Beyond the Cusp

June 3, 2016

Weeds in the MENA Garden

 

 

If one were to ask the European Union, the United States, the United Nations and the world media who is responsible for the unrest throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) the resounding echoes would continue to scream Israel for likely the rest of eternity, but is that an honest assessment or simply a knee jerk automatic programed response spurred by anti-Israel, anti-Zionist, anti-Semitic hatreds? The easiest way to tell would be to take a quick whirl around the MENA nations and see what the truth is. Let us start our excursion at the western edge and head to the east and see what we will see.

 

A map of MENA nations is almost up to date and is only missing the Sudan, and as the Sudan was split after years of tribal and religious violence, South Sudan; and some go so far as to include Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Djibouti, Eretria, and Somalia.

A map of MENA nations is almost up to date and is only missing the Sudan, and as the Sudan was split after years of tribal and religious violence, South Sudan; and some go so far as to include Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Djibouti, Eretria, and Somalia.

 

Coming into the North of Africa from the Atlantic Ocean the first country we would visit would be Western Sahara where we would find Morocco has occupied Western Sahara since 1975 in violation of resolutions by the United Nations Security Council and International Court of Justice ruling. Any efforts to dislodge Morocco from Western Sahara have been blocked directly by the United States whose full support of the Moroccan occupation shows no sign of relenting. The conflict reemerged as the “Independence Intifada” in 2005 which has remained as depicted in map below. Despite numerous efforts to defuse the situation the standoff remains.

 

Occupied Western Sahara  by Morocco Shaded Area  and Western Sahara Unshaded

Occupied Western Sahara
by Morocco Shaded Area
and Western Sahara Unshaded

 

Continuing on from the Morocco-Western Sahara conflict we next visit Mauritania which has had a rocky recent history including two military coups, the first was in 2005 followed eventually by elections for a new president in 2007 followed by the second coup in 2008. General Abdul Aziz took power after the coup but found the nation had few supporters amongst them predominantly were Morocco, Libya and Iran while the United States and European nations rejected the legitimacy of the coup continuing to refer to Abdallahi as the legitimate president of Mauritania. After the resignation of Abdallahi there were elections which allowed Abdel Aziz to become the civilian president. In February 2011 there were waves of unrest as the Arab Spring spread to Mauritania demanding President Mohamed Abdel Aziz institute political, economic, and legal reforms. The unrest culminated in April of 2012 as thousands of people in Mauritania attended demonstrations in the capital calling for President Mohamed Abdel Aziz to resign. Currently the nation is under military rule with the legal system based on Islam and Sharia.

 

Heading across the southern end the picture in Mali, Niger and Chad is the constant internal strife between Christian governments and Islamic uprisings with much of the major horrific attacks conducted by the terrorist group Boko Haram which literally means Western education is forbidden. Boko Haram follows Saudi Wahhabism and has pledged their loyalty to the Islamic State. Along the north there has been steady unrest in Algeria and especially Libya since the NATO backed coup where President Obama declared that the United States was leading from behind in the ouster of and eventual execution (murder) of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. In Libya the nation is in fractious rule of numerous terror groups and tribal armies with some having declared alliance with the Islamic State. In the south east there is the Sudan which bled in the south especially in the Darfur area. Eventually the Sudan was force to divide allowing South Sudan to become independent. In October of 2015, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir issued a decree establishing twenty-eight states in place of the ten constitutionally established states. The decree established the new states largely along ethnic lines. He took it to the parliament for approval as a constitutional amendment in November and the South Sudanese parliament empowered President Kiir to create new states.

 

This brings us to Egypt where the recent history has played out live and large in the Western media. The Arab Spring riots led to the removal of President and military strongman Mubarak. The elections were held fairly soon after Mubarak was forced to step down largely by the United States backing of the Muslim Brotherhood. These elections overwhelmingly approved Muslim Brotherhood candidate Morsi to the presidency and a large Muslim Brotherhood majority in the parliament. Within the year new rioting broke out protesting the implementation of Sharia despite warnings from Turkish President Erdogan to the Morsi government to slow their radical changes or face resistance. This led to the military removing Morsi and arresting him for election fraud. New election instated former General of the Army Sisi as President though he still had an Islamist and presumed Muslim Brotherhood controlled parliament. The Obama administration refused to recognize Sisi and demanded that Morsi be reinstated; a request which was roundly ignored. Unrest still exists between Egypt and the United States which will be resolved by the Presidential election this November in the United States. As to what either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump might choose to do is a complete mystery at the present time as neither has addressed foreign policy beyond Hillary’s claim to deep knowledge claiming her time as a Senator of New York and a stint as Secretary of State under President Obama which included the Benghazi, Libya fiasco amongst other miscues and Trump claiming to have conducted business deals with numerous foreign governments and met many world leaders though particulars remain largely unconfirmed. Egypt has also faced unrest largely from the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic State where both are vying for control of the Sinai from where they would presumably unseat Sisi and retake the presidency. Hamas in Gaza was seen as providing assistance to these and some Iranian backed groups in the Sinai thus earning themselves a complete sea and land embargo enforced by Egypt from their waters and land borders with Gaza. The Egyptian blockade is often ignored with the large amount of attention paid to the Israeli “blockade” which is actually an inspection of goods before allowing their delivery to Gaza usually within one or two days done to assure that weapons are not being imported by Hamas and the other terror groups which rule Gaza. Egypt too is a work in progress.

 

We will return to Israel subsequently but meanwhile on to Lebanon where the terror groups Hezballah runs the government with an opposition often afraid to act to remove the terror group as previous attempts have resulted in untimely deaths. Lebanon cannot be addressed without discussing Syria and the state of war which has more facets than hewn crystals. The main three forces are Syrian dictator Bashir al Assad who has retreated to the Alawite tribal areas along the Mediterranean coast and Lebanese border. Assad is backed by Iran and their proxy, Hezballah, out of Lebanon. These are the Shiite forces which also receive tactical support largely in the form of air strikes by the Russians who are protecting their port area along the Mediterranean coast. Inland there are Sunni groups, oft referred to as terror groups, supported largely by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Finally there are the forces of the Islamic State which stretch into Iraq where they face the Iraqi Army backed by Iran who uses mostly IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps) placing Iran at either end of the Islamic State. The Islamic State has been largely self-financed though there have been rumored support from Qatar. There is another group in northern Iraq and extending into northeastern Syria which is controlled by Kurdish Militias which are opposed strongly by Turkey. The Kurdish forces were at one time rumored to be receiving training by Israeli trainers on a clandestine mission though many have refuted that this was just a means of explaining the Kurdish forces resilience and holding their own against Islamist forces considered to be better equipped.

 

This takes us to the Saudi Peninsula and Jordan which we can count as a single unit of the GCC (Gulf Coordination Council) which is a group backed mostly by Saudi Arabia which includes Kuwait and the Gulf States and to a lesser extent, Jordan. Saudi Arabia has a close working relationship with the Egyptian government of President Sisi who are jointly facing terror groups including those supported or aligned with Islamic State as well as Iranian backed terrorists and the Houthi Tribes in the Yemen civil war, a front where Iran backed and Saudi Arabian backed forces are in direct confrontation. The United States has opposed and presumably attempted to prevent, though with little success, arms shipments to the Houthis by Iran and also opposed the bombing sorties from Saudi Arabia with equal lack of success and the belligerents continue to fight on. In the southernmost areas of Yemen, the prized areas which overlook the narrow passage from the Red Sea into the Arabian Sea, called Bab el-Mandeb Strait are a group of fighters originally claiming alliance with al-Qaeda but recently changing their alliance to presumably the Islamic State. These groups have benefited directly from Saudi raids as has the currently recognized Hadi-led government.

 

Yemen Battle Map

Yemen Battle Map

 

Lastly let us finally look at Israel. On the Golan Heights IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) have returned fire when fired upon by intention and otherwise has unofficial drop points for wounded individuals, civilian and combatant though no difference is noted, wounded and in need of treatment. IDF soldiers take these wounded and treat them in their field facility with the more serious cases transferred to Israeli hospitals for treatment. After treatment the individuals once sufficiently recovered are returned from whence they came at same drop points. All sides can view the individual drop points and all points are respected by other fighting factions in an unarranged agreement as all sides use this treatment method and no one side wishes to risk being cut-off from Israeli treatment and have to rely on whatever resources they have available. We have no information as to whether any Iranian forces have received treatment from the Israelis though if placed in civilian clothing they would receive the same treatment as any other individual. The Israeli border with Lebanon is currently quiet as Hezballah has sufficient on their plate with forces in the Syrian conflict and rumored even to have some fighting with IRGC or Houthis in Yemen. Intelligence believed to be accurate estimated that Hezballah has stores of rockets of varying size and capable of striking Tel Aviv, Bathsheva and even Ashkelon as well as guided missiles from Iran capable of striking anywhere in Israel including the southernmost port city of Eilat carrying warhead as large as two kilos and potentially five or ten up to one-hundred kilos warheads on their short and medium ranged rockets of which they possess as many as one-hundred-seventy-five-thousand. On their larger missiles they have warheads of as much as seven-hundred-fifty kilos on modified Zilzal-2 with a four-hundred km range and which they possess an estimated one thousand. Their Fateh-110 missile has a range three-hundred km range striking at Mach 3.5 carrying a four to seven-hundred kg warhead of which Hezballah possess more than twenty-thousand and lastly there is the Shaheen-II two stage missile which has a range of two-thousand km making able to strike anywhere in Israel and into Egypt. Each missile is capable of flight altitude of up to three-hundred km, is GPS guided, and varies a one-thousand plus kg warhead making it potentially capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and retaining it guidance hardware. It is doubtful that Iran has, let alone provided Hezballah with a deliverable nuclear warhead. Such is not far from the horizon for Iran but their providing Hezballah with such a weapon is doubtful.

 

The remaining fronts for Israel are with Jordan and Egypt which are both peaceful and with the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Judea and Samaria as well as with Hamas and ally Islamic Jihad and other terror and criminal groups in Gaza. The front with the PA is largely one where there are terror strikes which can be planned by Abbas and the his PLO terror groups or the less planned but instigated through calls for violence from PA figures, PLO figures or any of a litany of groups most of which are either headed by Mahmoud Abbas or are willful practitioners at his beck and call. The most recent round were stabbings carried out largely by Palestinian Arab and some Israeli Arab youths as well as car rammings along with rock and Molotov cocktail throwing with rioting which are carried out routinely by PA controlled terror groups, the Tamini family instigators who work closely with European Union and other European NGOs whose main aims are to cause any violent response by Israel which is filmed and the instigation causing the defensive act is edited and with careful editing and juxtaposition of stock footage, prerecorded footage or actual footage with any questionable instigations by the Arabs edited over or out completely compiled into the final product which is then transmitted throughout European news agencies within a matter of a couple of hours and they run with it unedited as if it were an actual news story followed by their governments and the European union then condemning Israel for use of disproportional force or the commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The Gaza front is another area where Iran attempts with some success to smuggle arms mostly containing rocket motors and rocket parts and technology. Funding for Hamas comes from UNRWA as well as from the PA making the European Union, United States, United Nations and individual European nations as well as numerous Arab countries direct or indirect financiers of Hamas terrorism and rocket attacks as well as Arab instigations and propaganda which permeates their entire society from their media to the schools, summer camps soccer leagues and every aspect of childhood and raising the children to hate Jews as well as Israel. The Hamas Charter calls not only for the annihilation of Israel but of Jews worldwide. Similar language is found in Islamic Jihad and Hezballah pamphlets and charters or constitutions. The hatred goes well beyond Israel and includes Jews everywhere as well as Western culture and societies. Hamas and their allies as well as Hezballah desire a world caliphate under Sharia and openly claim so. The main difference is whether the caliphate would be Shiite or Sunni, for the rest of us that is a minor comfort.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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April 20, 2016

Jerusalem Bus Bombing Should Rule All Options Valid

 

The political winds are blowing on the campaign trails as well as the White House. On the campaign trail Bernie Sanders still points to the use of force against Hamas as “disproportional” because there was more damage, casualties and deaths in Gaza than there was in Israel. By Senator Saunders’ system of a fair and balanced war, the allies in World War II were probably the most disproportionate war criminals of all time. Where the bombing of London and other British cities was likely balanced by the bombing of Berlin, Frankfort and other German cities; they then used excessive force in the European theater leveling the entirety of Marseilles, Dresden and the entirety of land in what was determined to be a general series of bombing which would disenchant the German and Italian forces, peoples and citizens even in occupied France and central Europe on into Poland with Germany to receive the bulk of the saturation bombings carried out by the British by night and the Americans by day. Below is a map of the sorties and bombings on Axis targets in defeating the Italian and German fronts by the United States and British air power. It can be noted with even the most casual glance that very little escaped being struck at some point by Allied bombings which was unsurprising when bombing was carried out day and night, day after day, in darkness, overcast skies and clear days where targets could actually be recognized and still the probability of striking any specific target would have one bomb per score dropped actually striking the target on the best days and operational conditions. It becomes obvious that even the targeted bombings in Germany and much of Austria, Belgium and eastern France were buried by the amount of bombs dropped across the entire areas. This was not proportional according to Senator Sanders’ definitions but I doubt anybody would have referred to the bombing campaign against the Nazis a using disproportional force as any force was permissible as this was war.

 

Bombings on Axis Targets in Defeat of Italy and Germany by the United States and British Air Power with Red Denotes Saturation Bombing While Colors Denote Specific Sites Targeted
Bombings on Axis Targets in Defeat of Italy and Germany
by the United States and British Air Power with
Red Denotes Saturation Bombing While
Colors Denote Specific Sites Targeted

 

Another bombing which would not have met with the approval by Senator Sanders would have been the firestorms in Tokyo and the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the United States ending the war by convincing Emperor Shōwa (昭和天皇) Hirohito (裕仁) that his Japan would be completely destroyed and could not win against such power. One need remember the night of March 9-10 (“Operation Meetinghouse”), where 334 B-29s took off to raid with 279 of them dropping 1,665 tons of bombs on Tokyo that the civilian casualties 97,000 killed and 125,000 wounded in the ensuing firestorm which razed entire neighborhoods especially in the eastern half of Tokyo. Further were the dates of August 6 and August 9, 1945 and the dropping of two nuclear bombs, Hiroshima where over 20,000 soldiers were killed along with 70,000–146,000 civilians and Nagasaki where 35,000-80,000 people were instantly killed and some 50,000 others suffered burns or died by the end of 1945. These were the only wartime use of such weapons but with the new threats forming on the horizon in an ominous fashion, one cannot be assured that they will have been the final use of such weapons. One need remember that the super weapons which end wars become the weapons of choice in the next such war.

 

Hiroshima Before and After Atomic Bomb

Hiroshima Before and After Atomic Bomb

 

Nagasaki Before and After Atomic Bomb

Nagasaki Before and After Atomic Bomb

 

The pictures above beg the question as to exactly, Senator Sanders, would be proportional after the bombing and burning beyond recognition of two buses, one with a load of passengers amongst whom more than twenty civilians were injured with many still recovering in hospital with the most severely injured on respirators and in critical care wards. Exactly what is the formula one should use in determining the correct number of casualties? Would it be a direct one for one or does one make the determination of percent of total populations where there are 2,100,000,000 Muslims and not even 14,500,000 Jews worldwide; so do we need to make each Jew injured represent up to 150 Muslims or does your math demand only a one for one ratio? How does the modern Arab/Israeli conflict deserve a different scrutiny than the allied powers of the two World Wars and countless other conflicts throughout history? Could you please clarify for the rest of the world and for Israel, Putin and others who are combating terror?

 

Jerusalem Buses Burning from Terrorist Bombing Young Man with Leg Injuries, Young Lady with Burned Arms and Legs Plus Mother of 16 Year Old with Extensive Burns on Respirator, Man Who Had Cell Phone Explode Adding Hand Injury to Wounds
Jerusalem Buses Burning from Terrorist Bombing
Young Man with Leg Injuries, Young Lady with Burned Arms and Legs
Plus Mother of 16 Year Old with Extensive Burns on Respirator,
Man Who Had Cell Phone Explode Adding Hand Injury to Wounds

 

The injured from the two buses and a number of vehicles which all burned beyond recognition with one of the buses and most of the other vehicles involved were made the victims of this horrific terrorist bombing with a fair number still clinging to life, some on near to full life support while others simply working their way through being burned and some having serious other wounds caused by the metallic shrapnel from the explosive device which was packed with nuts, bolts and screws with potentially other objects which ended being lodged in the victims’ bodies. This attack itself, by primarily targeting civilians, as was the obvious when the initial blast was within one of these city buses which seldom carry solely military personnel and are almost always filled with young civilians who depend on mass transit to take them wherever their lives require of them, was a war crime. But Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, John Kasich and Ted Cruz aside, Israel got a warning of things to come and how completely unconcerned the terror leadership including Mahmoud “the instigating maestro” Abbas as well as Hamas, Islamic State and Islamic Jihad, al-Qaeda, al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades and the rest populating Gaza as well as Judea and Samaria (West Bank) are at bringing death and destruction attacking civilians in the most public fashion and in broad daylight. All the above groups celebrated the attempt to slaughter Israelis heaping praise upon whoever planned this cowardly attack.

 

Further, American Vice President Biden also denounced and scorned Israel as part of his speech given to J-Street, a Jewish pro-Palestinian anti-Zionist and extremely discouraged on Netanyahu winning another term as they believe as does President Obama that it is Netanyahu who is at fault and that Abbas is willing to make peace if only Israel was reasonable. By reasonable Abbas means that all the Jews return to New York City, even if they have never even visited there; so he can make his Palestinian State as he desires, on Israel’s grave. Even should he be granted a state presented on a silver platter with the keys to every building on the Temple Mount; if by assuming such a state, elections would still be required. Abbas knows that if elections are held soon thereafter he would be a dead man or seeking asylum in person in New York himself. The numbers do not lie, they tell the story. When 65% support stabbing Israeli civilians, 89% want to live under an Islamic State run by Sharia law, 84% want to stone adulterers to death and 66% support killing any Muslim who leaves Islam and a two-to-one majority want Abbas out of power with a majority would approve of his being tried for crimes against the Palestinians and then have a proper trial followed by as proper public hanging. No, Abbas will never accept a state in any way, shape or kind as without the IDF protection he becomes a dead man walking.

 

Still, there are rumors floating that Putin and Obama desire giving Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad the Golan Heights from which to shoot at Israelis as he had before in the hopes such would gain him support, or at least sympathy, from the Syrian street thus returning to rule as the leader in the war against Israel. There have been additional balloons floated since we reported on the Huffington Post trial balloon over President Obama simply by edict using the powers of the Security Council to recognize a Palestinian State using the Green Line as the borders including giving all of the Old City of Jerusalem to the Arabs. This would be right in line with the recent ruling by UNESCO that the entirety of the Temple Mount has no roots or bearing from Jewish or Hebrew history and is exclusively and completely an Islamic site including the churches and other structures and historic sites there including the Western Wall and Kotel Plaza, the area where the Sermon on the Mount and Jesus’s crucifixion all took place as well as the area the location of the Holy of the Holies. Such a ruling by President Obama would be unenforceable as there are close to three-fourths of a million if not more Jews residing in Judea and Samaria as well as the thousands of Jews moved from their properties in the Old City where they fought in the courts to finally have their properties returned to them when the area was liberated from Jordanian occupation and the majority of Arabs residing in Eastern Jerusalem, all of whom have Israeli identification cards, who would rush as far as they were able westward to assure they would end up residing in Israel and not any Palestinian “nightmare” State. Both of these ideas have been floated thus taking by United Nations Security Council binding resolutions to take the Golan Heights and all lands liberated from Jordan and hand them over to what would almost immediately in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and soon thereafter with Hezballah likely to be tasked by Assad and Putin to hold the Golan Heights and attack Israelis whenever targets of opportunity present themselves. Additionally, any State set up in the Palestinian Authority areas would become an entity where the people would vote for Hamas, if not the Islamic State, as soon as they were allowed to vote. This fact explains why Mahmoud Abbas has spent a decade in office on his original term of four years which he claimed when he replaced the dead Yasser Arafat. There would be no such confusion or direct route to lead any state which President Obama would spend the political capital to present the Arabs because there would be a demand that an election decide who would rule the state.

 

The hope by President Obama to establish the State of Palestine will never fly as the leadership will immediately become terrorist and it would be a failed state where the terror masters would live lavish lives while the rest of the people who were not directly supporting the terror leaders would be destitute living in camps which would make the current camps become suddenly appealing. Should the Security Council only make the resolution under Chapter Six, then Israel would have the option of ignoring the vote as it would be a strong suggestion and nothing more. That would force President Obama for his legacy, his current Middle East North Africa (MENA) legacy, to be mired in failure from Egypt to Syria to Iran and Iraq, in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and especially Nigeria and Libya and particularly Benghazi, a failure which will have a high profile this election season, all failures across the board so Obama appears to be looking to blame Israel and Netanyahu for all his sorrows, and it will blow-up in Obama’s face along with his brain trust of Powers and Rice who have taken turns at Senior Security Advisor and United Nations Ambassador and have lied and spun until dizzy enough to collapse in a tizzy and become as useless and weak as their boss. Obama attempting to form his legacy on the graves of tens if not hundreds of thousands, hopefully nowhere near millions of Jewish graves as he carves up Israel’s security locations such as the Golan Heights, the Jordan River overlooking highlands and even any area along the Jordan River forcing an Israeli retreat. Such a retreat would only occur if Israeli retreat was in response to force of arms which would entail American boots on the ground enforcing Palestine and shooting Jews in Hevron, in Jerusalem, across Biblical lands of the Hebrews and Jews of Judea all in the name of enlightened knowing it all and making the solution by force which will fail as soon as he pulls out the United States troops, something the Americans would likely demand. The suffering this would cause is heart wrenching and unthinkable. Where are the American voices in opposition or has the media refused to point out what is being planned to be implemented either in the late summer in the United Nations and in mid if troops are to be deployed. Listen carefully for rumors of wars which will become actual wars without American people and vigilance, the first requirement for freedom and liberty, the second is acting to right wrongs and doing so before they come to fruition.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

September 26, 2015

Islamic State, the Balance of Power, and the Imbalance of Refugees

 

Journalist, Jurgen Todenhofer, age 75, claims to have managed to be embedded within Islamic State in his newly released book “Inside IS – Ten Days in the Islamic State” and warns that the terror group, self-proclaimed as the new Caliphate and ruler of lands larger than the United Kingdom with borders across central Iraq and southern Syria is planning the most horrific religious cleansing in world history. The one thing which must be made clear is planning or even believing is a far cry from actually doing. As a child I dreamt about many unattainable goals including being the next King of Siam after watching Yul Brynner and Deborah Kerr in the King and I (imagine my upset when I realized that Siam was no longer a country and had become Thailand). The attack Mr. Todenhofer writes about, as disclosed in an excerpt released from his book, entails “the terrorists plan on killing several hundred million people. The west is drastically underestimating the power of ISIS.” This would be accomplished by Islamic State acquiring numerous nuclear weapons in order to unleash a “nuclear tsunami preparing the largest religious cleansing in history.”

 

Speaking to his trepidations before spending time within the Islamic State Mr. Todenhofer relates that, “Of course I’d seen the terrible, brutal beheading videos and it was of course after seeing this in the last few months that caused me the greatest concern in my negotiations to ensure how I can avoid this. Anyway, I made my will before I left.” Further comments told of how he had held intense negotiations with “the leadership of the Caliphate, via Skype, over several months, hammering out the security details.” Mohammed Emwazi (Jihadi John of beheading fame) oversaw Mr. Todenhofer on his visit and likely acted as translator and facilitator as well. The most unnerving part of the article told that this self-proclaimed war correspondent’s claims that the Islamic State “are supported by an almost ecstatic enthusiasm the like of which I’ve never encountered before in a war zone. Every day hundreds of willing fighters from all over the world come.” He went further stating, “They are the most brutal and most dangerous enemy I have ever seen in my life. I don’t see anyone who has a real chance to stop them. Only Arabs can stop IS. I came back very pessimistic.”

 

If Mr. Todenhofer’s assessment that “Only Arabs can stop IS” is accurate then the world is in much worse shape than I had realized or even in my worst nightmares ever imagined. My bet is that Mr. Todenhofer is quite probably not a veteran of any armed services and has drastically underestimated the power and force a well-trained Marine or Army infantry company can apply on a battlefield and the horrific amounts of force they can project when backed by modern artillery, air support using helicopter gunships, A-10 Warthogs (I am likely dating myself but these are some ferocious and intimidating close air support and an infantryman’s most welcome sight against armor, even the stolen armor that IS currently uses) and other support features too numerous to name. Another contributing force multiplier is intelligence and battlefield awareness. Being able to see the entire battlefield using drones, satellites or even overflight with high altitude spy planes and knowing where the enemy is and in what numbers and with what resources is invaluable. Taking nothing away from Mr. Todenhofer assessments, a modern military attacking in force would dismantle the bulk of the Islamic State forces within six weeks if it even took that long and once that had been accomplished, the rest would disintegrate right along with their presentation of invulnerability.

 

What is more worrisome is the idea which appears to have infected much of the Islamic world that they have been chosen by Allah to rule over the world and to make all follow Islam or be subjugated as a second class human being or face the wrath of the Islamic sword, the beheading thing which Islamic State has shown such a great propensity to utilize as a weapon of fear. Equally depressing is the predisposition in the Western world that such an idea as world conquest had passed permanently into history and is no longer viewed as a viable goal. Where that is quite a valid assessment of the Western mindset, that is nowhere near universal truth and there are still many sources of thoughts for world conquest. We have seen numerous such thoughts ever since World War II starting with the Soviet Communists and followed by the Chinese Communists and also from Saddam Hussein, the Saudi Wahabbists, the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda, Hamas, Iranian Mullahs, Hezballah and now Islamic State and I am certain there are others. The one weakness the West suffers is their inability to view the world through the eyes of other peoples, places, religions, political ideologies, nationalities or any filter other than their own. Much of the Western world would have difficulty even seeing things through other Western national viewpoints. It is just such a weakness which makes the West vulnerable as they rule out any ability to see the potential ramifications of many of the threats they currently or may in the future face. We saw just such weakness with understanding what Hitler was planning and that he also believed he was destined to have his Reich rule the world and would have succeeded if not for some very fortuitous developments.

 

More precisely it will be necessary for Western powers, potentially partnering with such rivals as Russia and China, to develop the means and implementation of a monitoring of nuclear materials and especially those which can be utilized or have already been used to produce nuclear weapons, both atomic and thermonuclear weapons. There must be a network of detectors, be they space based or ground based, that will alert all parties involved whenever any such materials or weapons are moved from any point to another locations for any number of reasons. First and foremost it would reveal any potential intention to use such weapons either as a threat, or even worse, a first strike weapon. Such a system if deployed universally as a part of an international treaty similar or as an attachment to the NPT (Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty) where all nuclear armed states would be subjected to such monitoring equipment and those nations wishing to avail themselves of the protection of advanced warning of the movement of nuclear weapons or nuclear materials. Such would minimize the ability for rogue entities such as the Islamic State to achieve nuclear terrorism as they would be incapable of acquiring such weapons without their movement being detected. Further, any nations not a signatory to such a treaty would become suspect and with sufficient peer pressure be coerced into signing this treaty. It should be noted that this treaty would not be used as a method for spying and revealing the numbers or types of nuclear weapons any particular nation may possess and would only relate when such materials were moved without first informing the other signatories of such intents. Such would also be useful in tracking nuclear waste from power plants and the safety of any nuclear power fuel shipments thus making sure that such shipments were making their way as per their intended path for delivery.

 

In the meantime it would be worth noting the potential for the Islamic State to make good on their threats to use nuclear weapons or at the very least dirty bombs to lay waste to as many lives as they would have the capability must not be underestimated. The potential for the Islamic State to acquire the necessary weapons and managing to smuggle them into place must not be dismissed as impossible without detection as has been proven with every terror attack since the world received the massive and tragic wake-up call on 9/11 and the felling of the World Trade Center towers and striking the Pentagon and only by the brave actions of the passengers was a fourth far more serious calamity avoided as they sacrificed themselves rather than be used as a terror weapon. How many attacks, not just the main assaults such as London, Madrid, Mumbai or others but even the small “lone wolf” terror acts such as the much overlooked Trolley Square attacks in Utah reported in our article >a href=http://wp.me/pIou8-Z target=blank>Terror Attack at Trolley Square Mall, Utah. We could needlessly list other such attacks as well as the better known but it is already obvious that when it comes to preventing terror attacks the authorities have not been a full hundred percent successful. I would not dare to venture that they have not very probably done an herculean job of catching and preventing far more terror attacks than we will ever know about as such success is best guarded by keeping the unknowing, unknowing. Such efforts become all the more difficult when it becomes known how they attain their information thus we are not told when a terror attack was thwarted, or at least hopefully not every time as I am hopeful that there have been far more prevented than the paltry numbers we have been privileged to.

 

The real problem facing the Western world as its primary challenge and the rest of the world is simply due to the suffering and loss of life the current resurgence of Jihadi terror and militant actions of which the Islamic State and is the latest broad-frontal-threat the world is facing. The most tragic deaths and largest numbers slain by the Islamic State have been those of other Muslims and the minority who live in the immediate areas which have come under the Islamic States’ terror war victories. Mosul lost the entirety of their Christian population as they either fled or died within days of that city of over one and a half million people where the Christian population fled if fortunate and were otherwise converted or murdered or both while from surrounding areas of Mosul the Yazidis and Shabaks are kidnapped, converted, murdered or forced to flee with little more than the clothes on their backs while their cultural and holy sites faced destruction. Even were Islamic State to be utterly defeated and their will broke and forces killed or scattered, the ideas of Islamic supremacy and reforming the Caliphate to regain the glories of the seventh through fifteenth centuries would continue and be utilized by the next al-Baghdadi or Osama bin Laden in gathering a following and by winning a few high profile battles claiming to be the real deliverer to bring Islam back to the dominance it once knew would be in the making and potentially the next great threat. We need remember that al-Qaeda was presumably destroyed, the Taliban routed yet both have made comebacks though they are currently outshone by Islamic State and before al-Qaeda there was Hezballah, Hamas, the PLO, the Muslim Brotherhood, which was the progenitor of Hamas, al-Qaeda, PLO and others, and before any of these were the Ottoman Empire and the original Caliphate which burst out from the Arabian Peninsula and spread as far as western France at one end of Europe and eventually to the outskirts of Venice in the east leaving Europe all but overrun.

 

Expansion of Islam Across MENA and threaten Europe before Ottoman Rule

Expansion of Islam Across MENA and threaten Europe before Ottoman Rule

 

 

The same driving force behind that expansion of Islam is being reawakened today and the only thing that lies between a similar expansion today is the military power of the West, in particular the United States, though one would be hard pressed to prove that at this juncture. As far as what will it take for the United States to use its forces to put an end to the Islamic designs on world conflict, which is not something which can be brought to an end by sheer force of arms; force of arms can only push it back into remission. The world has been experiencing one extremely long hudna, what is by strict definition a ceasefire of ten years length during which the Islamic forces regroup, train and achieve military superiority and as soon as the forces of Islam believe they have sufficient means to defeat their enemy they may break the ceasefire and attack without warning of any kind. Needless to point out that the other side is not afforded such advantageous terms and must abide by the ceasefire even after the ten years has passed as they have been told that this was a treaty in that when the power opposing Islam claimed they were signing a treaty the Islamic leaders are obliged to inform them that they call it a hudna. The opposition replies, treaty, hudna, what’s the difference and the Islamic leaders reply, think as you will or some such non-comment. Such deceit is called Taqiyya as defined in the graphic below. This prolonged hudna was entered into by the Ottoman Empire after their defeat during World War I. There have been treaties, or so treated by the signatories, with Islamic forces since then with the treaties between Israel and Egypt and Jordan respectively being the most obvious. The fragility of these treaties became all the more evident during the one year in which the Muslim Brotherhood through President Morsi ruled Egypt and there were almost daily calls for them to end the peace with Israel and to reopen warfare and finally and once more trounce Israel in a race back across the Suez Canal, assuming the results mirrored their previous encounters. President Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood advisors did not perceive any advantage and the peace held solely due to the uncertainty of doubt of their ability to defeat Israel, nothing more.

 

Taqiyya defined in plain and simple easy to understand terms

Taqiyya defined in plain and simple easy to understand terms

 

 

There is yet another front where the religious war of Islam against everybody else is being played out and that is the infiltration and undermining of European governance and the slow Islamization of large neighborhoods in many of the European capitals and major cities where the Muslim areas are run under some form of Sharia and the police of the city or nation dare not tread. Even fire and ambulance service is often problematic at best with the fire department being either unable to respond to fires started during rioting or needing armed escort to extinguish the fires. Even under normal conditions there are doubts as to the safety of firefighters should they response to an alarm in one of these areas. Even people riding busses, trolleys or subways which pass through these neighborhoods often find themselves molested or otherwise terrorized. Women are particularly vulnerable to harassment and sexual intimidations and molestations or worse depending on the time of day or night. The current refugee situation and the floods of refugees from the east originating in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and other areas of the Middle East plus the inundation of the beaches along the Mediterranean from origins such as Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Egypt, Cameroon, Morocco and other North African nations threaten to overrun Europe. These Muslim refugees very easily could produce a long term problem far more dangerous than the financial burden these refugees, many unskilled, not fluent in any European languages and traumatized by the situations which sent them fleeing seeking a better chance at life. If not already radicalized, the next generation or the one after could be easy targets for radicalization being sold the ideas that the Europeans are racist and have stolen their future and taken from their communities all the wealth and left them without hope or any possible way out other than to take back that which has been denied them. Once any riots start they will begin a cycle where the charges become self-fulfilling as security forces attempt to restore order which will simply be met with cries demanding that the police be withdrawn as they are simply reinforcing the message and oppressing the Muslims, especially the out of work youths and young adults. As many will have attended madrassa instead of public schools, they will have an excellent memorization of the Quran and will be capable of siting the Hadiths as well as the Five Pillars of Islam (see below chart).

 

Five Pillars of Islam

 

 

With an idea coming to the fore and gaining adherents partially due to the flow of information proving to many that the world has a very slanted wealth curve and except for a small percentage, that wealth curve has been unfavorable to the Islamic world. Further, it has also been proven that grievance mongering and terrorism pay and pay very well. Further, as a leader of terror and being the mouthpiece extolling the masses about their having been cheated out of their share of the wealth which was gained often at the cost of the natural resources of the Muslim world, one never need actually do anything about the inequality beyond assuring their own place at the receiving end of the cash flow. Further, should one choose their targets selectively, they can rail against the inequality without any real fear of retribution; something which would come violently and swiftly should they attack the Western world instead of pointing the finger at those wealthy oil sheiks or the corrupt leaders who have stolen from the poor far more than the average Westerner despite the Western citizens having vastly more wealth. Additionally, there is money to be made trafficking humans to the “promised lands where the streets are paved with gold.” These refugees are not offered a home in any of the wealthy Arab states who have far greater wealth and space to absorb them but that might cost the leaders a trip to Monte Carlo and that would be a travesty greater than the plight of their brothers and sisters. The Europeans should demand that at the very least two-thirds of these refugees be accepted and cared for by their wealthy cousins in the oil rich regions of the Arabian Peninsula. Instead the leaders of the Islamic and Arab worlds are viewing this situation as their best hope for conquering Europe without firing a shot or having to spend any of their own monies. All they need do is point the refugees northwestward and then wait for the demographic change which will overtake Europe within three or four generations. Then the Islamic world will look more like the map below.

 

Arab and Muslim World After the Islamization of Europe except for Switzerland and Israel in Red Both Standing Against any Islamic Assault or Tide

 

 

The choice facing European leaders at this juncture is whether they will leave a legacy that will bring an end to Christian Europe and all the advances of the Enlightenment or to find an alternative to permanently settling the refugees now streaming into Europe by any and all means at their disposal. What alternative you ask? One might be to set up camps at the entry points and through the European Union use funds to pay for the camps with the understanding that the refugees housed in these camps will be returned to their homelands as soon as conditions there improve. This means for some that end would be immediate as there is no war zone in Pakistan, Afghanistan or much of North Africa outside of Libya and in the Middle East the same applies except for Iraq and Syria. Another step the Europeans might want to look at is assisting in ending the Syrian civil war and end the bloodshed while also combating the Islamic State otherwise the fighting is not going to end. None of these options are pretty nor are any of them desirable. What the Europeans are facing is an unenviable choice of which evil is the least damaging and which side should face the damage. Asking for Europe to absorb the hundreds of thousands if not millions of refugees which could be aimed at them is asking for Europe to commit suicide. It is not financially responsible for the Europeans to attempt to care for, house, feed, educate and provide health care for any of these refugees which neither are not exactly their problem nor is the problem one caused by Europe for the most part. Europe has sufficient problems with their own poor and wretched underclasses which have stretched the majority of European national budgets near the breaking point. Adding even more on top would be more than most European nations could absorb, let alone pay for. Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and the eastern European nations are facing slow growth or no growth economic indicators and are at risk of defaulting if they have not already done so. The only nations currently having healthy, relatively healthy, economic outlooks are Britain, France and Germany, not necessarily in that order. Even the best of these three could easily be subsumed economically and dragged into the same quagmire facing Greece as an example. None of the European nations can absorb over a million unemployed and destitute refugees and expecting them to do so is next to lunacy, which is exactly why that is exactly what is going to happen. The real problem is what will become of such a situation where refugees take funds beyond their contribution to repay in the next half millennia the Europeans will themselves seek a solution in traditional European fashion and that will not be a pretty sight. Such may lead to the next great conflagrations as it spills over into the Middle East and perhaps beyond. This will not end well no matter how it initially shakes out and gets past the lockout and closed borders currently facing the refugees.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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