Beyond the Cusp

June 13, 2015

A Chance America Riding Off Into the Sunset

Filed under: 2016 Elections,24/7 News Reporting,Absolutism,Act of War,Administration,al-Qaeda,American People,American People Voice Opinion,Amnesty,Appeasement,Appointment,Armed Services,Bab-el-Mandeb,Bill Clinton,Blue Water Navy,Budget,Cabinet,China,Civilization,Class Warfare,Congress,Constitutional Government,Covert Surveillance,Coverup,Defense Department,Democracy,Democrat National Convention,Department of Defense,Ditherer in Chief,Domestic NGOs,Drones,Ecology Lobby,Economic Growth,Economy,Egypt,Electability,Elections,Elizabeth Warren,Employment,Enforcement,Equal Opportunity,Equal Outcome,Equal Rights,Equal Treatment,Europe,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Extreme Leftist,Extreme Right,Federal Government,Foreign Aid,Foreign NGOs,Foreign Trade,GDP,George H W Bush,George W. Bush,Government,Government Waste,Government Worker,Green Businesses,Green Economy,Guard Border,Health Care,History,House of Representatives,Humanitarian Aid,Illegal Immigration,Immigrant,Immigration,Income,Increased Spending,Individual Right to Privacy,Ineffective Sanctions,Inflation,Infrastructure,Internal Pressures,Internal Revenue Service,Intifada,Investment in the Future,Iran,Iraq,IRS,ISIS,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Jerusalem,Jobs,Keynesian Economics,Kurdish Militias,Kurds,Leftist Pressures,Livable Wage,Local Government,Main Stream Media,Mainstream Media,Meaning of Peace,Media,Military,Military Intervention,Minimum Wage,Murder Americans,Nationalist,Nationalist Pressures,NATO,Neglection of Duty,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Osama Bin Laden,Peace Process,Pentagon,Peshmerga Militias,Politicized Findings,Politics,Poverty,President,President Obama,President Vladimir Putin,Quantitative Easing,Rand Paul,Record Vote,Register to Vote,Regulations,Remove Sanctions,Repatriation,Republic,Republican National Convention,Resolution,Roman Empire,Russia,Sanctions,Secular Interests,Security Council,Senate,Sequestration,Socialism,South China Sea,South China Sea,Spending Cuts,Standard of Living,State Legislature,Suez Canal,Syria,Taqiyya,Taxes,Terror,Threat of War,Trade,Ukraine,Unemployment,Union Interests,United Nations,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,US Air Force,US Army,US Marines,US Navy,Validate Elections,Vlad the Invader,Voting,Warrantless Searches,Wealth,Wealth Redistribution,World War III,World Without Zionism or America,Yemen,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:09 AM
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There has been speculation about what role the United States will play on the world’s stage as threats abound of various severities and natures almost everywhere one looks and still we hear from United States President Obama that he awaits final strategy and complete plans laid out before him from the Pentagon before he can act. This excuse from President Obama for not committing to some plan of action sounds unrealistic, especially as it is well known even personally after having served in the United States Army, the Pentagon has plans, War Scenarios, for near any contingency which might arise. This makes President Obama’s excuse of not having any plans before him sound quite lame. Even had the Pentagon not had an exact battle plan in place when ISIS first reared their ugly heads and started chopping heads, especially since some belonged to the United States, you can bet the Pentagon went to their files and had cobbled together six ways come Sunday for dealing with ISIS which probably had added contingencies for removing Bashir al-Assad from power and potentially addressing the Iranian nuclear issue as well. The one thing is, they were not short of was plans. The only thing necessary would be for the President to choose one and they would be implementing within forty-eight hours. Each set of plans would have in the full layout exactly which units were trained for that exact mission and which of those units was at full strength and had a ready status. They would have decided whether or not to use the ready actions units of which at least two brigades of Army would be on immediate deployment status and I can assume the Marines, Navy and Air Force have similar plans for immediate response to any call up.

 

We can trust the Pentagon has plans and that all the President need do is pick up that phone he claims he could use to call for action if Congress did not pass his legislation in a timely manner and instead call the Pentagon and request their actions and plans be presented. Then he could pick up that pen with which he threatened Congress to use to write Executive Orders and use it to sign off on a plan of action and then write an Executive Memo to the leaders in Congress informing them of the impending actions and the Pentagon would take care of the rest. There is one contingency for which the Pentagon likely has plans but would be unable to implement them until the President ordered them to follow and support somebody else’s initiation of actions. That is President Obama’s famous plan of leading from behind, better known as following which often is the action of those too cowardly to commit to actions and stick their neck out, something which would be risky against ISIS but the President can go ahead and stick his neck out, the military would be out in front and would do or die even knowing that in the end the President would claim the glory, after all he took out Osama bin Laden haven’t you heard. Leading from behind is not an option on this crisis but President Obama is not one to make definitive decisions which might have him owning his actions. President Obama would rather simply follow and take only that action was dictated by somebody else, the United Nations, the European Union, NATO led by another member, actually President Obama would follow anybody, well, anybody but Israel. Were Israel to engage ISIS, it would not be a complete surprise if President Obama gave weapons to ISIS through some obscure middleman leader of another nation who might be supportive of ISIS though doing so would be risky. But until somebody else takes the lead we can expect more excuses over action from the White House.

 

One wonders if President Obama has even requested the Pentagon produce their plans for dealing with ISIS and said plans actually called for the United States to sit this round out. We can figure that the United States is loath to send troops back into Iraq after being pulled out by President Obama in a manner that military planners had informed the President was a premature action which would cause more problems than it could solve. The one problem leaving a residual force would not have addressed was President Obama winning reelection on his promise to bring our boys home come something (keeping it family friendly) or high water. The Pentagon may have been requested to provide plans which would include supporting UN or EU or NATO action taken to facilitate leading from behind at which time the Pentagon action would most likely be exactly what we are seeing, doing nothing waiting for somebody else to take the initiative so they could follow thus leading from behind again allowing President Obama to risk nothing which actually making a choice and lead would mean. But this begs a question; what happens if the United States is about to return to her historic role of isolationism where the United States trades with her friends and with her enemies but on a lesser scale and dares not interfere in worldly matters allowing them to work themselves out without United States interventions. United States entering an isolationist perspective would only allow her deployment of troops to be limited and almost always to support trade more than worrying about such trivialities as world balance and defeating evil, that’s better left to the knights of Europe who have always done this before. Of course this before was before the United States encouraged Europe to stop their militarism and that the United States would spread her umbrella and cover them so they could turn to less harmful pursuits such as taking on debt and squabbling amongst each other, just this time no world wars starting in Europe, that was the deal the United States imposed on Europe. But now it appears the United States may be folding up that umbrella and claiming not to see the storm clouds rising out of the Middle East, a denial which is difficult to swallow.

 

The going theory is that the United States will return to the role of the world’s police and enforce the good behavior between the nations extending force projection where needed. That is not the historic tendency of the United States after any major conflicts; her historic stance has been a laissez-faire attitude of simple sitting back keeping her hands politely to herself, which is the norm from the United States. The average American knows little about world affairs and cares even less. The average American was defined by President Clinton in his initial campaign for the Presidency with his slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid.” The stupid in this case was George Herbert Walker Bush (the elder and first Pres Bush) and the elections proved it as President Bush did not gain reelection largely due to his having broken his promise of, “Read my lips; no new taxes,” and then was forced to raise taxes by a Democrat Congress in order to get his budget passed with the military spending not slashed by the Congress. The election of President Clinton over reelecting President Bush was all about domestic policies over foreign policies.

 

You start to talk about foreign policy with the average American and their eyes gloss over and they drift into some zombie like state all catatonic and in shock after the first two or three sentences. Talk about immigration, taxes, domestic hot-button issues, government spending of which all is unnecessary except those they are or will receive, and the economy then you will engage in a sometimes heated debate. Talk about money and they will listen, talk about something happening in the Mille East or Asia and they will repeat what the media stated, that is bad, that is good and those people sure have as rough time, but then they will turn it back to how the government needs to take care of things at home first. The average American has all the sympathy you could ever ask for and they will donate more to charities than any other peoples on earth but when it comes to sending their young men off to fight in what they mostly see as somebody else’s war, then they need a ton of convincing and President Obama surfs waves, seldom makes waves when it comes to world politics. The President came from a past as a community organizer, read rabble rouser causing trouble to force government actions usually spending more money of which they get the lion’s share, and knows little outside of Chicago, let alone outside of the United States. He treats foreign policy as if it was a plague and to his outlook, as well as many Americans outlooks, simply does not go past the horizon and possibly not past the water’s edge.

 

We can bet that should the Democrat candidate become the next President, they too will do little as they can in foreign policy. We need remember that the Democrat candidate will not likely be Hillary Clinton but more likely somebody not even announced as of yet. Ms. Clinton’s campaign van has the wheels flying off and the engine is about to quit. The van is driving down the road to oblivion. But what if it is the Republican candidate, you inquire. There we need to find out who will take the lead and which ones do not survive the first three or four actual primary votes. We can make some specific and general observations. Rand Paul is an isolationist libertarian who believes if the United States hurts nobody then nobody would target the United States. Of all the governors and ex-governors running, only Jeb Bush might be a President inclined to use military force and actually have an active foreign policy. Others have claimed that they will repair the United States relations with Israel as well as Egypt and Saudi Arabia largely undoing some of the changes made under President Obama. Still, such actions do not necessarily mean a return into Iraq to defeat ISIS unless it becomes a dire threat to the stability of the Middle East. Only Senator Marco Rubio has direct experience with foreign policies as he in on the Senate Intelligence Committee which gives him access beyond the average Senator under the need to know doctrines. Almost any Republican candidate becoming President would easily take four months to a year to become fully briefed on every hot-spot that the Pentagon had plans and counter plans and different options under each plan and time granted each. Such amounts of information is why the President has a Secretary of Defense whose staff is divided so they can divide their work and attend to each contingencies. Still, the final decisions and person who must form the overall foreign police and who has to call in the troops for action when deemed to be necessary lies with the President and the President alone. That is one of the reason it is said that it is lonely at the top. We still have no real available input that any of the Republican candidates would press for an interventionist approach to foreign policies.

 

Likely the most pressing foreign policy might already have their hands tied should President Obama make any Iran nuclear deal somehow into a treaty without gaining Congressional affirmation. Such a decade long deal would actually prevent the next administration from taking any actions without smoking gun style proof that Iran had broken the agreement but as the agreement includes steps all the way through twelve years with little margin for change in the terms or even the terminology during that time period with the Iranians presumably free to complete their desired goal of deliverable nuclear warheads and the ICBMs on which to place them after ten years according to President Obama’s own admission which would leave them at a minimum two years to produce as many weapons systems as they are able starting with an unknown amount of LEU (low enrichment Uranium) with which to work and all of that Uranium a simple two day’s processing to be made weapons grade HEU (highly enriched Uranium over 90% purity) and then they would be capable of molding the cores and producing actual weapons. All of this is a guess of what the eventual agreement will appear to say and Iranian compliance to the terms and inspection protocols as well as their answering numerous questions about previous work performed largely by the military which Iran insists is an unprecedented and unnecessary invasion of their privileges and privacies. So, when it comes to the Iranian nuclear program the next President may be acting with his hands tied and possibly looking at a negative response from a nuclear armed Iran claiming their dominion over Iraq and dismissing the need for United States interference in their area of control which they will claim includes Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and who knows where else by January 21, 2017 when the next President takes office. After Iran there will be other situations such as Russia and their low-grade war with the Ukraine and its possibilities, China and their expansion Islands being built and potentially taking territorial control semi-legally over the entire South China Sea giving them control over one of the most active shipping lanes in the world. Speaking of choke points for shipping, Iran already has menacing control over the Straits of Hormuz where almost one third of the world’s oil is shipped by tankers and may through their proxies in Yemen, Houthis can also threaten to control the Bab-el-Mandeb which would cut off the southern exit of the Red Sea making the Suez Canal unusable and the Israeli southern port to the orient and Africa blockaded, a casus belli which could lead to a state of declared war by Iran on Israel and Egypt as both would have their shipping access to the world impeded illegally as Iran would have no other excuse other than they could close all shipping. These are just the top three and none of these includes the ISIS threat which may grow to the point where Iran and ISIS meet on equal footing with ISIS having gained an Air Force even if of a limited nature, and tactics which are prone to working, at least working well against the Iraqi army. ISIS has had far less success against the Kurdish Militias such as the Peshmerga (literally “one who confronts death”) and the People’s Protection Units (known as the YPG). These have held the northeast parts of Syria having an astonishing turning point in the city of Kobanê as well as the northern third or so of Iraq where the Kurdish forces saved thousands of Yazidi and whose Yazidi Militias have joined ranks with the Kurdish Militias. We could continue to the other continents and their probabilities for causing distress but that would leave Antarctica as probably the only safe haven if you desired no strife, or at least not yet.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 29, 2015

Syrian War Winner and Losers

Filed under: Act of War,Air Fields,Allah,Amalekites,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab Spring,Arab Winter,Arab World,Arabist,Army Chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi,Bab-el-Mandeb,Babylon,Beheading,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Calaphate,Caliphate,Civil War,Civilization,Clan,Conflict Avoidnce,Coptic Christians,Dhimmi,Dictator,Egypt,Egyptian Military,Europe,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Fatwa,Foreign Funding,Government,Hate,Hezballah,History,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,IRGC,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jihad,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Libya,Middle East,Military Council,Ministers,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Nationalist,Nationalist Pressures,Nebuchadnezzar II,Nuclear Option,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,P5+1,Pakistan,Parliament,Persians,Politicized Findings,Politics,Power,President Morsi,President Sisi,Pressure by Egyptian People,Rebel Forces,Religion,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Saudi Military,Shiite,Sinai Peninsula,Soldiers,Sunni,Syrian Military,Taqiyya,Theocracy,Threat of War,Threat of War,Tribe,Turkish Military,Twelvers,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,War,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,World Without Zionism or America,Yemen,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:26 AM
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The Syrian war is about to finally enter its terminal stage. This is not something to be celebrated as there is only one winner and a ton of losers. Without any doubt the largest losers are the Syrian people who now have no country. Syria will be a nation in ruin for as far as the mind can see. Once the Assad government final is completely destroyed and the Alawites have paid the price for the Assad families’ decades of ruthless leadership where millions died just because the Assad family feared they might turn against their governing, then the Syrian fighting will simply be every factions, tribe and even clan contesting land until eternity. The war will rage on ravaging what is already a nation in ruin even further down the scale of civil rule. It is highly likely that Syria will never emerge from the ashes and the Syrian people will inherit a nation at war with itself with no relief from the horrors similarly to what is still ravaging Libya long after their dictator paid the price for his savagery. Bashir al-Assad will probably be more fortunate as he will probably take refuge in Iran, Russia or somewhere in Europe where he and his family will live quietly and under an assumed identity spending what is likely to be billions of Euros they have stashed in numbered Swiss accounts. Some might see this as their having come out as winning but they will also be living that life or relative luxury constantly looking over their shoulder checking for an inevitable assassination of Bashir al-Assad if not a slaughter of his entire family some night when something went bump in the night and their house was transformed into their tomb.

 

There will be numerous leaders of different factions of the groups fighting against Assad who will claim to have won and may even spend a few hours in celebration of the final end of Assad family rule before the next stage of the fighting begins to determine who will be the final winner. Unfortunately for the people of the Arab and soon greater Muslim worlds, when the entirety becomes a contest to determine who gets to form the next Caliphate then everyone loses as the fighting envelops a larger and larger area with numerous factions fighting against each other and eventually factions melding to be stronger and fighting to be the final victor as there can be only one Caliph and soon there may be countless contesters for that throne. This fighting promises to eventually cut the Muslim world into large factions with regular breaking down between allies just making the fighting even more destructive. The initial fighting will continue across Syria, Libya and Iraq for the foreseeable future with a few contesters being the forces to watch. The most obvious element is ISIS which claims to have their tentacles reaching across the different areas where fighting is active, even in Yemen. The news has reported of ISIS factions beheading some twenty Egyptian Coptic Christians which garnered them some attention from Egypt which carried out a series of airstrikes. This provides the simple truth of what it will take for ISIS to actually be capable of successfully claiming the leadership and establishing the next Caliphate, air-power. So far ISIS has not given even a tentative sign that they have any air capabilities. There was mention after ISIS captured an airbase in Syria of their intending to train pilots for the establishing of an ISIS air force. They managed to get a few jets into the sky which were immediately shot down by actual fighters from the Syrian Air Force. The next step was the destruction of every aircraft on the ground by two or three days of airstrikes rendering the airfield useless and destroying every aircraft they could target. So much for an ISIS air force.

 

ISIS will be a terrorist organization, though a powerful one for now, until they somehow manage to garner air-power in the form of aircraft and fully trained pilots to fly them. There will be only one way for this to occur, and that would be for a number of flight squadrons to take to the air and land on an airstrip already within ISIS controlled area bringing as much weaponry for their aircraft as they are able to carry. If such defections are well planned before their execution these pilots and some ground crews for servicing their aircraft, as such will be vital, will also have some cargo aircraft loaded with munitions, spare parts and everything necessary to sustain an active air force no matter how small. Obviously this would require either an entire nation’s air crews or a number of squadrons following suit in rapid succession thus forming not only the beginning core of an air force but instead a complete and functioning air force capable of defending their airfields as well as providing ground support and other missions. Anything less and ISIS will remain a terrorist group even if a powerful terrorist entity, but not yet the nation or even contender for the title of Caliphate. So, who are the real qualifiers for the title of leaders of the Caliphate?

 

Unfortunately ISIS is still the number one contender as they have the appearance as the strong horse with the plans and the fire to get the Caliphate started and lead the fighting forces to eventual victory and the unification of the entirety of the Ummah (Arabic: أمة‎‎). As pointed out, if ISIS is to eventually prove the leadership of the new Caliphate they will require a real air force which has thus far eluded them. That leads us to the more obvious candidates but first let’s list some of the non-state actors who will eventually play a role in the determining the next Caliphate. The first one to come to mind is the father of so many of the Arab and Islamist terrorist and non-state actors across the expanse of the Muslim world, the Muslim Brotherhood. Another entity with the structures in place for making a claim is al-Qaeda. A third would have to be the Taliban though their reach is limited; they do have well trained fighters who are highly motivated. Despite the Muslim Brotherhood, Taliban and al-Qaeda having extensive ties and supporters, they have the same problems as does ISIS, no air power. For this reason, none of these groups have much of a chance of defeating an actual state whose military is well formed and capable of fighting a modern war against what would have to be viewed as a terrorist entity in the eyes of the national leadership and armed forces. The main duty beyond holding the line against the terror entity would be keeping control through the ranks, especially the air force, to prevent defections to the other side, something which occurred with some of the Sunni military and security forces in Iraq and Syria. There were even a few pilots who defected over to ISIS but not in sufficient numbers to even form a single squadron of fighter air corps.

 

There are currently four nations which might be considered capable of eventually forming the next Caliphate if such is what is fated. These are in no particular order, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt. A fifth possible nation would have to be Pakistan if for no other reason than their being a nuclear armed nation. The nations who currently are allied in the fight against the Iranian proxy Houthis fighting for control of Yemen and most importantly, the Bab-el-Mandeb narrows at the southern end of the Red Sea and controlling access from the Red Sea into the Gulf of Aden and onto the Arabian Sea and beyond, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. This is a perfect alliance as Saudi Arabia has the oil wealth while Egypt has a strong, well-armed and well-trained military which has proven their unity and discipline over the trying period of two changes in governance over the past three years which the military retained its ranks and officer corps and structure throughout. The greatest threat to the Saudi-Egyptian alliance is obviously Iran which could become favored to gain the upper hand in this contest once they attain their own production of nuclear weapons, a structure that is greatly formed already and presumably not producing such weapons due to their negotiating with the P5+1 and possibly fearing actions by the United States should they actually proceed and build a nuclear weapons stockpile. This likely means that Iran is doing exactly that, as they have no respect, let alone fear, of any threat the United States might currently make. Once it becomes obvious that Iran has produced nuclear weapons, it is expected and been confirmed unofficially that Saudi Arabia will be exercising their agreement to purchase, most likely at wholesale, a dozen, or a few dozen, nuclear devices and the delivery system to go with them in the case they are warheads rather than bombs. This would allow for the Saudis to develop, which means build the facilities, their own nuclear program. The Saudi Arabian scientists and necessary technicians are already trained and ready to take up the challenge of producing nuclear weapons as they have received such plans from Pakistan in exchange for their subsidizing the Pakistani drive to produce their own nuclear weapons in response to India having done so. The Saudi access to nuclear weapons production will serve to perpetuate into perpetuity the alliance between Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

 

With the establishment of an alliance between Saudi Arabia and Egypt one side and Iran and whatever remnants of Iraq, Syria and probably Lebanon as ISIS and the other rebel groups who will have brought down Bashir al-Assad will still have numerous scores to settle with Hezballah which any international borders will not be capable of standing in the way preventing this vengeance from being extracted. The above alliance leaves such powers as Turkey and Pakistan on the outside in the cold, so to speak. Pakistan is most likely to remain on the outside simply observing as a mostly disinterested spectator who if forced to choose would most likely ally with the Saudis and company as they have had a mutually advantageous relationship over the decades, despite Pakistan receiving much of their oil from Iran, it is likely that the Saudis could take care of any need in that area. That leaves Turkey to figure on which direction they are most likely to take. The direction Turkey would take depends on who is in power. Currently their leader for as long as most can remember has been Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Should Erdogan remain in power, which way he would choose would be in question. President Erdogan has over the years shown to side with the Iranians, Saudis and even Egypt alternately. Currently there is a significant rift between Turkey and Egypt over the ouster of President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood governance and replacing it with the chosen General of the Army President Sisi. The Turkish government, which is to say Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has held fast demanding that President Sisi step down as President and place Morsi back on his Presidential pedestal along with the entirety of the Muslim Brotherhood government the last elections replaced. As doing so would most definitely lead to the loss of the lives of most of the upper echelons of the Egyptian military, this scenario is highly unlikely. If sentences are to be carried out swiftly there may no longer be a former President Morsi to return to the position as he and hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood leaders have been sentenced to death recently by the Egyptian courts. Meanwhile, Erdogan has alternately shown affinity for Iran though currently has remained surprisingly neutral and silent reserving his vitriol for Israel, always the default position one can take to insulate themselves from outside harms. Determining which direction Turkey might take under Erdogan is a guessing game and probably will remain that way until one side or the other proves the victor and then Erdogan would ingratiate himself to the victor. If he were to choose, he appears to favor Iran possibly due to their presence in Syria and thus along his southern border. Without Erdogan Turkey would naturally side with Saudi Arabia and Egypt as they would no longer be seen as supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.

 

The question as to which side would prove victorious between a Saudi Arabian led coalition or Iran is a tougher call. It might all depend on which side was willing to use their ultimate weapon with sufficient deployment so as to end the ability of the other side to resist. Where I have some doubts that the Saudis would be the first to use nuclear weapons in the Middle East, I have no doubts that such would be the primary first strike or response to hostilities in order to simply end any contest and declare their victory. Should such an event ever be presented to the world, their answer should be carefully decided and decisively delivered. Should Iran use nuclear weapons against her adversaries on the Middle East and willingly bring such devastation to fellow Muslims, even if they were predominantly Sunni and not Shiite, then the rest of the world had best believe they would receive nothing less. Should Iran launch such a barrage, it would be surprising if they did not at the same time launch attacks by multiple means on Europe and the United States as well as any other nation they might perceive to be capable of mounting a credible resistance to their eventual world-wide victory. But even Iran does not appear to be quite that ruthless or willing to wreak such devastation on such a scale.

 

Should they prove to be that hardhearted and coldblooded as to end civilization as we know it, then it would prove a suspicion I had way back when a cursory review of the predictions of Nostradamus was in vogue and fascinated one youth after viewing a special on television where they gave lengthy coverage to his future vision of the world falling to a man from the Middle East wearing a blue turban. Despite every publication and prediction claiming that this meant Iraq I held stubbornly to my feelings that it signified Iran, and I do mean stubbornly. Often I was dismissed as a lost cause incapable of listening to reason but I had my faith that Persia would rise again and not Babylonia. Historically the Babylonians surrendered to the Persians almost joyously as their ruler had lost his mind after burning three Israelites (Jews) for not bowing before him and they somehow proved to be fireproof, well, at least for that moment as they cried out to G0d and were saved from a fiery death. This proved a bit much for the mind of King Nebuchadnezzar II who lost his mind unable to believe or understand that such a miracle was possible and that he was not the most powerful even in his own kingdom, his capital city even.

 

As is often the case, the eventual end to this will entail a fair degree of insanity, a touch of the impossible, room for a number of miracles, even more so should Israel somehow become involved. Perhaps this might be the place to end with a final word on the probable path Hezballah may be about to tread. Once the remaining forces, the few, the perplexed, the Syrian remnants; then Hezballah will find themselves pretty much alone as the IRGC forces will stake out a radius around Damascus and wherever else they determine is vital to Iran such as the port where the Russian fleet is docked, Latakia, and perhaps a few places in Lebanon as well. Should Iranian plans not include providing safety for the last remnants of the Syrian military, they certainly will not be protecting Hezballah. The Iranians may well understand that should they not side with the remnants of the defenders of Assad that their retaining the choice areas they believe essential to their requirements will be more readily accepted and produce minimal resistance. That leaves Hezballah pretty much out in the cold and in need of some reinforcement to their devotion to Allah and commitment to the perpetual cause, the eradication of the Zionist entity, Israel. The end result will be the same and Hezballah should prove to be better served for survival by fighting Israel than fighting ISIS. It needs to be remembered that Hezballah, just like ISIS, has no air force. This deficiency will prove fatal for them in either battle, against Israel it is obvious, they will have little recourse against Israeli air power, and against ISIS it places them on an even playing field with ISIS currently being the more motivated and Hezballah having superior training and better knowledge of the terrain as well as having heavily fortified bunker and tunnel system in southern Lebanon, their home turf. Either path will probably be the final battles Hezballah will ever engage in. Even should they start a war with Israel, that does not necessarily rule out a final settling of grievances with ISIS, it would just mean that final reckoning coming after Israel had smashed their bunkers and tunnels and decimated their rocket and other heavy weaponry. Anyway one slices it, there is a better than average probability that we will have seen the last of Hezballah by Summer’s end. That may be the cherry atop the ice cream Sunday and a gift to the civilized world out of the ashes of Syria.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 12, 2015

The Menace Rising

Filed under: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,Act of War,Administration,al-Qaeda,Alberto Nisman,Amalekites,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Arab Authority,Argentina,Argentine-Israeli Mutual Association (AMIA),Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,Ayatollahs,Belgium,Breakout Point,Britain,Buenos Aires,Burgas,Cabinet,Civilization,Conflict Avoidnce,Coverup,Cyprus,Democracy,Economy,Egypt,EMP Device,Europe,European Council,European Union,Executive Order,Federica Mogherini,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Framework,France,Germany,Government,Hate,Hezballah,Hezballah,Holocaust,International Politics,Intifada,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps,Iraq,IRGC,ISIS,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Home,Jewish Leadership,Jewish Temple,Jihad,Jihad,John Kerry,Jordan River,Judea,Judean Hills,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Libya,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Muslim World,Non Binding Resolution,Nuclear Option,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Palestinian Authority,Peace Process,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Cristina Kirchne,Rocket Attacks,Russia,Samaria,Saudi Arabia,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Sharia,Shiite,Shiite,Soviet Union,Sunni,Sunni,Syria,Taqiyya,Terror,Threat of War,Tri Border Region,Turkey,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,Yemen,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:05 AM
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Every once in a while the writing of an article virtually daily gets to a point where you ask yourself if perhaps you are looking so hard at a few items that you may be missing the big picture. You realize that you have burrowed into one subject and you have to take stock and realize if maybe this one main has consumed you. I was thinking that perhaps the whole Iran toxic miasma which has surrounded me and others might be hiding something just as important or even more threatening and pressing that it may be time to look elsewhere for another angle or new subject. So why don’t we try and see some of the other items of the day that are happening and see what we can decipher.

 

One of the items I have seen rising is the challenges to the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas. The claim is as valid as can be, the charge that he is an illegitimate leader since he has not been elected to the post and it is way past time for him to stand for reelection and answer the rising challenges from others who believe he has become obsolete and his belief that he can be President for Life is far too dictatorial and the Arab people deserve an elected leader who is more in tune with their hopes and dreams. The challenge comes from a man who desires to unseat Abbas as President of Fatah and to restructure Fatah to serve the real desires of the Arab people and their desire for a whole and entire state. There was only one small fly in this ointment which makes it as illegitimate as Abbas and potentially even worse. The person behind this Abbas must stand for election now or give up his right to lead does not have the desires of the Arab people living west of the Jordan River in mind. How can I make such a statement? Well, easily as the person making this demand the loudest is likely the man who would try and unseat him and take his place, Mahmoud al-Zahar. For those unfamiliar with Mahmoud al-Zahar allow me to fill in some of the more pertinent information. Mahmoud al-Zahar is a long-time Hamas leader who vilifies Abbas as being too passive and not seeking the desire of the Arabs of destroying Israel and replacing it with the heart of the next Caliphate blessed with the blood of every Israeli and Arab living between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea who fails to meet his standard of belief and dedication to a rising Islamic supremacy which will, as per the Hamas Charter, seek out every corner of the world and annihilate every Jew and disbeliever. This would be a frightening thought for somebody who may actually be a credible threat to replace Abbas as the leader of Fatah and then become a legitimate claimant to lead the Authority. Fortunately, al-Zahar is a member of Hamas and not Fatah, not that this would prevent him from running to replace Abbas, presumably making him ineligible to run for the position. If he were to challenge Abbas as the leader of the Palestinian Authority (PA) then he would have a legitimate claim to the position as the unity government is technically in place and valid. Perhaps this makes it feasible for al-Zahar to attempt to unseat Abbas from Fatah, who knows the inner workings, dysfunctional as they may be, of the Arab Fatah Party structure and whether the unity government would add its blessing to such a challenge. But fear not for if one looks deeply enough into the eyes of al-Zahar and peers into his darkened soul one would find the heart of a true Hamas leader whose ideas and ideals come partially from hatreds he is steeped in as a leader of Hamas and gained locally and there are further drives for an Arab entity to replace all the lands west of the Jordan River including all of Israel and purify such a nation in blood. A look just slightly deeper into al-Zahar’s soul and one finds the hands of Iran manipulating many of his actions and implanting desires of leading a victorious Arab army conquering the lands and cleansing them for his Iranian masters. There for all to witness is the driving heart of al-Zahar; simply another soldier of Iran waiting anxiously for the day when the order is given to rise up and claim all the lands which are Israel for his Iranian masters.

 

Then one can decide to look further afield to the new interest in Argentine where the official Offices of the Prosecutors is not only looking into the mysterious death of one of their own, Alberto Nisman, who was assassinated the morning right before he was scheduled to present his findings concerning the bombing of the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA; Argentine Israelite Mutual Association) where eighty-five people were murdered and the injured numbered over three-hundred. Alberto Nisman had presumably uncovered evidence which implicated criminal accusations which he had filed against President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Apparently Mr. Nisman discovered plans, a plot even, to permit the attack by Hezballah and Iranian terrorists on the Jewish Community Center in a deal in which it was believed that the Argentine government had sought the arrangement as part of a trade pact with Iran. So, here again we find Iran’s sticky little terrorist fingers only this time the deeds appear to have been carried out by Hezballah in conjunction with the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps or “Pasdaran”) both operating out of the “Tri-Border Region” which is a long standing center for the training and launching point for terrorist activities in the Americas located where the borders of Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil conjoin allowing for each nation to ignore the town and training areas set up by the IRGC along with Hezballah claiming it is within the other two national areas of jurisdictions and as such they have no powers under which to investigate. It appears that the tri-border facility has a really nice set-up going there on the border of Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil and financed and directed by the IRGC enforcing the interests and policies of Iran in the Americas. So, here to it all leads back to the Mullahs in Iran.

 

There have been warnings from the IDF over the possibility of a front opening up other than the expected repeat of last summer and the firing of rockets from out of Gaza into most of Israel, with as anywhere from a thousand to fifteen-hundred rockets each day from out of Lebanon and probably mainly from Syria onto the entirety of Israel and with some longer range rockets actually being new missiles which have excellent accuracy and may prove to be a large problem should they be used to target Tel Aviv or the Dimona Nuclear Research Site outside of the Capital of the South, Beer-Sheva. The main perpetrator of these rockets and missiles which will reach the entire length of Israel is largely Hezballah possibly receiving some support from the IRGC. These attacks will be directed from Tehran and may come in support of the rocket attacks from Gaza and possibly some from the Sinai Peninsula. Unsurprisingly, the orders for both the barrages from the north as well as those from the south by Hamas will be at the directive from where else, that’s right, Iran.

 

Apparently there is a good reason why almost all of our posts have been concerning Iran and their apparent drive for nuclear weapons and President Obama’s naiveté in his handling of the entire negotiations. President Obama is accomplishing two objectives simultaneously by allowing Iran all the time they require to realize their needs for nuclear weapons and refining them to produce a device capable of delivering a knockout electromagnetic pulse (EMP) along the design provided Iran by Russia for their super EMP device which was originally intended by the Soviet Union to deliver a knockout punch to either the European Union electrical grid or to destroy the United States and partially the Canadian electronic grids. This or any other nuclear device would appear to be the goal of the Iranians to continue the negotiations which, for the benefit of Iran would be to continue until they had sufficient devices to allow the usage of one device as a notification that the Iranians have arrived at the gates to the nuclear group demanding admittance and recognition. To continue the talks after such a demonstration would prove to be a further exercise in futility. The question then becomes what does the world do about a nuclear armed Iran and what does Iran do to further the reach of its already extensive network of tentacles reaching even to the far corners of the globe originating in Tehran.

 

We know of the very long and reinforced tentacle through which any strikes on the United States would be directed. Currently this tentacle can reach anywhere in South America through the tri-border area, the area which is currently focused on Buenos Aires and the investigation and eventually the potential trial of those implicated and arrests warrants issued which may implicate Tehran or Lebanon and Hezballah leaders. Such an eventuality might trigger the start of the planned assault on Israel from both directions, both along the northern front and the southern fronts. Should Iran desire to carry out any terrorist activities within the United States, such activities would easily be facilitated and provided access into the United States using their connections with the Mexican drug cartels who Hezballah has trained in tactics and other techniques used by Hezballah to all but run the country of Lebanon where they have free range to train, recruit and plan exercises which has made them one of the finest armies assisting Bashir al-Assad to continue his reign of murder and terror over the nation of Syria. Needless to point out but additionally Iran and Hezballah likely have numerous cells within the United States just waiting for the day they are activated to conduct a mission. The faithful execution of any missions such cells may be utilized to commit is often assured through holding family members within Lebanon as persuasion over their actions and trusted loyalty. We know Iran has extensive abilities to strike anywhere within the Americas as we witnessed in two separate bombings in Argentina the first was the bombing of the Israeli Embassy on March 17, 1992, with the second being the bombing of the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) on July 18, 1994, both in Buenos Aires. These were both perpetrated, as best as we can ascertain, by Hezballah trained operatives with the aid of special agents sent to the Tri-Border Region often in order for them to advance within the Basenji or the ranks of the IRGC, which both have initiation rites, one needs to successfully complete a terrorist operation in order to be considered trustworthy and committed.

 

On the European front there have been a number of terrorist attacks which potentially could have been traced back to Hezballah and Iran with the most recognized being the bombing of the Israeli tourist bus at the Burgas airport along the Black Sea coast of Bulgaria. The threats posed by Hezballah have driven the European Union to have placed the “military wing” of Hezballah on their terrorist list, as if there is a non-militant wing of Hezballah. The European reference to the military wing is done so as to allow the Europeans to provide Hezballah funds in Lebanon for such things as building libraries, health clinics and the like which are actually built by the Lebanese government which has not been totally co-opted by Hezballah, at least not currently. There was also a Cyprus magistrate who in March of 2013 indicted a Hezballah courier in Plot to Attack Israeli Tourists. There exist terrorist entities within the civil strife ongoing in Libya which unsurprising as virtually any terrorist groups even to include both ISIS and al-Qaeda have splinter groups inside Libya. Their representation in Libya is just one example of Hezballah presence in northern Africa. In the Middle East there have been reports recently that Hezballah has offered the Houthis in Yemen assistance if they feel it would benefit their efforts. Everybody by now knows that the Iranians have been supplying guns, ammunition, crew-served weapons and the training with the more advanced weapons to assist them in their conquest of the remainder of Yemen. And then there are the Iranians who appear to have completely taken over the ground operations against ISIS in Iraq so completely that the Iranian commanders are the people making the calls for airstrikes. This is a development which should be cause for alarm on behalf of the European and United States pilots and their actual commanders to be relying so completely on Iranian officers and even enlisted men of which most likely belong to the IRGC, a group considered as a borderline or actually declared terrorists and they are now calling in allied air strikes. How are the pilots to know that their strikes are supporting ground actions and not supporting the wonton destruction of property and lives being carried out by the Shiite IRGC members who have been murdering Sunni Iraqis who survived the ISIS occupation and are not facing violence and destruction often by Iraqi troops who actively aid in the destruction of entire Sunni villages and neighborhoods.

 

Finally we get back to the root source of so much of the terrorist and militia violence around the world and who stands as the commander of cells who could turn Europe or the United States into a roiling turmoil striking at soft targets such as malls holding special weekend only sales events, state and county fairs, political rallies, sporting events or anywhere that a large number of people would be attending making for a rich field of victims simply provided for the murdering much as happened in Nairobi, Kenya or the Embassy attacks using car-bomb attacks in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Whether any assaults by terrorist murderers were actually perpetrated by directly linkable entities to Iran or belonging to al-Qaeda or Hamas, both Sunni Muslim terrorist groups, have received safe quarter, training, arming and whatever other resources these presumably enemy Sunni entities to the majority Shiite Iran, but Iran is pragmatic and willing to assist in any actions which will harm Israeli or Western interests and pressure democratic governments potentially causing their collapse. Iran has been behind so many different murderous attacks and has tentacles reaching across the entirety of the globe such that the terror attack planned for next week, or next month or whenever you least expect it, hold sure that it very well will be traceable to Iranian assistance or actual manpower and arms support. Those who accuse Iran of being the greatest sponsor of terrorism on the face of the Earth are serious and know of what they speak. Iran changed drastically largely due to the incompetence and unfathomably simple-minded reasoning by then United States President Jimmy Carter.

 

He rationalized that the Shah of Iran who was methodically bringing Iran forward integrating advanced Western technological and manufacturing possibly even with the intent of eventually installing democratic principles, but all President Carter saw was a wealthy despot taking wealth from his people. On the other side President Carter believed that the Ayatollah Rouhollah Mousavi Khomeini had to be a kind and benevolent person as he was a cleric and religious person. Needless to say but President Carter knew little or nothing, if even that much, about Islam and the messianic message commanding that Islam must be spread by any and all means necessary until it becomes the only religion for all mankind on planet Earth and that the Ayatollah Khomeini was a man dedicated to that end. President Carter accepted the promises from Ayatollah Khomeini that he would establish a Western style democracy and grant the people of Iran freedoms and rights beyond President Carter’s wildest imaginations. Well, we can assume that the Ayatollah delivered on the actions beyond President Carter’s wildest imaginations when the Ayatollah allowed, some like I believe aided and planned, the takeover of the United States Embassy followed by a four-hundred-forty-four days until the next President, Ronald Reagan, was inaugurated at which point fearing and immediate war being launched by the new President, ended the siege and returned the hostages. After the final release of every last hostage, the truths about some of the treatment received by the hostages with some being accused of being spies and torture used to coerce confessions and other atrocities, the full and shocking story was finally told. It is good to know that the Iranian leadership has not changed that much from the early days in 1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini returned triumphantly and installed his theocracy and all the horrors one might imagine.

 

Now we have President Barrack Obama who looks to Iran and sees a potential ally who can replace the current United States allies of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Israel and take over as the hegemonic power in the Middle East which will not require United States military presence, an ultimate goal of President Obama, removing the United States military presence from everywhere outside the American borders. Iran, now under the rule of Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, has changed as little as the names of its rulers’ have, from Khomeini to Khamenei. The Ayatollah Khamenei is more than happy and quite eager to take advantage of every possible advantage he realizes he holds over President Obama. This has been most evident in the nuclear arms negotiations where the representatives for the United States state their position and the Iranian negotiators state their position. Then the debate begins eventually leading to a one-on-one meeting behind closed doors between United States Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister and Chief Negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif. These are often long and drawn-out sessions and when they finally are completed the two men meet with their respective teams and negotiations continue with one slight alteration, the United States negotiators are now assisting the Iranian in pressing their positions on France, Britain and Germany. This has been the basic functioning premise of the negotiations with it becoming almost comical had it not also been such a disaster for the western world including Israel and the Middle East especially for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Jordan and I guess we can include Israel again as it does seem to be twice as much trouble where Israel is concerned. The one nation which appears will win no matter which side, Saudi Arabia or Iran, becomes the leader of the Islamic world, and that is Turkey which is sitting on both sides of the fence. In the meantime the Iranians are spinning their way to nuclear weapons and holding the biggest club over the Middle East, North Africa and eventually Europe and capable of going toe-to-toe with Russia as by then Iran will be the hegemonic power of half of the world and well on their way to completing the dream of Islam since 765 A.D. Much of the most recent round of nuclear negotiation talks have been the stuff of nightmares and are promising to only get worse. There is no actual candidate who will play savior and come dashing over the hill riding high on his white stallion with a white Stetson atop his head blowing the bugle for the cavalry to charge in and save the day. I fear that President Obama has had the cavalry’s steeds sold off for a bag of magic beans. The question is will the world be capable of surviving the events yet to happen over the next two years. How much damage will be done by an Iranian menace cut loose and armed with nuclear warheads to enforce their will, how does the world coexist with that? Do we all survive a messianic cult with dreams of an eventual battle which engulfs the world and only then does their messiah arrive and grant them victory over a world made mostly of radioactive dust. What can we do and how can we do whatever will prevent the destruction of all everybody knows.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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