Beyond the Cusp

March 3, 2015

Trust Betrayed but By Who?

Filed under: Absolutism,Administration,AIPAC,Amalekites,American Israel Public Affairs Committ,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Benyamin Netanyahu,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Blue Water Navy,Breakout Point,Britain,Cabinet,Canada,Catherine Ashton,China,Civilization,Conflict Avoidnce,Congress,Coverup,Crusades,Ditherer in Chief,Domestic NGOs,Elections,EMP Device,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Federica Mogherini,Fordo,Foreign Funding,Foreign Minister Baird,Foreign NGOs,France,Germany,Government,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,History,House of Representatives,IAEA,Internal Pressures,International Atomic Energy Agency,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps,Iraq,IRGC,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jihad,John Kerry,Koran,Leftist Pressures,Mainland China,Military,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Muslim World,Muslims,Netanyahu,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Obama,Osirak Reactor,Parchin,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,Saddam Hussein,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Senate,Terror,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Upgraded Military Capabilities,Uranium Enrichment,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:23 AM
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In the midst of what is being called a betrayal of trust, hurtful acts to friendship and making United States Israeli relations into a partisan issue; there has been a few items likely to have been overlooked. Nobody is paying much attention to one side’s actions to put this whole vitriolic sniping into perspective. The news is full of the accusations of betrayal by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claiming that his speech to Congress will be hurtful to American/Israeli relations. He has been warned not to state any of the terms in the framework of the agreement which President Obama is intending to sign in the near future as that might hurt the chances for the framework to be ratified. Meanwhile, another White House unnamed source gave comment which appears to counter the entire flow of aspersions when they stated that the speech was not going to have any effect nor would it in any way harm the talks the administration was holding as part of the P5+1 negotiations with Iran. If the negotiations will be unaffected then what is the entire brouhaha all about? When you add the statements at AIPAC by Netanyahu where he praised President Obama and stated that this is a disagreement about policy, not about anything personal and that such disagreements have existed before and the relations and personal interactions survived them all and some even became actions which were later appreciated though not at the time of the disagreement. Probably the best example of this was when Israeli Prime Minister Begin ignored President Ronald Regan’s insistence that Israel stand down and not potentially set off explosions across the Middle East which bombing the Osirak nuclear plant in Iraq presumably would cause. Israel still dispatched six fighter-bombers and escorts and destroyed the reactor and somehow there were no actual fireworks and President Bush later thanked the Israelis for not listening as if they had not struck the reactor it was very possible that Iraq would have had nuclear weapons making any actions against Saddam Hussein next to impossible. Even President Obama appeared to be talking back the acrimony stating that where there may be “substantial disagreement” over how to achieve the shared goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, such disagreement would not be “permanently destructive” to American/Israeli relations. The difficulty is the mixed message as the President and Secretary of State Kerry also have sharply pointed to previous warnings from Prime Minister Netanyahu such as the claims that the interim agreement gave Iran too much leeway and was not providing sufficient enforcement while sanctions were being relaxed and this has not led to any disasters.

 

All of these accusations will only be validated or invalidated by the results down the road. There has been one point of contention which is undisputable, Prime Minister Netanyahu has pointedly made the case that Iran must never be permitted to have nuclear weapons capabilities while President Obama’s entire case is that by postponing the attaining of nuclear weapons by Iran, they will be put off by a decade or possibly even fifteen years and that the entire attitude of the Iranian government will likely change rather noticeable and for the better in the ensuing years and especially if the United States is able to put the past behind and initiate relations with Iran which can only help to alleviate any difficulties the West has with Iran. This is very likely minimizing the differences as Prime Minister Netanyahu and other Israelis have noted that the terms of the framework will allow Iran to reach almost breakout conditions though not verifiably have the capability to actually produce nuclear weapons and by allowing such is tantamount to risking Iran clandestinely producing nuclear weapons in the dark and outside of the ability of the IAEA inspectors to monitor. This was made all the more obvious recently with two reports. The first report came from the lead inspector of the IAEA who pointed out that Iran was not forthcoming with satisfactory answers to concerns placed before them for explanations which might allay fears that Iran was well on their way to militarizing their nuclear program. The second came from the same dissident group which had initially made the extent and scope of the Iranian nuclear activities known to the Western nations who have come forth stating that an additional nuclear plant for the processing of uranium had been established and was ready to be activated. The processing plant was presumably close to Tehran sitting underneath existing structures which had also served to shelter their activities from satellites and other detection abilities including especially drones. The news of such a facility makes fears that Iran intends to produce nuclear weapons despite any agreement far more probable should this reported plant be actualized and hopefully be placed under IAEA inspections, something unlikely when one also finds that the IAEA requests to inspect the Parchin Military Base where suspected weaponizing tests and manufacture of the detonators for a nuclear weapons were carried out. Recent reports also inform that not only had the buildings reputedly used for such experimentation and perfection of their triggering detonators been razed and the ground turned up and replaced with earth from another location, but now new buildings are being constructed over the site making inspections next to impossible. Such obstructionism does not bode well for Iranian compliance with the terms of any agreement.

 

Additional threats and demands have been levied and amongst them the demand that the Israelis not state any of the terms they suspect are a part of the framework largely because the administration has gone to such extremes to avoid allowing the Congress to vote on any agreement as such would require allowing the terms to be known. This request was made even before the elections which placed the Senate under a Republican majority. It has been the secrecy under which the administration has operated these negotiations which has initiated the suspicions which were apparently substantiated by the information received by the Israelis before they were locked out of the loop on any further updates by the United States. This will likely mean that Israel will now be just as ill-informed as the other Western members of the negotiations team as much of the framework has appeared to have been crafted in one-on-one meetings between Secretary Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. We will see today what effects the admonishments from the administration will have had on the address before Congress by Prime Minister Netanyahu as he gave little indications at his AIPAC speech as to what today’s speech will contain. Largely the Prime Minister’s speech was to show the appreciation that his administration and all Israelis have with their brothers and sisters living in the United States, the second most Jewish population state. Initiating his speech the Prime Minister gave thanks to Milos Zeman, president of the Czech Republic, for his support of Israel and his nation’s historical support of the Jewish state. Likewise he thanked Canadian officials, including outgoing Foreign Minister John Baird, for being “champions of Israel.” He gave a warm greeting to the packed audience greeting them with, “My friends I bring greetings to you from Jerusalem, our eternal undivided capital!” He also quipped receiving thunderous applause with, “I also bring to you news that you may not have heard. You see I’ll be speaking in Congress tomorrow.” Beyond the personal thank you statements and introductory ice breakers to put everyone at ease, Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke of the ties between the United States and Israel like that of a family that despite any disagreements remain closely related and such disputes do not make the family dysfunctional. Netanyahu stated, “You’re here to tell the world that reports of the demise of the Israeli and American ties are not only premature, they’re just wrong. You’re here to tell the world that our alliance is stronger than ever. And because of you… it’s going to get even stronger in the coming years.” He also stressed, “My speech is not meant to show any disrespect for President Obama or for the office that he holds, I have great respect for both.” Prime Minister spoke of the long period where Jews were as in the wilderness with no real home and subjected to the whims and provocations of those under whom they lived often facing terrible degradations and compared that suffering with the reality that now we once again have our homelands where we can finally fight for our rights and respect and rule ourselves. The Prime Minister initiated this telling that, “For 2,000 years my people, the Jewish people, were stateless, voiceless… we suffered relentless persecution and horrific attacks.” And then concluded stating, “Well, no more! The days when the Jewish people are passive in the face of threats to annihilate us, those days are over!” He also pointed out that the current disagreement with the United States is not over the goal we both desire but over the best method for achieving said goal. He pointed to our shared values of “liberty, equality, justice, tolerance, compassion.” You can hear the speech and judge his language and emotions yourself as his speech is embedded below.

 

 

 

We covered the framework’s rough draft a few days ago in the article “P5+1 and Iran Six Month Working Nuclear Agreement” which included the CNN released draft. We will not bore everyone repeating that article which had a few of our observations and cautionary quote made us the most ill at ease as we thought it was for too restrictive and presumptuous to assume to speak for the Congress while refusing to allow their input and advice. Today’s speech by the Israeli Prime Minister will be reviewed by many journalists and editorialists many of whom will have their best, sharpest and longest knives bared to stab and cut off the juiciest morsels they believe they can use to smear and defame the Prime Minister while others will have their most favorable glasses on and perfumed stationary on which to reveal their admirations and near love affair with Netanyahu, and any truth likely lies in the middle. Well, we will see what we will see and perhaps hear something unexpected but whatever is to come, by tomorrow all will be done except the media shouting, and who knows how long that may last and who from the political side will jump in and mix things up further. No matter what is said to Congress, the rest of the world continues to spiral out of control with the Libya ISIS terrorists still threatening to attack Italy and sac Rome, ISIS taking hostages with which to incite more hatred with their horrific offerings, Iran now being given the lead in the bombing war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, Russia still eyeing the entirety of the coast of the Ukraine and drooling over the other former Soviet bloc nations and finally there is China manufacturing a blue water navy complete with continental missile carrying boomer submarines and aircraft carriers in their attempt to supplant the United States as the hegemonic power in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait or Formosa Strait, the Tsu Shima Strait, the Korea Strait and lastly adding the Pacific Ocean to their ownership of both ends of the Panama Canal. The world just keeps on getting more interesting and the nations within better and more dangerously armed and the little people, you know, you and us are simply not any part of the equations beyond statistical estimations on how many of us and in which regions we will be sacrificed in the next attempt to do what has been attempted throughout history, conquer the known world which finally actually means the whole world. Isn’t that just wonderful?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 26, 2013

Iran Deal Additional Thoughts and Complete Text

You can almost always tell when something is truly a horrendous decision, deal, piece of legislation or virtually anything imaginable by the fact that those who openly oppose or denounce the item come from many and varied source and places. The deal made between the P5+1 and Iran largely at the insistence and through the efforts of United States President Obama and the Iranian leadership has been denounced or condemned by Saudi Arabia’s Royal Family and the Israeli Prime Minister and numerous others both from the Knesset and those holding Ministerial Positions including those in the Prime Minister’s Security Council which are two nations who previously have been at odds and there is no love lost between them; Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia and Democrat Senator Bernie Sanders who are a pair who normally align at near opposite ends of the political spectrum in the United States; and there likely exist numerous other pairings that would further evidence the complete disaster this agreement is. What is even more damning is the manner by which President Obama reached this deal with the Iranians. President Obama assigned the responsibility for setting the agenda and reaching an agreement with the Iranians through secretive meetings which were conducted away from the vision and without the knowledge of the other members of the P5+1, or at least behind the backs of the French and British who were completely blindsided when the details of that agreement became known last week, to Valerie Jarrett. Ms. Jarrett was Iranian born and has suggested that the United States use the United States Military to force the Israeli government release all of the disputed lands for the formation of a Palestinian state and continue to occupy Israel to assure that they take no steps against the Palestinians and prevent the Israelis from actively fighting terrorism. Her record illuminates her preference for the Muslim side of most areas of contention especially against Jews. Of all the members of the Administration, Valerie Jarrett is probably the last person I can think of to give the responsibility for making an agreement with the Iranians considering her background. One can only guess how horrendous the agreement which initially resulted from her deliberations and was presented last week such that the British and the French considered it necessary to call the leaderships of Israel and Saudi Arabia and inform them of the betrayal which President Obama and Valerie Jarrett were attempting to commit on these former allies, or at least very strained and distressed allies and then to have the French take the unprecedented step of vetoing an agreement presented by the President of the United States, the leader of what is likely one of the most steadfast allies of the French through both the good and bad times.

 

Sanctions are to be relaxed or ended in exchange for Iranian promises, what many fear are really empty promises not offered with earnest intent or content, to allow IAEA monitoring of their nuclear program, a guarantee they have made and broken every single time they have made said assurance either by outright expulsion of the IAEA inspectors or simply causing delays preventing timely surprise inspections providing Iranian personnel to clean or otherwise make sites presentable and ready for such inspections thus denying effective over-watch ability. The sanctioning bodies and nations, which include the European Union, United Nations and numerous individual countries including but not limited to all of the P5+1 members and Canada, are to relax sanctions including pausing efforts to further reduce Iran’s crude oil sales, enabling Iran’s current customers to purchase their current average amounts of crude oil. Enable the repatriation of an agreed amount of revenue held abroad rumored to total at least four billion dollars. For such oil sales, suspend the European Union and United States sanctions on associated insurance and transportation services. The United States and European Union would further suspend sanctions on Iran’s petrochemical exports, as well as sanctions on associated services, gold and precious metals, as well as sanctions on associated services, United States sanctions on Iran’s auto industry, as well as sanctions on associated services. Furthermore, there will be provided services which were nonexistent before the sanctions were originally enacted thus now allowing for the license, supply and installation in Iran of spare parts for safety of flight for Iranian civil aviation and associated services and the license safety related inspections and repairs in Iran as well as associated services. This entire list of goodies provided because the Iranians elected a new hardline President named Rouhani who was formerly the Iranian nuclear lead negotiator who stalled and glad-handed the West proving to be a master of the smiling and jovial snake in the grass but is supposedly a newly transformed new man to be trusted. Why am I so reminded of an old phrase about tigers and something about their stripes being of a permanent nature? The Obama Administration’s argument is that this was the best deal possible and that there was no other route that might prevent Iran from nuclear weapons short of a war. This is exactly the same argument used by President Jimmy Carter when his only attempt to rescue the hostages failed and he was faced with a hostile and determined Iran. The falsehood of President Carter’s argument was exposed when Iran released the hostages merely at the proposition that newly elected President Ronald Reagan would raise the price the Iranians would have to pay for holding Americans hostage. The simple idea that a new, no-nonsense approach was in the offerings was sufficient to push the Iranians to capitulate and a similar approach and threat would have again forced the Iranians to change their behavior and likely ended their drive for nuclear weapons, period. That was the alternative not tried and denied of existing by the entirety of the Obama Administration and the big lie at the center of the entire demand that surrender is the only option.

 

Perhaps I have become suspicious and prone to taking a negative first look at almost anything done by governments the vast majority of the time. Perhaps I should take the time to report a positive step which I find in the news at least once in a while. The problem with such is that I will most likely find things as positive will anger many others but then I already appear to have such an effect with the things I dislike. The one piece of news which was at least intriguing and should prove quite interesting to watch the ramifications going forward was the African nation of Angola has reportedly become the first country to ban Islam. Not only have they banned Islam but the ban includes orders to demolish mosques in the country. The United States State Department lists Angola’s population as 16 million as being predominantly Christian, with only 80,000-90,000 Muslims, the majority of whom are migrants from West Africa and families of Lebanese origin. Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos said Sunday “this is the final end of Islamic influence in our country.” Angolan Minister of Culture, Rosa Cruz e Silva said “the process of legalization of Islam has not been approved by the Ministry of Justice and Human rights, their mosques would be closed until further notice.” Silva further claimed the ban was necessary since Islam is “contradictory to the customs of Angola culture.” Silva also commented on other non-legalized religions on the list “published by the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights in the Angolan newspaper ‘Jornal de Angola’ are prohibited to conduct worship, so they should keep their doors closed.” On a more tolerant and open side, the Minister of Culture added that there is a legalization process through which over a thousand religious sects are currently applying. This should prove to be a turning point, just what will be turned up by this is left to the future to elucidate as I have no idea how this will play out in the near future or over the long term either. I guess we will have to watch and take note for future reference and see if others also follow Angola with this radical and unprecedented move, at least unprecedented in recent history outside of places like Saudi Arabia where Islam is the sole permitted religion and being Jewish or in possession of any holy book other than the Koran and the Hadiths can be punishable by death and where the ruling Royals actually requested that the United States at least not allow any Jewish soldiers to be included in the forces sent to combat against Saddam Hussein and both prevent him from moving on Saudi Arabia and evict his forces out of Kuwait in Gulf War I. Maybe Angola is not so unprecedented as I first thought, appears Saudi Arabia beat them at this ban religions practice and to a far greater extent.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Complete Text of the P5+1 Deal with Iran Concerning Their Nuclear Program

Geneva, 24 November 2013

Joint Plan of Action

Preamble:

The goal for these negotiations is to reach a mutually-agreed long-term comprehensive solution that would ensure Iran’s nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful. Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek or develop any nuclear weapons. This comprehensive solution would build on these initial measures and result in a final step for a period to be agreed upon and the resolution of concerns. This comprehensive solution would enable Iran to fully enjoy its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the relevant articles of the NPT in conformity with its obligations therein. This comprehensive solution would involve a mutually defined enrichment program with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the peaceful nature of the program. This comprehensive solution would constitute an integrated whole where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. This comprehensive solution would involve a reciprocal, step-by-step process, and would produce the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions, as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program.

There would be additional steps in between the initial measures and the final step, including, among other things, addressing the UN Security Council resolutions, with a view toward bringing to a satisfactory conclusion the UN Security Council’s consideration of this matter. The E3+3 and Iran will be responsible for conclusion and implementation of mutual near-term measures and the comprehensive solution in good faith. A Joint Commission of E3/EU+3 and Iran will be established to monitor the implementation of the near-term measures and address issues that may arise, with the IAEA responsible for verification of nuclear-related measures. The Joint Commission will work with the IAEA to facilitate resolution of past and present issues of concern.

 

Elements of a first step:

The first step would be time-bound, with a duration of 6 months, and renewable by mutual consent, during which all parties will work to maintain a constructive atmosphere for negotiations in good faith.

Iran would undertake the following voluntary measures:

From the existing uranium enriched to 20%, retain half as working stock of 20% oxide for fabrication of fuel for the TRR. Dilute the remaining 20% UF6 to no more than 5%. No reconversion line.

Iran announces that it will not enrich uranium over 5% for the duration of the 6 months.

Iran announces that it will not make any further advances of its activities at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant1, Fordow2, or the Arak reactor3, designated by the IAEA as IR-40.

Beginning when the line for conversion of UF6 enriched up to 5% to UO2 is ready, Iran has decided to convert to oxide UF6 newly enriched up to 5% during the 6 month period, as provided in the operational schedule of the conversion plant declared to the IAEA.

No new locations for the enrichment.

Iran will continue its safeguarded R&D practices, including its current enrichment R&D practices, which are not designed for accumulation of the enriched uranium.

No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.

 

Enhanced monitoring:

 

Provision of specified information to the IAEA, including information on Iran’s plans for nuclear facilities, a description of each building on each nuclear site, a description of the scale of operations for each location engaged in specified nuclear activities, information on uranium mines and mills, and information on source material. This information would be provided within three months of the adoption of these measures.

Submission of an updated DIQ for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40, to the IAEA.

Steps to agree with the IAEA on conclusion of the Safeguards Approach for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40.

Daily IAEA inspector access when inspectors are not present for the purpose of Design Information Verification, Interim Inventory Verification, Physical Inventory Verification, and unannounced inspections, for the purpose of access to offline surveillance records, at Fordow and Natanz.

 

IAEA inspector managed access to:

– centrifuge assembly workshops4;

– centrifuge rotor production workshops and storage facilities; and,

– Uranium mines and mills.

 

In return, the E3/EU+3 would undertake the following voluntary measures:

Pause efforts to further reduce Iran’s crude oil sales, enabling Iran’s current customers to purchase their current average amounts of crude oil. Enable the repatriation of an agreed amount of revenue held abroad. For such oil sales, suspend the EU and U.S. sanctions on associated insurance and transportation services.

 

Suspend U.S. and EU sanctions on:

Iran’s petrochemical exports, as well as sanctions on associated services.5

Gold and precious metals, as well as sanctions on associated services.

Suspend U.S. sanctions on Iran’s auto industry, as well as sanctions on associated services.

License the supply and installation in Iran of spare parts for safety of flight for Iranian civil aviation and associated services. License safety related inspections and repairs in Iran as well as associated services.6

No new nuclear-related UN Security Council sanctions.

No new EU nuclear-related sanctions.

The U.S. Administration, acting consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Congress, will refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.

Establish a financial channel to facilitate humanitarian trade for Iran’s domestic needs using Iranian oil revenues held abroad. Humanitarian trade would be defined as transactions involving food and agricultural products, medicine, medical devices, and medical expenses incurred abroad. This channel would involve specified foreign banks and non-designated Iranian banks to be defined when establishing the channel.

 

This channel could also enable:

transactions required to pay Iran’s UN obligations; and,

direct tuition payments to universities and colleges for Iranian students studying abroad, up to an agreed amount for the six month period.

Increase the EU authorization thresholds for transactions for non-sanctioned trade to an agreed amount.

 

Elements of the final step of a comprehensive solution*

 The final step of a comprehensive solution, which the parties aim to conclude negotiating and commence implementing no more than one year after the adoption of this document, would:

Have a specified long-term duration to be agreed upon.

Reflect the rights and obligations of parties to the NPT and IAEA Safeguards Agreements.

Comprehensively lift UN Security Council, multilateral and national nuclear-related sanctions, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy, on a schedule to be agreed upon.

Involve a mutually defined enrichment program with mutually agreed parameters consistent with practical needs, with agreed limits on scope and level of enrichment activities, capacity, where it is carried out, and stocks of enriched uranium, for a period to be agreed upon.

Fully resolve concerns related to the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40. No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.

Fully implement the agreed transparency measures and enhanced monitoring. Ratify and implement the Additional Protocol, consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Majlis (Iranian parliament).

Include international civil nuclear cooperation, including among others, on acquiring modern light water power and research reactors and associated equipment, and the supply of modern nuclear fuel as well as agreed R&D practices.

Following successful implementation of the final step of the comprehensive solution for its full duration, the Iranian nuclear program will be treated in the same manner as that of any non-nuclear weapon state party to the NPT.

* With respect to the final step and any steps in between, the standard principle that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” applies.

 

Footnotes:

Namely, during the 6 months, Iran will not feed UF6 into the centrifuges installed but not enriching uranium. Not install additional centrifuges. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.

At Fordow, no further enrichment over 5% at 4 cascades now enriching uranium, and not increase enrichment capacity. Not feed UF6 into the other 12 cascades, which would remain in a non-operative state. No interconnections between cascades. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.

Iran announces on concerns related to the construction of the reactor at Arak that for 6 months it will not commission the reactor or transfer fuel or heavy water to the reactor site and will not test additional fuel or produce more fuel for the reactor or install remaining components.

Consistent with its plans, Iran’s centrifuge production during the 6 months will be dedicated to replace damaged machines. “Sanctions on associated services” means any service, such as insurance, transportation, or financial, subject to the underlying U.S. or EU sanctions applicable, insofar as each service is related to the underlying sanction and required to facilitate the desired transactions. These services could involve any non-designated Iranian entities.

Sanctions relief could involve any non-designated Iranian airlines as well as Iran Air.

 

November 9, 2013

Obama Aiming to Emulate Neville Chamberlin

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,1967 Borders,1967 War,Absolutism,Act of War,Administration,Advanced Weapions Systems,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Zionist,Appeasement,Appointment,Armed Services,Borders,Breakout Point,Catherine Ashton,Chapter Seven Security Council Resolution,Civilization,Consequences,Divided Jerusalem,Domestic NGOs,EMP Device,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Forced Solution,Foreign Minister,Foreign NGOs,Gaza,Government,Green Line,History,IAEA,Inspections,International Atomic Energy Agency,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Islam,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Jerusalem,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Home,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,John Kerry,Jordan River,Jordan Valley,Judea,Judean Hills,Mahmoud Abbas,Military Option,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Munich Accord of 1938,Muslim World,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Partition Plan,Peace Process,Permanenet Members,Politics,President Obama,Promised Land,Recognize Israel,Refugees,Russian Pressure,Samaria,Secretary of State,Security Council,Taqiyya,Terror,Threat of War,Threat of War,Troop Withdrawal,United Nations,United States,Uranium Enrichment,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,World War II,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 5:09 AM
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One can almost envision Secretary of State getting off the plane and meeting President Obama at the microphones before the gathered press. As the two turn to face the awaiting press they both grasp a sheet of paper and holding it up between them we hear President Obama make his heavily anticipated announcement, ‘We have here a paper signed by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, European Union Foreign Policy Chief the Lady Catherine Ashton, and our own Secretary of State John Kerry which sets the agreed parameters under which Iran will continue their limited peaceful nuclear program under the watchful eyes of the United Nations IAEA inspectors allowing for the world to breathe easier as the real possibility of a confrontation has now been avoided. We will have Peace in Our Time!’ We can expect within the next few days for there to be White House spokesman James Carney at the daily press briefing announcing that President Obama has spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the two have agreed on provisions and mutual assurances which will prevent any possibility for any unilateral attack by Israeli forces on the Iranian nuclear sites and other tactical targets. There might even be a major policy prime time speech where President Obama flanked by Secretary of State Kerry on one side and European Union Foreign Policy Chief Lady Ashton on the other as the President announces how through prolonged and determined deliberations, years of increasing stiff and effective sanctions and the pressing of will that the world can now rest assured that the Iranians are not pursuing nuclear weapons and mechanisms have been put in place for close, effective and extensive monitoring of the Iranian nuclear sites including snap inspection which can be initiated at any time after forty-eight hours’ notice has been presented to the Iranian government. The President will not be anywhere as efficient in his use of words and this announcement might easily take well over an hour before he completes his ramblings.

The result is almost in the bag as President Obama made it known that he feels that any agreement is preferable to the possibility of a confrontation, even an interim agreement which follows almost to the letter the proposed deal presented by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif at the start of this round of talks. The predilection towards finding a way, any way, to avoid a confrontation, even to the point of ignoring the obvious evidence that the Iranian nuclear program could only be for the production of weapons, has been growing and become so overriding that the feeling that we are witnessing a modern day version of the Munich Accords of 1938 that we are inclined to refer to any agreement attained as the Geneva Accords of 2013 so as to format the name in a similar vein to those historic and infamous accords signed on September 30, 1938, by German Chancellor Adolf Hitler, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, Italian Prime Minister Benito Mussolini and French Prime Minister Édouard Daladier. With the present Palestinian-Israeli negotiations currently also occurring with a definite possibility that should no agreement be reached, which is considered the most likely result that these talks will end just as all previous talks have with the Palestinian representatives stalking out of the negotiations refusing to return until the Israelis decide to be reasonable and meet the conditions demanded by the Palestinians, that President Obama will use his position or the mechanisms of a Chapter Seven Resolution from the United Nations Security Council to force a settlement of his design upon both parties. Such a settlement could easily entail demands for Israel to vacate all but three or four percent of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) as well as all of Jerusalem which was occupied by Jordan before the Six Day War in 1967 along with an equal portion of lands within the Green Line to compensate the Palestinians for the parts of Judea and Samaria retained by Israel. Such a forced agreement would require Israel to dispossess close to three-quarters of a million Jews from their homes, synagogues, and businesses as well as the removal and disassembly of numerous IDF checkpoints, bases and other facilities. Another integral piece of such an agreement might be requiring Israel to provide the Palestinians with a passageway between Gaza and the West Bank where the Palestinians would be provided with free passage without any checkpoints or inspections which would present severe security concerns for the Israelis. The final demand which might make any such forced resolution to result in a conflict would be the forcing upon Israel the absorption of any large number of Palestinian so-called refugees where the numbers could go anywhere from some hundreds up to as many as up to six-million. Any larger end numbers would present Israel with an identity crisis as such a move would grant the Palestinians and the Israeli Arabs a combined majority allowing for them to vote Israel’s Jewish identity into the dustbin of history. Israel could not accept nor permit such an event from being implemented even if it required declaring a state of war against the United States. If you are going to die it is best to die standing rather than on one’s knees.

The earliest signals that President Obama was not ever going to take any actual measures to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons status was in the manner that he allowed a power vacuum in Iraq thus permitting Iran to gain a predominant influence followed by his gifting of Afghanistan in negotiations to the Taliban who eventually refused to even bother meeting with the United States as they realized by doing nothing they would soon gain the tactical advantage permitting their reentry into a significant if not controlling position in Afghanistan which would supplement their control in the eastern tribal lands in Pakistan. Then there has been a slowly burning animosity shown to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as well as other Israeli officials and statements from figures close to the White House which laid much of the responsibility for any lack of progress towards a settlement with the Palestinians at the feet of Israel along with the making of Executive Privilege to override Congressional bans on further monetary aid to the Palestinian Authority after revelations of payments going to Hamas from United States and European funding. The final two instances that displayed the animosity President Obama has for Israel and his lack of resolve to take actions which might be advantageous for Israel were the demand forcing Prime Minister Netanyahu to apologize to Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan knowing full well that the Turkish leadership would refuse to accept any apology and would utilize it to embarrass Israel and promote their right to leadership because of that apology and the complete bungling and hesitant inaction at the use of chemical weapons in Syria despite President Obama’s strong language of a Red Line that would necessarily change his calculus concerning the civil war in Syria. This led to President Obama being emasculated by Russian President Putin who rode in and saved the day in grand fashion while President Obama made conciliatory statements from the background. All of this is to posit the possibility that at the end of the nine months negotiations or whenever the Palestinians depart the negotiations, whichever comes first, that President Obama is very likely to gift much of the lands of Judea and Samaria to the Palestinians in a similar vein as British Prime Minister Chamberlin gifted the Sudeten Lands of Czechoslovakia to the Nazis at Munich. Israel, like Czechoslovakia, cannot allow the lands of Judea and Samaria, especially the Jordan River Valley and eastern Jerusalem to fall into Palestinian hands without sacrificing all of Jerusalem which is within rifle range from eastern Jerusalem and placing themselves in a precarious position exactly the same as before the Six Day War of 1967. Should Israel be forced basically back to the Green Line and the Palestinians not required to remain a nonmilitary state depending of the Israeli Defense Force to provide security against any foreign attack if any such even presents itself, an unlikely scenario as the Palestinians state would be bordered by Israel and Jordan on the eastern edge of Judea and Samaria and Egypt on the southern edge of Gaza, both of which should be safe and secure borders for them. The parallels to recorded history are too frightening and almost exact to not cause a sane person to worry that we are about to live through a replay of the fateful years at the end of the 1930s which ended with a horrid conflagration.

Beyond the Cusp

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