Beyond the Cusp

August 7, 2015

Obama May Have His Deal but Who Will Inherit His War

Filed under: 24/7 News Reporting,Act of War,Administration,Agency France Press,al-Qaeda,Alawite,Amalekites,Ansar Bayt al Maqdis,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollahs,Bab-el-Mandeb,Bashir al-Assad,Benyamin Netanyahu,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Calaphate,Caliphate,Caliphate,Chemical Weapons,China,Chinese Pressure,Chlorine Gas,Civilization,Condemning Israel,Conflict Avoidnce,Congress,Consequences,Covert Actions,Coverup,Czech Republic,Defend Israel,Dhimmi,Druze,Ease Sanctions,Economic Sanctions,Economy,Egypt,EMP Device,Equal Treatment,Equality,Eritria,Europe,European Governments,European Media,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Financial Crisis,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Foreign Trade,France,Gaza,Germany,Golden Age of Islam,Government,Government Controlled Media,Great Britain,Greece,Hamas,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,Hezballah,Hezballah,History,Holy Cities,ICBM,Immortals,Inteligence Report,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps,Iraq,Iraqi Military,IRGC,ISIS,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,Kurdish Militias,Kurdistan,Kurds,Kuwait,Lebanese Army,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Mainstream Media,Mecca,Media,Media Bias,Medina,Middle East,Military Intervention,Military Option,Mohammad-Rezā Pahlavi,Munich Accord of 1938,Murder Americans,Murder Israelis,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Muslims,Myth,Nazi,Neville Chamberlain,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,P5+1,Pentagon,Persia,Persians,Peshmerga Militias,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President for Life,President Obama,Prime Minister,Promised Land,Quds Force,Quran,Remove Sanctions,Roman Empire,Russia,Russian Pressure,Saddam Hussein,Sanctions,Saudi Military,Secular Interests,Shah,Sharia,Shiite,Smiling Cheshire Man,Somalia,Strong Sanctions,Sudan,Suez Canal,Sunni,Supreme Leader,Syria,Syrian Military,Taqiyya,Terminal War,Terror,The Twelfth Imam,Threat of War,Threat of War,Turkey,Twelvers,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,Wahabbists,War,Weapons of Mass Destruction,Western World,Winston Churchill,WMD,World Media,World Opinion,World Pressures,World War I,World War II,World War III,World Without Zionism or America,Yemen,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:22 AM
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Thanks to the economic and other sanctions which have hobbled the Iranian economy to the point, about eighteen months ago, it resembled a dying man crawling on his belly in tattered pants and the shreds of his shirt, shoes scuffed to the point that their original color was indistinguishable and two vultures already discussing which would get which of the choicest remains, had Iran at the brink of civil revolt. That was when President Obama held back door negotiations where he released some of the most effective of the sanctions which brought the distant oasis to the parched lips of the Iranian economy saving them to make the better deal. It is that deal President Obama, the hero of the Iranians government, is claiming is the best deal and the only option outside of war. But is this claim of peace in our time really just peace for a while in our time? The comparisons between the Munich Accords of 1938 and now President Obama is desperately seeking the same adulation for this close relative to another situation of a nation spreading its tentacles and preparing for war and barely even concealing their arming and their aspirations which have been laid out in writing. The desires for world conquest and the elimination of the Jewish People was laid out step for step by Adolph Hitler in Mein Kampf and the Iranian Shiites (and also the Sunnis just to be fair and even; after all we would not want to take sides now, would we?) in the Quran and the Hadiths where the world is divided between ‘Dar al-Islam’ (Arabic: دار الإسلام‎) which translates to House of Islam and ‘Dar al-Harb’ (Arabic: دار الحرب) which translates to House of War. The followers of Islam are instructed to continue their struggle to spread their religion until it becomes the only religion practiced anywhere in the world. There are many Muslims residing in Western nations who refute any charges that Islam is to be spread ‘by the sword’ should more passive means prove unproductive and there remain some who adamantly refuse to accept Islam which is simply intolerable.

 

Then there is the Islamic State which has denuded entire cities and swaths of lands in which they have taken control of those who practiced any religion other than not only Islam but their very narrowly defined version of Sunni Islam. The marauders of the Islamic State may have been the Junior Varsity in the eyes of United States President Obama but are anything but the Junior Varsity when it comes to torture and coming up with ever more imaginative ways to ever more slowly murder their victims making sure that they suffered the most mental anguish, even if not the maximum pain, as they progressed from beheadings to burning alive to slowly being lowered in a steel cage into water to drown victims and other horrors and then posted their murderous ways using them as some form of sick recruiting tool. What is even more disturbing are the numbers of those who have rushed from across Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and the rest of the Western World to join the Islamic State. The only productive news concerning Iran is they oppose the Islamic State and desire to eliminate this horror from the world. But then one must ask themselves, is replacing the Islamic State horrors with Iranian, Syrian and Hezballah horrors really a step in the right direction or simply replacing one murderous and fearsome army turned government with another murderous government using its army.

 

These are the leaders of a nation of approximately seventy-eight-million-five-hundred-thousand largely Shia Muslims of which the vast majority are what are referred to as “Twelvers” with the remainder of the population being also largely Muslims following Sunni Islam. The remaining under one-percent of Iranians follows the following religions in order from largest to least; Bahá’í, Gnostic, Christian, Yarsanism, Zoroastrianism, Hinduism, and least but with a very nice Synagogue, the Yusef Abad synagogue in Tehran pictured below, Judaism. Interestingly, there are more Jews of Iranian heritage residing in the United States than remain in Iran which according to the 2011 Iranian census stated this threatened populations of Jews at eight-thousand-seven-hundred-fifty-six souls the majority spread between merely ten families, six of them related by marriage. There are those who inflate the numbers of Jews remaining in Iran to over one-hundred-thousand largely in an attempt to portray Iran as an accepting nation granting equal rights to non-Muslims despite the fact that the minorities walk quietly and taking care to be aware of their surroundings at all times and making sure to keep their heads bowed and their gaze fixates on the ground before them and to never under any circumstance stare any Shiite Muslim in the eyes and to always speak in hushed tones speaking in slow and respectful manners and subservient language never to sound challenging or to ever, ever appear as an equal lest one be reported to the police for such an affront and pay the price for challenging their superiors. There is a very good and solid description of life in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution for Jews and other minorities given by Karmel Melamed, an award-winning, internationally published journalist and attorney based in Southern California who writes the Iranian American Jews blog. This article titled ”The Iranian-Jewish Tragedy in Iran” which gives the chilling view which the Western World needs to understand before they permit the fascist, supremacist dictatorial leadership to once again, in the brief history from 1900 to the present, to allow a cancer which believes they have a right to destroy the world in order to save the world. The history of Iran in that same time period just might give people some pause to realize the direction Iran has taken since 1900 and the path is chilling.

 

 

Yusef Abad Synagogue (Persian: Kenise e Yusef Ábád کنیسه یوسف آباد‎, Hebrew: בית הכנסת יוסף-אבד‎) in Tehran as originally appeared during the 1950s before its restoration. The person who had just completed returning a Torah to the ark will stand as a reference to the size of the main hall. The main hall of the Synagogue was built and completed in the early 1950s. She was a very ornate and majestic house of worship which will soon fall silent after enjoying hearing prayers recited for almost seventy years.

Yusef Abad Synagogue (Persian: Kenise e Yusef Ábád کنیسه یوسف آباد‎, Hebrew: בית הכנסת יוסף-אבד‎) in Tehran as originally appeared during the 1950s before its restoration. The person who had just completed returning a Torah to the ark will stand as a reference to the size of the main hall. The main hall of the Synagogue was built and completed in the early 1950s. She was a very ornate and majestic house of worship which will soon fall silent after enjoying hearing prayers recited for almost seventy years.

 

 

Yusef Abad Synagogue (Persian: Kenise e Yusef Ábád کنیسه یوسف آباد‎, Hebrew: בית הכנסת יוסף-אבד‎) in Tehran as it appeared after its restoration work. It was with the help of local community leaders headed by Avraham Yusian, the construction of the new facade was completed in October 1965. She was a very ornate and majestic house of worship which will soon fall silent after enjoying hearing prayers recited for almost seventy years. The brightened tiles and golden hue will unfortunately turn a pale shadow of itself as there will be no prayers to give her the joys she had exalted in over her years.

Yusef Abad Synagogue (Persian: Kenise e Yusef Ábád کنیسه یوسف آباد‎, Hebrew: בית הכנסת יוסף-אבד‎) in Tehran as it appeared after its restoration work. It was with the help of local community leaders headed by Avraham Yusian, the construction of the new facade was completed in October 1965. She was a very ornate and majestic house of worship which will soon fall silent after enjoying hearing prayers recited for almost seventy years. The brightened tiles and golden hue will unfortunately turn a pale shadow of itself as there will be no prayers to give her the joys she had exalted in over her years.

 

 

Iran did not exist in the year 1900 as all the way back then it had a name that most will recognize and for the Jews had a varied history where it went from savior to creeping to the edge of committing genocide against the Jewish People except for the bravery of one Jewess, Queen Esther. All the way back as recently as March 20, 1935 the nation was known as Persia. This name of Persia could be traced back to Cyrus the Great, the leader of Persia who conquered Babylonia and granted the Jews the right to return to their homelands and rebuild their holy Temple which many Jews chose to do while some of their brethren remained in Persia. Years later when Persia was ruled by King Ahasuerus (Xerxes I) the Grand Vizier, Haman the Agagite persuaded King Ahasuerus that the Jews were plotting against his rule and needed to be dealt with. This seems to be a repeating theme and almost always leads to someone coming up with the idea that murdering the Jews will make their nation greater, and the order was issued. The problem was that after the King created a vacancy after executing his wife for refusing his orders and generally insulting his authority for which he held a beauty contest, hopefully a contest which took into consideration more than beauty as that had worked so well with Vashti. Well, he chose Esther who the night before the order was to be carried out bravely entered the King’s court without having been invited, punishable by death, begged the King’s attention and broke the news that if his Grand Vizier Haman’s order was to be carried out they could start with her as she was also a Jew. Haman and his sons were executed on the very gallows they would have murdered the Jews of Persia. Haman, Hamas, I wonder, could there be a connection?

 

On March 21, 1935 Reza Shah Pahlavi officially renamed Persia changing the name to Iran. There are two very different theories for the change. One refers to numerous ancient references varying from the Sassanid, the Zoroastrianism, the Romans and other historical references mostly to deal with language. A more modern take takes the date and the rise of the Nazis to power in Germany and the theory of a master race, the Aryans, or the Persian word for the racial designation, Iran. The actual reason is likely was only honestly known to Reza Shah Pahlavi and he will not be giving us any hints. Another item while we are comparing modern day Iran and the Aryans from World War II as a potential enemy; the only war which Iran had fought directly was, to their credit, something which will seldom be found in these editorials in any source, was as a result of Iraqi initiated assaults as Saddam Hussein attempted to grab the Iranian oil fields. That war lasted near to a decade where some of the most horrific and destructive tactics were utilized by both sides. Despite the Iraqi military’s reputation as one of the largest and best trained and equipped in the Middle East outside Israel, Iran held them at bay and often made gains but eventually the war resembled a World War I trench warfare than world war highly mobile and technical war. The most remarked attack in this horrific war came when the Iranians needed to clear minefields and needed to do so with some degree of speed so a fairly brutish and head-on system was necessitated. The Iranians initially attempted to stampede mules and donkeys across the minefields but once the first animal struck a mine the others would scatter and run back the direction they had come from. This led to one of the most disturbing tactics where children were volunteered and upon their death their parents were financially compensated for their patriotic donation to the war efforts. The children were given plastic keys which they were told would unlock the door to heaven for them. In response to the condition of the returned remains led to the wrapping of the children in wet blankets so as to retain their parts when they hit a mine. Such fanaticism and willingness to sacrifice for the religious leadership was horrific and also showed a commitment almost beyond rational belief and which shows the length the Iranians might resort to against an enemy.

 

The question remains as to whether President Obama is saving the world from a war with Iran with his deal or allowing Iran to build up their military and potentially arm themselves with an arsenal of nuclear weapons, potentially thermonuclear warheads and the ICBMs with which to deliver them anywhere on the globe. They may even develop ICBM missiles capable of irregular flight characteristics making anti-missile systems near useless in preventing their striking their targets. Additionally, the Iranians could readily develop cruise missiles and master the ability to launch them from freighter container ships as they have done with some of their fifteen-hundred to two-thousand mile largely unguided rockets, or possibly a poorly guided missile. Of course, if the rocket has a nuclear warhead, exactly how accurate does one need to be? I mean, as long as you strike within a few miles from the intended region and, just as with hand grenades and horseshoes, close counts. What is most worrying is how the situation came to this juncture with the sanctions being weakened by President Obama allowing Iran to continue to limp along while the President and the State Department Team, which included a number of the same people who were responsible for the agreement with North Korea which led directly to their becoming nuclear armed nation, and Secretary of State Kerry appeared to trip over each other seeing who could surrender point after point and succumb to Iranian demands the fastest. The sign that Iran is about to use a fair amount of funds which will represent but a drop in the bucket of the one-hundred-fifty-billion-dollars being unfrozen and gifted to the Mullahs and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei as they have already made arrangement to purchase Russian S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems, one-hundred-fifty Chinese Chengdu J-10 sophisticated jet fighters with Israeli avionics and finally, two-hundred-fifty highly-advanced Russian Sukhoi-Su-30MK1 heavy-fighter-bombers as well as one-hundred IL78 MKI tanker aircraft; or simply put, Iran is purchasing an entire air force and air defense systems taking them from almost no air power worth mentioning to air superiority by comparison and potentially air superiority over the Kurds, Islamic State, and almost every nation in Northern Africa and many European nations as well. As the nations which Iran is most likely to face if they decide to expand their borders and acquire the airfields and staging areas of southern Iraq, as it appears that President Obama is fully supporting the IRGC forces and eventually other Iranian military forces to operate from within Iraq and Syria against the Islamic State with the United States providing air strikes and air support operations one has to wonder how President Obama might react should Iran decide to turn their forces southward and strike across the Kuwaiti and Saudi Arabian oil fields in response to what they could claim was mistreatment of Shiite Muslims by the two nations after incidents were instigated.

 

The other front we can expect to come from Iran is for their expanding the influence of Shia Islam across formerly Sunni strongholds spreading their control over Madrassas potentially replacing Wahhabi Madrassas after they have swarmed across the oil fields, complete their control through the Houthis of Yemen and then using a pincher attack from the north and the south in order to capture Mecca and Medina and thus controlling the heart of Islam. This would also complete Iranian control of the Red Sea and the Bab El-Mandab Strait. From that jumping off point it would not be difficult for Iran to then establish a beachhead from which to operate starting in Somalia and spreading from there through Eretria and Djibouti in order to spread through the Sudan and from Iraq and Saudi Arabia into the Sinai thus being on Egypt’s southern and eastern borders. Should Iran also desire to place a substantial force injected into Syria to assist Bashir al-Assad retaking the lands he has lost and using Hezballah to cement their control over Lebanon then Iran could have a northern and southern fronts on Israel and even more troubling should they also gain access to Gaza supplanting Hamas and Islamic Jihad in controlling the area. We can also expect that Iran will fortify their ground forces with purchases of armor most likely light armor to facilitate fast swarm style attacks overwhelming any defense an opponent would be likely to have at any front relying on lighter resistance and by overwhelming the initial positions and driving deeper into any nation they intended to strike thus appearing unstoppable and gaining a perceived position of strength which would also give the Islamic State considerable challenge especially when one considers that Iran will have a very well-armed air force, something completely missing in the Islamic State’s arsenal of abilities. The likelihood that President Obama would take any position opposing any Iranian moves in the entirety of the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) as such would be viewed as Iran simply doing exactly what President Obama desired, Iran stabilizing the entirety of the Islamic world, and what better way of being the hegemonic power than to also control all of the valuable lands and suppressing every potential adversary.

 

It would not be a complete surprise if should Iran manage to take control in Egypt that the Muslim Brotherhood might ‘see the writing on the wall,’ so to speak, and decide they had been in error about the lineage and correct successors of Muhammad and turn to back a Shia Islam. The truth is that there will either be a war with Iran or Iran will bring the war to each and every corner of the world one site at a time. The only question is at what point will their expansions be one bite too many and at what disadvantage will the world be in when facing the Iranian threat. History will point to the past decade and a half as the period when Iran could have been collared with minor losses and as being an opportunity squandered placing the world at risk. Once again, it appears the greatest threat building in the world is being left to Israel to stop. Let’s hope that Israel gets the necessary support of those others facing the same dangers or be willing to take on the task themselves. This is one time we can know that the United States has nobody’s back or if they do, then it is the worst of all possible scenarios placing Washington solidly behind Iran as President Obama had tilted his entire time in office, even with his efforts to place the Muslim Brotherhood ruling Egypt or turning a blind eye to Erdogan suppressing Turkey turning it into a Sharia state and potentially joining with Iran. At the very least, a combining of the regions and its people into an alliance of Israel, the Kurds, the Druze and the various Christian strongholds be brought together and aided to eliminate the Islamic State, thus putting Iran on notice that they should carefully consider their next moves as they will make all the difference in the world. As a result of removing the Islamic State, regions of Syria and northern Iraq will now be known as a state for the Kurds in the area originally promised the Kurds for Kurdistan at the end of World War I but not fulfilled due to the Mosul oil fields and politics as usual. The Druze will likely be granted some degree of autonomy within those areas in Syria where they reside and the refugees should attempt to put their lives and country back together and learn to live with a multi-ethnic nation. Further, as Hezballah has shown so much concern for Syria perhaps they can live there and maybe the Bekaa Valley but the rest of Lebanon is to be a Christian refuge free and resolute to act with favor on the Christians of the entire area and make a nation from the ruins left by Hezballah. Such a solution would be so nice and clean which is why it is unlikely to come into fruition. As Winston Churchill told the British Parliament “You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.” and additionally from his writings from “The Gathering Storm,” “If you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed; if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds are against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than live as slaves.” May some heed the warnings that many in the leadership positions in Israel be joined by those in Europe, in France, in Germany, in Great Britain, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and even Greece raise their voices and call for those who cherish the G0d of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob not succumb to the forces of those of Abraham, Ishmael and Mohammad, Amen.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 4, 2015

What is Already Resulting From the Iran Deal?

Filed under: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,Act of War,Administration,al-Qaeda,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Article Five,Ayatollah Khamenei,Bab-el-Mandeb,Bashir al-Assad,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Calaphate,Caliphate,Chapter Seven Security Council Resolution,Chemical Weapons,China,Chinese Pressure,Civil War,Civilization,Clan,Communism,Conflict Avoidnce,Congress,Consequences,Coverup,Defend Israel,Dhimmi,Dictator,Domestic NGOs,Egypt,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Extreme Leftist,Extreme Right,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,France,Germany,Government,Great Britain,Hate,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,IRGC,ISIS,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamists,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jihad,John Kerry,Kurdish Militias,Kurds,Leftist Pressures,Meaning of Peace,Media,Middle East,Military Intervention,Munich Accord of 1938,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Muslims,Mustafa Kemal Atatürk,Myth,NATO,Neville Chamberlain,North Korean Threat,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Ottoman Empire,P5+1,Pakistan,Political Identity,Politicized Findings,Politics,President for Life,President Obama,Rebel Forces,Rebel Forces,Recep Tayyip Erdogan,Remove Sanctions,Rocket Attacks,Russia,Sanctions,Saudi Arabia,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Security Council,Sharia,Shiite,Smiling Cheshire Man,State Department,Supreme Leader,Syria,Syrian Military,Threat of War,Threat of War,Tribe,Turkey,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,Uranium Enrichment,War,Weapons of Mass Destruction,Western World,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,World War I,Yemen,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:16 AM
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There are already sales being arranged despite the arms embargo not being lifted for five years. Does anyone believe these sales are being scheduled for anything longer than immediately after the money is in the bank? You have probably heard about the Russian sale of the S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems which was prevented a while back by pressure from Israel for Russia to respect the existing United Nations arms embargo. Well, according to Iran that United Nations Arms Embargo was lifted the minute the agreement was reached and signed, well, signed by Russia, China, Iran, France, Germany, and Great Britain and passed by the United Nations Security Council as a Chapter Seven binding resolution so no longer necessary for the United States to sign the agreement as the United Nations has made it binding on every United Nations member. The United States could still decide as a policy not to sell arms to Iran and could even place trade sanctions on nation who do sell arms to Iran; but this would simply leave the United States open for a suit for impeding free trade. Meanwhile Russia has closed the S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems and the Chinese have struck a deal to sell Iran one-hundred-fifty Chengdu J-10 sophisticated jet fighters with Israeli avionics and finally, so far, back to Russia who is set to sell Iran two-hundred-fifty highly-advanced Sukhoi-Su-30MK1 heavy-fighter-bombers as well as one-hundred IL78 MKI tanker aircraft which with the Chinese aircraft providing tactical air cover and the Su-30s figured for both bombing and long-range intercepts or electronic interference to foil ground interceptors the Iranians could bring a heavy air assault with air refueling extending the range bringing much of MENA and Europe within range of air assault. This as well as the advancing Iranian missile technology increasing range and accuracy provides Iran with just one more method for bringing Egypt, Israel, Turkey and beyond within Iranian range for multiple assault combining sufficient assault vehicles to overwhelm any defensive system no matter how many stages and overlap exists or the number of aircraft which can be put into the air to assist with the defense. Within two years Iran will have full range ICBMs with greater range than their present ballistic missiles and even threshold continental ballistic missiles which can reach beyond Paris and with a limited warhead weight even reach London with a reasonable degree of accuracy.

 

Even the limited warhead load limit permitting these missiles reaching London they could still carry nuclear warheads once Iran masters a modicum of miniaturization of an atomic bomb, such a device could conceivably strike London thus bringing every European capital within range with the exceptions of Ireland and Portugal. Does this make any of those nations who have been criticizing Israel for sounding the alarm still feel comfortable? Saudi Arabia feels so confident that they have confirmed the standing of their relationship with Pakistan that should they require nuclear weapons on the quick and quiet that the Pakistani government remembers the debt owed the Saudi Royal family for financing much of their crash nuclear emergency program to equalize their standing against a newly nuclear armed India. So, please do not interpret the silence from Saudi Arabia as being a sign of their comfort with the newly entry of Iran as virtually the next nuclear armed nation as they are not at peace about such an occurrence. Neither is Egypt at ease with this situation as is evident from their assisting Saudi Arabia in their attempts to assist the exiled government of Yemen to retake their nation from the Iranian armed Houthis who broke out of their tribal mountain areas which the arms and support of Iran which provided them with superior weaponry and training making their military abilities far exceed their previous abilities. With the armaments which the Iranians are going to be capable of providing their proxies in the near future could alter a number of conflicts and even the rule of one nation over the coming months or at the longest a year or two. The immediate nation under threat is obviously Yemen followed likely by Iraq then either Lebanon or Syria.

 

Additionally with the recent agreement between Turkey and the United States to fight against those forces challenging the Syrian rebels which to the average Western citizen, especially those in the United States, such a deal would imply they would be targeting the Islamic State but initial reports would imply that the initial targeting has been against the Kurdish forces. This comes on top of thus far unconfirmed reports that United States has been charging areas where Islamic State was operating but after-mission reports showed that the strikes struck areas immediately before Islamic State forces advanced into these areas. These unconfirmed reports tend to lend credence that orders were given to assist the Islamic State in areas where they border Kurdish controlled areas. These reports come along with the report that Turkey has finally allowed for the United States to fly missions from airbases in Turkey. That makes all of this appear to almost make sense, especially since the Kurdish party made sufficient headway taking a respectable number of seats which preventing President Erdogan’s PKK Party from attaining their usual majority of seats making it incapable of making a coalition by itself. This has led to some very distasteful moves by Erdogan including attempting to strip the Kurdish Parliamentary members of their immunity from prosecution so that he can bring charges against them and once they have been removed in sufficient numbers after speedy trials and their party disgraced then claim that no coalition is able to be reached and have new elections in which without the Kurdish party’s influence the PKK should easily gain their usual position of being a one party coalition and complete the conversion of Turkey from the free society that Mustafa Kemal Ataturk transformed Turkey to after the fall of the Ottoman Empire was disbanded after its having been on the losing side of World War I and make it basically a dictatorship with Erdogan as their President for life with absolute powers. This result is supported fully by the Turkish branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.

 

Should Erdogan succeed in completing his refashioning Turkey after his own image, then comes the big question, which side will Erdogan fall this time the question is given and he needs to choose once the Kurds have been ejected out of Syria and possibly Turkey as well, placing the fortunate Kurds making their way to norther Iraq, and Erdogan can either attempt to hide in what he believes fortress Turkey or he can choose Islamic State, a very risky group with which for Erdogan to align, or align with Bashir al-Assad and the Iranian Mullahs and Supreme Leader, an alignment Erdogan once played with but pulled back when trouble began at home needing his full efforts to resolve. Should Turkey align with Iran and come into a symbiosis that could place NATO in danger of having to support Turkey if they were to become involved in an Iranian war against Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Gulf States, Jordan and even, believe it or not, Israel and requests NATO assistance, then what does the rest of Europe and the United States do as NATO members and treaty bound to assist Turkey in any armed struggle. Would NATO refuse because the war is not a threat to Turkey itself and is being fought far from Turkish lands and thus Turkey is not under threat of invasion and their people would be safe if Turkey simply ended their offensive invasion against a nation previously not hostile to Turkey or actually even Iran or any of their neighbors until outside influences forced issues such as in the Yemeni Civil War where Iran has armed the Houthis against the government. The Middle East will explode in ten different ways once Iran can announce or be suspected of having manufactured nuclear weapons which would make Iran a hegemonic threat to the entirety of not just the Middle East but much of the rest of MENA and Europe not to mention the large chunk of Asia which would become threatened from any Iranian designs in their direction. Then, within a short period of time they will have mastered further rocket technology allowing their development of ICBMs.

 

As it is, both North Korea and Iran have orbited satellites which travelled on a south polar orbit and have already practiced and sent satellites with payloads sufficient to represent an EMP size and weight nuclear warhead such that they circled over the United States entering from the south perfectly in the hole in the radar and intercept sites which is a known soft spots in defenses yet are being ignored by Congress despite some warnings by military members. There are a number of articles which deal with these threats as follows: Center for Security Policy Jim Woolsey: Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) is existential threat to America from July 30, 2013, which means this possible threat was known from long before the negotiations with Iran were finalized and we appeared to have a rather cavalier attitude at best, and Experts: Iran Now a Nuclear-Ready State, Missiles Capable of Hitting US By William R. Graham, Henry F. Cooper, Fritz Ermarth, and Peter Vincent Pry from Sunday, Feb 1, 2015, and finally Op-Ed: EMP Blackout Could Be Closer than You Think by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry and Ambassador to the Negotiation on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, former Director of Central Intelligence, former Undersecretary of the Navy and Co-Chair of the EMP Coalition Jim Woolsey from November 07, 2013. This is only one manner in which Iran (or North Korea) could use an alternate system which involves firing a single stage and likely solid fuel missile from within a freighter or cargo container ship. Iran has proven this as not only a possibility, but an actual usable tactic which they tested firing missiles from the Caspian Sea deep into the Iranian desert in the southern regions which were furthest distance from the ship repeatedly and have become extremely proficient. Such an attack could be carried out from any coastal area on the United States including from the Gulf of Mexico utilizing that very same blind area in the United States defenses and would reach the central location of the United States then shoot up to the necessary altitude and detonate knocking out the transformers almost from the Atlantic coast to the Pacific coast and from Texas on northward into central Canada leaving a large percentage of the United States to die over the first year and the likelihood that the system would be returned to service would take at least a decade and very possibly several decades. The scenario has been known and the military has taken some elementary steps but is mostly depending that their equipment already being hardened. This would work for an interim period as their generator trucks and backup generators would permit their bases to function short term. The military also realize that they would at some point have to return to the civilian power grid and that is where their problems would begin. Food preservation would have an initial problem but it would take military intervention to even begin to truck food from farms to the cities. Societal cohesion would be disrupted and the cities would become war zones where the gangs would have the initial upper hand as they are the ones with weapons.

 

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories.

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories.

 

 

The problem with the Iranian nuclear deal is on so many levels that one can hardly know where to begin. Listing the obvious ramification of freeing up over one-hundred-fifty-billion-dollars and infusing the Iranian coffers will have long reaching ramifications. Believing that the majority of these funds will be used to relieve the suffering of the poorest in Iranian society is a bit Pollyannish as they have already spent almost half the incoming cash on weapons from Russia and China alone. These purchases are sufficient to start a formidable Air Force even if one were to be starting from scratch. About the only items not on their shopping list are training aircraft for the pilots to start their learning with. One must assume that the Iranians will be using whatever aircraft remained in their inventory as trainers and then assigning pilots according to their abilities. The Iranians had stated quite blatantly and fiercely that their plans were to install their latest and greatest centrifuges to use in their cascades and start production of enriched uranium immediately. President Obama has mislead the American public when he stated that the Iranians would not have any uranium enriched to the twenty-percent level which is one step from HEU (highly enriched uranium) which was presumably making the world safe from Iran being capable of making sufficient quantities of HEU without the inspectors reaching an inspection date and then they would easily catch Iran if there had been any cheating as there simply were too many steps before they could produce weapons grade uranium.

 

This assumption was made on the theory that the Iranians would need at least two centrifuge cascades running around the clock for Iran with the centrifuges permitted by the agreement, as President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry figured, would take Iran close to a year. The problem this poses is simple, these newest centrifuges that Iran plans on installing can take the three-percent uranium and run it through a cascade which would appear nearly identical to the cascades with the older centrifuges unless somebody did a close inspection which would require knowledge of exactly what each version looked like and exactly how to tell them apart. The only matter they could easily discern would be that all the centrifuges were of the same variety and had recently been tested and verified safe for use. A cascade of the newest and greatest centrifuges, if information we have seen is correct, arranged in a cascade in an identical manner they would be capable of taking three-percent or slightly higher such as five percent, both of which are levels they are permitted to have in their stores and from which they will be permitted to run through what for all intents and purposes appears to be a standard cascade which would only produce approximately twenty-percent to twenty-five-percent enriched uranium. With the newest centrifuges in a similar cascade, which would not in and of itself arouse any superstition, the Iranians would be capable, with a few minor adjustments; to produce weapons grade ninety-plus-percent HEU in one run. That is one run taking three to five percent uranium and making HEU bomb ready uranium in a single run. Such is the difference between the earlier centrifuges and their latest designs and the agreement permits further studies and designing of even more efficient centrifuges which the world can feel guaranteed will be put into service once it proves to be efficient and sturdy thus reducing the time required to reach weapons grade uranium.

 

The agreement which we have all seen and which can be viewed in an easy to read format provided by a Russian outlet and translated to English and edited by Beyond the Cusp to remove wasteful formatting which made the agreement nearly impossible to follow is titled Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации which we assumed meant “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Vienna,” dated 14 July 2015. The problem starts when we find out that there is a second agreement which was formulated through indirect communications with both sides sending their communication via the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and never negotiating directly. This apparent exercise in insanity had a very good and deceitful purpose, neither side could reveal the context of the deliberations between the other’s side with the IAEA as such negotiations are guaranteed secret and secure. Where the White House could give out their versions of the negotiations but not the items which were permitted them under an oath of secrecy, which in this particular case the White House will have developed morality and will observe their promises of silence. What makes this situation all the more convoluted is that we cannot know what the final agreement stated and it is entirely possible that the entirety of the White House conversation might very well start with an outline with stipulations, restrictions, requirements and establishing a serious and intense inspection routine including immediate snap inspections of every nuclear site, working or idled by the deal such that the starting demands would even satisfy Senator Tom Cotton. The entirety of the rest of the White House negotiations with Iran might then consist of a series of ‘yes’ and ‘no’ statement with a number interspersed and maybe even a few word phrase but nothing which could lead one to any conclusions. The two items you will be guaranteed to never see would not be the Iranian initial expressions of acceptable conditions as their initial description of their side and its desires and expectations nor would you see the final document and its stipulations, rights and requirements on both sides.

 

Some of the items which we have learned in the weeks since the initial agreement was released with its numerous different variations as each side took their own liberties when translating it to their own language and liking. We have found out that the United States will be providing protection from cyber-attacks on the Iranian nuclear projects. The United States is sworn to protect Iran from and air assault on their territories. The United States will share with Iran the blueprints and specification of the United States’ most advanced centrifuge. What other schematics and diagrams the United States has promised to provide the Iranians remains a mystery. When this agreement finally leads to the inevitability it has put into motion, then the biggest question will be on which side has the United States chosen to support, the Iranian Axis which by then will control: the bulk of the world’s oil coming from the Middle East, the Straits of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Waterway which also controls both the Israeli port to the Indian Ocean and beyond to the Pacific Ocean at Eilat and the gem of the Egyptian economy the Suez Canal making it all but useless, and a large swath of land stretching from the Indian Ocean at it eastern edge to the Mediterranean Sea at its western tip. Iran likely may have defeated the Islamic State with United States providing the air power to assist in ending that Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda offshoot which initially appeared unstoppable.

 

Bab el Mandeb Strait located at the southern end of Red Sea near western edge of Yemen which controls land overlooking the waterway which allows for blocking passage from Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea traffic from through Egyptian financial collapse without fees collected from the Suez Canal made useless if Bab el Mandeb shuttered also making the Port at Eilat Israel closed from its access to Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and all of Asia and the west coast of the United States, Canada and South and Central America.

Bab el Mandeb Strait located at the southern end of Red Sea near western edge of Yemen which controls land overlooking the waterway which allows for blocking passage from Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea traffic from through Egyptian financial collapse without fees collected from the Suez Canal made useless if Bab el Mandeb shuttered also making the Port at Eilat Israel closed from its access to Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and all of Asia and the west coast of the United States, Canada and South and Central America.

 

 

So, one has to wonder about what it was exactly that did stop them, was it the requirement that they rule these peoples they had now conquered and had gained a home-front which required order and allowing the farmers and others to tend to their business in peace and with the guarantee that the police would keep the peace. At some point the battle will break down to which truly is the stronger horse, the young stallion that burst onto the scene seemingly out of nowhere, their leader’s name is Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali Muhammad al-Badri al-Samarrai (in Arabic إبراهيم عواد إبراهيم علي محمد البدري السامرائي) and now simply known as al-Baghdadi; on February 2, 2004 he had been captured near Fallujah and been detained at Camp Bucca detention center under his name Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al-Badry and was held in Iraq until some time in December 2004 when he was released, as ‘low level prisoner’ after which during the Syrian civil insurrection he came upon opportunities to use his skill to catapult his group from simply an al-Qaeda cell into a self-sustaining entity controlling a large swath of land and across Syria and into central Iraq. Eventually Iran and the Islamic State will necessarily meet head to head, mano-a- mano and then the best force will prevail and one headache will have been eliminated by an adversary doing the world a favor. By the time this draw-down has occurred, Iran will have attained nuclear weapons but will not use them against the Islamic State as their use will be reserved for a larger and more important enemy, namely Israel and the United States, but not another Islamic nation as these it is best to convert the population after proving the superiority where Allah visited victory on the Shiite troops and then offer the fighters from the vanquished side to magnanimously accept them into the forces for truth, the forces favored by Allah who gave them victory. Should these fighters accept the offers remember that they should be placed at the front and be the tip of the spear where Allah can test their conviction and faithfulness and if theirs is a true conversion then Allah will grant them the commission of heroic deeds and if not they will join their former officers who were tried for their crimes against Allah through their organizing and sending brave but misguided soldiers to execute the plans to visit harm on the true forces if Islam. These are the perceived gains received from the Islamic State war with the Shiites of Iran and Iraq along with Hezballah completing the forces of Shia Islam who do appear to be the superior force which has gained the blessings from Allah.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 13, 2015

A Chance America Riding Off Into the Sunset

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There has been speculation about what role the United States will play on the world’s stage as threats abound of various severities and natures almost everywhere one looks and still we hear from United States President Obama that he awaits final strategy and complete plans laid out before him from the Pentagon before he can act. This excuse from President Obama for not committing to some plan of action sounds unrealistic, especially as it is well known even personally after having served in the United States Army, the Pentagon has plans, War Scenarios, for near any contingency which might arise. This makes President Obama’s excuse of not having any plans before him sound quite lame. Even had the Pentagon not had an exact battle plan in place when ISIS first reared their ugly heads and started chopping heads, especially since some belonged to the United States, you can bet the Pentagon went to their files and had cobbled together six ways come Sunday for dealing with ISIS which probably had added contingencies for removing Bashir al-Assad from power and potentially addressing the Iranian nuclear issue as well. The one thing is, they were not short of was plans. The only thing necessary would be for the President to choose one and they would be implementing within forty-eight hours. Each set of plans would have in the full layout exactly which units were trained for that exact mission and which of those units was at full strength and had a ready status. They would have decided whether or not to use the ready actions units of which at least two brigades of Army would be on immediate deployment status and I can assume the Marines, Navy and Air Force have similar plans for immediate response to any call up.

 

We can trust the Pentagon has plans and that all the President need do is pick up that phone he claims he could use to call for action if Congress did not pass his legislation in a timely manner and instead call the Pentagon and request their actions and plans be presented. Then he could pick up that pen with which he threatened Congress to use to write Executive Orders and use it to sign off on a plan of action and then write an Executive Memo to the leaders in Congress informing them of the impending actions and the Pentagon would take care of the rest. There is one contingency for which the Pentagon likely has plans but would be unable to implement them until the President ordered them to follow and support somebody else’s initiation of actions. That is President Obama’s famous plan of leading from behind, better known as following which often is the action of those too cowardly to commit to actions and stick their neck out, something which would be risky against ISIS but the President can go ahead and stick his neck out, the military would be out in front and would do or die even knowing that in the end the President would claim the glory, after all he took out Osama bin Laden haven’t you heard. Leading from behind is not an option on this crisis but President Obama is not one to make definitive decisions which might have him owning his actions. President Obama would rather simply follow and take only that action was dictated by somebody else, the United Nations, the European Union, NATO led by another member, actually President Obama would follow anybody, well, anybody but Israel. Were Israel to engage ISIS, it would not be a complete surprise if President Obama gave weapons to ISIS through some obscure middleman leader of another nation who might be supportive of ISIS though doing so would be risky. But until somebody else takes the lead we can expect more excuses over action from the White House.

 

One wonders if President Obama has even requested the Pentagon produce their plans for dealing with ISIS and said plans actually called for the United States to sit this round out. We can figure that the United States is loath to send troops back into Iraq after being pulled out by President Obama in a manner that military planners had informed the President was a premature action which would cause more problems than it could solve. The one problem leaving a residual force would not have addressed was President Obama winning reelection on his promise to bring our boys home come something (keeping it family friendly) or high water. The Pentagon may have been requested to provide plans which would include supporting UN or EU or NATO action taken to facilitate leading from behind at which time the Pentagon action would most likely be exactly what we are seeing, doing nothing waiting for somebody else to take the initiative so they could follow thus leading from behind again allowing President Obama to risk nothing which actually making a choice and lead would mean. But this begs a question; what happens if the United States is about to return to her historic role of isolationism where the United States trades with her friends and with her enemies but on a lesser scale and dares not interfere in worldly matters allowing them to work themselves out without United States interventions. United States entering an isolationist perspective would only allow her deployment of troops to be limited and almost always to support trade more than worrying about such trivialities as world balance and defeating evil, that’s better left to the knights of Europe who have always done this before. Of course this before was before the United States encouraged Europe to stop their militarism and that the United States would spread her umbrella and cover them so they could turn to less harmful pursuits such as taking on debt and squabbling amongst each other, just this time no world wars starting in Europe, that was the deal the United States imposed on Europe. But now it appears the United States may be folding up that umbrella and claiming not to see the storm clouds rising out of the Middle East, a denial which is difficult to swallow.

 

The going theory is that the United States will return to the role of the world’s police and enforce the good behavior between the nations extending force projection where needed. That is not the historic tendency of the United States after any major conflicts; her historic stance has been a laissez-faire attitude of simple sitting back keeping her hands politely to herself, which is the norm from the United States. The average American knows little about world affairs and cares even less. The average American was defined by President Clinton in his initial campaign for the Presidency with his slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid.” The stupid in this case was George Herbert Walker Bush (the elder and first Pres Bush) and the elections proved it as President Bush did not gain reelection largely due to his having broken his promise of, “Read my lips; no new taxes,” and then was forced to raise taxes by a Democrat Congress in order to get his budget passed with the military spending not slashed by the Congress. The election of President Clinton over reelecting President Bush was all about domestic policies over foreign policies.

 

You start to talk about foreign policy with the average American and their eyes gloss over and they drift into some zombie like state all catatonic and in shock after the first two or three sentences. Talk about immigration, taxes, domestic hot-button issues, government spending of which all is unnecessary except those they are or will receive, and the economy then you will engage in a sometimes heated debate. Talk about money and they will listen, talk about something happening in the Mille East or Asia and they will repeat what the media stated, that is bad, that is good and those people sure have as rough time, but then they will turn it back to how the government needs to take care of things at home first. The average American has all the sympathy you could ever ask for and they will donate more to charities than any other peoples on earth but when it comes to sending their young men off to fight in what they mostly see as somebody else’s war, then they need a ton of convincing and President Obama surfs waves, seldom makes waves when it comes to world politics. The President came from a past as a community organizer, read rabble rouser causing trouble to force government actions usually spending more money of which they get the lion’s share, and knows little outside of Chicago, let alone outside of the United States. He treats foreign policy as if it was a plague and to his outlook, as well as many Americans outlooks, simply does not go past the horizon and possibly not past the water’s edge.

 

We can bet that should the Democrat candidate become the next President, they too will do little as they can in foreign policy. We need remember that the Democrat candidate will not likely be Hillary Clinton but more likely somebody not even announced as of yet. Ms. Clinton’s campaign van has the wheels flying off and the engine is about to quit. The van is driving down the road to oblivion. But what if it is the Republican candidate, you inquire. There we need to find out who will take the lead and which ones do not survive the first three or four actual primary votes. We can make some specific and general observations. Rand Paul is an isolationist libertarian who believes if the United States hurts nobody then nobody would target the United States. Of all the governors and ex-governors running, only Jeb Bush might be a President inclined to use military force and actually have an active foreign policy. Others have claimed that they will repair the United States relations with Israel as well as Egypt and Saudi Arabia largely undoing some of the changes made under President Obama. Still, such actions do not necessarily mean a return into Iraq to defeat ISIS unless it becomes a dire threat to the stability of the Middle East. Only Senator Marco Rubio has direct experience with foreign policies as he in on the Senate Intelligence Committee which gives him access beyond the average Senator under the need to know doctrines. Almost any Republican candidate becoming President would easily take four months to a year to become fully briefed on every hot-spot that the Pentagon had plans and counter plans and different options under each plan and time granted each. Such amounts of information is why the President has a Secretary of Defense whose staff is divided so they can divide their work and attend to each contingencies. Still, the final decisions and person who must form the overall foreign police and who has to call in the troops for action when deemed to be necessary lies with the President and the President alone. That is one of the reason it is said that it is lonely at the top. We still have no real available input that any of the Republican candidates would press for an interventionist approach to foreign policies.

 

Likely the most pressing foreign policy might already have their hands tied should President Obama make any Iran nuclear deal somehow into a treaty without gaining Congressional affirmation. Such a decade long deal would actually prevent the next administration from taking any actions without smoking gun style proof that Iran had broken the agreement but as the agreement includes steps all the way through twelve years with little margin for change in the terms or even the terminology during that time period with the Iranians presumably free to complete their desired goal of deliverable nuclear warheads and the ICBMs on which to place them after ten years according to President Obama’s own admission which would leave them at a minimum two years to produce as many weapons systems as they are able starting with an unknown amount of LEU (low enrichment Uranium) with which to work and all of that Uranium a simple two day’s processing to be made weapons grade HEU (highly enriched Uranium over 90% purity) and then they would be capable of molding the cores and producing actual weapons. All of this is a guess of what the eventual agreement will appear to say and Iranian compliance to the terms and inspection protocols as well as their answering numerous questions about previous work performed largely by the military which Iran insists is an unprecedented and unnecessary invasion of their privileges and privacies. So, when it comes to the Iranian nuclear program the next President may be acting with his hands tied and possibly looking at a negative response from a nuclear armed Iran claiming their dominion over Iraq and dismissing the need for United States interference in their area of control which they will claim includes Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and who knows where else by January 21, 2017 when the next President takes office. After Iran there will be other situations such as Russia and their low-grade war with the Ukraine and its possibilities, China and their expansion Islands being built and potentially taking territorial control semi-legally over the entire South China Sea giving them control over one of the most active shipping lanes in the world. Speaking of choke points for shipping, Iran already has menacing control over the Straits of Hormuz where almost one third of the world’s oil is shipped by tankers and may through their proxies in Yemen, Houthis can also threaten to control the Bab-el-Mandeb which would cut off the southern exit of the Red Sea making the Suez Canal unusable and the Israeli southern port to the orient and Africa blockaded, a casus belli which could lead to a state of declared war by Iran on Israel and Egypt as both would have their shipping access to the world impeded illegally as Iran would have no other excuse other than they could close all shipping. These are just the top three and none of these includes the ISIS threat which may grow to the point where Iran and ISIS meet on equal footing with ISIS having gained an Air Force even if of a limited nature, and tactics which are prone to working, at least working well against the Iraqi army. ISIS has had far less success against the Kurdish Militias such as the Peshmerga (literally “one who confronts death”) and the People’s Protection Units (known as the YPG). These have held the northeast parts of Syria having an astonishing turning point in the city of Kobanê as well as the northern third or so of Iraq where the Kurdish forces saved thousands of Yazidi and whose Yazidi Militias have joined ranks with the Kurdish Militias. We could continue to the other continents and their probabilities for causing distress but that would leave Antarctica as probably the only safe haven if you desired no strife, or at least not yet.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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