obama inviting him onto Air Force One where he already had Erdogan on the phone and handed the call to Netanyahu with likely the one word demand, “Apologize!” The demand was worded with a stern or else look on the American President’s face and a cold lifeless steely glare in his eyes. This time Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu not only gave another apology but sweetened the apology with twenty million dollars of surrender money to be paid to the families of the terrorists of the Mavi Marmara. There was the excuse of sending the gas pipeline through Turkey where it can be sent on to Europe. One can only guess how badly that will work out or how many times the pipeline will be cut and/or exploded very much like the gas line in the Sinai and of course every time it is blown to smithereens, Israel will rebuild it for free and resume gas deliveries which will likely have ten percent skimmed off the top for domestic use, once again free as the price of doing business. You lie with dogs you awake with fleas and possibly ear mites and other wonderful gifts. One can only wonder how we came by Erdogan. Perhaps the picture below will assist in the story which can be read here.

 

George W. Bush followed by Barack Obama produced Recep Tayyip Erdogan

George W. Bush followed by Barack Obama produced Recep Tayyip Erdogan

 

What is Israel going to say now about paying the survivors of terrorists, do as I say, not as I do? The moral high ground is lost. Some might ask what will the next deal include, naming a sports stadium after them or just a few roads and highways as is the practice of the Palestinian Authority. What does Israel gain by this kowtowing? We could not get appliances made elsewhere? As far as trade is concerned, anything we import from Turkey we could have built a factory here at home to build them or built one in Greece and likely made them for less and the Greek government would love the added work for Greeks facing horrific economic times. Why woe a terror master when we are trying to make friends with that particular terror master’s sworn enemies. Perhaps President Erdogan has promised to provide an avenue for purchasing Iranian pistachios as doing so directly is next to impossible, fortunately. Well, if we are going this far to trade with Turkey why not Iran as well? Is that the point where we finally find some principled stance and if so why?

 

This deal was blasted by all sides both within and outside the coalition. Thus far it has not destroyed the coalition but it does beg the question what else have we not been told? Yes, we did agree to permit Turkey to build projects in Gaza for including but not necessarily limited to a power generating station, a desalinization plant, a Hospital and who knows exactly what else. Turkey will want to rebuild the housing apartment structures destroyed in the past two wars. When doing so they will provide the Ace in the hole of effective human shields. There will be little possibility that Israel will be capable of firing back at rocket sites with Turkish workers working right beside them. Any hope for a military strike by the IDF will be neutralized unless Israel is willing to risk a military confrontation with Turkey. Turkey is a NATO member and by treaty anyone attacking a NATO member risks fighting the entirety of NATO which includes, Germany, France, Britain and most of all the United States. Does anybody believe that President Obama, and perhaps Hillary Clinton after him, would have even a single quam about answering a call from Turkey for protection from Israeli attacks on their personnel? We need remember that all of the Israeli fighters have friend or foe circuitry which prevents their shooting any friendly aircraft, a code easily provided the Turkish fighter aircraft making them invulnerable to the Israeli F15, F16 and even F4 Phantom firing computers making most of the Israeli Air Force aircraft inoperable against any NATO aircraft. That would really lead to a very bad day for Israeli Pilots and their Prime Minister and coalition government. Such a catastrophe would be wholly impossible for any Prime Minister to survive and one could only hope that the Likud Party could read the writing on the walls.

 

Further, once allowing Turkish workers into Gaza under the guise of building hospitals, schools, housing, a power plant or two, salinization plants and other accommodations, what would there be to prevent their assisting with tunnel constructions, bunkers, ammunition stores, new rockets with guidance software and systems? Will the inspectors be capable of telling if the software boards and systems apparently intertwined within the desalinization systems belong within or are guidance hardware and firmware with software loaded being disguised guidance systems to make rockets into guided missiles? Of course they would be hard pressed to tell and the final item necessary to make them work is a camera system and map such that they could use a simple inertial guidance checked through GPS and target identification with a simple camera. All of that could be programmed into a cell telephone which could also triangulate its position using known cell towers. All this and more could be smuggled into Gaza along with terrorist masterminds pretending to be Turkish workers not to mention the ability for communication between Hamas leaders outside of Gaza with those within Gaza.

 

Once the precedent has been set with allowing Turkish workers to perform necessary repairs and upgrades to the utilities and other infrastructure then how does Israel prevent the next party offering to restore power or rebuild homes, build a subway system, highways, and eventually rebuild the international airport to receive more assemblies and other needful items which are so required that they cannot be sent by ship. Perhaps they will want to build a large and powerful telescope for the Astronomy coursework at the college or university they will build and provide the professors who will teach the class. Of course when explaining how to aim and focus this huge telescope they will be forced to utilize items visible during the day such as taller buildings in Tel Aviv if it does not stand outside line of sight. With an additional classroom lesson they could learn the adjustments one need make such that a mortar round could be placed where the telescope is targeting as well as corrections to settings to make the mortars far more accurate. With university professor’s offices and classrooms in the same building Israel would not be able of destroying the telescope using a large hammer but would need a very precise and accurate nail to drive.

 

These have been but some of what Turkey could do and as a NATO member state Israel would be required to treat lightly wherever these Turkish workers were located. Their round the clock presence at the worksites and sightseeing in off hours and days and sleeping in precisely chosen locations which by a miracle are directly adjacent rocket and missile provisions structures and workshops will negate any Israeli military interjections. Israel has given up much of the high ground when it comes to honoring and supporting the families of homicidal suicide bombers and other terrorists slain in the heat of battle and from there it is not much of a step to paying the salaries of those imprisoned in Israeli prisons. Additionally, Turkey, or should we say Erdogan and his band of enablers have corrupted the Supreme Court and rest of the high courts and the military leadership such that there is little if any opposition to Erdogan’s whims. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been known to carry the water for the Muslim Brotherhood (Arabic: جماعة الاخوان المسلمين‎‎ gammāʿat al-ʾiḫwān) or simply al-Ikhwan, al-Qaeda through the al-Nusra Front, even the Islamic State, as Erdogan supports all who share his desires to rid himself of Syrian former dictator al-Assad, as well as Hamas. Adding to this confusion has been Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s history of having worked with Iran as well as Saudi Arabia and Egypt when the Muslim Brotherhood held sway even advising former Egyptian President Morsi that he was moving towards Sharia far too quickly, advice not heeded as Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood misjudged their people who were quite wary of relieving one dictator for another, this one religious and backed by the Muslim Brotherhood. Erdogan refuses to deal with Egyptian President Sisi demanding instead that the Muslim Brotherhood be returned their nation to run as they please, President Sisi has proven thus far immovable. Erdogan seems to flutter from one controversial relationship to the next without giving it a moment’s thought. He wears more hats than a circus clown and is reportedly treated as such even by those he has befriended. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s life’s dream is to reestablish the Ottoman Empire and declare such the new Caliphate and himself as the Caliph himself. This dream would prove a nightmare for millions as Recep Tayyip Erdogan shows a complete lack of morals when pursuing any goal and nothing is beyond betrayal in this quest.

 

Perhaps in a moment of foolishness Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu believed he could trust President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and strike a deal which would prove lucrative in the future if not the present. Time will prove the validity of those ideas but the ideals sacrificed to form this deal were too many and too deep a cut into the Israeli heart. One need ask what is the final plan claimed to be at hand as the majority of Israelis know all too well that Mahmoud Abbas will not change his ideas nor his insatiable demands. He will continue to demand in Arabic his demand for the ancient lands of the Arabs to be returned to them. Abbas knows that the Jewish People have had a sizeable presence in Jerusalem seemingly since the beginning of time. So, knowing the Israelite claim covering five-thousand years to be valid he claims that his people who arrived in 637 to 666 A.D. actually have resided in these lands for the past nine-thousand years. He further claims they invented the proto-language Abbas calls the Palestinian-Canaanite language which they presumably invented the Palestinian-Canaanite language and alphabet centuries before the Israelites conquered the lands. As to erasing Israeli and Jewish history, this has been Mahmoud Abbas’s stock and trade. He wrote his doctoral thesis on a supposed relationship between Hitler and the Nazi elites and the Zionists which is all included in his presentations titled “The Other Side: the Secret Relationship Between Nazism and Zionism.” He presented the thesis at The Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Russian: Институт востоковедения Российской Академии Наук) which one may read about on WikipediA. The thesis is replete with references and quotes from sources since discredited but not before Mahmoud Abbas was warmly received and granted his Doctorate. Unfortunately for all within the areas directly and indirectly affected by this dreadful piece of Holocaust denial and pseudo-history, they are the poorer for having come in contact with it.

 

Abbas and Erdogan would make a great pair each supporting the other and exchanging specifically chosen lines consisting of double entendres mixed with outright lies. One could easily say Abbas and Erdogan deserve one another. Throw in an American President without a shred of decency worth mentioning; assuming such is even present on President Obama for the viewing, and you have the perfect set of people in place in order to offer up Israel in a demonic sacrifice filled with fire from nuclear weapons. Turkey might be a partner in just such a plan plotting right alongside them, they that are Iran and those with any plan, as long as it ends with Israel consumed in a nuclear fire. This would get Recep Tayyip Erdogan absolutely Joyous and President Obama possibly a second Nobel Prize, they would need a new award category, perhaps recognized the opportunity in this man but we all failed in realizing that promise, they could call it the almost realized the greatness expected of him award given to the individual who never realized that greatness or the total disappointment award, the Nobel Dunce Cap Award. The winner sits in a chair facing the corner while giving their acceptance speech. The award would be given once every decade making it one of the more coveted awards that Nobel would give. Perhaps we could suggest some who would have won this award .The award given between 1935 and 1945 could have gone to British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain for taking every wrong turn and delivering the victories necessary to prolong Hitler’s opportunity to build up his forces. Other recipients might have been Adlai Ewing Stevenson II, Richard Milhous Nixon and a host of others who were thought to have great expectations of then fell miserably short. Sports would likely give some strong candidates as there is many a college star whose sail lost all its wind upon entering the major leagues. Perhaps Prime Minister Netanyahu is also vying for such an award. He would get stiff competition from President Obama but a victory by either would require they credit the assistance from the other.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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November 29, 2015

NATO and the Turkey Problem

 

We here at BTC have warned about the eventual problem that Turkey was going to pose for NATO any number of times over the years going back to our article The Turkey Problem for NATO, though we never envisioned it might mean war with Russia to be honest. We saw the problem coming between Turkey and Israel which only was heightened after the Mavi Marmara blockade running confrontation between Israeli Special Forces and the terrorists placed on the lead ship intentionally by IHH terrorist groups posing as a human rights group in our article Let’s Talk Turkey. The problem we saw forming between Turkey and NATO remained centered on their different Middle East views particularly when it came to Israel. This became heightened once again over Iraq and the Second Iraq War when once again the ever more so drifting from a secular state into an Islamic state when at the onset of the second Iraq War Turkey’s entrenched leader refused NATO ally the United States from launching the second pincer of the initial engagement from within Turkey, as originally planned, in the article Turkey Needs to Prove They Belong in NATO Now. Turkey has continued their slide into an Islamic state replete with a strongman with near dictatorial powers in Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It was here in September of 2014 we continued to question the reason for continuing to have Turkey in NATO. The initial reason had been as a stalwart NATO member who could bottle up the bulk of the Russian Mediterranean fleet by refusing them access to the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles, originally and often still referred to as the Strait of Constantinople, through which any ships docked in the Black Sea would necessarily have to pass to make their way from the Black Sea through the Mediterranean Sea and onto the Atlantic Ocean, the only passage once the northern route freezes every winter. It was partially due to having a docking and repair facility which was one of the factors in the Russian seizure of the Crimean and the docks at the port city of Sevastopol and the Sevastopol Docks and Shipyards which is the resting and repair port for the Russian Atlantic Fleet during the winter months. One can see the tactical necessity the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles in the map below.

 

 

From the Sevastopol Docks and Shipyards Across the Black Sea then Through the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles to the Mediterranean Sea and thus the Atlantic Ocean

From the Sevastopol Docks and Shipyards
Across the Black Sea then
Through the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles
to the Mediterranean Sea and thus the Atlantic Ocean

 

 

After the Cold War ended, or at least ended until the current outward weakened appearance of the United States under President Obama, this tactical necessity for containing the Russian Atlantic fleet became far less important. Since the increased strength of the Russian naval forces, particularly its Atlantic and Mediterranean fleet the passage through these Turkish chokepoints had appeared to have lessened. That was before the current madness which is Syria and the Russian presence with both boots in the war in support of Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad. Suddenly fleet access to Sevastopol Docks and Shipyards has once again become of importance, or at least would have except for the lead from behind, well behind, foreign policy, or lack thereof, once again could have blockaded the heavy vessels of the Russian fleet. As it stands currently, the Russian Navy has been sending one of their large cruisers and battleships through these waters in order to have them in the Mediterranean Sea just in case they may be required in Syria. This is also the reason that the Russians are so concerned about their and the Iranian’s puppet in Syria, Bashir al-Assad. The Russians have set up forces both land and sea around the most important area in Syria, the western strip from Damascus with its international airport to the dock city of Latakia as seen in the map below.

 

 

Area West of Demarcation Line is Minimal Area for Russia to Control which Includes Most Military and Dual Use Areas Including the All-Important Area Around Damascus and Latakia Granting Access to Damascus International Airport and the Latakia Shipyards and Docks

Area West of Demarcation Line is Minimal Area
for Russia to Control which Includes Most Military
and Dual Use Areas Including the All-Important
Area Around Damascus and Latakia Granting
Access to Damascus International Airport
and the Latakia Shipyards and Docks

 

 

As the fighting in Syria worsened, especially for Assad and the Russian interest back in February of this year and it began to appear that the Alevites who are the tribe, which the Assad Family belongs, supporting Bashir al-Assad and in turn the Russians we noted the necessity for any outside forces, primarily the United States and NATO, in our article Battle for Middle East and Beyond Are Now Choosing Sides. This article included the Iranian influence as well as the Kurdish forces the neighboring situation in Iraq, ISIS, now calling themselves the Islamic State, but had not included the Russians as their main concerns back then included areas around Latakia and its naval base which was Russian built and was not exactly intended for the Syrian Navy, like they have one. At that time Turkey was less concerned with Assad as they were the Kurdish forces which had actually begun to merge between the Syrian Kurdish fighters and areas with their considerably stronger Kurds in the northern third of Iraq. This was the set-up which leads us directly to the present situation.

 

The sides have been aligned and the battle lines drawn. Russia has ended any pretense of soft support of Bashir al-Assad and the Iranian influence and can be expected to only increase their footprint. Where such may end is anybody’s guess. Meanwhile, the Islamic State appears to be mostly cementing their control over the large area they have carved out between Syria and central Iraq and cleaning house while trying to hold their own against the pressures from the Kurdish Militias, the Peshmerga Militias, who have retaken some of the major cities formerly under Kurdish control or belonged to the Yazidis. The areas liberated from Islamic State forces have revealed the true horrors which are the Islamic State including mass graves. The group presumably vetted and supported by the United States, the so-called Free Syrian Army has proven to be more embarrassment than force to be feared. These forces have been degraded to the point of virtual uselessness but these are still President Obama’s reason d’etre for being even minimally involved in the fight against the Islamic State. Whatever remnants of the Free Syrian Army can be fielded, are being attacked by Russia. This is important for another reason, these were the side backed by Turkey as well as the United States which have served as the conduit for United States aid monies and equipment has been placed into the battle. Much of what was sent presumably for the American trained forces but ended up in the hands of al-Qaeda. The ultimate joke of the entire tragedy which is the Syrian Civil War has been the training and equipping of the Free Syrian Army which had become all but useless as a force in Syria all while the United States invested millions upon millions of dollars and succeeded in training as few as five soldiers and definitely under a dozen. This is the force President Obama has supported and trained almost completely out of existence. These were also Turkey’s best hope for defeating al-Assad and the Turkish pipeline now feeds al-Qaeda forces and very likely is still allowing supplies to flow to the Islamic State just as Turkey has been selling their crude oil and mixing into the Turkish supplies which are piped to refineries and on to Europe. So, the lines have been drawn and the different sides defined even to include the double-dealing of Turkey at the orders from Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A state of status-quo has seemingly set in with the Russians now enforcing al-Assad which includes siding with Iran and fighting the presumably vetted fighters of the Free Syrian Army.

 

This is the force along with al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood presumably supported through the United States efforts and also by Turkey’s efforts and which the Russians have invested their main efforts of their attacks. This has placed the United States technically allied with the Russians against the Islamic State while also supporting those selfsame groups which includes the remnants of the Free Syrian Army all of which being made insignificant due to the efforts by the Russian efforts to degrade their abilities to fight. These forces receive some weak-willed support from Turkey as well as the majority of the United States as these were the forces which were to bring free and open elections to the remnants of the Syrian people who remain. The interesting alignments come to the fore with the Kurds who are despised by Turkey, supported to some extent by Europe and the United States, though most of this aid goes to the Kurdish forces in Iraq; have neutral relations with the Russians and are despised for their success in resisting even some of the greatest efforts by the Islamic State which revolved around Kobane. It was this front of fighting which melded together the two separate Kurdish groups into one Kurdish nation, well, at least as much a nation as is the Islamic State or the remnants of what was Iraq which has had its central region taken by the Islamic State which is now closing in on Baghdad, the Iraqi Capital City. The support structure of the Syrian campaign which has been defined as intended to degrade and defeat the Islamic State, ISIL as President Obama refers to them as well as the Junior Varsity, is confusing to say the least.

 

But much of this all fell by the wayside in the last few days as this was the week that somebody took their stand as solidly as possible and then immediately reassured itself of the backing of the group to which they belong and had a pivotal role to play previously. We are referring to the shoot-down of the Russian fighter-bomber by Turkish anti-aircraft weapons. There were initial reports that one of the Russian pilots managed to parachute from the stricken jet after it was struck by Turkish fire and was captured and executed by Turkish forces but those reports have been found to be false. The pilot in question was rescued in a twelve-hour operation involving Special Forces according to Russia sources. This may help to deescalate the crisis which is Turkey at the moment. It has been suspected, actually a lot stronger than suspected all the way past known and into certitude, which Turkey has been key for Islamic State recruitment allowing them to set up interviewing sessions in hotels which were moved every few weeks to give the appearance of having to avoid being too overt. It is a shame that Turkey did not follow this charade up by having heavily armed police storm the room in the hotel which was used right after they had moved on. This covert on-the-sly support for Islamic State’s most important business, recruitment and their sale of oil, to be channeled through Turkey who makes out financially well due to these facts. Everyone knows that Russia, especially under Putin, does not let things lie unbalanced from their favor even if it takes decades for them to serve-up their cold dish of retribution, some might call it revenge or even vengeance. Turkey must expect some payback from Putin; the only debate is how serious the Russian vengeance will be. What was distressing was that within a few hours Istanbul (Constantinople) had placed a call to Brussels, Belgium in order to request that NATO forces and nations stand ready to support Turkey in the case of any overly overt acts by Russia such as an invasion to take control of Turkey’s greatest asset, the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles, the gateway which separates Europe from Asia. This has been the classic line between the two continents. Now it could become the initial battle in a much greater conflict should it become a reading of blows with each one made to be one measure harder than the previous measure. The main question NATO may need to answer is whether that old remnant from the first Cold War has any teeth or validity now in what is rapidly becoming the second cold War and may go hot at any moment as long as threats of escalation or simply this for that trade-offs to continue.

 

 

Various Stages of Russian Fighter/Bomber During Turkey’s Provocation Over Claimed Airspace Violation by the Russian Pilot

Various Stages of Russian Fighter/Bomber
During Turkey’s Provocation Over Claimed
Airspace Violation by the Russian Pilot

 

 

Where this will go nobody at this moment other than Russian leader Putin and potentially Turkey’s leader Erdogan can say. Both men are strong willed and willing to go to any lengths to maintain their power. Putin switched the job descriptions for the offices of President and Prime Minister in order to get around the term limit and switched everything back as he returned to his previous position. On the other hand, Erdogan used his party and influence to prevent any government from taking power in order to force new elections where through intimidation and other frauds was able to return his party to absolute power with a majority of the seats in the Turkish Parliament. These are the extents these two men have used to remain in power for most if not all of this young century. We can be assured that neither will back down nor will they let such assaults lie without some form of retribution. Meanwhile, there has already been ramification with Russian Foreign Minister cancelling his visit to Turkey which was scheduled for early next month. There have also been a number of trade deals backed out of and voided placing financial pressures on a nation which can ill afford any such disruptions. Truth be told, both nations are financially vulnerable at the moment and this could have further ramification on a world financial situation where very few nations are sitting particularly safe from fallout if a trade war ensues between Turkey and Russia as this would mean potentially Russia refusing to use the oil pipelines which cut through Turkey which would be a major blow to the Turkish economy. One can bet that for as long as this is a contentious issue that Russians will not be vacationing on the Black Sea coast of Turkey, another financial hit on Turkey. Relations and actions will be measured and may quiet as long there are no future provocations between Turkey and Russia though I expect that Russian aircraft may avail themselves of taking bombing routes dangerously close and likely over the Syrian Turkey border rendering that border being crossed by Russian aircraft making raids on Syria acceptable and this be Putin’s revenge because it is the also on the face with the gauntlet followed by throwing at the feet of Erdogan just daring him to take another shot at one of the Russian aircraft ignoring the border at their leisure. This could get intense and seriously large real fast, especially if these two leaders start to play the international form of the game of chicken as neither one of these leaders will even flinch, let alone swerve away at the last moment; this situation would produce a clash of massive proportions which Turkey would be well-advised to avoid because against Putin, Erdogan would lose and Turkey be irrevocably damaged, perhaps destroyed would be more appropriate a term.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 3, 2015

President Obama, Israel, and the Threat Dilemma

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There is a situation developing which either President Obama has not been informed or really desires to destroy Israel and gift all the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea for the forming of an Arab state of Palestine completely erasing the State of Israel and very probably leading to the mass slaughter of the over Six Million Jews living in Israel along with probably most of the Baha’I, Christians and other non-Muslim Israelis and who knows even about many of the Muslims who may not meet the criteria for being a follower of Mohammad and Islam should Abbas apply some standard or tests killing all who fail to measure up. Once again this week President Obama renewed his threat during an interview given to an Israel news outlet that should Prime Minister Netanyahu not enter into renewed negotiations with the Palestinians that the United States would be hard pressed to support Israel in the United Nations Security Council should a resolution be presented concerning the situation with the Palestinians legitimate rights to a state with the 1967 lines, actually the 1949 Armistice Lines which the Arab League demanded never be considered or applied to becoming a border for any entity, especially Israel thus leaving Israel without an actual legally recognized border along the Green Line thus technically making it ineligible for statehood. This was the umpteenth time that President Obama has communicated this threat publically and who knows how many times he has demanded the negotiations reconvene or else to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and other members of the coalition and likely the opposition members as well. President Obama is sounding like a broken record (which refers to this vinyl disk which was the CD of its era, perhaps CD is a bad reference as they too are so dated already but we need a playable reference and not a memory stick with speakers, and the record would hit the damaged groove and jump back one or more grooves and keep skipping back repeating the same part ad nauseum) stuck on repeating that threat to the point that he might actually mean this red line as compared to his Syria red line. But there is a problem also of President Obama’s making he appears to be ignoring and likely intentionally.

 

This little snag is that there is no willing partner with whom for Prime Minister Netanyahu to negotiate. Chairman Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority refuses to permit negotiations on any borders or other potential demands and situations which stand in the way of Abbas making peace with Israel, namely the existence of Israel as you will soon realize. Abbas and all the other members of the supposed supportive ruling structures of governance for the Arabs denizens of Judea and Samaria residing in Area A and parts of Area B, with Area C presumably under Israeli sovereignty and thus beyond Arab rule by the terms of the Oslo Accords and the Roadmap for Peace (a restating of the Oslo Accords which additionally allowed for certain guarantees for Israel to retain many of the recognized Israeli settlement cities and blocks which were established, guaranteed by President Bush and his administration which was given Israel in a letter of intentions and refined definitions of terms, in exchange for Israel turning over Gaza to the Arab Palestinian Authority, of which Mahmoud Abbas is its Chairman, in order for the Palestinian Authority to be allowed to show the world their intent and ability to reside in peace with Israel and build a functional society within Gaza which would lead to the turning over of Judea and Samaria except for the recognized areas defined in the letter of intent which restated the inferences in the document of the Roadmap which set the standard for areas beyond Area A and Area B being turned over to Arab control in Judea and Samaria and East Jerusalem. The problem is that the Roadmap demanded that the Arabs demonstrate their leadership and ability to govern and live peaceably with the Israeli neighbors. Abbas and company almost from day one had a small problem, they really had no control over Gaza as the people of Gaza did not desire for Abbas to be in charge and stealing the majority of the funding that was supposed to be used for their betterment and the building of infrastructure and upkeep and all those other pesky and annoying items which is a part of leadership. This led to the expelling in disgrace the United States trained Arab Palestinian Authority Security Forces, an actual small army, replacing them with the peoples chosen leaders, Hamas the terrorist entity. So the demonstration on how Abbas would rule Gaza or any other area was to be thrown out unceremoniously and replaced with a terrorist group, namely Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Europe has slowly but surely taken a rather expected route for a continent mostly ruled by weasels of which the worst of the bunch are at the top in the European Union. The path taken by these illustrious genuflectors to anything anti-Israel, anti-Zionist and moving rapidly to including anti-Semitic was to remove Hamas, or at least try to but have to retreat due to the cries of protest which are beginning to wane and retreat as they adjust to the idea that there are no real terrorist groups, just many misunderstood bomb-makers and assassins, and soon Hamas will be cleared of accusations of terror activity and accepted as a ruling body in Gaza.

 

Now we reach the little problem, the burr the size of Texas under the saddle. Mahmoud Abbas and supporting kleptomaniacs have decided that they will demand the same exact demand put forth originally by none other than President Obama during his first year in office when he demanded that the 1967 lines be the actual border for any Arab State and that negotiations should begin on this idea. Abbas has taken that and demanded that all Israelis be removed from beyond the 1967 Lines, the Green Line, before he will even consider restarting negotiations. Thus far he has not particularly stated he is including the Eastern sections of Jerusalem, especially the areas surrounding the Temple Mount and reaching to the Western Wall as much of these areas have been either modernized inside leaving the outside of the building as its original and historic structure and stones as well as much additional new buildings as Israel will Never Again allow for the Temple Mount and surrounding environs to be stolen from us as long as we continue to breathe, period. But Abbas likely will include every inch of Jerusalem occupied by Jordan between 1948 and 1967 until they declared war on Israel on the second day of the Six Day War in June of 1967 where Israel, subsequent to the Jordanian assault, artillery barrage and tank advance through western Jerusalem, repelled and drove back the Jordanian Army across the Jordan River behind the recognized Jordanian border and liberating Judea and Samaria. The unit which retook the Western Wall and Temple Mount stopped their advance and prayed upon these holy grounds being liberated and returned to Jewish possession. This was the spiritual highpoint of the entire Six Day War which itself brought out a spiritual high for all Israelis, Zionists and their supporters, and they were numerous and even included Europe back in those times, before the universal campaign to besmirch the Israeli reputation and utilize old anti-Semitic tropes to label and defeat Israel making Israel and her supporters the new Jew to be scorned and destroyed at all costs. The old blood libels of killing babies for their blood for baking Matzoth became modern blood libel against the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), the Israeli government and the Jews of Israel as well. Now Israel is faced with President Obama demanding Israel enter negotiations or else he will support the presumably soon to be presented French Plan in the United Nations Security Council while Abbas demands that Israel pull all of her citizens, IDF, security forces, and border police from all of Judea and Samaria including the Jordan River Valley (a strategic defensive area which is essential if Israel is to survive any mass assault from out of the east such as Iran, Iraq and even Jordan with the potential of Syria or Turkey using that approach), all of the established cities east of the Green Line which includes nearly one-million Israelis both Arab and Jewish and most likely all of East Jerusalem.

 

One may wonder why Abbas would make such an outlandish and maximalist set of demands in order to even begin any negotiations. It actually is fairly obvious though a bit difficult to believe. The initial hint is the fact that there have been claims for quite some time from Arabs that they should be awarded all of Jerusalem for their capital city and that every trace of Israeli presence be removed thus giving all of Jerusalem and probably the majority of the neighboring areas which would be considered generally a part of the greater Jerusalem area. This would push Israel almost back to Tel Aviv and its neighboring areas and completely out of any of the high ground of which Jerusalem and the established cities beyond the Green Line are Israel’s first line of defense against both attack and terrorist infiltrations. But Abbas is fully aware of the ramifications of what he demands. Also, should Israel completely pull out of all the areas previously occupied by Jordan, what is left to negotiate? Abbas and his band of cutthroats will have received what even most Europeans, for now, recognize as the maximalist demands of the Arabs and should Israel retreat from all such areas past the Green Line even the Europeans, United Nations, United States, Russians, and virtually everybody else except those desiring that all of Israel be destroyed, and groups that includes Abbas and fiends. That is what Abbas deems needful of negotiations and why he can demand exactly the same that President Obama once demanded and has countlessly stated as an intended border, all of the lands east of the Green Line, as the initial point for negotiations and for all Israeli presence be removed, thus he also established possession, which we all know, possession is nine-tenths of the law. Once Israel has been forced from their cities, neighborhoods, factories, commercial developments, shopping malls and all other areas, many of which were established over forty years ago when the world recognized these areas as to be retained by Israel in even the most sacrificial of agreements and now are no longer in question a part of the Arab state to be formed upon the corpse of the state of Israel and the graves of her Jews, Christians and others.

 

So we have President Obama threatening to allow or possibly even support, which will be important as we will explain, the soon to be released French proposed peace plan in the United Nations Security Council and we have Abbas demanding that Israel abandon every inch of the contested lands, likely even East Jerusalem, before he will even consider gracing the negotiations table with a representative; Abbas is beyond and above such trivialities as bothering to negotiate. He is too busy looking at the real estate offerings in Northern Tel Aviv and choosing which mansion he will likely claim as his retirement estate, the place he will hide behind international troops guarding his safety after he destroys all of Israel through negotiations supported by President Obama; though I am tempted to make a Freudian typo of Preditorent Obama. Truth be told, there are those within President Obama’s innermost circle of advisors, which include Susan Rice and Samantha Power and others, including at least one self-loathing Jew, who would advise he support the eradication of Israel and the genocidal slaughter of her peoples replacing all with the twenty-third Arab state as a just and fitting crown of achievement and legacy of President Barack Hussein Obama, and for such an accomplishment perhaps his middle name should be in all caps, italicized, bolded and flashing red just for emphasis. This has to be behind Mahmoud Abbas demand for all of the contested areas be just the introductory sacrifice by Israel in order for there to be negotiations where Abbas will have his negotiators instruct the Israelis of their eventual demise within the next few months as President Obama, the United States military and all the NATO nations descend on Israel siding in its complete removal and sterilization of the lands purifying all of the area between the River and the Sea of every last vestige of Israeli heritage or sign of its ever having existed establishing the Arabs now known as Palestinians as the sole historic residents of the areas going back to the initial explosion which created the universe.

 

So, what is this French plan of which we have mentioned, you ask? Well, it can be simplified to a sentence or two. It calls for the restart of negotiations using the 1967 Lines (Green Lines) as the initial starting point for borders allowing for mutually agreeable exchanges of lands for establishing the final borders for both Israel and Palestine allowing for negotiations to last up to eighteen months and if no agreement can be reached by that point then the United Nations will establish borders based on the Green Line as they see acceptable and should this be a Chapter Seven Resolution, then it will be enforceable by use of force of arms. The force of arms is why having the United States not just oppose nor veto, nor only abstain, but to vote in favor of this plan and promise to fully support the enforcement at the end of the eighteen months with American military might. The one change I might think that Obama would demand be set is that the eighteen months countdown begin at some date past such as when the talks last collapsed such that he is assured that he will still be in office long enough to see the implementation by force of arms be carried out. And yes I do believe that President Obama would use force of arms to the point of overwhelming use of military might against Israel though he has refused to use it anywhere else. I can even make the argument whereby President Obama can make it appear that he has no other choice but to attack Israel to enforce the United Nations decree. He would initially refuse to use force of arms against Israel to force a solution which would then have the European Union and all the nations of Europe get cold feet and refuse to use force of arms and instead whine at Israel loudly and annoyingly in the hopes that such was enough (the question is would Israel even notice that Europe was now whining rather than droning on and on about the Palestinian Arabs). Finally, there would be a few nations who would tepidly send a few troops, certainly not sufficient to force five grandmothers to cross a street, and they would take over a hotel in Bethlehem or Ramallah and spend their time in the bar patting each other and commenting on their brave commitment. Finally there would be a single nation which would give Israel a deadline for them to leave the contested areas or else face the use of force to establish the terms of the French Proposal and enacted United Nations edict.

 

Next Turkey would mass naval forces offshore and land forces along the Golan Heights as there would be no Syrian forces to protest and the likely responsible entity would be Iran who would gladly approve and give permission. The Turkish troops would act as if they were advancing but not cross the Israel border though they would probably remove the fence and other restrictive barricades leaving a large defenseless area which would serve well for an attack. Eventually the Turkish forces would advance with speed towards the Israeli border accompanied by armor such as tanks and Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) eventually drawing an Israeli response which they would tout as a hail of bullets and munitions threatening Turkish troops who were not being threatening in any manner and were on the former nation of Syria’s side of the border. Turkey would then a few days later force an actual engagement which both sides would accuse the other of fomenting the firefight. Both sides would take casualties and Turkey would demand the support of the member nations under Article Five of the accord of which Turkey is still a member, for reasons that escape me. Then there would be a flurry of activity in Brussels and capital cities across Europe, the United Kingdom along with the United States and Canada all discussing what will eventually be a moot-point, whether or not they must support the call to arms by NATO member Turkey against Israel. Eventually, probably a very short eventually, they would realize that they were treaty bound. Here is the according of Article Five of the NATO Charter also known as the Washington Treaty:

Article 5 of the Washington Treaty

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

 

Once the NATO Alliance members have received an Article Five request and the aggression has been verified, something in such a scenario set-up above, such a debate would be quite short and soon followed by some deep breathes and a fair amount of hemming and hawing attempting to discover some way to avoid committing troops unless the United States leads the way. There would very likely be a brief statement made by President Obama in the White House during primetime evening hours so that the television stations could carry the announcement that despite reservations and with no desire to engage Israeli forces, the United States is treaty bound to come to the aid of a fellow NATO nation suffering attack while in support of an Article Seven Binding Resolution which the United States is also treaty bound to support and is why the United States has provided Turkey with intelligence data gathered by satellites and other means on the Israeli positions and troops movements etc. Such information was unnecessary which President Obama was aware when he offered such information in place of actual assistance. If one desires to know about any Israeli call-up of reserve forces, IDF troop movements, defensive placements and intended plans of actions, all a commander of an enemy force needs to have is a subscription to Haaretz and all the intelligence information will be in the first section, first page, with any above the fold coverage being of special and paramount importance to any opposing force. With the advent of the Article Five NATO treaty request as well as the Chapter Seven United Nations Security Council Resolution and all other considerations, President Obama would claim remorse and having his hands tied forcing his offering the complete and total support of the entirety of the United States military capabilities for the duration.

 

It is such a scenario which, no matter how ridiculous and impossible as it may appear, would force the United States to use force, that we can expect that in talks President Barack Obama likely personally told with French President Francois Hollande to submit the Israel Peace Resolution as a Chapter Six Resolution which is not binding even to the point of use of military force to implement. They would have noted that such would be sufficient to allow every nation wishing to do so to recognize the Green Line as the border of the new state of Palestine; it would still be debatable if the Green Line would then also be the recognized Israeli border. Then they would continue on debating over some fine French wine, some truffles, some foie gras stuffed into sautéed mushrooms and some coq au vin as to which nation would get to recognize Palestine officially. Of course this conversation would take place in Paris as when has President Obama ever used the phone when a trip to some luxurious location was the alternative as one can only be President for at most eight long travel mile years. Even with the recognition there will likely not be a clompete retreat from the contested lands and no way the Israelis will accept totality of defeat and be debating the terms of surrender after pulling back within the Green Line as Abbas demands. The demand is the insistence that Israel accept their defeat in a war of world public opinion and the talks Abbas describes would be to discuss the terms of Israeli surrender of all the lands all the way to the Sea along with a schedule for vacating the lands as the Arabs enlarge their state of Palestine until it reaches the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, just as the chant one can hear at every Israel Apartheid Week (or month) on their local university campus, a celebration required of any university deeming themselves relevant to the modern age of political correctness in all things and a required hatred of Israel and all things related including the concept of a Jewish State, the Jews having the same rights as any other peoples or simply against Jews period. The one thing which requires our attentions are to see whether the French Arab-Israeli peace talks resumption resolution is filed as a Chapter Six, non-binding resolution, or a Chapter Seven, binding resolution with required options for use of military force to implement should any nations or group challenge and not conform to the demands of said resolution. If the French resolution is filed as a Chapter Seven then we will be watching the debate and vote on whether or not the world should run full steam barreling headfirst into World War III. Isn’t it wonderful to live in “interesting times”, just as the old Chinese curse states.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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