Beyond the Cusp

September 6, 2014

ISIS and Other Foreign Crises not Obama’s Fault

President Obama has performed and executed his position of President of the United States of America exactly as the electorate that placed him in that office twice demanded of him. President Obama was elected to be the anti-Bush President. This meant in large part that he was to ignore foreign entanglements and never ever use American military might in foreign soils but solely as the last ditch effort to protect the United States should the nation come under attack on its own soil. The electorate sent that message in a loud and clear voice which erupted in ecstatic exuberance when President Obama chided Mitt Romney in their debates berating his answer claiming that Russia was America’s existential threat by correcting him and chided Romney telling him the 1980s wanted its foreign policy back. This one statement stood apart from the rest as the defining difference between Romney and Obama, one that has played out exactly how anyone writing a political thriller would have cast it with that statement becoming the sorrowful joke that it has proven to be. President Obama was elected to address problems on the home front and not only with but because he promised that he would bring all the soldiers home and refuse to redeploy them unless the entire world became inflamed by conflicts. Wherever President Obama may have failed the American people, he has not failed on the foreign policy front as he was reelected because he had withdrawn or had set dates by which American military force would be disengaged and return home never to be redeployed anywhere while President Obama was in the White House.

 

We were amongst those who even back in the 2008 Presidential elections sounded the alarms that the world was about to explode in violence, destruction and potential genocides and that the only force which could prevent the coming disasters was the United States. This claim was carefully crafted because of the fact that American force since World War II has been the force most beneficial and capable in the world and because America had little desire for conquest, the American military would always return sovereignty to the people indigenous to the nation involved and would remain in order to stabilize the nation guiding it towards inclusion in the Western world with the ideal of cooperation and mediation as the way to solve differences. This was most evident in the rebuilding and steady guidance and assistance which restored Germany and Japan to functioning nations with minimal force or presence and steadily reducing the American presence from their initial position as the enforcers of the rule of law while also routing out those who belonged to the hierarchy of German Nazis and Japanese who guided Japan into a military threat to the Pacific nations if not the entire world. President Obama did correctly point out that the world is in the twenty-first century and expressed the view that the world might have outgrown naked aggression and that the nations who were entrusted with the most major roles should set an example of cooperation and mediation and refrain from the use of brute force as Russian President Putin has displayed in the Eastern Ukraine and by annexing the Crimean Peninsula.

 

But if only President Putin advancing and swallowing up parts of the Ukraine were the only problem facing the world today. The most ominous threat facing the world today comes from the Middle East and has direct effect not only there but across North Africa and is threatening to sweep into, or even across, Europe and beyond. This is the specter of radicalized Islamist forces with the greatest threat at this moment being ISIS, or IS if one accepts their self-aggrandized title of Caliphate. Whether the title is earned or even applicable is not the problem, the genocidal murdering of entire towns and the wiping out of entire minority populations and even posing a threat to their fellow coreligionist Sunnis who any ISIS member believes is not sufficiently devout and the other slaughters are the problem. The use by ISIS of beheadings, crucifixions and other barbaric forms of punishment which were the custom over a thousand years ago and are mostly utilized by barbaric tribal forces which have failed to progress into the twentieth century, let alone the twenty-first century are the acts which are abhorred and need eradication by twenty-first century standards of civility. These practices which are being directed and imposed by the leadership of ISIS are not in use so as to properly apply the Quran but as a means to control and intimidate the people over whom ISIS has spread its deadly wings. Many of the leaders in ISIS were educated in Western universities and most have higher degrees, many in engineering or other sciences, and have obviously lived in the technologically advance Western World and lived in what would be regarded as a civilized atmosphere, though if I recall college through the haze my mind spent much of the time there, not completely civilized. The ISIS leadership has intentionally chosen to enforce the Quran in the most crude and barbaric forms pulled from Islam’s earliest days of conquest when Islam proved to be the preeminent force sweeping across the Middle East and North Africa and threatening to sweep into the heart of Europe only to be repulsed by the barest of fortunes. I pray that the ISIS leadership is not employing these tactics and barbarous acts as they believe they are required in order to return Islam to its former glory and give the Muslims the renewed ability to vanquish their foes on the battlefield and allow them to complete the sweeping glory bring the rest of the world to heed their edicts and bend to their commands.

 

If these are their motivations, then they should know that as soon as the West gets leadership from the people finally choosing their President to resolve the worldly threats, especially to end threats posed by barbaric pretenders who think if they are sufficiently brutal the world will cower before their greatness. The American people are slow to rise to threats from abroad but once they awaken and their sense of justice and righteousness has been incensed, there is nothing which is capable of withstanding the force of their indignation as it produces a righteous anger filling their soldiers with purpose and drive unparalleled in its force over any army in human history. The forces of the United States that broke the wills of the Barbary Pirates was but a compliment of Marines, one cannot compare the meaning of the full force of the United States from that early foray into international politics. President Obama was correct when advising that the world has entered the twenty-first century and that everything is different today. No longer does there need to be a soldier with his weapon in close proximity to a target to remove them from this earth, a drone piloted from well over the horizon is equally adept at delivering the same justice as any sniper. This has been proven quite well by President Obama as drone strikes have pretty much served as his weapon of choice and has shown a great propensity to use this impersonal weapon to remove problematic persons. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi should be very mindful that these drones fly very high, are almost impossible to hear and even more difficult to see, operate in daylight and the pitch dark of night, can see through rain or windswept sand, be piloted from just over the hill or from across the globe via satellite links, and can destroy you and everybody in that tent with you before you know your number has come up. And if the people of the United States stand united and have the will to commit their sons and daughters to guarantee your demise, well, just as Saddam Hussein or Osama ben Laden when you see them as Vice-President Biden opens up the Gates of Hell to allow you to pass within their domain. Enjoy America’s slumber for as long as it lasts because you will know as soon as it lifts what real determined warriors are capable of and how weak is your horse when reality comes knocking.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 24, 2014

What if ISIS Terrorists Have Access to a NATO Country’s Passports?

What would be the response from the leadership and citizens of the other NATO nations say if they realize that it would take only a small amount of effort for terrorist fighters while training to enter Syria could be granted passports from the NATO country where their training was conducted? This is not just some silly figment of an overactive imagination but an actual potentiality which may have already been realized. One must consider that one of the aims of ISIS and those assisting their Jihadist nightmares is to implant sleeper cells within European nations and especially within the United States. ISIS had made repeated references and threats to carry out attacks on the United States even more deadly than the al-Qaeda attacks on the World Trade Towers, Pentagon and a foiled assault brought down by the actions of the passengers in a determined and desperate breaching of the cockpit over a field outside Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. ISIS Leader and self-proclaimed Caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was a former prisoner held in the United States run Camp Bucca near Umm Qasr in Iraq released by President Barack Obama in 2009. His release was likely part of the winding down of the United States efforts in Iraq and simply part of the preparations for the closure of the detention facilities. Still, there are those who claim that his time spent in United States custody is behind his deep seated hatred and is what had fueled his burning desires to take revenge against his captors and the entirety of the American people. But how does al-Baghdadi’s hatred for the United States and the West in general translate to the possibility that ISIS trainees were possibly provided with passports from a NATO nation which would make their entrance into any European NATO country and from there possible ready access to the United States? That is where things get interesting and also affirm those who have suggested that Turkey’s membership in NATO be revoked as Turkey appears to have joined the jihadist efforts and turned against the core beliefs and mutual interests of the rest of the NATO alliance members.

 

The proof comes via evidence produced proving that Turkey has acted as a clearing house and operated training centers for future ISIS members and new recruits. Walid Shoebat has posted a video “showing the ISIS training centers in Turkey” on August 20, 2014. <a href=http://shoebat.com/2014/08/20/leaked-video-isis-training-center-turkey/</a> Walid Shoebat reported that “as far back as March,” there existed ISIS “training centers in Orfa, Ghazi Antab and Antakia (Antioch) set up by the Turkish government for more terrorists to be sent to Syria.” Within the video one hears the speaker calling to “Destroy and blow up our enemies, victory is near…young men, enroll, land and win…young men it’s our religion attack with your weapons and win…spread throughout the earth and raze the strongholds of the unbelievers.” This video makes a mockery of the claims by United States, European and other Western leaders who have yet dared to identify ISIS threats by their proper title, Jihadist terror. The most egregious example of oversimplification and missing the mark was the recent statement by President Obama stating, “The ISIL speaks for no religion. Their victims are overwhelmingly Muslim, and no faith teaches people to massacre innocents. No just god would stand for what they did yesterday and what they do every single day. ISIL has no ideology of any value to human beings…people like this ultimately fail. They fail because the future is won by those who build and not destroy.” Additionally, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey stated that, “ISIS will only truly be defeated when it’s rejected by the twenty-million disenfranchised Sunni that happen to reside between Damascus and Baghdad.” Such a naiveté which completely ignored the hundreds, if not thousands, who have flocked to the rallying cry declaring ISIS to be the new Caliphate and their apparent invincibility presupposes that a sizeable number of those twenty-million Sunni living between Baghdad and Damascus have not already joined ISIS if for no other reason than to survive and follow what they perceive as the strong horse. The few bombings which have assisted the brave and seasoned Kurdish Peshmerga Militias gain a routing to relieve some numbers of the besieged Yazidi and to retake the Mosul Dam has at least made a small start at turning the front around but it will take far more of the same continuing over a prolonged time-frame, something which President Obama may shy away from with the midterm elections approaching this fall.

 

As far as the distant future of ISIS one can only believe that they have overstretched their ability to hold supply lines and command and control coordinating their forces and thus will not be able to push further in the immediate future and may even face serious pushback providing Western nations, especially the United States, will continue to provide air support and provisions to keep the Kurds and potentially the Iraqi forces capable of continuing to operate at their full potential. For such a sustained effort it will be necessary for President Obama to face both the Congress and the American people and give a full accounting of the extent and the reasoning for the partial return of United States military efforts in Iraq even if these efforts are restricted to only air support and provisions to arm those fighting ISIS on the ground. Should there not be an effort by President Obama to express the United States intentions to fully support the forces engaging ISIS in Iraq to the American people then it is very probable that he does not intend to continue with the air strikes for much longer which would place the entire weight of support most likely on French and British air squadrons and the resupply might prove to be beyond anyone other than the United States to provide thus very possibly stymying any efforts by both the Kurds and the new Iraqi government. Such a failure would prove short-sighted and would lead to a disaster in the making. ISIS received a huge logistical advantage when they swept into Iraq and the Iraqi forces fled the battlefield leaving their supplies and literally tons upon tons of United States front line weaponry including armor, assault rifles, trucks and munitions enough to keep ISIS supplied for a respectable period probably extending a few months into the future. This is the minimal period for which those fighting against ISIS will need to be furnished with weapons, munitions and air support. Should ISIS not be contained in Iraq then the future of the region will be questionable and something the Western nations should be motivated to avoid. Further, it should become a top concern for Western intelligence resources to investigate whether any ISIS or other jihadists who were given training in Turkey by the Turkish government were provided with Turkish passports and if so, the names on the documents would be critical need to know information in order to protect their borders and homelands. This will be made all the more difficult as the United States as well as much of the rest of NATO have very poor and shallow intelligence within the jihadi ranks and even less human intelligence operatives in place and infiltrated into the ranks of ISIS. Further, relying on Turkey to be forthcoming would be a fool’s errand and a waste of Western efforts and resources. NATO should operate under the assumption that Turkey has joined with the jihadist forces and is no longer a reliable ally. Their membership in NATO needs to be reviewed and probably suspended for the safety of the rest of the NATO nations.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 30, 2014

Middle East War Imminent

The forces fighting under the banner of the terrorist army of Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) have swept across central Iraq and are only now facing any real opposition. This lack of resistance has emboldened ISIS as well as having provided them with advanced weapons systems which were abandoned by the Iraqi Army as they retreated, refusing to even engage the oncoming terrorist army. Only now has the Iraqi Army properly prepared to face the onrushing hordes by holding their ground around Baghdad. Much of the Western World has focused upon Baghdad with low expectations and have set attacking Jordan as their line in the sand. Former Israeli National Security Council director Yaakov Amidror commented on the situation Sunday expressing that, “It’s not just in Jordan’s interest, but in Israel’s as well, to work together to solve this problem.” The comments came amidst reports of Jordan deploying massive army forces on its Iraqi border Friday, including tanks, army vehicles, missile launchers and soldiers, citing the Arab news source Asharq Al-Aswat. Jordanian concerns are validated by calls from amongst the advancing ISIS forces for Jordanian King Abdullah’s execution.

 

Further aggravation has been caused by the ISIS leadership declaring themselves as a new Islamic Caliphate and defining the lands that they have taken by force as being a new Islamic State. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was given the title of Caliph which permits him to take whatever he desires and to do so by force if that is what is required. ISIS is also now declaring that they should now be referred to as simply the Islamic State and give them the deference usually reserved for recognized and established nations. Spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani released a statement to the press where he claimed, referring to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi being given the title of Caliph and the establishing ISIS as the Islamic State, “He is the Imam and Khalifah for the Muslims everywhere. It is incumbent upon all Muslims to pledge allegiance to and support him. The legality of all emirates, groups, states, and organizations, becomes null by the expansion of the Khalifah’s authority and arrival of its troops to their areas.” I guess that all has been said and done and we can expect any moment now for the Family Saud, the Emirs of Kuwait and the Emirates, President el-Sisi in Egypt, Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey and every other Sunni national leader to surrender their nations and pledge their troops to the new Islamic State and the great Khalifah Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Well, I guess this takes care of Jordan as obviously Jordanian King Abdullah II ibn al-Hussein will order his armies which are currently deployed in force and on high alert to stand down and take whatever is required of them by the new Khalifah al-Baghdadi including executing the King for his crimes against Islam which Khalifah al-Baghdadi has ordered. Well, then again, maybe not; and the same likely goes for Egyptian President Sisi, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, the Family Saud and any of the other “righteous leaderships” that currently rule by the will of Allah and their having most of the guns throughout the Sunni Muslim World, and we have yet to address the Shiite Islamic world which Khalifah al-Baghdadi has declared all Shiite Muslims to be heretics deserving of death.

 

So, what can we make of all this fury and bluster? Giving it some thought, we can likely conclude that ISIS has stretched their lines close to their limits without an new influx of fighters, and even more importantly, supply and logistics personnel which are more difficult to find as such positions are not the positions desired by the glory and martyrdom seekers and require intelligence and education if they are to be useful and as well organized as required. No army has ever run on all soldiers on the lines fighting and nobody bringing them supplies, food and all the other requirements for battle and survival. The age of plunder as you go is over and the only soldiers still employing such tactics are small specialized forces who are executing specific missions and targets and are not as concerned with taking and holding land. ISIS has declared their intent to transform the lands they have conquered into a state, even if it is a nonfunctional state for now, and that requires holding and defending the lands you possess and still providing for the troops to continue onward in your lust for complete power. Does this mean that ISIS is done and not going to proceed further? No, they will still likely be capable of launching attacks on the southern extremes of Iraq which they must take if only for the oil fields and a port to the open seas in order to trade that oil taking in monies they can then utilize for further conquest. They might even attempt to take on the Jordanian army. It would serve Jordan to announce if they have any assurances or agreements with Israel for their mutual defense before ISIS crosses their border and hostilities start. Warfare is easier to force your enemy to reconsider attacking you than it is to force them to end such an assault and disengage from the conflict on your front.

 

Are there any other options for ISIS if they should prove capable of capturing the southern parts of Iraq? There are basically three options, after they solidify their conquest of Iraq and have dealt with the fairly significant numbers of Shiites, they will have remaining on the lands they would then control. Demanding mass conversions to Sunni Islam would be attempted but if there are those who are respected within the Shiite community who refuse, that could result in a large segment also refusing to swear their allegiance to Sunni Islam and to follow Khalifah al-Baghdadi. Providing that either ISIS risked raising the general levels of ire towards them by murdering en-mass the Shiite population of Iraq, the option for what next would be completely taken care of by Iran who would necessarily declare Jihad against ISIS declaring them apostates, idolaters or heretics and another Iraq-Iran War would ensue and would be to the death. In such a scenario the only hope ISIS would have is if the rest of the Sunni Islamic world would answer their calls for unity against the Shiites and a final last war between these two largest branches of Islam. Should ISIS find another route whereby the Shiite population they would have conquered is not forced necessarily to convert and are not murdered en-mass, then they would face choices. Attacking Jordan runs the risk of also engaging Israel and possibly others from the Western nations though it would be very unlikely that the United States would do anything beyond perhaps some attempts to target leaders of ISIS for drone strikes, killing the head of the snake, so to speak. The other choices would be to strike either Kuwait or Saudi Arabia. These two options basically end with the same results, starting the general war between the Family Saud and the leadership of ISIS for control of the Sunni Islamic world. The Saudis would have the deeper pockets and would have the assistance of Western nations who would only likely demand a lower price on oil for some period which would help to stimulate their sluggish economies to climb out from the recession much more quickly and with less pain and austerity. At this point ISIS has the choice of which bad idea will they pursue. There still remains the final option, do nothing and consolidate their gains for the time being. Then once they have established this new Islamic State and gained recognition, and why should they not expect recognition as they are no worse a terrorist group than is Hezballah, Islamic Jihad, Hamas or Fatah and the Western nations have demanded Israel negotiate with or otherwise deal with those terror groups and give them a state of their own, why would ISIS be any different other than they are not attacking Israel yet. So, depending on the next move taken by ISIS, I’m sorry, the “Islamic State”, that will determine whether we are about to enter into a general Middle East War or continue with ever increasing terrorist strikes the world over and the first step to redrawing the Arab and Muslim world to represent reality and the tribal, clannish and sectarian differences establishing new nations which represent a pure citizenship with little or no multicultural citizenry such as was forced upon the Middle East after World War I by the Sykes–Picot Agreement which spawned much of the turmoil in the region ever since the imaginary and arbitrary lines were drawn seemingly free of any considerations or thought and completely at random as if by a child scrawling with multicolored crayons on the map of the Middle East.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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