Beyond the Cusp

February 18, 2016

Republicans Need a Real, Honest and True Blue Candidate

 

The Republican establishment is obviously and understandably troubled about the primaries thus far and the results. There is the obvious problem when Donald Trump, not even a true moderate conservative, takes about the thirty to thirty-five percent or potentially more in the primaries thus far. Then there is Ted Cruz who grabbed second at the Iowa Caucus and will present a problem in many southern and mid-western states even into western states and past the Rocky Mountains. Ted Cruz is also not of their favorite centrist mediocracy. That leaves them bouncing around with their earliest choice of Jeb Bush failing in the early primaries needing to have a large showing in the upcoming South Carolina primary or his candidacy will be in dire straits. The next two hopes for the party elite are John Kasich and Marco Rubio and one had best excite the people sufficiently to become the sole opponent who can take on Trump and press the rest into the background if not out of the race. Ben Carson was a dream which honestly had next to no chance as we discovered with my House of Representatives campaign, the parties make sure that no outsider can break into the top tier as they keep the media concentrating where they desire and never ever will light fall on those not already in the game or wealthy enough to demand a place as that is the sorry case of politics the world over.

 

Now, making such even more obvious is that only those of the game or of great wealth may play in the political arena thus making all others unacceptable. Carly Fiorina has more management experience than all the candidates with the exception of “The Donald” and did something almost unheard of; she mastered the first debate winning herself a place in the top tier for debate number two. They likely believed that in with tougher competition she would wilt and they would be done with her challenge of the real politicians and actual worthies of high office. Carly Fiorina did not wilt but rather rose to the occasion in the second debate and received some recognition. The opening came in the third debate where her one slightest miscue and the combined accusations repeated and repeated and then came the silence, the dreaded silence from which her candidacy could never return, she was locked out. Now the Republicans are reaping what they sewed. They are stuck with a choice of political mediocracy versus, one fanatical religious moralist and one wealthy, boorish, unhinged faux-conservative and an unexcited base. Donald Trump has cornered approximately one third of the electorate with a fair number being new voters who would simply lose interest as soon as Trump leaves the candidate field. Ted Cruz has another third in the most religious conservatives who also might remain at home come the election if their demanding concerns are not met. The remaining third divided amongst the “mainstream candidates” will only matter if they are whittled down to a single challenger. As long as there is no singular candidate the division changing from one primary to the next leaves the Republican elite in an uncomfortable quandary about whom to promote above the others. That is their problem going forward with their hopes pinned on somebody breaking that stalemate and doing so as soon as possible.

 

 

Republican Candidates into South Carolina

Republican Candidates into South Carolina

 

 

There is a malady, a malaise if you will, and there are dark forces not the least of which is Iran once again and American hostages and the propaganda showing the United States as bent and broken by the masters of Iran. These Iranian leaders now believe their time to rule all has come. The United States has been humbled before the world once again just as they were in 1979 as United States President Jimmy Carter was stymied and unable to liberate the fifty-two hostages (the names of the hostages can be read here) of the original sixty-six who were captured United States Embassy in Tehran on Nov. 4, 1979, and including three who were at the Iranian Foreign Ministry, the last of which were finally released on Jan. 20, 1981 as the inauguration of Ronald Reagan was scheduled for later that day. At least the most recent incident with the capture of ten Navy seamen and woman did not devolve into an extended hostage crisis leading to months of captivity as the Iranians await the election before deciding whether to continue the crisis or not as in 1979-81 ordeal. Instead the Iranians exploited their time while holding the American Naval service personnel starting with the released pictures and videos of the Americans with their shoes removed, kneeling and hands raised behind their heads with armed Iranian IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) intimidating and despairing them including one video of one sailor in tears. It was later learned that the Iranians had paraded their Hostage Navy personnel through the streets further humiliating them and making a spectacle of their detainment. We could label this President Obama’s hostage crisis which he resolved much faster than had President Carter, but at what price?

 

The Republican Party elite may be consoling themselves feeling confident whichever candidate comes out the far end of the primary election will very likely be capable of defeating Hillary Clinton as they perceive her to be an easy candidate to defeat and the chosen one of the Democrat Party. They could be wrong on both counts. First off, if his early success in the Democrat primaries is any indication, Bernie Sanders could easily become the Democrat Presidential Candidate as he has drawn the youth vote out in massive numbers, much the same as elected Barack Hussein Obama twice. I am still having difficulty wrapping my arms around twice as if they did not learn. But then again the heirs of Obama’s policies will be out voting for his philosophical cousin, Bernie Sanders, making it appear to be a lack of worldly experience. So, a Bernie Sanders candidate facing the Republican with the same devotion of those too young to be trusted with the office voting for him in droves along with the normative thirty-to-forty percent Democrat voters makes for an impressive obstacle. Truthfully, Hillary (at this point, what difference does it make) Clinton would be a far easier candidate against which the base would come out and vote if for no other reason other than to keep her: abortion at any date even to include ten minutes after giving birth to as much as three weeks afterwards, guns only for the privileged and government, public schools including colleges for all except the elite, and taxes on all but the very poor but never to raise and probably lower capital gains taxes so the rich can remain untouched, kept out of ever walking in the White House other than a guided tour, and strictly checked for stealing more silverware, with the rest of the unwashed. The republicans have to face reality that should anybody other than Trump get the nomination two-thirds of his supporters will remain home disgusted with the process and if Ted Cruz does not get the nomination almost all of his supporters will remain home, and that holds true even for Marco Rubio. If you need proof of what we claim simply walk amongst the denizens of Oklahoma, the second most conservative state and ask the people in Tulsa or Oklahoma City to name the Republicans vying for their support and should it be Trump or Cruz then ask who it is they desire to win and finally ask them which one of Kasich, Rubio or Bush they might support and you will receive your answer.

 

So, the dilemma simply put. The Trump base will not support any other of those still considered viable and the Cruz base likewise will not support any others and what you have is a wholesale defeat against Clinton who Democrats will vote for even if they must close their eyes and hold their noses making sure not to breath for thirty seconds before pulling that lever and a full minute after. There will be special schools in freediving booked by Democrats simply to master holding their breath. So, your base and best candidates are poison to one third of your base and without them we get four and likely eight years of Clinton or worse, six years and a month of Bernie Sanders as he serves a term and a half after reelection, Socialist with that capital ‘S’ with Hillary as his Vice President and then just the slimmest margin less than a decade of Hillary as President of what is left of the United States. What is it that the Republican base is really seeking? Here is your question Republican elites, what will be the force which can galvanize the party and to be fully and completely supportive and actively campaigning for the candidate and include those Trump supporters as well as the Cruz supporter even if neither end up their choice for Vice President and who if even they pick Chris Christie as their running mate they lose not a single vote or supporter? So, what would such a candidate look like and what qualities should he possess?

 

Let us build that perfect candidate. First and foremost he has to have a background of some form of personal motivation and business savvy unto which Trump would bow with respect. He would need to be a true through and through conservative whose sweat of their brow would dissolve Roe vs Wade and to whom Cruz would move aside graciously. He would need to be one who in that pivotal moment where he cast all he had ever dreamed of aside for the merit of what Hashem would hold as noble came almost naturally. This person would only not be faulted if he was incapable of walking on water yet many would believe he not only could but has whenever he chose. A military man (and it could also be a woman), as all recognize the need for such as is necessary in these times of great challenge and unbelievable provocations could stand easily in the breach. A candidate whose mere presence on the stage would coerce any moderator to act deferentially and silence even the shrew that is Hillary and make Bernie Sanders be as a cartoonish character on the stage of debate. What it would take is a candidate with an impeccable character, a near perfect past, the respect of people across the political spectrum and an unparalleled grasp of the current impasse which threatens our world and the ability to explain it such that even the slowest of wits could grasp. We have mentioned our choice which is Lieutenant Colonel Allen West. Unfortunately for the Republican Party their elites hate this man so much that they agreed when reapportionment meant Florida lost one Congressional district to divide his district such that it would lose in both districts to Democrats so as to be rid of him and turned down the other plan which still cost them a seat to the Democrats but preferred to retain a solid lead in a seat where the current candidate was retiring but also did not include Allen West’s neighborhood making him ineligible. He ran in the contest in which he resided and necessarily lost just as the elites desired. Morality is a thing not only not revered but accursed to politics. Should a man have honor he will not be controllable and will do as he sees as honorable and correct while the rest will follow directions. Allen west will not follow direction as his life story has proven and his early retirement from the military, though disgraceful for the military, bears out. They claim he broke their rules but he claimed guilt as he did what he did to protect the lives of the men under his charge. Following the ROE (rules of engagement) and ROI (rules of interrogations), he put the lives of his men before his career which was pitch perfect and proper to that one fateful day when he made the career ending choice (read about it here). We are open to others and may one be found acceptable to the Republicans should they reach a brokered convention, something none of the political class desire as it leads to unpredictable results.

 

 

Men of Great Stature Reagan, Eisenhower, Allen West

 

 

Meanwhile, the Republican Party is adrift with not only no one who knows the path to relevance nor anyone who will unite the many strands of its base but only with candidates who will, out of their actions past and present, alienate one third of their base of support. We have covered this numerous times but why not; once more into the breach we go. Contrary to that which Republican Party elite tell us time and time again, we cannot win unless we get the vote of the enormous middle. The Democrats talk this line up but deny it by the candidates they present which do not chase the middle vote and only ply their wares to grasp their base, as fractured as it may be. As long as a Democrat candidate is accepted by three or so of the many disparate groups, the rest will fall in line as such is what is required so when their candidates run they too are supported. This means that any Democrat needs to hold true to a fair number of beliefs to reap a wide consensus of their base and cruise on to victory. Republicans need one who can light the imagination and gracefully support the mainstays of the Party and be sufficiently conservative that they satisfy the purists that the entirety of the base comes out and supports them. Thus was the now immortalized Ronald Reagan, though he began his life as a Democrat and Unionist, and before him the man responsible for winning the War in Europe, General Dwight David Eisenhower. Both were men of courage and ideas and there are but a few born to every decade and it is up to the public to find such men and follow their lead. For the record, the “Reagan” Democrats were actually the extremes of the Conservative base which underpins the Republican Party. The extreme conservatives who voted that year along with the more socially moderates who voted that year were still largely not normative leftist Democrat Party supporters. They may have been had the Republican placed Pat Buchanan or other paleo-conservative on the ballot on the top spot as they would be unable to couch such a person as President. Such a choice would scare that end of the party and they would likely remain home. Still, there is not a single candidate left in the contest rigged by the party elites who could gather the entirety of the Republicans across their span and have them appear at the polls and without the base you lose, something the Democrats understand and the Republicans constantly claim is beyond their ability as they always for the most squishy of conservatives attempting to grab that middle and least left Democrats, two targets where the first does not exist and the other is too well trained to stray from their posts in supporting their party, period. Again the Republican elites have decided to field a candidate they are comfortable in having and ignoring the desires of most of the base in exchange for the chimera of the soft middle voters, a phantasm which exists only in the minds of the foolish and the delusional and through who elections have been lost for generations past and to come as they will never learn that which they refuse to believe actually exists. These New England conservatives, people who would be leftist outcasts in Oklahoma or Wyoming, cannot begin to fathom the depth of voters so conservative as to be beyond their understanding which is why they lose election after election for the Presidency which actually includes the flyover states, imagine that.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 8, 2016

Israeli Possible Futures and American Elections

 

There have been many numbers of articles predicting the fate of Israel should one party or the other take the White House next January. Where this early on it is a bit futile to be second guessing the American people, there are some concrete facts we can observe more generally and some rather specific. The most obvious fact is that Israel will likely fair better with virtually any Republican in the White House than either of the Democrat frontrunners. This has been the trend which has steadily become absolute starting with President George H. W. Bush who was far less Israel friendly than President William Jefferson Clinton. The Republican side is the most undecided; so we will begin with them, though there are some tantalizing consequences for discussion on the Democrat side.

 

The knowledge that Israel would be better served by any Republican than with either Democrat frontrunner is a no-brainer; there are still sufficient untested Republicans which leave things unsettled there as well. The top three caucus winners in Iowa are a case in point. Ted Cruz is as pro-Israel as anyone could ask for and would likely increase whatever aid Israel claimed to have or needs identified by United States Military assessments. Mr. Cruz is also the one most likely to ignore the current State Department being fully aware that the United States Department of State is closer to being an enemy foreign agent than an American foreign policy agency. They are so far into the pocket of whatever Islamic forces appear dominant at any given time ignoring the small fact that the United States can alter that picture with the slightest influence added by clandestine units in their military. Truth be known, even with Russian influence, the United States can alter any reality on the ground should it so choose. The drawback would be risking a general confrontation with the Russians which would require active duty forces in numbers sufficient to require Congressional approval and thus general media coverage. Much of the American as well as European and the World media will bend left as the media is generally more an agent of leftist ideological proponents and similarly predisposed on reporting on the Middle East which had been made evident by their misreporting or bias and slanted reporting on the Arab Israeli conflict which is decidedly anti-Israel.

 

 

Ted Cruz for President

 

Donald Trump for President

 

Marco Rubio for President

 

Next down the caucus line is Donald Trump followed by Marco Rubio. Mr. Trump is completely untested in any and all policy positions and this is even more pronounced on foreign policy. Mr. Rubio is only slightly less of a mystery. The advantage Rubio has is he will likely follow the mainline Republican positions which had become more pro-Israel. Mr. Trump has talked a good game but his true heart is unknown and he is more likely to allow the State Department and the Pentagon along with whatever foreign advisors already exist within the government initially for his positions andthis would produce a period of time where he could damage Israeli relations even further. The question is how and if that would change when he received different and pressing information from the Israelis themselves and other contacts even to include business influence from people he has dealt with and gained a degree of trust. Rubio would also be somewhat untested and known to follow the advice he receives which then would rest heavily on his choice for Secretary of State and the weight he would put on Military and other foreign policy influences against the State Department. The one thing we know is Rubio is the candidate most likely to allow others from the Republican hierarchy to set his foreign policy. The decision, if one is honest, is still out on these two candidates who were definitive winners in Iowa.

 

Of the remaining herd of contenders who at this point are not even sufficient to be second tier and are closer to third tier with the one exception, the sole other Republican candidate to clear 2%, Ben Carson. Dr. Carson would necessarily need to rely heavily on experts and thus his positions would depend completely on who he appoints with the one obvious difference, the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Our feelings are Dr. Carson would be very similar to President George W. Bush than any other predecessor. Hopefully Dr. Carson could look at a map of the areas surrounding Israel and the Middle East and realize that Egypt is currently stable, Jordan is stable with a few big ‘if’s’ sitting on her northern and eastern borders and might need to rely heavily on Israeli intelligence and potentially military support should the Islamic State turn their eyes westward seeking a border with Israel which Jordan would provide. We hear the people with their maps out pointing to the fact that such a move would still leave the West Bank and Jordan River as impasses to an Islamic State assault on Israel. We feel it would be a near certainty that not only Israel would aid Jordan but so would Saudi Arabia and the other member nations to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council). Currently the three main challenges which would face anyone stepping into office would be, in descending order, from the greatest threat down three steps are, Iran, Islamic State and the Iranian controlled terror networks of Hezballah, Islamic Jihad, to a lesser extent Hamas, and soon to be acquired Palestinian Authority which is likely to see a leadership change within two to three years as Abbas and family will take off for safer climes, probably somewhere in the United States under the witness protection agency’s assistance.

 

Ben Carson for President

 

The remainders of the Republican herd who we can take the measure of are Jeb Bush and Chris Christie who both talk a good pro-Israel game but remain untested as being governors they had little to deal with outside their States and were able to leave the big foreign policy decisions to Washington D.C. Both would likely play Republican ballgame until they were able to put their own people in place. This would mean heavy reliance on the State Department and its Arabist and Islamist leaning viewpoint and having a disparaging and deleterious effect on Israeli ability to trust any recommendations initially from the White House. The long term relations would be heavily dependent on the people placed in positions such as Secretary of State, State Department Middle East experts and department leaders, Ambassador to Israel, Ambassador to the United Nations, Security Advisor and on.

 

The Democrat side of the equation has one twist and is otherwise underwhelming. Bernie ‘Feel the Bern’ Sanders has a voting record only the Muslim Brotherhood would applaud. He has proven to have adopted the erroneous leftist view that Israel is guilty of the two greatest sins, colonialization and capitalism. On the latter, Israel can only plead guilty and proud of it. On the foremost charge Israel is provably not guilty. First piece of evidence is the Holy Bible and in particular, Torah. The Torah other than the five books which chronical the early life from Abraham forward of the Jewish people but is the deed of ownership of all the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and south of the Litany River, though the current border with Hezballah, oops, sorry, Lebanon will suffice. Don’t you just hate when that happens. Then there are the treaties, Mandates and conferences which resulted in the League of Nations declaration of intent and right of the Jews to their own state located where the Biblical accounts define their Holy Promised Lands. Bernie may have been born into a Jewish family but that little fact never softened his heart nor gave him an appreciation of the necessity for the Jewish People to have a place of refuge where they may defend themselves if again the world decides it is best to either actively slaughter the Jews or simply not lift a finger to save those few where offers are provided for their potential to save such as the SS St. Louis. We can place Senator Sanders on the State Department side and likely to continue the Obama aggressive policies concerning Israel and even supporting an Iranian centric Middle East and North Africa. Bernie Sanders has not proven to be a friend of Israel.

 

Hillary Clinton is an easier story. She really does not think all that highly of Jews. This was most evident when after Bill lost an election she angrily screamed at the campaign manager calling him some kind of derogatory form of Jew with questionable parenting engaged in a lewd act and the campaign manager was not even a Jew so the word Jew in this racy and lewd epithet could only have been included as a further form of insult. This episode has been known in political circles and in Israel for quite some time, since early in Bill Clinton’s Presidency and is chronicled here. Additionally there is e-mailgate, really, e-mailgate? Haven’t we beat the gate means scandal after Watergate back during President Nixon’s administration where Hillary Clinton did a part of the research on this case which might mitigate this and no that did not mean miti-gate conspiracy though somebody from some conspiracy website will see gate and jump ugly to conclusions. Hillary has to win the Democrat nomination and the election or she is toast and the FBI is the toaster. Any normal individual, we know that normal can never be used when the Clintons are involved, would have been detained, tried, convicted, appealed, lost and be serving time in a Federal Penitentiary. Should she lose anything leading to the White House she will be indicted immediately. As far as Hillary and Israel, could we simply state oil and water for the comparison. No, need more? Sure, Hillary is the water and Israel is the highly flammable oil floating above and Hillary lights a match above the liquid line causing all the oil to disappear in a burst of flames and smoke and the water barely gets any warmer. Hillary fully supported every Obama policy regarding Israel and with gusto. Yes, she pandered to the Jews in New York when she ran for the Senate from New York. She wanted to get elected and also have additional campaign funds. Any pro-Israel comments can be placed as purely political and playing a particular audience though probably not that necessary as most of the Jews supporting Hillary do not support Israel either. Having met too many such leftist Jews, by birth only, who line up lockstep in the parade of the Democrat mainstream which has been as hijacked. This claim can be validated by inspecting after terrorists strike and they attempt to mitigate any terror act claiming the person was hijacked and does not represent the Islam they are familiar with. Hillary will only be less of a detriment to Israel because she will pay little if any attention to foreign policy decisions leaving the majority to aids and reliance on the State Department, need more be said. The big question is rapidly becoming who will be placed replacing Hillary should she become toxic either by actual arraignment or simply too much stacked against her and her base, as fickle as it may be, simply melts away and she becomes an unviable candidate. Joe Biden has ruled out a run and in keeping with the first woman President motif, we would suggest they would have Hillary give her delegates to Elizabeth Warren who would sweep Bernie Sanders aside in a tidal change potentially notifiable from the ISS, from the International Space Station. The tide would sweep across the Democrat primary voters and her coronation would take place at the Democrat National Convention. Her likelihood of taking the Presidency would be a complete lock should she decide to choose Bernie Sanders as her running-mate as that addition to her ticket would cement the youth vote, a vote which proved so vital to President Obama. Lastly, Elizabeth warren polls excellently with Democrats and the population as a whole. We expect this last scenario to play out as it appears that the FBI has built their case and are waiting for her to falter to pull the pin on the indictment grenade which would finish her candidacy, something the Democrat main controlling interests just might prefer as they watch her national polling numbers tank.

 

Hillary Clinton for President

 

 

Bernie Sanders for President

 

There remains one critical position which almost nobody from either side is likely willing to take except one. The position is that there is not and never has been an honest partner for peace from the Palestinian Authority and most definitely not from Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Fatah, the PLO or any other Arab influence with the possible exception of Egyptian President Sisi whose efforts to force a reformation for Islam with the transformative impact greater than that of the Protestant Reformation in Europe and definitely more dangerous and threatening to President Sisi’s continued health. One can only hope for his success and pray for his continued health. As far as Israeli policy, any administrations pushing any deal other than the full annexation of the territory of Judea and Samaria with a weeding out of the most dangerous of the terror operatives and their leadership. Additionally, Israel could offer any Arab desiring to leave and never return, meaning never ever return, in exchange for a generous dispensation including purchase of their properties and holdings and a generous award of separation which would likely to exceed their expected lifetime earnings with the understanding that should they or any member of their family return they would be executed on sight. Any pushing of the deader than a doornail policy of two states living side by side in peace, security and prosperity is not realistic especially looking around the Middle East and North Africa and one sees a sea of turmoil and conflict with little comfort in sight for most of these conflicts and with all eyeing attacking Israel as a potentially solid option. How erroneous and self-destructive such a policy decision would prove, the fact it bears mention is a testament to the insanity which has soaked the region.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

January 26, 2016

What if Trump Trumps the Competition for Nomination?

 

Trump is still there against almost every prognosticator and editorial writer who keep interpreting polls and explaining how when people have to actually vote they will become serious and then they’ll vote for a serious candidate. Initially that serious candidate was Jeb Bush who flamed out really fast, then it became Governor Scott Walker but he soon decided to walk on home, then it became Senator Marco Rubio who has slowly sunk into the more of mediocracy and now the latest is former Ohio Governor John Kasich who is in third and a fairly distant third which will likely also fade in the setting poll numbers after Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina. The betting line now is after Trump, providing Trump snags victories in Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina, who will have polled well enough to have a reasonable standing to attempt to catch the nomination starting from behind, a not completely unheard of happening and, except for blessings in the Torah of second born sons, only considered expected in elections and the last two months of baseball season and a few other sports. The latest New Hampshire polling we were able to locate a poll out of New Hampshire which placed Donald Trump at twenty-seven per cent, John Kasich at twenty per cent, Marco Rubio at ten per cent, Ted Cruz at nine per cent, Chris Christie nine per cent and Jeb Bush eight per cent, with at least fifteen percent undecided as of the polling with some obviously supporting Rand Paul or Mike Huckabee and wise enough not to admit so. What is interesting about these polling numbers is that Senator Ted Cruz is receiving much of the bloviating all a titter, not to be confused for a twittered, about the Donald-Cruz one-on-one bashing, smashing, slamming, screaming with blood flowing and bruises and contusions on the stage and some Twitter smears in one-hundred-forty characters or less free-for-all. Now we see a poll of real people, not to accuse media personnel as being other than real or people but me thinks they would all protest too much and break the one-hundred-forty characters or less Twitter limits, and Cruz is in single digits making his chances as remote as expected from the start. So, what are we to take away from all of this?

 

Firstly, there is a lot of room for improved polling for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and anyone else still in the race and below Senator Jeb Bush and his eight percent polling and that the media elite and controlling editors apparently have their own agenda. Let’s look at the media, or at least a wide swath of the media and even FOX from what we have seen and read. The media will push candidates which either have little hope of becoming the nominee such as Ted Cruz, one they expect would be a weak candidate against the expected Democrat candidate which will likely be Hillary Clinton or potentially Bernie Sanders. In either case, the universal choice happens to be the front-runner Donald Trump. The media was handed the perfect storm when Ted Cruz and Donald Trump held a one-on-one, mano-a-mano, slugfest which carried on for almost a week and was the only news event as all else fell off their radar screens. The media is simply giving their largest audience exactly what they are paying to hear, and that is whatever is the most sensationalistic and bombastic news with all the gory details and particulars their money can buy. The media live and breathe in the cities and the media which has a much larger area to cover is completely different and that is what conservative talk radio serves and they are covering the rest of the field and even they find they need to invest an inordinate amount of time covering the Donald Trump phenomena as that is where their audience desires to hear about because it affects them as well.

 

 

Democrat Front Runners Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders

Democrat Front Runners
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

 

 

The particulars about this year’s Republican race and the media covering it until the news is up to its neck in coverage of the Donald has part of its root in the fact that the Democrat race is a two person race from the outset and the only real question there is Hilary, Hilary and more Hilary. Bernie Sanders is sneaking up on the media because they did not believe the crowds he was drawing with his carnival like atmosphere were real because the media had been told by the Democrat establishment that they had piled all of their apples into Hilary as it was her turn. Well, the people have different ideas and Bernie has lit up their interest and he is now the face of the true believers on the left and the antiestablishment candidate. When the media realizes that Hilary had a credible challenger, even if it is Bernie Sanders, the media will clump around them and squeeze until the pressure breaks him or the primaries are over and all of a sudden Bernie will be their man and he was their man all along because Hilary was just too much yesterday’s news. If, or dare we say when, Bernie Sanders finished off the last gasp from the Clinton ‘machine,’ the question will be does the Clinton machine now swing in behind Bernie or will they hold their cards and donor lists close to their chests and hope he fails so they can begin claiming that 2020 was their target year all along. That decision may decide if there is a Clinton machine left after this race as if they do not back Bernie and he wins, that will be the end of it, done, over. Be that such as it may, the crash and burn by Hilary twice in a row and in both instances to what everyone claimed were too weak and unknown candidates who had one thing Hilary lacked, excitement. Hilary never ran for the nomination and simply waiting for what she claimed and honestly believed was inevitable, the White House and status as the first woman President and she offered nothing more and a whole lot less.

 

The Donald is proving that there is no inevitability in politics and that it truly has become a circus. Like Hilary on the democrat side there is Jeb, it’s my turn to be President, Bush who thought when he had the walk-in victory well in hand when he was the only candidate we had heard of and all the money was flowing his way, the republicans were almost giddy with the idea of another Clinton/Bush contest they figured they could win simply by showing up. Well, this year is looking anything but set in their ways, establishment backed Party politics and the people have finally decided it is their country and their Party and they are going to do what they desire and not just follow the Party line drawn for them. This is going to be the year of the populace come what may and the establishment is not what they want in either side. There is no ‘anybody but Bush’ line in the Republican race. The race was Jeb’s to lose and it appears he has done exactly that, lost it. What started this insanity which is quickly becoming the mainstream effort if, for no other reason, because that is the story the media may have caught onto right at the onset when Donald Trump, old Clinton friend and cohort grabbed large audiences to his appearances just as much to laugh and at some point turned and supported him just as Bernie has been doing on the Democrat side.

 

 

The Donald-Make America Great Again-Trump

The Donald-Make America Great Again-Trump

 

 

So, what happens if Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination? The question is more as to what will the Republican establishment do should Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination? It is important to remember that Donald Trump does not need the permission of the Republican Party as much as they will need his stamp of approval as he will have already passed the baptism by fire the campaign threw at him and came out on top. Further, Donald Trump does not need to rely upon the Party money to back him and he does not need the Party permission once he has won the nomination and he might do all that much better without the support of the Republican Party establishment. The favor the Republican Party elites would hand the American public would be for them to refuse to accept Trump as their candidate after he wins hands down the elective process and they deny him his rightful place through manipulating the Convention voting or other controls the Parties hold over their nomination processes in each state and in a larger part over their convention voting itself. It is still possible in both parties to win big in the primaries and still lose by a fairly surprising margin in the convention vote.

 

How is that, you ask? Without going through a ton of confusing math, here are the basics. Just because you win a state’s primary, do not go counting those delegates quite yet. Many states have adopted to use some method other than the winners take all allocation of their delegates. They get as confusing as having each voting district winner getting that delegate and the final delegates which would represent the Senators that state has in Congress usually going to the winner of the state overall but that can be altered and given by the Party bosses as they see fit. There are also the super delegates which are controlled by the elitists of the Party by which they retain some degree of control over who wins the nomination. Then there are all sorts of devious manner in which any selection process can be swayed and be controlled by the Party elite through such means as releasing the delegates from their presumed sworn obligation to vote as they were legally instructed by the states and then lean on the delegates seen as most likely to be susceptible to pressures and other manners of ‘buying’ their vote. Then there is the old adage that it is not who wins the election but who counts the votes that matters, also known as the Stalin approach to politics. After all, it was Joseph Stalin who pointed out this little fact that, “The people who cast the votes don’t decide an election, the people who count the votes do.” So, assume it safe to say that as long as Donald Trump does not win the necessary number of votes outright, even going down to the Congressional seats level and delegate by delegate count, then the often referred to as the powers that be will control who the candidate representing the Party and then appoint the person most likely to lose and have their political career ended once and for all. There are serious consequences for crossing the people when it comes to negating the power of their votes. That is a part of the animus against President Obama as he takes matters into his own hands bypassing the Congress.

 

Finally, just as Donald Trump could do by running as a third Party or no Party candidate, the Republican elites could put their influences and resources behind a third Party candidate either overtly or covertly using all sorts of weapons the largest of which is their influence over money. The Party establishment could decide suddenly that the Presidency is less important than winning Congress and claim in panicked desperate soundbites that they must, in order to save the Party, take all the Party monies and use them to elect every office other than the Presidency thus taking huge sums of money and other resources from the Presidential campaign with the most damaging part being the voter rolls and donations from the Presidential candidate in the final two to three months. Against Donald Trump such a move would be suicidal as he could finance his entire campaign without a penny from the Party but his slogan of win against the dirty money; after all there is nothing cleaner than a candidate using their own money to mount their campaign. Any nefarious or clandestine manner used to steal the campaign from the obvious and going away victor from the primary system would simply be the final nail in the Party coffin as when it comes down to it, what makes a political Party if it is not votes from the public, so ignore them at your own peril.

 

So, now Donald Trump is the Party candidate and will be listed on every state’s ballots as the republican nominee for President, now what? This is where the runner meets the road and we stop using these silly catch phrases as this is where the sloganeering gets decisive. The slogans are chosen and the campaign commercials are shot and the final race to the finish has been run and it is Election Day. There are numerous kinds of Republican and Democrat voters. There are the voters who always vote Party line, the absolute, who else would they vote for base. There are the base behind each candidate which may place some voters who were a different candidate’s true supporter who now must choose between two people they did not support or chose to stay home and watch the Gilligan’s Island Marathon on the who are we kidding channel. It are these stay at home my guy lost and I’m going to pout on election day hoping that if the Party candidate fails they can blame the Party for not seeing your infinite wisdom and intelligence when you supported candidate X and the Party foolishly tempted fate choosing candidate Y. The thing which has changed in politics has been the importance of turning out your Party’s base supporters which, except in the most unusual of cases, is not simply the important thing but the most vital thing in the universe. Elections here in the Twenty-First Century are not won on winning the middle voters, the average voter, as almost none of those voters who will cross ideological lines and even Party lines exist any longer. There are all kinds of single or three issue voters and the candidate needs to turn as many of these from their Party’s voters out to the polls. This is why many politicians have mastered talking out of both sides of their mouths simultaneously and some even manage saying three things at once all while stating nothing at all. This is seemingly more important for the conservative candidate as they have far more to lose if they do not hold true to every single issue which gets tricky when there are opposites within your Party structure. The easiest issues are gun rights and abortion. There are those Second Amendment voters on both sides of the abortion issue just as there are pro-life voters on either side of the gun issue. There is no way of parsing these dichotomies which will produce a guaranteed victory and all one can hope to do is tell the truth and hope they have not hurt themselves too badly.

 

These such issues are often far more damaging for conservatives because liberal media types will always attempt to peel back supporters by asking pointed and sharp edged questions on the most contentious issues hoping to cut voters away from the conservative candidate one-by-one if need be and conservative media will question them similarly claiming to want to present the truth to the voters. In elections there is such a thing as too much truth, especially for conservative candidates as each truth may cost them the election. This is especially true in the Presidential elections as there are far more liberal voters who will hold their nose and vote for the liberal party candidate, the Democrat just because they are not that evil person over on the other side of the ballot. Conservatives need a reason to vote for you and not just I’m not that other person, I am the Republican as that does not walk the walk or even talk the talk according to all too many voters. Those who claim they cannot vote for Trump because he used to be a liberal would likely not have liked Winston Churchill as he was among the left when he was young and somewhere during World War I he became a conservative and an ardent proponent of being prepared to fight a war when it is easily won rather than refuse to face facts that a storm is brewing. He had a number of great sayings on just that subject but I would rather use a different category on which he was also a great and wise discerner of humankind. Sir Winston Churchill stated, “If you’re not a liberal at twenty you have no heart, if you’re not a conservative at forty you have no brain.” That’s a great stopping point, till tomorrow.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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