Beyond the Cusp

June 25, 2018

Middle East Reality Strikes President Trump

 

President Trump has yet to figure out the single most important truth about the Middle East. If you are unsure what this truth is, do not feel bad as none of the Presidents since President Truman have figured it out either and even President Truman and those before him back to President Jefferson did not figure it out either. Truth be told, President Jefferson was the sole President to figure out the Middle East equation, an equation which has not altered a single iota since then. The other problem is most people in this era have little memory or ever had knowledge of history, even the history of their own nation. This is true of Americans and apparently all too true of far too many modern Jews despite the center of our faith being remembering our past and celebrating that past where such is called for and mourn those happenings which can only be commemorated while not appropriate for celebration. The claim that Jews spend an inordinate amount of time and energy commemorating the past is true and will continue to be true as it is our past, which sets us apart and our very beginnings, which define our faith and our existence today. That is a truth about Judaism and why Israel, this little slice of land which is less than one-fourth of one percent of the lands in the Muslim world usually defined as the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa), is of such paramount importance to the Jewish People even in this modern era. But this is about President Trump and the problem his “Deal of the Century” faces as it has just run headfirst into the difficulty of the Middle East.

 

Presidents Jefferson, Truman and Trump

Presidents Jefferson, Truman and Trump

 

President Trump has based his “Deal of the Century” on replacing the implacable PLO or Palestinian Authority with Jordan, Egypt or possibly even Saudi Arabia. The easiest one of these nations to rule out is Saudi Arabia. President Bush who was a great friend of the Saudi Royal Family approached them for assistance in finding a solution during his administration. Instead of coming rushing to his aid, they simply took some time and met with other leaders of the Arab League and other Arab nations and eventually produced the Saudi Plan. The plan is also called the Arab Plan and is not very much different from the previous demands. Like every other proposed plan, this one also demands the pre-June 1967 lines, also known as the Green Line, completely erasing the losses from the Six Day War and resetting the area back to the borders which the Arab world found so inviting for destroying Israel that they simply had to attack. This is the initial demand, basically demanding a do-over for the Six Day War. Then it demands that there be a satisfactory solution be found for the Palestinian refugee problem. This is another standard where it is demanded that Israel accept anywhere from five to eight million Arab refugees and grant them their rightful citizenship in Israel transforming Israel into another Muslim majority nation which after the next election will soon star to destroy the Jewish population if any Jews wait that long before fleeing for their lives. Their claim is that since Israel is a democratic nation which provides for religious freedom, what complaint can the Israelis have in accepting these refugees? The problem is we have seen what happens to a nation once the Muslims become the majority by looking north to what had been predominantly Christian Lebanon which is now ruled by Hezballah which is armed and threatening to destroy Israel. The promise to Israel was should they accept this deal the Muslim Arab nations would consider recognizing and normalizing relations with Israel. Many people love to claim they promised to accept and have normal relations with Israel which is untrue, they only promised to think about doing such. Our bet is they would wait until Israel became yet another Arab Muslim nation before changing anything. The entirety of the Saudi Plan would be unacceptable but oddly enough, it was rejected by Yasser Arafat before it was presented as a plan to Israel.

 

That was the grand deal from Saudi Arabia and we are willing to bet that even the new leader, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, would not bring that big of a change, especially this early in his rule. His immediate plans are apparently domestic though he is not about to completely ignore the outside world. Prince Mohammed bin Salman will definitely watch the Saudi Arabian nemesis, Iran, and watch them closely. Israel is a problem which he does not require and as much as he probably would love to befriend President Trump, there are some requests which would be one too far. Prince Mohammed bin Salman might be willing to place the agreement of Saudi Arabia to any plan which proves acceptable to the Arab League and the rest of the Arab World as well as the Palestinian Arab leadership. That is where the knot of the problem sits.

 

Looking to Egypt and a year ago, that might have been a possibility but President Sisi is not sitting in as strong a position and much of his efforts will be to assure that he remains President of Egypt even if elections have to be massaged. His is an easy problem to define, and it is defined Muslim Brotherhood. Yes, he outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood, but being outlawed and being expunged from the Egyptian population are two very different things. Much of the rural and poor population in Egypt receives assistance from Muslim Brotherhood Imams and officials and with the food, you win their support. It is a political equation as old as politics and probably older. President Sisi has also been in a running struggle with the Imams at Al-Azhar University in his effort to modernize Islam and turn them from their absolutist beliefs and bring Islam back from the precipice which abrogation placed them. President Sisi is attempting to end the insistence of domination over all other religions and the inevitability for conquest of the world bringing all to worship only Allah and allow for Islam to become a modernist religion where it will find a path for accommodating a plurality of religion and for the existence of lands which are not ruled by Muslims. Sisi is fighting fourteen-hundred years of history coming from the initial Caliphate and continuing through the Ottoman Empire. Should he fail, then Islam will continue on its path of confrontation and attempts at conquest continuing from time to time until they finally either conquer the world and bring all to Islam or are eradicated by a world no longer willing to accept their consistent resorting to confrontations. So, Egypt is out.

 

This leaves Jordan. President Trump has first placed his hopes with Jordan. Just this past week Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited King Abdullah in Amman, Jordan. Probably the easiest and most informative means of taking measure of their meeting would be to quote their statements which they released after their talks. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s response was given in an official Press Release stating, “Prime Minister Netanyahu and King Abdullah of Jordan met today in Amman. The King and the Prime Minister discussed regional developments, advancing the peace process and bilateral relations. Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated Israel’s commitment to maintaining the status quo at the holy sites in Jerusalem.” You have to love the conciseness of his emotionless, flat statement completely devoid of emotion.

 

King Abdullah was far more expressive in his communique. His statement came as follows (We initially tried to go to the link but found it nonfunctional. The article we relied upon for the King’s response can be read here),

 

“His Majesty King Abdullah, at a meeting on Monday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who departed Jordan after a short visit, stressed the need to make progress in efforts to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on the basis of the two-state solution and in accordance with international law, relevant UN resolutions, and the Arab Peace Initiative.
“King Abdullah reaffirmed that the only way to achieve peace and stability in the region is by reaching a two-state solution and the establishment of a Palestinian state on the 4 June 1967 lines with East Jerusalem as its capital, living side by side with Israel in peace and security.”
“The King affirmed that Jordan will continue upholding its historical role in safeguarding Islamic and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem, in accordance with the Hashemite Custodianship.”

 

There are two items worth note, the first being the inclusion of safeguarding Christian holy sites with no reference to Jewish sites. The inclusion of Christian is taking additional right to having the right for control beyond the original agreed upon Islamic sites thus insisting on Jordan now having responsibility for all of the Temple Mount according to the King and further claiming that there is no holiness to Jews of the Temple Mount. This is a step towards preventing Jews from having access to the Temple Mount and a step backwards from recent events. The problem of the Temple Mount will likely now only start to escalate if Jordan decides to press the exclusion of Jews from the Temple Mount and, if the King follows the extremist views of the Palestinian Authority, denial of use of the plaza before the Western Wall, which Abbas has claimed is holy only to Islam. This path would lead to a direct confrontation testing relations between Israel and Jordan, a relationship which has grown colder on recent times.

 

The second issue is King Abdullah was simply restating the unresponsive position which Mahmoud Abbas and also Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Arab position since 1917 when the British declared their intent for a Jewish State with the Balfour Declaration and again throughout the following San Remo Conference, Treaty of Serves, the Mandate System, United Nations General Assembly Resolution 181 and finally the Declaration of the independence of the State of Israel in May of 1948. What he stated was that Jordan would demand that there be a Palestinian Arab state formed along the pre-Six Day War Green Line including eastern Jerusalem and the provisions of the Arab Initiative as described above includes the imposing of five to eight million Arab refugees into Israel making it another Arab Muslim nation as soon as elections would be held.

 

So, what is it that President Trump has run into? He has struck what we would refer to as the Islamic Brick Wall. President Jefferson figured it out as the Barbary Pirates demanded more and more protection payments and whenever the United States resisted returned to taking sailors from American ships until the payments were made. He also had heard it from the Ambassador Sidi Haji Abdul Rahman in London representing the Dey of Algiers who controlled the Barbary Pirates. Ambassador Sidi Haji Abdul Rahman Adja had answered that Islam, “It was founded on the Laws of their Prophet, that it was written in their Quran, that all nations who should not have acknowledged their authority were sinners, that it was their right and duty to make war upon them wherever they could be found, and to make slaves of all they could take as Prisoners, and that every Musselman (Muslim) who should be slain in Battle was sure to go to Paradise.”

 

Islam is a religion of conquest founded on beliefs which coalesced in the first hundred and fifty to two hundred years where abrogation placed the parts of the Quran written in Medina which contradicted the Mecca verses as abrogating the earlier verses. Egypt President Sisi is one of the most public persons who have called for abrogation to be reversed and the Mecca Quran, the original writings of Muhammad, as having primacy. Until Islam, if ever they should, follows the desires of President Sisi and his fellow patrons for amending the precedence of the later verses allowing the multicultural and more open Mecca verses guide modern Islam, there cannot be surrender of any lands by Islamic nations. This means that Israel, as well as Spain (Andalusia), must be erased and the lands returned to Islamic rule. Further, Muslims are to be pledged to forging a world where only Allah is worshiped and Islam is the sole religion. This is why Islamic nations strive to eradicate all other religions within their borders. This is also why Israel is the only nation in the Middle East where the Christian population is increasing. Saudi Arabia has places where no non-Muslim is permitted to tread, and by places, we mean entire cities such as both Mecca and Medina. Further, it is illegal and punishable by death to be a follower of Judaism, Christianity or religion other than Islam in Saudi Arabia. The supremacy of Islam is so defined that it even reaches to the point that one must practice the correct form of Islam thus the enmity between the Sunni and Shiite Muslims and Saudi Arabia and Iran, each the preeminent nation of each form of Islam. Iran has already made it clear that their intent is world conquest starting with Saudi Arabia and then on to Israel and the United States. The Saudi Arabians are more passive as Sunni Islam includes at least 85% of all Muslims with almost the entirety of the rest being Shiites. Either way, Islam, both Sunni and Shiite with Shiite being the more active currently, live by the concept of the sword, thus it matters little to the world which one is dominant, they will both eventually attempt to dominate. What is possibly a saving grace is that many in Islam pledge to make their founding school of Islam the dominant form which is part of why there are as many Islam-Islam wars. Below is a map of the numerous separate founders of the various forms of Islam. One can notice that Iran, Iraq, Qatar and Bahrain are the most populated Shiite Islamic centers while most of the rest of Islam belongs to some form of Sunni Islam.

 

The main Islamic madh'habs (schools of law) of Muslim countries or distributions

The main Islamic madh’habs (schools of law) of Muslim countries or distributions

 

Both forms of Islam hold Mecca and Medina as their most holy cities and none outside those speaking about Israel believe, and not even those speaking of Israel, that Jerusalem is the third most holy city in Islam. In Shiite Islam after Mecca and Medina they are Najaf, Karbala, Kathemiya, Samara, Mash’had and Qom are the next most holy cities. In Sunni Islam Mecca and Medina, they are Istanbul, Cairo, Kufa and Karbala. Oddly enough, Jerusalem is not mentioned in the Quran as Muhammad removed any reference to Jerusalem after the Jews refused him as their prophet. This happened even before he presented the Quran to be written down by a scribe, as Muhammad did not read or write. The reason that Jerusalem is noted today as the third most holy city is because it is the city which Islam desires to conquer, or reconqer, next. The honor of being the third most holy city has also been shared by Damascus, Constantinople, Rome, Paris, London and New York amongst others. It is all part of the promise from Allah that in the Quran states that Islam will rule the world and all will bend to Allah and his people.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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June 24, 2018

The Spreading Iranian Plague

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:53 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

The entirety of the events makes for a grand conspiracy or the script for a Hollywood movie script. The miracle is that if the story which we will lay out has any validity, then the American people intervened to foil the grand scheme and likely hardly realized their miraculous part in foiling the great laid plans of mice and men thus, as oft claimed, went awry. So, let us dive into a little theater of the absurd and believe that there might have been a master plan. It all starts with the events around the Arab Spring which, as we all remember, became more of an Arab Winter. One need inquire as to what avail and whose advantage would a plan to turn the Arab world upside down serve. Looking at the current picture and the answer becomes plain to see, it would serve allowing Iran to extend their power across the entirety of the Middle East and on to North Africa in the process taking control of the Arabian oil fields and the Suez Canal. This part almost came to fruition only being prevented by the Egyptian Military ending the Muslim Brotherhood taking over Egypt and Saudi Arabia coming to the rescue of Bahrain when the Shiites rose to overthrow their Sunni rulers. Without these two events, Egypt would have been weakened to such a point in the ensuing two years as the Muslim Brotherhood eviscerated the military command to solidify their hold, or so they would believe, and given Iran, the real beneficiary of the Arab turmoil, a solid foothold completely surrounding Saudi Arabia and for taking the rest of the Gulf States. Once Iran held the areas of Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Oman in addition to their ally Qatar and their hold of Yemen using the Houthis as their advance force, then strangling Saudi Arabia into eventual submission would have been set in motion. The completion of such would have left Kuwait equally vulnerable along with its oil wealth. Add in a weakened Egypt and Israel would have had the only force of equal or superior ability to prevent an Iranian assault. This was part of an initial phase which might be called the southern front.

 

Map of Face-off had Iran Taken Gulf States in Addition to Iraq Syria and Yemen

Map of Face-off had Iran Taken Gulf States
in Addition to Iraq Syria and Yemen

 

The northern front was a greater success as the great enabler needs only pull the United States military out of Iraq and leave the door open and the equipment in place for the taking. Once President Barack Obama pulled out the American forces, the Shia majority in Iraq quickly accepted Iranian assistance in routing their Sunni adversaries and taking their revenge for the years of suffering under Saddam Hussein. Iran is now assisting in the final part of the Shiafication of Iraq with the pressing the Kurds further and further north with Turkey now pressing them in Syria sweeping towards the Kurds in Iraq who will eventually find themselves fighting on two fronts. It will be interesting to see what develops when the Turkish push against the Kurds meets the Iran-Iraq push on the Kurds, which will not be of any advantage at that point for the Kurds. The final hurdle was taking the American equipment such as Abrams Heavy Battle Tanks and armored personnel carriers into the hands of Hezballah. This is where the plan received a probably unexpected break when the Islamic State rose up in the Sunni areas of Iraq and in Syria, where a civil war had left a large power vacuum, and brought much of that equipment into Syria where Iranian assisted forces of Hezballah and Iraq mopped up after the Kurdish forces had done the heavy lifting against ISIS. After the fall of the Islamic State, there were pictures of Iraqi and Hezballah troops riding around in their newly acquired Abrams tanks and armored vehicles. Iran, with an assist from Russian air cover, is now winning the war in Syria slowly taking back the rest of the beleaguered country. The Houthis have almost completed the taking of Yemen to the point that they now take an occasional missile strike against Saudi Arabia. Once Yemen has been completely subdued, Iran will hold control over two main choke points for all naval trade going through the Middle East from the vantages of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (see map below). The Strait of Hormuz controls the passage for all oil shipments from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia while and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait controls the southern entrance to the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal. With these two waterways controlled by Iran, all naval trade through the Middle East can be choked off by their shore batteries.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

As everything stands, Iran is slowly solidifying a large swath across the Middle East from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. They hold this through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon which they either are actively stationing forces or have their proxies holding the areas. The two areas they have left to complete are restoring Bashir al-Assad in Syria and completing their conquest of Yemen. Without Oman and the Gulf States, Iran is still stymied in their desires to take over the Saudi Arabian oil fields and coming up along the Red Sea coast to take Mecca and Medina which would permit Iran to claim that they were now the guardians of the Two Holy Cities of Islam. Iran also desires one more prize in Jordan as control of Jordan would provide them with an ability to strike the western coast of Saudi Arabia from both the north and south and complete their virtual surrounding of Israel leaving on the Sinai Peninsula border, which is held by Egypt which is why weakening Egypt was furtherly important, though Iran has injected some terror forces as well as Hamas aiding these forces from Gaza which Iran also controls. All of this brings us to the question of what exactly is going to happen this summer in Israel.

 

Currently, Hamas continues to hold daily rioting along the Gaza border which includes flying kites and launching balloons both carrying incendiary devices which have ignited near countless fires within Israel. These conflagrations have left millions of dollars worth of crops in smoldering ruin and destroyed forests and wilderness preserves. These riots include the burning of thousands of tires causing breathing problems and ecological damage which has risen almost off scale. The only comparable case of such damage, one which was levels of magnitude worse, was the almost unimaginable ecological damage caused by Saddam Hussein when upon leaving Kuwait he had his forces torch a large majority of that nation’s oil platforms. Hamas had fired a series of rockets early in the rioting after which Israel struck hard at Hamas and Islamic Jihad infrastructure. That had appeared to quell their desire to launch rockets into Israel for a while. They are once again firing rockets and this time in greater numbers. We suspect that this escalation has been taken at the insistence of Iran. The remaining question is exactly how far Iran will go in their attacks this summer. Always weighing over Israel like the Sword of Damocles are the over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles, a large number of which can strike with relative accuracy anywhere within Israel and beyond. That brings the question to the forefront, does Iran believe that an all-out war on two fronts will cause Israel sufficient damage to allow for its destruction.

 

Does Iran feel they have sufficient strength in place to destroy Israel in a single stroke lasting only a few weeks thus preventing the United States from intervening or do they believe that they are not yet prepared sufficiently to take that risk? This will be what Tehran will weigh before deciding to involve Hezballah creating a second front. There will always be the possibility that Iran would rather involve Israel in a greater conflict even believing that they will not prevail simply to consolidate their position at home. It would be a grand spectacle proving to the Iranian people that their hardship has been for a purpose, the eradication of the Zionist menace. They could even take a defeat and use it as a reason for a purge to eradicate their internal opposition thus eviscerating the political will to remove the Mullahs from power. Iran knows that even if they should be defeated, they would still hold all of Lebanon with Hezballah, Syria with Bashir al-Assad, Iraq with its Shia governance and the rest of their satellite nations. Further, a valiant effort against Israel would raise their image across the Muslim world and particularly the Arab world. This could cause unrest in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan leading to their making gains in taking control of any combination of these eventual goals. Everything has to be weighed as to how it might have an effect on the eventual Iranian goal of establishing the new Persian Empire reaching from Iran to Morocco. Unfortunately, Iran is one of those nations whose leaders honestly believe that they are destined by their supreme being, Allah in their case, to rule the world and bring everybody to believe in Shia Islam, or else. Thus, even a defeat at any one point now would not change their belief that eventually they will be victorious and glorious days will ensue as they rule the world. The one thing which the rulers of Iran must avoid is having their governance toppled, thus they will also be weighing what would be the chance that President Trump would decide that enough is enough and use the might and power of the United States to bring about regime change. This alone may be sufficient a threat to prevent Iran from pulling the trigger on Israel quite yet, but if they remain in power, the Mullahs will one day launch such an attack.

 

What might be the Israeli reaction to each of these scenarios? If Iran simply lets Hamas and Islamic Jihad carry their offensive, as long as they are not launching missiles into Israel day and night, it might remain a standoff at the level we have already witnessed. Should they start launching missiles into Israel and start striking the major population centers, then Israel will take whatever level of intervention to end their activities for the ensuing few years. There will always be the possibility that should Israel need go into Gaza once again, then they might cleanse the terror infrastructure clean including the leadership, security forces and whatever main support which exists in Gaza and turn Gaza over to the remainder of the population to elect a governance which will repair the damages which Hamas and Islamic Jihad have left untouched in order to complain and have the European Union and others send them more construction provisions which they use to construct tunnels. Gaza could be an economic power if governed correctly and could remain a troubled and economic disaster if they continue on their current path. Since Hamas and Islamic Jihad hold all the weapons and have secret police throughout the populace, there is little possibility of the people overthrowing the terrorists as they would simply kill everyone protesting and continue as if nothing had happened. When your governance is a group of terrorists, you basically are doomed to the likes of Gaza. What people have not heard is that despite there being thousands rioting, they are being paid to do so and still there are millions of Gazans not rioting despite the offer of three-hundred-dollars per day to do so. One can only hope those millions would desire new governance and an opportunity for a better life.

 

What if Iran does attempt to destroy Israel by starting a war in the south with Hamas and Islamic Jihad and then opening a second front out of Lebanon and Syria with Hezballah, the IRGC and Quds Force? The main question then is would Israel hold Iran responsible for this added misery, and if so what would Israel do? The first objective would be to eliminate as many of the missiles and other armaments held by Hezballah as possible. One can be assured that the IDF has been provided with the location of the vast majority of these armaments. The only question then would be how much damage Hezballah could inflict before the Israeli Air Force destroys the vast majority of their missiles and other armaments. The next question is what would be the cost in aircraft and pilots as many of these missions would necessarily need to strike within Syria where a fair amount of Hezballah provisions and forces are stationed. Such a second front would also necessitate a far faster resolution with less concern for delicacies such as worries to eliminate collateral damage. The air assault on the Hezballah supplies would also need strike into the Baka Valley which has most of the Iranian provided anti-aircraft batteries. This is another difficulty which would need addressing. But there still is one major question, would Israel strike Iran, and if so, how? Should Israel strike Iran, it might be done covertly using commandos tasked with beheading the snake, so to speak. This would be an attempt at performing the one move which would end the Iranian threat to the entirety of the world, regime change through a quick coup. This would be coordinated quickly with those known to be trustworthy in the not so loyal opposition to the Islamic Theocracy currently enslaving Iran. This would also require that strikes be initiated against the IRGC, the Basij Militia, any known enforcement personnel, and all of the ruling elite, and that means all of the ruling elite including those who pretend to be the lesser evils, as lesser evils are still evils. The Iranians have been infamous for their double-dealing and glad-handing while stabbing one in the back. Such an attack would require stealth and strict coordination as once an alarm is sounded, the entire mission would be in danger of failure.

 

Another possibility would be a quick strike at many crucial infrastructure to the ruling Mullahs such as IRGC military bases, nuclear facilities, munitions storage, command and control centers plus whatever other vital centers within Iran. Such a strike would be at the furthest edge of the ability for the Israeli Air Force which would be greatly enhanced if they could avail themselves of a closer airfield. Such aid would be performed with the utmost secrecy as any Arab nation aiding Israel would face a severe backlash from their people even against Iran. There is this sensitivity about Muslim assisting others against other Muslims. Still, there are a few airbases which could be utilized and the blame be thrown onto the United States, and President Trump may have been elected just for such a purpose, not by the American people but by, how should we word this, the fates? The one item that is obvious is that had Hillary Clinton won the last American Presidential Elections, Iran would have had a free hand to complete their plans and taken a stranglehold of the entirety of the Middle East. There would even be the possibility that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and even Jordan might have fallen to the Mullahs and Israel would be entirely surrounded. Unfortunately, there is still one piece of low hanging fruit which the Iranians might be able to pluck off the Middle East fig tree, the Palestinian authority and PLO. This would be difficult as long as Mahmoud Abbas remains their leader but should he fall, then it would very much depend on what ensued. Should Iran gain control over the PLO and Palestinian Authority, it would mean that Hamas and Islamic Jihad would be on the Israel eastern boundary and hold a fair amount of the higher ground. This would prove to be quite unhealthy to Israel and could not be permitted to stand. Under such conditions, Israel would have no other choice but to annex the entirety of the Shomron and remove anything related to the PLO, Hamas, Islamic Jihad or other Islamist entities. This would require being executed quickly, efficiently and with little concern for world opinion. We have to face one thing, when there is a knife at your throat, world opinion is meaningless and removing the threat is your only concern.

 

Concluding, we can pray that the Gaza front quiets and the Gazans who are participating tire of the uselessness of their actions. We might even be gifted with regime change in Gaza, Iran and that the Kurds prove victorious on both fronts and declare their own nations with President Trump visiting within the month of their doing so to move the American Embassy to their capital city of their democratic governance. Do we dare wish for Erdogan not win the upcoming Turkish elections, fat chance there. May Jordan and the Palestinian Arabs reach an accord allowing them to be Jordanian citizens and have the choice of relocating to Jordan, for which Jordan and they would be rewarded, or remaining under Israeli law as resident aliens allowing Israel to finally re-achieve the Jordan River as her rightful and legal border. Lastly, may the world find health, happiness and plenty for all, relieving all misery and disease.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 17, 2018

Netanyahu Success in Revealing Establishment Europe

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu returned from his European trip with a few nice souvenirs from the gift shop, a hefty trip ticket, receipts, a few renewed memories and little else. His intended trip to Gay Paris, Merry olde London town and unified Berlin was to attempt to pry these leaders into joining United States President Trump by pulling their support from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This was going to be a tough sell as these nations are enriching their otherwise sagging economic outlook with what they believe will be substantial economic trade with Iran. Tiny little Israel, despite the fact of her economy being far greater than her size, does not have the purchasing power presently coming from Iran. The problem is that some of these trade items come under dual use equipment as they are utilized in the nuclear industry as well as in medical and other industries. Special blends of steel and aluminum, magnets and capacitors, strobes and filaments, microprocessors and integrated electronics can be used in various industries such as medical lasers, X-ray machines, MRIs and all forms of special equipment used across numerous industries as well as used in the nuclear industry for everything from reactors for power to nuclear warheads for power projection. This is what makes many forms of trade with Iran so potentially precarious.

 

The promise of good relations and a new market was the sole concern for the three M’s, Merkel, Macron and May. The rulers of France, Germany and Britain gave Netanyahu a warm and fuzzy cold shoulder. They refused to advise any changes to the JCPOA and definitely refused to withdraw from the agreement. Their claim was that their nations had given their word in good faith and to break their word was unthinkable. Really? Telling Israel that France, Germany and Britain were seriously concerned about their word being their bond was brazen audacity. We would try to count the times and ways that these three nations have reneged on promises to Israel and to the Jewish People but doubt such is really necessary. But Prime Minister Netanyahu should have known this before leaving which leaves one wondering why he even bothered to try other than to placate the left and be able to at least claim he gave it an effort. The trip may have been to inoculate himself from just another pointless politically motivated attack for pushing Europe away when, according to the critics, the European acceptance is necessary if Israel expects to have a future. Well, that is a nice concept providing you are backwards looking. The truth is that the future for Israel economically, politically, and societally is not looking to Europe and the past but to the future and upcoming nations such as India, China and the working democratic, free-enterprise nations in Africa and South America. But when there are those seeking to attack you, they will blame Netanyahu for the rejection by France, Germany and Britain but had he not approached them he would have been criticized for not going. It is the old you can fail by trying or fail by not trying, either way your failure will be attacked.

 

Israel Willingly Reaching Out to the World

Israel Willingly Reaching Out to the World

 

The reality is that politically France, Germany and Britain wish Israel, and by Israel the Jewish People, would simply be overrun and removed from their consciences. They blame the Jews for surviving the persecution heaped upon them by Christians and the Greeks and Romans before Nazi Germany almost succeeded in Europe. These leaders will make nice statements and even provide security after each attack, but they believe that their future is to adapt and make their Islamic immigrants become good Europeans. The more likely result will be the Europeans with become nice Dhimmis in an Islamic centric society likely within the first half of this century or by the end at the longest. Imagine Britain under Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, France under Union for a Popular Movement leader Jean-François Copé or Germany under Alliance 90/The Greens Party leader Annalena Baerbock, all heavily pro-immigrant parties and candidates who see the future of Europe as reaching a working alliance with a large percentage of Muslim immigrants welcomed into the nation to replace the numbers of youth not being birthed by native Europeans. Germany (below 1.5 children per woman), France (hovering around 2.0 children per woman) and Britain (approximately 1.9 children per woman) all have reproductive rates below the 2.2 children per woman required to simply have replacement rate. This has been the plaguing problem, with the only reason that these rates are increasing is due to the high birth rates by incoming immigrants, thus since the early 1970’s Europe has been looking at a disappearing native population. This changing demographic has brought on a backlash of anti-immigrant political demographic which has been latched onto by the far right parties. The futures of the nations of Western Europe are being wagered on building their new nation largely upon immigrant populations. This will take them politically further and further from Israel politically and in policy. Israel need accept this reality and come to the realization that though Europe provides markets in the here and now, the future will not be in Europe, at least not in Western Europe. Israel would be better served to work with the former Warsaw Pact nations, assisting them in modernization and build relations with that sphere.

 

Israel has much to offer any nation in developments and new discoveries. These will produce trade relations with every nation willing to trade. As for political alliances, Israel should not be the beggar but rather offer free trade with those nations which whom we can have strong political relations and a shared political outlook. Israel should build relations with nations who are willing to be cooperative and not constantly joining those in the United Nations General Assembly and other institutions of the United Nations condemning Israel in a near constant basis. Israel should announce that her trade barriers would be lowered for those who support Israel and would be raised on those who choose not to defend Israel from undue slanders and denunciations within world bodies. Israel need stop going from nation to nation with their hands out begging for favors. Israel need simply take care of Israel and deal with favor with those who decide they wish to join Israel into the future. Those who desire or act to the detriment of Israel, well, who needs those who show Israel no favor. Every nation has the right to deal with those who befriend them and to avoid interactions with those who do not. Israel, as most nations will do, should trade with those willing to trade unless a nation is amongst those who denounce Israel at every turn. Israel need go forward by building alliances with nations willing to stand with Israel and move slowly but surely away from any which repeatedly join in denouncing Israel. Israel should not expect any nation to bend or act against their economic future to please Israel but on the other hand, Israel need not assist those nations who choose to work with those who threaten Israel as nations we cannot count amongst our allies. Israel should work with allies made and leave the others as neutral unless they prove otherwise, and then they should be shunned.

 

Israel cannot expect anybody to respect Israel more than Israel does herself. This is another lesson which the political class need learn and learn fast. If Israel acts as if she is unsure of what is rightfully hers, then how can Israel expect others to be more assured of such than is she? That is illogical at the start. The initial step in this strengthening of Israel and her stand within the community of nations is to act with assured firmness. Step one is to annex all of Area C from the Oslo Accords in which Area C was left under total Israeli control. The existing Palestinian Arabs who are residing within Area C are doing so illegally under the Oslo Accords. They should be required to sign a non-belligerence agreement signifying that they hold no support for terrorism and no ill will towards Israel and accept residing under Israeli Law. In exchange, they will be permitted to remain as legal alien residents. Those who refuse should be offered reasonable remuneration for their property and allowed to move into Area A or Area B. Once the screaming has dimmed to a dull roar, Israel should invite Mahmoud Abbas to sit down a make peace or lose Area B. We expect that he would balk and instead run immediately to the European Union and United Nations and get as many denunciations of Israel for seeking such a meeting under dire threat. Following such a response by political attack and attempted political ostracization, Israel should simply annex Area B and offer the Palestinian Arabs residing there the same option as those from Area C. Finally, the same procedure should be exercised with Area A, the world should expect the same result, and in the end, we could send Mahmoud Abbas to live in Paris with as many of the leadership as possible with the rest being allowed to leave for whichever Muslim nations will have them. Once Israel has established her eastern border as the firmly and originally promised Jordan River, she can move forward acting as if the world has finally come to grips with its original promises. Yes, there will be a period of adjustment and France, Germany and Britain will be generally put out, but sometimes nations need to do what they need to do. Israel does not exist to make the French, German or British people and governments happy, she exists to be the Jewish State and take whatever steps are necessary for her own future and survival. The façade of a peace process has gone on long enough and it is time to settle things and bring it all to an end. The proper end would be and should be that Israel is entitled to every inch of the lands promised her by the Mandate, by the League of Nations, by the Allied Powers of World War I (it is a very old promise) and by the United Nations who promised as much in Article 80 of their Charter. That is the reality and there really should be little if any argument about this. The Europeans and their World War I allies are aware of the promises, as is the Arab League and every Arab and Muslim nation. It is inscribed indelibly in the San Remo Conference, Treaty of Sèvres, the Mandate Agreements and numerous other places, thus ignorance really has to be willingly adopted. The time has long passed for the grievance mongers to be rejected and sent upon their way into the dustbin of history and Israel to take her place as a nation without question. Those who wish to recognize her may and those with problems may have their problems, these problematic countries should not act as an excuse to deny Israel her rightful boundaries. There were promises, an Arab state was already carved from 78% of the British Mandate, and there is no agreement that a second Arab state followed by a third and a fourth until all the Jews reside in a single building in Tel Aviv is required. The time has come to end the ruse and reveal it for what it is, the dream of politicians around the world to step-by-step disassemble the Jewish State and bring the life of the Jewish People to an end where they become a scattered few who live at the kindness of others. Never Again! That phrase should become the negotiating slogan as Israel takes that which is hers and makes it final. Never Again means that we will take the interlopers injecting their politics to Israeli detriment no longer. That time has arrived and it will not take much longer before Israeli politics catch up and this becomes a reality. Prepare for this and prepare your politics for this as the end of the ruse is coming.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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