Beyond the Cusp

February 18, 2016

Republicans Need a Real, Honest and True Blue Candidate

 

The Republican establishment is obviously and understandably troubled about the primaries thus far and the results. There is the obvious problem when Donald Trump, not even a true moderate conservative, takes about the thirty to thirty-five percent or potentially more in the primaries thus far. Then there is Ted Cruz who grabbed second at the Iowa Caucus and will present a problem in many southern and mid-western states even into western states and past the Rocky Mountains. Ted Cruz is also not of their favorite centrist mediocracy. That leaves them bouncing around with their earliest choice of Jeb Bush failing in the early primaries needing to have a large showing in the upcoming South Carolina primary or his candidacy will be in dire straits. The next two hopes for the party elite are John Kasich and Marco Rubio and one had best excite the people sufficiently to become the sole opponent who can take on Trump and press the rest into the background if not out of the race. Ben Carson was a dream which honestly had next to no chance as we discovered with my House of Representatives campaign, the parties make sure that no outsider can break into the top tier as they keep the media concentrating where they desire and never ever will light fall on those not already in the game or wealthy enough to demand a place as that is the sorry case of politics the world over.

 

Now, making such even more obvious is that only those of the game or of great wealth may play in the political arena thus making all others unacceptable. Carly Fiorina has more management experience than all the candidates with the exception of “The Donald” and did something almost unheard of; she mastered the first debate winning herself a place in the top tier for debate number two. They likely believed that in with tougher competition she would wilt and they would be done with her challenge of the real politicians and actual worthies of high office. Carly Fiorina did not wilt but rather rose to the occasion in the second debate and received some recognition. The opening came in the third debate where her one slightest miscue and the combined accusations repeated and repeated and then came the silence, the dreaded silence from which her candidacy could never return, she was locked out. Now the Republicans are reaping what they sewed. They are stuck with a choice of political mediocracy versus, one fanatical religious moralist and one wealthy, boorish, unhinged faux-conservative and an unexcited base. Donald Trump has cornered approximately one third of the electorate with a fair number being new voters who would simply lose interest as soon as Trump leaves the candidate field. Ted Cruz has another third in the most religious conservatives who also might remain at home come the election if their demanding concerns are not met. The remaining third divided amongst the “mainstream candidates” will only matter if they are whittled down to a single challenger. As long as there is no singular candidate the division changing from one primary to the next leaves the Republican elite in an uncomfortable quandary about whom to promote above the others. That is their problem going forward with their hopes pinned on somebody breaking that stalemate and doing so as soon as possible.

 

 

Republican Candidates into South Carolina

Republican Candidates into South Carolina

 

 

There is a malady, a malaise if you will, and there are dark forces not the least of which is Iran once again and American hostages and the propaganda showing the United States as bent and broken by the masters of Iran. These Iranian leaders now believe their time to rule all has come. The United States has been humbled before the world once again just as they were in 1979 as United States President Jimmy Carter was stymied and unable to liberate the fifty-two hostages (the names of the hostages can be read here) of the original sixty-six who were captured United States Embassy in Tehran on Nov. 4, 1979, and including three who were at the Iranian Foreign Ministry, the last of which were finally released on Jan. 20, 1981 as the inauguration of Ronald Reagan was scheduled for later that day. At least the most recent incident with the capture of ten Navy seamen and woman did not devolve into an extended hostage crisis leading to months of captivity as the Iranians await the election before deciding whether to continue the crisis or not as in 1979-81 ordeal. Instead the Iranians exploited their time while holding the American Naval service personnel starting with the released pictures and videos of the Americans with their shoes removed, kneeling and hands raised behind their heads with armed Iranian IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) intimidating and despairing them including one video of one sailor in tears. It was later learned that the Iranians had paraded their Hostage Navy personnel through the streets further humiliating them and making a spectacle of their detainment. We could label this President Obama’s hostage crisis which he resolved much faster than had President Carter, but at what price?

 

The Republican Party elite may be consoling themselves feeling confident whichever candidate comes out the far end of the primary election will very likely be capable of defeating Hillary Clinton as they perceive her to be an easy candidate to defeat and the chosen one of the Democrat Party. They could be wrong on both counts. First off, if his early success in the Democrat primaries is any indication, Bernie Sanders could easily become the Democrat Presidential Candidate as he has drawn the youth vote out in massive numbers, much the same as elected Barack Hussein Obama twice. I am still having difficulty wrapping my arms around twice as if they did not learn. But then again the heirs of Obama’s policies will be out voting for his philosophical cousin, Bernie Sanders, making it appear to be a lack of worldly experience. So, a Bernie Sanders candidate facing the Republican with the same devotion of those too young to be trusted with the office voting for him in droves along with the normative thirty-to-forty percent Democrat voters makes for an impressive obstacle. Truthfully, Hillary (at this point, what difference does it make) Clinton would be a far easier candidate against which the base would come out and vote if for no other reason other than to keep her: abortion at any date even to include ten minutes after giving birth to as much as three weeks afterwards, guns only for the privileged and government, public schools including colleges for all except the elite, and taxes on all but the very poor but never to raise and probably lower capital gains taxes so the rich can remain untouched, kept out of ever walking in the White House other than a guided tour, and strictly checked for stealing more silverware, with the rest of the unwashed. The republicans have to face reality that should anybody other than Trump get the nomination two-thirds of his supporters will remain home disgusted with the process and if Ted Cruz does not get the nomination almost all of his supporters will remain home, and that holds true even for Marco Rubio. If you need proof of what we claim simply walk amongst the denizens of Oklahoma, the second most conservative state and ask the people in Tulsa or Oklahoma City to name the Republicans vying for their support and should it be Trump or Cruz then ask who it is they desire to win and finally ask them which one of Kasich, Rubio or Bush they might support and you will receive your answer.

 

So, the dilemma simply put. The Trump base will not support any other of those still considered viable and the Cruz base likewise will not support any others and what you have is a wholesale defeat against Clinton who Democrats will vote for even if they must close their eyes and hold their noses making sure not to breath for thirty seconds before pulling that lever and a full minute after. There will be special schools in freediving booked by Democrats simply to master holding their breath. So, your base and best candidates are poison to one third of your base and without them we get four and likely eight years of Clinton or worse, six years and a month of Bernie Sanders as he serves a term and a half after reelection, Socialist with that capital ‘S’ with Hillary as his Vice President and then just the slimmest margin less than a decade of Hillary as President of what is left of the United States. What is it that the Republican base is really seeking? Here is your question Republican elites, what will be the force which can galvanize the party and to be fully and completely supportive and actively campaigning for the candidate and include those Trump supporters as well as the Cruz supporter even if neither end up their choice for Vice President and who if even they pick Chris Christie as their running mate they lose not a single vote or supporter? So, what would such a candidate look like and what qualities should he possess?

 

Let us build that perfect candidate. First and foremost he has to have a background of some form of personal motivation and business savvy unto which Trump would bow with respect. He would need to be a true through and through conservative whose sweat of their brow would dissolve Roe vs Wade and to whom Cruz would move aside graciously. He would need to be one who in that pivotal moment where he cast all he had ever dreamed of aside for the merit of what Hashem would hold as noble came almost naturally. This person would only not be faulted if he was incapable of walking on water yet many would believe he not only could but has whenever he chose. A military man (and it could also be a woman), as all recognize the need for such as is necessary in these times of great challenge and unbelievable provocations could stand easily in the breach. A candidate whose mere presence on the stage would coerce any moderator to act deferentially and silence even the shrew that is Hillary and make Bernie Sanders be as a cartoonish character on the stage of debate. What it would take is a candidate with an impeccable character, a near perfect past, the respect of people across the political spectrum and an unparalleled grasp of the current impasse which threatens our world and the ability to explain it such that even the slowest of wits could grasp. We have mentioned our choice which is Lieutenant Colonel Allen West. Unfortunately for the Republican Party their elites hate this man so much that they agreed when reapportionment meant Florida lost one Congressional district to divide his district such that it would lose in both districts to Democrats so as to be rid of him and turned down the other plan which still cost them a seat to the Democrats but preferred to retain a solid lead in a seat where the current candidate was retiring but also did not include Allen West’s neighborhood making him ineligible. He ran in the contest in which he resided and necessarily lost just as the elites desired. Morality is a thing not only not revered but accursed to politics. Should a man have honor he will not be controllable and will do as he sees as honorable and correct while the rest will follow directions. Allen west will not follow direction as his life story has proven and his early retirement from the military, though disgraceful for the military, bears out. They claim he broke their rules but he claimed guilt as he did what he did to protect the lives of the men under his charge. Following the ROE (rules of engagement) and ROI (rules of interrogations), he put the lives of his men before his career which was pitch perfect and proper to that one fateful day when he made the career ending choice (read about it here). We are open to others and may one be found acceptable to the Republicans should they reach a brokered convention, something none of the political class desire as it leads to unpredictable results.

 

 

Men of Great Stature Reagan, Eisenhower, Allen West

 

 

Meanwhile, the Republican Party is adrift with not only no one who knows the path to relevance nor anyone who will unite the many strands of its base but only with candidates who will, out of their actions past and present, alienate one third of their base of support. We have covered this numerous times but why not; once more into the breach we go. Contrary to that which Republican Party elite tell us time and time again, we cannot win unless we get the vote of the enormous middle. The Democrats talk this line up but deny it by the candidates they present which do not chase the middle vote and only ply their wares to grasp their base, as fractured as it may be. As long as a Democrat candidate is accepted by three or so of the many disparate groups, the rest will fall in line as such is what is required so when their candidates run they too are supported. This means that any Democrat needs to hold true to a fair number of beliefs to reap a wide consensus of their base and cruise on to victory. Republicans need one who can light the imagination and gracefully support the mainstays of the Party and be sufficiently conservative that they satisfy the purists that the entirety of the base comes out and supports them. Thus was the now immortalized Ronald Reagan, though he began his life as a Democrat and Unionist, and before him the man responsible for winning the War in Europe, General Dwight David Eisenhower. Both were men of courage and ideas and there are but a few born to every decade and it is up to the public to find such men and follow their lead. For the record, the “Reagan” Democrats were actually the extremes of the Conservative base which underpins the Republican Party. The extreme conservatives who voted that year along with the more socially moderates who voted that year were still largely not normative leftist Democrat Party supporters. They may have been had the Republican placed Pat Buchanan or other paleo-conservative on the ballot on the top spot as they would be unable to couch such a person as President. Such a choice would scare that end of the party and they would likely remain home. Still, there is not a single candidate left in the contest rigged by the party elites who could gather the entirety of the Republicans across their span and have them appear at the polls and without the base you lose, something the Democrats understand and the Republicans constantly claim is beyond their ability as they always for the most squishy of conservatives attempting to grab that middle and least left Democrats, two targets where the first does not exist and the other is too well trained to stray from their posts in supporting their party, period. Again the Republican elites have decided to field a candidate they are comfortable in having and ignoring the desires of most of the base in exchange for the chimera of the soft middle voters, a phantasm which exists only in the minds of the foolish and the delusional and through who elections have been lost for generations past and to come as they will never learn that which they refuse to believe actually exists. These New England conservatives, people who would be leftist outcasts in Oklahoma or Wyoming, cannot begin to fathom the depth of voters so conservative as to be beyond their understanding which is why they lose election after election for the Presidency which actually includes the flyover states, imagine that.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 6, 2016

Iowa Results and Insights

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The biggest lesson we learned was that the media placed far too much emphasis on the caucuses. What we learned was that in cases where there was no definitive winner, then the entire choice would come down to a coin toss, how perfectly random. In the six instances where these rules were applied it was apparent that team Hillary got to call the coin-toss and call them they did. Apparently Bernie Sanders was perfectly happy to allow her team to call it, “Heads we win and Tails you lose.” And in six caucuses that appears to have been the call as Hillary either won each or Bernie lost, either way, Hillary went forth and declared a great victory while Bernie, being Bernie, claimed he and his supporters gave it a good fight and promised to continue the “Revolution” on to New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and beyond. When one looks beyond the primary delegates to the “Super Delegates” which are more or less decided by the Democrat Central Committee, one sees the reality of the delegate race as Hillary has 357, Bernie has 14 and O’Malley has 2 all going towards garnering the 2382 delegates needed to win.

 

We learned that Hillary can place way too much emphasis on her phantasmal ability or luck by her precinct chairs abilities to call coin tosses. Her grand claims of victory soon turned to sand in her mouth and she probably sputtered and spurted still insisting she had a mandate. Perhaps she was looking at the super delegate count which is made up of party hacks and people of whom Hillary had their FBI files on another server which was not used for State department e-mails but whose contents would be just as interesting to the voting public but has zero chance of ever seeing the light of day as it would be burned as soon as it was taken in as evidence. There are far too many people the files held there could damage and who have the power to destroy evidence just as well as Bill and Hill have proven capable. We also learned that Bernie has excited and tapped into an interesting voter group, the young and first time voters. Some of these first time voters have been of sufficient age to vote before but have now found their candidate. This is a large part of the voters eight years ago which propelled Obama into the White House and are just as likely to spoil Hillary’s last chance saloon and give her a really bad case of déja vu hiccups as she watches another upstart, this time a seventy-four year old hippie socialist who never let go of the dream from his college days, or is it daze? Should Bernie Sanders pull this off he will have proven that Hillary is fated to never grasp the golden ring in politics and Bill will never hear the end of how it was supposed to be hers but that Obama beat her and then Bernie the crazed lunatic stole it and it just was not fair. I guess nobody ever had the nerve or the suicidal tendencies to tell Hillary that life quite often is not fair. We learned also that Bernie had a solid and faithful following and that his challenge to the chosen one is real and very possible no matter how many delegates Bill can line up on Hillary’s side as in this day and age of the voters, as a collective intelligence, choose the candidates and the final elevations of a President. We also have seen the inside of the “Feel the Bern” generations and they are coming on strong and this might make Bernie Sanders the more electable Democrat and the real candidate the Republicans should fear facing.

 

The Republicans gave us a different message. The evangelicals, the Christian Right, was supposed to decide the Iowa vote and put one of two candidates on the short list for failure; they did not come through that way but have written the last swan song for Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz needed to corral, he is from Texas you know, the Evangelicals but he somehow lost about half the herd which left him limping into first place by a small margin, though it was a landslide by Hillary standards. Ted Cruz did do well as many had predicted claiming that the majority of the polling numbers for ‘The Donald’ (Donald Trump from here on) were mostly fictitious and when the time came to actually support a candidate, these polling numbers would prove to be a phantasm and disappear. Well, they actually did but not as far as predicted and Donald Trump has proven he is for real and will become a viable and potential winner should he start to actually express serious steps and reasons for his bombastic statements and clarify them into a reasonable platform people can stand behind. Ted Cruz, as wonderful as his supporters claim, will very likely fall flat in New Hampshire and rebound in South Carolina and Florida though it will remain to be seen if that is sufficient for him to remain in the race. After the caucuses in Nevada and Colorado it will be definitively decided who is the acceptable alternative to the establishment choice which appears currently to have fallen from Jeb Bush to Chris Christie to John Kasich and now on the Marco Rubio. Other than Cruz, Trump and Rubio who finished in close proximity to one-another, the rest should start taking stock of how much is this worth pursuing and what actually are your actual chances of emerging from the background in a positive manner. The media will ignore you until you make a mistake, and then they will crucify you until you fall on your sword; trust me, I’ve been there. For a good number, probably larger than those willing to vote for him, Ben Carson leaving will be heart-wrenching. We want so much to just once have the nice guy who refused to go negative and was an exemplary person whose life reads like a storybook where underprivileged youth from the worst part of town rise to prominence and was not only a success but also a solid positive force and contribution to society become Mr. Smith Goes to Washington except with a much happier result as he rises above the political machinery and does great and wonderful things lifting the nation by his inspirations. That would have been Ben Carson but perhaps this is better as the media have not torn him to shreds which would have come next had he shown he might succeed. The media will praise you to the hills and as soon as you start to succeed, partially due to their building you up, they will tear into you until you let out a personal secret, say that one time you lost your temper, we all have at least one such moment, and then that will become your defining moment as if nothing else you ever accomplished really made up for the momentary weakness when you were eight years old.

 

 

Mr. Carson Goes to Washington

Mr. Carson Goes to Washington

 

 

So the result in Iowa placed Ted Cruz momentarily in the cat bird seat with Donald Trump close behind and Marco Rubio in tightly behind Donald Trump. There being merely 8,500 votes between the three out of close to 175,000 they finished in a photo finish which their margins only looked large compared to the difference, or lack thereof, between the top Democrat candidates who basically resulted in a dead heat. The reality hopefully will become obvious to the three that for the race to be determined honestly then one of the non-establishment candidates will need to bow out if the other will have even a chance of taking the nomination. Should all three remain in the race and the contest continue to have similar results then there will be the definite possibility that at the Republican Convention there will be no definitive winner and as long as the three remain holding their delegates to their vote then there will be an arranged result which is basically a fixed convention where a candidate is chosen in some back room with some establishment and insiders making a choice and then bringing their golden boy forward and sweeping the convention as the party machinery steamrolls any opposition and presto, Jeb Bush is brought forward as the great hope of the party and we end up with the potentially lowest turnout election percentage in American history as we end up with that dreaded Clinton-Bush family rerun of the 1992 election without the drama or concern as the people show their disgust by staying home. Should this scenario become reality, then there need be a slight Constitutional Amendment making every Federal elected office have an additional choice at the bottom such that the people can demand better choices than the party line who has scratched the most backs and it is decided to reward them by making it their turn for the House of Representatives and then later the Senate and finally, for the real party hardliners, the Presidency by voting for “None of the Above” and if “None of the Above” receives the greatest plurality then the parties must find new candidates and a reelection will take place six weeks later, so they better choose well and somebody the people would rally to or they could face embarrassment after embarrassment and perhaps allow a primary if it is a Senate or House of Representatives for unaligned people to attempt to gain ballot access and allow the highest independent vote getter to also be on the ballot as it is doubtful such a person could do any worse in the performance than some of those currently in office. We really need to get better quality candidates and until the parties are forced to consider that they have to win over the people or face challenges from what are usually referred to as Joe-six-pack meaning it as a pejorative label when actually that may be a person who would do a far better job of representing the people with their being from amongst them. Still, there are the gems amongst a sea of party functionaries and the quality, or lack thereof, of the candidates on the average ballot simply proves George Washington correct when he claimed, “However [political parties] may now and then answer popular ends, they are likely in the course of time and things, to become potent engines, by which cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men will be enabled to subvert the power of the people and to usurp for themselves the reins of government, destroying afterwards the very engines which have lifted them to unjust dominion.” Enough said.

 

We regret that nowhere in the conglomerate of offerings is there a single candidate with military service in their background. Some of the candidates I doubt could reduce their self-worth to a sufficient level to survive basic training nor would they know when to stand on principle and when to stand down as that is also something they test in basic training and for the select few who respond accordingly they offer them to attend OCS which is the one way that an enlisted man can become an officer, and maybe a gentleman. The world stage being what it is, we believe would be best served by somebody who has served and our first choice would be Lt. Col. Alan West.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 14, 2015

Do Not Sell Trump Campaign Out So Fast

 

The going money bets that when the primaries get going that the electorate will become more serious than they currently are with pollsters as their votes will be “for real” rather than for funzies. Sure Trump comes up with some of the most ridiculous ideas and his Muslims need not apply for entry into the United States as the door is locked is probably the leader of the pack of crazies that Trump has said and people think it just wonderful funzies. The problem is that the people have reached a frenzied point where there is a sizeable and potential plurality who have had it with any actual politician and Trump is most definitely, if nothing else, the anti-politician candidate going away. Trump is a winner even if only in his own mind and the world it has created where “You’re Fired!” was given great recognition and the people loved it and many are probably hoping that if Trump were to be elected there would be a great number of people told, “You’re Fired!” and possibly even entire Cabinet Departments because the people believe Trump would be just the lunatic to not only try but actually succeed in doing just that, and that excites them.

 

The idea of closing the borders, all the borders and to everybody if that is what is necessary to protect the nation, well, at least for a period until the world settles down from its current frenetic and fiery frenzy, just might be the right medicine for the right time. The other side of the coin is they know, as does The Donald, that a President Trump will have limitations the systems impose which will temper his activities, but they also hope he will break what rules are necessary to correct the misadventures of the last who even knows how long America has been adrift from her moorings. The one thing that polling has shown is that the bigger the mouthing-off The Donald does and the more ludicrous and impossible his suggestions, as long as they appear to be directed at the correct and identifiable problems as perceived by the electorate and the public in general, the higher Trump’s polling numbers appear to go so one can definitely say the people’s anger is quite palpable and the entire field of politicians in both parties will definitely feel this in the primaries and maybe even carrying into the elections. Further, this anti-politico anger bodes extremely badly for both Bush and Clinton as the two most identifiable politicians in the two parties. If the main goal of the party elites is to produce the lowest ever turnout in an election, offer the American public a Bush against Clinton Presidential race and watch the vast majority to simply give up on the system and be ready for anybody who promises to tear things down and start from scratch such as the constitution has written and the Bill of Rights and a broad reading of that and go from there. There is an awful lot of anger out there to tap into and the party that can excite that at the local level will be given a mandate to fix what’s been broken by overregulation and stifling Federal and State laws onerous in their applications and stripping government down to the bare bones and starting from a ground level. This is why the anti-politician with experience delegating and managing can and will play heavy in the upcoming Presidential election and whichever party, or both parties ignoring it do so at their own peril.

 

 

The Donald Donald Trump That is

The Donald
Donald Trump That is

 

 

Donald Trump would make any campaign one of the most watched and should he gain the Republican nomination and then the general election, in both cases with sufficient numbers of the people, particularly in his Presidential election, that there could be no doubt that he would still be required to work with the Congress, especially on budget matters. Further, despite what President Obama has claimed that he will go rogue and act where he believes the nation should go, whether the Congress acts as fast as President Obama desires or not, that is all well and good; but the Congress, in particular the House of Representatives, will be required to act if one is going to have their agenda financed. There is scant little the President can accomplish if he has an adversarial Congress, and Trump is pretty much guaranteed to have an adversarial Congress. Furthermore, where is The Donald thinking he will find people to manage the different cabinet posts? Is he really so delusional that he believes he can ask the people he rubs elbows with and are eminently qualified to hold a cabinet position just because he asks them? These people make more money in a month than a cabinet post pays in a year and they make their money managing their money. These people are not about to let some “so-called” independent manager to invest and control their investments as they would be likely to lose as much per month compared to their making the choices than they would make in four years at a cabinet position. As for doing it for G0d and Country, if that would work then every President would have such people in their cabinets. The Donald will be just as hampered as any President in finding cabinet secretaries as looking to career political appointees and academics, all people who are receiving above their abilities in most cases than the cabinet post calls for. Even most upper middle management in the business world would be taking a cut in pay just to put on their resume they were in The Donald’s cabinet, and that would be the main draw to get competent people. The one cabinet position where there are a pool of well qualified candidates is Secretary of Defense, but that is because currently there is a number of top grade retired Generals and other senior officers due to the management of the defense of the United States by a Commander in Chief, we like to refer to him as the Ditherer in Chief, whose battle cry is, “To the rear charge and follow the backsides of the Europeans.”

 

No, a Donald Trump Presidency is nowhere near as disastrous as is being played up in the media. The media is worried they will not have the ‘as usual’ relationship with the White House as they now share, no matter which party holds the office of President. They know that instead of their framing the debate, there will be real thinking and bold, almost reckless, person in the White House and they will be left simply quoting him and making guesses what will come next. They know any attempt by their media elites to frame the discussion will be met by a “You’re Fired!” broadside as the Donald steers the Ship of State through dangerous mine-filled and rocky outcropped lined channels steering as if he was Captain Jack Sparrow without a care in the universe and using stars as wishing wells more than steerage points and still, like Captain Jack, coming through unscathed and much the better for the adventure. They are scared that he might actually succeed, which means that anybody really could be President and the nation survive, well, almost anybody as long as they meet two overriding qualifications, they consider themselves as President of the United States and not the bloody United Nations and second they love the nation and people of America.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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