Beyond the Cusp

February 8, 2016

Israeli Possible Futures and American Elections

 

There have been many numbers of articles predicting the fate of Israel should one party or the other take the White House next January. Where this early on it is a bit futile to be second guessing the American people, there are some concrete facts we can observe more generally and some rather specific. The most obvious fact is that Israel will likely fair better with virtually any Republican in the White House than either of the Democrat frontrunners. This has been the trend which has steadily become absolute starting with President George H. W. Bush who was far less Israel friendly than President William Jefferson Clinton. The Republican side is the most undecided; so we will begin with them, though there are some tantalizing consequences for discussion on the Democrat side.

 

The knowledge that Israel would be better served by any Republican than with either Democrat frontrunner is a no-brainer; there are still sufficient untested Republicans which leave things unsettled there as well. The top three caucus winners in Iowa are a case in point. Ted Cruz is as pro-Israel as anyone could ask for and would likely increase whatever aid Israel claimed to have or needs identified by United States Military assessments. Mr. Cruz is also the one most likely to ignore the current State Department being fully aware that the United States Department of State is closer to being an enemy foreign agent than an American foreign policy agency. They are so far into the pocket of whatever Islamic forces appear dominant at any given time ignoring the small fact that the United States can alter that picture with the slightest influence added by clandestine units in their military. Truth be known, even with Russian influence, the United States can alter any reality on the ground should it so choose. The drawback would be risking a general confrontation with the Russians which would require active duty forces in numbers sufficient to require Congressional approval and thus general media coverage. Much of the American as well as European and the World media will bend left as the media is generally more an agent of leftist ideological proponents and similarly predisposed on reporting on the Middle East which had been made evident by their misreporting or bias and slanted reporting on the Arab Israeli conflict which is decidedly anti-Israel.

 

 

Ted Cruz for President

 

Donald Trump for President

 

Marco Rubio for President

 

Next down the caucus line is Donald Trump followed by Marco Rubio. Mr. Trump is completely untested in any and all policy positions and this is even more pronounced on foreign policy. Mr. Rubio is only slightly less of a mystery. The advantage Rubio has is he will likely follow the mainline Republican positions which had become more pro-Israel. Mr. Trump has talked a good game but his true heart is unknown and he is more likely to allow the State Department and the Pentagon along with whatever foreign advisors already exist within the government initially for his positions andthis would produce a period of time where he could damage Israeli relations even further. The question is how and if that would change when he received different and pressing information from the Israelis themselves and other contacts even to include business influence from people he has dealt with and gained a degree of trust. Rubio would also be somewhat untested and known to follow the advice he receives which then would rest heavily on his choice for Secretary of State and the weight he would put on Military and other foreign policy influences against the State Department. The one thing we know is Rubio is the candidate most likely to allow others from the Republican hierarchy to set his foreign policy. The decision, if one is honest, is still out on these two candidates who were definitive winners in Iowa.

 

Of the remaining herd of contenders who at this point are not even sufficient to be second tier and are closer to third tier with the one exception, the sole other Republican candidate to clear 2%, Ben Carson. Dr. Carson would necessarily need to rely heavily on experts and thus his positions would depend completely on who he appoints with the one obvious difference, the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Our feelings are Dr. Carson would be very similar to President George W. Bush than any other predecessor. Hopefully Dr. Carson could look at a map of the areas surrounding Israel and the Middle East and realize that Egypt is currently stable, Jordan is stable with a few big ‘if’s’ sitting on her northern and eastern borders and might need to rely heavily on Israeli intelligence and potentially military support should the Islamic State turn their eyes westward seeking a border with Israel which Jordan would provide. We hear the people with their maps out pointing to the fact that such a move would still leave the West Bank and Jordan River as impasses to an Islamic State assault on Israel. We feel it would be a near certainty that not only Israel would aid Jordan but so would Saudi Arabia and the other member nations to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council). Currently the three main challenges which would face anyone stepping into office would be, in descending order, from the greatest threat down three steps are, Iran, Islamic State and the Iranian controlled terror networks of Hezballah, Islamic Jihad, to a lesser extent Hamas, and soon to be acquired Palestinian Authority which is likely to see a leadership change within two to three years as Abbas and family will take off for safer climes, probably somewhere in the United States under the witness protection agency’s assistance.

 

Ben Carson for President

 

The remainders of the Republican herd who we can take the measure of are Jeb Bush and Chris Christie who both talk a good pro-Israel game but remain untested as being governors they had little to deal with outside their States and were able to leave the big foreign policy decisions to Washington D.C. Both would likely play Republican ballgame until they were able to put their own people in place. This would mean heavy reliance on the State Department and its Arabist and Islamist leaning viewpoint and having a disparaging and deleterious effect on Israeli ability to trust any recommendations initially from the White House. The long term relations would be heavily dependent on the people placed in positions such as Secretary of State, State Department Middle East experts and department leaders, Ambassador to Israel, Ambassador to the United Nations, Security Advisor and on.

 

The Democrat side of the equation has one twist and is otherwise underwhelming. Bernie ‘Feel the Bern’ Sanders has a voting record only the Muslim Brotherhood would applaud. He has proven to have adopted the erroneous leftist view that Israel is guilty of the two greatest sins, colonialization and capitalism. On the latter, Israel can only plead guilty and proud of it. On the foremost charge Israel is provably not guilty. First piece of evidence is the Holy Bible and in particular, Torah. The Torah other than the five books which chronical the early life from Abraham forward of the Jewish people but is the deed of ownership of all the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and south of the Litany River, though the current border with Hezballah, oops, sorry, Lebanon will suffice. Don’t you just hate when that happens. Then there are the treaties, Mandates and conferences which resulted in the League of Nations declaration of intent and right of the Jews to their own state located where the Biblical accounts define their Holy Promised Lands. Bernie may have been born into a Jewish family but that little fact never softened his heart nor gave him an appreciation of the necessity for the Jewish People to have a place of refuge where they may defend themselves if again the world decides it is best to either actively slaughter the Jews or simply not lift a finger to save those few where offers are provided for their potential to save such as the SS St. Louis. We can place Senator Sanders on the State Department side and likely to continue the Obama aggressive policies concerning Israel and even supporting an Iranian centric Middle East and North Africa. Bernie Sanders has not proven to be a friend of Israel.

 

Hillary Clinton is an easier story. She really does not think all that highly of Jews. This was most evident when after Bill lost an election she angrily screamed at the campaign manager calling him some kind of derogatory form of Jew with questionable parenting engaged in a lewd act and the campaign manager was not even a Jew so the word Jew in this racy and lewd epithet could only have been included as a further form of insult. This episode has been known in political circles and in Israel for quite some time, since early in Bill Clinton’s Presidency and is chronicled here. Additionally there is e-mailgate, really, e-mailgate? Haven’t we beat the gate means scandal after Watergate back during President Nixon’s administration where Hillary Clinton did a part of the research on this case which might mitigate this and no that did not mean miti-gate conspiracy though somebody from some conspiracy website will see gate and jump ugly to conclusions. Hillary has to win the Democrat nomination and the election or she is toast and the FBI is the toaster. Any normal individual, we know that normal can never be used when the Clintons are involved, would have been detained, tried, convicted, appealed, lost and be serving time in a Federal Penitentiary. Should she lose anything leading to the White House she will be indicted immediately. As far as Hillary and Israel, could we simply state oil and water for the comparison. No, need more? Sure, Hillary is the water and Israel is the highly flammable oil floating above and Hillary lights a match above the liquid line causing all the oil to disappear in a burst of flames and smoke and the water barely gets any warmer. Hillary fully supported every Obama policy regarding Israel and with gusto. Yes, she pandered to the Jews in New York when she ran for the Senate from New York. She wanted to get elected and also have additional campaign funds. Any pro-Israel comments can be placed as purely political and playing a particular audience though probably not that necessary as most of the Jews supporting Hillary do not support Israel either. Having met too many such leftist Jews, by birth only, who line up lockstep in the parade of the Democrat mainstream which has been as hijacked. This claim can be validated by inspecting after terrorists strike and they attempt to mitigate any terror act claiming the person was hijacked and does not represent the Islam they are familiar with. Hillary will only be less of a detriment to Israel because she will pay little if any attention to foreign policy decisions leaving the majority to aids and reliance on the State Department, need more be said. The big question is rapidly becoming who will be placed replacing Hillary should she become toxic either by actual arraignment or simply too much stacked against her and her base, as fickle as it may be, simply melts away and she becomes an unviable candidate. Joe Biden has ruled out a run and in keeping with the first woman President motif, we would suggest they would have Hillary give her delegates to Elizabeth Warren who would sweep Bernie Sanders aside in a tidal change potentially notifiable from the ISS, from the International Space Station. The tide would sweep across the Democrat primary voters and her coronation would take place at the Democrat National Convention. Her likelihood of taking the Presidency would be a complete lock should she decide to choose Bernie Sanders as her running-mate as that addition to her ticket would cement the youth vote, a vote which proved so vital to President Obama. Lastly, Elizabeth warren polls excellently with Democrats and the population as a whole. We expect this last scenario to play out as it appears that the FBI has built their case and are waiting for her to falter to pull the pin on the indictment grenade which would finish her candidacy, something the Democrat main controlling interests just might prefer as they watch her national polling numbers tank.

 

Hillary Clinton for President

 

 

Bernie Sanders for President

 

There remains one critical position which almost nobody from either side is likely willing to take except one. The position is that there is not and never has been an honest partner for peace from the Palestinian Authority and most definitely not from Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Fatah, the PLO or any other Arab influence with the possible exception of Egyptian President Sisi whose efforts to force a reformation for Islam with the transformative impact greater than that of the Protestant Reformation in Europe and definitely more dangerous and threatening to President Sisi’s continued health. One can only hope for his success and pray for his continued health. As far as Israeli policy, any administrations pushing any deal other than the full annexation of the territory of Judea and Samaria with a weeding out of the most dangerous of the terror operatives and their leadership. Additionally, Israel could offer any Arab desiring to leave and never return, meaning never ever return, in exchange for a generous dispensation including purchase of their properties and holdings and a generous award of separation which would likely to exceed their expected lifetime earnings with the understanding that should they or any member of their family return they would be executed on sight. Any pushing of the deader than a doornail policy of two states living side by side in peace, security and prosperity is not realistic especially looking around the Middle East and North Africa and one sees a sea of turmoil and conflict with little comfort in sight for most of these conflicts and with all eyeing attacking Israel as a potentially solid option. How erroneous and self-destructive such a policy decision would prove, the fact it bears mention is a testament to the insanity which has soaked the region.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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September 12, 2015

Obama and Abbas to Start Israel Concessions Drive

 

Now that President Obama has cowed Congressional Senators and a fair number of Representatives into not opposing the Iran deal which was already forced down the throat of all Americans from President Obama taking an end run around Congress by using the Security Council as his enforcer drone making any opposition by Congress a mute matter. Once President Obama had his Chapter Seven United Nations Security Council Resolution giving a huge “Amen” to the Iran deal and side deals making them ‘Kosher’ and imposed upon a largely sleeping and uncaring world, Congress, even if they stopped the deal presumably by overriding a Presidential veto, was powerless to prevent the Iran deal being enforced on the United States. Even if Congress were to impeach President Obama for going to the United Nations as a get around on Congress, the Chapter Seven Resolution would still be enforceable and even with a willing President in the White House, without another repealing vote by the Security Council, the Iran deal is the law of the land as all Chapter Seven Resolutions are enforceable on United Nations members as long as they remain in the United Nations and enforceable even on those who are not members by force of arms by the permanent members of the Security Council and whichever nations they can get to join them. This is one of the fears Israel faces which are the arguments for their remaining in the United Nations as that gives them some influence just for being a part of the discussion and might make some nations to think twice before condemning Israel.

 

With Mahmoud Abbas basically remaining silent while he has had a number of subordinates trot out the idea that the Palestinian Authority (PA) is about to announce at the United Nations Opening Session Ceremonies that they are disbanding the PA and rejecting the Oslo Accords as unproductive and simply going to announce that the nation of Palestine, thanks to gifts which keep on giving from the United Nations General Assembly and NGOs, is declaring themselves as an occupied nation and petitioning the world to assist them in forcing the occupier from their lands. This threat will be leveraged by President Obama in any meeting he can force between now and then, even if he has to phone Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu twice a day, and three times on Sabbath, either forcing a meeting or simply announcing that he has discussed how Israel would be best served by reinitiating the Peace Process and will be required to make a grand sacrifice in order to get the Palestinians to reenter negotiations as the Palestinian Arab leadership has lost all hope in negotiations. This has been the scene which has played out every off-election year in the United States and the result has been exactly identical under Prime Minister Netanyahu as it has under every other Prime Minister (all of which were Labor leftists except for Prime Minister Sharon who already had collapsed before pressures and disengaged from Gaza which ultimately led to rocket madness with Hamas taking those lands) since the 1993 Oslo Accords were signed. So, in the interest of history remembered possibly being history not repeated, let’s take a look at what these grand sacrifices have produced for Israel since 1993.

 

The most obvious change since 1993 was the formalizing of the treacherous concept that Israel could trade “Land for Peace” and that this concept was also the way to reach a final accord with the Palestinians Arabs. So every time there were new talks or rumblings of Arabs going to the United Nations, where the Arab League and Unaligned Nations hold a majority in the General Assembly, it has resulted in a minimum of one-hundred out of one-hundred-ninety-three votes against Israel and supporting Arab Palestinian causes, which is why Israel has been denounced by the General Assembly and has been so willing to take steps to appease this “Land for Peace” threat in order to presumably give cover for the United States in the Security Council to fight against any Chapter Seven Resolutions from forcing Israel into a corner or facing military force used by the permanent members by using their veto if required. This had been the latest additional Sword of Damocles hanging over Israel held by President Obama who has more than any President, even George H. W. Bush (Bush Sr.), threatening to withhold the Security Council Veto and allowing the full weight of the United Nations from striking at Israel and forcing them to defend their entire nation from an assault by the remainder of the world, including the United States and the other four permanent members of the Security Council (Russia, China, France, and Britain) from invading with whatever Arabs felt like getting in on the fun and presumed defeat of the ‘Zionist Entity’ by the world at large. So we are now entering the Obama-Abbas Threatening Zone where anything can be demanded and every potential sacrifice threateningly paraded as potential demands eventually weakening the will of the Israeli Prime Minister and the Knesset allowing for grand sacrifices to be extracted.

 

 

Obama and Abbas together again and plotting on what to hatch on Netanyahu who is necessarily wary

 

One has to wonder what an Israeli Prime Minister might be capable of doing in order to counter such a unified threat coming with all sides, even Israeli (quote) friends (unquote) urging that Israel make some grand sacrifice as it is for peace. Somehow they always seem to get Israel when it is for Peace. One will note that they seldom claim it is do this or face complete annihilation. No, they always couch it as for peace. Even the Israelis who fought to have Oslo Accords implemented promised peace. They scream and promise peace, peace, yet there is no peace. And why is there no peace if Israel has regularly backed further into an indefensible corner for peace has peace not developed? Well, because the Arab Palestinians do not desire peace, they desire and will only accept a dead corpse of Israel with six million plus dead Jews as the cherry on top. The Palestinians have refused every offer even one which had been proposed under what Arafat, remember their arch terror leader, Arafat had stipulated the Arabs would accept only to have Arafat stomp indignantly from the next morning’s talks in Paris when President Clinton stated that the Israelis had agreed to release almost ninety-five percent of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), all of Gaza and even split Jerusalem in half allowing for the Eastern portion of Jerusalem to serve as the Palestinian Capital City just as Arafat had demanded the night before to President Clinton as acceptable. So, we have seen the truth of the hand the Arab Palestinians are demanding, even if Israel meets their demands they will walk away and instigate another intifada and blame it on Israel for not making peace. So, what is Israel to do, especially looking down the threats of an adversarial America President?

 

This is where Israel needs to look at past performances and what those brought. Even with George W. Bush (Bush Jr.) and Bill Clinton in the White House, two of the most pro-Israel Presidents if we are to believe history, and see what working with these brought. Under the assistance of President Clinton the Israelis were steered from the signing of Oslo Accords which defined Area A as Arab, Area C as Israeli and Area B as to be determined and divided as acceptable to each side, where now we have reached the point where Area A and Area B are now Arab, ninety percent of Area C is Arab including east Jerusalem and that is considered a starting point for more concessions and still is insufficient to make peace. One might look at that and believe that President Clinton was the Israelis greatest enemy yet in Israel he was seen as a misguided fool no worse than the Israeli Prime Ministers he worked with, or against as when he worked desperately through all channels to get one Israeli Prime Minister defeated in order to be the one who forged the peace and even after replacing Netanyahu with Ehud Barak, he could not force Arafat to make peace. Israel was not the problem here. Then under President Bush, Prime Minister Sharon gave away the entirety of Gaza so that the Arabs could prove they could live in peace besides Israel. All it proved was that the Arabs were not willing to live in peace next to Israel but such was still ignored and the United States basically claimed that if Israel were to now surrender all of Judea, Samaria and half of Jerusalem then there would be peace and an end to rockets falling on Israeli communities. Does anybody honestly believe this tripe?

 

Where all this is leading is obvious even to the most casual observer, yet all ignore the obvious and press forever onward. The problem is there are no casual observers. The United States leadership want to be the ones to have made peace no matter the cost, the Arabs want Israel destroyed no matter how long it takes, and the Israelis just want peace and to get on with their lives without the constant threat of war and terrorism. The problem is that there is no break in this viscous cycle which goes like this, the Arabs demand concessions of Israel to restart talks, the Americans force an Israeli sacrifice, the talks start, the Palestinians demand more and more concessions until everything breaks down, the Americans demand more and more until they realize they are demanding too much and they stop and the Arabs walk out or Israel meets some demand completely and the Arabs walk away or Israel finally says no and the Arabs scream foul and walk away demanding the world punish Israel and then the world punishes Israel, if only they would not do so with such zeal. The constants are the Arabs demanding more and the Arabs eventually walking away when the world refuses to completely destroy Israel for them. Eventually the world will tire of this stupid game and simply decide that it is not worth any more efforts on their behalf and demand that Israel surrenders. What, you’re surprised? Remember that Israel simply desires to live at peace, make wondrous discoveries and inventions in agriculture, medicine, physics, chemistry and every other field of human endeavor except one, violence against their fellow man while the Arabs are proficient in one thing above all else, and this is not a slam against the vast majority of Arabs who prefer to live their lives in peace and at peace with their fellow man, is threats and acts of violence. Eighty percent or more of the current wars on earth have as at least one of the sides as an Arab nation or Arab terrorism being the driving force. The greatest conflagrations currently is in Syria where Arabs and their allies have flocked from the world over to engage in a multifaceted war where there are at a minimum five groups engaged in mutual destruction including but not limited to, Bashir al-Assad and the remnants of the Syrian military, Hezballah, ISIS, al-Qaeda, Iran and Russia. Violence continues across Iraq, in Yemen, in the Sinai Peninsula, between the two sides in Sudan despite the presumed settling of that conflict with the establishing of South Sudan, in Nigeria, Mali, Cameroon and their neighbors falling within the violence by Boko Haram and one could continue on.

 

So, how will Israel extricate themselves from this viscous circle of destruction? The only answer is strength. We look at the one consistent item which should convince Israel that they must break free of this is that even those presumably acting in concert with Israel to produce peace only end up demanding more from Israel and delivering nothing ever in return except more demands. Israel must stand and scream out, “No more!” Israel must set what is in her best interest, even if taking all of Judea and Samaria and annexing them and finalizing the annexation of the Golan Heights, Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and all of Jerusalem and declare Jerusalem as it one and only Capital City and invite all nations to join in building an international zone where they will all build new embassies and a grand meeting place where all nations can come and participate in forging peace elsewhere in the world as Israel has always been and remains the nation that had sought peace even to their own detriment. The Arabs residing in Judea and Samaria should be given semiautonomous governance over their cities where they already hold such under the condition that all holy places as recognized by the Israeli government must be respected, remain open to all visitors and all who wish to pray at these sites can do so without any fears of violence. The Israeli security forces will see that such is the case and will act to prevent any act of violence by whatever means are required. The Arabs may become Israeli citizens with full rights and responsibilities through an established series of requirements beginning with their signing a loyalty oath with the understanding that any abrogation of this oath will result in their facing either a minimum ten years in prison or exile from Israel never to be permitted to return under threat of double the ten years in prison followed by exile. Any Arab caught in an act of terror will also face the same punishment as their loyalty oath will be judged to have been taken in bad faith and under the guise of deceit. The school systems will come under Israeli education department with the application of the same expectations and curriculum as any other Israeli academy. Islamic schools will be permitted and treated equally as are Yeshiva Jewish schools when it comes to curriculum and requirements. There will be some period of adjustment but with time and patient efforts and with proof of receiving equality before the law and equality and acceptance as time passes and wounds heal these lands and people will be accepted as full citizens with full and equal rights, some might even claim superior rights than they were afforded under the rule of the PA as the PA ceased having elections as soon as Abbas realized he could no longer control the outcome. Israel has no other manner to end the constant attempts at terrorism, rocket firing, stabbing, rock attacks and worse.

 

There is another reason which, unless one watches the media with great enthusiasm even including numerous Israeli sources, will pass unnoticed but the horrific effects will still be inflicted as the levels of violence and terrorist strikes will ramp up heading through the month and will be used by the Arabs and Americans as the reason that Israel must capitulate and make a grand concessions which will include but not be limited to any and all expectations the Arabs believed were theirs for the taking plus a complete new set of demands which they offer as the opening salvo in this year’s let’s see what the American fools will work with us to force Israelis to surrender in the name of the peace we will never make. Maybe this will be the year and the right leader in the White House to grant us final victory and defeat the Zionist Entity for us as we are unable of doing these ourselves. For this reason and as a stance taken for peace and the end of the farcical set of ruses which are passed off as the Oslo Accords and the path to peace, Israel must bring this circus to an end and take its own path to peace. When the world screams that Israel must return such of the lands they occupied after the Sex Day War, Israel must reply, “We have returned the vast majority of the lands we occupied. As far as Judea and Samaria, these we liberated from Jordanian occupation from the 1948-9 War of Annihilation which the Arabs gained these lands through their aggressions and held illegally. The Jordan River is our rightful and legal border and those Jordanian citizens who were moved into these lands are here illegally but we will grant them the same offers we offer the indigenous Arabs as Israeli is more than fair. As for what we will keep to assure our ability to defend our borders, we will keep the Golan Heights. Remember this above all else, we held the Sinai Peninsula and for some years the border of Egypt and Israel was the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, so do not even begin with Israel must surrender most of the occupied lands as we did so when we reached our peace with Egypt. This we do in the name of peace and if allowed to work through some difficulties we will have a peace that makes all satisfied and equality will reign within our borders for all our citizens and we will even grant better conditions for those who choose to remain as foreign residents within our borders as Israel is an open and equal society. But as Oslo Accords were used purely as a bludgeon, a cudgel to attempt to beat the life from Israel’s borders and crush the spirit of the Israeli people and to which we say, this weapon that used the name of peace in a blasphemous manner is no more and instead truth will be the weapon with which Israel will enforce a new peace, a workable peace while demanding no more and no less than was promised us through treaty and International Law, so be warned that this is the end and the rightfulness of this end. That is what Israel need do and anything less will result in an eventual war where too many will die needlessly as this option remains open and the only other option the Arabs have offered up is a great conflagration where either the Jews are mercilessly slaughtered or the world finally grants Israel her peace and secured borders as we now define such.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 13, 2015

A Chance America Riding Off Into the Sunset

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There has been speculation about what role the United States will play on the world’s stage as threats abound of various severities and natures almost everywhere one looks and still we hear from United States President Obama that he awaits final strategy and complete plans laid out before him from the Pentagon before he can act. This excuse from President Obama for not committing to some plan of action sounds unrealistic, especially as it is well known even personally after having served in the United States Army, the Pentagon has plans, War Scenarios, for near any contingency which might arise. This makes President Obama’s excuse of not having any plans before him sound quite lame. Even had the Pentagon not had an exact battle plan in place when ISIS first reared their ugly heads and started chopping heads, especially since some belonged to the United States, you can bet the Pentagon went to their files and had cobbled together six ways come Sunday for dealing with ISIS which probably had added contingencies for removing Bashir al-Assad from power and potentially addressing the Iranian nuclear issue as well. The one thing is, they were not short of was plans. The only thing necessary would be for the President to choose one and they would be implementing within forty-eight hours. Each set of plans would have in the full layout exactly which units were trained for that exact mission and which of those units was at full strength and had a ready status. They would have decided whether or not to use the ready actions units of which at least two brigades of Army would be on immediate deployment status and I can assume the Marines, Navy and Air Force have similar plans for immediate response to any call up.

 

We can trust the Pentagon has plans and that all the President need do is pick up that phone he claims he could use to call for action if Congress did not pass his legislation in a timely manner and instead call the Pentagon and request their actions and plans be presented. Then he could pick up that pen with which he threatened Congress to use to write Executive Orders and use it to sign off on a plan of action and then write an Executive Memo to the leaders in Congress informing them of the impending actions and the Pentagon would take care of the rest. There is one contingency for which the Pentagon likely has plans but would be unable to implement them until the President ordered them to follow and support somebody else’s initiation of actions. That is President Obama’s famous plan of leading from behind, better known as following which often is the action of those too cowardly to commit to actions and stick their neck out, something which would be risky against ISIS but the President can go ahead and stick his neck out, the military would be out in front and would do or die even knowing that in the end the President would claim the glory, after all he took out Osama bin Laden haven’t you heard. Leading from behind is not an option on this crisis but President Obama is not one to make definitive decisions which might have him owning his actions. President Obama would rather simply follow and take only that action was dictated by somebody else, the United Nations, the European Union, NATO led by another member, actually President Obama would follow anybody, well, anybody but Israel. Were Israel to engage ISIS, it would not be a complete surprise if President Obama gave weapons to ISIS through some obscure middleman leader of another nation who might be supportive of ISIS though doing so would be risky. But until somebody else takes the lead we can expect more excuses over action from the White House.

 

One wonders if President Obama has even requested the Pentagon produce their plans for dealing with ISIS and said plans actually called for the United States to sit this round out. We can figure that the United States is loath to send troops back into Iraq after being pulled out by President Obama in a manner that military planners had informed the President was a premature action which would cause more problems than it could solve. The one problem leaving a residual force would not have addressed was President Obama winning reelection on his promise to bring our boys home come something (keeping it family friendly) or high water. The Pentagon may have been requested to provide plans which would include supporting UN or EU or NATO action taken to facilitate leading from behind at which time the Pentagon action would most likely be exactly what we are seeing, doing nothing waiting for somebody else to take the initiative so they could follow thus leading from behind again allowing President Obama to risk nothing which actually making a choice and lead would mean. But this begs a question; what happens if the United States is about to return to her historic role of isolationism where the United States trades with her friends and with her enemies but on a lesser scale and dares not interfere in worldly matters allowing them to work themselves out without United States interventions. United States entering an isolationist perspective would only allow her deployment of troops to be limited and almost always to support trade more than worrying about such trivialities as world balance and defeating evil, that’s better left to the knights of Europe who have always done this before. Of course this before was before the United States encouraged Europe to stop their militarism and that the United States would spread her umbrella and cover them so they could turn to less harmful pursuits such as taking on debt and squabbling amongst each other, just this time no world wars starting in Europe, that was the deal the United States imposed on Europe. But now it appears the United States may be folding up that umbrella and claiming not to see the storm clouds rising out of the Middle East, a denial which is difficult to swallow.

 

The going theory is that the United States will return to the role of the world’s police and enforce the good behavior between the nations extending force projection where needed. That is not the historic tendency of the United States after any major conflicts; her historic stance has been a laissez-faire attitude of simple sitting back keeping her hands politely to herself, which is the norm from the United States. The average American knows little about world affairs and cares even less. The average American was defined by President Clinton in his initial campaign for the Presidency with his slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid.” The stupid in this case was George Herbert Walker Bush (the elder and first Pres Bush) and the elections proved it as President Bush did not gain reelection largely due to his having broken his promise of, “Read my lips; no new taxes,” and then was forced to raise taxes by a Democrat Congress in order to get his budget passed with the military spending not slashed by the Congress. The election of President Clinton over reelecting President Bush was all about domestic policies over foreign policies.

 

You start to talk about foreign policy with the average American and their eyes gloss over and they drift into some zombie like state all catatonic and in shock after the first two or three sentences. Talk about immigration, taxes, domestic hot-button issues, government spending of which all is unnecessary except those they are or will receive, and the economy then you will engage in a sometimes heated debate. Talk about money and they will listen, talk about something happening in the Mille East or Asia and they will repeat what the media stated, that is bad, that is good and those people sure have as rough time, but then they will turn it back to how the government needs to take care of things at home first. The average American has all the sympathy you could ever ask for and they will donate more to charities than any other peoples on earth but when it comes to sending their young men off to fight in what they mostly see as somebody else’s war, then they need a ton of convincing and President Obama surfs waves, seldom makes waves when it comes to world politics. The President came from a past as a community organizer, read rabble rouser causing trouble to force government actions usually spending more money of which they get the lion’s share, and knows little outside of Chicago, let alone outside of the United States. He treats foreign policy as if it was a plague and to his outlook, as well as many Americans outlooks, simply does not go past the horizon and possibly not past the water’s edge.

 

We can bet that should the Democrat candidate become the next President, they too will do little as they can in foreign policy. We need remember that the Democrat candidate will not likely be Hillary Clinton but more likely somebody not even announced as of yet. Ms. Clinton’s campaign van has the wheels flying off and the engine is about to quit. The van is driving down the road to oblivion. But what if it is the Republican candidate, you inquire. There we need to find out who will take the lead and which ones do not survive the first three or four actual primary votes. We can make some specific and general observations. Rand Paul is an isolationist libertarian who believes if the United States hurts nobody then nobody would target the United States. Of all the governors and ex-governors running, only Jeb Bush might be a President inclined to use military force and actually have an active foreign policy. Others have claimed that they will repair the United States relations with Israel as well as Egypt and Saudi Arabia largely undoing some of the changes made under President Obama. Still, such actions do not necessarily mean a return into Iraq to defeat ISIS unless it becomes a dire threat to the stability of the Middle East. Only Senator Marco Rubio has direct experience with foreign policies as he in on the Senate Intelligence Committee which gives him access beyond the average Senator under the need to know doctrines. Almost any Republican candidate becoming President would easily take four months to a year to become fully briefed on every hot-spot that the Pentagon had plans and counter plans and different options under each plan and time granted each. Such amounts of information is why the President has a Secretary of Defense whose staff is divided so they can divide their work and attend to each contingencies. Still, the final decisions and person who must form the overall foreign police and who has to call in the troops for action when deemed to be necessary lies with the President and the President alone. That is one of the reason it is said that it is lonely at the top. We still have no real available input that any of the Republican candidates would press for an interventionist approach to foreign policies.

 

Likely the most pressing foreign policy might already have their hands tied should President Obama make any Iran nuclear deal somehow into a treaty without gaining Congressional affirmation. Such a decade long deal would actually prevent the next administration from taking any actions without smoking gun style proof that Iran had broken the agreement but as the agreement includes steps all the way through twelve years with little margin for change in the terms or even the terminology during that time period with the Iranians presumably free to complete their desired goal of deliverable nuclear warheads and the ICBMs on which to place them after ten years according to President Obama’s own admission which would leave them at a minimum two years to produce as many weapons systems as they are able starting with an unknown amount of LEU (low enrichment Uranium) with which to work and all of that Uranium a simple two day’s processing to be made weapons grade HEU (highly enriched Uranium over 90% purity) and then they would be capable of molding the cores and producing actual weapons. All of this is a guess of what the eventual agreement will appear to say and Iranian compliance to the terms and inspection protocols as well as their answering numerous questions about previous work performed largely by the military which Iran insists is an unprecedented and unnecessary invasion of their privileges and privacies. So, when it comes to the Iranian nuclear program the next President may be acting with his hands tied and possibly looking at a negative response from a nuclear armed Iran claiming their dominion over Iraq and dismissing the need for United States interference in their area of control which they will claim includes Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and who knows where else by January 21, 2017 when the next President takes office. After Iran there will be other situations such as Russia and their low-grade war with the Ukraine and its possibilities, China and their expansion Islands being built and potentially taking territorial control semi-legally over the entire South China Sea giving them control over one of the most active shipping lanes in the world. Speaking of choke points for shipping, Iran already has menacing control over the Straits of Hormuz where almost one third of the world’s oil is shipped by tankers and may through their proxies in Yemen, Houthis can also threaten to control the Bab-el-Mandeb which would cut off the southern exit of the Red Sea making the Suez Canal unusable and the Israeli southern port to the orient and Africa blockaded, a casus belli which could lead to a state of declared war by Iran on Israel and Egypt as both would have their shipping access to the world impeded illegally as Iran would have no other excuse other than they could close all shipping. These are just the top three and none of these includes the ISIS threat which may grow to the point where Iran and ISIS meet on equal footing with ISIS having gained an Air Force even if of a limited nature, and tactics which are prone to working, at least working well against the Iraqi army. ISIS has had far less success against the Kurdish Militias such as the Peshmerga (literally “one who confronts death”) and the People’s Protection Units (known as the YPG). These have held the northeast parts of Syria having an astonishing turning point in the city of Kobanê as well as the northern third or so of Iraq where the Kurdish forces saved thousands of Yazidi and whose Yazidi Militias have joined ranks with the Kurdish Militias. We could continue to the other continents and their probabilities for causing distress but that would leave Antarctica as probably the only safe haven if you desired no strife, or at least not yet.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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