Beyond the Cusp

June 21, 2011

They Say Mitt Romney is Leading the Republicans

I have been reading and hearing ad-nauseum that Mitt Romney is the leading Republican candidate who is apparently so far ahead of the rest of the field that there may be no need for the primaries. Let’s just give him the nomination right now and save ourselves the messy democracy stuff. Well, maybe not so fast. If I recall correctly, four years ago we had Republicans that were polling as the unapproachable leaders in the pack. I remember those names went through a number of changes as the primaries moved along. And finally, I think it was somebody given up by the press whose campaign managers had left the campaign for dead who miraculously came out on top. Unfortunately, that was all the miracles John McCain was able to pull out of his bag and he lost the Presidential election rather convincingly. But this is a new election even if many of the potential candidates are retreads from last election or even the far distant past of the 1990s all saying that they are the one with the answers and the plan.

This early on, do we even have the faintest idea of who all of the players are going to be? Nope, there are likely to be more entries and some fade outs or even a burn out or two between now and New Hampshire and Iowa. Remember that for many the game doesn’t really start until sometime this fall, and most won’t pay any really serious attention, assuming they will even care about the primary season at all, until about a week or so before their State’s primary elections. What they are reporting to us right now are not real, or even pretend, poll numbers. Any poll taken now is simply a name recognition poll. They might as well go out and ask people to check off each name they recognize and I would bet those results would mirror most of the “real polling numbers” that are reported with deep breaths and anxious seriousness. Honestly, unless you are an even more serious political junky than am I, then you probably couldn’t even name everybody who is running for the Republican nomination, I know I cannot. For all the press that ex-Alaska Governor Sarah Palin has garnered, it might appear that she would be the front runner, not Mitt Romney, yet Mrs. Palin isn’t running, at least not at this time. Currently, good money is on Mrs. Palin not taking the plunge into the swamp of the political theater. Then there are people such as Herman Cain, John Thune and Tim Pawlenty who are about who many have yet to hear more than their names. And then there is Charles Elson “Buddy” Roemer III who was listed on the abcnews.go.com Politics 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates Guidebook I found on-line. I would have to list him as a remote chance and might ask who he is except he is listed as Former Governor of Louisiana. Not quite as recognizable a name as, say, the current Governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal, also listed as a possible. The problem with guessing who might run and who won’t is similar to the problem predicting the Democrat candidates in the 1992 Presidential Primaries. When there is a sitting President who is running for reelection, many will not attempt to unseat his chances as it usually poses a more difficult challenge. Back in the 1992 primaries, Bill Clinton not only won the primary, but also unseated incumbent President George H W Bush in the elections. President Clinton was about as remote a pick before the start of the primary as you could find but chose to try as the field was not very strong as most presumed viable Democrat potentials decided not to challenge a President Bush who was at the pinnacle of his popularity at the start of the election cycle. Some say that does not apply to this election as President Obama is not as popular at this time. My answer, he is still the President which makes beating him an uphill battle that is why we hold elections and play the games.

So, we have, reputedly, Mitt Romney as the man to beat to even get to run against the real man to beat, President Barack Obama. The press repeats this claim at least four to thousands of times a week, depending if you are rating one anchor or all the news forms. Even if you just landed here from half way across the Milky Way, within fifteen minutes of understanding our language you would know that Mitt Romney is the leading Republican candidate. This, in some ways, begs a question, why is the press pushing Mitt Romney so hard? Since most of the people I have spoken with do not particularly prefer Mitt Romney, and a number of them would not vote for him if he were to become the Republican candidate. I am sure a few of those people mean what they claim and most would vote for Romney should push comes to shove. That does not mean they would actively support Romney, merely pull the lever on that fateful day in November. With such negatives and the doubts of Mitt Romney’s conservative pedigree, might not the press be pushing him along with their other favorite claim that the Republicans can only win if they run some form of Democrat lite candidate? I think this might be some of the explanation for the pushing of Mitt Romney so hard by the mainstream press. If so, the only thing left to see is if it works, and if it works, will it kill the Republican hopes of defeating President Obama, the real objective behind much of the press in America.

Beyond the Cusp

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