Beyond the Cusp

April 4, 2015

Would You Trust Iran This Much?

 

The first number to jump up has been the six-thousand centrifuges the Iranians will be permitted to retain in active service, a far cry from the five to fifteen hundred centrifuge numbers originally floated by the State Department. The claims that the six-thousand centrifuges is a reduction of over two-thirds of the Iranian total of nineteen thousand centrifuges is a technically accurate statement, the Iranians had seldom had over ten-thousand centrifuges used at any given moment in time thus the reality is that the Iranians are merely cutting the number of operable centrifuges by approximately one-third, not two-thirds. As we noted yesterday, all of the restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program will expire in ten to twenty years and none of the restrictions are to be permanent in nature. This means that even should the Iranians obey every last restriction with no cheating, then they will be back in business inside of twelve years and well on their way to having a breakout point of merely weeks assuming the centrifuges they will be reinstalling are their present day best and not some improved newer version centrifuges. Then there is the point that once there has been a deal reached that the Iranian nuclear programs will have probably attained the greatest and most important item possible from the talks, the formal recognition by the western world and the United Nations of their right to enrich uranium and to possess a fully functioning nuclear program. And all of this depends on the program and talks not exploding again and everything going back to square one.

 

One might ask what the rest of the world got out of the talks and into the framework as it is fairly obvious that the Iranians got to retain a large percentage of their enrichment mechanisms and will not be burdened by a permanent restriction of their program. The most obvious item is that the Iranians will presumably be using their least advanced centrifuges and will not be upgrading their capabilities anytime in the immediate future. There will be what appears to be, on paper at least, a firm and significant inspection program in place. And it appears that Iran’s breakout point was lengthened and their stockpiles of enriched uranium reduced. Still, we would not be entirely truthful if we did not note the one thing that struck us was the point that some have made is that this inspection routine appears to be similar in nature to the kind of inspection routine that one would often find coming up as the answer to such a posed problem of inspecting a nuclear program in a college setting where students were tasked with addressing the concerns of a national nuclear program. Anything which sounds similar to the kind of answer often found on a college campus as the response to an assignment strikes us as potentially being very suspect and probably not that sophisticated. In theory the size of the amount of the Iranian stockpiles will be significantly reduced though the fact that such will be accomplished by turning them over to the Russians leaves us less than ecstatic. And finally, the breakout point will theoretically be more considerable than it currently exists. And what is likely to be the greatest risk to the rest of the world is that all the gains made depend on Iranian honesty and their not reneging on any part of the deal as they have done numerous times already. The Iranians have often claimed they were unaware of the terminology used in the phrasing and thus the necessity for that area to be rehashed out just to get back to where there had been cautious agreement hours earlier.

 

Even if everything is a settled as it seems, there are still any number of things left to be thrashed about until some semblance of order is attained. The accusations made by Iranian Chief Negotiator and Foreign Minister Zarif referring to the State Department fact sheet which was released have been somewhat disheartening. Mr. Zarif was quoted as stating, “The solutions are good for all, as they stand. There is no need to spin using ‘fact sheets’ so early on.” Mr. Zarif has further pointed out, “We’ll continue enriching, we won’t close any facilities…all UN and US sanctions will be terminated.” Additionally there appears to be little reference to having the Iranians answer the serious questions the IAEA inspectors have over previous military working applications of their research. This has been something pretty much ignored by the talks but which the IAEA appear to place significantly greater importance upon. Then there is the case of what potential ramifications might befall Iran should they transgress against any agreement once it has been reached? As things currently sit it would require taking their supposed transgression before the United Nations Security Council and gaining the reapplications of sanction from at a minimum of nine members and at the same time avoiding any veto from any of the permanent Security Council members which include the United States, France, Britain, China and Russia. What could potentially go wrong? I mean there is no possibility of either Russia or China using their veto power to shield their ally from any difficulties or ramifications to their actions, right?

 

Then there is the one person who has made it his defining point to reveal any problems with the agreements as they stand. No, we did not mean me, we mean Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The Prime Minister missed little time before pointing out how he feels concerning the current framework agreement as being “detached from reality” and “possibly even worse than we had previously thought” amongst other denunciations of the framework agreement. And this time the Prime Minister is far from standing alone as most of the Israeli political leaders even including the Prime Minister’s leading adversaries, Yitzhak Hertzog and Tzipi Livni having also come out and denounced the agreement. Also making such comments was Yair Lapid, another usual critic of Netanyahu in the past. The general coconscious amongst Israeli leadership can be readily summed up with two words, “”historic mistake;” despite what Obama asserted, “I am convinced that if this framework leads to a final comprehensive deal it will make our country, our allies and our world safer,” and additionally insisting that despite criticisms the agreement would effectively cut off any options for Iran to build a nuclear bomb. This did little to silence critics of the deal in Israel where Cabinet Ministers met and they and other officials made statements including these, “If an agreement is reached on the basis of this framework, it is an historic mistake which will make the world far more dangerous,” and “It is a bad framework which will lead to a bad and dangerous agreement. The framework gives international legitimacy to Iran’s nuclear program, the only aim of which is to produce a nuclear bomb,” as well as this definitive statement from Prime Minister Netanyahu, “A deal based on this framework would threaten the survival of Israel. Just two days ago, Iran said that ‘the destruction of Israel is non-negotiable,’ and in these fateful days Iran is accelerating the arming of its terror proxies to attack Israel. This deal would legitimize Iran’s nuclear program, bolster Iran’s economy, and increase Iran’s aggression and terror throughout the Middle East and beyond. Such a deal would not block Iran’s path to the bomb. It would pave it. It would increase the risks of nuclear proliferation in the region and the risks of a horrific war. The alternative is standing firm and increasing the pressure on Iran until a better deal is achieved.” About all we could add to this most puissant commentary from the Prime Minister might be to ask that the Prime Minister, “Tell us how you really feel and don’t hold back on our account.” And if I may, allow me to ask one last set of questions, could somebody please tell me who will be the first to launch, at whom will they be launching, how many will end up launching in the ensuing four or five days of what will very briefly be called the Terminal War before the world returns to the stone age, and when mankind again becomes interested in their history, how will they refer to the large areas of shocked quartz and vitrification of sands into glass mingled with remains of cities and lastly, how will they explain the remaining megastructures as having been built by stone age man without modern tools?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 1, 2015

P5+1 and Iran Six Month Working Nuclear Agreement

Filed under: Administration,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,Benyamin Netanyahu,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Britain,Cabinet,China,Civilization,Conflict Avoidnce,Congress,Coverup,Ditherer in Chief,Ease Sanctions,Economic Sanctions,Egypt,Elections,EMP Device,Eugenics,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Union,Executive Order,Fadjr,Fordo,France,Germany,Government,Hamas,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,Hezballah,History,Hudna,Ineffective Sanctions,International Politics,Intifada,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps,Iraq,IRGC,ISIS,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic State,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jihad,John Kerry,Leftist Pressures,Mainstream Media,Media,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Netanyahu,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,P5+1,Parchin,Peace Process,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,Qom,Quran,Remove Sanctions,Russia,Russian Pressure,Sanctions,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Senate,Senate,Sharia,Shiite,Sunni,Supreme Leader,Syria,Taqiyya,The Twelfth Imam,Tourism,Trade,Turkey,United Nations Presures,United States,Uranium Enrichment,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,World Without Zionism or America,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:01 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

While rummaging through the news online, in my e-mails and the various other eye-straining sources which have taken near complete control of what is otherwise a retirement in heaven I came across, much to my surprise, and transcript from CNN reputing to be of the soon to be completed next step in the Iran nuclear program negotiations with the P5+1. What is perhaps the biggest surprise was the qualifier that this agreement is only good for the next six months beyond its signing date by which time a fully flushed out agreement is expected to be ready to present for the final agreement signing ceremony. I am not entirely sure if this makes our former prediction that there would not be another extension of the negotiations as the parties are not calling this an extension though it really feels a lot like the former six month extensions even if this presents an original agreement framework which they claim requires some additional tweaks, definitions, additions and alterations. There are plenty of mentions of which sanctions will be terminated, what funds which will be released, what items shall be placed beyond the influences or hands of the world even should the talks collapse before the final completed agreement is molded, twisted, mutilated and otherwise tortured into existence. Now for the spoiler but I am afraid this is necessary, there is one particular stipulation in this agreement which should send chills up and down any concerned individual’s spine as it sets up a situation which is completely unconscionable for any United States President or any of the President’s advisors, Cabinet Secretaries or other Administrations personnel from remaining a member of the government of any United States President who would approve and sign such a stipulation. Here is that singular stipulation.

“The U.S. Administration, acting consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Congress, will refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.”

With such a restriction in place there is no longer anything for the Iranians to fear henceforth into the future even should the supposed fleshed out version will never be produced as this extends complete immunity into the future without any mitigating factor or exception into perpetuity as far as we can tell. This sentence being included is such an insult to the Congress that any President agreeing to its inclusion and or Secretary of State, negotiating team member or advisors of the President or Secretary of State not demanding this be removed or they will remove themselves from their service in this shameful Administration are displaying a contemptible disrespect to the Congress and the American people. But anyone who has followed this fiasco from its inception under the watchful eye of President Obama has likely realized long ago that the main principle of the negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran, especially since President Obama and his Secretary of State and State Department took command to direct the negotiations the apparent aim has been to drag the negotiations out while protecting Iran from any military option being implemented against their nuclear sites even releasing confidential communications informing the White House of intent to mount a military resolution to prevent Iran attaining breakout conditions or worse, actual nuclear weapons production, only to have their plans or preparations leaked to the media often embarrassing those allied to take such measures and destroying their plans forcing the cancellation of such previously secret preparations and alliances. This stipulation in the agreement being proffered will permanently remove the United States from any efforts to prevent Iran from reaching the breakout point to industrial production of nuclear weapons allowing their building a nuclear arsenal.

 

Much of the remainder of what I interpreted from my reading it once through was that where the United States and likely the rest of the western world which relies on the United States in most military matters and would be incapable for launching a preemptive strike completely on their own will now face an Iranian enrichment industry which will only be restricted from full industrial uranium enrichment will face a United States handcuffed from taking meaningful actions. In return for the United States handcuffing itself Iran has promised to restrict their nuclear program and for the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) to inspect and verify that the Iranians remain committed to and restricted by their promises demanded from this framework, and remember it is actually just that, a framework. Like a framework of a house, skyscraper, bridge, or any construction, there are gaping spaces throughout the structure which allow for things to pass through, in, out and around without much resistance or impediments. The one item we all can be completely assured about is that Iran will test and utilize every last gap in the framework to get around limitations and discomforts which might impinge on their attaining sufficient amounts of unaccounted for LEU (low enriched uranium) which would provide them with the starter uranium to produce as many as a dozen nuclear devices within six to nine months as long as they are careful and plan the times for inspections and provide the right formulas and predicted yields to the IAEA thus permitting their skimming off of a relatively significant amount of LEU over the period of a year or two.

 

Many believe that the IAEA inspections are very strict and intense thus making cheating nearly impossible. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The IAEA inspectors rely on the nation they are assigned to inspect to provide then with the information about their operations in enriching uranium including the levels intended, the amounts of ore will be used to produce yellowcake (uranium hexafluoride UF6), how much additional yellowcake they will import and the expected yields from their enrichment. To give an idea of how far off the predictions can be, in 2009 Iran “miscalculated” in their reports to the IAEA which underestimated their production and actually over-producing their estimates by over thirty percent. Imagine how quickly a clandestine series of cascaded centrifuges stashed in an underground hidden location that Iran could be producing nuclear weapons while appearing for intents and purposes to be honestly keeping all of their promises and nobody would be the wiser until time had run out and Iran has their nuclear arsenal and joined the nuclear club. There have been reports that the most recent series of centrifuges Iran is producing themselves are so far productive and superior to their earlier centrifuges that they are now capable of taking even LEU at five percent can be enriched to weapons grade in a manner similar to what they used to be capable of performing only with twenty-percent enriched uranium previously. The other main item that needs to be spread is that this agreement only is enforceable for six months and should no further deal be patched together it will likely mean the end of negotiations without any deal, the end to IAEA inspections, the termination of any Iranian cooperation and Iran attaining breakout nuclear capabilities within the ensuing year to year and a half. As horrific as such a predicament might be the ensuing consequences would be unthinkable.

 

The immediate consequences to an Iranian nuclear bomb would be daunting enough as it would make the many allied terror groups such as Hezballah, Hamas and other such entities mostly under the indirect control of the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) and span the globe come under the nuclear umbrella from Iran and thus having free hands to spread terror attacks without worry. The long-range ramification would be the immediate nuclear arms race across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt leading the charge. There would be pressures in Israel to reinitiate their nuclear program, assuming they ever had one which they have never officially admitted. Eventually the nuclear arms race in MENA would spread to the nations of Europe and South America as well as potentially the remainder of Africa thus tearing so many holes in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Member nations would be announcing their intent to leave the treaty and many unlikely to even wait the prescribed period before launching full-speed into producing nuclear weapons. They would drop faster than the leaves of autumn caught by the winds of a hurricane drop from their trees, and with a similar speed are heading towards nuclear weapons. Imagine a world where every border dispute, every insulted leader, every old rivalry or almost any slight or offence setting off a standoff and posturing between two recently nuclear armed nations who might not reflect sufficiently on the consequences of using nuclear weapons or expecting that their first strike would sufficiently harm their adversary that they would be incapable of making a response, an underestimation of the desire for revenge more than likely. This agreement could very well be regarded by history as the jumping off point which led the whole world within the most minute of distances from entering a post-apocalyptic world as depicted in too many movies. Read the agreement and let us know where you feel it may lead and what should be done and by whom, it might prove interesting. Below is the framework, framework, I am beginning to hate that word.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

 

This transcript c/o CNN online.

Geneva, 24 November 2013

Joint Plan of Action

Preamble

The goal for these negotiations is to reach a mutually-agreed long-term comprehensive solution that would ensure Iran’s nuclear programme will be exclusively peaceful. Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek or develop any nuclear weapons. This comprehensive solution would build on these initial measures and result in a final step for a period to be agreed upon and the resolution of concerns. This comprehensive solution would enable Iran to fully enjoy its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the relevant articles of the NPT in conformity with its obligations therein. This comprehensive solution would involve a mutually defined enrichment programme with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the peaceful nature of the programme. This comprehensive solution would constitute an integrated whole where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. This comprehensive solution would involve a reciprocal, step-by-step process, and would produce the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions, as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme.

There would be additional steps in between the initial measures and the final step, including, among other things, addressing the UN Security Council resolutions, with a view toward bringing to a satisfactory conclusion the UN Security Council’s consideration of this matter. The E3+3 and Iran will be responsible for conclusion and implementation of mutual near-term measures and the comprehensive solution in good faith. A Joint Commission of E3/EU+3 and Iran will be established to monitor the implementation of the near-term measures and address issues that may arise, with the IAEA responsible for verification of nuclear-related measures. The Joint Commission will work with the IAEA to facilitate resolution of past and present issues of concern.

Elements of a first step

The first step would be time-bound, with a duration of 6 months, and renewable by mutual consent, during which all parties will work to maintain a constructive atmosphere for negotiations in good faith.
Iran would undertake the following voluntary measures:

  • • From the existing uranium enriched to 20%, retain half as working stock of 20% oxide for fabrication of fuel for the TRR. Dilute the remaining 20% UF6 to no more than 5%. No reconversion line.
    • Iran announces that it will not enrich uranium over 5% for the duration of the 6 months.
    • Iran announces that it will not make any further advances of its activities at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant , Fordow or the Arak reactor designated by the IAEA as IR-40.•
    • Beginning when the line for conversion of UF6 enriched up to 5% to UO2 is ready, Iran has decided to convert to oxide UF6 newly enriched up to 5% during the 6 month period, as provided in the operational schedule of the conversion plant declared to the IAEA.•
    • No new locations for the enrichment.
    • Iran will continue its safeguarded R&D practices, including its current enrichment R&D practices, which are not designed for accumulation of the enriched uranium.
    • No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.
    • Enhanced monitoring:o Provision of specified information to the IAEA, including information on Iran’s plans for nuclear facilities, a description of each building on each nuclear site, a description of the scale of operations for each location engaged in specified nuclear activities, information on uranium mines and mills, and information on source material. This information would be provided within three months of the adoption of these measures.
    o Submission of an updated DIQ for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40, to the IAEA.
    o Steps to agree with the IAEA on conclusion of the Safeguards Approach for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40. Daily IAEA inspector access when inspectors are not present for the purpose of Design Information Verification, Interim Inventory Verification, Physical Inventory Verification, and unannounced inspections, for the purpose of access to offline surveillance records, at Fordow and Natanz.
    o IAEA inspector managed access to:
     centrifuge assembly workshops ;
     centrifuge rotor production workshops and storage facilities; and,
     uranium mines and mills.

    In return, the E3/EU+3 would undertake the following voluntary measures:
  •  Pause efforts to further reduce Iran’s crude oil sales, enabling Iran’s current customers to purchase their current average amounts of crude oil. Enable the repatriation of an agreed amount of revenue held abroad. For such oil sales, suspend the EU and U.S. sanctions on associated insurance and transportation services.
     Suspend U.S. and EU sanctions on:
    o Iran’s petrochemical exports, as well as sanctions on associated services.
    o Gold and precious metals, as well as sanctions on associated services.
     Suspend U.S. sanctions on Iran’s auto industry, as well as sanctions on associated services.
     License the supply and installation in Iran of spare parts for safety of flight for Iranian civil aviation and associated services. License safety related inspections and repairs in Iran as well as associated services.
     No new nuclear-related UN Security Council sanctions.
     No new EU nuclear-related sanctions.
     The U.S. Administration, acting consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Congress, will refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.
     Establish a financial channel to facilitate humanitarian trade for Iran’s domestic needs using Iranian oil revenues held abroad. Humanitarian trade would be defined as transactions involving food and agricultural products, medicine, medical devices, and medical expenses incurred abroad. This channel would involve specified foreign banks and non-designated Iranian banks to be defined when establishing the channel.
    o This channel could also enable:
     transactions required to pay Iran’s UN obligations; and,
     direct tuition payments to universities and colleges for Iranian students studying abroad, up to an agreed amount for the six month period.
     Increase the EU authorisation thresholds for transactions for non-sanctioned trade to an agreed amount.

Elements of the final step of a comprehensive solution

The final step of a comprehensive solution, which the parties aim to conclude negotiating and commence implementing no more than one year after the adoption of this document, would:

  •  Have a specified long-term duration to be agreed upon.
     Reflect the rights and obligations of parties to the NPT and IAEA SafeguardsAgreements.
     Comprehensively lift UN Security Council, multilateral and national nuclear-related sanctions, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy, on a schedule to be agreed upon.
     Involve a mutually defined enrichment programme with mutually agreed parameters consistent with practical needs, with agreed limits on scope and level of enrichment activities, capacity, where it is carried out, and stocks of enriched uranium, for a period to be agreed upon.
     Fully resolve concerns related to the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40. No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.
     Fully implement the agreed transparency measures and enhanced monitoring. Ratify and implement the Additional Protocol, consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Majlis (Iranian parliament).
     Include international civil nuclear cooperation, including among others, on acquiring modern light water power and research reactors and associated equipment, and the supply of modern nuclear fuel as well as agreed R&D practices.
    Following successful implementation of the final step of the comprehensive solution for its full duration, the Iranian nuclear programme will be treated in the same manner as that of any non-nuclear weapon state party to the NPT.

____________________________________________________

 

i) Namely, during the 6 months, Iran will not feed UF6 into the centrifuges installed but not enriching uranium. Not install additional centrifuges. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.

ii) At Fordow, no further enrichment over 5% at 4 cascades now enriching uranium, and not increase enrichment capacity. Not feed UF6 into the other 12 cascades, which would remain in a non-operative state. No interconnections between cascades. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.

iii) Iran announces on concerns related to the construction of the reactor at Arak that for 6 months it will not commission the reactor or transfer fuel or heavy water to the reactor site and will not test additional fuel or produce more fuel for the reactor or install remaining components.

iv) Consistent with its plans, Iran’s centrifuge production during the 6 months will be dedicated to replace damaged machines.

v) “Sanctions on associated services” means any service, such as insurance, transportation, or financial, subject to the underlying U.S. or EU sanctions applicable, insofar as each service is related to the underlying sanction and required to facilitate the desired transactions. These services could involve any non-designated Iranian entities.

vi) Sanctions relief could involve any non-designated Iranian airlines as well as Iran Air.

vii) With respect to the final step and any steps in between, the standard principle that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” applies.

 

 

November 28, 2014

This Will Likely be the Final Extension With Iran

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,1967 Borders,Administration,Al-Quds Force,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Apocalypse,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Assembly of Experts,Ayatollah,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollahs,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Britain,Cabinet,Catherine Ashton,China,Civilization,Conflict Avoidnce,Domestic NGOs,Ease Sanctions,Economic Sanctions,Egypt,EMP Attack,Equal Responsibility,Equal Rights,Equality,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Fadjr,Federica Mogherini,Fordo,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,France,German Pressure,Germany,Government,Green Line,Hamas,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,Hezballah,History,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Pressure,IRGC,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jihad,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Libya,Meaning of Peace,Missile Research,Missile Test Launch,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Muslim World,Myth,Netanyahu,North Korea,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Research,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons Test,Oppression,P5+1,Parchin,Persians,Plutonium Production,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,Qom,Quran,Remove Sanctions,Russia,Russian Pressure,Sanctions,Saudi Arabia,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Scientific Research,Secular Interests,Sharia,Shiite,Sunni,Supreme Leader,Syria,Taqiyya,Terror,Threat of War,Turkey,United Arab Emirates,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,Uranium Enrichment,War Threat,Warhead Development,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,World War III,World Without Zionism or America — qwertster @ 3:19 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

The last set of negotiation between the P5+1 (United States, Britain, China, Russia, France and Germany) with Iran ended on Monday without them reaching any agreement and the setting of another deadline for seven months hence. That deadline is meaningless as was very probably the past deadline which just expired as Iran has been holding joint developmental programs on their rocket and missile technology as well as nuclear weapons technology over the last two decades. The bad news is there will probably not be any meaningful future negotiations as before the seven month deadline is reached the Iranians will not only have established a nuclear weapons program but have already produced a number of weapons making them a bonafide nuclear weapons power and quite possibly capable and producing miniature warheads just as has become acknowledged fact for the North Koreans. This will allow the Iranians to mount their nuclear weaponry atop their ballistic missiles which already are capable of reaching much of Europe and most of the United States if permitted to stage their nuclear missiles in Venezuela, Nicaragua or Cuba, the first two of which have already signed agreements with Iran permitting their doing exactly that staging. Even more frightening is that Iran has practiced and proven to have the ability to launch ballistic missiles with close to a two-thousand mile range from onboard merchant ships similar to the North Korean flagged ship which was found to contain just such a missile while traversing the Panama Canal. Where once it becomes known that the Iranians have developed and been producing nuclear warheads there will be many who will rush to accuse President Obama and his administration of falling down on the job and failing utterly in preventing the Iranians from reaching breakout point and actually begin producing nuclear weapons., the reality is that there is more than sufficient blame to go around as these negotiations have been progressing for almost twenty years and none of the American Presidents showed any capability at understanding the facts that they all had been played by the Iranians from the very beginning.

 

Blame is not going to be of any help and will be a simple waste of time and energy. The problem facing the world now is that since the clock cannot be wound back and the ability of Iran to produce deployable nuclear warheads be undone, then steps need to be taken to assure that the ability of Iran for utilizing those warheads is diminished to the point of being made negligible before the Middle East is launched into a nuclear arms race with every nation racing their neighbors trying to maintain sufficient weapons which will presumably attain some strange balance and a very tricky MADD system where Shiite and Sunni nations balance against each other and even intra-Shiite and intra-Sunni nations also balance with each one claiming to have developed sufficient deterrence against all the other new nuclear weapons powers. It can be assumed that Saudi Arabia will receive not only nuclear technology and designs from Pakistan but also an initial set of nuclear warheads potentially already atop ballistic missiles as a repayment for their bankrolling the Pakistani nuclear program after India detonated their first nuclear warhead. Turkey and Egypt likely have sufficient technological expertise to develop their own rudimentary nuclear weapons program with it being simply a matter of time before they also join the nuclear weapons club. Then there are the rest of the oil rich nations who would be capable of investing sufficient funding to attain nuclear weapons technology and build their own arsenals. Then there is the further complication that many of these nations also have ties with nations and terrorist groups who all would be pressuring to be granted a nuclear device with which to resolve some problem or to use to threaten a neighbor such as Syria might want to threaten Turkey or the Sudan might desire a warhead with which to destroy South Sudan and take back any or all of the oilfields which they lost control over. Then there might be desires to threaten Europe or Israel or the Chechens might want to strike Russia and claim innocence as they were not known to have any nuclear devices or the Uyghurs might desire to strike China in much the same manner. Then there is the small matter of Israel and take your pick of who might desire to strike Israel with a nuclear device, especially if they thought they could deflect suspicions onto somebody else. Then there is the idea that Iran has often made known where they desire a world without America or Zionism and as their chant is most often, “Death to America, Death to Israel.” And the small fact that they refer to the United States as the great Satan and Israel as the little Satan, it is obvious that Iran desires to strike the United States as much if not more so that they do Israel. The Iranians also must realize that they would have an easier time striking Israel if the United States had been delivered a decapitating attack first.

 

The only thing more complicated than getting a straight answer from anybody in the Obama White House as to how they were unable to prevent the Iranians from developing and being ready and able to deploy nuclear warheads would be to be able to figure out the resulting rush and development of nuclear weapons and building of arsenals across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) while also predicting whose weapon would be the first actually delivered, at whom it would be targeted, and through which proxy might that strike take place utilizing. The easy prediction is that within eighteen months of Iran testing or declaring their possession of a nuclear device that Saudi Arabia will also be well armed with multiple warheads and it may even take less than a few weeks before they had received their initial shipment of warheads from Pakistan unless Iran is capable of preventing such a transfer from Sunni Pakistan to Sunni Saudi Arabia and the cash cow that Pakistan owes a great debt to Saudi Arabia for underwriting the Pakistani drive to nuclear capabilities and the purchasing of the tools required for the production of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal. The other problem is that once the cat is out of the bag and the Middle East enters into an arms race, the long-standing idea of nuclear nonproliferation will be fatally struck through its heart and die so quickly that there will be insufficient time for the United Nations to call for an emergency meeting, or even for the United Nations to blame Israel, and that is fast. Then there is the one other constant we can expect, and that is when the United Nations does call its meeting to place the blame for the arms race that murdered the nonproliferation treaty, the entire blame will initially be placed on Israel, and after any further investigations are complete, Israel and then the United States will be blamed with the tie breaker going to Israel simply because Prime Minister Netanyahu has been the leader in demanding that force would be required and required earlier rather than later to prevent the Iranians reaching nuclear breakout and actually producing an arsenal. The only question which will not be answered by the end of the next deadline in seven months will be if Iran will have developed, and admitted to having done so, a nuclear weapon. There should be no question that Iran will have attained nuclear breakout and already started to stock a nuclear weapons arsenal before the next deadline and something they have probably been busy building during the time they have been negotiating for the past year or longer. But do not expect anybody from the negotiations let out the truth as the Iranians know they benefit by extending the negotiations for as long as they are able while packing away nuclear warheads and developing intercontinental ballistic missiles and increasing their accuracy and President Obama has placed his legacy on reaching an agreement so that he can claim that he reached the agreement which brought us peace in our times. Let us all hope that peace in our time has far less drastic results as the last time a world leaders exclaimed those words on his return to Britain from Munich. This time the declaration will be made after deplaning from Geneva or Vienna rather than Munich, but does that difference really make a difference? Probably not one iota.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Next Page »

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: