Beyond the Cusp

November 29, 2015

NATO and the Turkey Problem

 

We here at BTC have warned about the eventual problem that Turkey was going to pose for NATO any number of times over the years going back to our article The Turkey Problem for NATO, though we never envisioned it might mean war with Russia to be honest. We saw the problem coming between Turkey and Israel which only was heightened after the Mavi Marmara blockade running confrontation between Israeli Special Forces and the terrorists placed on the lead ship intentionally by IHH terrorist groups posing as a human rights group in our article Let’s Talk Turkey. The problem we saw forming between Turkey and NATO remained centered on their different Middle East views particularly when it came to Israel. This became heightened once again over Iraq and the Second Iraq War when once again the ever more so drifting from a secular state into an Islamic state when at the onset of the second Iraq War Turkey’s entrenched leader refused NATO ally the United States from launching the second pincer of the initial engagement from within Turkey, as originally planned, in the article Turkey Needs to Prove They Belong in NATO Now. Turkey has continued their slide into an Islamic state replete with a strongman with near dictatorial powers in Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It was here in September of 2014 we continued to question the reason for continuing to have Turkey in NATO. The initial reason had been as a stalwart NATO member who could bottle up the bulk of the Russian Mediterranean fleet by refusing them access to the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles, originally and often still referred to as the Strait of Constantinople, through which any ships docked in the Black Sea would necessarily have to pass to make their way from the Black Sea through the Mediterranean Sea and onto the Atlantic Ocean, the only passage once the northern route freezes every winter. It was partially due to having a docking and repair facility which was one of the factors in the Russian seizure of the Crimean and the docks at the port city of Sevastopol and the Sevastopol Docks and Shipyards which is the resting and repair port for the Russian Atlantic Fleet during the winter months. One can see the tactical necessity the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles in the map below.

 

 

From the Sevastopol Docks and Shipyards Across the Black Sea then Through the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles to the Mediterranean Sea and thus the Atlantic Ocean

From the Sevastopol Docks and Shipyards
Across the Black Sea then
Through the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles
to the Mediterranean Sea and thus the Atlantic Ocean

 

 

After the Cold War ended, or at least ended until the current outward weakened appearance of the United States under President Obama, this tactical necessity for containing the Russian Atlantic fleet became far less important. Since the increased strength of the Russian naval forces, particularly its Atlantic and Mediterranean fleet the passage through these Turkish chokepoints had appeared to have lessened. That was before the current madness which is Syria and the Russian presence with both boots in the war in support of Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad. Suddenly fleet access to Sevastopol Docks and Shipyards has once again become of importance, or at least would have except for the lead from behind, well behind, foreign policy, or lack thereof, once again could have blockaded the heavy vessels of the Russian fleet. As it stands currently, the Russian Navy has been sending one of their large cruisers and battleships through these waters in order to have them in the Mediterranean Sea just in case they may be required in Syria. This is also the reason that the Russians are so concerned about their and the Iranian’s puppet in Syria, Bashir al-Assad. The Russians have set up forces both land and sea around the most important area in Syria, the western strip from Damascus with its international airport to the dock city of Latakia as seen in the map below.

 

 

Area West of Demarcation Line is Minimal Area for Russia to Control which Includes Most Military and Dual Use Areas Including the All-Important Area Around Damascus and Latakia Granting Access to Damascus International Airport and the Latakia Shipyards and Docks

Area West of Demarcation Line is Minimal Area
for Russia to Control which Includes Most Military
and Dual Use Areas Including the All-Important
Area Around Damascus and Latakia Granting
Access to Damascus International Airport
and the Latakia Shipyards and Docks

 

 

As the fighting in Syria worsened, especially for Assad and the Russian interest back in February of this year and it began to appear that the Alevites who are the tribe, which the Assad Family belongs, supporting Bashir al-Assad and in turn the Russians we noted the necessity for any outside forces, primarily the United States and NATO, in our article Battle for Middle East and Beyond Are Now Choosing Sides. This article included the Iranian influence as well as the Kurdish forces the neighboring situation in Iraq, ISIS, now calling themselves the Islamic State, but had not included the Russians as their main concerns back then included areas around Latakia and its naval base which was Russian built and was not exactly intended for the Syrian Navy, like they have one. At that time Turkey was less concerned with Assad as they were the Kurdish forces which had actually begun to merge between the Syrian Kurdish fighters and areas with their considerably stronger Kurds in the northern third of Iraq. This was the set-up which leads us directly to the present situation.

 

The sides have been aligned and the battle lines drawn. Russia has ended any pretense of soft support of Bashir al-Assad and the Iranian influence and can be expected to only increase their footprint. Where such may end is anybody’s guess. Meanwhile, the Islamic State appears to be mostly cementing their control over the large area they have carved out between Syria and central Iraq and cleaning house while trying to hold their own against the pressures from the Kurdish Militias, the Peshmerga Militias, who have retaken some of the major cities formerly under Kurdish control or belonged to the Yazidis. The areas liberated from Islamic State forces have revealed the true horrors which are the Islamic State including mass graves. The group presumably vetted and supported by the United States, the so-called Free Syrian Army has proven to be more embarrassment than force to be feared. These forces have been degraded to the point of virtual uselessness but these are still President Obama’s reason d’etre for being even minimally involved in the fight against the Islamic State. Whatever remnants of the Free Syrian Army can be fielded, are being attacked by Russia. This is important for another reason, these were the side backed by Turkey as well as the United States which have served as the conduit for United States aid monies and equipment has been placed into the battle. Much of what was sent presumably for the American trained forces but ended up in the hands of al-Qaeda. The ultimate joke of the entire tragedy which is the Syrian Civil War has been the training and equipping of the Free Syrian Army which had become all but useless as a force in Syria all while the United States invested millions upon millions of dollars and succeeded in training as few as five soldiers and definitely under a dozen. This is the force President Obama has supported and trained almost completely out of existence. These were also Turkey’s best hope for defeating al-Assad and the Turkish pipeline now feeds al-Qaeda forces and very likely is still allowing supplies to flow to the Islamic State just as Turkey has been selling their crude oil and mixing into the Turkish supplies which are piped to refineries and on to Europe. So, the lines have been drawn and the different sides defined even to include the double-dealing of Turkey at the orders from Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A state of status-quo has seemingly set in with the Russians now enforcing al-Assad which includes siding with Iran and fighting the presumably vetted fighters of the Free Syrian Army.

 

This is the force along with al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood presumably supported through the United States efforts and also by Turkey’s efforts and which the Russians have invested their main efforts of their attacks. This has placed the United States technically allied with the Russians against the Islamic State while also supporting those selfsame groups which includes the remnants of the Free Syrian Army all of which being made insignificant due to the efforts by the Russian efforts to degrade their abilities to fight. These forces receive some weak-willed support from Turkey as well as the majority of the United States as these were the forces which were to bring free and open elections to the remnants of the Syrian people who remain. The interesting alignments come to the fore with the Kurds who are despised by Turkey, supported to some extent by Europe and the United States, though most of this aid goes to the Kurdish forces in Iraq; have neutral relations with the Russians and are despised for their success in resisting even some of the greatest efforts by the Islamic State which revolved around Kobane. It was this front of fighting which melded together the two separate Kurdish groups into one Kurdish nation, well, at least as much a nation as is the Islamic State or the remnants of what was Iraq which has had its central region taken by the Islamic State which is now closing in on Baghdad, the Iraqi Capital City. The support structure of the Syrian campaign which has been defined as intended to degrade and defeat the Islamic State, ISIL as President Obama refers to them as well as the Junior Varsity, is confusing to say the least.

 

But much of this all fell by the wayside in the last few days as this was the week that somebody took their stand as solidly as possible and then immediately reassured itself of the backing of the group to which they belong and had a pivotal role to play previously. We are referring to the shoot-down of the Russian fighter-bomber by Turkish anti-aircraft weapons. There were initial reports that one of the Russian pilots managed to parachute from the stricken jet after it was struck by Turkish fire and was captured and executed by Turkish forces but those reports have been found to be false. The pilot in question was rescued in a twelve-hour operation involving Special Forces according to Russia sources. This may help to deescalate the crisis which is Turkey at the moment. It has been suspected, actually a lot stronger than suspected all the way past known and into certitude, which Turkey has been key for Islamic State recruitment allowing them to set up interviewing sessions in hotels which were moved every few weeks to give the appearance of having to avoid being too overt. It is a shame that Turkey did not follow this charade up by having heavily armed police storm the room in the hotel which was used right after they had moved on. This covert on-the-sly support for Islamic State’s most important business, recruitment and their sale of oil, to be channeled through Turkey who makes out financially well due to these facts. Everyone knows that Russia, especially under Putin, does not let things lie unbalanced from their favor even if it takes decades for them to serve-up their cold dish of retribution, some might call it revenge or even vengeance. Turkey must expect some payback from Putin; the only debate is how serious the Russian vengeance will be. What was distressing was that within a few hours Istanbul (Constantinople) had placed a call to Brussels, Belgium in order to request that NATO forces and nations stand ready to support Turkey in the case of any overly overt acts by Russia such as an invasion to take control of Turkey’s greatest asset, the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles, the gateway which separates Europe from Asia. This has been the classic line between the two continents. Now it could become the initial battle in a much greater conflict should it become a reading of blows with each one made to be one measure harder than the previous measure. The main question NATO may need to answer is whether that old remnant from the first Cold War has any teeth or validity now in what is rapidly becoming the second cold War and may go hot at any moment as long as threats of escalation or simply this for that trade-offs to continue.

 

 

Various Stages of Russian Fighter/Bomber During Turkey’s Provocation Over Claimed Airspace Violation by the Russian Pilot

Various Stages of Russian Fighter/Bomber
During Turkey’s Provocation Over Claimed
Airspace Violation by the Russian Pilot

 

 

Where this will go nobody at this moment other than Russian leader Putin and potentially Turkey’s leader Erdogan can say. Both men are strong willed and willing to go to any lengths to maintain their power. Putin switched the job descriptions for the offices of President and Prime Minister in order to get around the term limit and switched everything back as he returned to his previous position. On the other hand, Erdogan used his party and influence to prevent any government from taking power in order to force new elections where through intimidation and other frauds was able to return his party to absolute power with a majority of the seats in the Turkish Parliament. These are the extents these two men have used to remain in power for most if not all of this young century. We can be assured that neither will back down nor will they let such assaults lie without some form of retribution. Meanwhile, there has already been ramification with Russian Foreign Minister cancelling his visit to Turkey which was scheduled for early next month. There have also been a number of trade deals backed out of and voided placing financial pressures on a nation which can ill afford any such disruptions. Truth be told, both nations are financially vulnerable at the moment and this could have further ramification on a world financial situation where very few nations are sitting particularly safe from fallout if a trade war ensues between Turkey and Russia as this would mean potentially Russia refusing to use the oil pipelines which cut through Turkey which would be a major blow to the Turkish economy. One can bet that for as long as this is a contentious issue that Russians will not be vacationing on the Black Sea coast of Turkey, another financial hit on Turkey. Relations and actions will be measured and may quiet as long there are no future provocations between Turkey and Russia though I expect that Russian aircraft may avail themselves of taking bombing routes dangerously close and likely over the Syrian Turkey border rendering that border being crossed by Russian aircraft making raids on Syria acceptable and this be Putin’s revenge because it is the also on the face with the gauntlet followed by throwing at the feet of Erdogan just daring him to take another shot at one of the Russian aircraft ignoring the border at their leisure. This could get intense and seriously large real fast, especially if these two leaders start to play the international form of the game of chicken as neither one of these leaders will even flinch, let alone swerve away at the last moment; this situation would produce a clash of massive proportions which Turkey would be well-advised to avoid because against Putin, Erdogan would lose and Turkey be irrevocably damaged, perhaps destroyed would be more appropriate a term.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 13, 2015

It’s Kristallnacht Déjà vu All Over Again

Filed under: Act of War,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab Authority,Arab League,Arab World,Boycott,Catherine Ashton,Civilization,Conflict Avoidnce,Consequences,Coverup,Domestic NGOs,Europe,European Governments,European Historic Anti Semitism,European Pressure,European Union,European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs,Federica Mogherini,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,History,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jews,Jihad,Jordanian Pressure,Judea,Leftist Pressures,Mainstream Media,Mecca,Media,Media Bias,Medina,Middle East,Muslim Expansionism,Muslim Invade Europe from the East,Muslim Invasoin of Europe from the West,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Pressures,Politicized Findings,Politics,Rioters Pressure,Samaria,Sanctions,Sanctions (BDS),Secular Interests,Settlements,Sharia Law,Six Day War,Slective Choice,Temple Mount,Union Interests,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States State Department,Western Wall,World Opinion,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:35 AM
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It’s Kristallnacht déjà vu all over again, to adjust one of the late Yogi Berra’s famous and odd truisms where this was one of his more cogent statements. The eerie similarities November 9th through 10th in 1938 have now had their first order repeat with modern times now, quoting from Mark Twain who was claimed to have stated, “History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme a lot.” Kristallnacht saw the Brown Shirts mobs rampaging through the Jewish areas in the majority of German towns and cities destroying their businesses, burned down Synagogues, looted homes, murdered at least one hundred Jews, arrested at least thirty-thousand Jewish men to be sent to Nazi concentration camps, destroyed Yeshivas and there were rumored raping of some younger Jewish women and other atrocities. Jewish stores had already been marked with the Star of David painted in yellow and black across thousands of doors and windows, with accompanying anti-Semitic slogans. Signs were posted saying “Don’t Buy from Jews!” (Kauf nicht bei Juden!), “The Jews Are Our Misfortune!” (Die Juden sind unser Unglück!) and “Go to Palestine!” (Geh nach Palästina!). Such activities can be viewed in Picture below. The boycotts and Kristallnacht did not just burst on the scene suddenly out of nowhere. Just as rising anti-Semitism has led to the European Union voting to label Israeli products manufactured, grown, fermented or having any step of its production or harvest from areas beyond the 1949 Armistice Line also called the Green Line; so had rising European anti-Semitism grown facilitating the imposition of the European Union vote to label these particular Israeli goods as they are intended to force the Jews to leave the ‘occupied’ (legally at worst disputed and honestly Israeli) lands which is nothing more than the European Union agreeing with the Arabs that the lands must be made Judenrein. Think about this one truth, the historic lands which the northern half of these lands was referred to as Samaria and had another name historically, Israel and the southern half was called Judea and somehow the world had decided that these lands never did and never can belong to the Jews and that the ancient Jewish capital Jerusalem and its Old City which was the actual ancient capital must now be given to Arabs who gave themselves a name just to change the image from the Arab countries as the Goliath against little Israel as David into the undefeatable IDF and Israel as Goliath against these few Arabs who adopted the Roman given name for Judea of Palestinia, they modernized it to Palestine to benefit from the British term based on the Roman name as well. So the world wants there to be the Jewish People denied the Old City and Temple Mount of Jerusalem, Judea, and ancient lands which were Samaria and also named Israel, what is wrong with the world.

 

 

Kristallnacht Déjà vu All Over Again Nazi Brown Shirts Guard Entrance Preventing Shoppers from Patronizing Jewish Businesses Using Excessive Violence Freely and Enjoying Hurting Anybody Passing By They Feel was Insufficiently Cowed While Other Jewish Stores Were Simply Labeled JUDE and with Star of David to Signal Them as Boycott Stores Under Threats of Violence

Kristallnacht Déjà vu All Over Again Nazi Brown Shirts
Guard Entrance Preventing Shoppers from Patronizing
Jewish Businesses Using Excessive Violence Freely
and Enjoying Hurting Anybody Passing By They Feel
was Insufficiently Cowed While Other Jewish Stores
Were Simply Labeled JUDE and with Star of David to
Signal Them as Boycott Stores Under Threats of Violence

 

 

What has gone wrong is there has been a demonic combination of events which began with the Six Day War in June of 1967 when Egypt and Syria massed troops in the Golan Heights and along the Sinai-Negev borders. Egypt also blockaded the Straights of Tiran blocking Israeli direct access to Asia and also defined as a Casus belli which instituted an Egyptian declaration of war through that act and the massed troops was simply icing on the cake. Egyptian and Syria radio, television and other media carried repeated calls for the destruction of Israel and the genocidal slaughter of driving the Jews into the Sea as was declared by Gamal Abdel Nasser in his critical and historic speech carried in both Egypt and Syria repeatedly every day for over a week. The world was already mourning the end of the Jewish State and lamenting the coming death of near five million Jews with debates of what exactly any nation or organization such as the United Nations might do and these discussions were designed to move mournfully slow until the time had run out and everything was over. Then the impossible and unimaginable happened. Israel struck early one morning with airstrikes which amazingly hit almost every Egyptian and Syrian fighter jets on the ground and shooting down the few which managed to get airborne and mostly left the decoys unharmed sitting between the burning jets on the airstrips. The ground war wasn’t much different as the Israelis launched assaults into the Sinai Peninsula soon surrounding the Egyptian Third Army closed off in the Sinai Peninsula and the Syrian were knocked off the Golan Heights and were slowly retreating towards Damascus. One would be hard pressed to believe the reality as the Syrian and Egyptian media kept reporting their gains and closing on Tel Aviv so the Jordanian King advised by their military decided they were not going to be left out of this historic victory though the Israelis begged them not to be sucked in by the Egyptian and Syrian lies which served to only convince the Jordanians the Jews were losing even worse than the reports and attacked. Israel diverted reinforcements headed for the Sinai and they soon stopped to pray at the Wailing Wall and reported that the Temple Mount was in their hands. By the time it all ended after Six Days, thus the Six Day War, Israel had regained the lands lost in 1948 of Judea, Samaria (ancient Israel), Gaza and Golan Heights and gained the entire Sinai Peninsula and stunned the world. As the Israelis were threatening to cross the Suez Canal and strike into Damascus the world demanded a halt to the war without demanding the Egyptians, Syrians or Jordanians surrender or admit their having been defeated. The Egyptian still teach in their schools about their great victory of June 1967. But it was the world’s reaction which changed the most drastically.

 

The world for a brief period celebrated the unimaginable and stunning victory by Israel in only six days but then came the old bugaboo about the all-powerful Jew and their eventual plan to conquer the world. This was followed by the Israeli victory again and against the odds as they were caught initially flatfooted and with their military and reserves spread throughout the lands in synagogues observing Yom Kippur; but after Israel gathered her troops and resurged; they again routed Egypt and Syria until the world again demanded a stop without Egypt or Syria accepting their defeat. Then Israel began to have their economy branch out and began to develop a high tech sector, innovative start-up sector and also making discoveries in agriculture, medicine and sciences both hard and soft of all varieties. This suspicions and old misgivings against Jewish excelling and success again nudged Europe to return to their centuries old hatreds which has slowly gained traction and grew. Then it got a massive influx of funding and a serious and well-financed propaganda campaign claiming the Jews were committing atrocities and had used nefarious and ill-gotten advantages in their wars and were using their same old tricks to gain advantages in business and so many other of the old malice and hatreds. Joining in grudges against the Jews was almost natural and with an entire Jewish nation, Israel; nothing could be better or make a larger target. Hating Israel became the low hanging fruit for those seeking a reason for anything wrong with their world. When economic problems struck as in the late 1970s and again in the early 90s anti-Semitism, anti-Zionism and anti-Israelism grew. Eventually the three, though technically separate in some particulars, they all became known as anti-Zionism. This was chosen largely because the United Nations had equated Zionism with Racism under direct pressures by the Arab League nations and was pushed through the General Assembly with the support of the Nonaligned Nations (NAM) which gave the Arab nations an automatic majority to pass almost any General Assembly Resolution which carries the weight of a suggestion which becomes annulled as soon as any effected nations rejects the resolution.

 

The next situation which cast Israel in an even worse light was the pressures on the media who were mostly too wary to step out of line and eventually the main news services began relying on stringers for their reporting and pictures from the Arab controlled area. Further, some reporters saw an opportunity to make a name for themselves by taking a position in the Middle East and become known for their reporting on the abuses reportedly committed by the IDF and other Israeli security personnel with staged incidents which were at one point actually revealed by 60 Minutes report on what became known as Pallywood as shown in the video below. Despite such damning reporting by a reputable new team, the world found it more satisfying to continue with their comfort zone which believes the Arab falsehoods because it serves their need for a familiar enemy, and what is a more familiar enemy for much of Europe than the Jews, or who are now called the Zionists. This became even more obvious during the Durban Conference in 2001 which was officially titled “World Conference against Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance” but devolved within minutes into a free-for-all demonizing Israel from where it spiraled completely into an area from which return is all but impossible. This has been proven with ensuing of the Durban series of conferences, each a simple reassurance and restatement of the original anti-Israel hate-fest begun in the first conference. With denunciations of Israel coming from numerous NGOs, being denounced by the United Nations Human Rights organizations at almost every meeting, UNESCO under pressure granting the Arab Palestinians the rights of sole protector of what are Jewish and Christian Holy Sites which predate Islam such as Rachel’s Tomb, Cave of the Patriarchs, Church of the Holy Sepulchre and numerous others and some still to be decided in Bethlehem, Hevron and other sites.

 

 

 

 

This brings us finally to the European Union labeling of Israeli goods they believe are from areas which the European Union agree that should have the Jews completely removed as there are apparently places where Jews must not be permitted to reside. Europeans demanding that lands be completely cleared of its Jews, sounds eerily familiar. The decision has not been finalized but perhaps we can be helpful and suggest an example which they might decide fit the bill and are sufficiently different than the Nazi symbols such as swastikas or yellow Star of David with JUDE written large within the star center (depicted below). What is most troubling is that the agitators who pushed so hard to get this action from the European Union but that does not mean they are too tired to continue. As a matter of fact, as this effort should have taken much out of the agitators, the decision by the European Union will now see a regenerated, and European Union targeted demonstrations demanding the full range of BDS be imposed on all of Israel until they do whatever it takes to give the Palestinians a state equal to their desires. Do not expect this to be a finished deal for the European Union and even after the collapse before the BDS protesters who are less interested, for the most part, in the forming of a Palestinian state as they are interested in the destruction of the one and only Jewish State. Now that the European Union has bowed before the pressures which included rioting and demonstrations, they will now face added pressures for their adopting a BDS approach to everything made by Israel hoping to cause Israel and her economy to become destroyed and thus bring down the Jewish State returning the Jews to their downtrodden position within the nations where they had been before the setting up of the state of Israel for intended destruction. The question, surprisingly, is not whether the Israelis will survive but rather whether the Europeans are going to be capable of surviving as Israelis are at comfortably higher than replacement levels, something the Europeans only manage through their recent new arrivals and the finalizing loss of Jews and the replacement of these with families of Jews exiting are being filled by Muslims seeking a better life. These new arrivals will likely have cultural difficulties and may never leave the areas in which they feel safest. It is appearing that Israel will easily outlast Europe as the Europeans prove to have more difficulties both economic and with assimilating these newcomers. This time the Jews are armed with an army which is well-trained and dedicated to their safety and proved to be very proficient at that task.

 

 

European Union Boycott Spoofing Label from Elder of Zyion

Above Sticker is the Creation of
 Elder of Zyion Credit Banner

Memo:

 

Foil EU boycott by purchasing these EU marked goods, even preferring these goods (the oranges and wines are particularly good), of Jewish products from factories which, as well as being from outside an arbitrary armistice line marking where fighting stopped to end 1948-9 War of Israeli Independence denoting the front line as of noon of a certain day, and which factories employ Palestinians who are not able to work in Israel inside Armistice Lines, and who work peacefully and gainfully side-by-side with Jews and who would lose their employ if these businesses were forced to shut down or relocate. These manufacturers are the exact dream the EU claims they support, Arabs and Jews cooperating to their mutual benefit peaceably and productively benefitting both Arab Palestinian workers and Jewish workers. These manufacturers are the future, if there is to be one, other than a final war.

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 18, 2015

Parliament and Assembly of Experts

 

Nobody is asking President Obama or Secretary of State Kerry what the United States is going to do once Russia, China, European Union, United Nation and the rest of the world have all already dropped their sanctions and are ready to deal and Iran rejects the deal, what is next? Surely the Iranians know that it is business as usual as soon as a signing date has been suggested for officially lifting all sanctions making Iran officially open for business. There will not be any manner or way the P5+1, United Nations or other entity will be capable of putting the cork back in the bottle and keeping the Djinni trapped inside; it will have been free and its bargain time opening Iran for business. All Iran need do is coast with all signs being that their Parliament and Assembly of Experts all approving the deal with each level having a smaller and smaller majority where at the second highest level of governance, the Assembly of Experts, a group of Imams and Mullahs who are tasked with the most important of tasks, appointing Supreme Leaders when necessitated and advising the current Supreme Leader. With the public image of Iran all reportedly approving the Nuclear Deal and even the United States straggling in after the political theater has run its course, the only individual who will have held decisive commentary will be the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

 

Whereas the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had commented being not that thrilled with the deal and potentially disapproving the deal, he still will have not given his final word. The morning of the signing is at hand and it is scheduled to be the pinnacle event at the opening of the General Assembly opening ceremonies. This event is so big that it has totally eclipsed the Palestinian annual demand for statehood, even the nuclear deal has its bonuses, and the Presidents and Prime Minister from all six nations which made up the P5+1 negotiations. This includes Prime Minister of Britain David Cameron, Premier of China Li Keqiang, President of France François Hollande, President of Russia Vladimir Putin, Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel, President of the United States Barack Obama, President of Iran Hassan Rouhani are all gathered for the events in New York City at the United Nations building at Turtle Bay and it is just minutes away from the final signing of the deal. The speeches have been given and the leaders all are ready to sign the official treaty. One by one they sign the document each attempting to look and appear regal while signing the treaty placed approximately at hip level while standing before the wide podium holding the treaty. Only two signatures remain, President Barack Obama’s and President Hassan Rouhani’s. President Obama steps up and signs the treaty then makes his way to the speaker’s podium and gives a brief few words about the momentous occasion and the promising future this document promises, unusual for the President, and finishes his speech signaling to his Iranian counterpart and states, ‘With the signature of this treaty Iran will reenter the community of nations with the promise of cooperation, moderation and an outlook which will fill the world with hope, President Rouhani.’

 

President Obama entices the Iranian leader to approach and sign the treaty with a grand sweeping motion extending his arm with an open hand. Iranian President Rouhani steps up next to the President who steps back one step allowing the Iranian leader the microphone. President Rouhani’s speech is even more to the point and brief, ‘I am here today representing the people of Iran and the determined desires of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,’ President Rouhani then steps two steps to his left and deliberately bends and snatches the parchment from the signing podium and tears it in halves, then halves again and again and one last time in halves throwing the sixteen squared tears out onto the floor before a room filled with horrified leaders all at a loss for what just occurred. The tension is felt throughout the room, the fears felt around the world as they watch live on televisions and jaws drop as the Iranian President stalks from the room leaving a silence so deafening it would swallow any sound made anyway. Slowly the room of world leaders, diplomats and select media gather their wits. Cameramen turn their lenses to the anchor reporter assigned to cover this historic event and the anchors are still gathering their wits. Only Jon Stewart reacts spontaneously and immediately covering the event for the Comedy Channel who immediately blurts out, ‘Well, there goes Obama’s legacy, imagine that, his entire legacy lying on the floor in sixteen torn shreds of parchment that he fought Congress over as if it would matter, never mind!’

 

The reality is this is this situation is quite likely if one feels the pulse coming from Iran. There are demonstrations against the deal and many in the Parliament and other positions which merit coverage claiming that the deal is insulting and damages the Iranian image and that going through with the deal will simply humiliate Iran, something almost every Iranian would agree is not something at all desirable, though there might be as many reasons that could be seen as bad as there exist political outlooks, still all want their country seen as strong and reliable. The troubling signs in Iran is the higher one looks for clues across the numerous power structures. The vision as one climbs higher gets increasingly negative towards the Nuclear deal. Many in Iran view any limitations on their nuclear program as an insult and the demands for snap, invasive and unannounced inspections as mistrust and equates their leaders as being untrustworthy and calling everybody in Iran to be deceivers. There exists rejection for the nuclear deal in Iran coming largely from the most hardline politically and many of the university students who are of similar political ire being the leaders in the drive to reject the nuclear treaty. These divisions in Iranian society and the fact that the hardline politician and the most radicalized students are the ones being permitted to give voice to their feelings should be found to be quite revealing and perhaps as a portend of coming events.

 

There is another signal that all may not be going well with the political environment in Iran. Leading in these suspicions that we have been feeling here, goes beyond the rising angst as one climbs the power structures in Iran, is the recent announcement that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is claiming he will run again for the Presidency of Iran, or we wish we could call his political career, Achmed the Dead Terrorist for President. Simply make the required thought changes to the video below replacing Achmed or Achmed the Dead Terrorist with Ahmadinejad or Ahmadinejad for President, you get the idea. Perhaps Ahmadinejad could use some variant of Achmed the Dead Terrorist in a televised campaign ad, but then he might run afoul of the strictness police who would object to such humor.

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, news reports are all focused like a laser on Washington D.C. and the debate as to whether the House or Representatives, a given by all accounts, and the Senate will pass a piece of legislation in an attempt to void the Iran Nuclear Agreement. Many are curious why this ‘agreement’ requires legislation to kill it and not a supermajority support in only the Senate to ratify it as the treaty it actually represents. Apparently the Constitution has been tossed aside for the remainder of President Obama’s time in office and may have been considered void by the Administration for some time now. Nobody is focused much on Iran despite the fact that they too are in the middle of an affirmation which actually depends on a single person and his general health both physical and mental on the morning set for the signing, which we have predicted for the opening ceremonies for the General Assembly and its 70th session which starts on Tuesday, September 15, 2015 and lasts until closing on Tuesday, October 6 2015. Since the United States Senate has until September 17, 2015 to decide on the legislation, assuming they pass the legislation negating the agreement, as expected, and the President in turn vetoes and sends it back, then we can bet that the United States very well may not have ended the discussions and votes before the signing ceremony, thus making two nations unannounced about their signing the Nuclear Agreement. Never mind what the United States Congress decides, President Obama will claim he is simply signing the agreement passed by the United Nations Security Council, which is the exact same agreement, and will be seen to be signing for the United States quite possibly despite the subsequent override of his veto if for no other reason than his presumptuous signing despite Congress still having to vote on their override. Such disrespect by the White House might be exactly what the opposition to the Iran Deal might need to use such insult and disregard to garner the likely five votes they will be short of override when passing the legislation in the Senate. It appears to be assumed that the House of Representatives will have sufficient votes to override any veto leaving only the Senate in question.

 

What will the United States Senate and the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei both do, approve or veto the Iran Nuclear Weapons Agreement? This may be all the proof that President Obama might need to equate those Senators and Representatives who vote to override his veto with the most hardline individual in Iran, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as both decided to reject the treaty for polar opposite reasons, but why would common sense and the motivation get in the way of a good lynching of President Obama’s opponents in the leftist and mainstream, but I repeat myself, media. One would have to wonder at this point, does the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei actually agree with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on the agreement being a poor deal or is it possible for polar opposites to both refuse the same offering but for grandly different reasons?

 

 

Netanyahu and Khamenei face off while both mat end up being the two who opposed the Iran Nuclear Deal so precious and treasured by United States President Obama whose legacy depends on the success. What will follow should Iran refuse to ratify the deal and just walk away and likely soon thereafter quit the NPT, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty

Netanyahu and Khamenei face off while both mat end up being the two who opposed the Iran Nuclear Deal so precious and treasured by United States President Obama whose legacy depends on the success. What will follow should Iran refuse to ratify the deal and just walk away and likely soon thereafter quit the NPT, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty?

 

 

What will follow should Iran refuse to ratify the deal and just walk away and likely soon thereafter quit the NPT, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty? Who could have ever believed that the two standout opponents of the Iran deal could be the two men pictured above? The world keeps getting curiouser and curiouser.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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