Beyond the Cusp

October 19, 2014

Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei Tweets Nuclear Red Lines

Perhaps Tweeting is the new diplomatic courier for national figures and even the leaders of nations for making their desires, positions and calls for actions known to the world. Maybe the press conference is passé and nobody let me know. I wonder sometimes why I’m almost always the last to know these things. Perhaps it’s because I don’t have a Facebook presence. Anyway, the Ayatollah Khamenei issued his eleven demands in a tweet which was then made into a nice diagram by Mark Langfan which included his eleven red lines for the upcoming talks with the P5+1 (United States, Britain, Russia, France, China plus Germany) which are depicted in the cutest little diagram shown below.

 

Iranian Red Lines for Nuclear Talks

Iranian Red Lines for Nuclear Talks as stated by Ayatollah Khamenei

 

These are the actual demands in an easier to read listing:
1) Nuclear science movement should not come to a halt or even slow down.
2) Iranian Delegation should insist on continuing nuclear research and development.
3) No one has the right to bargain over nuclear achievements and no one will do so.
4) Our delegation should not accept any impositions from the other side.
5) International Atomic Energy Agency should establish normal and non-extraordinary relations with Iran.
6) Officials should have meetings and talks at the level of foreign ministers.
7) Protecting an organization like Fordow which the enemy is not able to destroy and is inaccessible to them.
8) Supplying the final need of the country’s enrichment capacity which is 190 thousand SWUs.
9) Basic needs of the country and some issues like the sanctions should not be tied to the nuclear talks.
10) These talks are only centered on the nuclear issue and not anything else.
11) As long as Americans continue their enmity and their hostile remarks about Iran, interactions with them will bears no practicality.

Information for this article taken from Mark Langfan’s article titled Iran’s Red Line: Centrifuges for 38 A-Bombs Per Year.

 

The demands set forth by Iran’s Supreme Leaders leave little if any doubt what their intentions are, to make as many nuclear warheads as they possibly are capable and to continue their research into making bigger and more powerful nuclear devices with a definite intention of gaining the knowhow to manufacture thermonuclear devices and warehousing sufficient nuclear warheads of varying sizes, multiple warheads, and yields such that they will be prepared at some point in the near future, within the decade, to make a swarm attack with nuclear devices against the United States, the European capitals and largest twenty-five cities and Israel with the intents of laying waste and completely destroying the American and Israeli society and populations and leaving Europe destroyed and rendered back to the Dark Ages. After the Iranians have obliterated the Western world their next move will be to demand that the entirety of Islam surrender and accept Shia Islam as their religion and the Iranian Mullahs and their Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah, as the leadership of all Islam. They will demand the right to rule over the Holy cities of Mecca and Medina and will order that all the holy cities of Shia Islam be placed as the highest holy sites with any Sunni holy sites being rendered to lesser levels of holiness by comparison. The Iranian Mullahs have made no bones about their intention to become the leadership of a pure Islamic Caliphate consisting of a Shia body without any other sect or forms of Islam which might challenge their supremacy. There is nothing terrible about the desires by the Iranians to become the rulers and leaders of what they believe the only true form of Islam, and basically they have achieved this already as they basically are the de facto rulers in Iraq and control Syria and Lebanon outright before the civil war began in Syria and then spilled into Iraq and threatens Lebanon all indirectly resulting from the impetus which resulted from the Arab Spring turned Arab Winter and now becoming rapidly Arab Apocalypse, all of which could be indirectly traced as being tangential to President Obama’s Cairo speech and the policies which led to the United States withdrawal from much of their military locations within Middle East and North Africa nations and supporting the Arab uprisings while not nurturing or even policing the aftermaths.

What is a fear for the future concerning Iran is their desire to force all of Islam to follow their version of Islam or face the sword, as it is stated in the Quran, and then force the rest of the world to also be followers of Islam and by the manner by which they define it or face the sword. What makes their desire for world control is their willingness to go to extremes of destruction against any and every nations, peoples and followers of different faiths that the Iranian leadership has actually stated they are willing to utilize any and all facilities, weapons and other resources and methodologies in their conquest and reordering of the world. What is not surprising is that the majority of the world has either ignored or simply not bothered to listen or care enough to show concern over the Iranian threats. Even those who have noted and stated recognition of the Iranian aims have, for the most part, dismissed these threats as inconsequential or not realizable and thus there is no actual need to address or dedicate any resources or efforts to mitigate the threat. This is most evident in the P5+1 negotiations with Iran which actually could be better defined as negotiations between Iran supported for the most part by Russia and China negotiating with Britain and France who wish to slow if not prevent the Iranian nuclear program. Meanwhile, the United States holds the deciding weight but displays little desire to actually prevent Iran from their development of nuclear weapons in their nuclear program and even appear to be turning a blind eye and only wishing to end these discomforting negotiations which are causing high expectations from many outside concerned nations, Israel being the most vocal and even having carried their concerns long and loud even at the United Nations recently. United States leadership from President Obama to Secretary of State Kerry seem to only wish to be done with the entire responsibility for preventing Iran from producing nuclear weapons to the point of a willingness to simply surrender if making any stand proves to possibly force the negotiations to fail by the deadline of November 24, 2014.

The negotiations are soon to be resumed which likely will be painstakingly tendentious as the United States continues to offer little resistance or make any meaningful input. The world may be once again hanging by the thread relying hopefully that Britain or France take the position of protector of the future and sanity of the world. This is not as far out of bounds as it may first appear as during an earlier session almost a full year ago early in November 2013, Britain was apprehensive and France simply was unaccepting leading to their veto of the agreement put forth by both the Iranians and United States. Both other Western nations suspected the deal was simply ceding too many points and demands to the Iranians. When this occurred was when I realized beyond reasonable doubt that President Obama was not only willing to relent on any and all principles simply to curry favor and appear to be actually finally earning that Nobel Peace Prize. I already knew that President Obama was mostly all about image, winning favor and being accepted as a friend willing to go that extra step, as long as that step was not difficult or requiring any great efforts including standing on principles. We are very likely about to witness another grand surrender once again in November as both President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry see no problems with the Iranians gaining nuclear weapons, period. They have both stated on numerous occasions that they believe that Iran having nuclear weapons would be no different than when the Soviet Union and China gained nuclear weapons capability and the Iranians will be deterred from ever deploying their nuclear weapons by the threat of mutual destruction. They both probably also see an Iranian nuclear weapon arsenal as a balancing against the presumed Israeli nuclear arsenal. They further believe that because any use of a nuclear weapon by terrorists, the weapon could be traced back to the source country which provided the weapon and this would prevent Iran or any other nuclear power from ever arming terrorists with such a weapon. All this trust and faith between the United States administration personnel and the Iranian Mullahs and Ayatollahs is just so warm and fuzzy, what is not to like. Well, other than such things as potential terrorist gaining nuclear weapons and the certainty that Iran becoming a nuclear power will without a doubt result in an arms race throughout the MENA countries (Middle East and North Africa) which will result in Saudi Arabia initially joining the nuclear club followed relatively soon by Turkey and Egypt and then Syria and Lebanon, providing Syria and Lebanon are still functioning nations, and eventually to most of the rest providing this arms race does not trigger the final Biblical Armageddon. Let’s party like it’s the end of the world, it very well might be being setup right now as we watch powerless to press any stop button and without any chance to interject our fears and realize our grandest hopes.

Beyond the Cusp

August 7, 2013

Obama Likely Considering Tragic Error in Iran Policy

The writing is appearing on the wall as new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani introduces the idea that Iran is ready to negotiate and do so with a new openness stating, “As the president of the Islamic republic, I am announcing that there is the political will to solve this issue and also take into consideration the concerns of the other sides We are the people of interaction and talks, with seriousness and without wasting time, if the other sides are ready.” Quoted by the Agency France Press (AFP), President Rouhani also proclaimed, “”Iran’s peaceful nuclear program is a national issue… we will not give up the rights of the Iranian people. We will preserve our rights based on the international regulations. In Iran, nobody has said we will give up uranium enrichment, no one and at no time. He also took a swipe at the United States complaining that Washington was sending “contradictory messages” with the White House claiming they are a “willing partner” desiring genuine talks while the U.S. Senate urging tougher sanctions. He added talking to AFP, “Recent declarations from the White House show that some U.S. officials do not have a correct and realistic assessment of the situation here and the message that the Iranian people gave in the election. They are still sending contradictory messages. We care about the U.S. response in deeds, not in words.” The new Iranian President denounced the letter calling for stronger sanctions to be placed on Iran received by the White House recently from seventy-six Senators claiming, “The interests of a foreign country and the will of a certain group have been imposed on U.S. lawmakers, who do not serve the interests of the United States.”

 

Taking a supportive view of the Iranian statements offering a fresh and new approach to the negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program was the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who told AFP, “I think these ideas contradict the fundamental interests of the international community. These are dangerous games and we hope reason will prevail.” Furthermore, in complete agreement with Iran, Foreign Minister Lavrov strongly criticized as well the letter signed by the seventy-six United States Senators sent to the White House calling for tougher U.S. sanctions until the promise of more constructive engagement proved to be validated, saying that it was in the interests of the whole world to respond positively to Rouhani’s talks offer. AFP further quoted the Russian Foreign Minister protesting, “These are dangerous games and we hope reason will prevail.” Lavrov claimed it to be “extremely important” that the group of Five Permanent Members of the UN Security Council Plus Germany, aka P5+1, to take the new approach emanating from the newly elected Iranian leadership and hold a fresh, new and open negotiations as soon as possible.

 

That is a rather broad front supporting resetting the entire negotiations over the Iranian to square one ignoring all of the previous obstructions, prevarications, equivocations and outright lies that have been the main fare of the Iranian negotiations as well as the basis of their dealing with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) since the very start. To relent and suffer the restart of negotiations would be to completely ignore the salient fact that President Rouhani was the leading negotiator for Iran at these very same negotiations over the Iranian clandestine nuclear program and he could very honestly be credited with being one of the originators of the oblique and circuitous negotiation technique that has continued to the present. To believe his words of encouragement would be to once again fall for his proven practice of say one thing and mean the opposite for which he gained some amount of reputation during his period of representing Iran at these very talks. Still, if anything could be said to give credit to President Obama, it must be said that he holds a strong proclivity to give second, third and even fourth chances in all the wrong situations.

 

Sometimes President Obama’s actions in negotiations with the enemies of the United States, the Western World and our way of life, he seems to have infinite patience and a level of accommodations to show favor granting them every possible benefit believing even the most ludicrous of claims. It is that track record that has some fully expecting President Obama to take Iranian President Rouhani’s and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s advice and grant the Iranians the benefit of a fresh start and may even go as far as to provide Iran some amount of relief from the current level of sanctions but will, at a minimum, not choose to increase the level of sanctions for as long as he is able to hold off the demands of the Congress and the American people. The additional fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu’s colorfully described newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani as “a wolf in sheep’s clothing” will only redouble President Obama’s irresistible need to grant the Iranian leader as many fresh, new chances as he requests until overwhelmingly pressured by the Congress, the American people, and realities beyond any ability to ignore. The actions by President Obama beg one to inquire why exactly he appears ready to go to any length to guarantee that Iran is permitted adequate time to complete their efforts to join the nuclear club despite the evidence of what ends Iranian Supreme Leader intends to pursue once they have the weapons they continuously tell President Obama they are not researching. Some things just boggle the mind beyond any capabilities for logic to explain, yet explain them we must try.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 8, 2012

Is Attack on Iran Necessarily Dangerous?

Read virtually any news source for a week on the global scene and there will be at least one person quoted claiming that for Israel, the United States, or anybody else to attack Iran over their nuclear program would be foolhardy, dangerous, risky, disastrous, catastrophic or a calamity. In virtually every case the claim is that since no attack upon the Iranian nuclear facilities will permanently end Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, any attack therefore falls short of the goal making it a failure. The argument is always in absolutes as if an attack must result in a total end and not simply a delay pushing the date for attaining weapons status further down the road. You would have to believe that anyone who attacked Iran thus pushing the date of their nuclear breakout anywhere from two to ten years into the future would be completely unable of attacking again when it appeared that Iran had once again come close to completion of weapons capability. Granted, such a resolution is far from perfect and would eventually fail to prevent Iran from building a nuclear arsenal, but doing nothing guarantees such an arsenal much sooner. The point these people seem to make beyond the inconclusive result is that attacking Iran would upset the cold calm and resultant low level of violence in the Middle East and might very well cause a major conflict to break out. When one considers the assets available to Iran to strike back without even using their own military forces by supplying and unleashing their terror proxies around the world, the prospect is indeed unnerving. Most who study the Middle East and Iran in particular are aware that Hezballah is capable of striking anywhere on the globe. Hezballah very likely has more numbers and wider distribution of assets than does al-Qaeda and most are familiar with the reach of al-Qaeda. There is nowhere in the Middle East, Africa, Europe or the Americas that is beyond the reach of Hezballah. It has long been known, as noted in articles from CNN in 2002, NBC News in 2007 and The Heritage Foundation in 2010, that Hezballah has a training facility in South American area known as the tri-border region which borders on Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay.

There is something troubling about these frightening statements which claim severe and varied disasters, they never address the issue of what the situation will be should nothing be done and Iran develop and produce deliverable nuclear weapons in even relative small numbers, say two dozen or so. Where I am more than willing to admit that any strike upon the Iranian nuclear facilities, no matter how precise and restrained from causing collateral damages or casualties, will necessarily lead to some form of retaliation ranging from significant terrorist strikes on targets world-wide targeting mainly assets of Israel, Britain, and the United States to a full-fledged war with multiple countries allying with Iran targeting mostly Israel and the naval and military assets belonging to the United States and those assets from allies which are also in the area. Neither of these scenarios is desirable and no sane person would risk such a retaliatory offensive if other venues could be availed in order to gain the same end result of preventing nuclear arms being produced by Iran. This is why there has not been any military solution implemented thus far and the avenues utilized thus far have been political, economic, social and other soft-power methods. These methods have been being pursued for well over a decade if one counts all economic sanctions against the Iranian government as the United States has had sanctions in place since the 1979 revolution which overthrew the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Despite ever growing restrictions on trade, the sanctions, both United Nations approved and independent sanctions by the United States and many European countries have proven insufficient to force the Iranian leadership to defer to demands and halt their enrichment of Uranium. Where Israel desires a definitive “Red Line” be drawn which, if crossed, would trigger the use of military force to halt Iranian progress with their nuclear programs, President Obama has refused and publically rebuked Israel over this demand. Meanwhile the nations of the European Union have applied even stricter sanctions than those of the United States which is, as is President Obama’s foreign policy is on most situations, leading from behind and has yet to ratchet up sanction to match the Europeans. Meanwhile President Obama and the State Department have issued waivers from having to apply sanctions on Iran to China, India, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom as they are dependent upon Iranian oil for their petroleum needs and other items which were also considered. Sometimes one might wonder if the sanctions are designed to fail or to simply be an annoyance but not the necessarily strangling of the Iranian economy which is necessitated if they are to be successful. One further point is North Korea and the sanctions which were placed upon them to prevent their attaining nuclear weapons capabilities and the fact that those sanctions which relegated some North Korean citizens to be near starvation, the sanctions proved insufficient in stopping their nuclear progress. Does anybody really and honestly expect Iran would be any less dedicated to their goal? So, if we note that the sanctions on Iran have as many holes in them as a colander, that sanctions have never in history prevented a determined nation from attaining nuclear weapons capability, and that it is apparent that neither President Obama, any of the European nations, Russia, China nor anybody else other than the remote possibility of Israel attacking the Iranian nuclear sites, then we had best begin to draw the picture of a world in which Iran has nuclear weapons and soon thereafter Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, and possibly other regional nations would join those nations with nuclear weapons.

In such a world and considering the volatility of the Middle East, how long could we expect that nuclear weapons might be deployed in a first strike capability and not simply kept as a deterrent such as existed during the Cold War? My optimistic prediction would be a decade at the very longest before somebody or group of nations would resort to deploying their nuclear weapons in an effort to destroy Israel or possible one of their neighboring rival states. What is more likely would be the use of a single nuclear weapon by a terrorist entity who would deliver it aboard a ship or plane very likely in a large western city or capital. The possible targets for a nuclear weapon aboard a personal craft, be it an ocean going vessel or a private jet, would be any major city with a port facility or an international or similarly large airport. Offhand that does not leave out any cities in the Western and industrial world. The only defense against such an attack would have to depend on having sufficient intelligence beforehand and preventing the craft from ever leaving its home port or, if it is a ship, intercepting it in international waters before it could approach the shore, and a plane would need to be shot down as once it was airborne there is no way to board the plane, only shooting it down would prevent the plane being used as a suicide bombing. Whatever the threat that we are now considering with just Iran having the possibility of becoming a nuclear power would be multiple times worse as the number of other nations decided that if Iran could have nuclear weapons and not suffer the wrath of the Western powers, then they too are going to also develop nuclear weapons. Then we would very likely be facing a whole new world equation as numerous developing nations, say the majority of the countries making up the one-hundred-twenty non-Aligned Countries in NAM, all having nuclear arsenals and scores to settle. Imagine if every instance in the world where there are currently terror strikes or an active war being fought and now place nuclear weapons at the disposal of those perpetrating the violence or those who respond to attacks also having a nuclear option with which they could forever be rid of an ancient enemy. Picture a military coup where some military leader decides to use their country’s nuclear weapons in order to remove the current government and they simply plan to move the capital city to a less radioactive city after the coup. A world where it might be possible that within fifty years there are over a hundred, maybe even approaching two-hundred nuclear armed nations and the future will not be one of security, it will be a ticking time-bomb. Imagine all the world leaders at the United Nations and they are all playing a game of bridge with their neighboring nation and one of them has a small nuclear device and we get to watch and see which table disappears in a mushroom cloud, and then which one will be next. All it would take is one country or madman to use the first nuclear weapon and after that, who knows. I really would not wish to find out, but it is likely I will not get my wish.

Beyond the Cusp

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