Parliament and Assembly of Experts

 

Nobody is asking President Obama or Secretary of State Kerry what the United States is going to do once Russia, China, European Union, United Nation and the rest of the world have all already dropped their sanctions and are ready to deal and Iran rejects the deal, what is next? Surely the Iranians know that it is business as usual as soon as a signing date has been suggested for officially lifting all sanctions making Iran officially open for business. There will not be any manner or way the P5+1, United Nations or other entity will be capable of putting the cork back in the bottle and keeping the Djinni trapped inside; it will have been free and its bargain time opening Iran for business. All Iran need do is coast with all signs being that their Parliament and Assembly of Experts all approving the deal with each level having a smaller and smaller majority where at the second highest level of governance, the Assembly of Experts, a group of Imams and Mullahs who are tasked with the most important of tasks, appointing Supreme Leaders when necessitated and advising the current Supreme Leader. With the public image of Iran all reportedly approving the Nuclear Deal and even the United States straggling in after the political theater has run its course, the only individual who will have held decisive commentary will be the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

 

Whereas the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had commented being not that thrilled with the deal and potentially disapproving the deal, he still will have not given his final word. The morning of the signing is at hand and it is scheduled to be the pinnacle event at the opening of the General Assembly opening ceremonies. This event is so big that it has totally eclipsed the Palestinian annual demand for statehood, even the nuclear deal has its bonuses, and the Presidents and Prime Minister from all six nations which made up the P5+1 negotiations. This includes Prime Minister of Britain David Cameron, Premier of China Li Keqiang, President of France François Hollande, President of Russia Vladimir Putin, Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel, President of the United States Barack Obama, President of Iran Hassan Rouhani are all gathered for the events in New York City at the United Nations building at Turtle Bay and it is just minutes away from the final signing of the deal. The speeches have been given and the leaders all are ready to sign the official treaty. One by one they sign the document each attempting to look and appear regal while signing the treaty placed approximately at hip level while standing before the wide podium holding the treaty. Only two signatures remain, President Barack Obama’s and President Hassan Rouhani’s. President Obama steps up and signs the treaty then makes his way to the speaker’s podium and gives a brief few words about the momentous occasion and the promising future this document promises, unusual for the President, and finishes his speech signaling to his Iranian counterpart and states, ‘With the signature of this treaty Iran will reenter the community of nations with the promise of cooperation, moderation and an outlook which will fill the world with hope, President Rouhani.’

 

President Obama entices the Iranian leader to approach and sign the treaty with a grand sweeping motion extending his arm with an open hand. Iranian President Rouhani steps up next to the President who steps back one step allowing the Iranian leader the microphone. President Rouhani’s speech is even more to the point and brief, ‘I am here today representing the people of Iran and the determined desires of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,’ President Rouhani then steps two steps to his left and deliberately bends and snatches the parchment from the signing podium and tears it in halves, then halves again and again and one last time in halves throwing the sixteen squared tears out onto the floor before a room filled with horrified leaders all at a loss for what just occurred. The tension is felt throughout the room, the fears felt around the world as they watch live on televisions and jaws drop as the Iranian President stalks from the room leaving a silence so deafening it would swallow any sound made anyway. Slowly the room of world leaders, diplomats and select media gather their wits. Cameramen turn their lenses to the anchor reporter assigned to cover this historic event and the anchors are still gathering their wits. Only Jon Stewart reacts spontaneously and immediately covering the event for the Comedy Channel who immediately blurts out, ‘Well, there goes Obama’s legacy, imagine that, his entire legacy lying on the floor in sixteen torn shreds of parchment that he fought Congress over as if it would matter, never mind!’

 

The reality is this is this situation is quite likely if one feels the pulse coming from Iran. There are demonstrations against the deal and many in the Parliament and other positions which merit coverage claiming that the deal is insulting and damages the Iranian image and that going through with the deal will simply humiliate Iran, something almost every Iranian would agree is not something at all desirable, though there might be as many reasons that could be seen as bad as there exist political outlooks, still all want their country seen as strong and reliable. The troubling signs in Iran is the higher one looks for clues across the numerous power structures. The vision as one climbs higher gets increasingly negative towards the Nuclear deal. Many in Iran view any limitations on their nuclear program as an insult and the demands for snap, invasive and unannounced inspections as mistrust and equates their leaders as being untrustworthy and calling everybody in Iran to be deceivers. There exists rejection for the nuclear deal in Iran coming largely from the most hardline politically and many of the university students who are of similar political ire being the leaders in the drive to reject the nuclear treaty. These divisions in Iranian society and the fact that the hardline politician and the most radicalized students are the ones being permitted to give voice to their feelings should be found to be quite revealing and perhaps as a portend of coming events.

 

There is another signal that all may not be going well with the political environment in Iran. Leading in these suspicions that we have been feeling here, goes beyond the rising angst as one climbs the power structures in Iran, is the recent announcement that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is claiming he will run again for the Presidency of Iran, or we wish we could call his political career, Achmed the Dead Terrorist for President. Simply make the required thought changes to the video below replacing Achmed or Achmed the Dead Terrorist with Ahmadinejad or Ahmadinejad for President, you get the idea. Perhaps Ahmadinejad could use some variant of Achmed the Dead Terrorist in a televised campaign ad, but then he might run afoul of the strictness police who would object to such humor.

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, news reports are all focused like a laser on Washington D.C. and the debate as to whether the House or Representatives, a given by all accounts, and the Senate will pass a piece of legislation in an attempt to void the Iran Nuclear Agreement. Many are curious why this ‘agreement’ requires legislation to kill it and not a supermajority support in only the Senate to ratify it as the treaty it actually represents. Apparently the Constitution has been tossed aside for the remainder of President Obama’s time in office and may have been considered void by the Administration for some time now. Nobody is focused much on Iran despite the fact that they too are in the middle of an affirmation which actually depends on a single person and his general health both physical and mental on the morning set for the signing, which we have predicted for the opening ceremonies for the General Assembly and its 70th session which starts on Tuesday, September 15, 2015 and lasts until closing on Tuesday, October 6 2015. Since the United States Senate has until September 17, 2015 to decide on the legislation, assuming they pass the legislation negating the agreement, as expected, and the President in turn vetoes and sends it back, then we can bet that the United States very well may not have ended the discussions and votes before the signing ceremony, thus making two nations unannounced about their signing the Nuclear Agreement. Never mind what the United States Congress decides, President Obama will claim he is simply signing the agreement passed by the United Nations Security Council, which is the exact same agreement, and will be seen to be signing for the United States quite possibly despite the subsequent override of his veto if for no other reason than his presumptuous signing despite Congress still having to vote on their override. Such disrespect by the White House might be exactly what the opposition to the Iran Deal might need to use such insult and disregard to garner the likely five votes they will be short of override when passing the legislation in the Senate. It appears to be assumed that the House of Representatives will have sufficient votes to override any veto leaving only the Senate in question.

 

What will the United States Senate and the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei both do, approve or veto the Iran Nuclear Weapons Agreement? This may be all the proof that President Obama might need to equate those Senators and Representatives who vote to override his veto with the most hardline individual in Iran, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as both decided to reject the treaty for polar opposite reasons, but why would common sense and the motivation get in the way of a good lynching of President Obama’s opponents in the leftist and mainstream, but I repeat myself, media. One would have to wonder at this point, does the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei actually agree with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on the agreement being a poor deal or is it possible for polar opposites to both refuse the same offering but for grandly different reasons?

 

 

Netanyahu and Khamenei face off while both mat end up being the two who opposed the Iran Nuclear Deal so precious and treasured by United States President Obama whose legacy depends on the success. What will follow should Iran refuse to ratify the deal and just walk away and likely soon thereafter quit the NPT, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty?

 

 

What will follow should Iran refuse to ratify the deal and just walk away and likely soon thereafter quit the NPT, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty? Who could have ever believed that the two standout opponents of the Iran deal could be the two men pictured above? The world keeps getting curiouser and curiouser.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Why Obama Will Continue to Ignore Alarms by Netanyahu

There are a number of reasons working together, any one of which is sufficient to turn President Obama’s hearing off when Netanyahu gives any warnings about the Middle East or even the greater world. The major impetus behind the wall President Obama has placed to block Netanyahu out derives from the belief in President Obama’s mind that he knows more about what is happening in the Middle East and who can be trusted and which leaders he needs to woo and that his being raised in Indonesia gives him experiences and an innate knowledge which he believes will prove him correct in the end. Part of this insider knowledge that President Obama relies on is his familiarity with Islamic beliefs and society of Indonesia of his youth. No matter how many experts make claims that the form of Islam practiced in Indonesia at the time that President Obama resided there was completely different than the forms of Islam being practiced today in the Middle East and North Africa as well as the Islamist Madrassas around the Western World, President Obama is determined to prove that he knows best. President Obama’s pridefulness and inability to admit to his own mistakes, especially in matters concerning the Middle East and the Islamic World make for a combination where changing his perceptions on such subjects is simply impossible. The best examples of the President’s inability to adapt or incorporate new information if it does not fit his carefully crafted view of how he believes things to be can be found in Egypt and Turkey as well as the obvious, Israel.

 

In Egypt President Obama still holds to the policy which dictates that the Muslim Brotherhood is, as then Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said at a House Intelligence Committee hearing, “The Muslim Brotherhood is a very heterogeneous group, largely secular.” Group that “has eschewed violence and has decried Al Qaeda as a perversion of Islam” and “have pursued social ends, a betterment of the political order in Egypt.” He added that the Muslim Brotherhood, which has branches in many Muslim countries, has “no overarching agenda, particularly in pursuit of violence, at least internationally.” President Obama also believes that the Freedom and Justice Party’s President Morsi won the first elections after the removal of former strong man and American longtime ally President Mubarak in a totally free election in which there were no improprieties despite evidence to the contrary and that the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood was the most organized and the only group in a position to organize and conduct a coherent campaign and thus guaranteed to win the election. President Obama has also chosen to ignore the fact that Egyptian people in the tens of millions protested, signed petitions and carried out the most massive popular revolution calling for the removal of President Morsi. The protests to remove President Morsi were actually larger and more invigorated than those a little over a year earlier which dethroned Mubarak. President Obama prefers to believe and act as if the Egyptian Military acted solely on their own without any mandate from the people and has even gone so far as to blame all of the violence on the Egyptian Military totally absolving the Muslim Brotherhood of any guilt. Any casual observer of the violence being perpetrated against the Egyptian people, especially the Coptic Christians and any non-Sunni Muslims would easily see the evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda are behind much of the violence evidenced by the black flag and the Muslim Brotherhood banner being carried by the gangs violently attacking the people and intentionally attempting to destroy Egypt if they are not returned to power.

 

Then there is Turkey and President Obama’s declared bestest friend in the Middle East, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As we noted close to a decade ago and has been commented upon by numerous Middle Eastern experts, Prime Minister Erdogan has been slowly but surely moving the Turkish governance from a secular governance into a Sharia governance. Prime Minister Erdogan had warned Egyptian President Morsi very early in his time in office that he should emulate the example that Prime Minister Erdogan had used in Turkey of small increments and taking one’s time and not rushing or pushing the people too quickly so that they did not revolt to the sudden changes and the potentially unpopular proponents of Sharia. Morsi did not listen and if the violent protests which have gripped Turkey of late are any evidence, even taking the slow but steady change from secular to Sharia did not prove successful either. Add to this that the reaction from the Turkish government was just announced by the Justice and Interior ministries that people can now be jailed if they think about protesting against the government. Meanwhile, as the Egyptian Military is backing the temporary government by destroying the majority of smuggling tunnels from the Sinai into the Hamas stronghold of Gaza in order to prevent Hamas, an arm of the Muslim Brotherhood formed to attack Israel, from smuggling terrorists back into the Sinai to attack Egyptian villages and military outposts, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has invited and met for the third time this past year Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal. Of course this does not appear to cause President Obama any concern as he just announced a $200 million program under which Turkey and Qatar will develop materials aimed at promoting the Muslim Brotherhood’s Islamist agenda while cutting off military aid to Egypt until they reinstate Muslim Brotherhood representative Morsi to the Presidency. Also, do not expect any apology any time in the foreseeable future to come from President Obama to Prime Minister Netanyahu for forcing him to apologize to Prime Minister Erdogan over the actions on the blockade runner Mavi Marmara where nine terrorists died after they posed a fatal threat as they attacked Israeli Special Forces who boarded the ship to enforce the blockade with paintball guns loaded with pepper-balls and were attacked with knives, steel rods, and other small arms. The closest that Turkey has come to making any return gesture to Israel has been complete and rudely given refusals to accept the apology and the obvious warming gestures with Hamas which may soon result with Hamas moving their headquarters from Qatar to Turkey.

 

Further proof of President Obama’s affections for the Muslim Brotherhood has been obvious in Syria where the only thing preventing full United States support of the Rebel forces has been the warnings and threats from Russia and China. The only times that President Obama has taken steps which may have proven advantageous for Syrian dictator President Bashir al-Assad has been the leaking of information proving the suspicions that Israel had been behind attacks that prevented the transfer of chemical weapons, advanced anti-air and anti-ship missiles presumably supplied by Russia, and other advanced weapons systems or game changing weapons that provided significant upgrades to Hezballah’s abilities. The sole threat of American intervention came in a threat to Syrian President al-Assad primarily when President Obama said, “We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized. That would change my calculus. That would change my equation.” This brought about the now infamous backpedaling and stalling until Russian President Putin supplied President Obama a get untangled from your tongue alternative which he, of course, took immediately. Of course, many have pointed out that Syria is a no win proposition and what would probably serve the future best would be a prolonged conflict where the civilians who remain were permitted to leave or be provided safe-zones and eventually have, strangely enough, President al-Assad remain in power even if he ruled a small area while the rest of Syria was divided between the Kurds and the other forces. The one result we would like to have from all the turmoil and violence, especially in Syria and Iraq, would be a Kurdish state combining the Kurdish controlled areas in northern Iraq and north-east Syria, but that may simply be a dream as the Kurds have historically been treated poorly and denied their promised homeland simply because J. P. Getty wanted the central Iraqi oil fields which was within the areas promised the Kurds after World War I, and one thing anybody familiar with the broken promises to the Jews after World War I knows is just how unfairly the British were with the Kurds.

 

The final country which President Obama has taken as far back a seat as possible allowing even the Europeans to show definitively more leadership than he, is Iran. Yes, after years of wrestling with the Europeans President Obama has been dragged to a point where the sanctions on Iran are having their intended effect. The Iranians, masters in chess and the art of deception, have played their hand masterly with their choice of Hasan Rouhani as their new President and face before the world. He contrasts with former President Ahmadinejad nearly perfectly and has been hailed by an overanxious West as the revelation of a new and open Iran. He has been hailed as approachable and having shown an honest intention to make changes and reveal the entirety of the Iranian nuclear program with an honesty that will be unquestionable. This is all well and good except that it is a complete and total fabrication. President Hasan Rouhani was formerly the lead negotiator for the Iranians in their nuclear talks and as such he glad-handed and smiled his way adroitly avoiding revealing anything about the Iranian nuclear program as he also oversaw the installation of thousands of centrifuges. He was proven to be a masterful deceiver who was well spoken and had a full understanding of the West and the weaknesses of each person with whom he would need to deal. Adding to this is the fact that absolutely nothing has changed in the actual power structure in Iran. They have the same Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who is the real power and very likely the person most responsible for Hasan Rouhani’s election. The twelve on the Council of Guardians, six of whom are appointed by the Supreme Leader, have not changed and were responsible for choosing who would be permitted on the ballot in the elections. Since virtually all of the real power rests with the Council of Guardians and the Supreme Leader, nothing in Iran has changed except they have a new puppet to place on the world stage and apparently that is sufficient for a Western World who wish to find any reason to avoid having to face the facts that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons and is very likely to either use them or threaten their use in order to have a nuclear umbrella that guards their terrorist attacks across the globe. President Obama sees in Iran his chance to receive another Nobel Peace Prize and honestly believes his oratory abilities will sway the Iranians from their pursuit of nuclear weapons. The only times that President Obama might decide to take any real actions against Iran would be in order to force concessions from Prime Minister Netanyahu to the Palestinian. Even then his promise will more likely be broken and in the end if the negotiations do not produce the result he envisions as equitable and fair final peace treaty, which is the complete capitulation by Israel of all lands and every one of the Palestinian demands even including some form of Right of Return for millions of Palestinian refugees, President Obama is considering forcing a peace of his liking on the Israelis even if it requires a Chapter VII Security Council Resolution granting the Palestinians the entire enchilada with the threat of military enforcement by the nations willing to enforce the United Nation edict. President Obama is going to be the first man in history to win the Nobel Peace Prize before he did anything to earn it and then his efforts to prove he deserved it resulting in starting World War III. What a legacy.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Iranian Master Ventriloquist Changes Dummies

A Master Ventriloquist has a particular set of skills among which are they are amusing, able to throw their voice, assume different personalities to match each Dummy, keep straight which voice to use both between dummies and when changing in conversation from his own voice and the dummy’s voice, engage the audience, and memorize the routine. These skills and others which any particular ventriloquist has mastered do not change or alter when they change from one of their dummies despite the fact that the act is altered as one of the participants, namely the dummy, has been changed out. The ventriloquist does not change when the dummy is changed. He retains his same voice, same ability to thrill and amuse the audience, and still works the various features of the dummy whether it is an expressive puppet professionally built with various facial and other features which can be controlled by the ventriloquist or it is a simple sock puppet which is taking the most simple of puppets used as the ventriloquist prop. When one is watching a ventriloquist perform his routines one does not expect for the ventriloquist changes his puppet that the ventriloquist will necessarily assume an entirely different persona himself despite the fact that the Dummy will have a different sounding voice, movements and other particulars which establish its personality and interaction with the ventriloquist. Despite the changes committed to make the new dummy a separate personality, nobody in the audience is expecting the act to suddenly transform miraculously.

 

What we just witnessed in Iran was the changing of the mouthpiece who serves as the voice of the Supreme leader and the ruling Ayatollahs of Iran. Ahmadinejad was swapped out for a new President, Hassan Rouhani. Of course the Ayatollahs will want to use their exchanging mouthpieces to alter and profit their position in the world and use it to reset as much of the Iranian situation as they are able. President Hassan Rouhani will be set out with a script which will be designed to make it appear that a new, softer, more pliable, more accessible Iran now exists that seeks peaceful, friendly relations and offers a new openness with the world on their nuclear programs. This was evidenced as President Rouhani’s first interaction with the press after being sworn in where he indicated he would pursue a less confrontational approach to nuclear talks with the six world powers than had his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. President Rouhani further claimed that Iran’s nuclear activities are “within the framework of law,” and that international sanctions are “baseless” and yet he insisted Iran would not be halting their uranium enrichment activities. President Rouhani sounded similar to the positions he had held while he represented Iran in their nuclear talks a decade ago. During his time as Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Mr. Rouhani often used obstructions and misleading statements to deceive and confuse the world as to Iranian intents and aims as well as how advanced and accomplished was their nuclear programs. The instillation of a new President in Iran is simply further proof that the more things change, the more they remain the same.

                                  

Despite evidence to the contrary from President Rouhani’s past performances and his initial statements and responses during interactions with the press and the Iranian people since his assuming the Presidency, the mainstream media and the political elites are all touting Mr. Rouhani as the coming of the great new moderate who will change and reset all settings and position within the government of Iran and bring a new approach which will align Iran with the desires of the international community. The leadership of the world is determined to use the inauguration of the new Iranian President to restart the negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program and pretend that the negotiations have suddenly taken a complete change of direction deserving of renewed hopes even if doing such requires completely ignoring every single iota of evidence to the contrary. The real change is that the new Iranian President is a far more accomplished and smoother politician who is well practiced in the concepts and techniques of deception and misdirection capable of using all the tricks of the trade. Unlike his predecessor, President Rouhani does not take a confrontational position nor does he use brute force and direct defiance and opposition seeming to be immovable and resolute to withstand all assaults on his position as did former President Ahmadinejad. Instead, President Rouhani speaks in reasoned words using pleasing tones in order to passively resist thrusts while softly guiding them aside marshaling them into fruitless dead ends in order to maintain a soft resolve allowing for the continuation at speed of the nuclear program while beguiling his adversaries with sweet songs of agreement while refusing all agreements. President Rouhani is well practiced in all of the political arts using guile, concealment, double-entendres, and all forms of deceitfulness all without ever causing insult or injury yet also managing to put his adversaries at ease leaving them pleased with a false feeling of accomplishment. The leaders of the West and the mainstream media have all willingly been duped into believing their own propaganda and wishful dreaming as they are all in the mode of avoidance of conflict no matter the cost and are willing to do whatever it takes in order to be rewarded with a piece of paper filled with empty promises and meaningless words of agreement all expressing the accomplishment of the ultimate dream, peace in our time. Does nobody remember the everlasting shame of previous fools dancing to the pied pipers of those who would enjoin conquest through clever deceits and tunes of such sweet enticements which gathered the signatures of the blinded ones, Édouard Daladier and Neville Chamberlain?

 

Beyond the Cusp