Beyond the Cusp

October 19, 2014

Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei Tweets Nuclear Red Lines

Perhaps Tweeting is the new diplomatic courier for national figures and even the leaders of nations for making their desires, positions and calls for actions known to the world. Maybe the press conference is passé and nobody let me know. I wonder sometimes why I’m almost always the last to know these things. Perhaps it’s because I don’t have a Facebook presence. Anyway, the Ayatollah Khamenei issued his eleven demands in a tweet which was then made into a nice diagram by Mark Langfan which included his eleven red lines for the upcoming talks with the P5+1 (United States, Britain, Russia, France, China plus Germany) which are depicted in the cutest little diagram shown below.

 

Iranian Red Lines for Nuclear Talks

Iranian Red Lines for Nuclear Talks as stated by Ayatollah Khamenei

 

These are the actual demands in an easier to read listing:
1) Nuclear science movement should not come to a halt or even slow down.
2) Iranian Delegation should insist on continuing nuclear research and development.
3) No one has the right to bargain over nuclear achievements and no one will do so.
4) Our delegation should not accept any impositions from the other side.
5) International Atomic Energy Agency should establish normal and non-extraordinary relations with Iran.
6) Officials should have meetings and talks at the level of foreign ministers.
7) Protecting an organization like Fordow which the enemy is not able to destroy and is inaccessible to them.
8) Supplying the final need of the country’s enrichment capacity which is 190 thousand SWUs.
9) Basic needs of the country and some issues like the sanctions should not be tied to the nuclear talks.
10) These talks are only centered on the nuclear issue and not anything else.
11) As long as Americans continue their enmity and their hostile remarks about Iran, interactions with them will bears no practicality.

Information for this article taken from Mark Langfan’s article titled Iran’s Red Line: Centrifuges for 38 A-Bombs Per Year.

 

The demands set forth by Iran’s Supreme Leaders leave little if any doubt what their intentions are, to make as many nuclear warheads as they possibly are capable and to continue their research into making bigger and more powerful nuclear devices with a definite intention of gaining the knowhow to manufacture thermonuclear devices and warehousing sufficient nuclear warheads of varying sizes, multiple warheads, and yields such that they will be prepared at some point in the near future, within the decade, to make a swarm attack with nuclear devices against the United States, the European capitals and largest twenty-five cities and Israel with the intents of laying waste and completely destroying the American and Israeli society and populations and leaving Europe destroyed and rendered back to the Dark Ages. After the Iranians have obliterated the Western world their next move will be to demand that the entirety of Islam surrender and accept Shia Islam as their religion and the Iranian Mullahs and their Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah, as the leadership of all Islam. They will demand the right to rule over the Holy cities of Mecca and Medina and will order that all the holy cities of Shia Islam be placed as the highest holy sites with any Sunni holy sites being rendered to lesser levels of holiness by comparison. The Iranian Mullahs have made no bones about their intention to become the leadership of a pure Islamic Caliphate consisting of a Shia body without any other sect or forms of Islam which might challenge their supremacy. There is nothing terrible about the desires by the Iranians to become the rulers and leaders of what they believe the only true form of Islam, and basically they have achieved this already as they basically are the de facto rulers in Iraq and control Syria and Lebanon outright before the civil war began in Syria and then spilled into Iraq and threatens Lebanon all indirectly resulting from the impetus which resulted from the Arab Spring turned Arab Winter and now becoming rapidly Arab Apocalypse, all of which could be indirectly traced as being tangential to President Obama’s Cairo speech and the policies which led to the United States withdrawal from much of their military locations within Middle East and North Africa nations and supporting the Arab uprisings while not nurturing or even policing the aftermaths.

What is a fear for the future concerning Iran is their desire to force all of Islam to follow their version of Islam or face the sword, as it is stated in the Quran, and then force the rest of the world to also be followers of Islam and by the manner by which they define it or face the sword. What makes their desire for world control is their willingness to go to extremes of destruction against any and every nations, peoples and followers of different faiths that the Iranian leadership has actually stated they are willing to utilize any and all facilities, weapons and other resources and methodologies in their conquest and reordering of the world. What is not surprising is that the majority of the world has either ignored or simply not bothered to listen or care enough to show concern over the Iranian threats. Even those who have noted and stated recognition of the Iranian aims have, for the most part, dismissed these threats as inconsequential or not realizable and thus there is no actual need to address or dedicate any resources or efforts to mitigate the threat. This is most evident in the P5+1 negotiations with Iran which actually could be better defined as negotiations between Iran supported for the most part by Russia and China negotiating with Britain and France who wish to slow if not prevent the Iranian nuclear program. Meanwhile, the United States holds the deciding weight but displays little desire to actually prevent Iran from their development of nuclear weapons in their nuclear program and even appear to be turning a blind eye and only wishing to end these discomforting negotiations which are causing high expectations from many outside concerned nations, Israel being the most vocal and even having carried their concerns long and loud even at the United Nations recently. United States leadership from President Obama to Secretary of State Kerry seem to only wish to be done with the entire responsibility for preventing Iran from producing nuclear weapons to the point of a willingness to simply surrender if making any stand proves to possibly force the negotiations to fail by the deadline of November 24, 2014.

The negotiations are soon to be resumed which likely will be painstakingly tendentious as the United States continues to offer little resistance or make any meaningful input. The world may be once again hanging by the thread relying hopefully that Britain or France take the position of protector of the future and sanity of the world. This is not as far out of bounds as it may first appear as during an earlier session almost a full year ago early in November 2013, Britain was apprehensive and France simply was unaccepting leading to their veto of the agreement put forth by both the Iranians and United States. Both other Western nations suspected the deal was simply ceding too many points and demands to the Iranians. When this occurred was when I realized beyond reasonable doubt that President Obama was not only willing to relent on any and all principles simply to curry favor and appear to be actually finally earning that Nobel Peace Prize. I already knew that President Obama was mostly all about image, winning favor and being accepted as a friend willing to go that extra step, as long as that step was not difficult or requiring any great efforts including standing on principles. We are very likely about to witness another grand surrender once again in November as both President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry see no problems with the Iranians gaining nuclear weapons, period. They have both stated on numerous occasions that they believe that Iran having nuclear weapons would be no different than when the Soviet Union and China gained nuclear weapons capability and the Iranians will be deterred from ever deploying their nuclear weapons by the threat of mutual destruction. They both probably also see an Iranian nuclear weapon arsenal as a balancing against the presumed Israeli nuclear arsenal. They further believe that because any use of a nuclear weapon by terrorists, the weapon could be traced back to the source country which provided the weapon and this would prevent Iran or any other nuclear power from ever arming terrorists with such a weapon. All this trust and faith between the United States administration personnel and the Iranian Mullahs and Ayatollahs is just so warm and fuzzy, what is not to like. Well, other than such things as potential terrorist gaining nuclear weapons and the certainty that Iran becoming a nuclear power will without a doubt result in an arms race throughout the MENA countries (Middle East and North Africa) which will result in Saudi Arabia initially joining the nuclear club followed relatively soon by Turkey and Egypt and then Syria and Lebanon, providing Syria and Lebanon are still functioning nations, and eventually to most of the rest providing this arms race does not trigger the final Biblical Armageddon. Let’s party like it’s the end of the world, it very well might be being setup right now as we watch powerless to press any stop button and without any chance to interject our fears and realize our grandest hopes.

Beyond the Cusp

November 7, 2012

President Obama Reelected

All night long Americans were laser focused on Ohio waiting for the decision to basically announce the eventual winner of the Presidential elections. There will be plenty of blame to pass around though none of the finger-pointing will serve any purpose beyond allowing venting of pent up frustrations. Now all that is left is to make the predictions of what President Obama being reelected means for the United States and the world. Who are the big winners and who will be the big losers will be bandied back and forth. I can safely claim that my vote made absolutely no actual difference as I do not live in one of the states where there was any doubt as to who would win the state’s Electoral College votes. So, what predictions can we foresee resulting from President Obama’s victorious reelection bid?

 

The most obvious result is that the Affordable Health Care Act (Obama Care) will be enacted and everybody will finally fully realize exactly what is in the bill as was promised by then Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi would only happen once the bill was passed. We can expect the House of Representatives to be castigated by the President, Vice President, Democrats in the House of Representatives and Senate, and much of the mainstream media for being obstructionist and confrontational when the Republican majority there does not pass legislation and other parts of the President’s agenda. With the Democrats retaining their majority in the Senate we can expect there to be the same budget standoff as has existed for the past three years and there will likely not be an actual budget passed until after the midterm elections at the earliest if at all for the rest of President Obama’s time in office. The emergency forced budget cuts will very likely be allowed to take effect as there will be no agreement in time to avoid what will prove to be a catastrophic result. These cuts will have critical and possibly devastating effect on the United States military preparedness and abilities. The Supreme Court will be transformed from its current perceived conservative leaning into a much more strongly liberal as President Obama will very likely get to appoint three and possibly four Supreme Court Justices with at least two of the Justices replaced will be from the conservative end of the Court. There is a group of conservatives who will actually gain fiscally despite their steady delivery of doom and gloom, the conservative talk show broadcasters. The economy will likely continue to slowly make meager gains and will be touted as a steady, controlled building under the intelligent and steady leadership and stewardship of President Obama. We can expect a few months of liberal “told you so” bragging from some of the more liberal elites. But what about the expectations abroad?

 

There is a distinct possibility that there will be an attempt to sign on to a treaty which will heavily curtail firearms sales if not also ownership either with the United Nations or with a foreign country likely Mexico which had been the likely intent behind the Fast and Furious fiasco. There is a much higher chance that when the Palestinians seek a declaration recognizing them as a country with the 1949 Armistice Lines (the Green Line also known as the 1967 Lines) as the recognized border through the United Nations that the United States will not apply their veto and instead simply abstain allowing it to pass the Security Council. Should this come to pass, then it can be expected that within the next year or two that the Palestinian Authority will be admitted into the United Nations with full membership as the nation of Palestine. Expect for direct negotiations to be announced with Iran and the United States over the Iranian nuclear program. These negotiations will likely result in an agreement which will allow for Iran to continue to produce fuel for their nuclear reactors and research in exchange for their guarantee that they will not produce any working nuclear weapons and submit to regular inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This will lead to an arms race with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and possibly other Middle East and North African nations and even a distinct probability of other developing nations all pursuing nuclear weapons due to their suspicions that Iran will still work to develop their own and because there will be no honest impediments to prevent the demise of the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty). Israel will face a unified international front opposing any thoughts of attempting to destroy or otherwise impede the Iranian nuclear program and they would have an arms embargo applied should they ignore these warnings and attack Iranian nuclear sites.

 

The Arab Spring, I mean Arab Winter, will expand in the near future with the monarchies being the next targets for replacement with “elected” governments which will simply be the venue utilized to put Islamist governments in place after the governments fall. Turkey will accelerate their slide to fall under Sharia as will Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and any new nations which will fall under Islamic influence. Some of the nations facing such a threat include but are not limited to Kenya, Nigeria, and Mali. Much of Afghanistan will return to Taliban control and Pakistan will come under control of Islamist extremists. Even if Bashir Assad falls, Syria will then come under the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood. Lebanon very well may return to the violence of a civil war once Bashir Assad falls as Hezballah will not give up their control without a fight. Europe will continue to have a growing Muslim influence as their Muslim populations continue to increase. This will be further aggravated by financial difficulties for much of the European Union members which will eventually begin to drag down the nations who will be expected to carry the financial burdens of the entire EU. We could see the EU be dissolved as the financially stable countries refuse to continue to bail out the financially troubled nations, especially as the troubled countries elect governments which refuse to continue austerity measures, especially if riots and lawlessness continues to grow. This might be able to be avoided briefly should President Obama manage to find a method for the United States to assist Germany, France and whomever else are attempting to hold the European Union together. This would lead to another round of Quantitative Easing if the United States has not considerably increased the rate of their economic recovery. What will remain to be seen is whether or not the United States will be able to find a controlled way of siphoning off the large amounts of dollars that have been invented electronically to fund the Quantitative Easing which was used to bail out the different financial difficulties and attempt to soften the downturn of the economy. Failing to find such an avenue will spur steadily increasing inflation which will run a risk of becoming a runaway problem. This will require either raising interest rates, possibly considerably, or raising taxes or some combination of the two. Both of these actions will dampen the recovery which will then put pressure on the government to retreat from these measures. Any way one looks at this it presents a very difficult problem and some amount of fiscal pain will have to be suffered before everything will once again equal out and balance.

 

None of this is to say that reelecting President Obama was a mistake by the American electorate as it was nowhere near guaranteed that Mitt Romney would have presented a necessarily better alternative. A Romney Presidency would have taken a different approach more than likely but until we actually witness how the coming Obama Presidency handles and deals with these vexing problems we cannot definitively answer that question. One thing we can be assured is that there will be endless second guessing over these election results going forward. All the second guessing and what ifs will amount to nothing more than noise. No matter how many times going forward some will say if only or we should have it will not change what actually is and is a waste of time, effort and breath. Instead, those who spend time second guessing would serve everybody far better by attempting to work with what is and forget about what will not be. The choice has been made, the dye cast, the ballots counted (and likely some recounted) and the time for thinking of what else could have been done is passed. Now Americans need to work together with what is and make it be for the best and seek changes should they be your desire at the next election. Working to have President Obama fail hurts the country and should not be something anybody should desire. The course is set and we need to do what we can to guide the Ship of State through what is very likely going to be difficult waters full of jagged rocks, icebergs, and dangerous obstacles that would have menaced whoever won. It was President Obama and he cannot rule alone and will need to compromise and bend at least some amount if he is to reach agreements with the whole of the country. We can only hope for the best and pray we avoid the worst and be prepared to face whichever the future will hold.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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