Beyond the Cusp

April 15, 2015

Russia Iran Mutual Assistance Agreement

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What do Russia and Iran have in common? If your answer was sanctions, congratulations. The two have been under sanctions from the western nations. So, you might think that two nations under sanctions would both be suffering cash shortages and thus would both be too financially strapped to assist each other in any way. But there are ways nations can assist each other that do not require dollars, Euros, Pounds Sterling or any other normative tenders. But then the Iranians, or maybe for this we might call them by their original name, Persians and the Russians are returning to a more familiar means from history, trade and bartering. The Russians have something the Iranians have desired and made agreements which were prevented by combined actions by the United States and Israel, their advanced S-300 antiaircraft radar and missile systems. But what could the Iranians have that the Russians could use? Oddly enough, despite Russia being an oil exporter they have made an arrangement where the Iranians initially will pay for these advanced systems by shipping oil to the Russians and change their style of payment to some form of cash, not necessarily petro-dollars but rather some alternate currency which may be the initial first step to establishing an alternative international currency to compete with the dollar which Iran and Russia have been pressing for largely seeking to enjoin China in this effort which they believe might make such a currency internationally acceptable. In the meantime the oil provided as payment to the Russians will simply become a part of their own petroleum reserves as oil is an extremely fungible commodity which can be sold without fearing the buyer will be running laboratory tests to trace its nation of origin.


The Russians are moving on delivering these advanced antiaircraft radar and missile systems which are capable of targeting multiple aircraft including cruise missile and possibly some forms of ballistic missiles (not IBCM but ballistic mid-range missiles which do not leave the atmosphere and reenter the atmosphere) as quickly as the systems can be assembled, tested and configured. The Russians are showing little signs of putting this deal on hold and waiting for the sanctions to be officially removed and are not concerned whether the sanctions are going to be immediately removed upon the signing of a nuclear agreement as the Iranian Framework Agreement Farsi translation states, or gradually over a period of time after Iran meets certain markers as President Obama’s copy of the Framework Agreement claims. This not concerning the Iranians is more than readily believable and with the weakness shown by President Obama with his message requested to be given Putin by former Russian President Medvedev about his greater ability to be more flexible after the 2014 elections, like now, there will be no respect for anything President Obama might think forcing Putin to delay this deal more than about ten seconds. The Russians are actually apparently anxious to provide the Iranians with their advanced S-300, or perhaps the improved S-400, complete mobile anti-aircraft systems, almost as anxious as the Iranians are to receive them and put them around their nuclear development sites, even those sites which they will have switched over to spinning a mixture of gasses including a base noble gas and a cross-section of other gasses so that the cascaded centrifuges will retain their calibration and be immediately returned to uranium enrichment as soon as restrictions are retired, or whenever the Iranians decide to shoot for a nuclear weapon and deny the IAEA inspections and ignoring all restrictions of any agreement reached in the nuclear negotiations.


While the threat to use the military option should Iran break the deal reached presumably between now and June 30th and has repeatedly been brought to the world’s, and especially the media’s, collective attention by President Obama, the one truism existing is that the military option will remain there on the table for as long as President Obama is in office. The problem is that should the Russian deal with the Iranians come to fruition, and we doubt any threats from the west, either the Europeans or President Obama, are likely between the Russian energy stranglehold over the Europeans and President Obama’s greater flexibility, exercised like a man without a spine, would be believed by President Putin who would likely make a threatening move and all would wilt before his shirtless form. As far as the Iranians are concerned, and has been proven by the fiasco which have passed as negotiations, they really do not care what the rest of the world thinks and they know they have the upper hand as the Europeans have the military preparedness of a preschool compared to the Iranian missiles which can easily reach virtually all of Europe and the Americans have President Obama whose effeminateness precludes his taking any strong military attack is nil. Once the Russians have provided the Iranians with sufficient S-300 systems they will have become relatively immune from most military airstrike be they from jet fighter-bombers or cruise missiles. The S-300 systems radar station can track at least a dozen separate aircraft (up to seventy-two are trackable in its most advanced systems) and target six missiles in flight (up to thirty-six are targetable in its most advanced systems). A number of missiles are matched with a central radar system and both the missiles and radar system are mounted on trucks making the entire systems mobile, thus making them less easily targeted and easily relocated to guard targets considered most vulnerable at any given time. The S-300 systems, assuming the deal will provide Iran with as many systems as they desire, will make any air strikes by the Israelis close to impossible and at the least excessively costly in the cost of aircraft, and more importantly, pilots either lost or captured. Such a system would require stealth aircraft to avoid the high resolution wide-array radars. This would make Israeli Air Force excessively vulnerable and their initial targets would necessarily need to be the radar systems followed by the antiaircraft missiles themselves. Daring such attacks while not having the stealth aircraft for the mission would still present challenges which would tax any pilots beyond imagination. As far as a strike force from the United States, it would likely take their every F-22 Raptor escorting every B-2 Stealth Bomber with special radar seeking missiles equipped on the Raptors and for many of the buried and reinforced nuclear sites, especially the Fordow site, would require bunker-buster munitions with some requiring the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) which weighs 30,000 pounds (14,000 kg), with a length of 20.5 feet (6.2 m) and a circumference of 31.5 inches (0.80 m) and originally required a modification of the B-2 Stealth Bomber in order to carry this unfathomably strange and huge munition. Such an attack will not be even slightly possible before the next Presidential Inauguration before it should even be considered remotely possible, and then it will be dependent on who is the new President the people of the United States elect. The truth be told, this deal will be the final nail removed from the coffin to allow the nuclear mummy to rise from the crypt and begin the nightmarish specter of a nuclear armed theocratic realm with apocalyptic visions and aspirations to rise and spread the fears of nuclear annihilation across the globe and also release the spreading specters of fears spread to the rest of the Islamic nations of the Middle East and Northern Africa starting any number of nations, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait and beyond take this as their starting whistle to developing their own nuclear weapons to balance against any Iranian threats. A world with such a spread of nuclear arms will have become one threat removed from a miscalculation spawning a reaction which very easily could tilt the balance into crazy and soon might follow the raining of missiles carrying the end of life as we know it as the clouds rise in a column then spreading their bulbous sides outward making a large caldron of swirling hot gasses spreading outward poisoning a large swath of Earth and changing our outlook into the future, if there is to be a future, if there is going to be a future at all.


Beyond the Cusp


April 8, 2015

The Iran Framework Controversies and Forbidden Areas


The reports, statements, coverages, and interviews of the separate teams of the United States and Iranian teams and political leaders about the terms derived from the Framework wording differ by a little more than a measure of degrees and are approaching diametric opposites. One might question how such difference between interpretations could ever exist from the exact same set of words which they had agreed to and both surmised meant something similar to their adversaries on the other side of the table. The truth turns out to be one of the most damning realities of the entire fiasco this far as the English version and the Farsi barely resemble each other and the French and European Union foreign policy head Federica Mogherini versions borderline being meaningless and contradictory terminology, perhaps because they were written in the original international political language, French. How translations from presumably identical base text can become so completely different may be something apparently impossible, but then these translations are being produced by the finest spin doctors on the planet that money can buy. We need to remember that the renditions we are hearing have all been filtered through different lenses and bounced off opposing mirrors and then twisted and rotated until they represent exactly what each side promised their public would be the result of the negotiations proving their mastery of the situation. Of course this leads to another problem which will simply serve to muddy the water further as each source reporting on the results will be, thanks to the international reach of media, using the source text from whichever result be it the confused and meaningless French to the Farsi or the English version presented in the United States when making their case that the Framework represents exactly what they had predicted.


So, what is it we can actually take from these various versions of the Framework? Initially we know we can take virtually any reading about any particular area of the Iranian nuclear program, the international sanctions and all the threats, promises, innuendoes and ramifications from every last talking head, politician, national leader and individual negotiator cares to put on the Framework. Our interpretation of the Framework is that it is an amorphous, incoherent, ambiguous and vague congruence of terms resembling a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. The Framework in the form explained by both the United States President’s Administration and the representatives of the Supreme Leader in Iran will both be cast aside and the full fury fur-ball of unrestrained political recriminations immediately followed by declarations decrying the misinterpretations of their opposing interpretations of the Framework which will quickly lead to a restart from square-one and discarding all interpretations of the Framework as they will all prove unacceptable by one side, the other or both. The probability that a final agreement will be possible by the June 30th deadline depends on what year you place at the end, 2015 makes that highly doubtful and any year other than that we all had best hope are just as ridiculous. The question becomes what will be the reaction when the lack of any possibility of reaching a mutually agreeable settlement becomes unavoidable. Our expectation is that Iran does not even begin to desire any agreement which will limit their desires for becoming the next nuclear armed nation thus they have no requirement to reach any agreement beyond the level of sanctions being enforced or any other of the potential ramifications of refusing to bend and reach an accord. President Obama has already revealed his desired action is lowering the level of sanctions by releasing some of the sanctions over the Iranian economy thus enticing Iran over ramping up sanctions to force Iran to comply or face economic ruin. By making his method enticement over punishment, Iran has no fear that President Obama will make things more difficult for their intransigence but rather will relieve the pressures of the sanctions as a reward for future Iranian compliance. By using the carrot over the stick, President Obama has encouraged at the very least an initial rejection of even the most generous of conditions waiting for the release of sanctions before having to agree to an offer and then demanding additional sanctions be release upon agreement. This has rewarded Iran already to a point where the present sanctions are not sufficient to apply economic pressures where the government is in any peril of a revolt by the people. Even currently the inspection regime attempting to be executed by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) is minimal and nowhere near being beyond all reasonable expectations yet the Iranians have refused many of their demands for explanations of previous potential military research and actions and the IAEA also suspects that the Iranians have recently opened an unannounced facility near Tehran deep underground beneath existing buildings so as to disguise the operations and provide an unobservable entrance equipped with their most modern centrifuges operating in cascades producing enriched uranium outside of any restrictions as reported by the same anti-regime sources who originally reported the Iranian nuclear program to the world.


Should this new report ever become verified it then begs an even bigger question, what should the United States demand from Iran due to their attempted intrigues? We all probably read reports or actually listened to videos or seen President Obama make his announcement that “all options remain on the table including the military option.” We have often debated what exactly that statement means and what we can expect. We have reached one singular point of agreement that the always mentioned military option which is stressed to be on the table is mentioned so prominently because it will never ever be taken from its position on the table by President Obama. It is very possible that no United States President in the foreseeable future could in-gather sufficient popular public support to permit taking the military option off the table and implement it. Then we often hear that at the first hint that the Iranians have transgressed any of the terms of the agreements, assuming one is ever formed and unilaterally accepted, the sanctions which had been terminated could be immediately reinstituted and applied pressing Iran to immediately come back into compliance or pay the continued penalty. This is considered unlikely for the duration of the Obama Presidency and will be dependent on who wins the elections in 2016 who will decide what should be done sanctions wise concerning any Iranian refusal to comply completely with any agreement reached during the upcoming negotiations. A lot depends on what the final draft of any agreement stipulates and even further, what the Iranians agree it stipulates, after all everything does depend on what the meaning of is, is; not to mentions the other words such as enrichment, centrifuges, cascade, modern, fastest, most, advanced, least and every word or phrase within the agreement. This problem has been made excessively evidenced by the seemingly opposite definitions to the agreement when it was translated into French (ambiguous), Farsi (near complete freedom to continue full speed with their program and immediate end to all sanctions and no necessary inspections routine) and English (shuttering of two-thirds of centrifuges, Arak reactor neutered, solely old centrifuge use, strict inspection routine and who knows whatever other restrictions). If each side is left to their own translations and thus their own conditions then why are there scheduled additional negotiations? Apart from permitting each side to report their own interpretations of the terms, there are numerous other reasons for simply putting off the remainder of the negotiations indefinitely as neither side is regarding the talks as a serious negotiation to try and prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons. The Iranians are set on developing and building nuclear weapons capability and a delivery system making it an equal or superior to any other nuclear power in the world and President Obama is intent on putting off any Iranian actions using nuclear weapons until at least five years after he has left office making him apparently blameless and thus not interfering with his legacy as the greatest negotiator and international diplomat in history, at least the equal of Neville Chamberlain. Does this mean that Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu is playing the part of Sir Winston Churchill? If so, he had better be ready for the media and a near unending political lynching and denunciations coming from all corner of the globe, but then how much different is this from normal in today’s anti-Israel, anti-Semitic and anti-Zionist filled world. Let the insanity begin, or should we say continue at current pace.


Beyond the Cusp


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