Beyond the Cusp

June 5, 2016

Final Weeds in the MENA Garden, Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Iran

 

In a nutshell Syria has a fair measure of the powers in play in the Middle East and into North Africa. In addition we will also need to mention areas centered on Nigeria where Boko Haram is centrally located making war on Nigeria and all her neighboring states. Then there is Yemen and two straits, Bab el-Mandeb and finally the Strait of Hormuz which are all parts of the Iranian designs which start with the Shiite Crescent from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea and control of the two most important waterway choke points in the Middle East affecting everything from the eastern tip of Asia to the Western tip of Europe including the British Isles. But it all starts with Syria and the last block to the Shiite Crescent.

 

Iran sits conveniently at the eastern edge just beyond the Arab Muslim Empire and as such is mostly a different peoples east of the Zagros Mountains which have served as a defensive barrier thousands of years. This was the secret of the Persians and why despite falling to Islam they remained separate and distinct. Still, if Iran was ever to claim the right as the head of a Caliphate they were going to need to establish two things, a connection unobstructed to the Mediterranean Sea and thus full access to North Africa and South Europe and a mass alteration of Islam making Shia Islam dominant over Sunni Islam. The first is a major step towards the second. The hope was once Iran had access to the Mediterranean cutting across the Middle East gaining direct or implied control over much of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon they would appear, as Islam claims to be the superior, the strong horse and thus could influence many that Sunni Islam was weak and Shia Islam was dominant and thus start the conversion of Sunni Muslims to Shia Islam and thus become the dominant force reestablishing both the historic Persian Empire and taking over the new Caliphate and the lead position over nearly two-billion Muslims.

 

Iran had taken control of Lebanon when they took sponsorship of Hezballah which initially was a universally recognized terror group which was fighting the Christian militias and had also fought against the IDF using terrorist strikes in an attempt to wear Israel down and force their capitulation and return to south of the recognized international border known as the Blue Line. Eventually a left leaning government bent to the protests and declared an end to what they called a tragic period in Israeli history completely forgetting the reasons, the valid reason that brought Israel into southern Lebanon. Israel replied to the hue and cry of the Christians of southern Lebanon as Syrian troops invaded Lebanon aiding Hezballah who were facing being slaughtered and Israel responded to an intense threat of a human disaster in the making as had already been committed to the initial Christian communities near the Syrian border. Israel, Ariel Sharon in particular, was blamed for a revenge strike on Sabra and Shatila massacring the Muslims which were carried out by the Christian militias and not the IDF. Still the world could not blame the Christian militias as they were irregular fighters and as such were not sufficiently organized with a command structure and as such their silence made finding those responsible became impossible so the work picked the next best thing, Israel. Europe had what seems like a default setting that if it happens in the Middle East, then when in doubt, blame Israel.

 

Once Israel retreated from southern Lebanon the Lebanese military was supposed to move in with United Nations oversight. Neither occurred and in many instances the United Nations aided Hezballah in their efforts to set up a series of tunnels as well as arms caches and command and control bunkers. This eventually led to another Israeli incursion into Lebanon after Hezballah kidnapped, and subsequently murdered three Israeli soldiers and killed five other soldiers at the point of the ambush inside Israel when they caught a patrol vehicle off guard and unsuspecting any incursion across the border from Lebanon. Iran uses Hezballah as their threat against Israel and has armed them to a point which is truly frightening as Iran has stocked Hezballah with at least one-hundred plus long range missiles and uncountable limited range rockets which have as much as a fifty kilometer range. Amongst the longer range missiles are stores of Zilzal-2 and Fateh-110 provided by Iran bringing them into Damascus and shipping them over land often on their own mobile vehicles. This is the threat Iran would threaten to unleash on Israel had Israel actually struck at Iranian nuclear sites and likely will be the first strike against Israel whenever Iran decides that they will attack the Jewish homeland. The total is well over two-hundred-thousand rockets and missiles from ten to twenty kilometer Grads, Fajr series, Shahab series and Ghadr missiles. Then there are the mid-range Scud series of ballistic rockets and then the more advanced guided missiles which the most advanced has two stages and Iran can strike Israel from Iran with these longer range Missiles so Lebanon can not only strike Israel but also northern Saudi Arabia and Egypt as well as all of Turkey and anywhere within Syria or Jordan and much of Iraq. With these longest range missiles stationed in Iran and Lebanon the range brings them to command coverage over the entire Middle East and beyond, a definite threat to the heart of Sunni Islam, exactly what Iran envisioned as their way to claim command over all of Israel. Their problem, Syria collapsed and nobody can claim complete control over Syria as well as over Iraq, the two breaking Iran’s Shiite Crescent in two.

 

Iran is not the only outside power with an interest in Syria. The most straight forward national interest belongs to the Russians who have one main port at Latakia and potential other locations along the Mediterranean shoreline which provides them a warm water port with easy access to the Atlantic Ocean. The Russian plan is likely to reposition a fair share of their Black Sea naval forces to the Syrian ports thus placing them beyond the Bosphorus which could easily be closed any time that Turkey might decide they are upset with the Russians. The teetering of the relationship between Turkey and Russia became very evident a few months ago when Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet claiming it had flown into Turkish air space, something very likely as Russia has been bombing locations in support of Bashir al-Assad who has lost control over much of the nation he once ruled unchallenged. Now there are a number of militias and terror groups each commanding their own parts with Assad, the Kurds and Islamic State have the largest locations under their control. Other areas are controlled by the al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda offshoot, Free Syrian Army, Jaish al-Izzah, Levant Front, Alotfecat Brigades, and offshoots divided into Syrian Opposition-al-Qaeda network, Federation of Northern Syria, Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant or Islamic State. Each of these groups have so many offshoots that it becomes cumbersome to even begin to list them but for those who desire a detailed list one can be found here With al-Assad opposing these groups are the remains of the Syrian Army, Russian Naval and air support, Hezballah and some Druze militias are fighting in support of Bashir al-Assad whose control is limited to the westernmost areas of Syria including Damascus and the port cities which the Russians are defending with occasional air attacks flown against the terror forces but usually avoiding the Kurds and Islamic State and striking the weaker forces which al-Assad might be better poised to defeat.

 

Military Situation in the Syrian Civil War Areas of Control  by Major Force Divisions as of June 3, 2016.

Military Situation in the Syrian Civil War Areas of Control
by Major Force Divisions as of June 3, 2016.

 

The Kurdish Militias are holding the northernmost areas largely against the Islamic State. Turkey has provided bombing targets used for the United States air strikes as President Obama micromanaging their actions by putting their orders for strikes to Turkish intelligence. This has resulted in many of these strikes instead of targeting the Islamic State side of the conflict line are instead striking the Kurdish side making the situation more favorable for the Islamic State. The saving grace was that the Russians protested the NATO air strikes as interfering with Russian air strikes and set where the United States and Turkish fighter jets are restricted to a corridor which has actually favored the Kurdish forces. This became serious after Turkey shot down the Russian Fighter Jet. What is not discussed publically is the agreement between Russia and another air force in the area allowing for Israel to conduct tactical strikes in response to any attacks against Israeli forces on the Golan Heights. This was negotiated between President Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu in Moscow early in the Russian intervention. This has proven necessary a number of times as the different forces have intentionally fired on IDF troops damaging vehicles and causing some injuries which required at times a more serious response than a couple of artillery or tank shells as a position required removal. These strikes barely make comment even within Israel but there have been some reports in a few of the smaller nationalist and Zionist sources online and in print.

 

Likely the most notable forces have been those of the Islamic State due to their early success largely in Iraq. They took control of the Sunni northern and central areas bordering southern Syria as the mostly Shiite Iraqi army forces simply fled or attempted to melt into the public. Their difficulty was that many of the Sunni civilians who these troops had tormented got their revenge turning over those Shiite soldiers who were guilty of such inter faction fighting. The Islamic State after their fast conquest of largely open areas and a few key cities in Iraq have now settled into defensive posture as they were close to overextension which had allowed for some key cities and towns being reclaimed. The Islamic State holds large open areas in Syria which are mostly desert and open scrublands which were sparsely populated. Their supposed massive victories were somewhat overblown in the hyperventilating Western media as they were hungry for a big story so every gain of the Islamic State, even those which were made in areas where they were unopposed were claimed to be grand expansion of their military control. The main story they should have never strayed from was the Islamic State’s brutality. This alone is the reason that the Islamic State deserves being liquidated by whatever means are necessary and this fight should be carried out largely by indigenous troops. Any support by Western forces should be limited to providing air support and precision strikes on such targets as command and control facilities and fixed positions as well as taking out the Western armor and other Western equipment. Other than such air support and potential cruise missile or drone strikes the Western ground forces should not be placed in harm’s way as such assistance is more often not appreciated and often used as reasons for protests and resentment. They should not risk being dragged into what may prove to be a prolonged number of operations in order to clear out pockets of resistance. As far as Syria, that too should not require any Western ground forces and be left to indigenous forces with support from Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Iran and potential financing from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.

 

Yemen Battle Map

Yemen Battle Map

 

The other front that needs addressing also has an Iranian contingent in Yemen. Iran is also attempting to gain the ability to completely disrupt all maritime trade by holding military threat over two of the most sensitive straights in all of the Middle East, Bab el-Mandeb and finally the Strait of Hormuz. The Bab el-Mandeb cuts off Israeli maritime access from the Red Sea on the way to the Indian Ocean and on to the rest of Asia and the Pacific as well as blocking any use of the Suez Canal by cutting off its southern access. The Strait of Hormuz has a large portion of the world’s crude oil shipping. Iran already holds threat over the Strait of Hormuz as one side of the entire Persian Gulf borders Iran (a huge ‘no duh’). This threat Iran has had and used since the Islamic takeover in 1979 requiring the United States to intervene as well as to bring in minesweepers to clear mines which Iran had strewn as part of their cutting off of the Strait of Hormuz. The Bab el-Mandeb sits off the southwestern most border of Yemen which borders the southernmost Red Sea. This is the other choke point other than the Suez Canal itself. The Suez Canal is safely within the borders of Egypt between the Sinai Peninsula and main body of Egypt which has only faced a force other than Egyptian when Israel held the Sinai briefly in 1956 and for a number of years after the Six Day War in 1967 until Egypt and Israel made peace in 1979. Israel never threatened to close the Suez Canal though it may have been risky using the Suez Canal during the 1973 Yom Kippur War as initially Egyptian troops were pouring across into the Sinai and within a few days after Israel mobilized and struck back were crossing the Suez Canal and for a while held both shores but withdrew back across the Canal into the Sinai after the world demanded Israel cease winning the war and immediately stop advancing on Alexandria and Cairo. Funny, there was no call for Egypt to stop their advance across the Sinai intending to strike into Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. I guess Egypt advancing and defeating Israeli defenders is completely different than Israel advancing and defeating Egyptian forces. Should Iranian Houthi rebels take control over sufficient areas of Yemen and a peace leave the areas in the southeastern end of Yemen then Iran would have access to blocking the Bab el-Mandeb and blocking the Suez Canal which would end all oil and maritime trade with Europe forcing those hardy enough to try having to circle the south end of the African Continent. That used to be a difficult and dangerous route before the canal and the main reason the Suez Canal was built. Iran desires to hold a stranglehold over maritime trade and oil trade thus being able to threaten the world and especially threaten Europe. That is why Egypt is assisting in Yemen and the West had best have an interest in what happens in Yemen, even if not as much in Syria.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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September 8, 2014

Palestinians Prove Statehood Not the Target, Israel Is!

The mantra from much of the world and most emphatically from the Western, Muslim and Arab worlds is that whatever offer Israel presents to the Palestinians, it is insufficient and thus must be rejected. Part of the Palestinian demands is for the right of return for the refugees which are still unsettled from the war lost by the Arab forces from more than six nations in an attempt to wipe Israel from existence immediately after her founding. Resulting from this war and the ensuing decade of sporadic violence against the Jewish populations across the Arab world forced almost two million total refugees from their homes, businesses, lives and history resulting in their influx to Israel. These refugees were of comparable numbers with approximately seven-hundred-thousand Arab Palestinian refugees and eight-hundred-fifty-thousand Jewish refugees from across the Arab world who were forced from their homes and dispossessed of their wealth and properties as well as the hundreds of thousands of European Jewish refugees who were survivors of World War II and all of its persecutions as well as many Jews who were rejected from their homes in a number of places throughout Europe. The basic truth is that a comparable number of Jews were forced into exile as Arabs fled or were dispossessed during the war against the founding of Israel which spanned 1948 and 1949 before a ceasefire was reached and an Armistice Line produced which has since been known as the Green Line. The difference is that the Arab refugees were forced into camps and prohibited from citizenship, right to own property, right to work in all but the most menial of professions and basically shunned socially and politically by their Arab brethren while the entirety of the Jewish refugees were accepted into Israeli society and their children and their children’s children makeup about half of the Israeli population. It also bears noting that the Arabs who chose to remain in Israel are today citizens of Israel with full rights to vote, hold office, serve as judges, physicians, lawyers, or any profession of their choice and may reside and own property same as any Israeli Jew, their lives are legally as equals.

Egyptian president General Abdel Fatah al-Sisi has this past week offered Palestinian Authority chief Mahmoud Abbas to cede 160 square kilometers of land in the Sinai Peninsula bordering Gaza at the Rafah junction, which is equal to five times the size of Gaza, to place the refugees and relent on the demands for right of return thus making the return to the Green Line as demarking the border with Israel acceptable. This land offered by President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi would be in addition to the lands of Gaza and Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and to be used solely for the resettlement of the refugees permitting them to begin a normal form of life. It was reported that Mahmoud Abbas refused the offer without stopping to blink his eyes. Immediately and completely out of hand Abbas refused to consider, debate or even offer some counter-proposal to President al-Sisi’s generous offer and providing a viable end to the otherwise inexorable standoff between the Palestinians and Israel. This offer had the approval and acceptance by Israel, the United States and one may assume the European Union as well if approached would have also approved. Abbas simply refused without even the hint of an explanation. So, what ever could be the reasoning which forced Abbas to once again discard and reject a generous offer which would have given the Palestinians lands almost twice that of even the most generous offer Israel could ever grant, that being a complete withdrawal to the Green Line and dividing Jerusalem.

The reason has been understood and has been stated regularly in Arabic by Abbas as well as his predecessor, Yasser Arafat. The reason was the sole and announced reason that the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was founded upon in 1964, a full three years before the Six Day War in June of 1967 and thus before Israel controlled any lands beyond the Green Line or her borders with Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt. The PLO Charter called for the liberation of all of Palestine from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea also calling for the destruction of Israel. The Palestinian Arab refugees have been kept in refugee camps and under refugee status with their own United Nations organization, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), taking responsibility for their care and setting the rules by which somebody is to be considered a Palestinian refugee with rights to return to their homes in Israel. This places the Palestinian Arab refugees as a separate entity to the whole of humanity’s refugees who are adjudicated and cared for by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) whose mission statement demands that this agency take all measures necessary to incorporate the refugees under their care into the national population within which they are located. The UNHRC recognized only those who were displaced and realized refugee status at the time of inception and cannot be transferred to their children or their children’s children or any other relative, thus any refugee group which comes under the normal care of the United Nations can last no longer than a single generation. UNRWA has a completely different set of rules and objectives. UNRWA not only permits the passing of refugee status from one generation to the next but also includes and others who may become a member of the household such as a spouse upon marriage. When a Palestinian refugee marries, even if they wed somebody who is not only not a Palestinian refugee, and not even a Palestinian, and not even Arab but, for example, they marry a French Canadian, then that French Canadian and their immediate family are now admissible as Palestinian refugees. Between this and simple reproduction the original Palestinian Refugees now number over five-million. And even if a Palestinian Refugee or their prodigy were to leave the refugee camps and take up residence with citizenship in another country, say San Diego, California in the United States, they retain their refugee status under UNRWA as well their children and their children’s children into perpetuity. Another remarkable trait of these Palestinian refugees is that every last single one of the families left their homes which were within Israeli Green Line and none fled from Judea, Samaria or Gaza. These refugees cannot be permitted to be normalized and relieved of their refugee status in any manner except by being accepted as Israeli citizens as a part of any agreement Abbas might consider, an effect which would alter Israel into simply another Palestinian Arab state and the Jewish People would no longer have their homelands. That is the reason behind the refusal of al-Sisi’s generous and logical offer for a solution to the refugee situation. Since his offer did not include the destruction of Israel as the Jewish homelands, it was completely unacceptable as the end result of the formation of the PLO instituted in order to bring about the end of Israel and her Jews throughout its metamorphosis to Fatah, the Palestinian Authority, and now, according to Abbas, the State of Palestine. Very simple, any solution that would be acceptable to Abbas and the Palestinian leadership can be summed up as follows; To Know Israel leads to No Peace but to Know Peace only if it Produces No Israel.

The aims have not altered one iota from 1964 when the PLO first demanded the purging and purification of all of Palestine from its Jewish presence. There is no difference in the view of reaching a peace with Israel between the PLO, Fatah, Palestinian Authority, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, ISIS, IRAN, Hezballah and still much of the so-called Arab Street. And furthermore, they mostly agree with Hamas in the call for the eradication of the Jewish People wherever they may reside on the entirety of planet Earth. Where Abbas and Fatah, the PLO and, for as long as Abbas can avoid elections, the Palestinian Authority desire an Arab State in place of Israel and spanning from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea with an elected governance and a secular governance, Hamas desires the same state for the Palestinian Arab also called Palestine but under Sharia exactly the same as ISIS (now referring to themselves as IS though their claim to Caliphate is weak and debatable) and as ISIS desires spreading Sharia across the globe, so does Hamas and their ally Islamic Jihad and their parent organization, the Muslim Brotherhood. It may start with Israel and the Jews, but it will not end there and eventually Hamas, ISIS, Fatah, Boko Haram, Islamic Jihad, Hezballah, al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda, Wahhabis, Iran, Turkey, Qatar, and numerous other terrorist entities and Arab and Muslim nations will, after eradicating the Jews of Israel, spread their hatred and Sharia into Africa, across Europe, sweeping through Southeast Asia, spreading over South America and eventually, if not sooner, into the United States and Canada. Their desire and aim is no different than any of the other forces which made their vain attempts to conquer the known world and must be prevented from attaining their goal the exact same way. The one truth that must be stressed in the hopes that it is not realized in its potentially worst case scenario, they must be met with greater strength of arms and dedicated warfare to annihilate their chance to achieve even a limited form of their goals just as every other tyrant with delusions of world conquest before them. The longer this battle is postponed, the more costly in blood and treasure the conflict demand be borne. That has been true every time in the past and will prove just as valid in the twenty-first century.

Beyond the Cusp

July 27, 2014

The Ominous Clouds on the Israeli Horizon

The world is once again being sold the big lie that the Israelis are not suffering any stressing anxieties or worrying doubts as the Iron Dome has mostly intercepted the rockets which were most likely to strike populated areas and ignored those which were heading to fall harmlessly, or at least as harmlessly as any large explosive device can strike within earshot of where one is standing. The reality is over eighty percent of Israelis are currently living in the areas where every explosion, be it a rocket striking the middle of a field or the Iron Dome anti-missile missile striking its intercept target overhead, is a nerve wracking jolt reminding them that the next one might be headed for their home, office, child’s school or the very same target of a relative or friend and if it is that one the Iron Dome computers compute errantly is headed harmlessly and therefore no intercept is launched or the intercept misses its mark, and then something unthinkably horrid can potentially happen. Yesterday the article was an attempt to paint a picture of what Israelis are experiencing even doing something as mundane as listening to news and talk radio or your favorite music station and having the Code Red warnings superimposed over the music, conversation or news broadcast repeatedly seemingly every ten to twenty minutes. Most of the time the places listed are not where you currently are listening and other times you immediately drop whatever you are doing and the only thought as you run as best you are able is, did I get the full number of seconds to reach the shelter or was this one of the late detections and I have half as much time. Oh G0d I hope I can run fast enough, praying possibly faster than I ever have before.

Even when the place facing the threat is not your location, as is the case for many Israelis, you have a mental list you check off with every Code Red announcement placing the names of friends, family or friends and family of family and friends who you realize are now running for their lives and you pray for hearing that follow-up report as to whether it was an intercepted rocket or one which fell harmlessly and there was nobody injured or killed. When a rocket does strike a populated area and the news reports that there was only damage to a structure or a house was destroyed but the family had made it to their nearest shelter and no lives were lost or anybody seriously injured, you breathe a sigh of relief remembering that things can be replaced, rebuilt, or made right but people cannot be replaced. In Israel we take every individual fatality as if it were a close member of our own family because we think and feel like every Israeli is a member of our family as in many ways that is true. This feeling was made evident this past week when at the funerals for two lone soldiers, soldiers who made Aliyah and returned home to Israel without their parents or other family members with the full intention of joining the IDF, as they were of the age where Israeli men and women perform compulsory military or volunteer service, despite they’re not being required to do so until they gain full citizenship. Despite being in Israel without their family and having few other connections they only had thirty-thousand Israelis attending their funerals shedding tears and saying mourner’s Kaddish. Further, the Israeli government made arrangements to fly both of these young hero’s families to Israel within twenty-four hours of their sons’ deaths. Every funeral resulting from this war which was inflicted upon Israel and every Israeli had also been a testament of the depth and breadth of the love and care of a shared people be it a fallen soldier or one of the fallen civilians. People attend the funeral of a fallen Israel even if the only attachment previously had was they were from your town or the next town over and that makes it near enough to take personally. Some will travel the majority of the day just to be represented and thank those whose death was a result of protecting the land and its people, the people of which they are a member.

But there are other worries which we face which we have even less ability to control or influence and despite our being powerless to influence these, they play heavily on our minds. For many of us the most pressing of these is a result of the unprecedented and obvious political threat which was launched by President Obama when the Federal Aviation Administration suspended all United States flights, both passenger and cargo, sending the message to Prime Minister Netanyahu, every member of the Knesset and likely inadvertently every Israeli citizen that at the merest suggestion the United States government has the power and influence to economically stifle Israel and destroy her economically and bring Israel to her knees and force compliance. This was timed to coincide with the arrival of Secretary of State Kerry on his uninvited mission to force a cessation of the fighting before Israel can further destroy the tunneling infrastructure and military capabilities of Hamas, the representative of the Muslim Brotherhood in the war against Israel and the Jews. Further, Hamas must remain militarily viable if the Muslim Brotherhood is ever going to have a chance to return Morsi to what President Obama has claimed is his elected and rightful place as President of Egypt. This is part of the Middle East strategy which has driven the United States, Qatar and Turkey together and likely to have replaced Mahmoud Abbas as President Obama’s number one favorite friend, as he was on Inauguration Day in January 2009 when the newly sworn in President Obama made Chairman Abbas the first international politician he called from the Oval Office, and moved Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan into the number one BFF of the American President. The doubt this raises is what will the reaction of the Obama Administration be when Israel needs resupply of military supplies. Will the Israeli request be met with another isolating flight ban followed by President Obama woefully whining that his hands are tied and there is nothing he can do until the flight ban is lifted. Never mind that such a ban cannot be enacted placing an entire nation and an ally into isolation by banning all air flights to or from the country without Presidential approval, or more aptly, Presidential initiation of the entire idea.

Should such a step be in Israel’s future one might be pressed to ask, what else could go wrong? That is where everything would get very complicated and difficult for Israel as in such a situation it would be hard to believe that Iran would be able to pass up a golden opportunity to strike Israel when she is in a weakened and compromised position being cut off by her supposedly best friend and ally and military backer since the deal with the devil was first wrought to stop the development of the Lavi, the Israeli fourth generation jet fighter which would have been a direct competitor to the American F-16 in the world’s strongly contested market of military hardware. The trade made by Israel where she dropped any further development of jet fighters and agreed to be supplied by the United States with F-16s, F-15s and virtually everything militarily concerned including rounds for Israeli military firearms, rounds for the Merkava tanks, aircraft and their armaments and far more. A military embargo inflicted on Israel by the United States, which is what such a move would result in, would make Israel extremely vulnerable, especially should a second front be opened by Iran by having Hezballah strike out of Lebanon out of the Israeli northern border. This would not be all that impossible to visualize, it has already occurred. The year after Hamas took control over Gaza in a coup, Israel entered Gaza in an operation called “Summer Rains” on June 28, 2006, responding to Hamas’s abduction of Corporal Gilad Shalit. Close on the heels of the start of the conflict with Hamas in Gaza, Hezballah opened a second front attacking Israel’s northern towns with rockets setting up an assault with an anti-tank weapon on an Israeli armored Humvees patrolling the border killing three soldiers and abducting two soldiers. What followed was the Second Lebanon War and Israel fighting wars on two fronts. The same situation is one possibility which would only be furthered should Israel not be resupplied and appear to be in a weakened and vulnerable situation.

A two front war would place Israeli towns, cities, kibbutzim and Israelis on remotely situated farms in mortal jeopardy. Should rockets be launched at Israel from two fronts, it would place a strain on the abilities of the vaunted Iron Dome systems. Places currently defended by a single Iron Dome would require at least two systems as threats would be launched from two separate and opposite directions. This would force the Israeli government and military to pick and choose which places would continue to be protected and which would be left completely at the mercy of fortune and in the hands of G0d. To protect as many citizens as possible there would be a necessity to offer relocation to safer areas to those Israelis living in places no longer covered as completely by the Iron Dome systems. The potential for such a scenario should frighten any sane and reasonably intelligent person as Israel would be under threat in a weakened position which can be best related in the natural world to an injured animal with young to protect. This is simply a geopolitical situation to be utilized and played for maximum favorable outcomes where nations could take the vulnerable situation, even of a presumed ally, to dangerous levels. Israel would be the victim of such a power play and end up facing a dire situation with her entire existence threatened. There is one saving grace in this situation, and it came into existence as a result of this exact scenario which played out in Yom Kippur War in October 1973. President Nixon acted under the suggestion of his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger who advised that the United States initially deny Israel rearmament as agreed in order to make Prime Minister Golda Meir and the Israelis realize their vulnerability and influence them to a more plaint and agreeable state. This maneuver almost backfired as with Israeli forces being apparently overrun on two fronts, Egyptian and Syrian, appeared to enact what has been theorized as the Israeli final option and Prime Minister Golda Meir ordered the lids to the nuclear missile silos to be opened. This was almost immediately detected by the United States spy satellites and provided the necessary impetus for President Nixon to immediately provide all of the military aid Israel required. In the aftermath of this conflict there was an agreement between Israel and the United States whereby a complete resupply which might be necessary to equip an entire United States deployment in the Middle East such that they could be deployed in what is referred to as a light deployment and simply be armed upon arrival was placed within Israel in cold storage. This entire supply was also intended to be an initial resupply for the IDF to cover the interim period before resupply can arrive from the United States. What is even more advantageous is that the Israelis are permitted by the agreement to utilize should the need be realized. Still this military depository would not be sufficient to last the entirety of a prolonged conflict, especially one on two fronts. The one other ramification of such a scenario would be the inevitable accusations that the Israelis were sacrificing protection for Arab neighborhoods in favor of Jewish neighborhoods.

There is one last ramification which is still to materialize from the current conflict with Hamas which will arrive from various directions and sources. These will be the inevitable attempts to bring Israeli political and military leadership and possibly individual soldiers before courts on charges of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity. There will be no similar tribunals arraigning any of the Hamas leadership, only Israelis are considered to have committed such crimes similarly to the concept that only Palestinians are suffering from the conflict while the Israelis are partying in the streets and facing absolutely no threats or danger. This has been a situation which has been prevalent in ever increasing frequency where Israeli leadership, both military and political, are arraigned on charges whenever they travel outside of Israel. This was recently on display when Israeli Minister of Justice was invited to Britain for some innocent sounding reason but actually it was arranged so that she could meet with Secretary of State Kerry and Chairman Abbas despite having been cautioned not to meet Abbas by the Prime Minister. The British found it necessary to guarantee Ms. Livni complete immunity as they felt assured that the pro-Palestinian groups would seek a friendly judge to swear out a warrant on charges of having been a party in war crimes and crimes against humanity simply for serving as a Foreign Minister during “Operation Cast Lead” against Hamas in late 2008 through early 2009. Similar events have restricted Israeli officials from attending courses, lectures, events of numerous venues or even take a vacation. This situation exists almost exclusively in European nations who have chosen to take upon themselves the authority to adjudicate war crimes, crimes against humanity and similarly related criminal offensives.

The future in Israel is, as usual, in a state of flux and uncertainty as there are many forces doing everything possible to force a ceasefire as immediately as their efforts can accomplish seemingly in order to preserve as much of Hamas’s resources and war fighting capabilities from the Israeli efforts to destroy those very same capabilities. The world reaction to Israeli efforts to eliminate as much of the Hamas ability to commit terrorist acts and make war against Israel or also assist the forces of the Muslim Brotherhood in their struggle to resume their rule in Egypt through the reinstatement of Morsi as President has been less than morally exemplary. As preposterous as such may seem, one might consider such more plausible when they keep in mind that there are efforts to supply the rebels in Syria which will knowingly be likely to provide arms and other provisions for the al-Nusa Front and even ISIS. If Western governments are willing to arm the likes of former and present al-Qaeda affiliates, then why would they shy from doing similar for Hamas as they are allied with the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood, a seeming ally and similarly aligned pair of terror organizations if ever there were such. Geopolitical relations are quite often best revealed during times of conflict and warfare through the actions or inactions, support or denial of assistance, alliance or opposition, all forms of aid being granted or frozen, and even such items as continuation or disruption of commercial and passenger flights into and out of a particular area. That is why the recent disruption of air transport in and out of Israel was so telling as during the same period there was no such interruption of flights to and from Syria, Iraq or the Ukraine. Telling, very telling, revealing and of great interest. Any reply from President Obama of questions into the reasons for that suspension would be quite intriguing but is something we will only be able to postulate about as no such questioning will ever be put to the President by the mainstream media. As stated as an answer to a Chinese curse, “Yes, we indeed do live in strange and interesting times.”

Beyond the Cusp

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