Beyond the Cusp

May 14, 2015

When Polls Lie and Deceive What to Believe

 

In the last three major elections in the democrat and republican electing world the polls were as misleading as one could imagine. Not only did they get it wrong, it appeared that their polling was just as corrupted as their reporting. In this last election in the United States the polls predicted minor gains for the Republicans in Congress but with the Democrats probably retaining a slight majority in the United States Senate. The Republicans gained sufficient seats to rise to a dominating position in the Senate and further improved their position in the House of Representatives and as if that was not sufficient, the Republican Party also swept a number of State and local elections placing the party in a position of dominance unseen in decades. The liberal states of Massachusetts and Maryland elected Republican Governors despite their being the bluest of blue states.

 

In Israeli elections the polling and every indicator predicted that the Zionist Union, the marriage of the Labor Party with Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua Party, was going to sweep Prime Minister Netanyahu out of office. Further, it was predicted that with the aid of election specialists who had assisted in charting the course of the reelection of President Obama running a political operation called V2015 run by Obama election strategist Jeremy Bird and using the cryptic slogan of “Anyone but Bibi” was going to put in place an undefeatable election day tsunami sweeping the Zionist Union into power. Somehow Bibi Netanyahu won taking a commanding thirty seats beating the odds where the polling predicted the Zionist Union beating Netanyahu and the Likud twenty-six seats to a mere twenty-three seats. How could it have been polled so wrong such that the real results were Likud with Thirty and Zionist Union garnering twenty-four coming in a weak second. Again the polling was so wrong one could have thought they were blindsided by the actual results.

 

Finally there were the recent British elections where Ed Miliband and his Labour Party were supposed to sweep the Tories and David Cameron from office was also dead wrong with the conservative Tories and Cameron embarrassing the Labour Party so completely that Miliband resigned without bothering to wait for the broom to sweep him aside and replace him atop the Labour Party. This was simply the cherry atop the three layer cake with each layer sweeter than the previous as election results made lies out of the predictions by the pollsters. That begs the question as to how could they have gotten all three so completely wrong and should we believe anything we read about in polling.

 

There could be any number of reasons for the inaccuracy of polling from improper reading of the results leading to massaging the results in order to match the pollsters political preferences or that the media intentionally went with slanted polling data knowingly but fully believing that they had sufficient sway to bring about the results they desired simply by reporting the results they desired and willing them into existence. It is entirely possible that the methods utilized by the polling companies favored the liberal leftists over the right wing conservatives. One method of polling which had found produces such results is to utilize polling conducted by using land-line phone numbers during mainly daytime hours when the majority of the people who have jobs are working at those jobs and therefore are not home to take any polling calls, which is also why they use land-lines and not mobile, though even mobile polling would likely produce similar results just less skewed to the left. Then again, if people are anything like the folks I know then they only use their cell phones and only have a land-line because it came with the package they get their internet access or television cable and never give out that number thus never answer the land-lined knowing that the call is either a poll or telemarketer and either way undesired. But maybe the polling methodology was not to blame but the people themselves are the problem.

 

What if the people have been so beaten down by the seemingly endless efforts to force political correctness along with leftist propaganda down our throats using news reporting which is more electioneering or campaigning or simply editorial opinions wrapped up to appear like news coverage that the people react repeating the touch-words or positions constantly pushed upon them by a media which has completely turned to the left beyond any reason. People may have reached the point that they find it easier and less complicating for their lives to simply regurgitate the leftist mantras to avoid offending the sensibilities of anyone leftward-leaning within earshot who would immediately slowly turn in their direction and then questions by question slowly turn further until they are glaring directly at the malcontent who spoke words which are taken as offense and must be challenged until all descending conservative expression has been wiped from the public sphere. Where this may have silenced those conservatives who simply take the path of least resistance which in public discourse means not upsetting the leftist sloganeering policer of their immediate space, they cannot yet accompany everyone into the voting booth where everyone is free at last to vote their true mind and not be made to suffer the umbrage and wrath of the leftists in our midst. Perhaps that has so swept and crept its way into our lives that anytime other than within the safe confines of the voting booth we will simply become leftists for the duration while secretly voting our inner Churchill, Thatcher, Reagan, Jefferson, John Adams or Menachem Begin when the chips are to be cast, gathered and counted in order that our captains for the ship of state are selected.

 

Think about debates at work with associates or discussions with fellow congregants at our places of worship or wherever we toil, gather or socialize and my bet is there is at least one person in each of those settings whose stand is for Big Brother and makes sure any wrong-think is made sufficiently uncomfortable that fairly soon all but the lost causes simply speak the words our monitors desire to hear and keep our real thoughts happily dancing within our minds unmolested by the minders. There are also those few outliers who are true believers and speak their minds no matter who may add their names to a list of those to be watched, as many have made so many of such lists that one more will make little difference. These are the ones who can often give as good as they get. Only the few ever make friendship bonds with these people and if we should we often request they not reveal our true political kinship as we are amongst the quiet quiescence slumbering through life passing by semiconscious of the views expressed around us as there is nothing worth our fighting for as we still have the blessing of honest representation of our votes. Should we lose such honest accounting of the ballots then will we allow ourselves to be availed of out of our quiet accommodations and comforting silence and then hear us roar for when it comes to our votes we will not sleepwalk through such offense. There is much we can allow to pass as fact when we know it to be different, but the honest representation of our vote we draw the line and demand honest representation.

 

It is little wonder that those in the media can walk around claiming in all honestly that every person with whom they speak of such things all supported President Obama and thus it was an absolute impossibility that the President was reelected by so close a margin. These people are not delusional because they mean it when they claim that election results were completely skewed, opposed to the polling, and they are truly flabbergasted and personally destroyed that the Congress or Knesset or Parliament which was elected could have gone so wrong, as in their worlds their viewpoints are correct, good and the only honest result possible and the other side can only possibly win by deceit or trickery. We are all living more and more in small echo chambers where we hear little from the other side of political and social issues. Our bubbles are carefully chosen and seldom do we hear a disparaging word and our skies are not cloudy all day. Often we even go so far as to carefully choose from whence we receive our news so as to hear only those reports which inform us of how impossible it was that we lost an election or that the results were so much closer than they should have been. The most often heard reason for any loss in an election was simply that our side did not get the vote out and turnout favored the other side. There was a perfect such comment made after the recent midterm elections in the United States when President Obama actually had the nerve to claim, “To everyone who voted, I want you to know that I hear you. To the two-thirds of voters who chose not to participate in the process yesterday, I hear you too.” I likely could spend the rest of my life and never find somebody in high office who is so out of touch with reality that they would make such a statement. For your amusement, here is the comment straight from Obama’s mouth.

 

 

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 23, 2015

Never Seen the Problem so Plainly Stated

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Often we hear about how people are surprised when an obviously conservative candidate wins an election where nobody has ever remembered reading a pro-conservative editorialist or especially a news columnist. Nobody knows of any conservatives where they work, at their country club or social club, nor are there any in their union, bowling league, classic car club etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. I found the problem which stands behind this situation described by Rabbi Professor Dov Fischer titled Conservative “Marranos” and the Absurd Charge of Racism. Below is the last part of the first paragraph which left me in shock and feeling a sharp pinch of sadness and emptiness as one might hope that such a respected Rabbi could hold conservative positions, especially on many social issues where Torah and the laws of Judaism would give him the backing and freedom to at least express such views with impunity and free from the affects others of us have suffered when speaking our minds similarly.

Throughout the West, we conservatives must be careful when we speak, toe political lines that are drawn for us, hide our true political beliefs and voting preferences, and basically live the life of political Marranos or Conversos. We must join unions that we do not wish to join, must advocate programs and leisure activities that we do not wish to advocate, and we must hide furtively until, once every two or four years, we can vote in secrecy.

 

Once my initial shock and sadness passed, I was left with a sense of anger as, oddly enough, I have always had the exact opposite reaction when presented with false boundaries and leftist expectations that, under peer pressures, all will wilt and obey the societal bounds and act as those self-labelled all-compassionate expect and enforce, lest one transgresses at risk of ostracization. I decided to read the remainder of Rabbi Fischer’s article where he described the reactions in the United States and especially in the great White House and around the world where Israel has become the great apartheid state replacing South Africa who having defeated the real apartheid now leads the anointing of Israel as the new enforcer of apartheid politics, after all did not the Bibi again win against the great reformers who accept the European credo and would blindly obey and follow their betters down the path to oblivion. The meat of the article went to explain how politics is a different animal in Israel than it is in the United States, Europe and other citadels of freedom of the Western world. There is the explanation that in Israel we allow a political party whose defined aim in their declarations of principles is to dissolve the Jewishness of Israel and expel or subjugate the Jews and put in place the very Palestinian Arab state which is at its very core not far distant from the same madness that engulfed the continent of Europe and almost the world in the last great conflagration. When at the end of a brilliant description explaining that the phrase Bibi utilized to rally any last vestiges of support from the Zionist, nationalist and right wing voting blocks to get out and vote as a measured grass roots effort financed and manned by leaders from outside of Israel were attempting to hijack the elections and seize power and influence in order to command Israeli obedience to their desires which would in short time mean the end of Israel as the one and only Jewish state, the last refuge the Jewish people have for a safe place, a refuge and blessed haven to which they will be able to escape as the world once again turns mad with red shot eyes and an inner rage for Jewish blood and from there who knows the next victim of the coming madness, perhaps religious Christians who remain dedicated to ancient and outdated parchments and even still believe that the Constitution and the Bible were written in stone and not living, breathing documents whose interpretations depend on the end desire to redefine all norms to fit their unholy societal demands. The article explains that there is a force in the darkness which does desire to squelch all opposition and extinguish the flames of freedom and compassion in the world and install in the place of liberating doctrines a religiously enforced straightjacket which will break the will and end the dreams of the millions who lead the assaults on the battlements of Israeli society as that is the identified instigator that has unsettled an old, dormant, expellent force which seeks dominance over all societal norms and the final implementation of their holy order, though which form is still being debated, by force of arms. The point was made that none of these paragons of all that is fare and knowledgeable were to expound their doctrines in any of the societies such as Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran or many others of similar ilk that they would soon be meted out their just rewards for thinking beyond their canonical precepts meant to place all societies under its order. Then he relates how after expressing our honest desires we will again have returned to our basements and reassumed our placid facades we use in our daily excursions in the public eye.

 

It has always been my experience that it is best to exhibit those exact traits which best and most deeply depict standing on what is defined as the right wing, conservative or sometimes even Neanderthal behavior and risk the immediate recoil as if close proximity might cause them to be infected as if your political and societal beliefs are akin to a disease which one must quarantine for the health of their society. Does such an initial reaction make existence somewhat difficult initially, of course it does and must be expected. Once you have exhibited that you are quite comfortable existing within their space though an orbital radius is placed around you into which none initially and eventually only the brave dare be seen entering, let alone such trivialities as conversing or even sharing a joke or relating an anecdotal experience from the weekend as such interactions risk contamination. This cannot last indefinitely and slowly but inexorably your societal peers will find that you are not a monster and will not cause them contamination or other afflictions but that you actually share many of the beliefs they themselves accept as we are all raised in the same society which has rules which are universal, it is just that such rules are mostly about conduct and politeness which makes society possible. With extended exposure your fellow travelers will inevitably realize that what you consider right and just is very similar to those things they once believed but have since slid down that slippery slope which you have often warned about and upon realizing this some may even attempt to climb back from their proximity further down the slippery slope which actually will eventually be the death of their society as at the bottom of that slope nothing is worth defending and complete surrender to the great call of empty nothingness where every act no matter how perverse, iniquitous or reprehensible can be condemned lest you be condemned for the bottom of the slope is a society with no standards and nothing is enforced as being beyond acceptance. No society so defined can continue to exist as it becomes a society completely enthralled with self-indulgence to such an extent that even the idea of sacrifice of the self to raise the next generation becomes too burdensome that the idea that it takes a society to raise a child finally becomes simply the society must raise the child and children are given over to specially trained teams who know the best manner for raising the child and every child is molded or forced to obey the rules of inclusiveness and to abhor those who claim that some actions are beyond acceptable behavior as the self-indulgent new define morals and conduct such that nothing is too much or against acceptance except maybe having expectations that all have self-respect and a code of conduct which does limit behavior and set standards, real standards and not an anything goes unbounded limitless standards-free society. Those who are right wing are simply the morals which are necessary to restrain society from swinging so far from center that any hope of a return to those basic beliefs which once produced a society which was productive and functional believing in itself and the ideals which were worth extending to the next generation and knowing that it was the greatest of all accomplishments to raise children instilled with values which guided them to exceed the accomplishments you attained and built a better and more compassionate society which had structure worthy and even beyond what you might have hoped for. There is nothing more honorable than raising a child who exceeds your accomplishments and is making a better parent than you were when raising your child as they took those things that were right and true and took a different path avoiding many of the errors you committed and you realize they are in fact committed to doing what you had strove to do, be a better parent than your own parents and by producing a greater grandchild that they too can be proud and feel they too contributed to that wondrous hope for the future. Does such a society go off the rails, of course that is a possibility which is why as parents we never stop teaching and hopefully we never stop learning for learning is the first step to teaching.

 

The truth of being a right wing, religious and attempting to lead a righteous life is something which it is never too late to start. Many of us who are on the right were leaders of the charge down that slippery slope but had an epiphany and realized that the bottom of that slope was a waiting disaster and where we should be headed is back to the top of the hill. Of course we who have taken this path realize that the top of that hill awaits the fact that it is but a foothill and beyond is another slightly higher foothill and in the distance is a mountain that so very few of us ever even reach the bottom of its craggy and high cliffs which are seemingly impossible to scale. I am hopeful but unfortunately uncertain that there are those still alive today who are somewhere upon those stratospheric heights holding fast to those principles which all too many of us have little knowledge or understanding of such thoughts. The truth we do know is that to have such thoughts must be wondrous and fulfilling. It is that knowledge which guides those who hold conservative standards and believe in that higher truth which we have realized is atop the hill and not at the bottom of that grassy, wet, slippery slope no matter what the promises of ecstasy and unlimited freedom for even freedom must be limited by boundaries, even if the only boundary one recognizes is that their freedom stops at the next person’s nose. One can punch the air, punch the heavy bag, punch the light bag, but one may not punch the person next to them as that infringes on their freedom. Thomas Jefferson once stated about a neighbor’s religious beliefs but can be more generally applied very simple truism, “If it doesn’t break my arm or pick my pocket I don’t care which religion a person pursues.” If only everyone today could apply that to political beliefs instead of initially treating any conservative as a leper, a societal pariah, as for the most part it is all we would ask or expect as decent behavior of a group of people who pride themselves with their so-called acceptance of others with different beliefs for is that not exactly what a conservative is, a person who believes differently, or is it that we arise in you a twinge of conscience, a pang of guilt of something dear that is now misplaced or a hunger to be able to return to your lost values; whatever it may be, listen to that call and find a direction which leads more efficiently to that fulfilling satisfaction that you have a craving but have become lost in the direction to best for which to find it.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 11, 2015

Israel Needs to Remember Why Elections Called

 

Before proceeding I should make a few facts known. First is I will not be voting for Likud for any number of reasons. Second is I would rather somebody with even stronger Zionist leanings lead the government as I am against ceding any further lands to the Arabs by any name as it will only further empower their demands for the rest of Israel, especially if President Obama, John Kerry and a bushel of Europeans and other anti-Zionist, anti-Semites are pushing to force Israel into surrendering. I would prefer to see a semiautonomous region be put in place allowing the Arabs to rule themselves while under IDF security and remaining part of Israel and perhaps should reason ever enter into the equation they be included into Israeli society, but not until their aim is not to replace or destroy the Jewishness of the state. Such is within the legal International Laws under which the Jewish State was to formed according to the San Remo Conference which remains the idea in international parlances under which Israel was formed and not by anything resulting from the Holocaust as so many believe and act. Israel was founded and defined in International Law and presumably backed by the British who controlled the lands after the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in World War I to exist between the Jordan River and the Sea as a result of the influx of Zionists and their political efforts. Finally, according to the International Laws pertaining to the establishment of the State of Israel the Arabs were guaranteed freedom to pursue their religious observances, freedom to own property, freedom to run their businesses and general freedoms with one exception, they were not set out specifically by the decrees to have any political rights as their influx into what was set aside for the Jewish state was viewed for its initial reasons, economic opportunity, and it was noted that the Arabs predominantly were not established as a unique peoples but as economic immigrants while the Zionists were seeking the reestablishment of a homeland for the Jewish People on their ancestral lands. It was within a mere few years after these promises were made to the Jewish People that the Europeans had second thoughts, especially the British, and the world has been working ever since to undo this act of righteousness and reverse their acts of establishing a Jewish State largely to placate the Arab world which refused to recognize the Jewish rights to their homeland despite it being spelled out in their Quran.

 

Now let us get back to the Israeli elections. Before we make what will very likely make a fatal error and place either Yitzhak Hertzog or Tzipi Livni in the position of Prime Minister, let us remember exactly why the election had to be called. The election was not called simply because Bibi Netanyahu desired dictatorial powers to mold Israel to his image. It was called because of largely the actions of two of the leaders of the two parties founded on their leader’s political grand mission to support their righteous and rightful ascendance to be Prime Minister. Both of these faux-messianic figures believed that it was their right to run their assigned positions as their own fiefdoms which were to independently run as if they were equal to or superior to the position of Prime Minister and acted as if the demands and rules which others were required to operate under did not apply to them and they were free to act as an independent wing of the government under self-rule unrestrained by other realities. This is what eventually led to the removal of Tzipi Livni and Yair Lapid from the government and thus new elections. The proof that neither of these individuals’ actions as if they had assumed equality with the Prime Minister and were correct in their reading of the tealeaves is the fact that Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party will have its mandates cut almost to half of what they had been before his actions revealed his true nature and aspirations and Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua Party was facing not making it into the Knesset as it was unlikely to make the threshold and her only route into the government was to deceive Hertzog into believing the Labor Party needed her and in exchange for the mandates she believed she could bring she was to finally be rewarded with her destiny, being Prime Minister of Israel and forging a peace with the Arabs at any cost.

 

Yair Lapid had been running his position as Finance Minister to fit his political ambitions as well as to fit his political outlooks. He had been withholding any funding which was earmarked for purposes which ran contrary to his political leanings, leanings which were almost diametrically opposed to much of the stances he pronounced during the campaign. Lapid ran a campaign based on a Zionist and nationalist set of principles with strong ties to the religious Zionist movement just somewhat less observant but aligned with their views of retaining much of Judea and Samaria. This did not prove to be the truth. Yair Lapid’s actual political view was himself as Prime Minister and that he, as such, would not be required to act within any restraints as were the other members of the coalition. Despite most of the media and political elite refusing to reveal the truth about Yair Lapid and his attempts to form a new coalition around his party’s mandate and a combination of parties who would join his coup and present a new government to the President as a means of his assuming the position of Prime Minister unseating Netanyahu amidst his having won the elections as people such as Yair Lapid must not be constrained and limited by the rules which apply to mere mortals, Lapid was above such restrictions and could play fast and loose with the rules which forced others to accept reality. This was also behind his reallocating funds or withholding funds as noted above in the hopes of releasing these monies to be directed to reward those who joined his newly formed government which he was found out and fired from his position for his treacherous actions.

 

Ms. Livni, on the other hand, had lost all sense of reality and instead had decided that she alone could finally reach that formerly unreachable peace if only that Benyamin Netanyahu would agree to give everything over to her to negotiate away through Secretary Kerry and Mahmoud Abbas. Tzipi Livni, it must be remembered met with and attempted to carry out negotiations with Mahmoud Abbas and John Kerry in a conference in London despite being instructed directly by Prime Minister Netanyahu to avoid any interactions with Abbas, but such restrictions obviously did not apply to her or to the negotiations she felt still were tenable. Another reason that the negotiations with Abbas were called off was due to Livni going beyond what limits were set on her by Prime Minister Netanyahu and she continued in making offers which exceeded the limitations placed on her power by the government as she too figured that she was destined to take control of the government’s actions and ruled unconstrained by realities. Tzipi Livni is another one who believes she has a destiny to complete as Prime Minister and then forge a lasting peace with Mahmoud Abbas no matter how much land is required to complete the deal. The situation became completely untenable that as Prime Minister Netanyahu began to try and restrain her from offering far more than the government would guarantee and attempt to prevent a disaster if any of her offers were to be accepted as she had taken the negotiation into untenable waters.

 

Both Lapid and Livni hold messianic complexes and believe they have been placed on the planet to accommodate historic and messianic fetes. They believe in their own hype and regard restriction as merely those guidelines which apply to lesser beings such as you and me. Lapid is going to likely have his wings clipped by the electorate, the force which quite often saves us from ourselves. The catch is that as Israelis we need to remember why these elections were called. Prime Minister Netanyahu did not seek new elections lightly but rather because the people were not being served honorably by two rogue members of the coalition and as such they could not be trusted to continue to act in the name of the people. Now the Israelis are about to make the same fateful mistake they made in the last elections except this time there will be nobody in the Prime Minister’s chair to rescue them as should the “Zionist Camp”, the misnomer being utilized as a cheap and tawdry play on words to mislead the average voter into believing the union of Labor with Livni has anything to do with Zionism as both are Post-Zionist in their outlooks, as such would place weaker candidates at the head of the government. Both Livni, when allowed to speak, and Hertzog are strong believers in the two state solution and are ready and anxious to do whatever is required to attain a two state solution. They have both chastised Netanyahu for not blindly following President Obama wherever he might lead to and have both pledged to follow President Obama to any extremes and doing whatever it takes to establish peace. They have both sworn to sacrifice all of Judea and Samaria and East Jerusalem if that is what President Obama feels is necessary to finally achieve peace. Yair Lapid will likely retain some of the true believers who will follow him simply as a vehicle in which to be in the halls of power. Lapid believes that government can simply cure all the ills that plague a society by the judicial application of money and that he should decide where such money is spent thus empowering him to solve all the ills he perceives of needing saving. Both Livni and Lapid share messianic complexes just for different reasons. Still, we should not use this or any election to reward those who broke the rules as soon as they placed upon them any restrictions. Lapid is dangerous as he knows what he is doing and is willing to sacrifice the religious community in order to get what he desires. Livni is a true believer in the two state solution and will sacrifice everything in attaining this two state solution. She has lost sight of the original stipulations in which Israel was presumed to retain all of Area C and East Jerusalem and the remainder was to be negotiated as to where a border would be placed. Instead of demanding Israeli claims be honored she has taken the belief that any retention of lands by Israel is against International Law and thus Israel has no rightful claims. The reality is that the Arabs have no rightful claims to any lands west of the Jordan River, a fact even Jordan was aware of when they made their peace with Israel and surrendered any claims to lands west of the Jordan River, but let us not confuse Ms. Livni with facts.

 

To be honest, if Israel is to avoid yet another general war against combined Arab forces, then she is going to have to avoid anything which gives them a beachhead from which to make their preparations. To assure such we would need to select somebody to be Prime Minister who has strong Zionist beliefs backed up by both the International Laws and by religious convictions. There are some who make up such a combination of beliefs but none are viably in the position to be chosen to form a government, perhaps in time as Israel continues returning to her roots and regains religious convictions. Such a transition will take time but the signs are there and such a transformation may be in the near future and such would truly be a wondrous miracle. Until then we who foresee such a day coming for Israel must not lose our grasp on the electorate and need to vote so as to force governments to take note of the need not to sacrifice all in the name of acceptance on the world stage. The only hope we have is to keep the Lapids and Livnis from power and to assure that the government be made up of Zionist and nationalist representatives who value Torah and the promises as well as the admonishments contained within pertaining to the settling of the lands and the promises Hashem has given us as long as we stay on his truthful path and pursue truth and the establishment of Eretz Yisroel and dutifully thank Him for our bounty, nothing more and nothing less.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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