Why Iranian Nuclear Program Matters

 

President Obama would like the world to believe that there was a nuclear deal reached, signed, sealed and delivered to the Security Council and set into stone. There are a few problems with that story line, namely the Iran part of the deal. The part of the nuclear deal which is valid is that the sanctions have been lifted, Iran is back in the oil and pistachio business while European companies are tripping over each other in a race to sign deals with Iran and get their share of the billions which are going to be flowing when Iran receives the monies the United States is obligated to release from banks and investment accounts. The deal passed by the Security Council made the European and United States parts of the deal sealed and delivered and sent the Iranian part of the deal to Iran where it was graciously received and filed in the nearest wastebasket. Think back and try to remember the conflicting news reports from those final days of the Iran nuclear negotiations with the P5+1 consisting of Russia, China, Britain, France, the United States plus Germany and think back to the celebratory language and you might remember that the Obama White House and State Department were claiming one set of conditions, the Europeans had their version, Russia and China made very few statements with some in interviews with Western news interviews revealing that they were uncertain on a number of issues in Moscow and Beijing remaining mute and Iran claiming an entirely different interpretation and having doubts that the remaining difficulties would ever be bridged. I’m not sure those differences were ever ironed out nor does it appear that Iran has ever considered themselves to have made any promises to the Western World or the United Nations or anybody else. For the record, the Iranian parliament has never approved any deal that the United States or anybody else can honestly report and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has never signed any paperwork for a deal and thus Iran is not legally bound to anything just as the State Department freely admitted in a letter to Representative Mike (R-Kan.) of the House Intelligence Committee.

 

This admission simply echoes the actions by Tehran which has now made two test launches of ballistic missiles which would have definitively been forbidden by any deal admitted to exist by any of the Western Nations as well as the United Nations interpretations of the agreement, but nobody appears to be rearing up in reaction to these tests. There has been no ‘snapback’ of sanctions and the releasing of funds as theoretically agreed upon by western Nations in any version of a deal is proceeding along on schedule. Are we the only ones who seem concerned that there appears to be an agreement to free the dogs of nuclear ambitions in Iran while obliging the West to release the funds and remove all sanctions which might have proven to be an impediment and chaining the United States and European nations to back the Russian, Chinese and Iranian desires for business as usual as if there is not a care in the world? A quick check of news stories and it seems the most recent testing of another nuclear delivery capable continental ballistic missile, the most powerful yet and a decent sign that Iran is aiming for Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capabilities and is going at such capabilities with some vigor does concern any number of responsible adults. Unfortunately the closest the White House has come to a responsible adult has been United Nations Ambassador Samantha Power who stated at a Congressional hearing last week, “discussions are a form of U.N. action.” So, apparently the White House left Congress and themselves no actual control over sanctions and thus the possible ‘snapback’ is solely in the hands of the United Nations where such is an impossibility and even if the United States acted, theirs would necessarily be a whole new set of sanctions which are presumably forbidden by the presumed deal which is no deal and the White House would necessarily, as they have stated, veto any such sanctions. So as it currently sits, Iran will receive their $150 billion in unfrozen assets within the next six months, can test missiles to their hearts’ delight and all are to proceed as if there are sanctions on Iran when in reality the sanctions are on the Western Powers making sanctions near to impossible and now even the IAEA has officially surrendered before the Iranian games of guile as we reported recently in What the IAEA Closure of Their Iran Investigations Really Meant.

 

What has been successfully pulled off by deceptiveness, chicanery and outright lies is the freeing of Europe to return to their preferred business as usual and ignore the consequences, a similar aspect to their recent receipt of the first wave of ‘Syrian refugees’ and intent to make them legal citizens almost automatically which will grant them new visas from their new home nation and also grant them instant acceptance on the visa waiver program the United States shares with the European Union. What could be better as it has been made obvious that the vast majority of these ‘Syrian refugees’ are not Syrian, are not refugees, are not dirt poor losing everything in the civil war and Bashir al-Assad’s butchery and are intent on infiltrating the United States as they see Europe rightfully as all but conquered already. What we do have as the vast majority of these ‘Syrian refugees’ are military age single males with plenty of money and a penchant for rioting and causing disturbances and will very likely prove to be the tip of the spear with the only question being are they Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Taliban, or Iranian IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) trained infiltrators who have received some of the best training in sabotage and other disruptive acts and also master coordinators (community organizers on steroids). Whatever and whomever they are operating under, this sizeable sector of the ‘Syrian refugees’ who have poured into Europe, largely centered on Germany and the Scandinavian nations all of which have some of the best social services with the highest welfare payment structures in all of Europe, and with a fair share of the ‘Syrian refugees’ now headed to the final target on the list, the United Kingdom; their aims are becoming ever more clear, to bring Europe to its knees and then simply take charge of its remnants and turn it all over to whichever group manages to wrench control from the rest of the other groups. This simply means that the next front of the Syrian civil war turned Sunni-Shiite war will be being fought across Europe just as soon as the Christian and Atheist Secular Humanists have been murdered in large part or converted to Islam or converted to being good little worker Dhimmis producing for their new taskmasters. The alternative is a revolution by the Europeans themselves which will end very poorly for both sides as this will become very quickly a war of extermination and who will prove the strongest force and last group standing is in doubt though we would place our money on the home team as they know the landscape and will be fighting for their own survival and the survival of their way of life and the Europeans have proven their ability for warfare and the heritage to match. The question which needs answering is when, or should it be, will the European Union and the individual governments such as Angela Merkel’s Germany and François Hollande’s France wake from their utopian dream, which is proving to be a hellish nightmare for their people, before their nations are so overrun with ‘Syrian refugees’ that recovery has been made impossible? If not, does the average European have it within them to force their leaders to heed and save the lands before it is too late? The greatest of fears is that for Western Europe it may already be too late.

 

The other ramification of the ‘Syrian refugees’ problem is that with much of Eastern European nations, former Warsaw Pact nations plus Greece, have closed their borders allowing those who wish to take trains through to Germany and other points west with the train stations along the tracks well-guarded to force the ‘Syrian refugees’ through to all points west. What way will these nations be turning once NATO ceases to offer them any real protection? We see their returning to the Russian sphere of influence as Vladimir Putin (aka Vlad the Invader), offering a stronger arm in protecting them from the invading ‘Syrian refugees’ and all that encompasses, then turning to the seemingly feckless United States which has proven itself to be weak and unsupportive at best and traitorous at worst. Poland and the Czech Republic, despite being the victims of President Obama’s cancellation of the radar and anti-missile system which had been approved for delivery and operation on their bases, might hold out and wait to see who wins the 2016 United States elections though if pressed would likely seriously consider placing their bets on a sure thing, meaning Putin. And now we can probably name the three things which will be the Obama legacy; first, a nuclear armed Middle East tinderbox; second, a neutered United States military degraded to a point of near impotence; and third, removing any trust in the United States as her promises have been proven to be simply worthless if any change of administration can so abruptly and totally alter the realities and break any and all promises with allies apparently is just as easily done as it is with revolutions in third world nations. The last one which renders the United States as untrustworthy will prove to be the straw which breaks the camel’s back as if the word of the President of the United States is only good for as long as he or his party holds the Office of the President, then what worth does any Presidential promise hold? Even worse was that President Obama also went back on promises made by President Willian Jefferson Clinton which infers that even same party Presidencies may prove untrustworthy of keeping promises made by previous Presidents of their own party. One thing which has been made evidently obvious is that any nation relying on the United States to have their back had best also have their own Plan B just in case they find their back suddenly rendered vulnerable as their strongest protection of their back having quit and gone home prematurely. Further, depending on the United States to actually produce and make good on promises of weapons systems being completely dependent on any new President continuing with the production or delivery of promised systems should put the fear of heaven in them as the anti-missile systems and radar cancelled and the premature stoppage of production of the F-22 Raptor proved as that was the fighter the United States was counting on for granting her air superiority over any other nation, something the F-35 joint strike fighter does not and may even prove to be less of a fifth generation fighter when compared to the Eurofighter Typhoon or the Russian Sukhoi Su-27.

 

 

 

 

These are the lasting legacies of President Obama and they will all but destroy the faith in the world of any United States President for some time into the future until trust can be proven or given a legal basis. The only item which may be seen as trustworthy might be actual treaties which have the full backing of the congress and the Courts, including especially the Supreme Court and as such may be proven to be beyond the reach of any American President to negate by his or her own power without running afoul of the Courts and Congress. Even this will need to be seen by those who have been burnt the most by this administration and its complete disregard for precedent, Presidential respect for and by other administrations and potentially the rule of law which would make even treaties only as good as the President and congress who made them and otherwise potentially worthless. The United States is going to have to face these issues and either find some manner of placing the nation behind the promises of their Presidents going forward when a new President takes the office and has a different view of the world and sees the promises of the predecessor as unbinding upon them, that must be changed if the United States ever desires to be respected and trusted ever again. Perhaps it is time for a previously unthought of and seemingly unnecessary Amendment to the United States Constitution which will state that once the President and the Congress have declared use of the United States military to undertake a task that from that point forward or until a supermajority of two-thirds of both houses of congress and the President together call the mission complete, the military will remain on stations until the military Joint Chiefs of Staff declare the mission completed. Such an amendment would restore faith that once the United States military was deployed that they would not simply pull out leaving whatever governance they left in place completely vulnerable and it will cause the Congress and President to carefully spell out the necessary accomplishments of every mission long before troops would be deployed. Both of these required changes in the way troops are deployed and returned from deployment would make for stricter definitions of any mission and a clear promise that once the United States troops are deployed and tasked with supporting any government until said time that it has been stabilized and completely functioning with domain over all of its nation that the United States will not just pull out leaving a huge sucking sound of a vacuum which will almost always be filled by other than savory forces. Such would give real meaning to any military promise given by the Congress and President when forces are deployed to a long term mission which will necessarily be passed to the next President and his administration which would be powerless to end the mission unless the military top level commanders determined the mission completed.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Parliament and Assembly of Experts

 

Nobody is asking President Obama or Secretary of State Kerry what the United States is going to do once Russia, China, European Union, United Nation and the rest of the world have all already dropped their sanctions and are ready to deal and Iran rejects the deal, what is next? Surely the Iranians know that it is business as usual as soon as a signing date has been suggested for officially lifting all sanctions making Iran officially open for business. There will not be any manner or way the P5+1, United Nations or other entity will be capable of putting the cork back in the bottle and keeping the Djinni trapped inside; it will have been free and its bargain time opening Iran for business. All Iran need do is coast with all signs being that their Parliament and Assembly of Experts all approving the deal with each level having a smaller and smaller majority where at the second highest level of governance, the Assembly of Experts, a group of Imams and Mullahs who are tasked with the most important of tasks, appointing Supreme Leaders when necessitated and advising the current Supreme Leader. With the public image of Iran all reportedly approving the Nuclear Deal and even the United States straggling in after the political theater has run its course, the only individual who will have held decisive commentary will be the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

 

Whereas the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had commented being not that thrilled with the deal and potentially disapproving the deal, he still will have not given his final word. The morning of the signing is at hand and it is scheduled to be the pinnacle event at the opening of the General Assembly opening ceremonies. This event is so big that it has totally eclipsed the Palestinian annual demand for statehood, even the nuclear deal has its bonuses, and the Presidents and Prime Minister from all six nations which made up the P5+1 negotiations. This includes Prime Minister of Britain David Cameron, Premier of China Li Keqiang, President of France François Hollande, President of Russia Vladimir Putin, Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel, President of the United States Barack Obama, President of Iran Hassan Rouhani are all gathered for the events in New York City at the United Nations building at Turtle Bay and it is just minutes away from the final signing of the deal. The speeches have been given and the leaders all are ready to sign the official treaty. One by one they sign the document each attempting to look and appear regal while signing the treaty placed approximately at hip level while standing before the wide podium holding the treaty. Only two signatures remain, President Barack Obama’s and President Hassan Rouhani’s. President Obama steps up and signs the treaty then makes his way to the speaker’s podium and gives a brief few words about the momentous occasion and the promising future this document promises, unusual for the President, and finishes his speech signaling to his Iranian counterpart and states, ‘With the signature of this treaty Iran will reenter the community of nations with the promise of cooperation, moderation and an outlook which will fill the world with hope, President Rouhani.’

 

President Obama entices the Iranian leader to approach and sign the treaty with a grand sweeping motion extending his arm with an open hand. Iranian President Rouhani steps up next to the President who steps back one step allowing the Iranian leader the microphone. President Rouhani’s speech is even more to the point and brief, ‘I am here today representing the people of Iran and the determined desires of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,’ President Rouhani then steps two steps to his left and deliberately bends and snatches the parchment from the signing podium and tears it in halves, then halves again and again and one last time in halves throwing the sixteen squared tears out onto the floor before a room filled with horrified leaders all at a loss for what just occurred. The tension is felt throughout the room, the fears felt around the world as they watch live on televisions and jaws drop as the Iranian President stalks from the room leaving a silence so deafening it would swallow any sound made anyway. Slowly the room of world leaders, diplomats and select media gather their wits. Cameramen turn their lenses to the anchor reporter assigned to cover this historic event and the anchors are still gathering their wits. Only Jon Stewart reacts spontaneously and immediately covering the event for the Comedy Channel who immediately blurts out, ‘Well, there goes Obama’s legacy, imagine that, his entire legacy lying on the floor in sixteen torn shreds of parchment that he fought Congress over as if it would matter, never mind!’

 

The reality is this is this situation is quite likely if one feels the pulse coming from Iran. There are demonstrations against the deal and many in the Parliament and other positions which merit coverage claiming that the deal is insulting and damages the Iranian image and that going through with the deal will simply humiliate Iran, something almost every Iranian would agree is not something at all desirable, though there might be as many reasons that could be seen as bad as there exist political outlooks, still all want their country seen as strong and reliable. The troubling signs in Iran is the higher one looks for clues across the numerous power structures. The vision as one climbs higher gets increasingly negative towards the Nuclear deal. Many in Iran view any limitations on their nuclear program as an insult and the demands for snap, invasive and unannounced inspections as mistrust and equates their leaders as being untrustworthy and calling everybody in Iran to be deceivers. There exists rejection for the nuclear deal in Iran coming largely from the most hardline politically and many of the university students who are of similar political ire being the leaders in the drive to reject the nuclear treaty. These divisions in Iranian society and the fact that the hardline politician and the most radicalized students are the ones being permitted to give voice to their feelings should be found to be quite revealing and perhaps as a portend of coming events.

 

There is another signal that all may not be going well with the political environment in Iran. Leading in these suspicions that we have been feeling here, goes beyond the rising angst as one climbs the power structures in Iran, is the recent announcement that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is claiming he will run again for the Presidency of Iran, or we wish we could call his political career, Achmed the Dead Terrorist for President. Simply make the required thought changes to the video below replacing Achmed or Achmed the Dead Terrorist with Ahmadinejad or Ahmadinejad for President, you get the idea. Perhaps Ahmadinejad could use some variant of Achmed the Dead Terrorist in a televised campaign ad, but then he might run afoul of the strictness police who would object to such humor.

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, news reports are all focused like a laser on Washington D.C. and the debate as to whether the House or Representatives, a given by all accounts, and the Senate will pass a piece of legislation in an attempt to void the Iran Nuclear Agreement. Many are curious why this ‘agreement’ requires legislation to kill it and not a supermajority support in only the Senate to ratify it as the treaty it actually represents. Apparently the Constitution has been tossed aside for the remainder of President Obama’s time in office and may have been considered void by the Administration for some time now. Nobody is focused much on Iran despite the fact that they too are in the middle of an affirmation which actually depends on a single person and his general health both physical and mental on the morning set for the signing, which we have predicted for the opening ceremonies for the General Assembly and its 70th session which starts on Tuesday, September 15, 2015 and lasts until closing on Tuesday, October 6 2015. Since the United States Senate has until September 17, 2015 to decide on the legislation, assuming they pass the legislation negating the agreement, as expected, and the President in turn vetoes and sends it back, then we can bet that the United States very well may not have ended the discussions and votes before the signing ceremony, thus making two nations unannounced about their signing the Nuclear Agreement. Never mind what the United States Congress decides, President Obama will claim he is simply signing the agreement passed by the United Nations Security Council, which is the exact same agreement, and will be seen to be signing for the United States quite possibly despite the subsequent override of his veto if for no other reason than his presumptuous signing despite Congress still having to vote on their override. Such disrespect by the White House might be exactly what the opposition to the Iran Deal might need to use such insult and disregard to garner the likely five votes they will be short of override when passing the legislation in the Senate. It appears to be assumed that the House of Representatives will have sufficient votes to override any veto leaving only the Senate in question.

 

What will the United States Senate and the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei both do, approve or veto the Iran Nuclear Weapons Agreement? This may be all the proof that President Obama might need to equate those Senators and Representatives who vote to override his veto with the most hardline individual in Iran, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as both decided to reject the treaty for polar opposite reasons, but why would common sense and the motivation get in the way of a good lynching of President Obama’s opponents in the leftist and mainstream, but I repeat myself, media. One would have to wonder at this point, does the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei actually agree with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on the agreement being a poor deal or is it possible for polar opposites to both refuse the same offering but for grandly different reasons?

 

 

Netanyahu and Khamenei face off while both mat end up being the two who opposed the Iran Nuclear Deal so precious and treasured by United States President Obama whose legacy depends on the success. What will follow should Iran refuse to ratify the deal and just walk away and likely soon thereafter quit the NPT, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty?

 

 

What will follow should Iran refuse to ratify the deal and just walk away and likely soon thereafter quit the NPT, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty? Who could have ever believed that the two standout opponents of the Iran deal could be the two men pictured above? The world keeps getting curiouser and curiouser.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

The Best Manner to Destroy the Iran Deal

 

The first and most important item which our friends in the United States, and for those in the Congress who wish to oppose the Iran deal in the most effective manner still available, is they all need to understand that the United Nations Security Council Resolution has forced the hand of the United States as it passed and was enacted by the United Nations which is binding on the United States as well as the rest of the P5+1 nations and also on the European Union and all the member nations of the United Nations. Thanks to President Obama immediate actions the Congress has been basically relegated impotent when it comes to preventing the adoption of the Iran nuclear deal. Additionally, pursuing rejection of the deal against the Presidential veto, which President Barack Hussein Obama had guaranteed, is an act of pure futility and will simply open those supporting such a move to ridicule when they fail to override the Presidential veto. Even should they override the veto, the President still has the United Nations Security Council vote to implement the end to sanctions and thus again much of the media pointing out the futile waste of time and taxpayer monies by the Republicans and those select Democrats who will meet opposition backed by the party as they face what we here at BTC refer to as the Senator Joe Lieberman treatment. President Obama has taken every possible step to minimize, or even eliminate, the avenues available to the Congress or even the American people from denying the stipulation in the Iranian Nuclear Deal to terminate the sanctions placed on Iran by the United States. So, if anything the Congress can do to prevent the elimination of the existing sanctions, what should they be doing concerning the Iran Nuclear Deal and all its ramifications.

 

The one thing that might be to the advantage of the Congress might be instead of passing legislation killing the Iran Nuclear Deal as currently in progress, would be to allow the President to have his celebration but to not feed his triumph by passing legislation just to have President Obama veto it in an in your face mode and very publically using the media to emphasize his victory over those luddites and their feeble attempts to prevent moving forward as the Iranian Nuclear Deal allows. Simply do absolutely nothing. That is correct, nothing. Simply allow the discussion over the Iran Nuclear Deal to die a natural death and give the President a temporary victory and prepare to do something constructive and effective. Wait about six weeks until all the fervor dies down and even the longest attention spans have moved to another subject, perhaps Hilary’s e-mails, or Bernie Sanders poll numbers or whatever any of the almost dozen and a half Republican candidates have done to advance or serve a coup de grace on their campaign and may as well pack it up and better luck next time. That may not even take the full six weeks, but wait six weeks just so most everyone will believe that any new sanctions, even if they resemble the previous sanctions, as if anybody would be so knowledgeable to tell, are something being addressed over some great new information about the Iranians breaking their agreement and thus the move to new sanctions. I am sure if one were to discreetly inquire of the Israelis to provide any new information which could be used to grab the attention of the average American, something not overly technical but still a few sprinkles of scientific terms and a few ominous descriptions should be sufficient to give any hearing exactly the force and urgency required for a quick debate and vote. Applying new sanctions, not reapplying the old sanctions that the President so opposed, but new sanctions brought against new violations by Iran in their nuclear program requiring these new sanctions should be an easier sell and would also circumvent the United Nations Security Council Resolution as that was on the old sanctions and not others going forward. Then lobby and get sufficient Democrats’ votes to add to all Republican Congressional members’ votes allowing those Democrats who are hesitant to vote their conscience once there are sufficient votes assuring the new sanctions pass with a veto proof majority.

 

There should also be efforts to try and get the assurance from members of Congress such that if the President were to oppose the legislation and insult the Congress or otherwise be demeaning in his treatment rather than simply vetoing the legislation quietly and returning it to Congress with his reason for using his veto, then gain their assist in overriding any veto used as a weapon to insult Congress. One could even attempt to gain additional assistance in passing the legislation should the President take overt initiatives to attempt and belittle Congress or threaten any Democrat or others who are supporting new sanctions. If there has to be a fight over sanctions on Iran, make the fight about actual sanctions which are actually able to be applied to the Iranian Nuclear Program. The sanctions could even be targeted should Iran be found to avoiding IAEA inspections or seen to be utilizing every delaying tactic to deny snap inspections or otherwise working to circumvent the terms and stipulations of the Nuclear Deal, something which very likely will be suspected within a few months after the finalization and acceptance of the terms. As the Iranians pose greater and greater resistance against speedy and immediate inspections and refusal to inspection of sites despite sufficient announced inspections schedule then passing new sanctions, should “snap back” sanctions prove impossibly, should be the answer which even President Obama should support, and if not eventually public pressures will either force the President’s hand or that of the necessary members of Congress to override any veto from the White House. Forget kicking a dead horse and instead run down new threats which are sure to come from the Iranian nuclear program in the ensuing months.

 

Further, the Iranian nuclear program is far from the only activity being pursued by the Iranians which could bring undo attention from Congress as they arm many various terrorist or rebellious groups throughout the Middle East. Then there are the constant threats to Israel and the United States, the attempted subversions against Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Lebanon, Kurdish areas, the GCC nations (Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf) and likely far more proliferate meddling once the initial inflowing of funds from the cancellation of the current sanctions and the increased income from new oil and pistachio sales. The reality may be that Iran and new Middle East turmoil may be the surprise influence on the United States elections as Iranian interference could easily begin to take violent and unpredictable turns. Iranian influence arming Hamas could result in Hamas and other supporting terror groups to be instructed to, instead of starting another rocket war with Israel, overthrow the Arab governing bodies in Judea and Samaria. Only then would they be loosed to start a terror war from both the east and the southwest against Israel. Another possibility is that Iran could place sufficient numbers of troops, predominantly from the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) in Syria and central and southern Iraq and after destroying the Islamic State then turn their forces on the Kurds or Jordan. Such an assault in any direction would depend on the United States elections and seeing if the new President will turn away from isolationist governance which would bring to an end any Islamic unfettered conquests. Only time will tell whether or not Islamic expansion will come to a definitive end once President Obama leaves office. Exactly what direction Iran will take in the next year plus until the new President is sworn into office is anyone’s guess. With a large influx of funds and their already having placed orders for the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems, one-hundred-fifty Chinese Chengdu J-10 sophisticated jet fighters with Israeli avionics, two-hundred-fifty Russian highly-advanced Sukhoi-Su-30MK1 fighters as well as one-hundred IL78 MKI aircraft refueling tankers they have already bought themselves a modern Air Force. What other purchases Iran makes in the next few months may give a better lead as to what their immediate plans might be in the long run.

 

 

 

Beyond the Cusp