Anyone Just a Little Tense?

 

May is getting really close. That is the day that President Trump is ready to no longer renew waivers on sanctions against importers of Iranian oil. That is the red line Iran claims will result in their closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That waterway is the chokepoint of almost one-third of the world’s oil. The United States has vowed they will keep the waterways open no matter what it takes. The United States has two aircraft carriers in the region, one in the Persian Gulf and the other in the Mediterranean Sea amongst others including an Amphibious Assault Unit. These have been supplemented with other weapon systems deployed around the region.

 

One has to consider that Iran technically controls all government decision making over an area near that of the United States, from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea over which they can threaten a broad array of countries. Granted, the United States has placed a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in Israel, which can provide a fair-sized umbrella of protection. Additionally, there are any number of support vessels supporting each carrier which includes defensive anti-missile technologies. We hope that everyone has thought this through to a conclusion and realize that, as the WOPR defense computer stated in the movie War Games, “Strange game. The only winning move is not to play.” We guess some in the world have yet to figure out that war is always a loss of resources simply for the destruction of resources already in use. Yes, the rebuilding provides work, providing the workplace is not a smoking, radio-active bombsite. The problem in this scenario is that one side may be under-estimating what the other side has in the way of offensive capabilities. Everyone knows that the United States has almost any weapon system you could ever need in surplus. What is unknown is the extent to which Iran is close to equal in their capabilities. The United States has the brighter, shinier and larger vessels, but Iran uses hundreds of dedicated individuals willing to ram those nice shiny ships and blow both of them up, one completely and the other a great gash in the hull. Iranian missile technology is another unknown as they are known to have ballistic missiles, but what is unknown is whether or not they have ICBM’s capable of striking the United States mainland. “Strange game. The only winning move is not to play.”

 

War Games WOPR Computer

 

But that is one of the problems when something such as this is started, one side has to blink before the other and preferably before too much of the planet is destroyed either economically or literally. Living in Israel makes one even more attuned to these situations because we are always a handy target to get somebody’s point across, and Israel will shoot it down anyway. Well, they will, won’t they? Well, we sure hope they can and do. It would ruin a whole week or more if one got through depending on the target and accuracy. There are two more unknowns though the accuracy question is the Iranian missiles can be extremely accurate. But isn’t that why the United States placed a THAAD system in Israel? Actually, that is only part of the reason. Another reason is that the United States often places or provides systems to Israel because we are more likely to need them and thus serve as an actual live-fire testing ground. It was just such testing that provided some vital information about a weakness, a blind spot, in the F-16 fighters. Since then they have all been upgraded with side-view mirrors so they can basically see behind their tail which can be quite vital to not being shot down. OK, so that wasn’t all that high tech, why do things have to be complicated. Sure, they could have placed a camera in the tail and a monitor in the cockpit such that when the picture cuts out, there is probably something on your tail shooting at you.

 

F16 with After Modification Rear-view Mirrors

 

There have been many other upgrades which have come from Israeli use of weapons such as the around the corner gun, a rifle with remote firing and a camera looking down the barrel so the soldier does not need to stick their heads out to see if it is clear. Unfortunately, when war comes to Israel, the civilians are the target group and the safest place is on an IDF military base. This, amongst a million other obvious arguments, is why Israel has spent so much on rocket and missile defense. We love when people ask why Israel is not spending billions of Shekels countering the anti-Israel propaganda war being fought against her. We simply ask them if they lived here, which would they prefer Israel invest, fighting words or fighting incoming projectiles. When it is put that way, it becomes amazing how quickly people realize that you can really only fight one war at a time and one type of war is always coming and kills people, the other is made up fabrications which truth will hopefully win in the end. We know that is wishful thinking, but we will live with things as they are and be glad should we ever need those defenses.

 

There is one thing which is an integral part of living in Israel, that is becoming nervous when things look as if they may boil over and spill into your own back yard. This is definitely one of those times as Iran has promised that in the case of hostilities with the United States, they intend to strike Israel first. This was the same threat given by Saddam Hussein when he was facing against President George Bush, both of them. They both attacked, Iraq and Iraq launched ballistic missiles at Israel. Fortunately, the vast majority were intercepted and the few which struck Israel did minimal damage and resulted in almost no losses of life. We are not sure what it is that makes these Middle East dictators threaten to strike Israel if the United States does anything as if such a threat would mean anything to the average American President. Their view is that Israel can take care of themselves just as long as they do not attack their aggressor. So, when Saddam Hussein launched a series of scud missiles at Israel, the United States demanded that Israel stand down and they would take care of the launchers of the scud missiles. Needless to point out, they missed a number of them which struck Israel for close to a week during the first Gulf War. President Bush was far more concerned with keeping his Arab allies than having Israel retaliate. There have been rumors that Israel was permitted to strike a single town from which the scud missiles had been launched and even then, only for one day. Further rumors claimed that this town ceased to exist in a single day. We are unable to confirm nor deny these rumors and present them simply for discussion.

 

Iran is a completely different matter as for them to strike Israel, they will need to use some of their furthest reaching and best guided missiles, at least as their current abilities are considered to be capable of launching. Further, these are their most advanced missiles according to current intelligence and they can carry biologic, chemical or nuclear warheads. This will require that every single missile be intercepted otherwise Israel could be facing a mass casualty strike. The entirety of the Middle East, even the Mullahs of Iran, that should Israel be attacked with any WMD, weapons of mass destruction, be they chemical, biologic or nuclear, will be responded to by Israel with the sole Israeli WMD, nuclear warheads. Israel unofficially has a few nuclear weapons capable of serious damage. Many intelligence sources claim Israel has between seventy-five and two-hundred nuclear warheads they could place atop a Jericho ballistic missile and deploy such to anywhere in the Middle East, North Africa, Europe and if necessary, Israel is capable of striking anywhere on the globe. But Israel, and most Israelis, would prefer to never need to respond to an attack, especially using any WMD’s even in response to such an attack upon Israel. We want peace and quiet without the threats of terrorism, invasion, genocidal WMD attacks or any other form of violence of which one could think. We would far more appreciate being the source of discoveries, technological developments, cures, vaccinations, hybrid fruits and vegetables, plants capable of being grown in the desert with minimal water needs or a myriad of other advancements for the benefit of all mankind. But, despite the demand to design anti-missile systems such that Israel is capable of intercepting very short range projectiles, medium range missiles and rockets, long range rockets and missiles and ballistic missiles and even ICBM’s plus even the Trophy Systems for all varieties of military vehicles from main battle tanks to the generals field Humvee, there is a video at the link which is short and gives an overview of the Trophy System, and yes, you can add this threat defense system to the list of military advances Israel shares with the United States. The Trophy Systems as well as Iron Dome, Arrow Anti-missile Defense, David’s Sling Ballistic Missile Defense and other Israeli systems are currently protecting Israel and United States equipment and other critical assets.

 

Living in Israel is usually not very frightening and, despite what the news reports, you are less likely to be attacked including terrorism in Israel than one would be in the United States. Just like the United States, one can reduce their vulnerability simply by not traveling through specific areas. Our lives here have been quiet, peaceful and rewarding. We have found groups of friends and many activities which would have been next to impossible in the United States. People in Israel are mostly very friendly and willing to assist others. Charitable giving in Israel would be impossible to monitor as beyond the collection box at Synagogue which goes to charity and would be trackable, people are quite generous to those who are unable of finding employment to such an extent that one could afford modest accommodations and sufficient food from the generosity of others. Even many store owners have developed relations with people such that they are provided with goods. Even the coffee store where we purchase our coffee beans, yes, we are coffee snobs, he gives ground beans to a number of individuals who provide meals for those in need, organizations who have a meager budget and pay what they can and others who are just people of limited means. Perhaps it is knowing that at any moment war can be thrust upon Israel from every direction with the possible exception of from the west, but even the Mediterranean Sea could be part of an offensive upon our very small nation.

 

One has to remember, though Israel is often cast by the media and others as being this powerhouse nation which could withstand almost any form of attack, Israel is not the United States, it is New Jersey in size and when it comes to warfare, size matters. Fortunately, we have a cold peace with Egypt and another with Jordan, though there have been demonstrations in Jordan demanding that they need to attack Israel and be rid of the Jewish menace in the Middle East, plus we are technically still in states of war with Lebanon (Hezballah) and Syria. Syria has more than sufficient problems that attacking Israel is something some of the forces supporting Bashir al-Assad will attempt, especially the Iranian al-Quds Force and Lebanon will not strike at Israel unless instructed to open up a front in order to draw attentions away from Iran. Thus, the main front which remains active is with Gaza where Hamas finds it easier and more profitable for their leaders to keep the people rioting along the Israeli border as they blame Israel for every problem within their society. Truth be told, it has been the misuse of building supplies intended for rebuilding moneys and apartment buildings but instead used to build bunkers, tunnels, rocket launching positions underground, and infiltration tunnels under the Gaza border into Israel intending to use them whenever they press to force another war upon Israel. So, how are Israelis taking the new confrontational situation?

 

This current face-off between President Trump and the Mad Mullahs of Tehran does have many in Israel concerned, and rightfully so. We know that both sides have a problem with backing down and that unless one does blink and back down, then there will be another Middle East active conflict. As mentioned, this would be a conflict involving two sides fairly evenly matched for region of direct control as Iran currently has virtual control over Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen and partial control in Syria including the border with Israel along the Golan Heights. Looking at the current situation, President Trump recognizing the Golan Heights as part of Israel was required in advance of the ending of the waivers for export of Iranian oil. President Trump knew that the first front which Iran would open up would be against Israel just to see what the United States would do as far as reacting to protect Israel. Were the American planners taking the smart road, they would barely react to such an attack at all instead depending on the Israelis to defend themselves and address any threat from out of Syria. Would Iran turn loose Hezballah against Israel with a stockpile of approximately one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles, then the United States is likely to assist in the destruction of these threats before they could be fully utilized. One can be assured that Israel knows where these missiles are stored and the locations of their launchers, even including the mobile launchers. That is probably the reason for a carrier strike group sitting in the Mediterranean off of the Syrian and Lebanese shorelines.

 

We are all holding our breath, not really, but hoping that one side backs down, and we prefer for it to be Tehran as, should the United States back down, then Iran would figure they were the more powerful country and thus would increase the attacks they finance across the Middle East and the world. President Trump has placed himself in a precarious position as should the Iranians press the issue over who actually controls the Strait of Hormuz, that would place not only Iranian fast ships against the United States fleets ships but also land-based launchers and artillery against American air-power. Iranians possess both Russian anti-aircraft missiles as well as their own reverse engineered and presumably improved versions of these systems. Additionally, there is a group consisting of Iranian warships and support vessels of undetermined size presumably headed for the United States eastern seaboard. This is their response to the American fleet close to the Iranian shoreline and within the main oil shipping lanes including the Strait of Hormuz. It is entirely possible that some of their apparent support vessels might be outfitted with a system allowing for them to fire ballistic missiles as far as a thousand miles making the majority of American cities along the coastline vulnerable to attack should hostilities begin. Such an attack on the American homeland would cause an escalation with its conclusion as anybody’s guess. Everything turns on one supposition, does Iran already have a nuclear warhead which is usable and if so, how many do they have. Most sources assume that Iran has yet to develop a nuclear capable warhead as they have been unable to miniaturize their system. We believe that this is nothing more than wishful thinking and that any war between Iran and the United States would turn nuclear in a very short period after its commencement. We foresee an Iranian ultimatum for the United States to cease hostilities or else. The or else would be left unstated, but should the brain-trust within the CIA and Military Defense establishment believe that Iran is not capable of having any weapons which could be considered an ‘or else’ and the Iranians have a warhead and the missile with which to deploy it and strike the American mainland, even if it was from a ship in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans, then such a conflict would become all but uncontrollable as the stakes grow ever larger. Imagine the American response were New York to be struck with a nuclear weapon taking out most if not all of Staten Island or Manhattan. It could be Boston or Washington D.C. being struck at the same time. They might even target West Palm Beach in order to destroy Mar-a-Lago and any of these would bring an American response which is currently unthinkable. This is the risk the world is facing and we advise everybody, especially the two adversaries, to be very uncomfortable and take great care in planning their next steps. This is a situation where one wrong move could start a spiraling confrontation drawing in more and more nations resulting in something well beyond what was initially envisioned. Such underestimations of the strength and capabilities of an enemy have resulted in broader and more damaging conflicts throughout history. But then history is one of those subjects not being taught properly thus most younger people have little knowledge of the past, which is frightening.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

President Obama Gains Treaty Passage Augmented by Iranian Slanders

 

Speaking to Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) soldiers Wednesday, Brigadier General Mohsen Kazzemeini exclaimed “They (the US and the Zionists) should know that the Islamic Revolution will continue enhancing its preparedness until it overthrows Israel and liberates Palestine.” Brigadier General Kazzemeini continued by proclaiming, “We will continue defending not just our own country, but also all the oppressed people of the world, especially those countries that are standing on the forefront of confrontation with the Zionists.” He was quoted further declaring the intentions of Iran and IRGC troops would continue their military interventions in surrounding countries supporting friendly forces in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

 

Earlier Wednesday the Basij militiamen were on hand in Tehran to unveil a plaque with ‘100 insults’ towards America, with Iranians protesting outside the site of the former US embassy which included their intents against three main enemies of the moment by a display which also involved the public burning of Israeli, American and British flags outside the site. Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, the ultraconservative leader of the eighty-six clerics elected from a select group approved by the Supreme Leader and a committee of the most ardent supporters of the 1979 Islamist Revolution, Iranian media reported as declaring, the nuclear arrangement will not “change our foreign policy” nor will it affect or change the Iranian hatreds for the United States as their “our number one enemy, whose crimes are uncountable.” Ayatollah Yazdi was said to have claimed that, “The US and Israel are the source of the situation in the region and (their stated) goal is to protect the Zionist regime in the Middle East.” The Ayatollah was quoted further indicating the Iranian support for their forces fighting the conflicts caused by the United States and Israel in the conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

 

 

Iranian Protesting outside the site of the former US embassy which included their intents against three main enemies of the moment by a display which also involved the public burning of Israeli, American and British flags.

 

 

 

Just last week as support for President Obama’s and Secretary of State Kerry’s negotiated nuclear agreement (read “Treaty” which is not to be treated as a treaty and thus requiring the passage and likely a veto override to terminate its implementation) climbed towards denying the enactment of the legislation, Iranian Parliament Speaker’s Adviser for International Affairs Hossein Sheikholeslam was quoted as saying, “Our positions against the usurper Zionist regime have not changed at all; Israel should be annihilated and this is our ultimate slogan.” Sheikholeslam rebuffed Hammond’s earlier declaration, “What we’re looking for is behavior from Iran, not only towards Israel but towards other players in the region, that slowly rebuilds their sense that Iran is not a threat to them.” Sheikholeslam further rebuffed Hammond for calling for past hostilities between Iran and Britain to be allowed to fade into the past declaring that Iran “will never forget the past and Britain’s colonialist moves.”

 

These and likely so much more that we are not learning about, due to media denial being almost as stupefying and stuck in rejection as the Administration, has been acting to deny even the most glaring misconceptions they have claimed about Iran. Where I do not deny that Presidential Chief Adviser Valerie Jarrett has deep family roots within Iran as she was born Persian (Iranian) though she was educated in the United States, there is little other than that and the selected excerpts attributed to her and used to fashion her as an Islamist ideologue. There also exist rumors pertaining to Mohammad Javad Zarif Khonsari, (Persian: محمدجواد ظریف خوانساری), the Iranian Foreign Minister and Lead Negotiator for Iran Nuclear Agreement, and Secretary of State John Kerry, the chief American and Senior Member and Spokesperson of the P5+1 delegation, were presumably invited and in attendance at a dinner party hosted by George Soros at his Manhattan penthouse over a decade ago. Who knows if they were seated next to each other or across the table or did they converse at any length during the entire evening or were they simple among the guests and had no ascertainable or significant interactions. Valerie Jarrett was intimated to have worked with George Soros or as one of the presiding members of George Soros’s Open Society or other interest. Read into these presumably damning connections or simply believe they were doing their parts in carrying out the orders from the Administration, in which they serve which may have come from wherever and whoever is in charge. Who knows the true interplay between Mohammad Zarif, John Kerry, Valerie Jarrett, George Soros and President Obama or even Michelle Obama and whoever else people have placed into the conspiracy soup and brought to a low roiling boil. The only thing that matters in the end are the terms of the <a=http://wp.me/PIou8-1RL target=blank>Iran Nuclear Agreement of July 14, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and any addendums and side deals accepted by the separate Parties or the IAEA.

 

 

Mohammad Javad Zarif nuclear treaty Khonsari : (Persian محمدجواد ظریف خوانساری) the Iranian Foreign Minister and Lead Negotiator for Iran Nuclear Agreement, and Secretary of State John Kerry casually talking aside from the rigors of debating positions on the Iran

 

 

There was an early declaration in which then Candidate and Senator Obama stated in speeches that his Administration would use diplomacy and spurn the use of military if at all possible. He also stated that he intended to have an outstretched and open hand reaching out to Iran in order to pull the Iranian governance into the family of nations. This was to end all the bad blood and isolation imposed through embargoes and trade isolation. Candidate Obama made sure that his primary foreign interest had nothing to do with Western nations, Israeli interests or their ability for defending themselves. He disregarded any of the previous situations the Bush Administration had bequeathed him starting with ending production of the F-22 Raptor stealth fifth generation fighter, the ultimate plane in that class, opting for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Next President Obama reneged on the deal to place radar in the Czech Republic and anti-missile defense launcher in Poland offering in its place one Arleigh Burke Class Aegis Destroyer to perform the same defense as the land based system. The President promised to defend Islam from slanders and deridement while forcing an advancement of negotiations between Arab Palestinians and Israel by pressuring total capitulation and potentially complete surrender of all of Jerusalem and the connecting road and rail lines to Tel Aviv to the west.

 

 

Arleigh Burke Class Aegis Destroyer on maneuvers

 

 

There was one last target President Obama had placed constant and total commitment to bring Iran into the family of nations even if accomplished by bludgeoning the rest of the family of nations not only into accepting Iran but also to accept a fully nuclear armed Iran which has its tentacles reaching across the bottom of the Saudi Peninsula, to the Mediterranean Sea in Syria and Lebanon and also potentially holding all trade routes hostage because of where they can place mines and covered through use of artillery at the choke points in the Striates of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb. Iran, like Islamic State, has desires and designs to spread Islam, their own interpretation of Islam; Shia for Iran and Sunni for Islamic State. So none of this should come as the surprises the media is making them out to be. President Obama had a defined and distinct set of objectives and he has reached the near completion of his terms and intended goals and has certainly accomplished not only bringing Iran into the family of nations but also made for a great initiative to allow them to purchase all their little darkened hearts’ desire and still have more than sufficient funds to buy a few additional breeder reactors, centrifuges for a new clandestine enrichment and weapons plant rumored to be likely underneath south-central Tehran below a number of buildings including a medical campus with hospitals and clinics and a shopping mall, all of which which will have its entrance in a subbasement which will provide the necessary clandestine entrance.

 

President Obama has staked his domestic policy on remolding the United States into another European Union except that in President Obama’s system the entirety of policy comes from the President on all things unless he should face overwhelming opposition, namely the Congress being capable of preventing a veto clearing with two-thirds vote thus able to override any veto. There have been any numbers of people who claim that President Obama has destroyed by his complete disregard for the United States of America’s Constitution. That claim is not without merit but the Imperial Presidency is far from anything new as another President have ignored or actually nullified the Constitution by suspending habeas corpus in order to arrest people opposing President Lincoln. He had arrested the entire Maryland Legislature in order to prevent them from joining the Confederated States of America, aka the South or revolutionaries. In the case appearing before the Supreme Court known as Worcester vs. Georgia, where after the Supreme Court overturned the findings of the lower courts’ rulings, President Andrew Jackson reportedly responded: “John Marshall has made his decision; now let him enforce it!” Still, President Obama has appeared to have some of the most severe obstructions which bind the administration’s actions for as long as possible behind denials and cover-ups.

 

 

Constitution Preamble against Obama in a Death Tearing Match and against a piece of Parchment some thought erroneously the President would have met his match

 

 

We will soon realize the fruits of the Iran nuclear decisions and feel some of the ramifications. If you thought Obama Care was a disaster, just imagine what Iran will be capable of with an anxious Europe to close business deals, and the Chinese and Russians attempting to get some form of financial relief for their economic doldrums, visualizing arms orders for them to fill for Iran that are worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Oddly enough the United States will not be receiving any orders from Iran for goods or services; they would rather enrich the Europeans who do not pose a military challenge to Iran. The Iranians are more likely to order items from Israel than they are the United States. There should be people on watch for any suspicious acts which may be the preliminary reconnaissance at very public places, especially baseball and football games as stadiums make a perfect target for nerve agents, especially if it is a heavier than air molecule which some of the most lethal have the lingering along the ground and in a stadium it would just linger around the lower deck and all the lower exit ramps just sitting their deadly, silent, colorless, odorless and fatal after two breaths which means after you have run fifteen to twenty feet you fall dead. This could be done by a group of terrorists who posed or actually run one of the vendor areas in the stadium such that they could bring in tanks of compressed agent colored to appear like regular CO2 and taking the select few to the top deck and sit them so the stream will tumble down the walkway and through the railings and start building up at field level. Yes, they would need to run their stand for six months or so before they could bring in a couple of extra tanks each week until they had sufficient for their attack. And do not get on us for giving them any ideas as if we can imagine such, they probably already ruled that one out as the risks outweigh the probabilities of success. Still, they will have the money to watch every movie and see the blimp attack that was foiled as the blimp reached the stadium, wasn’t the greatest story ever told, that’s for sure. But President Obama and his several mouthpieces, including the two biggest misadventures ever to grace a podium, Joe Biden and John F (for nothing) Kerry, will be out touting the great advantages and how they played Iran and really got them with their fabulous deal and restriction that when applied the Iranians will never see it coming and boy will they be caught with their pants down. Then they will try to make one of their surprises they claim were in the del and run right into Iranians holding guns and blocking the inspectors and everybody else at the airport and, if they are lucky, placing them right back on the plane before it leaves and if unlucky they will be given accommodations which do not quite live up to Holiday Inn Express accommodations. It will be fun as long as you miss all the fun.

 

Beyond the Cusp