Iran, ISIS, and United Opposition to Israel

 

What has been missing from most analysts’ Middle East reports is that between ISIS and Iran we have, to use a term popular in modern analysis, a perfect storm. Graeme Wood reported on interviews with supporters of ISIS and what was revealed completely contradicted the approach President Obama has taken defining the number one problem driving support for ISIS to be a lack of economic opportunities. What was revealed instead is that they believe they are called by God to create a Caliphate that will ultimately lead to the apocalypse. Essentially, they are a death cult centered around their religion. They stressed their devout and all-encompassing belief that they are following the word of Allah and completing the will of Allah in order to bring on the Islamic version of the End of Days, a scenario very different and in very spectacular ways the opposite of the Christian belief in the End of Days. This is the Sunni Muslim impetus in our time right now to bring a world-wide apocalypse as quickly and completely as they are able and the driving minds behind ISIS are not simpletons but driven people who have displayed great command of technology and have developed, as noted by experts the world over, a highly technical video campaign using some of the latest effects and professional stylistic designs in their video campaign. President Obama and many others have sold the leadership of ISIS short and have grossly underestimated their capabilities.

 

With Iran we have a more well-known entity as we have been able to observe them since their 1979 rise to power in Iran, a rise to power greatly aided by then President Carter who stated that the Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini (Farsi: روح الله موسوی خمینی) was a man of the cloth and a decent man with whom the United States could work. President Carter basically equated a devout Shiite Muslim with Christianity and completely ignored the belief that Islam supersessionism means that Islam has replaced both Christianity, which Muslims accept was the supersessionism of Judaism, and as well Judaism and is the final revelation which disallows for any future revelation to be valid. There is a singular problem with both forms of supersessionism that is shared, the reestablishment of the Jewish state of Israel which both Christian and Islamic supersessionism claims is not possible as the Jews have been forsaken and cursed to travel the face of the earth nationless as there no longer exists the Covenant between G0d and Abraham as that Covenant was replaced by the Covenant with Jesus which has in turn according to Islam, was replaced by the Covenant with Mohammad according to each faith. Add to this the Iranian belief in the Twelfth Imam and you have another apocalyptical religious force in Iran.

 

Basically the world is facing two complimentary apocalyptical religious forces both competing for hegemonic preeminence in the Middle East and both having a central desire to extinguish the Jewish state of Israel both believing it to be an abomination to Allah. This comes at a time when the United States has taken a six year hiatus from participating constructively on the world’s stage. But even in remission, the United States is playing a central role in the form of an acquiescing power which will facilitate the nuclearization of Iran. The importance of this action must not be lost in our consideration of the immediate future. The most recent report from the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) paints a very bleak picture and displays the fact that the Western nations, the United Nations and much of the Middle East have at best an extremely opaque and blurred superficial knowledge about the state of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Their report told more about the obscuration by Iran than it did report on the actual existence of the Iranian program. A basic summary of the report would be to say that the world, and especially the Western nations, has almost no knowledge or understanding of the current abilities, size, scope or technological refinement of the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

 

The last glimpse the world had was almost eighteen months ago and then we were able to get an indication that the Iranians had achieved an advanced centrifuge which was six times as efficient as their previous model and they were very close to perfecting its use. Since then there has been rumors, rumors such that they carried some degree of weight and validity, that the Iranians had made another quantum leap in centrifuge development and designed an even faster and more capable centrifuge design and were in the process of installing these latest designs into their nuclear processing of uranium. The problem is that nowhere in the negotiations or in any IAEA report is there a sign of these centrifuges being installed. This begs a question; where are these latest and greatest centrifuges which we should have noted being installed and if we are unaware of their installation, then where is the uranium refinement being carried out with these newest centrifuges? This is a definitive indication that Iran has developed a secret nuclear enrichment system of installations and who knows what further developments are being carried out in this secretive parallel program. One matter which must be kept foremost in our minds is that the Western nations and the rest of the world have little if any knowledge of the amount of uranium Iran may be mining out of their own uranium mines and whether they have also perfected in the gasification of the uranium to uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) which is an essential development if Iran is to operate a secretive parallel nuclear program which could only be intended for weapons production. Iran might also be producing fuel rods for their Heavy-water reactor by refining uranium by smelting it into purified UO2 which could be used in the Arak reactor to produce plutonium. All of this is currently well beyond anything of which the IAEA or the Western intelligence agencies appear to have even a hint of understanding. Perhaps Iran really does not care about the negotiations or reaching any deal as their program is far beyond the understood level assumed in the P5+1 negotiations with Iran.

 

Western intelligence has decided that the Iranian nuclear program has not proceeded to develop new and more advanced facilities without reporting of their existence, much as the development of a nuclear trigger at the Parchin Military Complex was completed and all traces including the suspected buildings were completely destroyed and the area cleansed such that any inspection would be hard pressed to find any evidence should they actually gain admission to the area for an inspection. This research was all but completed before the activity at Parchin Military Complex had even been detected and suspicions aroused. Additionally, it was apparent that the actual announcement and the beginning of negotiation with Iran over their nuclear program by the Europeans, which predated the United States entry to the scene, was initiated revealing a complex and expansive nuclear program already in use. It was determined that Iran had been working on enrichment of uranium for very likely at least a decade before being discovered. This lack of reliable intelligence and the ability of the Iranians to conceal their actions from detection bode poorly for any reliable detection of new facilities being constructed. The last installation detected was the refining facility at Fordow, near the city of Qom, in 2012 which was only revealed after it had initiated refinement of uranium. The complex was still being completed but little was known about its level of development as it was constructed underground and beneath a mountain making detection more difficult. The level of complexity and capabilities of the Iranian program most definitely permits the assumption that Iran is capable of constructing a secretive base which is only made a higher probability due to the existence of natural caves which would remove much of the heavy work of building an underground complex within a mountain.

 

Simple truth is there is a potential for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech to a joint session of the United States Congress releasing information which will completely destroy any hope of a nuclear deal with Iran short of surrendering to the fact that Iran is, if not already the in the near future, capable of producing nuclear weapons and there is little which can be accomplished through the P5+1 negotiations as Iran has successfully deceived their adversaries lulling them into a false sense of security believing they had a proper assessment of the scope of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is the fear which has the White House in a panic. The fact that President Obama may be revealed to know that the negotiations have all been a ruse to stall any actions by the Western nations or Israel to cripple the Iranian nuclear sites with a military strike. The complete single-mindedness of the efforts by President Obama to find a peaceful way of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear state has been proven by the leaking vital information at the most crucial point of Israeli plans on at least three occasions which completely blew up destroying each attempt by Israel to use military force to destroy as much of the Iranian nuclear sites as they were able. This devious prevention by the White House of any and all efforts by Israel to address the nuclear weapons development sites by use of military force was in part just a further act by President Obama insisting that he can by the power of his voice, the influence of his words, the imposing of his will and the full effect of his karma can alter the world to his designs thus being a world molding power by his will alone. This faulty perception is not challenged by any advisors who remain in the White House and is in fact reinforced by sycophantic devotees surrounding the President. The proof of this has been the near constant parade of Secretaries of Defense where the people in that position receiving briefings which explain the realities including on Iran has frightened them each and every one that they attempted to shake President Obama’s faith in his ego being undeniable on the world stage and his ability by his presence to change realities. As intelligence released to Congress is mostly under the influence, or even control, by the White House, it is possible that the Congress has been denied much of the truth which is unflattering to the President. The fact that President Obama has no way of keeping the truths from Prime Minister Netanyahu and that the Israeli leader is about to upset the President’s apple cart and reveal the core problem which Iran truly poses is something the Ego in the White House cannot countenance as the President will be revealed to not have the fine robes of the Emperor and that the reality is that he is actually standing naked once robbed of his control of information.

 

That leads to how does a nuclear Iran change things and how does ISIS fit into these scenarios. The current understanding is that Iran is fighting against ISIS and is supporting their obedient puppet governments in Iraq, Syria and even Lebanon. Iran is about control, complete control. They see Saudi Arabia and its GCC, Egypt with President Sisi and his anti-terror programs, the United States simply due to its capabilities despite their being muted by the great President in the White House and please ignore the little man behind the curtain scared of being revealed for a fool, and of course Israel as the current power in the Middle East. Iran will still manage to gain the United States President’s accommodations as long as they make their argument appear to be aimed solely at Israel, as sacrifice the White House has already signaled they are more than willing to make. What is being assumed is that Iran would never ally with ISIS because one is Shiite and the other is Sunni and nary the twain shall meet. That assumption is dead wrong as can be proven by Iran and their partnership which has been reestablished with Hamas, a perfect definition of ISIS Lite. Should ISIS further establish their nascent initiatives in Gaza, Judea and Samaria and become preeminent replacing the Palestinian Authority and subsuming Hamas, or at least those of Hamas who are capable of passing their purity test which would still include most of the fighters from both Hamas and Islamic Jihad and potentially others as well, this would make ISIS the terror organization required to attack Israel. The only fly in this ointment is the probability for ISIS to reject any assistance from Iran viewing them as just another enemy and even worse, an apostate enemy. If ISIS instead decided that a temporary alliance with the Devil, Iran, then a bond of mutual objectives may be possible and once these two powers make such an arrangement there may be no preventing the apocalyptical eventuality they both desire. In many ways ISIS would be a better fit with Iran than is Hezballah or Hamas as ISIS shares the view of forcing the End Times through the creation of an apocalyptical war encompassing the entirety of the planet. Facing a nuclear armed Iran willing to share such devices for the obliteration of targets of common hatreds would be the stuff whose aftermath may look very much like many of those post apocalypse B-movies we have seen on late night television.

 

This is why the speech by Prime Minister Netanyahu before the joint session of Congress and his likely follow-up speech at the AIPAC Convention will be of unprecedented importance. One might equate the potential of these two speeches to the speeches given by Winston Churchill at the onset of World War II. What Prime Minister Netanyahu must avoid is belittling President Obama or making any claims that the President has been played for a fool by Iran. Instead Prime Minister Netanyahu must be seen to have constantly praised President Obama while offering him a new approach which will be more in-tune with the current reality and move him tactfully away from the disastrous path he currently walks. This is not the time to air grievances as we all also need the cooperation of President Obama and for him to dedicate at least the airpower and other capabilities of the United States. American boots on the ground can and should be avoided; at least initially as things will need to be assessed as everything develops. The President should be made to forfeit any plans he may be couching for a linking and exchange of ambassadors and opening of embassies with Iran and instead doing what must be done to prevent Iran from attaining their goals. Then the President must understand the level and extent of a threat ISIS has begun to assume and how they are gaining allies. The Congress will also need to understand the urgencies currently loose in the world and free to undermine all that allows for cooperative relations. The world is at the most definitive crossroads that it has ever faced. The price for making the wrong turn at this and the next three or four crossroads, forks in the road, will be the extinction of man as a technological and developing race into simply another steak in the food chain. Yes, it all really is that serious, and dire too. The blinders must come off and the path towards the preservation of our technological way of life through the wise applications of force now rather than waiting for the forces against modernity to throw the first volley, so to speak. Now, let each of us pray, concentrate, or give whatever form of supplication your beliefs may require in times that will test our souls, our civilizations, our freedoms, our development, our integrity as a human being who does have love for his brothers and sisters and knows forgiveness is not always the correct path, sometimes actions are required if we are to correct certain wrongs which plague our world and threaten us and all we hold dear.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

A Tale of Two Potential Conflicts

Of all the potential flashpoints existing in the world, we would like to compare and contrast two separate potential conflicts; the possible intervention in the political unrest in the Ukraine by Russia and the possibility that Israel might intervene to attempt to address and mute the several threats across numerous fronts including Hezballah, Hamas and their sponsor Iran. Where any Israeli action against the growing threats made out of Iran would also require that Israel to take into consideration how they would address the additional arms that Iran has direct influence and could turn loose to attack Israel utilizing the tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of rockets and missiles ranging through the gamut from Katyusha and Grad rockets to Scud, Fajr and Zelzal-2s. The questions in each case run the full range from what would be the reactions of the United Nations to reactions from the major powers and other significant groups and entities.

 

Starting with the possibility of a Russian intervention in the Ukraine, what are the various scenarios and resultant ramifications. It is very possible that the Russians will be able to claim that their intervention is in response to requests from the people of the Ukraine who saw the overthrow of the government as a direct threat to their interests and safety. Such a request could easily be made by the majority Russian citizens living in the eastern and southern provinces of the Ukraine who have made clear their preference for the Ukraine to align with Russia over aligning with the European Union. There are reports that the Russians have placed a large force on their border with the Ukraine including fighter and other aircraft wings which would be necessary to assist with any military intervention. United States President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and Secretary of Defense Hagel have all made statements warning the Russians that the United States Administration is opposed and demands that they not enter or otherwise interfere with the political process currently occurring in the Ukraine. The odds that Russian President Putin will heed such a warning and have it influence his decisions are basically nil. Much of this has to do with the complete lack of the United States to back earlier warnings given to Syria when American President Obama announced his red-line and serious consequences on Syrian President al-Assad against his deploying chemical weapons. The complete ineffectiveness of the American threat of serious consequences resulting in dithering and equivocation by President Obama leading to inaction and a stalemate which was almost painful to witness and was thankfully brought to a definitive end when President Putin intervened proposing the confiscation and destruction of al-Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal granting President Obama a way to climb down from the embarrassment of being caught on his own petard.

 

Should the Russians intervene in the Ukraine the world is most likely to sit on their hands and not offer even the mildest rebuke. The truth is that the Russians, especially under President Putin’s leadership, are sufficiently feared and retain sufficient threat to cause any sane and reasoned person or nation to carefully consider if the Ukraine is really worth their potentially confronting the Russians and challenging President Putin. Furthermore, as the Russians are one of the permanent nations on the Security Council and possess a full right of vetoing any actions or proposals presented for consideration by that body, there is absolutely no possibility to condemn any Russian actions in the Security Council. The possibility of Russia being rebuked by the General Assembly is one of the most laughable proposals anybody could ever make. The General Assembly often appears like it exists for denouncing the United States, Israel and even the European nations while forgiving any transgressions by the entirety of the non-free and third world nations. The end result of a Russian intervention in the Ukraine would likely be very similar to the results decades ago when the Soviet Union rolled tanks and troops into the rebellious republic of Czechoslovakia on August 21, 1968, bringing the reforms and attempt to move out from under the Soviet thumb by Czechoslovakia with nary a significantly effective complaint from the entire world. Putting it succinctly, Russia could walk into the Ukraine and annex the entire nation reestablishing Russian control of the entirety of the Ukraine and outside of any demonstrations by Ukrainians there would be little effective protest. The resistance by any Ukrainians would be short lived and ended with whatever brutality was deemed necessary as that is the Putin way.

 

In the other situation, the cacophony of denunciations and demands for the world to completely condemn Israel would be deafening and seemingly universal. There would be a race between the different nations to bring condemnations of Israel before the General Assembly and the Security Council would be in emergency session before the sun set and possibly before the jets returned from a strike on Iran. There would be claims upon claims quoting International Law as requiring the condemnation of Israel for their wanton assault on another United Nations member nation. The justification which Israel could offer would never be given the slightest consideration in the rush to condemnation. But is such condemnation appropriate or would Israel have a right and justifiable reasoning behind such an attack that would be backed by International Law? Surprisingly to most, the answer is a definitive yes. The Iranian leadership including Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini, numerous Imams, many of the Ministers from the Iranian Parliament and numerous other members of the leadership both political and religious have publically called repeatedly for the annihilation of Israel. There have been large assemblies of Iranians, often weekly on Friday after services where the Imam likely gave a sermon demonizing Israel and calling for Jihad to reclaim Islamic lands, who chanted in unison repeating the chant often spoken from the podium by a high government or religious official calling out, “Death to Israel” as well as religious chants proclaiming the supremacy of Allah and their dedication to serve Allah often by actions to destroy the Jewish State. Speeches given by leading government leaders at parades and other events which almost always include martial demonstrations such as parading missiles on launchers in parades these leaders claim that the military strength displayed will soon be loosed on Israel destroying the Zionist Entity. These provocations, if they can be believed as actual statements of intent and the probability of their being a true forecast of actions exists, then Israel would have sufficient cause to attack Iran to destroy the Iranian ability to make war upon Israel under International Law. That is the crux of the argument behind the threats to strike the Iranian nuclear sites and the same arguments would also hold for an Israeli strike on Iranian military targets.

 

Where Israel would face a series of severe threats would be from the terror forces which are available to carry out any Iranian calls for attacks on Israel. These include minimally Hezballah and Hamas and could also include terror forces in the areas under the control of the Palestinian Authority, Judea and Samaria, also called the West Bank. This very likely was one of the subjects which was discussed when Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas visited Tehran, Iran recently. Such would most definitely have come up if Chairman Abbas was requesting any funding or other assistance from the Iranians, something which is very likely as Abbas appears to be incapable of visiting anywhere and not begging for funding. Where Israel would be hard-pressed in making an argument for attacking the Palestinian Authority areas, they would easily be able to make a convincing argument concerning both Hezballah and Hamas as both have left no doubt that their intent is the destruction of Israel and the genocidal slaughter of every Jew, often referred to as Zionists, residing in Israel no matter their political persuasions. The reality of any Israeli attack is that you would be able to count the number of nations that would actively support the Israelis would likely be countable on your two hands. Bless United States, the Czech Republic, Panama, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau and especially Canada (with a salute to Prime Minister Harper). These were the only nations which found the nerve and good conscience to vote against recognition of the Palestinian Authority as a non-member state. Israel would face a boycott from the European Union and the Arab League would be red-faced in angry denouncements. Israel might not even be able to count on having the United States defend them with their veto in the Security Council. It might even be prudent for Israel to resign their membership in the United Nations which for the vast majority of its recent history has been the place Israel could go to be denigrated and denounced for her audacity to exist. The differences between a Russian military intervention in the Ukraine and Israel acting in her own self-interest and defense would be diametrically opposite in act and reasoning. Some things are only remarkable in their obvious predictability as in their lack of moral conscience and convictions.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Hagel’s Syria Conundrum

United States Secretary of Defense has a dilemma concerning supporting the Syrian rebels fighting to unseat President Bashir al-Assad and his oppressive Alawite regime; he is unsure where the secular forces are that he wishes to aid. Anybody familiar with the Middle East or who had paid attention to the various events unfolding in what was euphemistically referred to as the Arab Spring would have predicted the events to come in the Syrian civil war right from the start. Even Tunisia which likely had the easiest transition from their former oppressive leader to an elected oppressive leadership depicted the direction that every single Arab uprising was destined to travel. They would be initiated by secular libertine interests only to be replaced by populist Islamic rulers either from the Muslim Brotherhood or possibly aligned with al-Qaeda who would be just as oppressive and economically depressing as their former dictators. Egypt was the fortunate state as it has actually returned to its military rule which, though far from idyllic, is far more accommodating of a plurality culture than the Islamists who support oppressive and destructive intentions for all non-Muslim segments of their societies demanding a Dhimmi existence at best and eradication at worst. Syria simply lasted long enough in its revolutionary struggle for the Islamists to be required to actually fight for their preeminent positions because the secular revolt proved insufficient to oust a very tenacious Bashir al-Assad. Thus, in Syria the cat is out of the bag and it has become obvious even to those who most stubbornly desired to never see the reality, that the change which was to come in the Middle East from the more accurately described Arab Winter was a transition from nationalist oppressive dictatorships to Islamic oppressive dictatorships. So, now poor Secretary of Defense Hagel is left with aid to equip the secular resistance in Syria and nobody or place to ship it too where the Islamist forces would end up the recipients.

 

Exactly how did this dilemma come about? Initially the revolution in Syria consisted of the Free Syrian Army which was pluralistic and fighting for a secular western style governance in Syria just as the secular forces had risen up for freedom and liberty in Tunisia and Egypt and the rest. This was the high point for the secularists as they were at their peak strength with the largest forces they would muster in their efforts to overthrow Syria’s dictatorial government. Virtually everybody who was going to join their cause and fight for an open and inclusive society were enlisted and either they were going to win a quick and easy victory or die trying. Well, they did not win a quick victory but did begin to die trying and as they did their forces began to dwindle as there were no reserves from which to draw replacement troops. The Islamists, in this case Sunni in particular, realized that the secularists were going to be unable to win this revolution for them and were required to grab the opportunity offered them and try to unseat a wounded Assad or simply permit Assad to win and then unleash his revenge on a hapless nation. They chose to take their shot at removing Assad and replacing him the old fashion way, by sheer force. As time wound on it should have become painfully obvious to the Western interests who were backing the secularist Free Syrian Army that there would soon be nobody left to aid or at least such a small and ineffectual force as to be useless and in an impossible position caught between the Islamist forces and Assad’s Syrian military might.

 

So, what are the libertine forces from the Western nations to do facing this new reality of all this aid and nobody to receive it? The one suggestion we might wish for them to entertain would actually make for their gaining an advantage out of two less than promising difficulties. The one way that they can come out winners with an ally in place, at least for the time being as nothing is guaranteed to last eternally, would be to recognize the Kurdish forces in the area bordering Iraq and Syria and recognize a new liberated group who desperately want and most definitely deserve their own nation. The British had promised the Kurds their own nation which would have included a small section of eastern Turkey, areas of northeastern Syria and the northern third of Iraq but, as the British were want to do when redrawing the lines of the Middle East after World War I, they broke their promise just as they carved up three quarters of what was set aside for the Jewish State to form a Palestinian Arab state ruled by the Hashemite allies called Jordan, the British enlarged Iraq to include almost all of what would have been Kurdistan simply so the Getty family could exploit the northern Iraqi oil fields with the blessings of their friend whom they placed to rule Iraq in their interest. So, why not do the right thing for a huge change and set to rights an exploitive decision by the colonialist powers that used self-serving interests to guide them and paid service to their greed rather than doing that which they knew was right and promised and forgo some amount of profit. Here is your way out of this predicament and an honorable path as well, which is why nobody in Washington, London or Paris will ever think of setting promises kept even if at a later date.

 

Beyond the Cusp