Beyond the Cusp

February 22, 2015

Iran, ISIS, and United Opposition to Israel

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What has been missing from most analysts’ Middle East reports is that between ISIS and Iran we have, to use a term popular in modern analysis, a perfect storm. Graeme Wood reported on interviews with supporters of ISIS and what was revealed completely contradicted the approach President Obama has taken defining the number one problem driving support for ISIS to be a lack of economic opportunities. What was revealed instead is that they believe they are called by God to create a Caliphate that will ultimately lead to the apocalypse. Essentially, they are a death cult centered around their religion. They stressed their devout and all-encompassing belief that they are following the word of Allah and completing the will of Allah in order to bring on the Islamic version of the End of Days, a scenario very different and in very spectacular ways the opposite of the Christian belief in the End of Days. This is the Sunni Muslim impetus in our time right now to bring a world-wide apocalypse as quickly and completely as they are able and the driving minds behind ISIS are not simpletons but driven people who have displayed great command of technology and have developed, as noted by experts the world over, a highly technical video campaign using some of the latest effects and professional stylistic designs in their video campaign. President Obama and many others have sold the leadership of ISIS short and have grossly underestimated their capabilities.

 

With Iran we have a more well-known entity as we have been able to observe them since their 1979 rise to power in Iran, a rise to power greatly aided by then President Carter who stated that the Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini (Farsi: روح الله موسوی خمینی) was a man of the cloth and a decent man with whom the United States could work. President Carter basically equated a devout Shiite Muslim with Christianity and completely ignored the belief that Islam supersessionism means that Islam has replaced both Christianity, which Muslims accept was the supersessionism of Judaism, and as well Judaism and is the final revelation which disallows for any future revelation to be valid. There is a singular problem with both forms of supersessionism that is shared, the reestablishment of the Jewish state of Israel which both Christian and Islamic supersessionism claims is not possible as the Jews have been forsaken and cursed to travel the face of the earth nationless as there no longer exists the Covenant between G0d and Abraham as that Covenant was replaced by the Covenant with Jesus which has in turn according to Islam, was replaced by the Covenant with Mohammad according to each faith. Add to this the Iranian belief in the Twelfth Imam and you have another apocalyptical religious force in Iran.

 

Basically the world is facing two complimentary apocalyptical religious forces both competing for hegemonic preeminence in the Middle East and both having a central desire to extinguish the Jewish state of Israel both believing it to be an abomination to Allah. This comes at a time when the United States has taken a six year hiatus from participating constructively on the world’s stage. But even in remission, the United States is playing a central role in the form of an acquiescing power which will facilitate the nuclearization of Iran. The importance of this action must not be lost in our consideration of the immediate future. The most recent report from the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) paints a very bleak picture and displays the fact that the Western nations, the United Nations and much of the Middle East have at best an extremely opaque and blurred superficial knowledge about the state of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Their report told more about the obscuration by Iran than it did report on the actual existence of the Iranian program. A basic summary of the report would be to say that the world, and especially the Western nations, has almost no knowledge or understanding of the current abilities, size, scope or technological refinement of the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

 

The last glimpse the world had was almost eighteen months ago and then we were able to get an indication that the Iranians had achieved an advanced centrifuge which was six times as efficient as their previous model and they were very close to perfecting its use. Since then there has been rumors, rumors such that they carried some degree of weight and validity, that the Iranians had made another quantum leap in centrifuge development and designed an even faster and more capable centrifuge design and were in the process of installing these latest designs into their nuclear processing of uranium. The problem is that nowhere in the negotiations or in any IAEA report is there a sign of these centrifuges being installed. This begs a question; where are these latest and greatest centrifuges which we should have noted being installed and if we are unaware of their installation, then where is the uranium refinement being carried out with these newest centrifuges? This is a definitive indication that Iran has developed a secret nuclear enrichment system of installations and who knows what further developments are being carried out in this secretive parallel program. One matter which must be kept foremost in our minds is that the Western nations and the rest of the world have little if any knowledge of the amount of uranium Iran may be mining out of their own uranium mines and whether they have also perfected in the gasification of the uranium to uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) which is an essential development if Iran is to operate a secretive parallel nuclear program which could only be intended for weapons production. Iran might also be producing fuel rods for their Heavy-water reactor by refining uranium by smelting it into purified UO2 which could be used in the Arak reactor to produce plutonium. All of this is currently well beyond anything of which the IAEA or the Western intelligence agencies appear to have even a hint of understanding. Perhaps Iran really does not care about the negotiations or reaching any deal as their program is far beyond the understood level assumed in the P5+1 negotiations with Iran.

 

Western intelligence has decided that the Iranian nuclear program has not proceeded to develop new and more advanced facilities without reporting of their existence, much as the development of a nuclear trigger at the Parchin Military Complex was completed and all traces including the suspected buildings were completely destroyed and the area cleansed such that any inspection would be hard pressed to find any evidence should they actually gain admission to the area for an inspection. This research was all but completed before the activity at Parchin Military Complex had even been detected and suspicions aroused. Additionally, it was apparent that the actual announcement and the beginning of negotiation with Iran over their nuclear program by the Europeans, which predated the United States entry to the scene, was initiated revealing a complex and expansive nuclear program already in use. It was determined that Iran had been working on enrichment of uranium for very likely at least a decade before being discovered. This lack of reliable intelligence and the ability of the Iranians to conceal their actions from detection bode poorly for any reliable detection of new facilities being constructed. The last installation detected was the refining facility at Fordow, near the city of Qom, in 2012 which was only revealed after it had initiated refinement of uranium. The complex was still being completed but little was known about its level of development as it was constructed underground and beneath a mountain making detection more difficult. The level of complexity and capabilities of the Iranian program most definitely permits the assumption that Iran is capable of constructing a secretive base which is only made a higher probability due to the existence of natural caves which would remove much of the heavy work of building an underground complex within a mountain.

 

Simple truth is there is a potential for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech to a joint session of the United States Congress releasing information which will completely destroy any hope of a nuclear deal with Iran short of surrendering to the fact that Iran is, if not already the in the near future, capable of producing nuclear weapons and there is little which can be accomplished through the P5+1 negotiations as Iran has successfully deceived their adversaries lulling them into a false sense of security believing they had a proper assessment of the scope of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is the fear which has the White House in a panic. The fact that President Obama may be revealed to know that the negotiations have all been a ruse to stall any actions by the Western nations or Israel to cripple the Iranian nuclear sites with a military strike. The complete single-mindedness of the efforts by President Obama to find a peaceful way of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear state has been proven by the leaking vital information at the most crucial point of Israeli plans on at least three occasions which completely blew up destroying each attempt by Israel to use military force to destroy as much of the Iranian nuclear sites as they were able. This devious prevention by the White House of any and all efforts by Israel to address the nuclear weapons development sites by use of military force was in part just a further act by President Obama insisting that he can by the power of his voice, the influence of his words, the imposing of his will and the full effect of his karma can alter the world to his designs thus being a world molding power by his will alone. This faulty perception is not challenged by any advisors who remain in the White House and is in fact reinforced by sycophantic devotees surrounding the President. The proof of this has been the near constant parade of Secretaries of Defense where the people in that position receiving briefings which explain the realities including on Iran has frightened them each and every one that they attempted to shake President Obama’s faith in his ego being undeniable on the world stage and his ability by his presence to change realities. As intelligence released to Congress is mostly under the influence, or even control, by the White House, it is possible that the Congress has been denied much of the truth which is unflattering to the President. The fact that President Obama has no way of keeping the truths from Prime Minister Netanyahu and that the Israeli leader is about to upset the President’s apple cart and reveal the core problem which Iran truly poses is something the Ego in the White House cannot countenance as the President will be revealed to not have the fine robes of the Emperor and that the reality is that he is actually standing naked once robbed of his control of information.

 

That leads to how does a nuclear Iran change things and how does ISIS fit into these scenarios. The current understanding is that Iran is fighting against ISIS and is supporting their obedient puppet governments in Iraq, Syria and even Lebanon. Iran is about control, complete control. They see Saudi Arabia and its GCC, Egypt with President Sisi and his anti-terror programs, the United States simply due to its capabilities despite their being muted by the great President in the White House and please ignore the little man behind the curtain scared of being revealed for a fool, and of course Israel as the current power in the Middle East. Iran will still manage to gain the United States President’s accommodations as long as they make their argument appear to be aimed solely at Israel, as sacrifice the White House has already signaled they are more than willing to make. What is being assumed is that Iran would never ally with ISIS because one is Shiite and the other is Sunni and nary the twain shall meet. That assumption is dead wrong as can be proven by Iran and their partnership which has been reestablished with Hamas, a perfect definition of ISIS Lite. Should ISIS further establish their nascent initiatives in Gaza, Judea and Samaria and become preeminent replacing the Palestinian Authority and subsuming Hamas, or at least those of Hamas who are capable of passing their purity test which would still include most of the fighters from both Hamas and Islamic Jihad and potentially others as well, this would make ISIS the terror organization required to attack Israel. The only fly in this ointment is the probability for ISIS to reject any assistance from Iran viewing them as just another enemy and even worse, an apostate enemy. If ISIS instead decided that a temporary alliance with the Devil, Iran, then a bond of mutual objectives may be possible and once these two powers make such an arrangement there may be no preventing the apocalyptical eventuality they both desire. In many ways ISIS would be a better fit with Iran than is Hezballah or Hamas as ISIS shares the view of forcing the End Times through the creation of an apocalyptical war encompassing the entirety of the planet. Facing a nuclear armed Iran willing to share such devices for the obliteration of targets of common hatreds would be the stuff whose aftermath may look very much like many of those post apocalypse B-movies we have seen on late night television.

 

This is why the speech by Prime Minister Netanyahu before the joint session of Congress and his likely follow-up speech at the AIPAC Convention will be of unprecedented importance. One might equate the potential of these two speeches to the speeches given by Winston Churchill at the onset of World War II. What Prime Minister Netanyahu must avoid is belittling President Obama or making any claims that the President has been played for a fool by Iran. Instead Prime Minister Netanyahu must be seen to have constantly praised President Obama while offering him a new approach which will be more in-tune with the current reality and move him tactfully away from the disastrous path he currently walks. This is not the time to air grievances as we all also need the cooperation of President Obama and for him to dedicate at least the airpower and other capabilities of the United States. American boots on the ground can and should be avoided; at least initially as things will need to be assessed as everything develops. The President should be made to forfeit any plans he may be couching for a linking and exchange of ambassadors and opening of embassies with Iran and instead doing what must be done to prevent Iran from attaining their goals. Then the President must understand the level and extent of a threat ISIS has begun to assume and how they are gaining allies. The Congress will also need to understand the urgencies currently loose in the world and free to undermine all that allows for cooperative relations. The world is at the most definitive crossroads that it has ever faced. The price for making the wrong turn at this and the next three or four crossroads, forks in the road, will be the extinction of man as a technological and developing race into simply another steak in the food chain. Yes, it all really is that serious, and dire too. The blinders must come off and the path towards the preservation of our technological way of life through the wise applications of force now rather than waiting for the forces against modernity to throw the first volley, so to speak. Now, let each of us pray, concentrate, or give whatever form of supplication your beliefs may require in times that will test our souls, our civilizations, our freedoms, our development, our integrity as a human being who does have love for his brothers and sisters and knows forgiveness is not always the correct path, sometimes actions are required if we are to correct certain wrongs which plague our world and threaten us and all we hold dear.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

January 18, 2013

United States Abdicates Responsibility to Act on Syrian Chemical Weapons

Despite the intense coverage given to United States President Barack Obama making a speech where he insisted that the United States considered Syrian President Bashir Assad’s military stores of chemical weapons to be a serious threat and was being treated as a paramount subject being taken seriously by the United States, follow up after the speech has left doubts. The President stressed that the United States military was monitoring the Syrian WMDs and would act should Bashir Assad use these illegal weapons in his desperation in the Syrian civil war and that such use would be crossing a red line which President Obama stated its crossing would force a strong response from the United States. The President’s comments were made subsequent to and in addition to United States Defense Secretary Leon Panetta who was quoted responding to the eventuality of Assad’s government being toppled leaving the chemical weapons stores unsecured, “I think the greater concern right now is what steps does the international community take to make sure that when Assad comes down, that there is a process and procedure to make sure we get our hands on securing those sites. That, I think, is the greater challenge right now.” When pressed to clarify if Secretary Panetta responded, “We’re not talking about ground troops. You always have to keep the possibility that, if there is a peaceful transition and international organizations get involved, that they might ask for assistance in that situation. But in a hostile situation, we’re not planning for that.” Panetta insistence that any future U.S. military role in Syria would only come about if a new government asked for assistance hinted at the disconnect between the stated stress over the serious threat posed by the existing chemical weapons and the lack of commitment by the President Obama and his Administration to taking any responsibility for securing these dangerous WMDs except by voluntary invitation, a highly unlikely scenario.

Further comments from President Obama and Secretary Panetta have noted the extreme difficulty in being able to detect whether chemical weapons have been employed and that in order to assure such use would require intense monitoring which is beyond the level that the President is comfortable with allocating. The main concept coming from President Obama appears to be more aligned with finding reasons why the United States cannot be found culpable in any failure to prevent Syrian Dictator Assad from using his stores of chemical weapons. In a further step in that direction, the United States has quietly behind the scenes tasked Turkey and Jordan with the responsibility of determining whether or not Bashir Assad uses his chemical weapons and should the need arise tasking them with stepping in to take responsibility for securing the chemical weapons. Considering that the Syrian arsenal of chemical weapons stores is estimated to be between three-hundred and four-hundred metric tons, it would take more resources than Turkey and Jordan have readily available even if combined. Only the United States, Russia, China, and possibly a few more States would easily be able to assemble the necessary equipment, troops, trained personnel in ABC weapons handling, transport assets, secure storage and the other miscellaneous abilities necessitated to secure and relocate the Syrian stores for subsequent disposal. It is simply irresponsible for the United States to sidestep any responsibility for the securing of these extremely dangerous weapons which if mishandled could cause massive casualties and untold misery destroying all life over a wide area should an accident occur. This is the critical point where President Obama’s position of leading from behind and refusing to ever be up front taking responsibility for any situation no matter how serious the potential for disaster which the United States taking the lead could avoid. This is the result of a world that apparently will be without any assist or influence from the United States going forward. This will show us exactly what a world would be if run by the United Nations.

The initial sign that Bashir Assad may have begun to utilize some of his lesser level chemical weapons has already been detected. The initial theory is that the chemical weapon utilized by President Assad loyalists was a chemical weapon called Agent 15, known also by its NATO code BZ. From what research we have been able to determine that Agent 15 is at the lesser end of the chemical weapons capabilities with the capabilities slightly stronger than CX, a strong form of tear gas. When questions were asked as to the potency of Agent 15, doctors who had treated the affected people attributed five deaths to the use of Agent 15 which makes it far more lethal than tear gas which is a nonfatal class of chemical dispersant utilized for crowd control. Still, despite the reported deaths, the United States has made no comment and despite a leaked communique from the United States Consul General in Istanbul, Scott Frederic Kilner, to State Department in Washington which outlined the results of the consulate investigation into reports from inside Syria indicating chemical weapons had been used in Homs on Dec. 23, 2012. After such a refusal to act or even demand Assad cease use of chemical weapons will be seen by Assad and his military commanders as tacit approval to go forward and use even stronger chemical weapons escalating until he gets a reaction. Should this trend be tested and continue with United States President Obama’s tendency to vacillate and equivocate taking painfully long to reach even the most obvious of decisions, the world had best take the lead and not depend on the United States to act or expect Assad to fully implement the use of his chemical weapons stores as soon as he feels that it is use them or lose everything. The results from Assad taking such desperate measures will rest on all who could have acted without facing impossible retributions and have prevented the thousands of deaths which will result. The worst case scenario would be if the sole country which chose to act to prevent Assad from committing a near genocide against the Syrian people was Israel as should it fall to Israel to stop Assad would very probably initiate an immeasurable conflagration as numerous Arab and Muslim countries would react with the intent of punishing Israel for her aggression against another Arab Muslim ruler. Does anyone think it would be otherwise?

Beyond the Cusp

October 31, 2012

Benghazi Should Signal a Warning for Israel

We have heard the same platitudes whenever the topic of his support, or lack thereof, for Israel is posed, that he has Israel’s back and that Israel is an important ally. Immediately after and for quite some time after the hostile and fatal attacks were reported from Benghazi, Libya the President and many of the highest officials in the Administration tried to obfuscate the truths with stories of a U-tube video caused riot which became uncontrollable and overwhelmed security forces leading to the destruction of the Consulate resulting in the deaths of our Libya Ambassador and three other personnel along with other embellishments on this story. When this fabrication disintegrated when the truth finally shone through, President Obama was asked by KUSA’s Kyle Clark, “Were they denied requests for help during the attack?” His reply was another example of avoidance but still was revealing when examined more closely. President Obama’s exact words were, “Number one, make sure that we are securing our personnel and doing whatever we need to. Number two, we’re going to investigate exactly what happened so that it doesn’t happen again. Number three, find out who did this so we can bring them to justice. And I guarantee you that everyone in the State Department, our military, the CIA, you name it, had number one priority making sure that people were safe.” Obama went further stating, “These were our folks and we’re going to find out exactly what happened. But what we’re also going to do is make sure that we are identifying those who carried out these terrible attacks.”

The terror strike, and that is what the truth revealed once the air was cleared of all the superfluous distractions and outright lies, has revealed further truths which remain unexplained and almost beyond belief for a vast number of Americans and friends of America around the world. The facts revealed a story of two unbelievable brave and honorable (former which I refrain from saying as once a Seal, forever a Seal) Navy Seals, Glen Doherty and Tyrone Woods, disregarded the orders to stand down and hoofed it the mile or so to the Consulate building and retrieved the remaining personnel and escorted them to the CIA safe house and to safety likely saving these lives. After the Consulate building had been destroyed the terrorists pursued those who had been pulled from certain death by two exemplary human beings and assaulted the Safe House. These two Navy Seals, their names cannot be said or praised too much for their actions need to be honored and remembered, Glen Doherty and Tyrone Woods, then spent the next several hours defending the Safe House and the people within. This battle all told lasted approximately seven hours. That bears repeating, the attack lasted seven hours while for the whole seven hours assistance was on line and simply awaiting the order a mere five hundred miles away, a mere two hours from coming to the rescue and reinforce the vastly outnumbered Seals. The same can be said for air close support in the form of a AC-130 Spectre which could have completely changed the entire state of the field of battle all by itself; such is the firepower of one of these aircraft. (If you are unfamiliar with the capabilities of this magnificent close support aircraft, it would be worth your while to do a search and watch some videos of this unprecedented game-changer.) The truth is that these American patriots were left out to the ravages of this terror attack. It has been reported that their appeals for relief and backup were denied, a denial which had to originate from very high in the Obama Administration, if not from President Obama himself. Hopefully, someday the complete truths will be revealed and reported to the American public and the world. But what does any of this have to do with Israel?

Despite the language, gratitude and praise shown to President Obama and his words of support by Prime Minister Netanyahu and others in high position within the ruling coalition, one can safely assume there are doubts as to exactly how much President Obama could be counted upon for support when the crisis is occurring and things may appear dire. These doubts have been validated by the numerous actions of disrespect shown to Prime Minister Netanyahu and other officials have received from the Obama Administration. There have been leaks of critical information concerning Israeli maneuvers and precautionary steps taken in preparation for a possible future conflict with Iran on more than one occasion, the most grievous of these was information concerning Israeli leasing the use of two idled airfields in Azerbaijan which border Iran to the north and would have provided Israeli pilots a landing place should they have any difficulties which would have made returning to Israel highly difficult if not impossible. There have also been the very public displays of conflict over whether it would be wise to set a “red line” that if crossed by Iran would trigger the initiation of the military option to bring an end to the Iranian nuclear program. Prime Minister Netanyahu desires a strict and well defined position leaving little to no doubt at what point there would be a military intervention while President Obama favors leaving such undefined and emphasizes his complete faith in the inevitability of sanctions being sufficient to prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons. These disagreements and opposing views towards taking tangible actions regarding Iran are sufficient on their own to make any military support from President Obama questionable at best. Add into the mix the fact that President Obama was reluctant to the point of inaction when Americans were under direct assault by terrorist forces and any Israeli leader would have to believe that he would not receive any assistance from the United States should hostilities with Iran develop, even if such actions were initiated by Iran.

On another front, the so-called Israeli/Palestinian peace talks President Obama has through his words and actions severely undermined the Israeli position. President Obama invented the idea of a building freeze even unto the inclusion of all of Jerusalem. President Obama went further than any of his predecessors by stating that the negotiations over boarders between Israel and a future Palestinian state should use the 1967 Green Line as the basis for borders despite the facts that these Armistice Lines had never been construed, even by the Arab World, to have any meaning or implications about borders. That has now forever changed. All of President Obama’s demands thus far have been almost universally aimed at Israel while rarely making any demands or stipulations on Mahmoud Abbas or the Palestinian Authority. The sole limit which the President made any large measure of reprimand on the Palestinians was their attempt to be declared a member nation of the United Nations which required a super majority vote of the Security Council where the United States holds the power of veto. Still, it was not until days, maybe a week or so, before the vote was to be requested before President Obama finally declared the intent to use the United States veto power. Had he made this known from the start, then the entire posturing and parading by Mahmoud Abbas demonizing Israel at stops all over the globe could have been prevented. Much of this lackluster support of Israel closely mirrors the lack of support given the Americans under terrorist attack in Benghazi. As such, what should Israel expect in the form of actual military assistance from the United States under President Obama’s leadership? One last item to remember, we have since found out that even though President Obama made the infinitely difficult decision to have Osama bin Laden assassinated, it took him as much as six months of brooding over the entirety of risks and possible ramifications before allowing the assault on the bin Laden compound to go forward. Israel under attack from Iran or any combination of her neighbors would likely, from past experiences, not have anywhere near six months, more like six days which may be beyond President Obama’s ability to carefully weigh the situation thoroughly and reach a conclusion and even then the conclusion being favorable for Israel is not guaranteed.

Beyond the Cusp

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